中期策略：蓄力新高——聚焦龙头化、国产化、全球 20250622 摘要 全球资金呈现去美元化趋势，回流配置中国市场，包括港股和 A 股资产， 且自 2024 年 9 月以来，中国政策组合拳及与港交所联动，加速资本市 场制度改革，科创板、创业板制度变化积极拥抱科技新兴行业。 中国股票市场在基本面、产业、流动性、风险偏好和政策制度变化等多 重因素驱动下，有望迎来新的高点，行业配置方面，PCB、海外算力等 领域备受关注，同时"龙头化、国产化和全球化"成为未来发展的重要 方向。 弱美元周期下，美债需求下降，中日两国对美债和美股净流入减少，资 金流向黄金市场以规避地缘冲突风险。国内政策偏向稳定，宏观经济修 复需等待企业端贷款脉冲上行。 外资和国内资金是推动权益资产上行的重要增量，外资持有市值维持在 3 万亿以上，内资对港股定价权提升，南向资金成交占比维持高位，新 消费、新经济领域成为内资重点投资方向。 Q&A 当前中国经济面临哪些挑战和机遇？ 当前中国经济面临的挑战主要来自宏观经济基本面的压力，特别是贸易战之后， 地方消费数据、PMI 等指标表现不佳。短期内，传统经济层面仍处于摸底过程。 然而，从更长周期来看，中国的产 ...

当下如何看周期的机会？20250622 摘要 地缘政治冲突可能加剧资源民族主义，扰动有色金属供应链。美国或在 经济衰退压力下实施财政和货币双宽松政策，即赤字货币化，从而影响 有色金属市场。 2025 年有色金属市场行情分上下半场，上半场通过关税调整生产关系， 带来去美元化和供应扰动机会。目前处于上半场后期，风险事件驱动的 去美元化已到兑现阶段，但需求尚未倒逼宽松政策，市场意兴阑珊。 黄金未来呈现小回调大上涨趋势，每次回调都是介入机会，因全球财富 对黄金配置不足。下半场实际利率下降将进一步驱动金价上涨，推荐招 金矿业、中润资源等阿尔法品种。 刚果金钴矿出口禁令导致钴价大涨，类似中国 2011 年稀土战略博弈。 若禁令持续，下游库存可能出清，提升估值。镍价历史底部，三元材料 需求旺盛，印尼镍钴业务资产估值或提升，利好华友钴业、寒锐钴业等。 2025 年财政政策积极前置发力，政府债券发行快，余额增速提升，对 社会融资贡献大。上半年财政支出快，对基建和消费有直接作用，如以 旧换新补贴推动家电消费增速达 50%以上。 Q&A 当前国际国内形势复杂，对周期行业的影响及政策预期如何？ 当前国际形势方面，以色列和伊朗之间的冲 ...

美股美债美元分别在定价什么？20250622 摘要 美股近期反弹主要由散户情绪和资金驱动，特别是对小盘科技股的短期 投机，而机构投资者则因 AI 技术放缓、贫富差距及财政问题持谨慎态度。 外国投资者因需应对汇兑损失风险，对美股持更为谨慎态度，而美国投 资者更关注资产类别间的转换，对汇率波动关注较少，导致投资策略差 异。 美债定价机制短期反映衰退和降息预期，长期则反映财政可持续性担忧 及关税战对美元信用的冲击，导致美债收益率曲线陡峭化。 美国经济数据参差不齐，劳动力市场走弱，消费意愿下降，服务业疲软， 预示未来经济活动可能减弱，影响美债短期定价。 关税战导致美债长期期限溢价上升，加剧了亚洲货币对美元的升值趋势， 但预计关税威胁将在 8 月左右淡化，长期财政问题仍存。 市场普遍预期未来十年美元将进入长期走弱周期，可能降至 70 左右， 反映对特朗普改革及解决美国长期财政问题能力的不信任。 美国科技与军事实力不再独一无二，动摇了美元享受高估值溢价的基础， 地缘政治控制力下降也削弱了持有美元作为储备货币的动机。 Q&A 今年以来美股、美债和美元的表现如何？ 2025 年初至今，美股、美债和美元的表现各不相同。美股在 ...

美债如何牵引全球大类资产？20250622 摘要 美国例外论预期转变为去美元化预期，导致股债及大类资产相关性发生 变化，传统避险功能减弱。美债利率与美元相关性下降，美债、美股反 弹，美元指数下行。 美国 10 年期期限溢价已达近十年高点。美联储降息节奏及幅度将直接 影响美债利率走势和市场对美债的需求，进而影响交易机会。预计美联 储最早四季度重启降息。 今年以来美元指数贬值约 7%，主要原因是市场预期转向去美元化以及 全球资金流动变化。部分国家因债务风险和关税政策等因素减少持有美 债。 欧元区公债市场资金回流对美元形成贬值压力。今年 3 月至 5 月，欧元 区公债市场资金回流明显，与 2024 年初净流出形成对比。 全球资金流动显著影响各国主权债务利率。资金从美债市场流出，回流 至欧元区公债市场，使得欧元区 10 年期公债利率保持相对平稳。 外汇套保后的欧元区、德国及日本主权利率显示出外资持有这些国家主 权证券积极性的提升，表明全球资本配置正在发生变化。 Q&A 全球资金流动显著影响各国主权债务利率。今年 3 月至 5 月期间，我们观察到 资金从美债市场向其他方向流动，例如回流至欧元区公债市场。这一趋势使得 欧 ...

策略周观点：波动上升，后市如何看？20250622 摘要 港股上半年表现强劲，受益于资金回流和关税趋缓，但当前估值较高， ERP 指数较低。然而，中国资产在全球估值中仍具洼地效应，人民币升 值将增强中国股票类资产弹性，中长期仍有重估空间。 预计美联储 9 月可能首次降息，但降息幅度有限，或为应对式而非大幅 宽松。美国债务上限解决后，大规模发债可能导致实体经济流动性抽离， 美债利率上升，短期内对美股形成挤压。 港元汇率及利率对香港市场有重要影响，资金回流带动港元升值。香港 联系汇率制度透明，但 HIBOR 利率下降可能扩大套息交易空间，对港 股影响边际且局部，核心仍取决于经济基本面。 港股未来一年的核心影响因素是经济修复，目前股权风险溢价处于历史 低位，恒生指数与中美制造业 PMI 相关性高。预计今年财政力度将托举 经济，香港非金融海外中资股盈利增速或超预期。 三季度是解禁高峰期，市场波动可能较高，高股息加必须消费品配置偏 防御。若非基本面因素造成回撤，将提供增配香港核心资产空间，包括 科技、大众消费、传统消费及大金融领域。 Q&A 2025 年下半年海外市场的整体展望是什么？ 2025 年下半年，海外市场预计 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, and is expected to cut interest rates twice by a total of 50 basis points in 2025. The U.S. economy may face a "stagflation-like" environment with lower growth but resilience and rising inflation. The Fed will likely remain on hold until the economic fundamentals are clear, but the possibility of a rate cut increases if the labor market cools further [3][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Fed Meeting Main Highlights - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the fourth consecutive hold, in line with market expectations. It raised inflation expectations and lowered GDP growth expectations for 2025 - 2027. The 2025, 2026, 2027 year - end core PCE inflation expectations were raised to 3.1%, 2.4%, 2.1% respectively, and GDP growth expectations were lowered to 1.4%, 1.6%, 1.8% respectively [3]. - The Fed's dot - plot shows 2025 is expected to have two rate cuts of 50 basis points, consistent with March expectations, but 2026 is expected to have only a 25 - basis - point cut. Among 19 officials, 7 think there will be no cut in 2025, 2 expect one cut, 8 expect two cuts, and 2 expect three cuts [4]. - Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. economy is stable, but trade and fiscal policy adjustments are uncertain. Tariffs may push up prices and cause inflation pressure, and the labor market does not call for a rate cut. Due to tariff uncertainties, the Fed is on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Price Trends of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, major asset prices fluctuated little. U.S. stocks had mixed performance: the S&P 500 fell 0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.10%, the Nasdaq rose 0.13%, the Nasdaq 100 was flat, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.52%. The VIX fell 6.71% [10]. - In the bond market, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was flat, and the two - year yield fell 1.04 basis points. The U.S. dollar index had a U - shaped reversal and rose slightly over 0.1%. The yen fell 0.1%, and the Australian dollar rose over 0.5%. The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell 29 points [10][11]. - Crude oil prices were affected by geopolitical risks. WTI July crude futures closed at $75.14/barrel, and Brent August crude futures closed at $76.70/barrel. European natural gas prices rose for six consecutive days. Gold futures fell about 0.7%, copper futures rose about 0.9%, platinum reached an 11 - year high, and silver fell [11][12][13]. 3.3 Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - Overseas macro - environment remained stable despite global trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The U.S. May unemployment rate was 4.2%, and non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, slightly lower than the previous value but higher than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [14]. - U.S. May inflation was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.8% year - on - year. Overseas macro - data stability helps ease recession concerns and repair stock market valuations [16][17]. - The U.S. economy may face a "stagflation - like" environment. The Fed will likely remain on hold, but the probability of a rate cut increases if the labor market cools. Market expectations are in line with the dot - plot, with a 66% probability of a September rate cut and a 68% chance of a 50 - basis - point or more cut by December [19]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Trends - U.S. stocks have recovered most of the losses since "Liberation Day" but may face resistance to further upside due to tariff uncertainties [21]. - U.S. Treasury yields remain around 4.4%. Although the Fed may cut rates, long - term inflation recovery may limit the decline of long - end yields [21]. - For precious metals, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends enhance their value. Gold has upward potential, and silver may have more room for growth given the high gold - silver ratio [21]. - For commodities, Fed rate cuts and lower recession risks are positive, but they are mainly determined by geopolitical risks and China's supply - demand contradictions. Global - priced commodities are expected to outperform domestic - priced ones [21]. - The U.S. dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle, and the RMB may enter an appreciation channel with China's economic recovery [22]. - For A - shares, weak price indices, negative PPI, and low nominal GDP growth restrict corporate profit rebounds. The current stock index may face resistance to rising and has room to fall, waiting for macro - economic recovery [22][23].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 刚果金钴出口禁令再延 3 个月，钴价有望突 破前高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 钴方面，刚果金宣布延长钴出口禁令 3 个月，钴价将迎来二轮上涨，并有望突破前高。相较于 2 月底禁令发布后更多来自于情绪修复的钴价上涨，考虑到下半年将面临原料到港的真空期， 且后续刚果金政策不定，本轮现货矛盾或更为突出，有部分下游开始出现由于原料短缺而带来 的产能利用率下降。本轮钴价上行有望突破前高并看涨至 30 万/吨。内外对冲下，工业金属维 稳。联储降息预期增强对冲国内经济预期转弱：一方面，美国零售、新屋销售等数据走弱，强 化联储降息预期，美债由此走弱利好大宗商品，另一方面，国内经济数据回落弱化需求展望， 压制工业金属价格，二者对冲下，工业金属商品本周整体维稳。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S049051908 ...

Group 1 - The escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly Israel's airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, has significantly impacted oil and gold prices, with gold rising by $24 to a peak of $3,398 per ounce and Brent crude oil surging by 5.7% to $81.4 per barrel [1][3] - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which accounts for 40% of global oil trade, could lead to oil prices soaring to $120 per barrel, as indicated by JPMorgan [3] - Historical trends show that geopolitical conflicts often lead to initial spikes in gold and oil prices, followed by profit-taking as market sentiment stabilizes [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting highlighted concerns over inflation, complicating the decision to lower interest rates amidst rising oil prices that could further elevate inflation [3][4] - Goldman Sachs has recommended an overweight position in gold and an underweight position in oil for the next five years, citing a global trend towards de-dollarization and increased gold reserves by central banks, including China's [4] - The current oil market is characterized by short-term supply tightness, but long-term price movements will depend on OPEC+ production plans and demand fluctuations, with a focus on fundamental supply and demand dynamics [4] Group 3 - The recent performance of gold ETFs and mining stocks indicates strong investor interest, with companies like Western Gold experiencing significant gains [4] - The decline in U.S. stock futures is attributed to a shift in funds towards safe-haven assets, although the resilience of the U.S. economy suggests potential for recovery in tech stocks if the Fed signals interest rate cuts [4][5] - Long-term investment strategies should consider gradual allocations to gold ETFs and quality mining stocks, while caution is advised against chasing high oil prices [5]

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年06月22日 01 黄金：地缘政治主导金价 白银：高位回落 07 锡：5月进口超预期，锡价承压 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：LME现货偏强，但宏观存不确定性，价格难突破震荡区间 铝：现实犹强，等待库存拐点确认 氧化铝：库存犹低，窄幅震荡 04 铸造铝合金：淡季程度走深，价格震荡偏 ...

❑ 在此进程中，金融机构面临三方面机遇与挑战：第一，低利率环境下，境 内资金为追求更高回报和平衡风险收益进行全球配置的需求和必要性上 升，"去美元化"趋势下，人民币汇率可能升值，为资本金融项目可兑换 程度提升和境内主体增持境外证券资产创造条件。第二，更大规模的对外 资产意味着风险传染程度加剧、风险类别增加，金融机构应针对海外资产 提升风险意识和风险管理能力。第三，资本金融项目双向开放将带来资金 双向流动的增加，外资流入国内金融市场仍具有较大潜力，同样给国内机 构投资者带来业务机会。 谢亚轩 S1090511030010 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 刘亚欣 S1090516100001 liuyaxin@cmschina.com.cn 低利率时代的中国跨境资本流动和资产配置 事件：2025年6月18日，中国人民银行副行长、国家外汇局局长朱鹤新在2025 陆家嘴论坛上的"坚定推进外汇领域深层次改革和高水平开放，积极服务经济 高质量发展" 主题演讲中提出，近期将新发放一批合格境内机构投资者 （QDII）投资额度，有序满足境内主体境外投资合理需求。 核心观点： 率下滑和风险收益平衡的双重挑战。在此背景 ...