在近期举行的2025金融街论坛年会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜透露，将恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。 央行在公开市场买卖国债是增强国债金融功能、发挥国债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策与财 政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。 在实践中，央行会根据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收益率曲线形态变化等情况，灵活开展 国债买卖双向操作，保障货币政策顺畅传导和金融市场平稳运行。自去年8月份开始开展公开市场国债 买卖操作以来，截至去年12月份，央行共累计买入1万亿元国债。但在今年年初，债券市场供求不平衡 压力较大、市场风险有所累积，国债买卖按下了"暂停键"。 "与年初暂停国债买卖时相比，当前10年期国债收益率已升至1.8%附近，期限利差走阔，债市整体运行 良好。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，当前恢复国债买卖操作，加大对银行体系长期流动性的支 持，也在进一步释放稳增长信号，有助于稳定今年四季度和明年一季度宏观经济运行。 大公国际首席宏观分析师刘祥东表示，从宏观货币政策层面看，央行此举体现适度宽松的货币政策取 向，既避免流动性紧张又不释放过度宽松信号，有助于实现稳增长与 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 不过，在多种因素影响下，进口货物增值税、消费税15007亿元，同比下降4.9%；关税1954亿元，同比 下降3.3%；车辆购置税1676亿元，同比下降16.3%。 10月，税收收入增速持续大幅回升。 11月17日财政部发布的数据显示，1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%；10月 份，全国一般公共预算收入2.26万亿元，同比增长3.2%，相比9月的2.6%边际回升，其中，10月份全国 税收收入2.07万亿元，增长8.6%，增幅与上月基本持平，是拉动财政收入的主要动力。 在市场人士看来，税收收入持续较快增长，主要原因在于经济稳中有进，使得生产端与消费端保持韧 性，企业经营状况总体稳定，纳税增加。 不过，国盛证券首席经济学家熊园提醒，尽管税收收入延续高增长，但总体来看10月财政收支分化明 显。1—10月一般财政支出累计22.58万亿元，同比增长2%，较1—9月的3.1%有所下滑；10月一般财政 支出1.78万亿元，同比-9.78%，大幅低于9月的3.08%。因此，国泰海通高级宏观分析师侯欢对此建议， 当前稳经济还需政策接力。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a marginal recovery in October at 3.2% compared to 2.6% in September, driven by tax revenue improvements and the effects of anti-involution policies [3] - The national general public budget expenditure grew by 2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, but saw a significant decline in October with a -9.8% growth rate, down from 3.1% in September, indicating a need for continued fiscal support to stabilize the economy [4] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, with a sharp decline of -18.4% in October, attributed to the accelerated adjustment in the real estate market [4] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Measures - To ensure the continuation of proactive policies in the fourth quarter, incremental policies are being implemented, including the deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 [5] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits in October 2025, including an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond quotas to support investment construction in certain provinces [5] Group 3: Investment Insights - The analysis indicates a divergence between macroeconomic variables and asset prices, with government leverage increasing while household and corporate leverage remains stable or declines, leading to rising interest rates independent of the recovery in household and corporate sectors [10] - The report suggests that the solid income and interest rate differentials have been largely neutralized, making it crucial to seek alpha in future investments, emphasizing the importance of risk preference and careful asset selection [11]

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a growth rate improvement of 0.3 percentage points compared to January to September[1] - In October, the general public budget revenue recorded a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, up from 2.6% in September, driven primarily by tax revenue which grew by 8.6%[1][2] - Personal income tax showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 27.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 16.7%, making it a core driver of tax revenue growth[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure from January to October 2025 totaled 22.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2%[1] - In October, public budget expenditure decreased by 9.8%, marking the first negative growth of the year, attributed to earlier fiscal spending in the first half of the year and constraints from the annual deficit requirements[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a significant decline of 26.7%, indicating reduced support for traditional fiscal investment methods[5] Tax Revenue Dynamics - Non-tax revenue experienced a sharp decline of 33.0%, indicating an ongoing improvement in the quality of fiscal revenue[1] - Export tax rebates fell by 14.8%, suggesting a potential weakening in external demand, consistent with the downward trend in October's export growth[2] - The growth rate of securities transaction stamp duty normalized to 17.5%, down from a previous 342.4%, indicating a return to typical market conditions[2] Fiscal Policy Implications - The tightening of fiscal expenditure in October may necessitate an increase in the deficit ratio next year to support economic continuity, especially with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan"[3] - Local government land transfer revenue dropped by 27.3%, a significant increase in decline compared to the previous month's -1.0%, impacting government fund expenditures which fell by 38.2%[5]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while expenditure rose by 2%[3] - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with expenditure increasing by 15.4%[3] - In October, general public budget revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with central and local revenues increasing by 2.3% and 4.0% respectively[6] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in October, with a seasonal growth of approximately 79% compared to September, marking the highest level in five years[8] - Personal income tax revenue experienced an "abnormal" growth of 24.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the average growth of 9.6% from 2021 to 2024[8] - Non-tax revenue declined sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 33% and a month-on-month drop exceeding 53 percentage points[19] Expenditure Challenges - General public budget expenditure fell by 9.8% year-on-year in October, a significant drop compared to the previous year's growth of 3.1%[23] - Local government expenditure decreased by nearly 12% year-on-year, while central government expenditure only declined by about 1%[24] - Social welfare and employment expenditures faced considerable pressure, with a month-on-month decline of 39.4%[27] Land Sales and Fiscal Impact - Land sales revenue in October was recorded at 268 billion yuan, a 27.3% year-on-year decline, marking the lowest level in five years[32] - The downturn in the real estate market has severely impacted local government finances, with land sales contributing 81% to local government fund revenue[37] - Broad fiscal revenue turned negative, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% in income and a 19.1% drop in expenditure[34]

Group 1 - Japanese long-term government bonds have declined further, raising concerns about the potential impact of Prime Minister Kishi's upcoming large-scale economic stimulus plan on public finances [1][4] - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surged by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since its issuance in 2007; yields on 20-year and 30-year bonds have also increased by at least 4 basis points [1][4] - The government is considering an additional budget of approximately 14 trillion yen (about 91 billion USD) for the current fiscal year, exceeding last year's 13.9 trillion yen, reflecting Kishi's commitment to a "responsible and expansionary fiscal" policy [4] Group 2 - The recent GDP data showing a 1.8% annualized decline in Japan's third quarter supports the push for a large-scale stimulus plan, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming auction of 20-year government bonds, with expectations of weak demand due to the current volatility in the bond market [4] - Prime Minister Kishi is scheduled to meet with Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, with market attention focused on their statements for clues regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [5]

| | 1、央行公告称，11月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2830 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量2830亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1199亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1631亿元。 | | | 2、外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，针对日本首相高市早苗涉台错误言论，中方已经并将继续向日方提出严正 交涉和强烈抗议，严肃要求日方立即反思纠错，收回错误言论，停止在涉华问题上制造事端。另外，在二十国集团领 | | | 导人峰会期间，李强总理没有会见日方领导人的安排。 | | | 3、国务院副总理何立峰与德国副总理兼财政部长克林拜尔共同主持第四次中德高级别财金对话。联合声明显示，双方 欢迎符合条件的沪深交易所上市公司在法兰克福证交所发行全球存托凭证（GDR），欢迎符合条件的法兰克福证交所上 | | | 市公司在沪深交易所发行中国存托凭证（CDR）。双方同意推动中德金融基础设施互联互通。 | | | 4、财政部公布数据显示，今年1-10月，全国财政收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。10月单月，全国财政收入2.26万 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2026 经济与市 场展望 251117_原文 发言人 00:00 OK, 不好意思，大家上午好。我们今天由于技术原因晚了大概五分钟，而且这个视频也打不开。但今天 的话题是很重要的，我是 Robert 行富强。 发言人 00:12 做出这些判断的部分原因是什么？也是根据最近我们看到的十五规划建议稿已经落地了。中美之间的经 贸协议经过了多轮之间的博弈按下了暂停键，以及我们对美国经济、全球经济明年也有一个判断。 发言人 02:01 总的来讲，首先是美国讲起来 26 年和 27 年，美国经济还是比较有韧性的。特别是 AI 短期来讲人工智 能是带动美国的投资，中长期来讲可能会释放出对生产力的带动，对 26 年和 27 年美国经济还是保持 了一定的韧性。具体从季节性上来讲，26 年的上半年会略差一点。因为有一些今年的政策的滞后扰动， 比如说它的关税的调整，移民政策的收紧。但是看明年的全年到与 AI 相关的投资来托底。可能上半年 签过之后，下半年逐个季度美国经济也会修复。到了 27 年，可能美国的通胀也逐渐的稳定了。AI 人工 智能带动的生产率的提升更加显性化了，使得它的经济在健 ...

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In October, public fiscal revenue was CNY 22,614.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at CNY 20,700.0 billion, up 8.6%[6] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 1,914.0 billion, down 33.0% year-on-year, a significant decline of 21.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[6] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was CNY 17,761.0 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year, marking a negative growth shift from September[16] Tax Contributions - Domestic value-added tax increased by 7.2% in October, contributing 3.0 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[8] - Corporate income tax rose by 7.3%, contributing 0.7 percentage points to the tax revenue growth, while personal income tax surged by 27.3%, contributing 2.9 percentage points[8] - Consumption tax revenue grew by 4.4%, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[8] Government Fund Performance - From January to October, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 34,473.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%[19] - Land use rights transfer revenue was CNY 24,982.0 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year, indicating a worsening decline trend[19] - Government fund expenditure for the same period reached CNY 80,892.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%[22] Economic Outlook - The fiscal expenditure and financing pace in 2025 supported a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters[25] - Incremental policies are anticipated at the end of this year and early next year to bolster economic growth, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" for fiscal and policy financial tools[25] - Risks include increasing overseas recession risks and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[26]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 17, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total amount of 283 billion [1] - On the same day, 119.9 billion in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank continued net injections in the open market, with overnight repurchase rates rising approximately 14 basis points to around 1.51% due to tax periods and year-end bank liabilities [3][5] - The overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.00% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was stable at 1.64% [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.33%, 10-year by 0.09%, 5-year by 0.05%, and 2-year by 0.03% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue at 15.3364 trillion, up 1.7%, and non-tax revenue at 3.3126 trillion, down 3.1% [14] - The central government’s budget revenue was 8.1856 trillion, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 10.4634 trillion, up 2.1% [14] Group 6: Foreign Holdings in Bond Market - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 3.73 trillion in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.2% of the total custody amount [15] - Foreign institutions held 2.04 trillion in government bonds, 0.78 trillion in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.75 trillion in policy financial bonds [15] Group 7: Global Macro - Japan's Q3 GDP showed a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.4%, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [17] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a loose monetary policy stance to achieve a stable inflation target of 2% [17]