出品｜搜狐财经 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，关注并展望2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 近日，财通基金权益研究部负责人唐家伟，做客搜狐财经直播间，深入剖析了2026年周期赛道的投资逻辑与机遇。 唐家伟直言，当前时点需高度重视周期板块，其核心驱动来自对2026年经济可能复苏向上的强烈预期。"周期股的行情启动一般分为三阶段：交易复苏预 期、交易业绩提升、行情尾声。目前，我们正处在对边际变化最敏感的第一阶段。" 对于行情所处阶段，唐家伟给出了较为明确的判断："有色金属目前大概率已进入第二阶段，而化工等行业还处在第一阶段。" 作者｜汪梦婷 编辑｜杨锦 更多访谈点击查看《基金佳问》专栏 2025年，A股总市值站上100 万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 他特别强调，尽管有色金属价格受近期宏观事件影响出现短期调整，但中长期来看，行情仍具备中长期韧性。以铜为例，"一方面，铜在关键领域难以替 代；另一方面，其在许多终端产品成本中 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for styrene futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 7842.00 yuan, with a current price of 7743.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.11% [1] Group 2 - According to Ruida Futures, the short-term EB2603 is expected to fluctuate with strong oil prices, while the domestic styrene supply is anticipated to recover from low levels as two major 90,000-ton units are expected to restart [2] - Galaxy Futures noted that some styrene units are scheduled to restart in February, indicating a return of supply, while the demand for styrene is expected to seasonally decline as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - The overall supply-demand balance for styrene in February is projected to shift from tight to loose, influenced by the seasonal decrease in demand for EPS, PS, and UPR [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年2月4日 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21569吨，环比减少2.91%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96819吨，环比增加0.24%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18691 吨，环比减少0.93%。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，空翻多。 偏多。 6、预期: 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CI ...

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主 | 9 | | 原木：小幅探涨 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.70% | | | I2605 | | 777.5 | 昨日持 ...

国泰君安期货分析师刘雨萱告诉记者，沪锡本轮下跌的主要原因，一是最近一个月价格涨至历史高位附近，随着前期入场资金相继获利了结，盘面回调压 力较大。二是近期科技巨头微软的财报不及预期，引发市场对AI泡沫的担忧，美股尤其是科技股大幅回调。上周五，美国总统特朗普提名凯文.沃什接替 鲍威尔出任美联储主席，市场预期大幅逆转，对美联储转向"鹰派"、美元走强的担忧加剧，进一步导致市场风险偏好下降，有色、贵金属板块整体下行， 获利盘出现"踩踏"式抛售。 在经历了连续两个交易日的"恐慌性抛售"后，本周二有色金属板块跌幅收窄，但是沪锡期货主力合约依然大幅下跌，盘中一度跌破360000元/吨关口，最 终收于383340元/吨，收跌6.7%。 不过，3日夜盘时段，沪锡期货主力合约大幅上涨，最终收涨6.64%。 昨夜，据德国地质学研究中心消息，格林尼治时间3日15时33分(北京时间3日23时33分)，缅甸发生6.0级地震，震源深度10公里。 去年3月，缅甸发生7.9级地震。缅甸是全球第三大锡生产国(占全球总供应量的15%~20%)，其核心产区佤邦贡献了该国90%的锡产量，更是中国锡矿进口 的"命脉"(占中国进口量的30%)。目前本次地震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The memory market is experiencing significant changes as major players Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have formed an alliance to combat hoarding practices, aiming to stabilize the market and better understand real demand [1][3][5] Market Situation - The current memory market is chaotic, characterized by a cycle of hoarding and shortages, leading to inflated prices that do not reflect actual demand [3][4] - Many electronic component suppliers are hoarding memory chips in anticipation of price increases, which has resulted in genuine manufacturers facing supply shortages and forced to pay higher prices [3][4] Alliance Actions - The alliance's primary strategy involves strict verification of customer orders to ensure accurate reporting of downstream demand, thereby eliminating unnecessary hoarding [3][5] - This initiative is seen as a rational response to the market's disarray, with the goal of returning to a balance of supply and demand rather than relying on speculation [3][4] Price Implications - In the short term, hoarders may rush to sell off their stock, potentially leading to a slight decrease in memory prices; however, long-term demand from sectors like digital devices, servers, and electric vehicles remains strong [4][5] - Prices are expected to stabilize at levels that reflect actual demand rather than being driven by hoarding practices [4][5] Future Outlook - The alliance aims to gain significant market control by accurately assessing real demand and adjusting production accordingly, which will help maintain profitability and stabilize prices [4][5] - Downstream companies are advised to avoid hoarding and instead purchase based on actual needs to mitigate the impact of market fluctuations [4][5] Monitoring Developments - The potential resistance from hoarders and the risk of downstream companies misreporting demand could influence future price trends in the memory market, necessitating close monitoring of these dynamics [5]

021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 期货涨幅较大，关注基差机会 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 观点摘要 行业 沥青月报 日期 2026 年 2 月 3 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃summary＃ 原油方面，供需面暂无太大变化，供应依旧过剩。短期市场的交易重 心主要集中在中东局势，目前来看暂无大 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年2月3日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21569吨，环比减少2.91%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96819吨，环比增加0.24%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18691 吨，环比减少0.93%。 供给端，2025年12月碳酸锂产量为99200实物吨，预测下月产量为97970实物吨，环比减少1.23%,2025年12月 碳酸锂进口量为23989实物吨，预测下月进口量为22500实物吨，环比减少6.20%。需求端，预计下月需求有所 强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所减少，低于历史同期平均水平，供需格局转 向 ...

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5][28] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices in the short term [5][28] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side shows that downstream PTA facilities have many maintenance plans in the first quarter, which may affect PX demand [6][29] - The first quarter is expected to see a loosening of the PX supply-demand structure, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remains stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand side is weak, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to fall [7][30] - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [7][30] Group 4: Polyester Market - Several polyester production facilities are undergoing maintenance, with a total capacity of 1.8% affected [8][31] - The average sales estimate for polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 20-30% as of 3:30 PM on Monday, indicating weak demand [8][31] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 11,000 tons to 783,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [15][38] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest soda ash factory inventory increasing by 16,000 tons to 156,000 tons [15][38] - The market sentiment is weak, with soda ash prices expected to remain low in the short term [15][38] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight decline, with inventory decreasing by 33,000 tons to 2,628,000 tons, while production remained stable [40][41] - The demand for glass is weak due to seasonal factors, with the latest deep processing order quantity decreasing [40][41] Group 7: Caustic Soda Market - As of February 2, 2026, caustic soda futures increased by 29 yuan/ton to 2,004 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the market [42][43] - Demand is generally weak, but some caustic soda companies are reducing production, leading to stable prices [42][43] Group 8: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 5,014 yuan/ton, with supply pressure remaining high due to elevated operating rates [44][45] - Short-term expectations for PVC are optimistic due to a significant reduction in production growth in 2026 [44][45] Group 9: Polyolefins Market - Polyolefins are experiencing wide fluctuations, with LLDPE futures up and PP futures down, indicating mixed market conditions [46] - The overall supply trend remains high, but demand is entering a seasonal downturn [46]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...