Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. Core View of the Report - Soybean meal is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is still to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to view it with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. - For live pigs, the current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The USDA has resumed data release and announced the schedule for the soybean sales report. The Brazilian soybean planting rate as of last Thursday reached 61% of the expected level, lower than 67% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern part of the Brazilian soybean - producing area will be uneven and scarce, while it will be normal in other areas. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost is mainly in a volatile state. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering. In the medium - term, the strategy is still to sell on rallies as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and from November 1 - 10, it decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. India's palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October all decreased compared with September. Indonesia plans to start road tests on vehicles using biodiesel with a 50% palm oil content in early December and implement the "B50" mandatory measure in the second half of next year. Domestic oils showed a divergent trend on Thursday, with palm oil being weak and rapeseed oil being strong [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to view palm oil with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons. Datagro has lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season [9]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. As of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, showing a decline. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index remained unchanged, while the hand - picked cotton purchase index decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is average [15]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic live pig price continued to decline yesterday. The demand side shows no sign of improvement, and the upstream breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. - **Sugar**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. - **Pigs**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable on Wednesday, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL statistics showed that the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. MYSTEEL predicted that the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and the production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. The 2025/26 annual rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons. Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. On Wednesday, the domestic oil prices showed a differentiated trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The survey showed that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons in the second half of October. Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%. On November 11, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the purchase index of hand - picked cotton decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.92 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped by 0.01 yuan to 2.95 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the market demand was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mainly stable with a few narrow adjustments [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.14 yuan to 11.84 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 11.43 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped by 0.13 yuan to 11.46 yuan/kg. The demand was weak, and it is expected that today's pig price will continue to decline [21]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth shows that the destocking of steel is slower than the seasonal norm, with production - side开工率普遍回升 and demand - side facing various situations such as slow steel destocking and uneven performance in different sectors. - Inflation is characterized by a weak rebound in pig prices at the bottom, along with different price trends in CPI and PPI components [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Steel Destocking Slower than Seasonal Norm 3.1.1 Production: General Increase in Operating Rates - **Power Plant Daily Consumption Seasonal Rebound**: On November 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 796,000 tons, up 4.3% from November 3. On November 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.879 million tons, up 4.1% from October 30, driven by winter heating and industrial electricity load recovery [4][12]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate Recovered to Pre - Restriction Level**: On November 7, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from October 31, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.8%, down 0.8 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 91.9%, up 23.5 percentage points from October 31. However, the subsequent maintenance and production - cut efforts may increase due to weak downstream markets [4][16]. - **Tire Operating Rate Moderately Rebounded**: On November 6, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from October 30, and that of semi - steel car tires was 73.7%, up 0.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to be strong [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Steel Destocking Slower than Seasonal Norm - **Improvement in New Home Sales in 30 Cities on a Month - on - Month Basis**: From November 1 - 11, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 197,000 square meters, up 65.7% from October, but down compared with the same periods in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all declined year - on - year [4][24]. - **Weak Start in the Automobile Retail Market**: In November, retail sales were down 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 22% year - on - year. The high base last year and tightened subsidy policies contributed to the low growth [4][28]. - **Weak Fluctuation in Steel Prices**: On November 11, compared with November 4, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices changed by + 0.3%, + 1.4%, - 0.9%, and - 0.4% respectively. Steel destocking was slower than the seasonal norm, with the inventory of five major steel products at 1.075 million tons on November 7, down 2,100 tons from October 31 [4][33]. - **Regional Differentiation in Cement Prices**: On November 11, the national cement price index rose 0.1% from November 4. The prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showed different trends. The year - on - year decline in cement prices widened [4][34]. - **Weak Decline in Glass Prices**: On November 11, the active glass futures contract price was 1,062 yuan/ton, down 3.7% from November 4. The year - on - year and month - on - month declines in glass prices were significant [4][39]. - **End of Four - Consecutive - Increase and Turn to Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index**: On November 7, the CCFI index rose 3.6% from October 31, while the SCFI index fell 3.6%. The container shipping market is in the traditional off - season, but there may be a replenishment wave in late November and December [4][41]. 3.2 Inflation: Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom 3.2.1 CPI: Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom - **Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom**: On November 11, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.1 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from November 4. Although the supply pressure will be gradually released, the overall consumption environment is still weak [4][47]. - **Moderate Increase in Agricultural Product Price Index**: On November 11, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.5% from November 4. Different agricultural products showed different price trends, with chicken having the highest increase [4][52]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Rebound after Decline - **Oil Price Rebound after Decline**: On November 11, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $64.4 and $61.0 per barrel respectively, with Brent down 1.7% and WTI up 0.8% from November 4. Supply - side and demand - side factors jointly affect the oil price [4][55]. - **Moderate Increase in Copper and Aluminum Prices**: On November 11, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.7% and 0.2% respectively from November 4. The domestic commodity index's month - on - month decline narrowed [4][59]. - **Mixed Month - on - Month Price Changes in Industrial Products**: Since November, industrial product prices have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged, except for cement and glass [4][61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, some devices are restarted, and supply is expected to increase slightly, but due to the expected increase in future domestic supply, the cost of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation where downstream terminals firmly press prices is difficult to change, and the inventories of producers and trading enterprises may increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises will keep production stable this week to meet order needs. It is reported that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. [2] - The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,397, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,644. [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no week - on - week change. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 65.16 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 61.04 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91 US dollars/barrel. [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 576.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 740 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the middle price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 6,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days. [2] 5. Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 5.52% month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly. [2] - As of November 6, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, or a 5.15% week - on - week decrease. [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is under pressure, with a divergence in the fundamentals of PP and PE. PP shows a dual increase in supply and demand, but there is a slight inventory build - up this week under the pressure of new production capacity. PE has weak supply and demand, and although there is inventory reduction this week, port inventory remains high. The cost side is mixed, with high inventory and cost support in a continuous game [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish. Short - term observation is recommended, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be awaited later. For glass, short - term there is still some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the overall trend is bearish. The PVC market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to continue the weak trend at the bottom [5]. Methanol - The port methanol market is under significant pressure, and the current market trades on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventory. Before the gas restriction in Iran, the weak reality will continue to be traded [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply in overseas production areas is expected to be strong during the peak season, and the domestic production is gradually decreasing. The demand is weakening in some northern regions. The market sentiment has improved, and subsequent attention should be paid to the raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is generally loose, and the price driver is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds following the oil price. The supply - demand of styrene may remain in a tight balance, but the price driver is insufficient. EB12 can be shorted on rebounds [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6200 - 6800. For PTA, the short - term is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4800. For ethylene glycol, the price is under pressure. For short - fiber, the rebound space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand is in a loose pattern [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605, PP2601 and PP2605 have different price changes. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also show various trends. Spot prices of different varieties in different regions also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP have different changes in enterprise inventory, social inventory, and trade - related inventory. The start - up rates of PE and PP devices and downstream industries also vary [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash have different price changes in different regions, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also change [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production remains at a high level, and the inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches. Glass production has changes in production lines, and the demand has short - term and long - term differences [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms and regions have corresponding changes, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also vary [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda supply is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The PVC supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices in different regions have changes, and the basis and regional spreads also vary [6]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increase. The start - up rates of upstream and downstream industries also have corresponding changes [7][8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of natural rubber in different varieties and regions have changes, and the basis, month - to - month spreads also vary [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in different countries has changes, and the start - up rates of tire industries and the import and export volumes also vary [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in different forms and regions have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and import profits also vary [12]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in ports change, and the start - up rates of different industries in the industrial chain also vary [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials, PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester products have changes, and the basis, spreads between different contracts, and processing fees also vary [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand of different products in the polyester industry chain have corresponding changes, and the start - up rates of different industries also vary [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, but its basis and processing fee continued to be weak. Domestic production capacity utilization of pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded, with the impact of previous sanctions on refinery operations easing, and the pressure of incoming shipments increasing intermittently. Downstream demand remained weak, with styrene in concentrated maintenance, phenol production declining again, CPL production at a low level, and adipic acid production rebounding [2]. - Styrene ports continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with short - term low - level production capacity utilization, and maintenance only decreasing at the end of November. EB factory inventory further decreased, and port inventory began to decline. However, attention should be paid to downstream demand, as EPS production capacity utilization dropped rapidly, ABS and PS production capacity utilization remained low, and the inventory of the three major hard plastics only slightly decreased from high levels [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][10]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and the styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [15][18]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures related to production profits and spreads include styrene non - integrated production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [21][24][33]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Capacity Utilization - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and production capacity utilization [39]. - For styrene, figures cover the East China port inventory, production capacity utilization, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44]. 4. Styrene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures display the production capacity utilization and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][53][57]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures show the production capacity utilization and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products [60][68][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided [3]. - Basis and Inter - period: Consider a long - short spread strategy for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices and a short - long spread strategy for BZ2603 - BZ2605 at high prices [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3].

Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of soda ash futures is driven by supply disruptions, but the long - term pattern of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains unchanged. For operation, pay attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, and avoid blind chasing of highs [3][4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement. Gold shows signs of rising again and low - buying for long positions can be considered. Iron ore may enter a technical short - position trend and short on rebounds is recommended. Glass is expected to be oscillatory and bearish. Eggs present a long - position opportunity due to seasonal supply tightness. Pulp futures show an oscillatory rebound trend [8][13][15][19][22][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - On the afternoon of November 10, the soda ash futures 2601 contract closed at 1,226 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.49% from the previous trading day, with the highest intraday reaching 1,230 yuan/ton and the trading volume increasing to over 1.54 million lots [3]. - The core driving force for the rise comes from supply - side disruptions, including production cuts by some enterprises and postponed new capacity commissioning. Low heavy - alkali inventory and the strengthening of glass futures also support the price. However, the long - term situation of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains, and downstream glass demand is still dragged by the real - estate sector [3][4]. - Institutions suggest paying attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, not blindly chasing highs, and short - term long - position opportunities can be grasped near the 1,200 yuan/ton mark [5]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index slowly oscillated upward and closed with a small positive line. Core CPI growth expanded and the price level stabilized and rebounded. The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement [8]. Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions can be considered [13]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through an important support level and may enter a technical short - position trend, so short on rebounds is recommended [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies. Technically, it broke through the support level today and is expected to be oscillatory and bearish [19]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will gradually become prominent. Long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory showed a downward trend, but the market supply is still abundant. The sporadic publication bidding of cultural paper has boosted market confidence, but the social demand is weak, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The pulp futures have shown an oscillatory rebound trend recently [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

Report Overview 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - **Fats and Oils Industry**: The market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, and there is pressure for further decline in the external palm oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - **Sugar Industry**: The global sugar supply is abundant, and the raw sugar price remains weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by import quotas and may experience weak price fluctuations [3]. - **Pig Industry**: The pig price is expected to be moderately strong in November, and the market has entered a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. - **Cotton Industry**: The short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range due to cost support and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Corn Industry**: The short - term corn supply is relatively stable, and the price may adjust in a range. It will be weak when the selling pressure emerges [8]. - **Meal Industry**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply pressure remains, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean oil prices were stable, palm oil prices had minor fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices increased slightly [1]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil production increased in October, and the market has a bearish view on its inventory. The domestic soybean oil supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak [1]. Sugar Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, sugar futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices in some regions changed. The raw sugar price is at a five - year low [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory decreased [3]. Pig Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market's reluctance to sell increased, and the planned November slaughter volume will slow down, which may support the pig price [5]. Cotton Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, cotton futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices increased slightly [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Industrial and commercial inventories increased, and textile exports decreased [7]. Corn Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, corn futures prices decreased slightly, and spot prices in some regions increased [8]. - **Market Situation**: The selling pressure of corn is expected to increase, and the demand side is cautious in purchasing [8]. Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean prices had minor fluctuations [12]. - **Market Situation**: The demand for US soybeans is not strong, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is cost support [12]. Egg Industry - **Price Changes**: On November 7th, compared with November 6th, egg futures prices changed, and spot prices increased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of eggs is under pressure, and the demand is average [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the production and sales of in - table steel products are both decreasing, with a differentiation in the product structure. The production of rebar has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory has been continuously depleted. The decline in hot - rolled coil demand is faster than the decline in production, and the social inventory has accumulated again. The supply - demand structure of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has shrunk. Overall, the supply - demand gap at the finished - product end is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. High production has led to slow inventory depletion, and the current profit per ton of steel is continuously shrinking. There is an expectation of a continued decline in molten iron. Recently, attention should be paid to the production reduction situation. In the short term, the main rebar contract may continue to test the support of the integer - point level, and cautious operation is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory I. Supply and Demand Fundamentals 1. Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated weakly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan (- 40), and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan (- 90). On November 6, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 18.55 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 8.09 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 2.08 tons. The apparent demand was 866.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.51 tons [7]. 2. Profit - As of November 7, in the long - process spot end, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3176 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about - 16 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 33.5 yuan. At the electric - furnace end, the cost of flat - rate electricity for electric furnaces in East China was about 3320 yuan, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3177 yuan. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 220 yuan, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 77 yuan [7]. 3. Scrap Steel - As of November 6, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.3 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 tons, an increase of 1.6%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 50.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35 tons, an increase of 7.1%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap - steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 485.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.21 tons, an increase of 3.5% [8]. 4. Macro - economic Data - In 2024, according to the statistics bureau's caliber, the crude - steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared to 2023, a decrease of 1.7%; the pig - iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared to 2023, a decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, according to the statistics bureau's caliber, the cumulative pig - iron output was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude - steel output was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared to the same period in 2024 [17]. - In October 2025, the PMI was 49%. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by - 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by - 1.92% year - on - year; real - estate development investment increased by - 21.28% [26]. - From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the floor area under construction of residential buildings was 4,521.65 million square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The floor area of newly started buildings of real - estate development enterprises was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Among them, the floor area of newly started residential buildings was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The floor area of completed buildings was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the floor area of completed residential buildings was 222.28 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [29]. II. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has shrunk [39]. III. Supply Analysis 1. Long - process Supply - As of November 7, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.8%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points compared to October 31, a decrease of 0.90%; the average daily molten - iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to October 31, a decrease of 0.91% [42]. 2. Short - process Supply - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.1% (+ 0.5). As of November 7, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 4.4 yuan (- 22.11) [45]. IV. Product - specific Analysis 1. Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 208.54 tons (- 4.05). Among them, the long - process output was 179.29 tons (- 3.79), and the short - process output was 29.25 tons (- 0.26). The original sample rebar factory inventory was 166.84 tons (- 4.87), the social inventory was 425.7 tons (- 5.11), and the total inventory was 592.54 tons (- 9.98) [57][73]. 2. Hot - rolled Coils - The output of hot - rolled coils this week was 318.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 tons. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.59 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 0.23 tons, the social inventory increased by 4.09 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.86 tons [76]. 3. Export - As of November 7, the FOB export price in China was 440 US dollars (-), and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars (+ 9). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 2.9185 million tons (- 503,400 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% [87].