M1-RM1 M1-5 259 -20 ===== 18/19 -==== 22/23 == ===== 19/20 -==== 23/24 ------ 20/21 —— 24/25 - 25/26 RM1-5 125 -22 1 200 1200 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 38 900 364 现货价差(厂东) 300 豆粕-菜粕 27 548 盘面价差(主力) 04/75 07/26 03/24 04/74 05/25 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 盘面榨利(元/吨) 涨跌 (美分/蒲) 42. 00 巴西 #N/A 305 5 进口大豆盘面毛利(元/吨) 大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) ====== 巴西4月 ======= 巴西2月 ====== 巴西3月 = ====== 巴西2月 ======= 巴西3月 ====· 巴西4月 ======= 巴西5月 ===== 巴西6月 巴西6月 ====== 巴西7月 ===== 巴西8月 -- 巴西9月 -- 巴西10月 ------ 巴西8月 -- 巴西9月 -- 巴西10月 一巴西11月 巴西11月 400 - ----- 巴 ...

油脂油料产业日报 2025/09/15 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

9月12日，商务部新闻发言人表示，国务院副总理何立峰将于14日率团赴西班牙与美国财政部长贝森特 举行会谈。值得注意的是，TikTok将成为本次中美会谈的重要议题之一。与中美日内瓦、伦敦和斯德哥 尔摩的会谈议程相比，这是中美在会谈中首次明确将TikTok列为谈判议题。 在TikTok问题上，中方的谈判立场是一贯和明确的。首先，美方通过各种所谓"威逼利诱"策略，打压在 美中资企业，其行为严重违背公平公正原则。中方将在谈判中坚决维护中资企业合法权益，要求美方为 包含TikTok在内的中资企业提供开放、公平、公正、非歧视的营商环境。其次，中方将在坚持相互尊 重、平等协商的基础上，在谈判中尊重中资企业的意愿，在符合市场原则基础上与美方就TikTok问题平 等谈判。再次，美方应明白，施压与胁迫并不能为美方在谈判桌上赢得任何优势，反而会破坏平等尊重 的谈判氛围。若美方在谈判中一意孤行，试图继续以施压迫使中方在TikTok问题上让步，中方对此绝不 会答应。如美方损害中方利益，中方将坚决采取有力措施，维护自身正当权益。 （国际关系学院国际政治系 孙冰岩 讲师） 责任编辑：张恒星 TikTok成为中美贸易谈判"问题"，起因于美国 ...

粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3088元/吨，较前日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.72%；菜粕2601合约2567元/吨，较前 日变动+34元/吨，幅度+1.34%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3030元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M01-58， 较前日变动-32；江苏地区豆粕现货2970元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-118，较前日变动-12；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-118，较前日变动-12。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2680元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+113，较前日变动-14。 农产品日报 | 2025-09-12 购销清淡，豆粕维持震荡 近期市场资讯，9月10日，阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，该国2025/26年度大豆种植面积预计将较上年减少 4.3%至1,760万公顷。 市场分析 当前美豆生长情况良好，优良率处于历史高位，Profarmer本年度的田间调查也对新季单产情况较为乐观，未来仍 需持续关注USDA对于新季美豆的调整情况。国内方面，当前大豆到港量依旧偏高，国 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are also increasing, with the trading logic focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals, energy - chemicals, and glass are likely to oscillate; non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be slightly stronger; and agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand factors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Overseas: US August CPI reached a new high this year, and initial jobless claims soared. The market fully prices in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are on the rise [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals may oscillate; non - ferrous metals may be slightly stronger; energy - chemicals may oscillate; precious metals may be strong at high levels [2]. Stock Index - Driven by semiconductor, AI, and consumer electronics sectors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With improved fundamentals, increased policy expectations, and reduced external risks, short - term market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market is weak, with low trading volume. Demand varies by product, with hot - rolled coil demand rising by 208,000 tons and rebar demand falling by 40,000 tons. Supply is increasing, and cost support is strengthening. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices slightly declined. After the military parade, steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore supply has decreased. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating. Production in different regions has different trends, and the market is in a state of game [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and profits have slightly increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: CPI data meets expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation is rising. Domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term interest - rate cut expectation may support prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are rising, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation, and the medium - term upward space is limited [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by maintenance and tight mines, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating due to the possible resumption of a lithium mine [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be slightly stronger due to the industry conference and high - level oscillation of polysilicon [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy - Chemicals - **Methanol**: Port spot prices are strong, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure and potential demand improvement [12][13]. - **PP**: The market is in consolidation. Supply has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly with policy support [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is adjusted. Supply will increase after maintenance, and demand is slowly rising. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Urea**: The market is weak. Supply is under pressure, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to decline further [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The area of drought - affected soybean - growing regions in the US has expanded, and the probability of La Nina in the fourth quarter has increased to 71%. The market is affected by expected yield and export adjustments [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Rapeseed meal has potential for upward movement [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of US soybean oil rose. Domestic oil prices are in narrow - range adjustment, and rapeseed oil has a strong sentiment of reluctant to sell [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose slightly, but inventory is high, and export demand is weak [18]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn price is expected to increase slightly, and farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices have stabilized after a decline. The supply is expected to increase in September, and prices may be under pressure in October - November [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On September 11, the A-share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and a large trading volume. However, different futures varieties had diverse trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relations, international policies, and macro - economic conditions [1] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 11, the three major A - share indices soared. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 24377 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4596 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4548.03, a rise of 102.67 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 11, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1639.8, a rise of 29.7. The coking coal weighted index had a wide - range shock, closing at 1147.7 yuan, a rise of 28.8. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a range of 50/55 yuan/ton, and the iron - water output declined significantly. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, with more auction failures. Mine safety supervision was strict, and the resumption of production of sample mines was slow, but the upstream mine inventory began to decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 5282.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.36%, and the export of coke was 350.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the improvement of Brazilian ethanol prices and the decline of German sugar production, the US sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. Affected by the stabilization and rebound of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose on Thursday. A well - known industry institution suggested that India should allow 2 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 market year due to supply surplus [3] Rubber - Mexico planned to impose a maximum 50% tariff on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and textiles from China and other countries without a trade agreement with Mexico. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday. In August, Vietnam's rubber export volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month, and Cote d'Ivoire's export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Soybean Meal - On September 11, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The upcoming soybean harvest in the US increased the seasonal supply pressure. As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 season was 541100 tons. Brazil's soybean sowing season started earlier, and Argentina's new - season soybean planting area was expected to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year to 17.6 million hectares. In the domestic market, on September 11, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The M2601 main contract closed at 2088 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.72%. The large import of soybeans, sufficient supply, high - level operation of factories, and high - volume crushing led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, putting pressure on prices. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations made the market have expectations of a decline in long - term supply, resulting in a fluctuating price [4][5] Live Pigs - On September 11, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.04%. In September, the production capacity was in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the daily average slaughter of group pig enterprises increased month - on - month. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption seasons were approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption was slow, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose [5] Palm Oil - On September 11, the palm oil futures market stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9334, the lowest was 9208, and the closing price was 9330, a rise of 0.93% from the previous day. From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased compared with the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - The high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the weakening of the US dollar increased the allocation value of copper, providing upward momentum for the Shanghai copper price. However, global trade frictions were still uncertain, and the tight supply pattern of mines was difficult to change in the short term. With the deepening of the traditional consumption season and the promotion of relevant industrial policies, the downstream demand was expected to be further released, especially the increasing demand from the new energy and power industries, but the recovery speed of traditional consumption areas remained to be seen [6] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13830 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 163 lots compared with the previous trading day. Pakistan's first genetically modified cotton was developed and was being tested in some areas, with a yield more than three times the current national average [6] Iron Ore - On September 11, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down with a decline of 0.81%, at 795.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume and port arrival volume decreased, and the iron - water output declined significantly. However, due to the good profits of steel mills, the demand for iron - water was expected to recover, and the short - term iron ore price fluctuated [6] Asphalt - On September 11, the 2511 main contract of asphalt closed up with a rise of 0.76%, at 3463 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, but the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers decreased. Affected by weather, the demand showed the characteristic of "peak season without prosperity", and the short - term price fluctuated [7] Logs - On September 11, the log futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot trading was weak [7][8] Steel - On September 11, rb2601 closed at 3092 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3334 yuan/ton. Some steel mills resumed production this week, increasing the consumption of iron ore. After the first - round price cut of coke, it was weakly stable. Due to the slow recovery of downstream terminal demand in "Golden September", high - price sales were difficult, and the decline of rebar and iron ore futures on Thursday intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, resulting in repeated price fluctuations in the short term [8] Alumina - On September 11, ao2601 closed at 2945 yuan/ton. Alumina maintained a weak and fluctuating operation. Supply surplus and warehouse receipt pressure were the upper limits, but the support around the full - cost of 2850 yuan was strengthening. The price stability depended on the interruption of Guinea's ore supply and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. If there were disturbances in the ore end and the rebound of aluminum prices, alumina might have a phased recovery in the fourth quarter [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 11, al2510 closed at 20915 yuan/ton. The current aluminum market had multiple positive factors in the macro - aspect, providing strong support for the price. However, downstream industries were cautious in purchasing, and the release of inventory demand was limited. Affected by weak cost support and bearish market sentiment, the electrolytic aluminum price would remain strong, but attention should be paid to raw material prices and downstream actual demand [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the strategy is neutral [3][4] - For the corn sector, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent - good rate, and future USDA adjustments to new - season US soybeans need attention. In China, soybean arrivals are high, supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and new - season US soybean yields [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of new - season grains is increasing, and the overall supply is loose. Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3075 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2550 yuan/ton, a change of + 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of September 7, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 64%, slightly higher than the expected 63% but lower than last week and the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 21%. As of September 4, the US soybean export inspection volume was 45.22 tons. The 2025/26 cumulative export inspection volume was 24.86 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.10% [2] 3.2 Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2214 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.76%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2510 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US Market: As of September 7, the US corn excellent - good rate was 68%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but the highest since 2018. The corn harvest rate was 4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] 3.3 Market Analysis (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - US: The growth of US soybeans is good, and the excellent - good rate is at a historical high. Future attention should be paid to USDA's adjustments to new - season US soybeans [3] - China: The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and their impact on import costs [3] 3.4 Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: Traders have little old - season grain left. New - season grains are starting to be supplied to the market, and the overall supply is loose [5] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains [5] 3.5 Strategy - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]

豆粕周报 关注 USDA 报告发布 连粕延续震荡 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌26.25收于1026.75美分/蒲式 耳，跌幅2.49%；豆粕01合约涨12收于3067元/吨，涨幅 0.39%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于2960元/吨，涨幅0.68%；菜 粕01合约涨37收于2550元/吨，涨幅1.47%；广西菜粕现货 涨30收于2590元/吨，涨幅1.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 9 月 8 日 ⚫ 美豆震荡收跌，主要是中美贸易谈判乐观情绪降温，大豆 采购协议未达成， ...

Group 1 - As of September 5, 2025, the main contract for soybean oil futures closed at 8450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [1] - The trading volume decreased by 5702 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic edible oil inventory reached 2.7017 million tons, with a weekly increase of 109300 tons, marking a 4.22% rise week-on-week and a 19.10% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In July, the U.S. exported 28,583 tons of soybean oil, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - There are concerns regarding the demand for U.S. soybeans as Chinese buyers have not placed orders for new U.S. soybeans [3] - The upcoming release of export and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is expected to influence market trends [3]