Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The macro - face is positive. The National Development and Reform Commission expects China's GDP in 2025 to be around 140 trillion yuan, and will promote the modern infrastructure system. The State Council aims to stabilize employment and the economy through policy measures [1]. - The fundamental data last week was weak. The production and sales of the five major steel products declined, and the inventory remained flat. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of rebar all decreased, and the demand for building materials was in the off - season. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the inventory increased slightly for three consecutive weeks [1]. - The recent rebound of rebar futures is mainly due to positive macro - expectations and supplemented by the improvement of the supply - demand structure. The short - term market sentiment is warm, and the futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. However, due to the weak demand pattern, the upward pressure on the futures price is still large [1][5] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose strongly supported by macro - sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 (+30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (+50) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3300 (+50) yuan/ton [4]. - The macro - situation is positive with expected GDP scale and employment - stabilizing policies [4]. - The industrial data shows that last week, rebar production was 217 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 221 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons; factory inventory was 181 million tons, unchanged; social inventory was 359 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; total inventory was 540 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 323 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons; factory inventory was 78 million tons, a decrease of 0.51 million tons; social inventory was 268 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; total inventory was 346 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; apparent demand was 323 million tons, a decrease of 2 million tons [1][5] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development aims to stabilize the real estate market [6][7]. - Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period and announced new tariffs on Mexican and EU products [10]. - 33 construction enterprises issued an "anti - involution" initiative [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission gave GDP expectations and infrastructure development plans [10]. - The State Council issued an employment - stabilizing policy [10] Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel futures, including rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and consumption [9][11][16]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing volatility in crude oil prices and the potential investment opportunities that may arise from this situation [1] - It raises questions about whether the risk associated with oil price fluctuations is also on the rise, indicating a shift in the supply-demand structure [1] - The article suggests that it may be the right time to enter the market, prompting further analysis on the current dynamics [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable change in the supply-demand structure of the oil market, which could influence pricing and investment strategies [1] - The article implies that understanding these dynamics is crucial for making informed investment decisions [1] Market Timing - The piece emphasizes the importance of identifying the right entry point for investments in the oil sector, given the current market conditions [1] - It suggests that the timing of investments could significantly impact potential returns [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from April [1][3] - The decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.7% decrease in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.13 percentage points of the total CPI decline [2] - The hospitality and tourism sectors saw price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to April [1][4] - The decrease in PPI was largely due to international factors, with significant price drops in the oil and gas extraction sector (5.6%) and refined petroleum products (3.5%) [4] - Domestic energy and raw material prices also saw a decline, particularly in the coal sector, which experienced a 3.0% drop due to seasonal demand [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The core CPI's mild recovery reflects improvements in supply and demand structures across various industries, supported by macroeconomic policies [3][6] - The overall economic resilience is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in CPI, with increased demand during the summer likely to boost service prices [3] - The PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, although it may take time to exit negative territory [6]

Group 1 - Recent domestic coal futures have experienced a sharp rebound, leading to a stabilization and increase in methanol prices, which are currently operating in the range of 2250 to 2300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol futures contract 2509 remains in a bearish arrangement, with significant domestic supply pressure and increasing overseas imports, while downstream demand is entering a low season, resulting in accumulated social inventory [1] Group 2 - Domestic coal prices have significantly declined due to increased supply pressures, with the daily output of coking coal reaching 1.9795 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 11,300 tons [2] - The production profit for coal-based methanol has risen to over 20% in the northwest region of China, with profits in Shandong and Inner Mongolia increasing to the range of 15% to 20% [2] Group 3 - The reduction in maintenance of methanol production facilities has led to high production levels, with an estimated maintenance capacity of 7.51 million tons/year in May, a significant decrease of 56.59% year-on-year [3] - The average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was maintained at 82.95%, with a weekly production average of 1.9667 million tons, an increase of 27.60 thousand tons compared to the same period last year [3] Group 4 - The traditional low season for methanol consumption occurs from June to August, with June being the annual demand trough, leading to weak demand characteristics [4] - As external imports of methanol increase, the weak demand may lead to an accumulation of inventory, with port methanol inventory in East and South China rising to 394,400 tons, and inland methanol inventory reaching 355,000 tons [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol futures market is expected to show a weakening trend. With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall reference view is a weakening operation, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand structure [1]. Price and Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Energy and Chemical Sector of Commodity Futures - The intraday view of methanol is weakly oscillating, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is a weakening operation. The core logic is that after the digestion of macro - positive factors, the market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure and reaching a new weekly production high. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to further reduction of port inventory. With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure of social inventory accumulation will increase in the future. The 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend last Friday, with the price slightly rising 0.32% to 2208 yuan/ton [5].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping by 2.27% to 1421.0 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook for the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggests a bearish approach to coking coal, citing high iron water levels and declining future demand as key factors [1] - The firm notes that the cost of thermal coal has collapsed, leading to downward pressure on coking coal prices, and anticipates a potential price drop following a failed second round of price increases [1] - The article highlights that steel mills are experiencing seasonal demand peaks, which may lead to negative feedback in the market if high iron water levels do not sustain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Hualian Futures indicates that domestic coal mines are maintaining normal production levels, resulting in continued supply pressure [1] - The report mentions that while coking enterprises are seeing slight profit increases, their willingness to purchase coking coal remains low, leading to a decline in coking coal inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand structure remains loose, with expectations of weak demand from end-users and a significant drop in steel mill inventories [1] Group 3: Price Levels and Recommendations - Shenyin Wanguo Futures identifies key support and resistance levels for coking coal, with JM09 focusing on 850 as support and 920 as resistance, while J09 looks at 1350-1400 for support and 1500 for resistance [1] - Hualian Futures recommends a strategy of selling on rallies, with reference pressure levels set at 950 for coking coal and 1600 for coking coal futures [1]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts show a structural positive change, with infrastructure cement usage exceeding the same period in 2024[2] - Industrial production remains at a seasonally high level, with the chemical chain operating at historical highs[2] - Demand in construction is weak, while automotive and home appliance demand is improving, with rolling sales of passenger cars showing a year-on-year increase[3] Price Trends - International commodity prices show a mixed trend, with oil and gold prices declining while base metals are rising[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a slight rebound, with rebar prices recovering and some chemical and building material prices showing signs of rebound[4] - Food prices are trending downward, with agricultural product prices fluctuating downwards and pork prices remaining stable[4] Real Estate and Liquidity - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, although first-tier cities show improvement, with transaction area in major cities up 2% week-on-week[5] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shenzhen show a marginal year-on-year decline, while Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions continue at historical highs[5] - Liquidity is tightening, with funding rates declining; as of May 16, R007 was at 1.63% and DR007 at 1.64%[5] Export Performance - High-frequency export data has not significantly rebounded, with May exports expected to be around 0% year-on-year as of May 17[6] - Port throughput data indicates a potential decline in exports, with daily export transport data showing some resilience but not a substantial recovery[6] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy strength[6]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - **Basis**: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]

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Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has entered a technical bull market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high since June 2015, driven by strong demand and limited supply [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of March 17, the China Convertible Bond Index rose to 438.41 points, marking a significant increase of over 20% since September 2024, indicating a technical bull market [1][3][4]. - Nearly 50% of convertible bonds have seen a cumulative increase of over 20% since September 2024, with some bonds like Fuxin Convertible Bond and Outong Convertible Bond experiencing gains exceeding 200% [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a reduction in the overall stock of convertible bonds due to strong redemptions and an increase in near-term bonds, while new issuances remain low [6]. - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and public funds, are increasing their allocation to convertible bonds in a low-interest-rate environment, contributing to the demand [6]. Valuation Outlook - The valuation of convertible bonds is expected to remain high due to anticipated scarcity in supply by 2025, with estimates suggesting a reduction in the stock of convertible bonds to around 650 billion yuan [8][9]. - The current price levels of certain convertible bonds are approaching those seen in 2021, raising concerns about potential overvaluation, but many institutions believe the pricing is justified given the market conditions [8][9]. Market Trends and Risks - The convertible bond market is closely tied to the performance of the equity market, particularly in the technology sector, which has shown significant gains this year [11]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of high volatility in the convertible bond market, especially if there is a shift in market style from growth to value stocks [11][12].