1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a short-term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Hot Roll: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, same as above [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear long - position trend, and the market is fermenting [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★☆, same as above [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of steel products is gradually easing, but the overall domestic demand is weak. The market is in a short - term range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] - Iron ore has a large supply pressure, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of winter - storage replenishment by steel mills, the short - term price is supported, and the future trend is expected to be volatile [3] - Coke and coking coal have abundant carbon - element supply, and although the downstream demand has some resilience, the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress prices. After the price corrects the premium/discount, it still faces fundamental pressure, and there is intensified capital game on the market due to the expectation of stimulus policies [4][6] - For silicon manganese, affected by the rebound of the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the supply and demand are relatively fragile. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices [7] - For silicon iron, the market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and it is recommended to try long positions at low prices [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - The thread market is in a weak and volatile state in the off - season. The apparent demand has declined, the production has increased slightly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The hot - roll demand has recovered, the production has increased slightly, and the de - stocking has accelerated, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the profit of steel mills has improved marginally [2] - The real - estate investment decline has continued to expand, the investment growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing has continued to decline, the domestic demand is still weak overall, the steel export remains at a high level, and the December PMI has rebounded to 50.1, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased month - on - month, reaching a new high this year. The domestic arrival volume has decreased month - on - month but is expected to increase in the future. The port inventory has continued to accumulate at a high level at the beginning of the week [3] - The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, the iron - water production last week was basically stable, and it is expected to be at the bottom of the stage, with little possibility of further significant reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The fourth round of price reduction has been fully implemented, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The inventory has increased slightly, and the downstream purchases on demand in small quantities, while the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] Coking Coal - The price has oscillated during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. Some mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year due to factors such as safety production and completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price has increased slightly, and the terminal inventory has slightly increased [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has oscillated during the day. Driven by the market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. The port inventory of manganese ore has a structural problem, and the balance is relatively fragile. The smelting end may change the manganese - ore formula, and the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore may increase [7] - The iron - water production has declined seasonally, the weekly production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Silicon Iron - The price has oscillated downward during the day. The market expects an increase in coal supply, which may lead to a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production has rebounded to a high - level range, the export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, the overall demand is still resilient, the supply has decreased significantly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by the warm commodity market but constrained by the weak reality. They are supported by costs but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of export expectations, and are expected to maintain a volatile trend [3] - The iron ore market has a neutral fundamental situation. High supply and rigid demand are in balance, and prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [22] - For coal and coke, the import pressure in January may ease. The price of coking coal may rebound if the resumption of domestic mines falls short of expectations. The supply - demand structure of coke may improve if the iron - making production of downstream steel mills increases rapidly [33] - Ferroalloy prices may be suppressed by corporate hedging when they rebound to a certain level, but the downside is limited due to cost support [48] - The over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the demand expectation is weakening. High inventory restricts the price [63] - For glass, the cold - repair of production lines before the Spring Festival may affect long - term pricing, and the high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested [86] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3100 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan from the previous day), and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3221 yuan/ton (down 56 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads also showed changes [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions had slight fluctuations. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different contracts and regions also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) was 200 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, up 13 yuan from the previous day [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The volume - screw difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio were relatively stable on December 31, 2025, compared to the previous day [15][19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts showed small changes. For example, the 01 contract closed at 805 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan from the previous day). The basis of different contracts also changed [23] - **Fundamental Data**: As of December 26, 2025, the daily average pig iron production was 226.58 tons (up 0.03 tons week - on - week), the 45 - port desilting volume was 315.06 tons (up 1.61 tons week - on - week), and the 45 - port inventory was 15858.66 tons (up 346.03 tons week - on - week) [27] Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On December 31, 2025, the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. The coking profit on the disk decreased, and the ratios of ore - coke, screw - coke, and carbon - coal also changed [36] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions were relatively stable. The import profits of different types of coal and the export profit of coke showed some fluctuations [39] Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On December 31, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 22 yuan/ton (up 78 yuan from the previous day), and the month - to - month spreads also changed. The spot prices in different regions were stable or had small increases [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 80 yuan/ton (up 22 yuan from the previous day). The month - to - month spreads and spot prices in different regions also changed [50][52] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts decreased. The month - to - month spreads changed significantly. For example, the month - to - month spread (9 - 1) increased by 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 17.61% [64] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were relatively stable, with only slight changes in some regions [64] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On December 31, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts were basically unchanged. The month - to - month spreads and basis in different regions changed slightly [87] - **Sales and Production**: The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions of glass showed fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on December 26, 2025, was 105 [88]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the reports [1][3][6][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Yesterday's steel prices remained stable. Steel production continued to decrease and inventories declined. There was a large supply - demand gap for rebar, with good inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coil inventory reduction was still slow. Seasonal decline in apparent demand led to weak demand. Although production cuts and strong raw materials supported steel prices to repair upwards from low levels, the weak demand limited the upward drive. Rebar price fluctuations were expected to be in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range. It was recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1] Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the 09 iron ore contract fluctuated. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the shipping peak season, with some mines ramping up production at the end of the year. Although the arrival volume decreased slightly, it was still at a high level in the same period of history. Based on shipping calculations, the arrival volume would remain high in the next two weeks, but it would enter the off - season in the first quarter of next year, and the impact of weather on supply needed attention. On the demand side, the molten iron output remained flat week - on - week, at a historically low level. Some steel mills resumed production, while others were under maintenance. The profitability of steel mills improved, but due to the off - season and many overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production was expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, iron ore inventory was at a high level in the same period, and it would continue to accumulate due to high future arrival volumes and low off - port volume in the off - season. Although the short - term resumption of molten iron production was limited, winter storage and pre - festival restocking might support the ore price. In the future, iron ore would transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand weakness. The price was capped by high inventory, and the demand could not absorb the supply increase when priced above $110 in the off - season. There was support from the restocking expectation of steel mills with low inventory. In the short term, the focus was on the molten iron trend and the restocking rhythm of steel mills, and in the long term, on the negotiation situation. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate strongly. Short - term operations were recommended, with the reference range of 770 - 840 [3] Coke Industry - Yesterday, the coke futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on December 22, and the fourth round was launched on the 29th. The port price fell in advance and was currently stable with a weak trend. On the supply side, the coking coal prices in the Shanxi market showed mixed trends, and the auction prices of various coal types showed signs of bottom - rebounding. Coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, squeezing the coking profit and reducing the start - up rate. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, molten iron output declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level, with the intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. Coke supply - demand weakened. The coke futures fell in advance, and the spot price decline referred to the coking coal decline space. For strategies, after three rounds of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected - driven rebound was difficult to sustain. It was recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [6] Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coking coal futures rebounded in a fluctuating manner. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal turned to a mixed trend, Mongolian coal quotes fluctuated with futures, the auction failure rate rebounded again recently, and traders were cautious about restocking. The thermal coal market continued to decline. On the supply side, near the end of the year, coking coal production might continue to decline; for imported coal, the port inventory was at a high level at the end of the year, and mines carried out shipping volume ramping up. On the demand side, steel mill losses and maintenance decreased, and molten iron output remained stable, but the coking profit declined, the daily output of coking plants decreased slightly, and the market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, coke enterprises, mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased their inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly. The policy focused on ensuring the long - term coal supply for power plants. For strategies, the rebound expectation was over - priced in advance. Unilateral operations were recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon price continued to be strong, breaking through the previous pressure level, and the spot market was also strong, with discussions about capacity elimination in Shaanxi. On the supply side, this week's ferrosilicon production continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared with the previous period. The production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. In terms of non - steel demand, downstream restocking increased near the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient, and there were still impacts from the re - export trade of Russia and North Korea. On the cost side, the semi - coke price decreased slightly, and low - cost power regions had an advantage. Looking forward, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needed to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation was priced in. The improvement expectation of the demand side was insufficient, and the price lacked upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the expectation change and the semi - coke price. In the short term, the price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5900 [8] - Ferromanganese: Recently, ferromanganese was strongly running, and the spot market was stable. On the supply side, the production increased slightly, and the supply remained at a normal level in the same period of history. Recently, new capacities in Inner Mongolia were released, and the short - term production still had room for growth. There were rumors of production cuts in Guangxi and Guizhou, but they were not implemented. In terms of steel - making demand, the molten iron output was basically flat week - on - week, with some steel mills under maintenance and some resuming production. With more large - scale overhauls and weak demand, the molten iron output was expected to remain stable in the short term, and the steel - making demand would be stable. The price - pressing sentiment of steel mills in the copper - aluminum industry was strong. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory remained at a high level, and the inflection point had not appeared, and the supply - demand contradiction still existed. On the cost side, the manganese ore price was stable, and some overseas mines raised their January quotes. The low - inventory situation supported the ore price. Overall, ferromanganese was in a state of self - supply surplus but relatively balanced in the whole market. The manganese ore supported the ferromanganese price, and the key was the production cut amplitude and the end - year winter storage restocking expectation of steel mills. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was priced in, and there was no clear trend - reversal signal. It was expected that the price would fluctuate downward. The strategy was mainly range - trading, with the reference range of 5700 - 6000 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 increased by 4 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China and South China remained unchanged, while the North China price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3209 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton [1] Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 226.5 tons, with no significant change. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons. Rebar production increased by 2.7 tons to 184.4 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.6 tons to 293.5 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons to 1258.0 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons to 434.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 377.2 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 2.5 to 11.3, a decrease of 20.8%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 1.7 to 833.6 tons, rebar apparent demand decreased by 6.0 to 202.7 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 8.8 to 307.0 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed different trends. The 05 - contract basis of some iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 to 22.0, while the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 20.0 [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps remained unchanged, while the Platts 62% Fe increased by 1.0 to 107.9 [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons to 2646.7 tons, the global shipping volume decreased by 128.0 tons to 3464.5 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 74.7 tons to 11054.0 tons [3] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average off - port volume increased by 1.6 to 315.1 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.6 tons to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.6 tons to 6987.1 tons [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons to 15858.66 tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 136.2 tons to 8860.2 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 19.0 [3] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 6, and the 05 contract increased by 35. The coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) price remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [6] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 12.2 tons to 912.6 tons, the all - sample coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.1 tons to 92.2 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory increased by 8.5 tons to 642.2 tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 178.2 tons [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remained at - 0.2 tons [6] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur main - coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) price increased by 5 to 1159 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract increased by 35, and the 05 contract increased by 32. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1 [7] Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price remained unchanged at 230 US dollars/ton, the Jingtang Port Australian main - coking coal ex - warehouse price increased by 20 to 1560 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Port Australian thermal coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 1.9 to 698 yuan/ton [7] Supply - The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons [7] Demand - The all - sample coking plant daily average output decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons, and the 247 - steel - mill daily average output increased by 0.3 to 46.8 tons [7] Inventory Changes - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 134.9 tons, the all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 3.4 tons to 1039.7 tons, the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 806.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 299.5 tons [7] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon: The spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees, and the main - contract closing price increased by 74 to 5676 yuan/ton. Ferromanganese: The spot prices in different regions also increased, and the main - contract closing price increased by 80 to 5862 yuan/ton [8] Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased. Ferromanganese: The manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port remained stable, and the production costs in different regions remained unchanged [8] Manganese Ore Supply - The manganese ore shipping volume increased by 15 to 85.2 tons, the arrival volume increased by 2.5 to 40.8 tons, and the off - port volume decreased by 3.5 to 55.7 tons [8] Supply - Ferrosilicon: The production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise start - up rate decreased. Ferromanganese: The start - up rate increased, and the production increased [8] Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 226.6 tons, the five - major - steel - product output decreased by 1.1 tons to 796.8 tons, the ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand increased by 0.0 to 11.3 tons [8] Inventory Changes - Ferrosilicon: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.4 tons, and the average available days decreased by 0.4 to 15.4 days. Ferromanganese: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons to 38.6 tons, and the average available days increased by 0.1 to 16 days [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: Threaded steel, hot rolled steel, and iron ore are rated ☆☆☆; coke and coking coal are rated ★☆★; silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are rated ★★☆ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market has minor supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market will mainly fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes. The iron ore price is expected to be supported in the short term but will mainly fluctuate. The coke and coking coal prices face fundamental pressure after discount repair, and the market has expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games. For silicon manganese and ferrosilicon, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuated today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declined, while its production increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot rolled steel recovered, with production rising slightly and inventory reduction accelerating, but the pressure still needs to be alleviated. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the steel mill profits are marginally improving. The decline in blast furnace production has slowed down, and molten iron production has stabilized. The real estate investment decline continued to expand, and the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, while steel exports remain high. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market declined today. The global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month and reached a new high this year, while the domestic arrival volume decreased month - on - month with an expected increase in the future. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the news of a possible increase in stacking costs strengthened the supply release expectation. The steel mill profitability has improved recently, and the molten iron production last week was basically stable. The iron ore supply pressure is still high, but with the sign of molten iron production bottoming out and the expectation of steel mill winter storage replenishment, the short - term price is expected to be supported, and the future trend will mainly be fluctuating [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated upward today. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has fully landed, the coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. Currently, downstream customers purchase on a small - scale and demand - based basis, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price is at a premium, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated upward today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased seasonally. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and completion of annual production tasks. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production is at a seasonal low. The demand for raw materials still has some resilience, but the steel mills still have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price is at a discount, and after the discount repair, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. The market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and the capital game in the futures market has intensified [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated strongly today. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The semi - carbonate manganese ore price increased last week. The molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated strongly today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. The molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 84.21% (-2.41%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.76 tons (-1.79). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.32% (-1.36%), and the daily output of clean coal was 26.59 tons (-0.7). At the end of the year, the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, and the overall supply pressure remained [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.96 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.49 days (+0.06). Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 282.9 tons (+10.13), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1039.72 tons (+3.43), the steel mill inventory was 806.72 tons (+1.73), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 329 tons (+1.72), and the inventory of major ports was 299.5 tons (+13.33). Procurement sentiment weakened [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market declined slightly and remained at a low level, and the procurement sentiment in the off - season of demand was weak. The import pressure of Mongolian coal will decrease in the new year, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. With the increasing expectation of winter storage replenishment, the market will remain volatile [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 18 yuan/ton (-34), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 71.66% (-0.39%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 62.67 tons (-0.33), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.9 tons (+0.31). The overall supply changed little [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.01 days (+0.29). The rigid demand for coke weakened [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 92.24 tons (+1.14), the inventory of major ports was 178.2 tons (+2.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.2 tons (+8.47). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. - Summary: The supply of coke changed little. The demand structure was weak, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts for coke spot. However, with the increasing expectation of steel mill resumption in January and the support of winter storage replenishment, the futures market is expected to remain volatile at a low level [4]. Macro Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate cumulative year - on - year, weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no in - depth analysis is provided [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coking coal procurement prices, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, production, operating rate, inventory, and Mongolian coal customs clearance in relevant regions, but no in - depth analysis is provided [21][26][31] Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coke ex - factory prices, price adjustment schedules, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, profit, production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and inventory available days, but no in - depth analysis is provided [61][63][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel market: Recently, steel mill profits have recovered, and the output of rebar has slightly increased from a low level. Downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down. In the short - term, the market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force for prices. However, boosted by the warming market atmosphere and the increasing expectation of supply - tightening policies, the futures market shows a low - level and relatively strong oscillation. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 3080 - 3160 [7]. - Iron ore market: In terms of the industry, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, but they are still high year - on - year, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating strong iron ore supply. On the demand side, as the iron ore output stabilizes after the recovery of steel mill profits, it supports the demand for raw materials, and steel mill inventories increase slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply and demand, and the confidence in winter stockpiling and replenishment has slightly increased. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue to oscillate strongly. The iron ore 2605 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline. By variety, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a slight increase in steel mill inventory and a continuous decrease in social inventory; the factory and social inventories of hot - rolled coils and wire rods both decrease slightly; the factory inventory of cold - rolled products increases while the social inventory decreases; for medium - thick plates, the decrease in factory inventory is less than the increase in social inventory. As the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down [7]. - **Supply**: The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens. In addition, the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, and it is expected that demand will further decline [7]. - **Iron ore Supply**: In the latest period (20251215 - 1221), the global iron ore shipment volume and domestic arrivals have decreased month - on - month. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. Among them, the shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9]. - **Iron ore Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. Recently, steel mill profits have rebounded month - on - month, capacity utilization has increased, and molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month [9]. - **Iron ore Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days. Iron ore port inventories continue to increase, and steel mill inventories increase month - on - month [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of the RB2605 contract is 3118 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract is 3283 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton; the basis of the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton [21]. - As of December 26, 2025, the RB05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 49 yuan/ton; the HC05 - 10 contract spread closes at - 13 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai is - 13 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread is - 165 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3 Demand Side - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products continues to shrink. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumption gradually weakens, and the enthusiasm for winter stockpiling among middle and lower - stream enterprises is low, so demand is expected to further decline [7]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of the five major steel products continues to decline, but as the off - season deepens, the inventory depletion gradually slows down. By variety, the inventory changes vary [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons [9]. 3.5 Supply Side - The molten iron output of steel mills stops falling and stabilizes. The decline in coke prices allows steel mill profits to recover, and the production reduction intensity slows down. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increase slightly. Recently, the profitability rate of steel mills has rebounded, and some blast furnaces have resumed production, supporting the demand for raw materials [7]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Supply**: From December 15 to December 21, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3464.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1889.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 101.3 million tons, and the shipment volume from Brazil is 859.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2790.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 137.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China is 2646.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 76.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports is 1256.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 102.1 million tons [9][148][165]. - **Demand**: As of December 26, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output is 226.58 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 16619.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume is 328.76 million tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country is 8860.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 136.24 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills is 280.04 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.64 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.54 days [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction lies in the current situation where both Steel Union and Fenwei-caliber mines have reduced production and accumulated inventory. Downstream coke enterprises only maintain rigid demand procurement, and large-scale winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The coking coal inventory structure continues to deteriorate. The import pressure may ease in January, but the price trend depends on the resumption rhythm of domestic mines and the production increase elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. - The price ranges are predicted as follows: JM2605 for coking coal is expected to trade between 1040 - 1150, and J2605 for coke between 1650 - 1760. The trend is expected to be a volatile consolidation [10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion - **Core Contradiction**: This week, mines reduced production and accumulated inventory, downstream coke enterprises only met rigid demand, and winter storage has not begun. The coking coal inventory structure worsened. Import pressure may ease in January. The price trend depends on the resumption rhythm of domestic mines and the production increase elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. - **Market Positioning**: The price ranges are JM2605 (1040 - 1150) for coking coal and J2605 (1650 - 1760) for coke. The current volatility and historical percentile of volatility are also provided [10]. - **Basic Data Overview**: Data on coking coal and coke supply, inventory, and price differences are presented, showing a decrease in coking coal production and an increase in inventory [10][13]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events - **This Week's Important Information**: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include environmental protection policies, housing policy adjustments, and infrastructure construction plans. Negative factors are the third - round price cut of coke and the high inventory at the port due to high - volume customs clearance of Mongolian coal [21][23]. - **Next Week's Attention Events**: Attention should be paid to the US initial jobless claims, the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes, and China's official manufacturing PMI [24][25]. 3. Disk Interpretation - **Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation**: Technically, the coking coal main contract rebounded. The 05 contract for coking coal is expected to trade between 1040 - 1150, and for coke between 1650 - 1760. The 1 - 5 positive spread of coking coal strengthened, and the 1 - 5 spread of coke oscillated at a low level. The basis of coking coal is neutral, and for coke, if the disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [26][30][33]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking**: This week, the theoretical profit of coking coal mines shrank, the immediate coking profit was under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills improved [38]. - **Import and Export Profit Tracking**: At the end of the year, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased. The long - term contract trade profit first rose and then fell. The overseas demand for coking coal is strong, and the theoretical import profit has expanded [41][46]. 5. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Deduction - **Coking Coal Supply - side Deduction**: Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the coking coal supply is expected to increase. The weekly average import volume may drop to about 2.5 million tons. The theoretical iron - water balance point in January is expected to be 241 - 242 tons per day [60]. - **Coke Supply - side Deduction**: The fourth - round price cut of coke is likely to be implemented. The coke production is expected to be about 7.66 million tons per week in January, and the average weekly export is expected to be 150,000 tons. The theoretical iron - water balance point is 231 - 232 tons per day [64]. - **Demand - side Deduction**: Iron - water production is expected to stabilize in the short term, and the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. The average daily iron - water production in January is expected to be 2.3 - 2.31 million tons per day [68]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction**: Tables show the weekly balance sheets of coking coal and coke, including production, net import, total supply, theoretical iron - water equivalent, actual iron - water, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual iron - water [70].