宏观|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 美联储"影子主席"的预期与现实 国联期货研究所 证监许可[2011]1773 号 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 稳驭舟 格局深化 经济循环，走出低通胀 待春雷 王娜 相关研究报告： 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： 美联储"影子主席"的预期：在 2026 年 5 月正式任命之前，美联 储继任主席在履新前以"影子主席"身份将密集公开表态传递激进鸽派 倾向，明确主张"大幅降息是正确方向"，通过传递白宫经济意图，引 导市场关注重塑预期框架、与鹰派立场对冲削弱官方沟通效力等方式进 行预期管理，塑造降息路径预期。市场将提前交易宽松预期，大类资产 价格呈现鲜明的政策预期驱动特征：美元指数倾向于走弱，美债收益率 整体呈现下行态势，大宗商品市场重心持续上移，贵金属作为零息资产 直接受益于降息预期下的实际利率下行，叠加美元走弱，成为宽松交易 的核心标的；其余商品依托"宽松政策提振经济需求"的逻辑获得支撑。 "影子主席"与鲍威尔后续出现观点冲突，或者市场宽松预期因美联储 部分官员倾向维持现状而遇挫，可能会加大各类资产的波动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that international gold prices have shown a rebound after hitting a low, suggesting potential for further strength in the future [1] - On the previous trading day, gold opened at $4203.37 per ounce, reached a low of $4175.18, and closed at $4208.64, with a daily fluctuation of $44.15 and a gain of $5.27, representing an increase of 0.125% [3] - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, influenced by a drop in initial jobless claims to 191,000, a three-year low, which pressured gold prices down, while expectations of interest rate cuts and buying support are providing upward momentum [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, gold prices are expected to open weakly due to the recent rise in the US dollar index, but remain above the middle track, indicating potential buying opportunities [3] - The dollar index is in a downward channel and below the 200-day moving average resistance, suggesting a generally weak outlook for the dollar, which could be favorable for gold prices [3]

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金基金ETF（518800）飘红，市场关注降息预期与地缘风险支撑。 兴业证券指出，黄金的逻辑依然最为顺畅。一是，黄金将受益于流动性宽松下的美元弱势；二是，贸易 保护、局部战争等地缘风险预计延续，且2026年美国中期选举前市场不确定性或再次上升，支撑黄金逻 辑；三是，白宫干预美联储独立性将进一步压制美元信用，全球央行购金潮有望延续，从而为黄金价格 提供基本韧性。大宗商品方面依然看好黄金。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 每日经济新闻 ...

市场关注点集中在即将公布的 PCE——若通胀意外偏强，黄金可能在短线承压，美元与收益率或出现 反弹；反之，金价的支撑区间可能进一步稳固。降息预期已基本被市场提前计入，情绪一致的环境下， 任何偏离预期的数据都可能引发快速的价格修正。 当前市场叙事已逐渐聚焦于两件事：PCE 数据与下周的美联储会议。美股进入明显整理阶段；黄金在 关键关口表现稳健；美元暂时维持企稳。随着哈塞特的表态强化市场信号，降息预期已成为牵引资产价 格的主要逻辑。 亚洲交易时段，金价围绕 4205 美元整理。美债收益率的上扬与就业数据的稳健表现，令金价上行受到 抑制，但即将到来的降息窗口使下方支撑仍较坚实。此前延后的 9 月 PCE 物价指数将在今晚公布，作 为美联储最看重的通胀参考，尽管属于滞后数据，但足以左右市场对下周会议最终结果的预判。在数据 落地之前，交易员普遍选择维持轻仓，金价波动幅度也被压缩。 白宫近期将凯文·哈塞特列入美联储主席潜在人选，使其公开表态备受关注。他直言美联储在 12 月降息 25 个基点的可能性"非常高"，并强调当前内部讨论的方向整体偏向宽松。市场反应迅速，CME 工具显 示，交易员给出的降息概率已攀升至 87%—9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - Short - term, industrial enterprise profit growth faces pressure, but may improve in 2025 with policy implementation. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10, with a mild appreciation rhythm. The stock index is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the bond market may be affected by policy expectations [2][4]. Commodities Metals - Platinum and palladium are likely to be weak in the short term, with investment attributes as the main driver. Gold and silver are expected to rise in the long - term, but silver may face short - term profit - taking pressure. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina may be weak. Zinc is expected to be strong, and nickel and stainless steel will continue to oscillate. Tin prices are strongly driven by funds, and short - term shorting is not recommended. Lithium carbonate prices may experience a short - term correction [12][16][18][20]. Black Metals - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices have limited downside in the short term. Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term pressure, and ferroalloys are expected to be weakly oscillatory [30][31][34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate downward in the long - term, with short - term multi - empty factors in balance. LPG is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern. PX - PTA has a relatively good supply - demand structure, but PTA processing fee recovery space is limited. MEG is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the valuation is under pressure in the long - term. Methanol 01 maintains a weak expectation. PP and PE are expected to be oscillatory, with PE showing a weakening trend. EB is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. Fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [40][41][43][46][50]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products - Hog prices may be affected by policy in the long - term, but in the short - term, the near - month delivery pressure persists. Oilseeds and oils are expected to oscillate, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level. Sugar prices remain weak, eggs are expected to be bearish in the long - term, apples maintain a strong pattern, and jujubes may have limited downside in the short - term [79][80][81][83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Pay attention to US PCE inflation data. China - France high - level meetings are held, and the US employment market shows a "no - firing, no - hiring" pattern. There are rumors that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, and the EU plans to build a unified capital market [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.069 on the previous trading day, down 29 basis points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was raised by 21 basis points. Short - term, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within 7.05 - 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated strongly on the previous trading day, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising 0.34%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1,210.02 billion yuan. Short - term, the stock index is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the release of PCE data [4][5][7]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds closed down on Thursday, with the 30 - year yield reaching a high point. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase was 180.8 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan. Short - term, the market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting [7]. Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping market fluctuated slightly on December 4. The 02 contract has limited upward space, and the far - month contracts are under pressure from the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. The market is affected by multiple factors, with long - short factors competing [8][9][10]. Commodities Metals Platinum and Palladium - NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts closed down at night. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is about 89%. Short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and prices mainly follow gold and silver [12]. Gold and Silver - London gold and silver prices showed a pattern of gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut is high. Long - term, precious metal prices are expected to rise, but short - term, silver may face profit - taking pressure [13][14][16]. Copper - Overnight, Comex copper, LME copper, etc. had different trends. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory increased. Copper prices may show fatigue after the digestion of positive factors [17][18]. Aluminum and Related Products - Shanghai aluminum closed up, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly oscillatory [20][21]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc closed up. The ADP data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Fundamentally, supply may contract, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strongly oscillatory [21][22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel and stainless steel oscillated. Nickel ore is expected to be stable and strong, and the new - energy sector has limited support. Stainless steel fundamentals have limited improvement, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and the December interest - rate cut expectation [22][23][24]. Tin - Shanghai tin was strongly driven by funds. The ADP data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply side has problems. Short - term, shorting is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the 315,000 yuan level [25]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures contract closed up slightly. The spot market sentiment improved, but the price may experience a short - term correction [25][26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to environmental protection. Polysilicon's short - term trading focuses on the "warehouse receipt inventory and open interest" game [27][28]. Lead - Shanghai lead oscillated narrowly and rose slightly at night. The smelting side has production cuts, and the inventory has decreased. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,400 [29]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices oscillated strongly. The supply - demand balance is improving marginally, but the profit of steel enterprises is declining. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3000 - 3300 and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3500 [30][31]. Iron Ore - Iron ore oscillated, and the industrial contradictions were alleviated. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the steel mill's production cut and profit recovery provide support. The short - term price has limited downside [32][34]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke contracts completed the main contract change. Coking coal supply is in a slight surplus, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Coking coal 01 is in a short - term bearish trend, while the 05 contract has long - term multi - allocation value [35][36]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded. The steel mill's profitability is declining, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded. The market is affected by the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and the US - Russia negotiation. Long - term, the supply is in excess, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [40][41]. LPG - LPG prices maintained an oscillatory pattern. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [42][43]. PTA - PX - PX supply decreased slightly, and PTA supply increased. The demand for polyester is high, and PTA processing fees have been repaired. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans and the dynamics of blending oil [44][46]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG supply increased, and the demand for polyester is high. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in December, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [47][50]. Methanol - Methanol 01 maintained a weak expectation. The price rebounded due to the shutdown in Iran. The subsequent game focuses on unloading speed, inland demand, and Iranian shipping volume [51][52]. PP - PP prices were weak in the spot market. The supply may increase slightly, and the demand is weak. The current valuation is low, and shorting is not recommended [53][55]. PE - PE prices returned to a weak oscillatory pattern. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to be weakly oscillatory [56][57]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene is in a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the export demand of styrene and the terminal demand [58][59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil may rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply and demand of fuel oil are affected by multiple factors [60][61][62]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices declined slightly. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The winter - storage policy is about to be introduced, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [62][64]. Rubber and Related Products - Natural rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and synthetic rubber may be weakly oscillatory. The difference between natural and synthetic rubber prices is expected to widen [66][67]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak with high - level supply expectations. Glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels. Caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [68][70][71]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp and offset paper prices have short - term upward potential, but attention should be paid to position management [72][73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog futures prices declined. The northern and southern pig markets showed different trends. Policy may affect long - term supply, but near - month delivery pressure persists [79][80]. Oilseeds - The external market of oilseeds oscillated weakly, and the domestic market followed. The supply of imported soybeans and the demand for domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors. Attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [81][82]. Oils - The domestic oils market oscillated. The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by different factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, waiting for data guidance [83]. Cotton - ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton prices declined. The new cotton is accelerating to the market, and the downstream has resilience. The cotton price has limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure level [84]. Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices were weak. The global sugar supply is in excess, and the price is expected to remain weak [85][86]. Eggs - Egg futures prices remained unchanged. The market demand has recovered, and the inventory has been cleared. The long - term egg production capacity is still in excess, and the price is expected to be bearish [87]. Apples - Apple futures prices declined, but the strong pattern remains. The inventory of late - Fuji apples decreased, and the price is expected to remain strong [88][89]. Jujubes - Jujube prices oscillated at a low level. The new jujubes are being harvested, and the price may have limited downside in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the final production [90].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 5 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：摩尔线程上市 有望带动反弹 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪或有修复，短线空单止盈 4 | | 盘面整体压力仍存 5 | 蛋白粕：报告或有阶段性调整 | | --- | --- | | 国内糖价震荡 5 | 白糖：广西进入开榨高峰 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 价格小幅回落 8 | 生猪：出栏方面仍有压力 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 蛋价有所回落 9 | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | 苹果：库存较低 | | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部震荡运行 可逢低试多 13 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本推动短期反弹，需求压制反弹高度 15 | | 金银：黄金持稳 白银回调 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂择机逢低 ...

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：供应减产，价格偏强 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：基本面有韧性 | 11 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡横盘震荡 | 13 | | 钯：横盘整理 | 13 | | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 5 日 黄金：降息预期回升 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 白银：震荡回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金 ...

铜：宏观与基本面共振，铜价强势上涨 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 近期国内现货铜价偏强上涨，主因：一、美国11月ADP就业人数下滑，就业数据疲软推动降息预期升 温。二、CSPT成员将于明年降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上，加之智利国家铜业明年意向溢价超300美元/ 吨，市场对未来国内供应紧张的担忧加剧；加工企业订单缩减较为明显，仅部分大厂按需采购。短期供 应紧张与降息预期支撑铜价，议息会议结束后宏观支撑力度将有减弱，故现货铜价或先涨而后窄幅回 落。 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. Treasury debt, surpassing $30 trillion, which has doubled since 2018 [3] - The unemployment claims in the U.S. reached a three-year low, indicating a strengthening labor market [3] - The retail sales in the Eurozone for October showed a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, exceeding expectations [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 9.42% to 2845.00, indicating a positive trend in shipping costs [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23505.14, up by 0.22%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased slightly by 0.07% to 47850.94 [5] - The price of Brent crude oil increased by 1.12% to $63.37, reflecting rising energy costs [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25935.90, up by 0.68%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.86% to 9106.48 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a minor decline of 0.06%, closing at 3875.79 [5] - The Shenzhen Composite Index saw a slight decrease of 0.10%, ending at 2438.53 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to fluctuate, with COMEX gold futures experiencing a drop to $4203 per ounce before recovering to close at $4237.9 per ounce, influenced by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and increased institutional holdings in gold [1] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.13% to $4237.9 per ounce at the close [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.37%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.28% [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, indicated that real wage growth exceeding inflation may lead to a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 87% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Zhongtai Futures noted that macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy easing, safe-haven demand, reserve demand, and allocation demand continue to support a bullish outlook for gold, with no mid-term bearish factors currently identified [1] - The potential for a sustained strong performance in gold over the medium to long term remains high, with short-term adjustments providing mid-term allocation opportunities [1]