1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 24, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR quotes remained unchanged, and the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation. The money market was slightly tight, the bond market trading was light after the Spring Festival, the convertible bond market followed the equity market's rise, and the yields of most US Treasury bonds and European government bonds changed [1][4]. - The real estate market is showing positive changes, with the decline in housing prices in large and medium - sized cities narrowing, and the market is moving towards stabilization and recovery [4]. - Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on February 24, and the implementation schedule of the 15% tariff has not been finalized, which has brought uncertainty to the global trade [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The LPR has remained unchanged for nine months, and there is still room for a decline this year. On February 24, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, in line with market expectations [3]. - On February 25, the central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan. In February, the net injection of medium - term liquidity reached 90 billion yuan, still at a relatively high level [4]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with the decline in housing prices in large and medium - sized cities narrowing in January 2026 [4]. 3.1.2 International News - Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on February 24, and the implementation schedule of the 15% tariff has not been finalized. The new policy has exemptions, and the unclear signal has caused confusion in the global market [5]. - A Federal Reserve official said that the current inflation is "not good enough", and the tariff ruling helps to cool inflation. The US 12 - month core PCE price index rose 3% year - on - year [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On February 24, international crude oil futures prices fell, with WTI March crude oil futures down 1.03% and Brent April crude oil futures down 1.01%. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.05% [7]. 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On February 24, the central bank conducted a 526 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan due to large - scale reverse repurchase maturities [10]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On February 24, due to the tax period and large - scale net withdrawal of reverse repurchases, the money market was slightly tight. DR001 fell 0.25bp to 1.367%, and DR007 rose 1.57bp to 1.555% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On February 24, bond market trading was light after the Spring Festival. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.7825%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 0.05bp to 1.9435% [14]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of various bonds such as agricultural development bonds and Treasury bonds was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On February 24, there were no credit bonds with a price deviation of more than 10% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Country Garden and Hejingtai reached debt restructuring agreements or announced bond buy - back plans [17]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity Market Performance**: On February 24, the A - share market had a good start in the Year of the Horse, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.87%, 1.36%, and 0.99% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 2.22 trillion yuan [18]. - **Convertible Bond Market Performance**: The convertible bond market followed the equity market and strengthened. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.82%, 0.92%, and 0.67% respectively. Most convertible bond issues rose [18]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On February 24, the yield of the 2 - year US Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.43%, and the yields of other maturities generally rose. The 2/10 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 1bp to 61bp, and the 5/30 - year spread narrowed by 2bp to 89bp [24][25]. - **European Bond Market**: On February 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally declined, with the German 10 - year government bond yield falling 1bp to 2.71% [27]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of the close on February 24 were provided, including bonds of companies such as Bilibili and Country Garden [29].

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the market is under significant pressure due to a large amount of reverse repos and MLF maturing, but the central bank's operations are expected to maintain overall liquidity stability [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Central Bank Operations - From February 24 to 28, over 22,000 billion yuan in reverse repos are set to mature, including 8,524 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 14,000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos, along with 3,000 billion yuan in MLF [1][2]. - The central bank has conducted significant reverse repo operations, including 5,260 billion yuan on February 24 and 4,095 billion yuan on February 25, to manage short-term liquidity [3]. - The central bank's increase in medium-term liquidity supply, including a 6,000 billion yuan MLF operation on February 25, aims to counteract the maturing amount and ensure a net injection of liquidity [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has experienced fluctuations in funding rates, with the overnight Shibor rising by 4.64 basis points to 1.362% on February 24, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 22.97 basis points to 1.553% [2]. - Analysts believe that despite the short-term pressures, the overall liquidity environment will remain stable, supported by the central bank's interventions [4][5]. - The expected return of cash to the financial system post-holiday is anticipated to inject liquidity, leading to a decrease in funding rates, particularly for 7-day rates [5].

Core Viewpoint - The overall liquidity in the market remains controllable despite the short-term disturbances caused by tax periods, month-end pressures, and large maturities, supported by continuous monetary policy measures [2][5]. Group 1: Market Liquidity and Central Bank Operations - The upcoming liquidity test in the market is significant, with over 22 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing from February 24 to 28, including 8.524 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 14 trillion yuan in 14-day reverse repos [2][3]. - The central bank has actively engaged in reverse repo and MLF operations to manage liquidity, conducting 5.26 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos on February 24 and 4.095 trillion yuan on February 25, resulting in a net withdrawal of 9.264 trillion yuan on the first day [4][5]. - The central bank's actions are aimed at smoothing short-term liquidity gaps and ensuring a stable funding environment, with a net injection of 3 trillion yuan through MLF operations on February 25 [4][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Interest Rates - Following the significant liquidity withdrawal, the funding rates experienced fluctuations, with the overnight Shibor rising by 4.64 basis points to 1.362% on February 24, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 22.97 basis points to 1.553% [3][4]. - On February 25, the funding environment showed slight easing, with the overnight Shibor rising marginally by 1.6 basis points to 1.378%, and the 7-day Shibor declining by 5.6 basis points to 1.497% [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Seasonal Trends - Analysts believe that the liquidity pressure post-holiday is manageable, with expectations of a more relaxed funding environment as government bond supply pressures decrease and fiscal spending potentially accelerates [5][6]. - February is not a major tax month, which is expected to lessen the impact of tax payments on liquidity compared to January, with estimated tax payments around 1 trillion yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing fluctuations with a general downward trend, as government bond futures and interbank cash bonds show weakness, while the market awaits policy direction from an upcoming important meeting [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.47% to 112.7, the 10-year down 0.13% to 108.48, the 5-year down 0.10% to 106.065, and the 2-year down 0.06% to 102.458 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债22" increased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, while the 30-year bond "25超长特别国债06" saw a yield rise of 1.25 basis points to 2.2330% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.73 basis points to 3.461% and the 10-year yield falling by 0.38 basis points to 4.031% [3]. - In Asia, Japan's long-term bond yields increased significantly, with the 30-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.325% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased slightly [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance's recent bond auctions saw lower yields than market estimates, with the weighted average yield for the 91-day and 5-year bonds at 1.2110% and 1.4877%, respectively [4]. - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds also showed competitive yields, with the 10-year yield at 1.9490% [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total of 4095 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 95 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 1.6 basis points to 1.378% [5]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the liquidity in the market is expected to remain stable but slightly tighter as the month-end approaches, with significant government bond issuance planned [7]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income suggests that while the bond market may continue to see single-sided trends, the overall support from stable liquidity and slow economic recovery will influence market dynamics [7].

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new five-year plan, creating numerous trading opportunities related to policy implementation [1] - Despite an increase in resident incremental funds, significant reductions in major ETF investments have offset this inflow, leading to a challenging liquidity environment before the Spring Festival [1] - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with a potential rebound in indices post-holiday, focusing on sectors like oil, food and beverage, AI, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The "Shengong-Hua Tuo" brain-controlled acupuncture and neuro-rehabilitation platform has been launched, targeting patients with neurological injuries, indicating advancements in brain-machine interface technology [3] - Quantum technology has reached a strategic height in policy, with significant funding growth, totaling approximately 34.9 billion yuan by Q3 2025, surpassing previous years [3] - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $5 billion to over $800 billion between 2024 and 2035, with a CAGR exceeding 55% [5] Group 3 - The short-term market trend is strong, but the influx of incremental funds remains limited, indicating a cautious approach from investors [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been rising, primarily driven by the energy sector, while the demand for funds remains stable despite an increase in net reductions by major shareholders [9] - February's investment strategy should focus on cyclical and technology sectors, with an emphasis on electronics, media, machinery, and power equipment [9]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a strong start after the Spring Festival, with government bond futures closing higher across the board, and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 0.5 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained a stable attitude towards liquidity management, indicating that interbank market liquidity will remain at a reasonable and ample level rather than becoming excessively loose [1][7] Bond Market Performance - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.20% to close at 112.96, while the 10-year futures increased by 0.02% to 108.5 [2] - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.9405%, and the yield on the 30-year government bond fell by 0.5 basis points to 2.2195% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping by 4.98 basis points to 4.031% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also declined, with the 10-year yield down by 3.3 basis points to 2.076% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 2.4 basis points to 3.274% [3] Funding Conditions - The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 526 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 926.4 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 4.64 basis points to 1.362% [5] Institutional Insights - Recent trends in the Chinese dollar bond market show a stable overall performance, with a recommendation to prioritize coupon strategies while remaining cautious about lower-rated bonds [7] - The recent U.S. tariff policy changes have introduced uncertainty, but the impact on Chinese exports is expected to be relatively limited [7] - The PBOC's actions indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity stability, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to fluctuate between 1.77% and 1.85% in the short term [7]

央行今日公告，将于25日开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。此举意味着2月MLF续作加量3000 亿，为连续第12月加量，但从规模上看本月加量规模小于1月的7000亿元。 节后首周恰逢税期与月末重叠，加之全周公开市场操作合计到期规模高达2.7万亿元，再叠加北交所有 新股发行，预计将对资金面产生扰动。多位专家对智通财经记者表示，从央行对流动性的呵护来看，2 月中期流动性净投放总额达到9000亿，仍处于较高水平。"2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达， 今年财政继续前置发力。 从市场利率来看，今日早盘隔夜SHIBOR报1.3620%，上涨4.64个基点。7天SHIBOR报1.5530%，上涨 22.97个基点。3个月SHIBOR报1.5780%，下降0.20个基点。 节后首周资金面迎大考 央行加量续作MLF 春节首周有较大规模逆回购到期，流动性面临压力。根据公开市场数据，本周将有超过2.2万亿元的逆 回购到期，叠加3000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)到期，资金回笼压力巨大。 今日，央行公告表示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年2月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利 率招标、多重价位中标方式开展600 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite the pressure on liquidity post-Spring Festival, the bond market outlook remains optimistic, with strategies focusing on "buying on dips" and maintaining a bullish stance [1][4][6] - The upcoming liquidity "stress test" is highlighted, with over 27 trillion yuan in public market maturities creating potential volatility in the funding environment [2][3] - Analysts expect the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to continue its supportive stance, which historically leads to a marginal easing of liquidity conditions after the Spring Festival [3][4] Group 2 - The bond market is anticipated to experience adjustments, but these may present good opportunities for positioning in the first half of the year, particularly with increased institutional allocations expected around the Two Sessions [4][5] - Specific recommendations include focusing on short to medium-term bonds, such as 5-year policy bank bonds and 30-year government bonds, while also considering the compression of yield spreads between local and national bonds [5][6] - The overall sentiment suggests that while there are risks, the bond market is likely to remain stable due to PBOC's actions and ongoing institutional demand, making short-term fluctuations potentially advantageous for investors [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On February 12, 2026, the Treasury bond futures contracts of different tenors on the China Financial Futures Exchange showed divergent trends. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, and multiple factors need to be monitored [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On February 12, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose slightly, the 2 - year contract fell, and the 5 - year contract was basically flat. The overall market trading was active, and the capital side remained loose [2][3]. - The 10 - year main contract opened at 108.565 yuan, closed at 108.585 yuan, up 0.025 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 72,102 lots, and the open interest was 184,151 lots, a decrease of 17,988 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - year main contract opened at 106.085 yuan and closed at 106.065 yuan, basically flat (+0.005 yuan). The trading volume was 63,267 lots, and the open interest was 74,846 lots, a decrease of 12,640 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 2 - year main contract opened at 102.456 yuan and closed at 102.458 yuan, down 0.02 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,644 lots, and the open interest was 34,819 lots, a decrease of 8,746 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Domestic Market Factors - Liquidity was loose. The central bank conducted 166.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40% unchanged. The net investment on the day was 448 billion yuan, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined [3][4]. - On February 12, 2026, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.356%, 1.5366%, 1.7894%, and 2.246% respectively. The yield curve steepened, and the long - end yield was relatively stable, supporting long - term Treasury bond futures [4]. 3.2.2 International Market Factors - US economic data showed that the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 people in January, much higher than the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. The market adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and the first cut may be postponed to June or July [4]. - Global monetary policies were divergent. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, and the RBA governor said it would raise interest rates again if inflation persisted. This increased the uncertainty of international capital flows and indirectly affected the domestic bond market [4]. 3.3 Short - term Market Outlook - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market may maintain a volatile pattern. Factors to be concerned about include monetary policy trends, changes in the capital side, the impact of US monetary policy, and economic fundamental data [5][6]. - Technically, the 10 - year main contract oscillated in the range of 108.5 - 108.7 yuan, and it was necessary to watch whether it could break through the upper limit. The 5 - year and 2 - year contracts were expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading may gradually shift to new main contracts [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].