铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 有色金属日报 2025-7-2 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收跌 0.56%至 17108 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 8.36 万手。截至周二下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 7 至 2041 美元/吨，总持仓 15.09 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16925 元/吨，再生精铅 均价 16875 元/吨，精废价差 50 元/吨，废电动车电池均价 1 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | | 收至 130 元/吨。佛山 A00 报价回落至 20490 元/吨，对无锡 A00 贴水 140 元/吨，铝棒 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 加工费包头河南临沂持稳，新疆南昌无锡广东下调 20-50 元/吨，铝杆 1A60 系、6/8 | 系 | | | 加工费持稳，低碳铝杆上调 93 元/吨。氧化铝远月矿石扰动和新增投产压力并存，区间 | | | | 震荡为主。电解铝需求边际走弱与低铸锭量和低仓单挤仓效应间存在博弈，宏观风险 | | | | 计价加码，警惕波动风险。废铝成本支撑仍在，铝合金持续关注滚动做多 AD-AL 价差 | | | | 机会。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.5%报 15150 美元/吨，沪镍涨 0.75%报 120680 元/吨。库存方面，昨日 | | | | LME 库存减少 144 吨至 204216 吨，国内 SHFE 仓单减少 96 至 21263 吨。升贴水来 | | | | 看，LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 250 元/吨。据铁合金，大厂 6 | 月 | | | 高镍铁第三轮招标价为 ...

Group 1 - Non-ferrous metal futures have risen, with aluminum oxide futures main contract increasing by over 2% [1] - Shanghai tin main contract rose by 1.63% [1] - International copper main contract increased by 1.47% [1] - Shanghai copper main contract rose by 1.32% [1] - Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 1.28% [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.35%至 9694.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.15%至 | | | 78450 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势，且亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，美国 6 月 Markit | | | 综合 PMI 初值 52.8，高于预期 52.1，低于前值 53，创两个月新低，数据显示经济仍 | | | 在扩张之势，减缓了市场的担忧，但制造业和服务业都面临显著的价格上涨，通胀压 | | | 力逐渐显现。欧元区综合 PMI 从 5 月份的 52.2 降至 50.8，触及五个月低点，疲软的 | | | 欧元区经济与美经济韧性形成对比，或有利于美元的企稳。库存方面，LME 库存下降 | | | 3325 吨至 95875 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 1132 吨至 182524 吨；SMM 周一统计全国主 | | | 流地区铜库存环比上周五下降 1.63 万吨至 12.96 万吨，相比上周四库存的变化，全国 | | 铜 | 各地区的库存均是下降的。伊以 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a weak oscillation, rising in the afternoon and then falling back. Despite the tense Middle - East situation, it didn't significantly impact domestic risk appetite. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from last week. After the price decline last week, the industry's replenishment willingness increased, and the 7 - 8 month spread strengthened. Overseas, the premium of LME copper has been strengthening, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper. If the Middle - East situation doesn't escalate, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: In the morning, aluminum prices rose and then fell back, continuing to rise during the day. The weakening of the 7 - 8 month spread last week indicates a weakening industrial support. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. The recent price fluctuations with increasing positions may suggest an increase in the hedging willingness of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Technically, the main futures price broke below the 5 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, and the main futures price once fell below 117,000. Short - term macro conditions have turned cold, and nickel's fundamentals are weak. Upstream, nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remain strong; downstream, stainless steel is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support at the low point in early April [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons from June 19 and 10,500 tons from June 16. Recently, 188 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo passed customs at Ningbo Customs and entered production at Jin Tian Copper Industry. Jin Tian Copper Industry's output value in 2024 exceeded 120 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase. From January to May this year, Ningbo's copper imports from Africa were worth 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8% [9]. - **Aluminum**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week and 12,000 tons from June 19 [6][10]. - **Nickel**: On June 23, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel +2,600 - +2,900 yuan/ton, Russian nickel +500 - +700 yuan/ton, nickel beans - 1,000 - - 800 yuan/ton, Bofeng nickel - 50 - +50 yuan/ton, Sumitomo nickel +2,400 - +2,500 yuan/ton, and Norwegian nickel +2,700 - +2,800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, month spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report contains charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, month spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, month spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward trend in the short - term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,480 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption [6]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk, but the start time of the market is uncertain [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [9]. - Nickel prices may fall, and it is advisable to short at high prices, with the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices may face selling pressure and need to be vigilant against weakening risks, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange main contract running in the range of 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. - The subsequent trend of the stainless - steel market depends on whether the downstream demand can start substantial restocking [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose slightly by 0.13% to 9,660 dollars/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,380 yuan/ton [2]. - Three major exchanges' inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, with SHFE inventory down 1,000 tons to 100,000 tons, LME inventory down 15,000 tons to 99,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 7,000 tons to 183,000 tons [2]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and copper spot imports had a large loss [2]. - LME cash/3M premium widened to 275 dollars/ton, and domestic basis quotes rose after the contract change [2]. - The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 920 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and demand improved slightly [2]. Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum rose 2.34% to 2,561 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract rose 0.12% [4]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, with social inventory at 449,000 tons (down 11,000 tons week - on - week) and bonded area inventory at 114,000 tons (down 5,000 tons week - on - week) [4]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 343,000 tons, and Cash/3M turned to a premium [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and aluminum plant inventory declined slightly [4]. - The operating rate of aluminum products fluctuated and declined, with some products' operating rates falling and others remaining stable [4]. Lead - 3S fell 10 dollars to 1,982 dollars/ton, and the total position was 153,500 lots [6]. - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton [6]. - Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 287,400 tons [6]. - The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined significantly, and downstream consumption remained weak [6]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of about 70%, while the profit of secondary lead remained low [6]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.06% to 21,678 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 259,300 lots [7]. - LME zinc 3S rose 8 dollars to 2,625 dollars/ton, and the total position was 206,400 lots [7]. - SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,030 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied [7]. - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 8,700 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons [7]. - LME zinc ingot inventory was 127,500 tons, and the cancelled warrant was 33,500 tons [7]. - The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, but the increase in social inventory is not obvious [7]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and domestic tin ore imports in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons [8]. - The raw material inventory of smelters in main production areas was generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance or production cuts [8]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, and orders for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic declined [8]. - After tin prices rose to around 260,000 yuan/ton, downstream procurement willingness weakened [9]. - As of June 20, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets decreased by 42 tons to 8,905 tons [9]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The monthly output of refined nickel remained high [10]. - Spot demand was weak, and market trading was light [10]. - The visible inventory of domestic + LME increased by 6,165 tons to 241,000 tons [10]. - The supply of nickel ore was tight in the short - term due to the rainy season, but it was expected to ease after the rainy season [10]. - The price of nickel iron was weak in June, and some production lines switched to producing nickel matte [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,777 yuan, down 0.31% from the previous trading day and 1.09% for the week [12]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.17% [12]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 58,900 yuan, down 1.93% from the previous day and 1.51% for the week [12]. - The supply clearance was slow, and domestic lithium salt production returned to a high level [12]. - Downstream entered the traditional mid - year off - season, and the marginal increase in demand declined [12]. Alumina - On June 20, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.31% to 2,883 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading decreased by 12,000 lots to 435,000 lots [14]. - Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the Shandong spot price was at a premium to the 07 contract [15]. - The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import window was closed [15]. - The futures warehouse receipt decreased by 6,300 tons to 42,900 tons [15]. - The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [15]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,505 yuan/ton, down 0.56% for the day, and the unilateral position increased by 5,358 lots to 279,900 lots [17]. - Spot prices in some markets decreased, and the futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 114,089 tons [17]. - Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, with 300 - series inventory at 692,100 tons (up 0.89% month - on - month) [17]. - The inventory of Qing Shan resources was high, suppressing steel prices, and downstream users were in a wait - and - see state [17]. - The industry faced cost pressure, and steel mills, agents, and traders were in a loss - making state [17].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.32%至 9619.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.27%至 | | | | 78280 元/吨；国内现货进口仍维系较大亏损。宏观方面，美联储在 6 月议息会议上维 | | | | 持利率不变后，特朗普再度喊话美联储要求其降息。关税谈判方面，欧盟正寻求与美 | | | | 国达成英国式贸易协议。中东局势仍是短期焦点，美方有意介入伊以冲突，特朗普已 | | | | 批准攻击计划但暂缓执行，各方也在呼吁伊以停止冲突，局势已在逐步升温。库存方 | | | 铜 | 面，LME 库存下降 4025 吨至 103325 吨；Comex 库存增加 1400 吨至 18.14 万吨； | | | | SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上 | | | | 升 0.11 万吨。需求方面，淡季来临下，下游消费转弱。伊以冲突升温后铜价表现不 | | | | 佳，佐证投资者相比供给，更 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Each metal has its own unique price trend and influencing factors. The short - term price trends of different metals are diverse, with some expected to be range - bound, some to rise and then fall, and some to continue to weaken [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: The price of copper rebounded. LME copper closed up 0.49% at $9,695 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78,650 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME inventory decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. In China, social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 47,000 tons. The supply of spot goods was tight, and the holders still had the sentiment of holding up prices. The import loss of domestic copper spot decreased, and the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly improved [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The support for copper prices is still strong due to low inventory, but the weakening demand will limit the upward space. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 77,800 - 79,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,600 - 9,760 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The price of aluminum declined first and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed up 0.56% at $2,517 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20,385 yuan per ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The decline in domestic inventory narrowed. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 351,200 tons. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 10 yuan per ton to the futures, and the discount narrowed. The downstream mainly purchased on demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise and then fall in the short term, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is expected to continue. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,470 - 2,540 per ton [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.22% at 16,977 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $0.5 to $1,992 per ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises had weak consumption, and the pick - up situation was poor. The operating rate of primary lead smelting reached a historical high of around 70%, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead remained at a high level of 29,000 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The price of lead is expected to continue to weaken [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.18% at 21,639 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $22.5 to $2,632.5 per ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore remained in an oversupply situation, and the profit of zinc smelters increased again. Although the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again, the overall domestic visible inventory stabilized, and there was still a large downward risk in the future [6]. - **Outlook**: There is a large downward risk in the future [6]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply of tin ore was in short supply, and some smelting enterprises carried out maintenance or stepped - up production cuts. Terminal demand entered the off - season, and the downstream purchasing willingness was significantly weakened after the tin price rose to around 260,000 yuan per ton [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price is expected to be in the range of $31,000 - 33,000 per ton [8]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. - **Supply and Demand**: The shortage of nickel ore is expected to gradually ease, and the price of nickel ore will be under pressure. The price of nickel iron was dragged down by the weak demand for stainless steel. The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen, and the price of nickel sulfate may be under pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged [10]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price may further decline after the spot demand weakens. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound and sell at high prices. The reference range for the main SHFE nickel contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500 per ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 60,187 yuan, down 0.41% from the previous trading day. The LC2509 contract closed at 59,780 yuan, down 0.03% from the previous closing price [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially. Domestic supply shows strong resilience, and production in June increased month - on - month. The downstream entered the relative off - season [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory and oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 59,000 - 60,800 yuan per ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.04% to 2,846 yuan per ton [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The import window opened. The futures inventory remained unchanged. The pattern of over - capacity in alumina remains difficult to change [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan per ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 12,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market supply - demand contradiction is sharp, with high inventory and weak demand. The expectation of the US to impose tariffs on steel - made household appliances has increased, which has a negative impact on downstream exports [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and there is a possibility of further price decline [17].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺，国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象，但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看，原料价格持稳，供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产，但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨，周环比上升 2.07%，需求疲软压制，供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面，品种价格表现平稳，6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面，6 月供应环比延续下降，国内周度库存去化。综合来看，原料成本坚 挺为托底，一级镍去库，但向上受到下游需求制约，整体仍篇震荡运行，关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨，对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...

| | 20250611申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...