| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 922.58 | 0.66 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11455 | 14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151373 | -5518 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 261467 | -17774 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104455 | -1274 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 93562 | 2032 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 87816 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 658851 | -6693 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 917.5 | 0.9 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11350 | -120 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.08 | 0.24 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade negotiation has made some progress, but the situation exceeding market expectations has not occurred, and market optimism has declined [2]. - The PTA supply side has slightly shrunk, polyester production has remained stable, and the polyester load has been maintained above 90%. The export of domestic polyester remains optimistic [2]. - Although there have been rumors that polyester will fight against involution, due to the lack of more information on anti - involution in the meeting, the PTA processing fee has been compressed to less than 200. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device commissioning [2]. - Despite the end of the "Golden September and Silver October", against the background of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow [2][3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Data Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4535 to 4510, a decrease of 25 [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4147 to 4106, a decrease of 41 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4570 to 4586, an increase of 16 [2]. - MEG closing price decreased from 4032 to 4018, a decrease of 14 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6430 to 6405, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 140 to 174, an increase of 34 [2]. - 11 - 12 spread decreased from 28 to 46 (the description in the text may have an error, assuming it is a decrease of 18) [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 1030 to 1005, a decrease of 25 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5714 to 5698, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5814 to 5798, a decrease of 16 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 760 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 447 to 466, an increase of 19.11 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10320 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3890 to 3915, an increase of 25 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14545 to 14540, a decrease of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1539 to 1557, an increase of 18.46 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7010 to 7020, an increase of 10 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow increased from 543 to 588, an increase of 45.11 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7420 to 7480, an increase of 60 [2]. Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production factories has remained stable, the price of traders has declined, downstream buyers have purchased as needed, and the market transaction has been tepid. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is between 6160 - 6510 (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pickup), in the North China market is between 6280 - 6630 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and in the Fujian market is between 6170 - 6400 (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - In the bottle chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5680 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures have fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the market trading atmosphere has been cold, the purchasing willingness of downstream terminals has been low, and the market center of gravity has shifted down [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, an increase of 0.01 [3]. - The polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 43.00% to 49.00%, an increase of 6.00% [3]. - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, a decrease of 0.01 [3].

Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a trend of upward fluctuation, with major indices experiencing more declines than gains. The overall large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Sectors such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals saw significant gains, while media, beauty care, and automotive sectors lagged behind. The average daily trading volume was 2.16 billion, with margin trading remaining at 2.4 trillion [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US-China trade conflict has entered a phase of easing. In October, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a gradual adaptation to external changes. The focus of macroeconomic policy may shift towards areas that are relatively "not hot," with potential for monetary policy easing, including possible rate cuts and the implementation of investment-boosting policies [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The market is expected to experience a rebound, supported by the outcomes of the 20th National Congress and progress in US-China trade negotiations. However, without significant policy catalysts, the market may enter a phase of adjustment post-meeting. The investment outlook remains positive, with expectations for a "spring rally" and opportunities for positioning in the market as economic transformation accelerates and risk-free rates decline [4][5]. Specific Investment Directions - Focus areas for investment include: 1) Technology growth sectors such as internet, TMT, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense [5] 2) New materials and cyclical products with improved market conditions, including chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel [5] 3) Financial sectors such as brokerage, banking, and insurance [5] 4) Consumer goods towards the end of the year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold prices in various domestic jewelry stores have significantly increased, with the highest rise reaching 70 CNY per gram, indicating a strong demand and market volatility in the gold sector [1][3]. Price Changes - Major jewelry brands have reported substantial increases in gold prices, with Liufu and others rising by 61 CNY per gram, reaching 1259 CNY per gram, while Shanghai China Gold saw a rise of 70 CNY per gram, pricing at 1188 CNY per gram [1][3]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices has narrowed to 71 CNY per gram [1]. Detailed Price Listings - The following are the detailed gold prices from various brands: - Lao Miao Gold: 1256 CNY per gram, up by 63 CNY - Liufu Gold: 1259 CNY per gram, up by 61 CNY - Chow Tai Fook: 1259 CNY per gram, up by 61 CNY - Zhou Liufu: 1120 CNY per gram, down by 15 CNY [1][3]. Platinum and Recovery Prices - Platinum prices have seen a slight increase, with Liufu platinum jewelry rising by 3 CNY per gram, now priced at 635 CNY per gram [4]. - The gold recovery prices have also increased slightly by 1.8 CNY per gram, with varying prices across different brands [4]. International Gold Market - Last Friday, the spot gold price fluctuated downwards, hitting a low of 3972.09 USD per ounce before recovering to close at 4001.12 USD per ounce, down by 0.58% [6]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at 4015.72 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.36% increase [6]. - The recent decline in gold prices was attributed to a strengthening US dollar and progress in US-China trade negotiations, leading some investors to take profits [6]. - The market anticipates a 69.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could further influence gold prices [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: Sino-US trade negotiations have progressed, but the market's optimistic sentiment has declined as the outcome did not exceed expectations. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports remain optimistic. However, PTA processing fees have been compressed below 200 due to lack of anti - involution information. Industry profits are affected by over - capacity from new installations. The current peak season in the downstream weaving industry may last until November, and attention should be paid to whether tariff cuts can boost domestic exports [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remains low, with limited port arrivals and expected decline in overseas imports. New installations are pressuring prices, and the spot tightness due to low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. Coal price increases have not provided strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been restored. Tariff cuts from the Sino - US trade deal may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 458.9 yuan/barrel on October 30, 2025, to 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 17.45 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0054. PTA主力期价 rose by 16 yuan/ton, while the spot price dropped by 25 yuan/ton. Spot processing fees decreased by 42 yuan/ton, and the PTA仓单数量 increased by 806 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 3, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 3 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased by 14 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton, and MEG内盘 decreased by 41 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Chain开工情况**: PTA开工率 decreased by 0.43% to 79.66%, MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 64.41%, and polyester负荷 increased slightly by 0.06% to 89.34% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices remained stable, while their cash flows increased by 35. The long - filament sales rate remained at 43% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased by 25, and the cash flow increased by 10. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 42% to 49% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price decreased by 5, and the cash flow increased by 30. The chip sales rate decreased from 46% to 45% [2]. Device Status - An East China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - After the China-US trade negotiations, third-quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction. It is expected to enter a period of oscillation to await new changes at the end of the year. In November, the market style is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. - The current bond market environment is still conducive to the evolution of the spread compression strategy. However, there are still certain risks in the pricing of short-term treasury bonds being excessively lower than the policy rate and the recent increase in institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation mindset and avoid excessive expectations for unilateral market trends. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and the MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to oscillate within a range [10]. - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Most stocks rose, with over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rising. The total market turnover was 2.35 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11]. - **Core View**: After the end of relevant events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, and is expected to oscillate. The market style in November is expected to rebalance and may return to a barbell structure. The stock index is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate weakly [11]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: The 30-year main contract rose 0.42%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5-year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.02% [13]. - **Core View**: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in short-term treasury bond pricing and institutional position congestion. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In October, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%, lower than the consensus expectations of Bloomberg and Reuters. Seasonally, it fell more significantly than usual, and the absolute value was the lowest in the same period since 2013. The PMI of large enterprises also fell to 49.9%, returning to the contraction range [20]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year-on-year change in the consumer price index was -0.3%, and the month-on-month change was +0.1%. The year-on-year change in the producer price index for industrial products was -2.3%, and the month-on-month change was flat. The CPI year-on-year remains negative, the year-on-year increase in the core CPI expands, gold jewelry and services are the main support for the CPI year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in the PPI narrows, and the month-on-month change is flat [23]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The significant rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two-year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month-on-month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance in September was not as strong [24][25]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded rapidly to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. In August, industrial enterprise revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The increase in profit growth rate may be related to the recognition of investment income [29]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state-owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy. From the perspective of revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of midstream and downstream industries declined, reflecting the impact of the "anti-involution" policy [32]. - At the end of August, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished product inventory fell by 0.1% to 2.3%, and the real inventory year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.9% to 5.4%. The de-stocking of real inventory was faster under the influence of the accelerated convergence of the PPI. The inventory turnover days remained the same as the previous period, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [35]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the production slowdown in downstream industries was obvious. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the service production index fell to 5.6%. The year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [38]. 3.2.6 Fixed Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment fell to -6.3%, and the central value of the single - month year-on-year growth rate of private investment fell to -7.1%. The year-on-year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [41]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% of social retail sales growth, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [44]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock fell to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained flat at 5.9%. The growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber fell to 6.4%. The year-on-year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term household loans turned positive, but the year-on-year growth of medium - and long - term corporate loans was still lower. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year-on-year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [47].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. Positive news from China-US negotiations and previous price over - decline led to price recovery. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. After a round of rebound, the futures main contract 01 is consolidating in the short - term between 13,500 - 13,700 [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to ICAC's September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons. According to USDA's September report, the output in the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report on the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Slightly increased purchase price of seed cotton and year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [7]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, showing a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level, while the non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the comprehensive PMI was at the critical point, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises were stable. With the easing of international situations and policy support, the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5][7]. - In the bond market, bond yields are expected to rise trendily due to the revision of economic expectations [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8pct; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1pct; the comprehensive PMI was 50.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct [3]. 3.2 Reasons for the Decline in Manufacturing PMI - Seasonal factors: The pre - holiday demand was released in advance, and the number of working days decreased. The production index and new order index declined, leading to a seasonal decline in the manufacturing PMI [5]. - International environment: Due to the unclear results of China - US trade negotiations, the new export order index of the manufacturing industry dropped to 45.9%, the second - lowest point of the year, and the production and operation activity expectation index also declined [5]. 3.3 Structural Highlights in the Data - Key industries remained resilient: The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries were above 50%, higher than the overall manufacturing level and still in the expansion range [6]. - Non - manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range: The service industry PMI increased by 0.1pct to 50.2% due to the holiday effect and promotional activities, and the business activity expectation index remained in a high - prosperity range. The construction industry's business activity expectation index increased by 3.6pct, indicating improved confidence [6]. 3.4 Bond Market Viewpoint - Due to the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendily [8]. 3.5 Related Research Report References - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trendily; the bond - stock allocation will continue to switch, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold and observe [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell call options [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - exit long positions at high levels or short - term range trading; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - oscillate; Caustic soda - oscillate weakly; Soda ash - short - term bearish on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate strongly; PTA - oscillate; Apples - oscillate strongly; Red dates - oscillate [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - rebound under pressure; Eggs - rebound under pressure; Corn - weakly oscillate; Soybean meal - rebound from lows; Oils - weakly oscillate [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will oscillate until the end - of - year changes. The bond market environment is conducive to the spread - compression strategy, but there are still risks in the short - end Treasury pricing and institutional positions. The black building materials market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and the double - coking market is oscillating. The non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends. The energy and chemical market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies, with overall weak fundamentals. The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes, showing an oscillating and slightly strong trend. The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, with different trends for different varieties [5][10][20] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Oscillate in the short - term, medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips. After the end of events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking direction catalysts [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. The bond market environment is conducive to the spread - compression strategy, but there are risks in short - end pricing and institutional positions. Keep a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: Oscillate. The coal market has a tight supply - demand pattern, with prices rising steadily and improving sentiment. Pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [6] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. After the end of macro events in late October, black prices fell. The rebar price is at a neutral - low valuation, and with the improvement in demand and inventory reduction, it is advisable to buy on dips in the RB2601 contract, focusing on the range of 3000 - 3200 [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weakening downstream demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and hold until maturity [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. The copper price reached a record high and then fell. It is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade, supply disruptions, and Fed policies. The short - term supply - demand support is limited, and it is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term range trading [10] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price of Guinea bauxite is under pressure, and the production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed. The demand is weakening, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [11] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern in the medium to long - term, with uncertainties in supply policies. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The production of refined tin has decreased, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 12 - contract range of 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies, there is support in the medium - term, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 12 - contract ranges [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The PVC has high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export support. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 4600 - 4800 [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to focus on the 2400 resistance level of the 01 contract [21][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by cost, supply, and demand, it is recommended to focus on the range of 6300 - 6700 [23] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The rubber price is affected by raw material prices and macro - sentiment, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on the 15,000 support level [25] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of urea has decreased, and the demand has increased, with inventory changes. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 1600 - 1700 [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The polyolefin market is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to focus on the 6900 support level for L2601 and 6600 for PP2601 [28][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory and rising costs. It is recommended to maintain a short position on the 01 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate strongly. Affected by global cotton supply - demand changes, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is recommended to focus on the range of 4400 - 4700 [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate strongly. The apple production quality has decreased, and the delivery cost is expected to rise, with a strong price trend [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The red date price is stable, and attention should be paid to the price changes after the new - season listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Rebound under pressure. In the short - term, the pig price oscillates, and in the medium to long - term, the supply is high and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to capacity reduction [39][40] - **Eggs**: Rebound under pressure. The egg price is supported in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and observe the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 2170 - 2200 resistance level [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Rebound from lows. Affected by soybean procurement and cost, it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels for the M2601 contract and conduct basis trading for spot enterprises [45] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. Affected by supply - demand and policies, it is recommended to focus on the support levels of the 01 - contracts and pay attention to spread trading strategies [46][51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures. For soybean meal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating", with a reference view of "oscillating strongly". For soybean oil 2601, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly". For palm 2601, the short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Core Logic**: China may resume purchasing US soybeans, shifting the pricing anchor of domestic soybean meal from Brazilian premiums to the CBOT US soybean futures. The expected increase in imported soybean supply will pressure the spot basis of soybean meal. Currently, the domestic port soybean inventory has reached 950 million tons, at a near - three - year high. With the smooth progress of South American soybean sowing and weak domestic demand, oil mills are facing continuous losses in crushing and will be more cautious in purchasing. In the short term, soybean meal futures prices will follow the rebound of US soybean futures, but the rebound space is restricted by industrial chain pressure [5][6] Palm Oil (P) - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the increase in supply from major oil - producing countries have reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed to 2027, shaking market confidence in long - term demand. High domestic palm oil port inventories have increased pressure on the domestic market, and short - term palm oil futures prices have broken below the lower edge of the oscillation range, showing obvious weakness [7]