Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA's "Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" report predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with an average price of $55 per barrel. Supply surplus pressure is the core driver of oil prices, and geopolitical factors may cause short - term rebounds but not significant surges [4] - The domestic PX load is stable this week, and there are maintenance plans in January, with expected supply contraction. The PX processing fee continues to rise. The PTA device has little change, and downstream polyester load is high, but terminal demand is weak. PTA prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [4] - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) operating rate has decreased this week, and the spot price has rebounded from the bottom. High inventory is the core factor suppressing prices. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate widely, and in the long - term, there is a downward expectation [5] - Pure benzene has reduced production due to low profits, and its domestic operation has slightly decreased with high port inventories. Downstream demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Styrene has a low operating rate due to many overhauls, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly with the cost side [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The EIA's "Short - Term Energy Outlook (STEO)" report predicts that global oil inventories will continue to rise in 2026, with an average price of $55 per barrel [4] - The situation in Venezuela is favorable for the geopolitical level, but its oil exports are still normal. There is no new progress in deepening sanctions on the Russian energy sector [4] - Supply surplus pressure is the core driver of oil prices. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term rebounds but not significant surges [4] PX & PTA PX - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.21%, unchanged from last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a 0.15% decrease from last week [8] - The PX - naphtha spread reached a new high of $290 per barrel this year [8] - Zhejiang Petrochemical has a more than one - month maintenance plan for CDU and reforming in January 2026, and PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10% [8] - In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of PX devices at home and abroad is limited, and the PX operation can be stably maintained at a high level. Terminal demand is expected to stabilize and recover. Overall, supply and demand are stable, and PXN is supported. PX prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices [8] PTA - The PTA spot market price this week is 4,617 yuan per ton, a 16 - yuan decrease from last week. The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 73.81%, unchanged from last week [12] - The in - factory inventory days are 3.76 days, a 0.1 - day decrease from last week [12] - In 2026, the domestic PTA capacity is expected to remain stable with no new capacity put into operation [12] - This week's PTA processing fee is 175 yuan per ton, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week. In the long - term, there is a view of inventory accumulation, and the PTA price rebound is limited [12] MEG - The ethylene glycol price has hit a new low this year. The weekly market price is 3,650 yuan per ton, a 4 - yuan decrease from last week [16] - The domestic ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.71%, a 0.24% decrease from last week. The coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61%, a 0.16% increase from last week [16] - The production gross profit is - 1,045 yuan per ton, an 84 - yuan increase from last week [16] - An Inner Mongolia 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device has advanced its maintenance plan, and it is expected to stop until January 9, 2026 [16] - This week, the ethylene glycol port inventory has continued to rise, with the East China port inventory reaching 770,000 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase from last week [16] BZ & EB Pure Benzene - The pure benzene operating rate this week is 74.94%, a 0.17% decrease from last week [26] - The pure benzene port inventory has significantly increased to 260,000 tons, unchanged from last week [26] - Downstream PS, ABS, and EPS operating rates are all decreasing year - on - year. The demand resilience needs further observation [26] Styrene - The styrene operating rate is 69.13%, a 0.84% increase from last week, and BZN is stable at about $115 per ton [26] - Styrene has reduced inventory, with the port inventory at 146,800 tons, a 13,800 - ton decrease from last week, and the East China in - factory inventory at 102,300 tons, a 3,400 - ton decrease from last week [26] Polyester - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry this week is 86.9%, a 0.06% increase from last week, with short - fiber inventory reduction and long - filament inventory accumulation [20] - The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 62.90%, a 0.79% decrease from the previous data [20] - The average terminal weaving order days are 11.07 days, a 0.83 - day decrease from last week; the average terminal weaving finished product inventory level is 26.12 days, a 0.54 - day increase from last week [20] - The demand of downstream industries is gradually weakening, the winter fabric stocking is coming to an end, new orders are significantly reduced, and the spring - summer order placement is hesitant [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost-side support for asphalt has weakened, and the market's rebound momentum remains insufficient. The asphalt market's downside may be limited, but a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,943 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,816 lots, up 6,677 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,841 lots, down 4,034 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [2] - The rebound of crude oil prices has stalled and retraced, weakening the cost-side support for asphalt, and the futures market has been oscillating in a low range. In the spot market, asphalt prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Northwest, Shandong, East China, and South China declined. The overall asphalt fundamentals remain in a weak supply and demand situation, and future terminal demand may decline further with the cooling. The profits of refineries with quotas are relatively attractive, and local supply competition is fierce, suppressing spot prices. As the winter storage demand has not shown signs of large-scale release, market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, rubber prices are expected to weaken; if supply is disrupted, prices may range from 15,000 - 15,500 [1] Ester Industry - PX is expected to be range - bound at high levels in the short term, with a tight supply - demand outlook in the medium term. PTA's TA01 may oscillate between 4,500 - 4,800 in the short term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be range - bound at low levels. Short - fiber prices have limited upward drivers, and bottle - chip prices will follow the cost trend [3] Polyolefin Industry - The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP are under pressure due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has a bearish supply - demand outlook, and short - selling opportunities are recommended after price rebounds. Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is suggested [6] Crude Oil Industry - The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. Short - term support for Brent crude is at $60 per barrel, and geopolitical developments in Russia and Ukraine should be monitored [7] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is under pressure due to high inventories. The current trading logic is "weak reality", and the inventory issue in the 01 contract remains unresolved [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene is expected to have limited rebound space in the short term, and short - selling opportunities are recommended for BZ2603. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and changes in its production facilities and export volume should be monitored [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most rubber spot prices declined on November 21, with the basis of whole milk rubber dropping by 22.50% [1] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1] - **Fundamental Data**: Thailand's and Vietnam's rubber production decreased in September, while India's and China's increased. Tire production and export volume decreased in October [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area and futures warehouse inventories increased, while the outbound rate of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1] Ester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil and naphtha prices declined, while ethylene prices remained stable [3] - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX prices decreased by 1.1% [3] - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA spot and futures prices declined, and the basis was repaired [3] - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices declined, and the basis decreased [3] - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Most polyester product prices and cash flows declined [3] Polyolefin Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices declined, and spreads changed [5] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most polyolefin spot prices declined, and the basis of some products increased [5] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and some operating rates changed [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in some regions declined, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash prices were stable, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and some inventory decreased [6] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas all declined [6] Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices declined, and spreads changed [7] - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Most refined oil prices and spreads declined [7] - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Most refined oil crack spreads declined [7] Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices declined, and the basis increased [9] - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [9] - **Operating Rates**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased, and styrene port inventory decreased. Some operating rates changed [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures prices declined, and spreads changed [12] - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda and PVC supply and demand have certain pressures, and demand is weak [12] - **Inventory**: Some caustic soda and PVC inventories increased or decreased [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending November 7, the total daily coke output of all - sampled independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0968 million tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3422 million tons, a weekly decrease of 21,400 tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 5.19 percentage points to 39.83%, with over 60% of steel mills in a loss state, indicating continued demand pressure for coke. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in each link of the industrial chain decreased this week. As of the latest data on November 7, the total coke inventory in the statistical scope was 8.8705 million tons, a weekly decrease of 129,700 tons. Overall, due to environmental protection restrictions and operational pressure, the supply and demand of coke are weak in the off - season, and the fundamentals lack effective support. The upward driving force mainly comes from coking coal on the cost side, supporting the main coke contract to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in coking coal supply [6][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending November 7, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 738,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared with the previous week and 47,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The total daily coke output of all - sampled independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.0968 million tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending November 7, coking coal accumulated in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain and decreased in the downstream. Among them, the inventory of independent coking plants increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week, the port inventory increased by 141,200 tons week - on - week, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week. Overall, the supply and demand of coking coal both decreased, and the fundamentals are neutral. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectation brought by safety supervision and anti - involution. Attention should be paid to the subsequent production situation of coal mines in the main producing areas [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In October, China imported 4.1737 million tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 426,600 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3%. From January to October, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 38.7623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.0% [9]. - On November 7, the price of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable. The ex - factory price of prime coking clean coal was 1,615 yuan/ton, and that of fat coal was 1,600 yuan/ton, both including cash and tax [10]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,620 | +3.18% | +3.18% | - 4.14% | - 14.29% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,570 | +0.64% | +1.29% | - 3.09% | - 11.30% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,435 | +3.24% | +3.24% | +21.61% | +0.35% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,670 | +0.60% | +0.60% | +12.08% | - 3.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,800 | +3.45% | +3.45% | +17.65% | +5.88% | [11] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,756.5 | - 0.62 | 1,786.0 | 1,750.0 | 17,198 | - 1,212 | 37,429 | - 771 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,270.0 | - 0.97 | 1,294.5 | 1,261.0 | 829,948 | - 85,901 | 638,430 | - 36,173 | [15] Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke inventory, coking coal inventory, domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, which visually show the historical data trends of relevant indicators [16][18][28]. Market Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the weak supply - demand situation of coke in the off - season and the supply - demand double - decline and neutral fundamentals of coking coal, and suggesting attention to the supply changes of coking coal and the production situation of main - producing - area coal mines [35][36].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand. Both PE and PP are in a weak pattern [1][2]. - For PE, high supply, limited demand from downstream sectors like agricultural films, and weakening cost - end support lead to its continued weak trend [2]. - For PP, supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and with weak cost - end support, it will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（-65），PP主力合约收盘价为6491元/吨（-69）；LL华北现货为6800元/吨（-70），LL华东现货为6920元/吨（-30），PP华东现货为6520元/吨（-10）；LL华北基差为-14元/吨（-5），LL华东基差为106元/吨（+35），PP华东基差为29元/吨（+59） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%），PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为247.4元/吨（-25.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 412.6元/吨（-25.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 74.9元/吨（+34.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 69.8元/吨（-62.8），PP进口利润为 - 318.2元/吨（-62.5），PP出口利润为 - 8.1美元/吨（+7.8） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Supply pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and new capacity coming online. Demand is limited, with the growth of agricultural film demand likely to slow down and packaging film demand being weak. The cost - end support is expected to weaken, and it will continue its weak pattern [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand contradiction persists. Supply is in excess due to new device commissioning and the return of previously maintained facilities. Demand support is limited, mainly from low - price rigid - demand restocking. It will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: Reverse arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PE is under pressure due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. High supply, limited demand from sectors like agricultural films, and weak cost - end support lead to continued weak and volatile trends [2]. - PP also faces supply - demand contradictions. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6879元/吨（-9）, PP主力合约收盘价为6560元/吨（-16）. LL华北现货为6870元/吨（-20）, LL华东现货为6950元/吨（-50）, PP华东现货为6530元/吨（-50）. LL华北基差为 - 9元/吨（-11）, LL华东基差为71元/吨（-41）, PP华东基差为 - 30元/吨（-34） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为80.9%（-0.6%）, PP开工率为77.1%（+1.1%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为272.7元/吨（-10.7）, PP油制生产利润为 - 387.3元/吨（-10.7）, PDH制PP生产利润为 - 109.5元/吨（+42.6） [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL进口利润为 - 7.0元/吨（-25.8）, PP进口利润为 - 255.7元/吨（+37.1）, PP出口利润为 - 15.8美元/吨（+0.7） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为49.5%（+2.4%）, PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（-1.3%）, PP下游塑编开工率为44.2%（-0.2%）, PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.2%） [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply - side pressure is high due to reduced maintenance losses of domestic production facilities and the release of new production capacities. Demand growth may slow down, and cost - end support is expected to weaken. PE will continue weak and volatile [2]. - **PP**: Supply - demand contradictions exist. Supply is in excess, demand support is limited, and cost - end support is weak. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: LLDPE is neutral; PP is recommended to be cautiously shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - term**: L01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices; PP01 - 05 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [3]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates an escalation of the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, causing crude oil prices to stop falling and rebound. Polyolefin registered warrants are at a historical high for the same period, suppressing the market, leading to a continuous reverse spread in polyolefin prices. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years. Against the backdrop of supply - side pressure and lackluster demand, polyolefins follow cost - side fluctuations [17][18]. - The predicted trading range for polyethylene (LL2601) this week is between 7200 - 7500, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is between 7000 - 7300. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: There is an expectation of an escalation in the Venezuela geopolitical conflict, causing crude oil prices to rebound. In terms of valuation, the weekly increase in polyethylene is in the order of cost > futures > spot, while for polypropylene, it is futures > spot > cost. Last week, WTI crude oil rose by 0.39%, Brent crude oil by 1.10%, coal prices by 5.83%, methanol fell by - 2.58%, ethylene by - 3.26%, and propylene by - 3.30%, with propane remaining unchanged at 0.00%. Cost - side support still exists [15]. - **Supply - side**: PE capacity utilization is 80.98%, a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease but a 3.90% year - on - year increase and a - 4.39% decrease compared to the five - year average. PP capacity utilization is 75.30%, a - 2.55% week - on - week decrease, a - 0.66% year - on - year decrease, and an - 8.54% decrease compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, polypropylene will face significant production pressure in the fourth quarter [15]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase but a - 10.04% year - on - year decrease. In August, PP imports were 177,400 tons, an 11.15% month - on - month increase and a - 6.18% year - on - year decrease. Import profits are decreasing, with a reduction in PE supplies from North America, easing import - side pressure. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a - 14.48% month - on - month decrease but a 63.54% year - on - year increase. In August, PP exports were 208,200 tons, a - 16.82% month - on - month decrease but a 21.14% year - on - year increase. With the start of Christmas stockpiling, PP exports may remain at a high level year - on - year [16]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 45.00%, a 0.18% week - on - week increase and a 0.11% year - on - year increase. The downstream operating rate of PP is 52.00%, a 0.29% week - on - week increase and a 0.37% year - on - year increase. During the seasonal peak season, downstream demand for polyolefins is weaker than in previous years [16]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 514,600 tons, with a - 2.81% week - on - week reduction and a 2.02% increase compared to the same period last year; PE trader inventory is 50,000 tons, with a - 0.70% week - on - week reduction. PP production enterprise inventory is 638,500 tons, with a - 5.92% week - on - week reduction and a 12.69% increase compared to the same period last year; PP trader inventory is 220,000 tons, with a - 7.80% week - on - week reduction; PP port inventory is 66,800 tons, with a - 1.62% week - on - week reduction. Overall, PP inventory pressure is higher than that of PE [16]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the term structure, prices, basis, spreads, trading volume, open interest, and registered warrants of PE and PP, including the term structure of PE and PP, the prices of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the basis of LLDPE and PP main contracts, the 1 - 5 spreads of LLDPE and PP, the open interest of LLDPE and PP active contracts, and the registered warrants of LLDPE and PP contracts. It also mentions that South Korea's ethylene plant clearance policy may boost the long - term strengthening of the LL - PP spread [31][63]. 3.3 Cost - side - The report provides a series of charts showing the prices of various raw materials and related indicators, such as the prices of PE and PP in the spot and futures markets and their costs, WTI crude oil prices, thermal coal prices, naphtha prices, propane prices, gasoline crack spreads, P/N/C prices, LPG registered warrants, domestic LPG spot and futures prices and basis, Saudi CP prices, Far East FEI prices, domestic LPG supply - side composition, China's LPG production, China's crude oil processing volume, China's major refinery capacity utilization rate and gross profit, domestic LPG import dependence, China's LPG import source proportion, South China's LPG import profit, LPG arrival volume, China's LPG import volume, Panama Canal water level, Gatun Lake water level, LPG freight rates from the US and the Middle East to the Far East, LPG refinery and port storage ratios, China's LPG demand proportion, China's LPG chemical demand proportion, China's olefin LPG actual demand, MTBE and PDH production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, alkylation oil production gross profit, capacity utilization rate and output, US propane prices, production, inventory, exports, and product supply [73]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Composition**: The raw materials for PE production are mainly oil - based (80.00%), followed by light hydrocarbon (12.00%), coal (5.00%), methanol (2.00%), and purchased ethylene (1.00%) [139]. - **Capacity and Production**: The report shows the annual changes in PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate. In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation [143][145]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The current PE capacity utilization rate is 80.98%, with a - 1.91% week - on - week decrease. The report also provides information on PE maintenance plans and the resulting production losses [15][147].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a state of high operation and weak demand, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The fundamentals of PVC remain weak, and there may be a correction after a phased rebound in the market. Technically, for V2601, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average around 4691 and the pressure of the 20 - day moving average around 4836 [3]. - This week, a large number of PVC devices are set to restart, and the impact of newly shut - down devices is limited. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to return to a high level. With fewer maintenance devices and new production capacity coming online in October, the supply pressure is relatively high [3]. - The real estate market remains weak, and product orders are poor. Downstream is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines [3]. - The cost of the calcium carbide process has increased, while that of the ethylene process has decreased. Due to the larger decline in spot prices than costs, losses in both processes have deepened. Currently, calcium carbide enterprises are in deep losses, and the cost - side support has been weakened [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4702 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the trading volume is 715,268 lots, down 43,758 lots; the open interest is 1,206,166 lots, down 6,761 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 905,720 lots, down 1,642 lots; the short positions are 1,042,891 lots, up 1,316 lots; the net long positions are - 137,171 lots, down 2,958 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,618.85 yuan/ton, up 21.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,820 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,707.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 92 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 549 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 183 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 192 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.69%, down 5.94 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 74.71%, down 8.23 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 55.62 tons, down 0.08 tons; the inventory in East China is 50.48 tons, up 0.21 tons; the inventory in South China is 5.14 tons, down 0.29 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area is 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4,377.94 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3,588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.93%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.8%, up 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.97%, down 0.19 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 11th to 17th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 53.94%. PVC downstream operating rate increased by 9.38% week - on - week to 48.59%, with the pipe operating rate increasing by 7.17% week - on - week to 40% and the profile operating rate increasing by 17.39% week - on - week to 33.26% [3]. - As of October 16th, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% week - on - week to 103.38 tons. V2601 first rose and then fell, closing at 4,702 yuan/ton. Affected by the maintenance of some devices, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased significantly last week. After the National Day, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of pipes and profiles increased week - on - week. Inventory decreased slightly [3]. - From October 11th to 17th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increased to 5,142 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5,432 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased to - 731 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased to - 552 yuan/ton [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continuous imbalance between supply and demand, with supply pressure remaining difficult to ease. The market's cost - side support is weak, and it is expected to operate under pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and position changes of plastic (L2601, L2605, L2609) and PP (PP2601, PP2605, PP2609) futures contracts are presented. For example, L2601 closed at 6,929 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.3%), and PP2601 closed at 6,618 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.42%) [5][6]. - Market Situation: Despite the slight increase in futures prices, the market trading atmosphere improved little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and downstream buyers mostly waited and watched. The supply - demand imbalance in the polyolefin market continued to suppress prices. Although some upstream enterprises increased maintenance due to lower - than - expected peak - season demand, the expected maintenance losses from September to November will narrow, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. After the holiday, social inventories increased, and the demand in October had some resilience but with limited new orders. The downstream mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the inventory - removal pressure was high. The upward revision of the crude oil supply forecast may lead to accelerated inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and cost - side support is difficult to find [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On October 16, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 800,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.44%) from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year [7]. - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,880 - 7,170 yuan/ton, 6,950 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and 7,130 - 7,600 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6,200 - 6,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene weakened, and production enterprises sold at discounted prices with a poor trading atmosphere [7]. - PP Market: The PP market was mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6,480 - 6,570 yuan/ton, 6,460 - 6,630 yuan/ton, and 6,470 - 6,650 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not detailed in the text [9][12][14].