Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today, with the decline in open interest slowing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. The industry is entering the peak season, and the decline in copper prices may increase downstream replenishment willingness. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly in the morning but fell continuously during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. After the Fed's interest rate cut, previous long - positions were continuously liquidated. Downstream replenishment willingness is weak, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been accumulating this week. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced significant technical pressure after hitting a high in March and then falling back [6]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose in the morning, with the main contract price approaching the 122,000 level, and fluctuated during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. Domestically, nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory are continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices rebounded with a reduction in positions, indicating strong short - covering willingness. As macro disturbances decline, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the construction mobilization meeting of the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was held. The project, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan, will be fully operational in 2029, and will directly boost copper cable demand. This week, copper cable downstream industries' demand was weak due to high copper prices. State Grid orders remained flat, automotive wiring harness orders were stable, and construction and two - grid orders are expected to be released in October. High copper prices have also weakened enterprises' procurement willingness, leading to a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in sample enterprises' finished - product inventory ratio. The enameled wire industry showed a slight increase in the operating rate but faced pressure on new orders, with new orders decreasing by 1.07 percentage points month - on - month [9][10]. - **Nickel**: On September 19, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,750 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No clear rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No clear rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating provided [1] - Zinc: No clear rating provided [3] - Lead and Stainless Steel: No clear rating provided [1] - Tin: No clear rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating provided [9] - Polysilicon: No clear rating provided [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market sentiment has changed. Different metals have different price trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1][3] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various metals are different, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][5] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw a reduction in positions in Shanghai copper, approaching the support of medium - and long - term moving averages. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled. The spot copper price was 80,600 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium shrank to 60 yuan. The social inventory decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons this week. The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, and the spot discounts in various regions slightly narrowed. The downstream开工 continued to seasonally recover, but the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing slightly by 100 tons compared to Monday. The industry drive is currently weak, and Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high. Cast aluminum alloy followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price dropping by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy increases enterprise costs, so it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continued to be adjusted down by 5 - 10 yuan. There is an expectation of mine复产 in Guinea, and the strike has not affected production for the time being. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [2] Zinc - After the Fed's expected 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again. The de - stocking pace of LME zinc slowed down, and the total inventory was still less than 50,000 tons. The weak domestic and strong overseas fundamentals led to an extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets. After the zinc ingot export window was approaching to open, the price difference began to converge. The increase in global mine supply continued to be realized, and the overall supply of zinc ingots was sufficient. The general direction of short - selling on rallies remained unchanged. Given the differentiation of domestic and foreign fundamentals, it is necessary to focus on the change in LME zinc inventory. If there is obvious warehousing action in the overseas market, Shanghai zinc is expected to break below the 22,000 - yuan level; if the LME zinc inventory remains at a low level, Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around 22,000 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Due to the low operating rate of secondary lead smelters and the maintenance of primary lead smelters in the early stage, and the maintenance plan of medium - and large - scale smelters in late September, coupled with the downstream's stockpiling for the National Day holiday, the supply of lead ingots tightened. The SMM social inventory of lead decreased to 67,600 tons. The fundamentals of lead improved in the short term. Shanghai lead continued its independent trend during the day, with bulls increasing positions, and there is still some upside potential for Shanghai lead. However, after the lead price rebounded, the SMM 1 lead had a discount of 145 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, the profit of secondary lead was restored, the price difference between refined and scrap lead widened to 100 yuan/ton, the expectation of secondary lead smelters resuming production strengthened, and the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. The resistance for the lead price rebound is seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - After the interest rate cut, in the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed in the negative territory near the MA60 moving average, and the spot tin price was adjusted down to 270,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of the overseas market at $34,000. The spot discount of LME 0 - 3 months has widened to $167. Wait for the specific import and export data of tin. If Shanghai tin effectively breaks below the 60 - day moving average, it means weak consumption. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated weakly, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, the downstream took the opportunity to purchase. The inventory of traders decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector became cautious, and the transfer of cargo rights was mainly due to the upstream selling to the downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore was $810, and the ore - end quotation rebounded slightly, matching the lithium - price fluctuations. The low - level support of the lithium - carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut, the overall trend was weak [8] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been an expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. From the weekly operating situation, the production reduction of downstream silicone and polysilicon was limited. The monthly surplus risk mainly came from the increase in the operating rate in the Xinjiang production area and the maintenance of the existing operating level in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas. In general, the room for fundamental improvement was limited, and it was difficult to form a strong upward - driving force. More positive factors were needed to effectively break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The energy - consumption limit standard has entered the solicitation stage. The price of spot M - type re - feeding material increased slightly, with the current quotation range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule of the polysilicon industry in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The resistance above the futures price has not been broken through, and it is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the intersection of bullish and bearish factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations and tend to be weak in the short term as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry shows positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV rush installations (future growth may slow), automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market remains weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,690 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 9,797 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 78.38 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 156,350 tons with no daily change [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly according to the China Iron and Steel Association. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market remains weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 2,806 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 2.95 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 69,375 tons with a daily decrease of 1,875 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,785 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 10 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.07 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 479,525 tons with no daily change [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 120,070 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,500 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 15,100 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 175.83 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 209,598 tons with a daily increase of 252 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 160 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 1,995 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 279,600 tons with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 269,570 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,090 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 33,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 50.00 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 1,740 tons with a daily increase of 25 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term. However, the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [9][10]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - Copper: The futures price of CU2509 on August 22, 2025, was 78,690 yuan, down 370 yuan (- 0.47%) from August 15. The spot price was 78,825 yuan, down 345 yuan (- 0.44%) [7]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 was 20,630 yuan, down 140 yuan (- 0.67%). The spot price was 20,750 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.34%) [7]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 was 22,275 yuan, down 230 yuan (- 1.02%). The spot price was 21,930 yuan, down 734 yuan (- 3.24%) [7]. - Tin: The futures price of SN2509 was 265,930 yuan, down 890 yuan (- 0.33%). The spot price remained unchanged at 266,250 yuan [7]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 was 119,610 yuan, down 990 yuan (- 0.82%). The spot price was 120,890 yuan, down 930 yuan (- 0.76%) [7]. 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 - **Aluminum**: - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a range. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and China's policy to boost domestic demand created a positive atmosphere, which is expected to boost aluminum consumption. Supply slightly increased with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. Some sub - sectors showed improvement, while the recycled aluminum operating rate declined slightly. As of August 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [9]. - Viewpoint: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term, but the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside [9][10]. - Later Attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11]. - **Zinc**: - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillated around 8.0, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.12 percentage points to 57.42%. Zinc ingot inventory increased due to some enterprises' stock - replenishment behavior. As of August 25, domestic zinc inventory increased [12]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Later Attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [12]. - **Tin**: - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow due to the rainy season, and African imports also declined. Supply shortage supported tin prices. The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low due to raw material shortages. Downstream demand was average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [13]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. - Later Attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [13]. 3.3 03品种数据 - **Aluminum** - **Bauxite**: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - grade was 570 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The average import price was 74.74 dollars/ton, up 0.03 dollars week - on - week [17]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 416.77 tons, down 92.85 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 400.53 tons, down 13.42 tons [21]. - **Alumina**: - Price and Cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan week - on - week. The full cost was 2891.7 yuan/ton, up 6.9 yuan. The profit in Shanxi was 269.57 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - Cost and Price Difference: The total cost was 16718.55 yuan/ton, down 19.49 yuan week - on - week. The regional price difference (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [26]. - Downstream Processing: The operating rates of aluminum cable, foil, plate - strip, and others showed different changes. For example, the aluminum cable operating rate was 63.6, up 1 percentage point week - on - week [31]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 81,900 tons, down 2900 tons week - on - week. The social inventory was 616,000 tons, up 9000 tons [37]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum showed different changes in different periods. For example, the basis of the current month was 60 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan week - on - week [43]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week [50]. - **Zinc** - **Zinc Concentrate**: - Price and Processing Fee: The domestic zinc concentrate price was 16,804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The domestic processing fee remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton [55]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The import loss was 876.68 yuan/ton, up 487.84 yuan week - on - week [58]. - **Refined Zinc**: - Inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, up 3100 tons week - on - week [61]. - **Galvanizing**: - Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory: The production was 332,890 tons, down 14,155 tons week - on - week. The operating rate was 57.42%, down 1.12 percentage points [64]. - **Zinc Basis and Month - to - Month Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot and the month - to - month spread of Shanghai zinc showed different changes [67][68]. - **Tin** - **Refined Tin**: - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi was 0.289 tons, up 0.002 tons week - on - week. The combined operating rate was 59.64%, up 0.41 percentage points [74]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7491 tons, down 301 tons week - on - week. The Chinese regional social inventory was 9278 tons, down 802 tons [77]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee and Import Profit - loss**: The tin concentrate processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The import profit - loss was 10,126.07 yuan/ton, down 3805.14 yuan week - on - week [79][80]. - **Spot Average Price**: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week [84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Red, indicating a bullish trend) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Zinc: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic events, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different metals show different trends such as upward, downward, or oscillatory movements, and corresponding investment strategies are provided based on these trends [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper rose above 79,500 yuan due to the probability of Fed rate cut in September, domestic refined copper consumption substitution effect, and the expiration of 2509 options. The spot copper price reached 79,395 yuan, with Shanghai premium at 140 yuan and Guangdong premium at 60 yuan. SMM copper inventory decreased by 8,700 tons to 123,000 tons over the weekend. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1,550 yuan. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 80,000 yuan and the opportunity to sell call options [2] Aluminum - SHFE aluminum oscillated strongly. The spot premium in East China was 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 20,000 tons and aluminum rod inventory increased by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear. SHFE aluminum will oscillate in the short - term, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area. Cast aluminum alloy follows SHFE aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the spot - SHFE aluminum cross - variety price difference may further narrow [3] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts rising. Supply surplus is emerging, and spot indices are falling. The price in Henan was 3,200 yuan today. Alumina is in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to Powell's dovish remarks, the expectation of a US rate cut in September increased. The fundamental situation is supply increase and demand weakness. The price rebounded, but downstream acceptance of high - price zinc ingots is low. The spot is at a discount to the futures, and holders tend to deliver to the warehouse. SMM zinc social inventory rose to 138,500 tons. The market is dominated by short - covering, and long - entry is cautious. In the medium - term, SHFE zinc is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton are preferred [4] Lead - The expectation of primary and secondary lead production cuts is strengthening, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 68,300 tons, supporting the price rebound. Although the consumption peak season is not prosperous, downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. In September, the new national standard for electric two - wheelers and the anti - dumping tariff on Chinese starting lead - acid batteries in the Middle East will be implemented, and SHFE lead is expected to oscillate [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with dull trading. Traders are reluctant to lower prices, and the premium of mainstream electrowon nickel remained in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week. Downstream purchases increased due to the price decline. Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons. Technically, nickel price has the intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling positions are sought [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased positions slightly and shifted the main contract to 2510. The short - term resistance for the overseas market is at $34,000, and the corresponding weighted price of SHFE tin is 270,000 yuan. The overseas tin market is supported by low inventory and weak Indonesian supply, while the domestic market has low supply and demand. Tin price may rise in the short - term, and long - positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and trading volume shrank. Some miners sold during the price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply. After the price drop, there was temporary reluctance to sell. Downstream companies adjusted their psychological price levels and were cautious in restocking. In July, lithium ore imports increased significantly, providing sufficient raw materials for domestic lithium - spodumene smelters. The total market inventory decreased slightly by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 3,000 tons to 47,000 tons and downstream inventory increasing by nearly 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The mid - stream output decreased by 5% week - on - week. In the price decline, the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of small - scale enterprises, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A bullish approach with risk control is recommended [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures oscillated. After the expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy stabilized, there were more news about industrial silicon capacity elimination, but the impact on overall supply is limited. Fundamentally, both supply and demand increased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The weekly social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to trade in the range of 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. After the industry meeting, the price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction situation is unclear. The current spot price corresponds to the lower end of the oscillation range, and the upside space depends on the implementation progress of capacity - related policies. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals dated August 20, 2025, covering copper, aluminum, and nickel [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in open interest. The main contract price fluctuated above 78,500 yuan. Macroscopically, the continuous rebound of the overseas US dollar index is negative for copper prices. In the short term, the weakening domestic commodity atmosphere combined with the US dollar rebound may continue to put pressure on copper prices [5] - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a relatively strong volatile trend with a continuous decline in open interest. Macroscopically, the domestic commodity atmosphere cooled. At the industrial level, the downstream is entering the peak season, and the inventory of aluminum rods has started to gradually decline. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 20,500 yuan mark [6] - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel showed a relatively weak volatile trend with a slight increase in open interest. The main contract price fell below the 120,000 yuan mark during the session and then stabilized and rebounded. Macroscopically, the long atmosphere in the domestic market cooled. At the industrial level, high inventories continue to put pressure on nickel prices. The resonance of macro and industrial negatives leads to the weak operation of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [7] Industry Dynamics Copper - First Quantum Minerals has officially launched a $1.25 billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, the largest copper investment project in the country in nearly a decade [9] Aluminum - According to customs data, in July 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [9] Nickel - Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 122,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [10] Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, and copper monthly spread [11][13][14] Aluminum - The report provides charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] Nickel - The report provides charts on nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic spot import window opened. The market is cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" and Powell's speech. Domestically, measures are proposed to stabilize the real - estate market. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, Comex inventory increased by 792 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained stable, and BC copper decreased by 5571 tons. With the end of the seasonal off - season approaching, downstream orders are expected to pick up. Copper prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation, with a balance between bulls and bears waiting for external factors to break the current shock [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep decline is restricted. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an irregular inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum is in a "time - for - space" rhythm, and inventory trends and early peak - season start signals need to be tracked [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.73% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 1086 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium was stable. Nickel ore premiums in Indonesia slightly declined. Stainless - steel raw material prices were divided, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.48% week - on - week. The overall fundamentals of nickel remained stable, showing a fluctuating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 4 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the spot premium was stable. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total inventory increased by 7039 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel over Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1086 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons, and the total nickel inventory increased by 768 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE - LME ratio increased. The SMM spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton. The 60% and 40% tin concentrate prices decreased by 3500 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 13 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **3.2.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.2.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **3.2.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.2.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **3.2.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **3.2.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1][5] - Alumina: なな女 [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1][9] - Polysilicon: な女女 [1][10] Core Views - The copper market is still cautiously evaluating economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. It is inclined that the resistance to trading above the copper market is significant, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [1]. - The Shanghai aluminum market fluctuates narrowly. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. It is mainly in short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the zinc ore output of major overseas mining enterprises increased by more than 12% year - on - year. The demand off - season is obvious. The zinc market is dominated by the fundamentals of increasing supply and weak demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the repeated macro - sentiment [3]. - The consumption peak season of aluminum is not prosperous, but the cost side has strong support for the price. It is advisable to hold long positions at 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the opportunity of the last trading days of call options [5]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless - steel is still poor. The Shanghai nickel is in the middle and late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively intervened [6]. - The Shanghai tin rose in the afternoon session and regained the MA40 moving average. The low overseas inventory and spot premium support the London tin [7]. - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the market trading is active. The short - term long - position thinking should be adopted, and risk control should be done well [8]. - The industrial silicon futures fluctuate downward. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon futures closed down in shock. There is an opportunity to go long near 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Technically, pay attention to the support toughness of the MA60 moving average. The domestic spot copper is 79,100 yuan, and the Shanghai premium slightly shrinks to 195 yuan [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates narrowly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons compared with Thursday, and the aluminum rods decreased by 6,000 tons. The downstream start - up is stable [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are both rising. Supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot index in various places is falling [2]. Zinc - In 2025H1, the zinc ore output of major overseas mining enterprises increased by more than 12% year - on - year. The demand off - season is obvious. The zinc market is dominated by the fundamentals of increasing supply and weak demand [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - This week, the stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless - steel is still poor. The supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and rose in the afternoon session, regaining the MA40 moving average. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July were 3,792 tons, a 15% month - on - month decrease [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the market trading is active. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures fluctuate downward. During the wet season, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed down in shock. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, while the polysilicon production schedule has increased significantly, and the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot quotation [10].