Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures prices are experiencing a volatile consolidation phase, influenced by increased supply from new projects and declining industry profits [1][2][8] Supply - Ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is at 66.55%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week; total production is 404,600 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [2] - The production capacity of coal-based ethylene glycol is at 65.96%, down 2.47% week-on-week, while oil-integrated facilities show a slight increase in utilization [2] - Overall, supply remains relatively ample, with expectations of slight production growth as some coal chemical facilities resume operations [2][8] Inventory - As of September 15, the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is 395,600 tons, an increase of 32,400 tons from the previous week [4] Demand - Domestic polyester industry weekly production is 1,546,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.74% week-on-week, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.9% [5] - Demand in the weaving sector shows a slight recovery, with average order days increasing to 14.55 days, although large orders remain scarce [7] Cost Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production, but geopolitical risks and seasonal declines in oil consumption are putting pressure on international oil prices [1] - The cost structure for ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to falling prices of crude oil and coal [8] Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol production with a potential increase in imports, maintaining stable overall supply [8] - The weak price trend for ethylene glycol is likely to persist, with forecasts suggesting continued downward pressure [8]

Price and Basis - Futures prices have declined while the basis has strengthened, with steel billet prices down by 10 to 3080 yuan. The actual transaction price for rebar in East China is 3170 yuan per ton, with the October futures contract at a discount of 51 yuan to the spot price. Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3400 yuan per ton, with the main contract at a discount of 39 yuan to the spot price [1]. Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has seen fluctuations, with overall operating rates and output not recovering significantly. After a decline in inventory, there are signs of a potential accumulation again. Iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased, while steel production remains high, and seasonal demand for steel is declining. Expectations for a contraction in coking coal supply persist, and while iron ore demand remains high, a slight accumulation is expected, leading to a weaker cost support on a month-on-month basis. As prices weaken, steel profits are declining, with profits ranked from high to low as follows: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1]. Supply - From January to July, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. Month-on-month, August production rebounded compared to July, mainly due to a significant increase in daily scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap steel consumption at 55800 tons, up by 0.6% month-on-month. The total production of the five major materials increased by 64000 tons to 8.78 million tons. By product type, rebar production decreased by 58000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96000 tons to 3.25 million tons. Since July, production of the five major materials has exceeded demand, leading to inventory pressure due to last year's low production base in August [1][2]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major materials remained flat year-on-year (-0.2%), while the production decline was greater than the apparent demand (-1.3%). The increase in iron element production (+3%) is primarily directed towards non-five major materials and steel billets. Domestic demand has decreased year-on-year, while external demand has increased significantly, with direct and indirect steel exports rising. Overall steel demand has increased year-on-year, with average daily production rising and apparent demand remaining flat, while inventory has decreased year-on-year. Month-on-month, the seasonal decline was not significant, and the impact of tariffs on demand was offset by the increase in direct exports. Apparent demand for rebar has decreased, dragging down overall apparent demand. The apparent demand for the five major materials decreased by 22000 tons to 8.53 million tons, with rebar demand down by 5000 tons to 1.95 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 6500 tons to 3.21 million tons [2]. Inventory - This week saw a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with little increase in steel mill inventories. The inventory of the five major materials increased by 25000 tons to 14.41 million tons, with rebar inventory up by 20000 tons to 6.07 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory up by 4000 tons to 3.6144 million tons. By product type, rebar supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to significant inventory accumulation; for sheet materials, both supply and demand are weak, resulting in minimal inventory accumulation [2]. Outlook - Molten iron production remains stable, with weekly data indicating a slight increase in the production of the five major materials and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, alongside a rebound in apparent demand. Data shows signs of a bottoming out, but levels remain within the off-peak season. August demand saw a significant month-on-month decline, primarily due to poor rebar demand, affecting the spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil, which has widened to around 290. The market remains weak, with steel prices declining. There is an expectation for a rebound in demand during the peak season from September to October, and considering the situation of steel demand and coking coal supply, steel prices are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern. A long position is suggested for trading, with October hot-rolled coil and rebar prices referenced at 3350 yuan and 3150 yuan, respectively [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For pure benzene, the supply shows a slight increase with the overall supply rising due to the increase in开工率. The demand is also increasing, but the actual demand growth is slow due to low profits. There is a slight decline in port inventory this week, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in August - September, but the improvement space is limited considering high hidden inventory and insufficient terminal demand [5]. - For styrene, the supply pressure remains high with new capacity coming online, but the demand from EPS and PS sectors has increased, and there is a de - stocking trend in inventory. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new capacity and exports [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On August 18, the styrene main contract closed down 0.14% at 7,230 yuan/ton with a basis of 40 (+0 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.05% at 6,186 yuan/ton [4]. - Cost: On August 18, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.8 (-1.2 dollars/barrel), the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 65.9 (-1.0 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 6,095 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [4]. - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% de - stocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% de - stocking [4]. - Supply: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [4]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), ABS was 71.1% (+0%), and PS was 56.7% (+1.7%) [4]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The supply is increasing, the demand is also rising but the actual increase is slow. There is a slight de - stocking in ports this week. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of improvement in August - September, but the improvement space is limited [5]. - Styrene: The supply pressure is high, the demand has increased in some sectors, and there is a de - stocking trend. The supply - demand surplus is expected to ease marginally in August - September [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract price changed from 7,238.0 to 7,240.0, a 0.03% increase; spot price changed from 7,656.0 to 7,596.0, a 0.78% decrease; basis changed from 67.0 to 40.0, a 40.30% decrease [8]. - Pure benzene futures main contract price changed from 6,179.0 to 6,189.0, a 0.16% increase; East China price changed from 6,105.0 to 6,100.0, a 0.08% decrease; South Korea FOB price changed from 732.5 to 733.5, a 0.14% increase; US FOB price changed from 799.5 to 796.5, a 0.38% decrease; China CFR price remained unchanged [8]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - Styrene output in China increased from 35.9 to 36.9 tons, a 2.76% increase; pure benzene output decreased from 44.6 to 44.5 tons, a 0.18% decrease [9]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased from 15.9 to 14.9 tons, a 6.42% decrease; domestic factory inventory decreased from 21.1 to 20.9 tons, a 1.29% decrease; pure benzene port inventory decreased from 16.3 to 14.6 tons, a 10.43% decrease [9]. (3) Capacity Utilization Rates - For pure benzene downstream, styrene capacity utilization rate increased from 77.7 to 78.2, a 0.45% increase; caprolactam increased from 88.4 to 93.7, a 5.31% increase; phenol decreased from 77.1 to 77.0, a 0.07% decrease; aniline decreased from 73.5 to 71.6, a 1.89% decrease [10]. - For styrene downstream, EPS capacity utilization rate increased from 43.7 to 58.1, a 14.41% increase; ABS remained at 71.1, a 0.00% change; PS increased from 55.0 to 56.7, a 1.70% increase [10]. 3. Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and capacity, pushing up naphtha costs, and China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record 1,600 - 1,700 tons in 2025 [11]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, which has a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [11]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position in the global petrochemical market [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon price has declined, while the polysilicon price has remained high and stable. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase significantly in August due to the increase in furnace openings by silicon enterprises. The polysilicon production is also expected to rise, but the demand for silicon wafers may decline. The organic silicon industry has a certain price increase and strong price - holding intention, while the aluminum - silicon alloy industry has weak demand and declining prices. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Cost and Profit**: In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, while the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. Overall, the cost side has weak support for the silicon price. The average profit of industrial silicon 553 and 421 in June was - 2,361 yuan/ton and - 2,049 yuan/ton respectively, showing a month - on - month recovery [3][37]. - **Supply**: The number of furnace openings of silicon enterprises has increased. In Xinjiang, the previously reduced - production enterprises have recovered; in Yunnan and Sichuan, the operation has increased steadily. It is expected that more silicon enterprises will increase furnace openings in August, with a significant overall increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. In July, the output of polysilicon is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons, and there will still be some growth in August. The organic silicon industry has a weak purchase of industrial silicon due to an accident in an individual enterprise, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures price has remained high, and the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As the price rises, part of the factory inventory has transferred to the intermediate link and futures - cash traders, and the social inventory has decreased [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the increase in enterprise operation, the silicon price support has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, mainly in the southwest and Qinghai regions, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The price of downstream silicon wafers has continued to rise, but the silicon wafer quotation cannot cover the full cost. It is expected that the production schedule in July will drop to about 52GW. The battery orders are short - term positive, and the component end has shown a situation of rising first and then falling [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the total polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW. As of August 1, the total polysilicon futures warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the polysilicon price has declined after reaching a high. Fundamentally, the supply side of silicon materials has a strong expectation of incremental supply, and the demand side has no major changes. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 40,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Organic Silicon - **Supply**: In July, the DMC start - up rate was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the output was 199,800 tons, showing a month - on - month decline [92]. - **Price**: The organic silicon price has rebounded. As of August 1, the average price of DMC was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average price of silicone oil was 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [97]. - **Market Situation**: The monomer factories have received orders smoothly, and due to the low factory inventory pressure, they have a strong intention to hold prices. However, because the downstream inventory is sufficient, the purchase intention has declined after restocking [97]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: On the week of July 31, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 54.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 53.1%, remaining flat month - on - month [106]. - **Price**: The aluminum - silicon alloy price has declined. As of August 1, the average price of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the average price of A356 was 20,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [109].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation with various factors influencing prices. Supply is considered neutral, with potential for increased Chinese production in 2025/26 despite USDA's prediction of a double - decline. Demand is downward, as cotton prices are weaker than棉纱, and spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low. Inventory is in a neutral state, with the de - stocking speed accelerating. The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend, and opportunities for 11 - 1 reverse spreads can be considered [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The USDA's July report shows that the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons. The US cotton planting area in 2025 will decrease by 12% year - on - year. China's 2025/26 cotton production is revised up by 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons, while import demand is reduced by 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. There is still room for an increase in China's cotton production due to good weather and strong expansion intentions in Xinjiang [6]. - **Demand**: Cotton prices are relatively weaker than 棉纱 this week, and the spot transaction price is falling. Spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low in the off - season, while weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: As of mid - July, the social cotton inventory is 3.4245 million tons, a decrease of 308,300 tons from the end of June, with a month - on - month decline of 8.26%. The de - stocking speed is the fastest of the year. The industrial inventory of spinning mills continues to decline, and inland spinning mills are not enthusiastic about stocking raw materials [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 8,807, with 348 valid forecasts, and the total amount of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 366,200 tons, down from 384,600 tons on July 25 [6]. - **Basis**: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price falls with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, due to the withdrawal of some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang and poor overall demand prospects, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - **Macro**: The previous macro - positive expectations in China have weakened. The Politburo meeting met market expectations, and there is no additional incremental stimulus. The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a significant month - on - month decline. Overseas, the June non - farm payrolls data was significantly revised down. The commodity attribute is bearish in the next few months, while the macro - attribute is gradually turning bullish, and the direction of interest rate cuts is certain [6]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be in a state of unilateral oscillation with a weakening trend. It is advisable to lay out 11 - 1 reverse spreads at high levels [6]. 02. Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton supply and demand situation shows changes in various indicators such as inventory, production, consumption, etc. For example, the global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.47 million tons, and the consumption is expected to be 25.64 million tons [14]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The production of main cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. China's cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.24% [15]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The demand of main cotton - consuming countries also shows different trends. For example, China's cotton consumption in 2025/26 is expected to be 7.947 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% [16]. - **US Cotton Weather**: The USDA's planting intention report shows that the US cotton planting area in 2025 is expected to be 10.12 million acres, higher than market expectations, which brings pressure to the market [18]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking, and the clothing inventory of wholesalers and retailers is turning from de - stocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the relaxation of tariffs and previous import - rushing behaviors, the retailer inventory has reached a high point, weakening the continuous restocking behavior [29]. - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: Domestic new - year cotton planting area is expanding, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area shows an increasing trend [34]. - **Cotton Imports**: Cotton and 棉纱 imports are relatively low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas [35]. - **Cotton Industry Chain Inventory**: The inventory situation of the cotton industry chain includes the inventory of spinning mills and weaving mills, and the de - stocking speed of cotton commercial inventory is relatively fast [57]. - **Spinning Profits**: Spinning profits are still poor [45]. - **Industry Chain Downstream Startup Rates**: The startup rates of the downstream of the industry chain, including spinning mills and weaving mills, are also presented in the report [48][51]. - **Cotton and Substitute Price Spreads**: The price spreads between cotton and its substitutes are also analyzed [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 3.36 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction, modification, and road modification asphalt, as well as the waterproofing membrane, all have low and mostly decreasing or flat - lined operating rates [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Regarding the basis, on July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - For the market, the MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - Overall, it is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.9204%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points month - on - month. The sample enterprise output was 516000 tons, a decrease of 9.79% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 642000 tons, an increase of 11.85% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 547.8 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 847.0529 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. As crude oil prices strengthen, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 177 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 1352000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. Factory inventory is 723000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. Port diluted asphalt inventory is 16000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. Social inventory is accumulating, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed above the MA20. The net long position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the asphalt market will experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term. The asphalt 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3598 - 3640 [8]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of multiple asphalt contracts, as well as the price and change data of different types of asphalt in various regions, and the profit data of asphalt processing and delayed coking [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [53][54]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [61][62][64]. - **Social and Factory Inventories**: The report shows the historical trends of the social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [65][66]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [71][72]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: The report presents the historical trend of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [77][78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction**: The report presents the historical trend of transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction from 2020 to 2025 [83][84]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year completion rate of infrastructure investment from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume of domestic excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [92][93]. - **Categorized Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction, modification, and other types of asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [101][102].

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Report Highlights 1. Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume was 1,033,119 lots, and the open interest was 381,048 lots, with a net increase of 1,200 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: After continuous price increases, the spot price stabilized. The strong performance of polysilicon drove industrial silicon to fluctuate strongly. The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest产区 offset the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand improved marginally. The production schedule of polysilicon increased slightly in July, and the demand for organic silicon remained stable. In the short term, the fundamental driving force was limited. The strong rise of polysilicon may drive the current price to continue to increase, but from the perspective of average cost and the cancellation price of previous warehouse receipts, 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton is a resistance range to be challenged. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,354 lots, a net increase of 142 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N-type dense material was 44,000 yuan [5]. - In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of industrial silicon was 8,851 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553-grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441-grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421-grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price remained stable overall [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]