1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with yields from 1 - 7Y down by 0.5 - 2bp, and 10Y and 30Y yields down by about 2bp to 1.66% and 1.89% respectively. Treasury bond futures closed up collectively, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rising 0.01%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.66%. [2] - Domestically, policy pre - force boosts domestic demand, resulting in strong economic data. Retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value slightly exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate improved month - on - month. In April's financial data, credit was weak, possibly due to the overdraft of reserves from Q1 credit issuance. Core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff friction led to an export rebound, and fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be continuously strengthened for stable growth. [2] - Overseas, the US April PMI declined slightly, non - farm payrolls growth, PPI, and retail sales data were all below expectations, and CPI cooled unexpectedly. However, the market has not significantly adjusted the expectation of a June interest rate cut. [2] - Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement cuts' positive news led to a significant decline in market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering the significant short - end underperformance compared to the long - end recently, there may be no good short - term trading opportunities, and there is a risk of long - end catch - up decline due to short - term spread correction. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T main contract closed at 108.605, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 57,954, an increase of 8,147. [2] - TF main contract closed at 105.735, up 0.04%, with a trading volume of 42,586, an increase of 10,666. [2] - TS main contract closed at 102.258, unchanged, with a trading volume of 15,952, an increase of 169. [2] - TL main contract closed at 119.320, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 43,076, a decrease of 8,519. [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506 spread was 0.40, up 0.02; T06 - TL06 spread was - 10.72, down 0.28. [2] - T2509 - 2506 spread was 0.22, up 0.05; TF2509 - 2506 spread was 0.27, up 0.08. [2] - TF06 - T06 spread was - 2.87, down 0.11; TS06 - T06 spread was - 6.35, down 0.14. [2] - TS2509 - 2506 spread was 0.13, up 0.01; TS06 - TF06 spread was - 3.48, down 0.03. [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T main contract open interest was 82,926, a decrease of 16,686. The top 20 long positions were 180,613, a decrease of 1,278; the top 20 short positions were 180,122, a decrease of 642; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] - TF main contract open interest was 66,890, a decrease of 12,462. The top 20 long positions were 133,033, a decrease of 1,890; the top 20 short positions were 146,502, a decrease of 2,268; the net short position was 13,469, a decrease of 378. [2] - TS main contract open interest was 37,646, a decrease of 6,630. The top 20 long positions were 89,490, a decrease of 1,659; the top 20 short positions were 108,959, a decrease of 2,221; the net short position was 19,469, a decrease of 562. [2] - TL main contract open interest was 47,914, a decrease of 2,273. The top 20 long positions were 95,272, an increase of 2,512; the top 20 short positions were 95,170, an increase of 2,183; the net short position was 0, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220003.IB (6y) was 107.0295, up 0.0553; 240025.IB (6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0942. [2] - 240014.IB (4y) was 101.4363, up 0.0166; 220021.IB (4y) was 104.4235, up 0.0108. [2] - 250006.IB (1.7y) was 100.2214, up 0.0134; 220007.IB (1.9y) was 101.903, up 0.0236. [2] - 200012.IB (18y) was 136.4822, up 0.3013; 210005.IB (18y) was 135.4265, up 0.2939. [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y yield was 1.4450%, up 1.00bp; 3y yield was 1.5050%, up 1.50bp. [2] - 5y yield was 1.5450%, up 0.75bp; 7y yield was 1.6300%, up 0.75bp. [2] - 10y yield was 1.6790%, up 0.90bp. [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5256%, up 4.56bp; Shibor overnight was 1.5370%, down 11.70bp. [2] - 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6100%, up 1.00bp; Shibor 7 - day was 1.5620%, up 1.70bp. [2] - 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.6700%, up 3.37bp; Shibor 14 - day was 1.6540%, up 5.30bp. [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR was 3.10%, unchanged; 5y LPR was 3.6%, unchanged. [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Reverse repurchase issuance scale was 135 billion yuan, with a maturity scale of 43 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.5% for 7 days. Another issuance scale was 92 billion yuan. [2] 3.9 Industry News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, and CSRC Chairman Wu Qing attended the Capital Financial Work Symposium. Pan Gongsheng said the central bank will support Beijing in building a high - ground for science and technology finance development and promoting Beijing's RMB internationalization to remain at the forefront nationwide. [2] - US President Trump said he will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the "next two to three weeks", stating that the US government is unable to negotiate with all trading partners simultaneously. Treasury Secretary Bezant and Commerce Secretary Ratnik will send letters to inform countries of the costs for accessing the US market. [2] - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, citing increased government debt. By 2035, the US federal debt burden will rise to 134% of GDP, and the federal government deficit is expected to reach 9% of GDP. GDP growth may slow as the economy adjusts to tariffs. [2]

"目前的关税摩擦以及后果，乃至于市场上的一些波动性，对国家主权财经基金来说都是局部、短期的问题。" 随着美国挥舞关税大棒，人们更加关注未来全球化的走向，"去全球"的担忧愈演愈烈。 近日，在2025清华五道口全球金融论坛上，国家主权财富基金国际论坛CEO邓肯·邦菲尔德表示，虽然当下国家之间面临很多关税的争端，但不能忽视全球 化过程中资本市场的力量，比如，以国家主权财富基金为代表的耐心资本的力量。 | which it a do the harts destrate that the had the had and any have and should of the destrated and which the late to do the land to the last hall de de la hall de la hall de la hall de hall and the hall and | THERROBORCESSEERS | | | --- | --- | --- | | and to the land to the commend 444444444444444 | | | | Adv ...

Group 1 - The recent significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields were primarily triggered by unexpected tariff policies announced by President Trump, leading to a sharp decline and subsequent rise in yields over three distinct phases from March 28 to April 24 [1][20][15] - The first phase saw a decline in yields due to concerns over a potential global economic recession, with 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields dropping by 29 basis points (bps) and 37 bps respectively [20] - The second phase experienced a rapid increase in yields, with 2Y yields rising by 28 bps and 10Y and 30Y yields increasing by 47 bps and 44 bps respectively, marking the largest weekly increases since the tech bubble burst in 2001 and the economic crisis in 1982 [20][15] Group 2 - The recent auction of new U.S. Treasuries faced weak demand, with the 3-year Treasury auction showing the highest tailing spread since the pandemic and the lowest bid-to-cover ratio in nearly three years, raising concerns about demand and liquidity [2][26] - Hedge funds faced significant pressure to close basis trades, leading to substantial selling pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, as the volatility in Treasury futures prices forced traders to liquidate positions [3][29] - Confidence in U.S. dollar assets as a safe haven was undermined, resulting in a simultaneous decline in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while non-U.S. assets like Japanese and European bonds, as well as gold, benefited from this shift [4][33] Group 3 - Historical analysis shows that since 2007, there have been six significant fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the first two linked to crises that drove investors to seek safety in Treasuries, resulting in substantial declines in yields [5][40] - The most recent fluctuations in 2020 and 2023 exhibited a similar pattern of initial declines followed by increases, influenced by liquidity crises and strong economic data [5][40] Group 4 - Short-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields indicates narrow fluctuations with high market vulnerability due to multiple factors, including uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations and the potential for further volatility in financial markets [6][46] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests a return to a downward trend in yields, contingent on easing tariff uncertainties and a potential resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although concerns over debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions may elevate yield volatility [10][11]

Macro - The rebound in social financing growth is primarily driven by government bonds, with April's new social financing reaching 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 trillion yuan, raising the stock growth rate to 8.7%, the highest since March 2024 [1] - New loans in April amounted to 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate note financing being the main support for credit in April, contributing 834.1 billion yuan [1] - The financial data for April reflects continued policy efforts to stabilize growth, including accelerated issuance and utilization of government bonds, while internal demand, particularly from households, still requires further support [1][2] Retail - Substantial progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US committing to cancel 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and China reciprocating similarly [4] - The negotiations took place on May 10-11, with a joint statement released on May 12, indicating a temporary suspension of 24% of tariffs for 90 days while retaining 10% [4] Machinery - The Chinese gas turbine industry is expected to benefit from two main developments: improvements in domestic manufacturers' gas turbine technology and increased demand from data center construction, leading to a positive outlook for the global gas turbine market [7] - The domestic gas turbine market is seeing breakthroughs in self-developed technology, which is expected to enhance the localization rate of both complete machines and core components [7] - The global demand for gas turbines is anticipated to rise significantly due to new requirements from data centers, providing opportunities for domestic manufacturers with core component technology [7]

Group 1 - JPMorgan's strategists, led by Jay Barry, have raised their forecast for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the end of 2025 to 4.35%, up from a previous estimate of 4% [1] - The forecast for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield at the end of the year has also been increased to 3.5%, previously estimated at 3% [1] - The easing of trade tensions initiated by President Trump is expected to benefit U.S. economic growth, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1]

研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 国债期货日报 2025/5/14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.535 | -0.12% T主力成交量 | 68753 | -347↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.810 | -0.13% TF主力成交量 | 55124 | 3400↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.292 | -0.05% TS主力成交量 | 35705 | 13912↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 118.930 | -0.23% TL主力成交量 | 78310 | -603↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2509-2506价差 | 0.34 | -0.11↓ T06-TL06价差 | -10.40 | 0.19↑ | | | T2509-2506价差 | 0.16 0.27 | -0.02↓ TF06-T06价差 | -2.72 -6.24 | 0.04↑ ...

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a strong start after the "May Day" holiday, with major indices mostly rising, including a 1.92% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index to 3342 points, and a 3.62% rise in the North Star 50 Index [1] - The market saw a jump at the beginning of the week due to easing news related to tariffs and a series of monetary easing policies released by the central bank [1][2] - On Friday, A-shares declined again, with trading volume shrinking, despite better-than-expected April import and export data [2] Economic Indicators - China's April export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year in USD terms, surpassing the expected 0.5% but lower than March's 12.4% [2] - April imports decreased by 0.2%, which was better than the expected decline of 6.0% and less severe than March's 4.3% drop [2] Sector Performance - Aerospace and military stocks emerged as star sectors during the week, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in South Asia [2] - The market's reaction to the central bank's easing policies was initially positive, but investor sentiment remained cautious due to a lack of anticipated fiscal stimulus [1] Future Outlook - The upcoming discussions between Chinese and U.S. officials regarding tariffs are expected to be a key factor influencing market trends [2] - Even if the talks do not yield significant progress, there is an expectation that arrangements for future discussions will be made, which may sustain market optimism [3]

5 月 7 日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共 10 项金融支持政策，货 币宽松明显发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降 准等仍有空间。 投资要点： 风险提示：经济、政策的不确定性仍存 登记编号 S0880525040060 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.07 2025-05-09 货币宽松"再发力" [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) ——5 月 7 日央行一揽子货币政策点评 本报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市 场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体 和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下， 央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息 降准等仍有空 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 8 日 A 股 2024 年年报及 2025 年 一季报分析 科技制造仍是关注重点 全 A 非金融景气修复有亮点，但过程仍较为坎坷。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 ◼ 2024 年年报业绩未能改善，2025 年一季报业绩明显改善，两期营收改善 偏慢。全部 A 股/非金融 2024 年报累计归母净利润（下或简称业绩/净利 润）同比增速分别为-2.3%/ -12.9%，较 2024Q3（-0.5%/ -7.2%）下降-1.8/- 5.7Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 2025Q1 累计业绩同比增速分别为 3.6%/4.2%， 较 2024 年年报（-2.3%/-12.9%）大幅提升 5.8/17.1Pct。全部 A 股/非金融 20 ...

·概 要 · 5月7日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共10项金融支持政策，货币宽松明显 发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前 瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类10项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发 力，对实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期 预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增 加全年财政额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加 码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已 经过去。不过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从4月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需 还要进一步巩固的背景下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是4月出口可能还有前期 抢出口的支撑，但5、6月份数据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需 要更多政策支持，三 ...