Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a fluctuation and consolidation this week, with trading volume consistently above 2 trillion, indicating active trading sentiment. The index fell by 1.30%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, and the STAR Market 50 Index rose by 1.84. The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 1.43% [1][3][8]. Economic Analysis - Economic data for August shows a continued weakening trend, with various indicators reflecting a slowdown. The industrial added value for August grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value. Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value [9][10]. - The fiscal revenue for August was 1.24 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, but down 0.62 percentage points from the previous month. Tax revenue was 1.02 trillion, up 3.39% year-on-year, but also down 1.61 percentage points from the previous month. Non-tax revenue fell to 220.7 billion, marking a 3.79% decline, continuing a four-month streak of negative growth [10][11]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations. The Fed's decision is seen as a neutral signal, with expectations of two more rate cuts within the year. This move creates external space for monetary easing in China [3][11][14]. Sector Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on sectors such as public utilities, finance, electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4][15]. Stock Performance Tracking - The report includes a tracking of potential stocks for the month, highlighting companies like Xinhua Insurance, which closed at 45.05 with a maximum increase of 5.92%, and Xiamen Tungsten, which closed at 20.30 with a maximum increase of 3.48% [22][23]. Conclusion - Overall, the market is expected to continue its oscillating upward trend in the short term, despite the high-level fluctuations. The ongoing economic pressures and the need for policy support suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the capital market [3][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: High - level correction [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of gold and silver remains unchanged, despite short - term adjustments. Copper's long - term trend is positive, while zinc shows a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum prices are under pressure, and nickel prices are also facing downward pressure. Lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term due to strong terminal demand [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the probability of rate cuts in 2026 is lower than expected, and gold and silver prices have significantly adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data has improved month - on - month, and many countries have followed the Fed in cutting interest rates. In the short term, the market is selling on the news, leading to a correction in gold prices. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the selling on the news is common, but the volatility is expected to be limited. Silver has support around 9730. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has been oscillating and testing the support of the lower moving average [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight. High copper prices have suppressed demand, and inventories have continued to accumulate. Pay attention to the strength of domestic policies and the performance of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. The market has fully priced in the rate cut. Copper has oscillated and corrected, testing the support of the lower moving average. The long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. For the medium - long term, be optimistic about copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been under pressure and testing the support of the 22,000 - yuan level [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates was abundant. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production was expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have accumulated, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream buyers are purchasing on dips [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. In the short term, LME zinc has risen and then fallen. Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly and may test the support of the lower integer level. In the medium - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have been under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Inventories have accumulated. The demand side has shown a step - by - step recovery. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and the supply pressure of alumina has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been under pressure, and stainless steel has rebounded and then fallen [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decline, and the production volume in September is expected to increase. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption during the peak season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved lower, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side has continued to release incremental production. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and the inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased. The price of lithium carbonate has support at the bottom and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of [72300 - 73500] [22].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate adjustment since December of the previous year and the first for 2025 [1][2] - The decision to lower rates was primarily driven by concerns over a weakening labor market, with non-farm payroll data indicating stagnation in job creation and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [2][5] - The internal voting on the rate cut showed a strong consensus, with an 11 to 1 vote in favor, indicating a unified stance among most Federal Reserve members despite previous dissent [5][6] Group 2 - The only dissenting vote came from Stephen Moore, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, highlighting differing views within the Federal Reserve [6] - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation remains significant, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since January of the current year [2][7] - Future rate cuts are anticipated in the upcoming meetings in October and December, as the Federal Reserve aims to address the risks in the labor market while balancing inflation concerns [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Financial News reports that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September aligns with market expectations, indicating a measured response to economic concerns while maintaining restraint [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points was anticipated by the market, but the expected 50 basis point cut did not materialize, reflecting significant divisions among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [1] Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, due to weak employment data, the Federal Reserve is expected to consider another rate cut in October. However, rising inflation will likely increase the threshold for further cuts, limiting the scope for monetary easing [1] Economic Challenges - The current issues facing the U.S. economy are not due to insufficient demand but rather rising costs. Excessive monetary easing may not resolve employment challenges and could exacerbate inflation, potentially leading the economy into a "stagflation-like" scenario [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September aligns with market expectations, indicating a measured response to economic concerns while maintaining restraint [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The anticipated 50 basis point cut did not materialize, reflecting significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future rate cuts [1] - A further rate cut is expected in October due to weak employment data, but subsequent cuts may face higher thresholds due to rising inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The current issue in the U.S. economy is not insufficient demand but rising costs, suggesting that excessive monetary easing may exacerbate inflation rather than resolve employment issues [1] - The economy may risk entering a "stagflation-like" scenario if inflation continues to rise alongside economic challenges [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July's 5.7% [1] - Month-on-month growth in August was 0.37%, slightly lower than July's 0.38% [1] - The decline in industrial added value is primarily attributed to a decrease in external demand and cautious expansion attitudes among enterprises due to high tariffs [1] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Services - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 323,906 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [1] - In August alone, retail sales totaled 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month [1] - The growth in retail sales was supported by strong demand in service consumption, particularly in tourism and transportation, while the reliance on subsidies decreased [1] Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, showing a slowdown in growth [2] - In August, manufacturing investment fell by 1.3% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to the previous month [2] - Real estate development investment dropped by 19.9% year-on-year in August, with a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to July [2] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed weak performance while the Producer Price Index (PPI) improved [2] - There is a strong market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which may ease external constraints and open up more room for domestic monetary policy to be "moderately loose" [2] - The potential for a rate cut in the fourth quarter is increasing due to the current economic conditions [2] Group 5: Bond Market Outlook - The impact of data on the bond market has become relatively muted, with the main influencing factors being the stock-bond "see-saw" effect, policy expectations, and institutional behavior [3] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to unchanged economic fundamentals and a loose monetary environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% in response to economic pressures from U.S. tariffs and a weakening labor market, marking the first rate cut since March [1][4][8] Economic Conditions - The Canadian economy contracted by an annualized rate of 1.6% in the second quarter, primarily due to declines in export activity and business investment [6][8] - Employment has decreased by over 106,000 jobs in July and August, mainly in trade-sensitive sectors, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.1% [6][9] - Consumer and housing activities are growing at a healthy pace, but slowing population growth and a weakening labor market may suppress household spending [6][8] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core inflation rate is currently around 3%, but the Bank of Canada believes broader underlying inflation pressures are closer to 2.5% [6][9] - The decision to cut rates was made with a consensus among committee members, aiming to better balance risks in a weakening economy with reduced inflationary pressures [4][9] - The central bank has removed previous forward guidance suggesting further rate cuts may be necessary, indicating a cautious approach moving forward [4][5] Trade and Tariff Impact - U.S. tariffs have had a profound impact on key industries such as automotive, steel, and aluminum, contributing to economic strain [6][8] - The recent decision by the Canadian government to eliminate most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports is expected to alleviate some upward price pressures on related goods [9]

【导读】加拿大降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚，降息之夜，加拿大也降息了，一起关注一下。 9月17日晚间，鉴于美国关税对经济和劳动力市场造成冲击，加拿大央行宣布降息，但对未来宽松路径保持缄默。降息幅度为25个基点， 利率降 至2.5%，这是自3月份以来首次下调政策利率，符合市场和大多数经济学家的预期。 | 政策利率 | 总体CPI通胀 | CPI调整 | 3.0% | 2025年8月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2.5% | 1.9% | | | | | 2025年9月17日 | 2025年8月 | CPI中位数 | 3.1% | 2025年8月 | 麦克勒姆表示："关税对多个关键行业产生了深远影响，包括汽车、钢铁和铝业。" 加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆在预先准备的讲话中表示："在经济走弱、通胀上行风险减小的情况下，委员会认为下调政策利率更有利于 在未来更好地平衡风险。"他称此次降息"存在明确共识"。 官员指出，经济压力不断上升，其中包括国内劳动力市场进一步转弱。他们还表示，马克·卡尼总理取消部分美国产品进口的报复性关税， 消除了一个潜在的通胀来源 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16-17 is highly anticipated due to the confirmation of three new officials and the potential initiation of a rate-cutting cycle [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have reached 100%, indicating that a reduction is almost certain [1][3] - The new officials may favor a more aggressive 50 basis points cut, while the remaining members might support a 25 basis points cut, but the key takeaway is the start of a new monetary easing cycle [3] Group 2 - The anticipated rate cuts in the U.S. could lead to a decrease in deposit rates in China, affecting trillions of yuan in savings interest [5] - Financial products, primarily backed by deposits and bonds, may see mixed effects; while deposit yields may decline, the bond market could benefit from increased liquidity [7] - Historical trends show that rate-cutting cycles often lead to bull markets in equities, with significant inflows of capital into stock markets expected [9] Group 3 - The gold market is likely to benefit from increased liquidity, with potential for gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce as investors seek safe-haven assets [11] - A weaker dollar resulting from rate cuts may lead to appreciation of other currencies, such as the Chinese yuan, prompting investors to consider currency exchanges [13] - The trend of appointing like-minded officials to the Federal Reserve suggests that rate cuts may continue over the next one to two years, impacting various financial assets [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new rate-cutting cycle during its upcoming meeting, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut and a lower probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is 95.9%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 4.1% [1] - By October, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is projected to reach 73.8%, indicating strong market expectations for continued monetary easing [1] Group 2: Global Impact and Market Reactions - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may trigger a wave of rate cuts from global central banks [1] - Although China's benchmark interest rate is already low, there remains some room for easing, such as lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rates, or through reserve requirement ratio cuts to release liquidity [1] - Continued monetary easing and maintaining low interest rates could boost the A-share market and potentially lead to a second wave of upward momentum in the market [1] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut may serve as a turning point for the market, supporting the expected "golden September and silver October" trend in the A-share market [1]