1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets had significant rebounds last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The macro - expectation trading remains strong before the Politburo meeting, and the fundamental supply has not fully recovered, while the demand shows certain resilience. The coking coal and coke spot prices have started to increase, and the futures - cash resonance market is expected to continue [4][10]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to close all previous short positions and wait for the end of the rebound [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The coke futures rebounded significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The first round of spot price increase has started and is expected to be implemented this week. The coke 09 contract rose 5.81% to 1519.5 as of Friday's close [4][7][10]. - The spot prices of coke in different regions showed different trends. Some remained stable, while the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke decreased by 3 US dollars/ton [11]. - The freight rates for coke transportation remained stable [18]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operation rate of coking enterprises continued to decline, and the supply has not recovered. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average coke output was 64.08 tons, a decrease of 0.27 tons from the previous week [24][26]. 3.1.3 Demand - Steel mills increased their procurement, and the inventory of coking plants decreased smoothly. As of July 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 59.74%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [33][35]. - The speculative sentiment was good, the export profit remained positive, and the daily trading volume of building materials spot slightly improved. Although the export profit of coke will decline slightly after the first - round price increase, it will still remain positive, but the proportion of coke exports in demand is very low [36][38]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills and ports increased their inventories, while the upstream coking plants reduced their inventories, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of July 11, the total coke inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 930.96 tons, with the port inventory increasing by 8.96 tons to 200.08 tons, the independent coking enterprise inventory decreasing by 9.02 tons to 93.08 tons, and the 247 sample steel mill inventory increasing by 0.31 tons to 637.80 tons [39][41][44]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises was compressed, and the coking coal futures rebounded more strongly than coke, causing the coking profit on the coke futures market to decline slightly. The profit per ton of 30 independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan from the previous week, and the coking profit of the coke 09 contract decreased by 9.05 yuan/ton to 332.6 yuan/ton [49][51]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 86.5 to - 260.74 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11 to - 28.5 [53][55]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The coking coal futures rose significantly last week, and the short - term trend is bullish. The coking coal 09 contract rose 7.41% to 913 as of Friday's close [4][58]. - The spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends. The price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal increased by 30 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian coal at some ports changed, and the CFR price of Australian coking coal decreased slightly [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply in the producing areas recovered slowly, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi were still under production cuts. As of July 10, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 62.32%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average output of clean coal was 52.58 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons from the previous week [64][66][69]. - The import volume of coking coal decreased. The opening of the Naadam Festival in Mongolia led to a 5 - day closure of the port, reducing the import of Mongolian coal. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 43.79 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [70][72]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The upstream inventory decreased, coking enterprises replenished their stocks, port inventory increased, and the total inventory increased slightly. As of July 11, the total coking coal inventory increased by 4.53 tons to 25.7117 million tons, with the mine enterprise inventory decreasing by 32.43 tons to 3.7718 million tons, the port inventory increasing by 17.37 tons to 3.2164 million tons, the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants decreasing by 17.91 tons to 1.9707 million tons, the inventory of independent coking enterprises increasing by 44.17 tons to 8.9235 million tons, and the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreasing by 6.67 tons to 7.8293 million tons [73][75][78]. 3.2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 43.5 to - 68 compared with the previous week, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 16 to - 33 [88][90][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Macro - "anti - involution" brings strong bullish sentiment, but the zinc market sees increases in both ore and ingot supply. The demand side is in the off - season, and the zinc market's inventory accumulation trend is gradually emerging. The fundamentals are weak, and the rebound of zinc prices is limited. It is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the view of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. Continued attention should be paid to macro and downstream consumption conditions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The closing price of SMM1 zinc ingot average price increased by 0.09% to 22,360 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.13% to 22,380 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.09% to 2,738 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Raw Material End 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - As of July 11, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period; the total inventory of 7 ports was 333,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [20]. - As of July 10, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,064 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [26]. - As of July 11, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 66.48 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of July 10, the production profit was - 234 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - The import profit window was closed. As of July 11, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,523.72 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [40]. 3. Downstream Demand 3.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.81 percentage points to 58.29%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises increased [46][49]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of zinc alloy fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy increased by 0.09% to 23,055 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy increased by 0.08% to 23,605 yuan/ton [53]. - The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 4.8 percentage points to 53.94%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory increased [56][59][60]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide remained stable. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [67]. - The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.30 percentage points to 55.84%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [70][73]. 4. Inventory - As of July 14, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 86,100 tons, an increase in inventory. As of July 10, the SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [78]. - As of July 11, the SHFE inventory was 50,000 tons, an increase in inventory, and the LME inventory was 105,250 tons, a continuous decrease in inventory [81].

钢材期货周度报告 2025年07月14日 宏观情绪升温 短期高度有限 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周钢材价格触底反弹，全国螺纹钢均价环比上 涨35元/吨。受"反内卷"政策带动，市场整体情绪向好，叠加 焦煤提涨，北方限产消息等影响，原材成本支撑力度加大，市场 挺价拉涨情绪较浓。对于下周，供弱需弱基本面或有一定改善， 基本面情况向好，但需求弱势一定程度上制约了市场的自信心。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，铁水产量有所减少，而品 种产量也有所下降。需求端：由于山西限产消息的影响，期现货 市场迎来了快速拉涨的行情，市场投机需求加速释放，但淡季效 应依然影响着终端需求。成本端：由于铁矿石价格小幅上涨，废 钢价格稳中趋强，焦炭价格维持平稳，生产成本支撑力度维持韧 性。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congya ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并 不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新一轮供给侧变局中，尚未有时间表和实施的路线，但市场的氛围整体围绕产能变化预期、成本提升预期进行交易，且击鼓 传花在碳酸锂和工业硅上演之后，或正迈向情绪定价的高点。 反过度竞争在7月初提出之后，到目前为止，尚未公布明确的时间表或可直接实施的方案，这反映出实施的复杂性。参考过往 的行业低价竞争，未来的终局措施或以：建立成本锚定与违规惩戒机制、行政手段加速淘汰落后产能以及审慎补贴发放等方 式展开。 供给侧正成为商品当下定价的重中之重，从焦煤到光伏产业链。 后续成本锚定成为价格中枢的关键位置。 国产煤成本相对分化，山西国企精煤完全成本超1000元/吨（高人工成本+安全投 入），民企成本约700–900元/吨，当前现货价（山西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of the lithium carbonate futures market is due to domestic anti - involution measures, but the current market deviates significantly from the fundamentals, and the rebound height is limited under the loose supply - demand pattern [3]. - The urea market has seen a price drop on the futures side, and although export orders are being executed, the domestic supply - demand remains loose, and the subsequent quota issue may continue to affect the market, with limited room for a deep decline [4]. - The price of Shanghai copper has declined this week mainly due to the proposed 50% copper tariff by the US. The supply - side pressure has eased, and the market is under pressure. However, if the Fed's independence is compromised and the US dollar declines, it will support the market, and the downside space for copper is limited [9]. - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. The market should pay attention to the subsequent development of the situation in the Middle East. The current market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC +, and it is expected that crude oil prices will oscillate strongly in the near term [11]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it gradually enters the peak season [13]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, trade policies, and seasonal impacts [14][16][17]. - The price of soybean oil is approaching the pressure level of 8000 yuan/ton, and the supply is abundant while the demand is under pressure. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price trend [19]. - The price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly, and the supply is increasing. The subsequent demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. - The short - term sentiment in the steel market has improved, but the steel demand is greatly affected by seasonal factors. It is expected that the upward momentum of steel prices will be limited, and the market will continue to oscillate [25]. - The hot - rolled coil market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to production, inventory, PMI, and tariff policies [26]. - The short - term market for coking coal remains strong, mainly due to the phased reduction in supply and the expectation of capacity clearance [28]. Summary by Product Lithium Carbonate - The futures market rose nearly 4% today, with the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,650 yuan/ton and industrial - grade at 63,050 yuan/ton, both up 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - The supply is abundant, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 62% and an increase in June production to 74,000 tons. The inventory is accumulating, and the pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term [3]. - The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The consumption data of new - energy vehicles in June increased, with retail sales of 1.071 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [3]. Urea - The futures market opened lower and weakened today. The spot price has risen slightly since the weekend, mainly due to the strong performance of last week's futures [4]. - The supply side has pressure, with the daily output fluctuating around 200,000 tons, and new production capacity will be gradually put into operation [4]. - The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing. The inventory is decreasing, which boosts the market [4]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper has been affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut and the US tariff policy. The proposed 50% copper tariff by the US has led to a decline in prices [9]. - The supply - side pressure has eased, with the processing fees of copper smelters stabilizing, and the copper concentrate inventory increasing. The tight supply expectation has been alleviated [9]. - The downstream demand is weak, with a decline in the cable start - up rate in June and the air - conditioning industry entering the off - season [9]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks has reduced concerns about supply disruptions, but the subsequent development of the situation still needs attention [11]. - The market has factored in the accelerated production increase by OPEC + in August (an increase of 548,000 barrels per day), and OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years [11]. - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to factors such as the seasonal peak season and potential US sanctions on Russian oil [11]. Asphalt - The supply side has seen an increase in the start - up rate, with a planned production of 2.542 million tons in July, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [12]. - The downstream start - up rate has mostly declined, affected by funds and weather. The inventory of refineries has increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years [12]. - It is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread on dips as it enters the peak season [13]. PP - The downstream start - up rate has declined, and the US tariff policy is unfavorable for exports. The upstream propane import is restricted [14]. - The supply side has new production capacity, and the start - up rate of enterprises has increased. The inventory pressure is still large, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. The US tariff policy affects exports, and the upstream ethane import is restricted [15]. - New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has increased slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large, with a low - level oscillation expected [16]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The start - up rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The export is restricted by policies [17]. - The inventory is high, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The price of the main 09 contract has increased slightly, approaching the 8000 yuan/ton pressure level [18]. - The supply is abundant, with a good outlook for US soybean production and sufficient domestic supply in July [19]. - The demand is under pressure due to the price advantage of palm oil and the impact of high - temperature weather. In the long - term, the demand in the bio - fuel industry may affect the price [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of the main 09 contract has oscillated strongly, and the market sentiment has slightly improved [20]. - The supply is increasing, and the demand may increase with the rise in pig - breeding profits. The current downstream replenishment is weak [22]. - In the long - term, factors such as US soybean planting area and Sino - US tariffs need to be observed [22]. Rebar - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then falling, closing slightly higher". The supply reduction expectation is strong, but the actual implementation is limited [23]. - The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in daily average trading volume, but the weekly apparent consumption remains above 2.2 million tons [23]. - The inventory is decreasing, and the cost support is strong in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The futures market has shown a pattern of "rising and then being blocked, closing slightly higher". The supply pressure is increasing, and the weekly output is expected to exceed 3.25 million tons [26]. - The demand is weak, with the weekly apparent consumption remaining below 1.8 million tons. The inventory transfer from factories to social warehouses is slow [26]. - The cost provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [26]. Coking Coal - The price has increased today. The supply pressure has eased due to the reduction in Mongolian coal imports and the resumption of domestic mines [27]. - The market is affected by anti - involution measures, and the inventory has been transferred downward. The short - term market is strong [28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent closure of the Jing Le Group reflects a broader trend of restaurant closures in Hong Kong, with over 20 chain brands shutting down in the past six months, including long-established ones [1][2][3] - The closure of well-known brands such as "Hai Huang Congee Shop" and "Kam Cheong Steamed Milk" highlights the deteriorating business environment and financial crises faced by the industry [4][5] - The trend is not limited to local brands; international brands like "After You Dessert Café" and "Kintan" have also exited the Hong Kong market, indicating a widespread issue [9][10] Group 2 - High rental costs are identified as a significant challenge for restaurant operators in Hong Kong, with many citing increased rent as a reason for closure [16][18] - Changes in consumer behavior, including a shift towards spending in mainland China and a decline in spending by visitors to Hong Kong, have negatively impacted local restaurant revenues [20][21][30] - The number of restaurants in Hong Kong has not decreased despite the drop in demand, leading to an oversupply situation that exacerbates competition and contributes to the closure trend [33][34][45] Group 3 - The current oversupply in the restaurant market is attributed to a mismatch between supply and demand, with many new establishments opening during a period of increased local consumption that has since declined [36][43] - It is projected that up to 2,000 more restaurants may need to close to align with the pre-pandemic market conditions, indicating a necessary market correction [46][47] - The ongoing closures are viewed as a natural market adjustment process, where weaker businesses are eliminated, allowing for a potential rebalancing of the industry [47]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing pressure from weak demand and high costs, leading to a focus on policy-driven capacity optimization to alleviate profitability issues [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index has rebounded by 11.86% since June 23, while the Wind All A Index increased by 6.53% during the same period [1]. - In July, the Shenyin Wanguo Steel Index rose by 9.31%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024, with 21 stocks in the steel sector rising over 10% [4]. Group 2: Company Earnings Forecasts - Eight steel companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Shougang Co. expecting a net profit of 642 to 672 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.62% to 70.22% [3]. - Shandong Steel anticipates a net profit of 12.71 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.1 million yuan [2]. - Fushun Special Steel and Hangang Co. are expected to report losses, with Fushun projecting a loss of 260 to 300 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 214.06% to 231.6% [3]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The steel industry has been in a downward cycle for four years, with approximately 30% of steel companies still reporting losses as of the latest financial reports [5]. - The demand for steel, particularly from the real estate sector, has significantly declined, with demand dropping from 377 million tons in March 2020 to 215 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 42.9% [5]. - The focus on cost reduction has become prevalent among steel companies, with raw material prices significantly impacting profitability [5]. Group 4: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent central government meetings have emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacity, strengthening expectations for supply contraction in the steel industry [4][6]. - The current round of "anti-involution" policies aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on differentiated control of production based on efficiency and environmental standards [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

| [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《关注供给侧改革预期升温带来的投资机 会》 ——2025 年 07月 07日 《关注经贸协议最终落地情况》 ——2025 年 07月 01日 《中东地缘冲突再升级，资本市场短期受 影响》 ——2025 年 06月 25日 A 股投资者风险偏好有望保持高位 ——固收&宏观周报（20250707-20250713） [Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年07月14日 [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股下跌，纳斯达克中国科技股与恒生指数上涨。 过去一周（20250707-20250713），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与道 琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-0.08%、-0.31%与-1.02%，纳斯达克中国 科技股指数变化 1.83%；同时期恒生指数变化 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Market performance: Last Friday, precious metal prices rose, and silver prices soared due to expectations of additional tariffs [1]. - Fundamental factors: China and the US foreign ministers met in Kuala Lumpur, agreeing to strengthen communication and dialogue. Trump announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. Fed Chairman Powell might consider resigning. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in various locations changed [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, considering the unchanged de - dollarization logic, it is recommended to go long. For silver, short - term risk - avoidance is advised with long positions closed, but in the long - term, industrial silver use is turning downward [1]. Group 2: Base Metals Copper - Market performance: On Friday, copper prices oscillated weakly [2]. - Fundamental factors: Trump unexpectedly increased tariffs on most countries, leading to lower market risk appetite. After the proposed 50% tariff on copper on August 1st, London and domestic inventories increased. The long - term copper price has upward momentum due to the tight copper mine situation and global fiscal expansion expectations [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with an increase in weekly operating capacity. Demand - side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased [2]. - Trading strategy: The domestic aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, supporting the price. However, due to macro uncertainties and weak downstream demand, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Alumina - Market performance: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 2.83% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, alumina plants' production was stable. Demand - side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Some northern alumina plants are in the maintenance period, causing a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended to operate within a range and partially close long positions [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Thursday, the main 09 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 55 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 13,427 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rebounded due to the "anti - involution" sentiment. Supply - side, Yunnan contributed a small increase in start - up. Demand - side, polysilicon start - up was stable, organic silicon production was stable, and the aluminum alloy downstream was in the off - season [3]. - Trading strategy: After the futures price rebound, different cost manufacturers will gradually hedge. There is an expectation of increased start - up, but short - term support exists. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: On Friday, the main LC2509 contract closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the expected production in July increased by 3.92% month - on - month. Demand - side, the downstream production plan increased marginally, but inventory continued to reach new highs [3]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell the far - month LC2511 contract at high levels [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Friday, the main 08 contract opened higher and then oscillated. The price decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 12,676 lots [3]. - Fundamental factors: Last week, the market rose significantly due to "anti - involution" expectations. Supply - side, production increased slightly, and there is a复产 expectation. Demand - side, the production plan of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased in July [3]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the progress of leading enterprises in solving supply - demand imbalances and the actual procurement price in the silicon wafer market next week. Partially close long positions [3]. Tin - Market performance: On Friday, tin prices oscillated [3]. - Fundamental factors: Trump's additional tariffs slightly suppressed risk appetite. Supply - side, the tin mine situation remained tight, but the复产 expectation pressured the price. Demand - side, downstream procurement was on - demand, and global weekly inventory decreased [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - oscillation - within - a - range approach [3]. Group 3: Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar oscillated weakly, closing at 3,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of building materials were both weak, but low production reduced inventory pressure. The supply and demand of steel were balanced. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will have a significant impact this week [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and try the 10/1 reverse spread of rebar. The reference range for RB10 is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore oscillated strongly, closing at 764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: The supply and demand of iron ore were neutral. Steel mill profits expanded marginally, and production will remain stable. Supply followed the seasonal pattern. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will be important this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. Layout a long position in the 2605 coil - to - ore ratio. The reference range for I09 is 750 - 780 [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal oscillated strongly, closing at 921.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [4]. - Fundamental factors: Iron production decreased slightly, and steel mill profits expanded. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the first round of price increases is being discussed. Supply - side inventory is differentiated. Market sentiment improved, and macro data will matter this week [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for JM09 is 890 - 930 [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell due to a slightly bearish USDA report [5]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, the near - term international supply is loose, and the long - term is expected to be loose. Demand - side, South America is dominant in the short - term, and there are uncertainties in US soybean production and tariff policies [5]. - Trading strategy: Short - term, US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost. Pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract of corn continued to decline, and the spot price also fell [5][6]. - Fundamental factors: This year's supply - demand is tightening marginally. Substitute imports decreased, but wheat substitution and import grain auctions affect the price. The spot price is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the low auction turnover rate of imported corn [6]. Sugar - Market performance: ICE raw sugar 10 contract had a weekly increase of 1.85%, and Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract had a weekly increase of 0.21% [6]. - Fundamental factors: The domestic commodity market sentiment was good, and domestic and international markets rebounded together. Import sugar arrivals are increasing, and the 09 contract is expected to be weak [6]. - Trading strategy: In the futures market, go short at high levels; in the options market, sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market performance: Last Friday, US cotton prices oscillated and fell. Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: International data adjustments had little impact. Market sentiment was bearish. Domestically, low commercial inventories were concerned, but downstream start - up rates decreased and product inventories increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Recently, palm oil has been strong, and the trading center has shifted upward [6]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, production in the producing areas weakened marginally. Demand - side, exports decreased month - on - month, but there is support in annual demand [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, P is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to overweight in the sector, and the annual supply is expected to be tight. Pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price increased [6]. - Fundamental factors: Farmers are in losses, and old hen culling is expected to decrease. Supply is high, and demand is affected by price and weather. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to sufficient supply and cost support [6]. Hogs - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs oscillated narrowly, and the spot price had a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - Fundamental factors: Consumption is seasonally weak, slaughterhouses are reducing losses, and supply is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the medium - term [6]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate and adjust due to weak demand [6]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract had a weekly increase of 0.49%. Apple prices in Shandong were stable [6][7]. - Fundamental factors: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples increased. There are differences in this year's production. Current consumption is weak, and the market has few contradictions [7]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [7]. Group 5: Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: On Friday, the main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in North China was 7,200 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, new plants were put into operation, and domestic supply increased. Import is expected to decrease. Demand - side, it is the end of the off - season for agricultural film [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [7]. PVC - Market performance: The v09 contract closed at 4,980, a decrease of 0.5% [7]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory is accumulating. Wait for the implementation of production - cut policies [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see as the rebound lacks momentum [7]. PTA - Market performance: PX CFR China price was 837 US dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4,710 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental factors: PX supply is low, and PTA supply is increasing. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX, look for short - term positive spread opportunities in PTA, and short - sell processing fees in the long - term [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1,086, an increase of 2% [7][8]. - Fundamental factors: Spot sales improved, supply is increasing, and inventory is decreasing. The downstream situation is not good, and the valuation is complex [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see and follow the implementation of production - cut policies [8]. PP - Market performance: On Friday, the main PP contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,100 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. The export situation of downstream products is worthy of attention [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate weakly. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [8]. MEG - Market performance: The East China spot price of MEG was 4,384 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is at a high level, and inventory is at a low level. Polyester load decreased, and the supply - demand is balanced [8]. - Trading strategy: MEG is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Last week, oil prices oscillated strongly due to low inventory and stable demand [8]. - Fundamental factors: US gasoline demand was stable. OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries will increase production, and the market is expected to be oversupplied, especially in the fourth quarter [8]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to inventory accumulation and short - sell at high levels [8]. EB - Market performance: On Friday, the main EB contract oscillated slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,730 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [8][9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply - side, pure benzene and styrene inventories have different trends. Demand - side, downstream profits are poor, and product inventory is high. Export demand is a key factor [8][9]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will oscillate. In the long - term, short - sell far - month contracts at high levels [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract closed at 1,214, a decrease of 0.9% [9]. - Fundamental factors: Supply increased as a plant resumed production, and inventory accumulated. Downstream demand from photovoltaic glass is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell at high levels as the fundamentals are weak [9].