尽管日本央行强调，12月19日的加息是由于经济发展符合其预期，但会议纪要暗示，决策成员对日元疲 软影响的警惕性正在增强。该次会议召开时，日元汇率约为155，而2025年全年平均汇率约为149.70。 在上周五结束的最新一次议息会议上，日本央行选择维持基准利率不变，但会议中出现一张反对票，该 名理事呼吁央行再次加息。此外，日本央行在季度经济展望中上调了多项通胀预期，上调幅度超出经济 学家此前预期，也让市场加大了对央行或在4月前再次加息的押注。日本央行下一次议息决议将于3月19 日公布。 会议纪要中还有一位理事指出，结合当前加息对日本经济和通胀的影响仍较为有限的现状来看，日本央 行距离中性利率水平仍有"相当大"的空间。该理事大概率是日本央行两位最鹰派的理事Naoki Tamura或 Hajime Takata之一。 市场此前已充分消化日本央行12月的加息动作，因此加息落地后日元汇率依旧维持弱势，最终在1月14 日触及159.45的18个月低点。 不过自上周五以来，日元汇率出现快速升值。当时有消息称美国相关部门开展汇率核查，市场对当局可 能出手干预汇市的预期升温。周三东京早盘，日元兑美元汇率进一步升至152.10， ...

市场普遍预期美联储将在本周的政策会议上维持利率不变，此前美联储已计划在2025年底前连续三次降 息。因此，各方关注的焦点将是官员们是否会暗示他们计划维持利率不变多久。 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 高盛首席美国经济学家戴维・梅里克尔（David Mericle）在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施 两次降息，首次降息落地6月。 美联储去年曾于9月、10月、12月三次降息，当前政策利率区间已调至3.50%-3.75%，这些举措也是美联 储在劳动力市场增长放缓、经济数据走弱背景下释放的货币宽松信号。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 安永帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里・达科（Gregory Daco）表示，当前利率已接近中性水平，且通胀率 更接近3%而非2%的目标，未来降息的前提是，有明确证据表明通胀持续回落，或就业市场再度恶化。 "货币政策或已接近中性，这意味着未来的宽松举措将推进得 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the recent performance of the equity market, highlighting a significant divergence in market trends due to regulatory policies and liquidity conditions. Major sectors like consumption, pharmaceuticals, and finance saw declines, while growth sectors, particularly commercial aerospace, gained attention after adjustments [3][7][9] - The earnings season is beginning, and the market may shift towards profit recovery and valuation repair. The ongoing anti-involution policies are leading to negative investment growth across various industries, indicating future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under fiscal stimulus and economic recovery, benefiting leading companies in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [3][9] - The bond market experienced a rise in short-term yields and a decline in long-term yields, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 3.95 basis points to 1.28%, while the 10-year and 30-year yields decreased by 1.26 and 1.65 basis points, respectively. This shift is attributed to a "cooling" stock market prompting funds to seek refuge in bonds [4][10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, maintaining consistency with previous drafts and introducing specific adjustments regarding benchmark changes and reporting requirements [12] Equity Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices fell by 0.62% and 0.34%, respectively. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 27.972 trillion yuan, indicating a reduction in market activity [7] - ETF funds experienced a net outflow, with the CSI 300 ETF seeing a reduction of 49.603 billion units. Other ETFs also faced significant outflows, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment and the effectiveness of regulatory measures aimed at attracting long-term capital [7][8] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a narrowing of yield spreads, with the short-term funding environment remaining favorable. The People's Bank of China indicated potential for further monetary easing, which could support market sentiment [4][10] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The recent release of performance benchmark guidelines for public funds aims to standardize evaluation criteria and ensure consistency in fund management practices, reflecting a regulatory push towards greater transparency and accountability in the fund industry [12]

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 国债期货：震荡偏多 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：财政部有关负责人介绍，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平， 确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于 "两重"建设和"两新"工作，并优化政策。央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。从 财政部及央行相关官员表态来看，货币宽松及财政刺激依然是今年的重要政策调控手段，市场对利率下行 预期增加，债市做多氛围增加。受金融市场影响及财政发债等各方面扰动，1月份之后，资金面持续维持 较高的位置，对债市形成一定偏空影响，但是由于国际地缘扰动等因素，避险情绪有所增加，叠加国内央 行及财政逆周期调节预期，债市做多氛围增加。股债跷跷板及股债双牛逻辑是否会有所切换，需要持续关 注。 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板 2.资金面扰动 3.经济数据情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

Core Conclusion - The recent high-frequency changes indicate three main trends: improvement in second-hand housing sales, continued weakness in new housing sales, and rising prices of major commodities [1][2]. Group 1: Supply - Upstream operating rates show divergence, with a slight recovery in coking and asphalt, while high furnace and cement dispatch rates have declined. The average operating rate of high furnaces decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 78.7% [3][18]. - In the downstream sector, the operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires increased by 6.9 percentage points to 74.0%, while the operating rate of polyester filament saw a seasonal decline [21]. Group 2: Demand - Second-hand housing sales continued to improve, while new housing sales remained weak. From January 1 to 23, the average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 55.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 38.6% [5][34]. - In contrast, second-hand housing sales in 18 key cities remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 22.5%, indicating a potential recovery [34]. Group 3: Prices - Most upstream commodity prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by 5.4% month-on-month, while LME copper prices rose by 2.1% [7][38]. - The average price of rebar increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while cement prices fell by 1.7% [8][46]. Group 4: Inventory - Industrial metal inventories have increased, with steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories rising by 0.3% and 5.8%, respectively [10][54]. - The average coal inventory in coastal power plants decreased by 3.7% month-on-month, while U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories increased by 14.76 million barrels [10][52]. Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - Chinese export freight rates have rebounded, with the CCFI index rising by 1.2% month-on-month [13][61]. - The number of commercial flights increased by 2.6% month-on-month, while subway ridership in 10 key cities saw a slight decline [58]. Group 6: Liquidity - The central bank implemented a net liquidity injection of 10,423 billion yuan through OMO, with a focus on easing monetary conditions [15][65]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 2.1 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of declining interest rates [67].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Market Trends**: The global equity markets performed well in 2025, with a notable bull market in both U.S. stocks and bonds driven by the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy and a trend towards de-dollarization. However, market fragmentation risks due to U.S.-China tensions need to be monitored [1][2] - **Japanese Yen Depreciation**: The Japanese yen has depreciated to its lowest level since 1985, with high inflation preventing effective interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. This divergence between nominal and real interest rates may persist until 2026, impacting emerging markets [1][4] - **High Leverage Risks**: The ratio of private sector credit to GDP has reached a new high, posing potential risks that could emerge in emerging markets and drag down developed economies. This high leverage is a significant precursor to cyclical risks [1][5] China Market Insights - **Chinese Stock and Bond Markets**: In 2025, China's stock market showed strength while the bond market was weak, indicating increased economic and social confidence. Large capital inflows suggest a favorable investment environment [1][7] - **Economic Performance**: China's GDP growth rate for 2025 was 5%. Despite moderate domestic demand, significant capital inflows were observed, similar to Japan's past experiences. The strategy of leveraging low-interest debt to invest in high-yield overseas assets is recommended [1][8] - **Government Bond Market**: The three-year government bond market in China has been adjusting, with M1 growth and positive PPI putting pressure on the bond market. The behavior of financial institutions, particularly brokerages, has shifted towards shorting in Q4 2025 [1][9][10] Monetary Policy Changes - **Central Bank Policy Shifts**: The central bank's monetary policy has shifted from emphasizing increased control to focusing on the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies. This indicates a more moderate approach to monetary easing in 2026, with lowered expectations for interest rate cuts [1][11] Commodity Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Gold and copper have shown strong performance, with gold favored as a risk hedge by central banks and sovereign institutions. The demand for copper is influenced by supply-demand structural issues, particularly in the U.S. and China [1][13][14] - **Investment Strategies**: Gold is viewed as a hedge rather than a high-return investment, with attention needed on futures pricing and market limitations. Copper prices are expected to remain strong unless significant negative news arises [1][16][20] Future Projections - **Economic Growth and Interest Rates**: There are differing views on the U.S. economic growth and interest rate outlook for 2026, with some expecting significant rate cuts due to a lack of recovery in traditional industries and others believing that limited cuts will suffice for recovery [1][27][28] - **Gold Market Dynamics**: The gold market is expected to remain bullish, driven by central bank purchases and ETF inflows. The potential for a 10%-15% price correction exists if economic recovery leads to rising real interest rates [1][29][55] Structural Opportunities - **Long-term Gold Demand**: Emerging market countries are increasingly diversifying their reserves into gold, which could significantly impact global demand. The interest from institutional investors in gold is also on the rise [1][23][51] Conclusion - The global economic landscape is characterized by significant fragmentation, high leverage risks, and evolving monetary policies. The Chinese market shows resilience with strong capital inflows, while commodities like gold and copper present both opportunities and challenges. The outlook for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic, with careful monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments essential for investment strategies.

但白银价格的预期则更为复杂。Wilson表示，尽管白银价格持续创下新高，但推动2025年白银强劲上涨的实物短缺问题正在解决，预计白银在达到100美 元后不久将遭到抛售。上海期货交易所近期也接连多次上调白银期货合约交易限额和保证金，强化投资者白银投资的风险管控。 黄金白银价格的持续上行也刺激着许多散户投资者加速进场。陆利平认为，普通投资者应明确贵金属作为"避险垫"的配置定位，占比控制在5%-15%。配 置策略上，以黄金为底仓构建防御性组合，适度纳入白银以增强弹性。操作上，可以采用定投模式，通过银行积存金、黄金ETF等工具平滑建仓成本，坚 决避免在历史高位进行一次性重仓买入。需警惕美联储政策超预期转向及地缘局势实质性缓和带来的回调风险。务必定期审视资产组合，严守纪律，理性 参与，方能穿越市场周期，把握长期结构性机会。 贵金属又又又又迎来一波大涨行情。 1月21日，现货黄金和现货白银价格均创历史新高。其中，现货黄金价格突破4800美元/盎司整数关口，一度上探到4887美元/盎司。同日，中国黄金的足 金饰品报价超过1500元/克；现货白银价格也一度突破95美元/盎司关口，折合人民币约每克23元。 2025年年底，有多 ...

Precious Metals Industry - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves to diversify risk, with China's central bank having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [1] - The global monetary easing expectations are rising, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of precious and non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1] - The market for precious metals is expected to experience a broad rally starting in early 2026, characterized by a resonance between financial and industrial attributes [1] - Key players in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Guoyuan Platinum, all of which are focusing on optimizing production and expanding operations [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The demand for non-ferrous metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum is growing due to the rigid requirements from emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers [1] - The market dynamics for non-ferrous metals are changing, driven by both traditional infrastructure demand and new energy sectors [1] - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and Tin Industry Co., which are involved in mining, refining, and processing of various metals [4]

C 则联社 一图看懂 5年前1瓶茅台~10克黄金 如今～? 5年前,1瓶飞天茅台约等于10克黄金。如今国际金价已 突破4700美元/盎司,再创新高。那么,同样一瓶茅台, 现在还能值几克黄金? 7x24h电报 头条新闻 实时盯盘 VIP资讯 为速度和交易而生 上海报业集团主管主办 策划：周颖 制图： 翟一然 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 | 飞天茅台价格(原箱) | | 金价(约) | | --- | --- | --- | | 3840元/瓶 | | 369.11元/克 | | 団 2021年9月 | =10.4g | | | 背后原因:全球货币 | | | | 宽松,"液体黄金"神 | | | | 话盛行,茅台金融属 | | | | 性达到顶峰。 | | | | 飞天茅台价格(原箱) | | 金价 (红) | | 1550元/瓶 | | 1060元/克 | | 団 2026年1月20日 | | | | 背后原因: 茅台金融 | =1.46a | | | 属性消退,黄金成为 | | | | 全球信用对冲工具: | | | | 央行购金、地缘冲突、 | | | | 去美元化叙事等。 | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Economic Outlook - **Date**: 16 January 2026 Core Insights 1. **Export Performance**: - China's headline export growth accelerated to 6.6% year-on-year in December, exceeding expectations, primarily driven by gains in emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, which saw a 4.3% month-on-month increase. Exports to the EU and US remained flat, while exports to Japan declined [4][19] - The overall trade surplus for 2025 reached a record high of US$1.2 trillion, supported by gains from ASEAN, Africa, EU, Latin America, and India, despite losses from the US [4] 2. **Import Dynamics**: - Imports rebounded with a surprising 3.9% month-on-month increase in December, led by a 10.4% rise in imports from the EU and a 7.3% increase from Korea, indicating strengthening trade relationships [4][20] - The increase in imports reflects efforts to ease external pressures amid recent diplomatic engagements [4] 3. **Monetary Policy**: - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced structural monetary easing measures, including a 25 basis point rate cut across various policy tools and an expansion of relending quotas to support agriculture and SMEs [10][14] - Loan growth stabilized at 6.4% year-on-year in December, with new loan creation matching forecasts at 910 billion yuan, indicating a temporary pause in the downtrend observed since early 2023 [9][21] 4. **Economic Growth Forecast**: - For 2026, a cautious outlook for China's exports is anticipated, with nominal export growth expected to slow to 3.4% year-on-year from 5.5% in 2025. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth is projected to decrease from 1.1 percentage points to 0.6 [6][11] - The trade surplus is expected to narrow from 6.1% to 5.7% of GDP [6] 5. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The PBOC's easing measures are expected to primarily benefit targeted sectors, with a focus on supporting policy-driven areas and weaker economic segments [12][14] - The loan mix showed a rebound in corporate loans, particularly short-term and bill financing, while household loans continued to contract [9] Additional Important Points 1. **Global Economic Context**: - Global growth is tracking stronger than expected, which may provide a firmer external demand for Chinese exports despite rising trade barriers [8] - Scheduled high-level engagements between US and Chinese leadership may help maintain bilateral stability [8] 2. **Taiwan Trade Developments**: - Taiwan successfully negotiated lower reciprocal tariffs with the US, which could positively impact its semiconductor industry, a significant component of its exports [15] 3. **Upcoming Data Releases**: - Anticipated data releases include GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment for China, as well as consumer price index data for Hong Kong and export orders for Taiwan [11][17] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Greater China and its implications for future growth and investment opportunities.