隔夜，欧美市场在节日效应下资金驱动美股和商品市场上涨，贵金属受到金融属性和工业属性双重提振 而涨幅领先，金银均创历史新高，铂金涨幅则更大。国际金价开盘后持续震荡上行价格突破前高涨幅进 一步扩大站上4400美元上方，收盘报4442.41美元/盎司，涨幅2.41%；国际银价开盘早段快速拉升至69 美元上方后有所回落尾盘涨幅回升，收盘报69.01美元/盎司，涨幅2.8%。铂钯在市场规模相对较小的情 况下涨幅更加显著，广期所盘中铂金、钯金合约均触及涨停，伦敦铂金站上2100美元上方收盘价为 2123.35美元/盎司创2008年以来新高，现货钯金涨幅相对较小收盘报11美元/盎司，涨2.76%。截至11点 20分，有色金属ETF(512400.SH)涨1.95%，山东黄金涨7.67%。 总体看，有色金属板块投资逻辑聚焦三 大主线： （一）贵金属：降息预期、库存低位和避险情绪共振 近期贵金属价格表现强势，现货黄金、白银价格持续攀升并屡创新高；铂钯期货主力合约，日内涨幅超 5%且多次触及涨停。核心驱动因素在于市场对美联储后续降息的预期持续升温，叠加全球地缘政治不 确定性引发避险情绪攀升。行业统计显示，目前COMEX白银库存约 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is generally optimistic about gold prices in the coming year, with target ranges between $4,800 and $5,000 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report indicates that the upward momentum for gold is expected to continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5,000 [1] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is a significant factor driving gold demand, as investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness [1] Group 2: Central Bank Demand - HSBC anticipates that central bank gold purchasing will remain high, particularly due to sustained buying from emerging market central banks, which constitutes a key support for gold prices [1] - However, HSBC warns that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are fewer than market expectations, the upward trajectory of gold may face resistance [1]

12月22日，今天A股三大指数均收复或者说突破60日线，若外围环境配合，比如美股再创历史新高，则上证指数 突破态势已经形成，那么大概率将有一轮跨年行情。 现阶段，AI主要应用集中在AIGC，也就是AI创作内容，创作视频，这些很厉害，但没有改变实质性的推动生产 力，而无人驾驶、具身智能、脑机接口、低空经济，是AI的生产力领域应用的一个方面，如果一个能成功普及， 即使是这次大盘突破，本轮反弹目标也并不高，应该能够突破前高4034，后面高度要看流动性和市场的成交量。 而本轮跨年行情的核心板块，核心是消费和AI应用类股票。 临近年底，我们也要看一看2026年的股市。其实26年的股市很好懂，你只需要看两件事： 一件事是货币宽松。美元进入宽松周期，但美联储鲍威尔等还在负隅顽抗，但到明年，特朗普对美联储的干预力 度会空前增强，因为鲍威尔要退休了，为了讨好特朗普当上美联储主席，相信美联储的理事会成员会主动表态支 持宽松。 注意，我们并不是用降息来判断，而是宽松还是紧缩的判断，这背后其实是因为宽松除了降息，还有美联储购买 美债。 今年12月，美联储降息之余购买了400亿美元美债，对此，一部分人认为这个购买类似于逆回购，是常态化 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-19 市场分析 通胀方面，美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。整体CPI同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的3.1%。不过，由于数据采集受到联邦政府停摆的严重干扰，这份通胀报告的可靠性受到市场质 疑。美联储方面，美国总统特朗普在对全国发表电视讲话时表示，下一任美联储主席提名人选即将揭晓，且这名 候选人会支持"大幅"降低利率。就业市场方面，美国上周初请失业金人数环比下降1.3万人至22.4万人，略低于市 场预期。前一周续请失业金人数增加6.7万人至189.7万，低于预期的193万。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-18，沪金主力合约开于977.00元/克，收于980.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.08%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于977.60元/克，收于980.20元/克，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.03%。 2025-12-18，沪银主力合约开于15447.00元/千克，收于15521.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动0.06%。当日成交 量为1571738手，持仓量为3634 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, although some precious metals face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [1] - Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path may affect market expectations for liquidity expansion, potentially disturbing precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market [2] - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly over the past three years, leading to potential technical selling pressure due to their overweight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [2] - Despite short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - The global platinum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation by 2026, with slow growth in production due to high mining costs and unstable power supply [3] - Platinum demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards, with automotive catalysts accounting for 42.5% of global platinum demand [3] - The palladium market is experiencing pressure from the increasing market share of electric vehicles, leading to a less optimistic long-term demand outlook for palladium [3]

Group 1 - President Trump addressed the nation on December 17, highlighting achievements over the past 11 months and announcing measures to alleviate economic anxiety among the public [1][4] - Trump claimed to have reduced costs for various goods and services, including gasoline, eggs, airline tickets, and hotels, while also increasing wage growth and curbing immigration [1][4] - The announcement included the upcoming selection of a new Federal Reserve chair, with candidates likely being National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed Governor Warsh, both of whom have differing views on monetary policy [1][4] Group 2 - Trump revealed that the government sent checks of $1,776 to 1.45 million military personnel, a figure symbolizing the year of America's founding [6] - Recent polls indicate that public concern over economic issues is high, with only 33% of Americans approving of Trump's economic management and 39% approving of his overall job performance [6] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated the vision of the "Trump Account" plan, aimed at increasing stock market participation among Americans, with a one-time deposit of $1,000 for newborns to invest in index funds [6]

美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒近期表态强化了这一预期。他明确指出，鉴于就业增长转弱和通胀风险下 降，"美联储仍有进一步降息的空间"。这与亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克的鹰派观点形成鲜明对比，内部 政策分歧反而放大市场对宽松政策的想象。 黄金作为零孳息资产，在利率下行周期中吸引力显著上升——降息将直接降低持有黄金的机会成本，驱 动资金从债市与其他资产流向金市。 关键节点预警：本周延迟公布的美国11月CPI与PCE通胀数据，若结果低于预期，可能成为 金价突破4400美元关口的导火索。 地缘政治紧张升级放大避险需求 除了经济基本面，骤然升温的地缘政治风险为贵金属涨势再添"一把火"。美国总统特朗普周二下令封锁 所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，进一步升级对马杜罗政府的施压。据美国记者塔克·卡尔森援引国会 消息，特朗普或在美国东部时间12月17日晚九点的全国讲话中正式对委内瑞拉宣战。 这一潜在军事行动风险瞬间点燃全球避险情绪。历史经验显示，地缘冲突尤其是涉及能源大国的危机， 往往引发黄金短期内急涨。市场波动率预期上升，推动投资者加速涌入黄金、白银等传统避险资产。 股市疲软也为金价提供间接支撑。周三，受人工智能融资忧虑拖累科技股，美股 ...

二级市场上，资金关注相关配置工具。截至12月17日，国债政金债ETF（511580）连续10日获资金净流 入超29亿元，最新规模突破40亿元。其跟踪中证国债及政策性金融债0-3年指数，主要投资于为0-3年期 限的国债和政金债，具有信用风险低、体量较大、流动性较好的特点。 中信证券表示，当前市场流动性市场整体宽松，央行操作上削峰填谷。年末流动性压力可能季节性抬 升，但人民银行宽货币态度明确，后续逆回购、MLF和买债呵护流动性宽松的确定性较高。 财信证券认为，2026年货币政策维持适度宽松仍是主基调，2026年一季度降准降息仍有望落地。此外， 财政政策方面，近期会议采取"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"表述，部分缓解市场对政 府债供给放量的担忧。鉴于当前机构止盈情绪仍较浓厚，若无增量政策，则债市震荡格局短期难破，短 端确定性更高。 长端利率继续下行。12月17日全天来看，10年国债、30年国债、10年国开收益率分别下行1.7bp、 4.6bp、3.0bp至1.84%、2.23%、1.90%。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of monetary easing by lowering interest rates by 25 basis points and starting a "technical balance sheet expansion," which involves purchasing $4 trillion in short-term government bonds each month [3][5] - This $4 trillion is a significant amount, comparable to the annual GDP of many small to medium-sized countries, and is expected to have a substantial impact on global liquidity [5] - The Fed's decision appears contradictory, as the dot plot indicates only one planned rate cut next year, suggesting a cautious "hawkish" stance, while Chairman Powell's comments reflect a "dovish" approach focused on employment [5][7] Group 2 - The Fed's operations are influenced by the integration of artificial intelligence into policy considerations, indicating that technological advancements are shaping the decision-making of top central banks [7][9] - The U.S. debt has reached $38 trillion, and traditional methods to address such debt, like tax increases or spending cuts, are politically challenging [11] - The U.S. is pursuing a strategy that combines financial measures with technological innovation, aiming to manage debt risks through increased liquidity while hoping for a technological revolution to alleviate long-term economic pressures [13][15] Group 3 - The U.S. plans to treat humanoid robots as a strategic emerging industry, with initiatives to support manufacturing and reduce production costs through tax incentives and research subsidies [17] - The approach involves using AI to replace both cognitive and physical labor, thereby significantly enhancing production efficiency [19] - The ultimate goal is to ensure that the growth rate of goods production surpasses the rate of money issuance, which would alleviate debt pressure and potentially restore the U.S. as a global economic leader [21]

智通财经APP注意到，随着投资者关注美国通胀数据并监测委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，黄金价格逼近历史新高。白银则攀升至新的峰值，延续了强劲的 涨势。 金价升至每盎司 4325 美元以上，从前一交易日结束五连涨的小幅下跌中恢复过来。定于周四公布的通胀数据将受到密切关注，以寻找美联储进一步降息的 意愿可能受到何种影响的线索。在该数据发布之前，几位关键的美联储官员将公开发表讲话。 委内瑞拉的事态发展也提振了金价，美国总统特朗普下令封锁所有受制裁的油轮。在该地区军事集结和地面打击威胁的背景下，特朗普正在加大对委内瑞拉 总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的压力。 投资者正密切关注任何进一步货币宽松的迹象，此前美国央行上周进行了连续第三次降息——这对不支付利息的贵金属来说是一个利好因素。目前，交易员 认为一月份降息的概率接近 25%。 随着委内瑞拉局势紧张升级，金价逼近历史高位 黄金价格距离 10 月份创下的每盎司 4,381 美元以上的历史最高纪录不远。今年以来，这种贵金属已上涨约三分之二，有望创下 1979 年以来的最佳年度表 现。这波迅猛的涨势得益于中央银行的大幅买入，以及投资者从政府债券和主要货币中普遍撤离。地缘政治紧张局势也增 ...