Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

商务部、海关总署公布钢材出口管理新规，钢材出口预期转弱，但在 中央财办对中央经济工作会议的解读中，对扩大内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进行了深入分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 入需求转弱，螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基本面难 言亮点，预计盘面表现承压。冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿下方支撑较 强，下游补库使得煤焦估值有望得到修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯 上方空间。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-17 现实预期博弈，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但在 中央财办对中央经济⼯作会议的解读中，对扩⼤内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进⾏了深⼊分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅⽀撑较 强，下游补库使得煤焦估值有望得到修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯 上⽅空间。 ⿊⾊建材团队 1. 铁元素方面：年底钢厂检修增多，铁矿刚需支撑逐渐弱化，港口 库存累积，钢厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡 ...

| | | | | | | | Extern Expirition Production Comments of Children Comments of Children Comment | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/16 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 供需偏弱，双焦持续走弱 双焦周报 20251215 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 第 一 部 分 市 场 观 点 焦煤基本面 弘业期货研究院 HOLLY FUTURES INSIGHTS 数据来源：Wind、Mysteel、弘业期货研究院 • （1）供给：523家样本矿山开工率85.31%（-0.28%），523家样本矿山精煤日均产量75万吨（-0.37），314家洗煤 厂产能利用率38.21%（+1.68%），精煤日均产量27.92万吨（+0.8），矿山开工率和矿山精煤日均产量环比继续回 落，洗煤厂产能利用率和精煤产量小幅回升。进口煤方面，上周甘其毛都口岸蒙煤通关量小幅回落维持高位，整 体供应恢复缓慢。 • （2）需求：247家钢厂铁水日产量229.2万吨（-3.1），高炉开工率78.63%（-1.53%），钢厂炼焦煤可用天数 12.82天（-0.06），230家独立焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数13.2天（+0.52），钢厂高炉开工率和铁水日均产量持续下 滑，钢厂炼焦煤可用天数微降，焦化厂炼焦煤可用天数回升，需求持续走弱，下游采购意愿低 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 焦炭日报：短期偏震荡运行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 【行情分析】 焦炭产量：截止 12 月 12 日独立焦企全样本：产能利用率为 73.16%，减 0.68%；焦炭 日均产量 63.98 万吨，减 0.55 万吨；另外全国 247 家钢厂样本：焦炭日均产量 46.61 减 0.01，产能利用率 85.95% 减 0.02 %。 焦炭库存，钢厂焦炭库存累增 10 万吨至 635.28 万吨，同时独立焦企焦炭库存也增加 10.88 万吨至 87.32 万吨，创近 5 个月高位，港口库存 181.2 万吨，同比增幅达 27%，焦 炭综合库存 903.8 万吨、增加 20.8 万吨。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况，平均吨焦盈利 44 元/吨；山西准一 级焦平均盈利 61 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 100 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利 5 元/ 吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 89 元/吨。 下游需求方面，随着季节性淡季逐步深入，钢材市场供需双减，247 家钢厂盈利率减 少 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/12/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

【钢材】供需两弱,偏弱震荡 周四钢联周度数据延续供需两弱,铁水产量本周跌至228+,炉料短期依旧承压。日内期现价格下跌,有关于钢材出口的未 经证实的小作文,看后续会否实锤,但在当前敏感的市场环境里,只要没有被辟谣,可能都会带来一波情绪波动的交易 最近板材的去库压力也偏大,总体还是要关注板材的压力释放。当前铁水产量快速下降触发阶段性负反馈,成本支撑弱 12月先测试铁水产量压力,再看冬储补库节点启动。重要会议先后召开,增量亮点不多,新驱动不清晰。 | | | | | | | | | - FAR ANTERN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/12 | | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F ...

中央经济工作会议及美联储会议并无超预期信号释放，宏观扰动暂告 一段落。淡季深入需求转弱，螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力 仍存，基本面难言亮点，钢材盘面延续弱势。冬储补库预期支撑下铁 矿下方仍有支撑，仓单压力以及蒙煤进口增加预期继续压制煤焦价 格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续大幅下滑，环保检修和年度检修均有，钢 厂盈利率环比走弱，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环比略增， 澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增加，本期 到港环比减量明显。港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环比不增反 降，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供增需稳，库存累积，但电炉利润 尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需求仍有支撑。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑弱化，二轮提降落地预期较强，但当 前焦钢企业已逐渐开启原料冬储补库，基本面支撑仍在，当前盘面估 值过低，继续大幅下行驱动不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。焦煤基本 面边际有所改善，但资金偏空之下市场短期仍保持悲观，后续随着交 割尘埃落定及中下游冬储补库逐步开启，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修 复，届时盘面估值有望向上修复。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 宏观扰动频繁，盘⾯表现分化 地产利好政策出台预期持续升温，市场情绪转好，钢材及铁矿盘⾯受 此影响反弹较为明显，关注接下来的中央经济⼯作会议以及海外降息 节奏。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢材产量难以⼤幅下降， 基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯反弹空间有限。冬储补库 预期⽀撑下铁⽔下⽅⽀撑偏强，仓单压⼒以及进⼝增加预期继续压制 煤焦价格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 地产利好政策出台预期持续升温，市场情绪转好，钢材及铁矿盘面受 此影响反弹较为明显，关注接下来的中央经济工作会议以及海外降息 节奏。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢材产量难以大幅下降， 基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面反弹空间有限。冬储补库 预期支撑下铁水下方支撑偏强，仓单压力以及进口增加预期继续压制 煤焦价格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 ...