1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Although the US restarted the tariff war, the market's reaction has become dull. With the release of semi-annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about the first-half earnings of listed companies. The previous series of growth-stabilizing policies are starting to take effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive economic data in the second quarter. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [6][97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.46% for the week, IH2509 rose 1.27%, IC2509 rose 2.69%, and IM2509 rose 3.40%. - Spot: The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 rose 1.96%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump announced a new round of tariff rates, which may have a negative impact on the market, but the market's reaction has become dull. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase, which is positive for the market. - As of July 10, 129 out of 147 A-share listed companies that have announced their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to be profitable, which is positive for the market [6][13][97]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the STAR 50 rose 0.98%, the SME 100 rose 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [16]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.73%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors strengthening significantly, while coal and banking sectors weakened slightly [21]. - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flow**: Industry main funds were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in electronics, computer, and national defense and military industries [25]. - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was low [29]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders net sold 6.61 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted-share lifting market value was 43.09 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 688.585 billion yuan [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to be supported by the fundamental recovery, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat desensitized after previous fluctuations in trade relations. With the release of listed companies' semi - annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about their H1 earnings. A series of pro - growth policies are taking effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive Q2 economic data. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching July Politburo meeting, market bulls may pre - position, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF main contract (2509) at 3972.0, up 15.0; IH main contract (2509) at 2740.4, up 13.4; IC main contract (2509) at 5854.2, up 24.2; IM main contract (2509) at 6231.6, up 11.8. IF sub - main contract (2507) at 3997.2, up 15.4; IH sub - main contract (2507) at 2745.4, up 14.0; IC sub - main contract (2507) at 5958.8, up 21.6; IM sub - main contract (2507) at 6375.2, up 10.2 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread at 1251.8, up 4.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread at 1961.6, up 8.6; IM - IC current - month contract spread at 416.4, down 12.4; IC - IH current - month contract spread at 3213.4, up 13.2; IM - IF current - month contract spread at 2378.0, down 3.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread at 3629.8, up 0.8 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF current - quarter to current - month at - 25.2, down 1.0; IF next - quarter to current - month at - 55.6, up 1.4; IH current - quarter to current - month at - 5.0, up 0.8; IH next - quarter to current - month at - 4, up 0.6; IC current - quarter to current - month at - 104.6, up 2.0; IC next - quarter to current - month at - 227.6, up 2.4; IM current - quarter to current - month at - 143.6, up 1.2; IM next - quarter to current - month at - 328.8, up 2.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions at - 29,557.00, down 216.0; IH top 20 net positions at - 14,304.00, up 275.0; IC top 20 net positions at - 10,512.00, down 601.0; IM top 20 net positions at - 36,476.00, up 278.0 [2]. Spot Prices - CSI 300 at 4010.02, up 18.6; SSE 50 at 2756.93, up 17.0; CSI 500 at 5983.05, up 29.6; CSI 1000 at 6406.57, up 16.1. IF main contract basis at - 38.0, up 0.6; IH main contract basis at - 16.5, down 0.6; IC main contract basis at - 128.9, up 1.2; IM main contract basis at - 175.0, up 1.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume at 15,150.68 billion yuan, down 123.53 billion yuan; margin trading balance at 18,687.97 billion yuan, up 38.65 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume at 1818.91 billion yuan, up 142.25 billion yuan; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation) at - 572.0 billion yuan, up 900.0 billion yuan; main funds at - 449.96 billion yuan (yesterday) and - 192.38 billion yuan (today) [2]. - Rising stock ratio at 54.37%, up 20.10%; Shibor at 1.316%, up 0.003%; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) at 29.00, up 5.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility at 11.69%, down 0.23%; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) at 29.60, down 12.40; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility at 11.69%, down 0.23%; CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility at 9.25%, up 0.05%; trading volume PCR at 51.64%, down 1.13%; open interest PCR at 73.00%, up 1.18% [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 6.00, up 2.00; technical aspect at 5.40, up 2.00; capital aspect at 6.50, up 1.90 [2]. Industry News - Trump announced on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he plans to impose tariffs on specific industries like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also mentioned a 10% tariff on each BRICS member country [2]. - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the US delegation will meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues, with members including the Treasury Secretary and the US Trade Representative [2]. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year (previous value down 0.1%), down 0.1% month - on - month (previous value down 0.2%); PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year (previous value down 3.3%), down 0.4% month - on - month (previous value down 0.4%) [2]. Key Events to Watch - St. Louis Fed President Sam Lem to speak on July 10 at 21:00; Fed Governor Waller to speak on July 11 at 1:15; China's June financial data release time is pending [3]

Group 1 - The current inflation situation in the Eurozone faces multiple downward pressures, with a warning that the recent rapid rise of the euro against the dollar and energy market volatility due to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts may cause inflation rates to deviate from the 2% target [1] - The probability of inflation remaining below the target level has exceeded the upside risks, according to the Lithuanian central bank governor [1] - Despite forecasts indicating that inflation will stabilize at 2% by 2027, current price trends remain uncertain, influenced by geopolitical risks and aggressive trade protectionism policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the July meeting is the most probable policy option, aligning with market expectations [3] - Since the start of the current easing cycle in June 2024, the European Central Bank has consecutively lowered the benchmark interest rate eight times, with expectations for further rate cuts in September [3] - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. is currently 10%, and the impact of existing trade barriers on the real economy has not yet fully manifested [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - A-share major indices fluctuated narrowly this week and all recorded declines, with only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling more than 1%. The four stock index futures also showed narrow fluctuations, and the differentiation between large and small-cap stocks was not obvious. The market trading activity significantly rebounded compared with last week. Overseas, the US extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation on China during the Dragon Boat Festival, while the Israel-Iran conflict intensified regional tensions, causing global risk assets to weaken. The US plan to impose additional tariffs on steel household appliances also had a negative impact on the market. Domestically, in May, the CPI turned from rising to falling month-on-month, the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, the year-on-year decline of PPI widened further, and the CPI-PPI gap widened, indicating continued pressure on prices. The scale of China's import and export trade further shrank in May due to tariff policies. Overall, the previous positive news from China-US trade negotiations has been mostly reflected in prices. The market is currently affected by overseas geopolitical situations and the repeated changes in the trade war. Meanwhile, domestic deflationary pressure persists, and the import and export are weak under tariff impacts, putting pressure on the economic fundamentals and limiting the upside space of the market. The market is in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, making it difficult for the stock market to strengthen significantly. After the short-term risk sentiment is released, the stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Contracts: IF2506 had a weekly increase of 0.03%, IH2506 decreased by 0.31%, IC2506 increased by 0.06%, and IM2506 decreased by 0.26%. - Spot Indices: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.46%, the China Securities 500 Index decreased by 0.38%, and the China Securities 1000 Index decreased by 0.76% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month; PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. From January to May 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. - International Events: The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The US will impose additional tariffs on steel household appliances starting from June 23. Israel attacked Iran on June 12 [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased by 1.89%, the SME 100 Index decreased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.22%. - Overseas Main Indices: As of Thursday, the S&P 500 increased by 0.75%, the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.53%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.25%. - Industry Sector Performance: Non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemical sectors strengthened significantly, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors declined significantly. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Most industry main funds showed net outflows, with the computer sector having a large net outflow. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: It first declined and then rose, and the capital market remained loose. - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.139 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share lifting market value was 62.877 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total trading volume of 592.392 billion yuan. The basis of the IF, IC, and IM main contracts oscillated and converged, while the basis of the IH main contract oscillated [16][17][21][25][29][30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: After the short-term risk sentiment is released, the stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now [85].

Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, predicts that the U.S. economy will face deflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience deflation, which could impact consumer spending and investment [1] - Wood emphasizes that technological advancements and productivity improvements are key factors contributing to this deflationary trend [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - The anticipated deflation may lead to a shift in investment strategies, favoring growth-oriented sectors that can thrive in a low-inflation environment [1] - Ark Invest is likely to focus on sectors such as technology and innovation, which are expected to benefit from the deflationary pressures [1]

Report Overview - The report is the "Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report" dated June 12, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment of the A - share market is complex. Although Sino - US trade relations show signs of further easing, which is short - term positive for the market, domestic deflation pressure persists, and the import and export trade is weak under tariff impacts, limiting the upside space of the market. Currently in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, large - cap blue - chip stocks are difficult to strengthen significantly, while technology stocks dominated by small and medium - cap stocks are undervalued and may rise in the short term. The strategy suggests temporarily observing for single - side trading and trying to go long IC/IM and short IF/IH for arbitrage [2] Data Summary Futures Contract Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: IF (2506) closed at 3883.6 (+2.2), IH (2506) at 2682.2 (+0.6), IC (2506) at 5780.0 (+12.0), IM (2506) at 6156.8 (+4.8). The closing prices of their corresponding secondary contracts also had various changes [2] - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts like IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] Spot Market Data - **Index Values and Changes**: The CSI 300 was at 3892.20 (-2.4), SSE 50 at 2691.28 (-0.9), CSI 500 at 5799.93 (+7.0), and CSI 1000 at 6192.22 (+5.7) [2] - **Market Turnover and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 13,036.23 billion yuan (+169.46 billion), margin trading balance was 18,189.18 billion yuan (+19.24 billion), and northbound trading volume was 1432.08 billion yuan (-147.47 billion) [2] - **Other Market Data**: The proportion of rising stocks was 42.96% (-20.07%), Shibor was 1.367% (+0.006%), and the closing prices and implied volatilities of IO options also had corresponding changes [2] Economic Data - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year (same as the previous value) and down 0.2% month - on - month (previous value up 0.1%); PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year (previous value down 2.7%) and down 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous value) [2] - **Import and Export**: In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year - on - year. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year - on - year [2] Upcoming Events - On June 12 at 20:30, the US May PPI, core PPI, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be released. On June 13 at 22:00, the US June one - year inflation rate expectation and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3400 points. The three major indices rose and then fell. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets significantly declined. Most industry sectors rose, with non-ferrous metals and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors strengthening significantly, while the medicine, biology, communication, and beauty care sectors declined against the market. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, on the price front, in May, the domestic CPI changed from an increase to a decrease month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month. The year-on-year decline of PPI further widened, and the CPI - PPI gap widened compared to last month, indicating that future prices still face certain pressure. On the trade front, affected by tariff policies, the scale of China's import and export trade further shrank in May. On the policy front, on June 10th (UK local time), the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day, starting in the morning and continuing after lunch. The market expects further relaxation of trade relations. - Overall, although the signs of further relaxation of China-US trade relations are beneficial to the market in the short term, domestic deflation pressure still exists, and imports and exports are weak under the impact of tariffs. The economic fundamentals are relatively pressured, limiting the upward space of the market. The market is currently in a policy vacuum period, with limited incremental funds, making it difficult to support the significant strengthening of large-cap blue-chip stocks with large market values. Technology stocks mainly composed of small and medium-cap stocks are currently undervalued and are expected to make up for the increase in the short term. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, one can try to go long on IC/IM and short on IF/IH [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub-main contracts generally rose. For example, the IF main contract (2506) was at 3878.8, up 34.4; the IH main contract (2506) was at 2682.4, up 21.0; the IC main contract (2506) was at 5761.2, up 42.8; and the IM main contract (2506) was at 6144.0, up 38.4 [2]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts showed various changes. For example, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1196.4, up 15.4; the IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1882.4, up 5.2; the IM - IC current - month contract spread was 382.8, down 12.8 [2]. - **Futures Time - Spread**: The time - spreads between different quarters and the current month of futures contracts also changed. For example, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 66.6, up 0.6; IH current - quarter minus current - month was - 38.4, down 1.6; IC current - quarter minus current - month was - 182.8, unchanged; IM current - quarter minus current - month was - 256.6, up 1.6 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 27,522.00, up 968.0; the IH top 20 net position was - 12,941.00, up 1318.0; the IC top 20 net position was - 6,184.00, up 973.0; the IM top 20 net position was - 35,743.00, up 2167.0 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of the corresponding futures main contracts also changed. For example, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 3894.63, up 29.2, and the IF main contract basis was - 15.8, up 8.6 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment Data - **Market Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased, with the daily trading volume at 12,866.77 billion yuan, down 1647.60 billion yuan. The margin trading balance increased, with the previous - trading - day balance at 18,169.95 billion yuan, up 8.68 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume increased, with the previous - trading - day total at 1579.54 billion yuan, up 166.58 billion yuan [2]. - **Fund Flows and Other Indicators**: The main - force funds showed a net outflow, with a net outflow of 565.78 billion yuan yesterday and a decrease of 21.92 billion yuan today. The proportion of rising stocks increased, with the daily proportion at 63.03%, up 39.75 percentage points. The Shibor decreased slightly, with the daily rate at 1.361%, down 0.001 percentage point [2]. - **Option - Related Data**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2506) increased, with a closing price of 23.80, up 9.80. The implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option decreased, at 12.25%, down 0.12 percentage points. The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2506) decreased, at 42.40, down 24.40. The implied volatility of the IO at - the - money put option increased, at 12.25%, up 0.66 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month, and decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, changing from an increase to a decrease. PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the decline further widening compared to the previous month. In the first five months of 2025, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In May, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, but the scale further shrank under the impact of tariff policies [2]. - **Policy News**: On June 10th (UK local time), the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism entered its second day, starting in the morning and continuing after lunch [2].

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Vujicic stated that it is currently unclear whether the U.S. tariff policy exerts deflationary pressure or inflationary impetus [1] - The ongoing turbulence in U.S. policy is prompting investors to shift their focus towards the European market [1] - The ECB is considering waiting for new economic forecasts and data before taking further action [1]

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/10 | 待定 中国5月金融数据 | 6/11 20:30 美国5月CPI、核心CPI | | --- | --- | | 6/12 20:30 美国5月PPI、核心PPI；美国截至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Swiss Franc is creating deflationary pressures in Switzerland, complicating the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ability to intervene due to the current U.S. administration's stance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by global market volatility and a flight to safety [3][4]. - The strong Swiss Franc has led to a decrease in import prices, contributing to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in import prices and a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, marking Switzerland's first return to deflation since the pandemic [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Response - The SNB may be forced to consider reintroducing negative interest rates as a response to the strong Swiss Franc, which could further lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to -0.25% by the end of the year [5][6]. - The SNB ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy in 2022, but the current economic conditions may necessitate a reconsideration of this stance [5][6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Intervention Challenges - The SNB's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is complicated by the U.S. government's potential response, as any direct intervention could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, reminiscent of the 2020 designation by the U.S. Treasury [6][7]. - The current geopolitical climate and the U.S. administration's trade policies make it difficult for the SNB to utilize foreign exchange interventions without facing significant repercussions [6][7].