证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《7 月利率会破新低么？——流动性周 报 20250629》 - 2025.06.30 固收周报 生产稳中有升，物价走势分化 ——高频数据跟踪 20250629 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端稳中有升，螺纹钢产量增加， 沥青、PX、全钢胎开工率升高，高炉、PTA 持平，半钢胎下降。第二， 房地产市场边际改善，商品房成交面积小幅回升。第三，物价走势分 化，原油价格大跌，焦煤、有色金属持续上涨；农产品价格低位企稳， 短期或将开启季节性上行趋势。第四，航运指数持续回落，BDI 指数 大幅下降。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市场恢 复情况及国际地缘政治变动影响。 生产：螺纹钢产量增加，沥青、PX、全钢胎开工率升高 6 月 27 日当周，焦炉产能利用率下降 0.16 pct，高炉开 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月01日17时01分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.47%，沪银主力收涨1.11%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘冲突缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储重新降息逻辑蓄势待发。②避险属性方面，特朗普对美日贸易谈判表示失望，贝森特警告将 提高关税。欧盟贸易执委本周将前往华盛顿与美国谈判，寻求达成公平协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储 正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久通胀的风险。美国5月消费者支出意外下降；通胀温和上 行，核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间涨至75基点左 右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震 荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥本周有多项美国就业数据，目前市场预期走弱，建议关注数据超预期风险。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者逢低做多。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | ...

Group 1 - HSBC has significantly raised its gold price forecast for 2025 from $3015 to $3215 per ounce, and for 2026 from $2915 to $3125, reflecting a 7.2% increase [1] - The bank attributes the long-term value of gold to the evolving global risk landscape and rising sovereign debt, noting that gold's role as a safe-haven asset increases during economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] - As of July 1, 2023, international gold prices are fluctuating around $3360 per ounce, with expectations that prices will range between $3100 and $3600 for the remainder of 2025, and a target price of $3175 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant correlation between gold price movements and central bank purchasing behavior, indicating that if gold prices exceed $3300, central banks may slow their buying pace [2] - If gold prices retreat to around $3000, it could trigger a new wave of reserve asset allocation, while sustained prices above $3500 may lead to demand pressures in major consumer markets like India and China [2] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. policy developments, including potential tax reform and trade tensions, which could inject further uncertainty into the gold market [2]

Group 1 - The 17th BRICS summit will be held in Rio de Janeiro from July 6 to 7, with China supporting Brazil as the chair for this year [1] - According to BCG, trade between China and global South countries is expected to grow by approximately 6% annually, which is double the global trade growth rate of about 2.9% [1][4] - The BRICS cooperation mechanism is seen as an important platform for emerging market countries and developing nations to strengthen unity and cooperation [2] Group 2 - There is a growing interest among global South countries, particularly in ASEAN and Africa, to join BRICS, indicating the platform's significance for middle-income economies [2] - Chinese companies are increasingly pursuing international expansion, with a notable trend in various sectors beyond technology, including fast-moving consumer goods and durable goods [2][6] - The expansion of BRICS is expected to inject new momentum into cooperation and development among global South countries, providing new opportunities for Chinese enterprises [2][5] Group 3 - The global trade landscape is shifting, with China becoming a key trading partner for many countries in the global South, as evidenced by 63 out of 133 members of a representative group having China as their largest trading partner [4][5] - The BRICS countries are projected to become significant players in global oil production, enhancing their economic influence [5] - The rise of Chinese companies in the global South market is expected to provide consumers with more diverse choices and richer product categories [6] Group 4 - The geopolitical risks are increasing, and Chinese companies need to enhance their resilience and establish "geopolitical muscle" to navigate the complex international environment [3][11] - Companies are advised to diversify their supply chains and establish buffer capacities to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties [12][13] - The importance of strategic decision-making is emphasized, as companies should not wait for normalcy to return but rather act proactively to seize innovation opportunities [3][11]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管全球贸易紧张局势持续且经济走弱，但加拿大主要股市基准指数上半年表现却优于美国同行，这得益于创纪录的黄金涨势。 截至6月30日，加拿大标普/TSX综合指数年内上涨8.6%，高于同期标普500指数5.5%的涨幅。以美元计算，多伦多指数上涨15%，与其他黄金权重高的全球 指数涨幅相当。 "毫无疑问，这是由黄金推动的。" 蒙特利尔银行资产管理公司（BMO Asset Management Inc.）首席投资官萨迪克·阿达蒂亚（Sadiq Adatia）表示。 随着投资者涌入黄金和贵金属矿业股，以对冲美国总统特朗普关税威胁及中东地缘政治紧张与冲突带来的部分风险，这一热潮令加拿大股市指标受益。"你 需要能为投资组合'防弹'的资产，而黄金是最好的选择。"阿达蒂亚称。 加拿大基准股指表现优越 彭博情报策略师吉莉安·沃尔夫（Gillian Wolff）在6月11日的报告中写道，标普/TSX成分股的收入预测自4月以来"显著"下滑，该指数对"挣扎中的能源板 块"的大量敞口正不成比例地拖累整体预测。 不过，麦肯齐投资公司（Mackenzie Investments）股票首 ...

【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月01日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | な☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面下探回升。螺纹表需短期趋稳，产量继续回升，库存去化放缓。热卷需求回落，产量维持高位，库存稍有累积。目前 高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，负反馈预期有所缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回暖缺乏持续 性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，6月PMI回升至49 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing trade tensions and economic weakness, Canada's main stock index outperformed the U.S. benchmark index in the first half of the year, driven by record increases in gold prices [1] - As of June 30, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 8.6% year-to-date, surpassing the S&P 500's 5.5% increase during the same period, with a 15% increase in U.S. dollar terms [1] - Investors have flocked to gold and precious metal mining stocks as a hedge against risks from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the rise of the Toronto index [1] Group 2 - Four out of the top ten performing stocks in the first half were precious metal stocks, with Agnico Eagle Mines and Wheaton Precious Metals among them, and Lundin Gold leading with a nearly 135% increase [3] - There is uncertainty about whether the gold-led rally will continue in the second half of the year as geopolitical and trade risks have diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [3] - Despite the challenges, there are other growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are injecting funds into the Toronto Stock Exchange due to its high exposure to materials, energy, and financial sectors [3] Group 3 - The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is advocating for a pro-investment and growth-oriented economic agenda, which could positively impact the market [4] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating potential valuation opportunities [4] - There is a fundamental story based on government policy changes and a valuation story for Canadian stocks, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 01 日 热点品种 沪铜： 今日沪铜低开高走尾盘拉涨。中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 连升两月至 49.7，新订 单指数回升至扩张区 16040 间，非制造业延续扩张。特朗普的高级贸易官员正在 缩减与外国达成全面对等协议的雄心，寻求达成范围更小的协议，以避免美国重 新征收关税。伊朗驻联合国大使强势表态：铀浓缩是伊朗不可剥夺的权利，永远 不会停止！基本面来看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在 数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜 大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为 主。需求端，截至截至 2025 年 5 月，电解铜表观消费 136.35 万吨，相比上月涨 跌+8.08 万吨，涨跌幅+6.30%。受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增加，带动表观 消费量的提振。全球经济不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].