Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3,310 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,195 billion yuan due to 4,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Market Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products increased significantly, with the overnight Shibor rising by 26.80 basis points to 1.6350%, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor rose by 8.20 basis points and 8.80 basis points, respectively, to 1.5450% and 1.6150% [1][2]. - In the interbank pledged repo market, rates for various products also increased, with the overnight and 7-day rates rising to 1.6515% and 1.5759%, respectively, while the transaction volumes for these products decreased [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - On July 24, the funding environment showed a trend of tightening followed by easing, with overnight funding rates initially high at 1.80%-1.85% before dropping to around 1.50% by the end of the day [9]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit saw 25 issues with a total issuance amount of 387.4 billion yuan by the end of the day [10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The PBOC announced plans to conduct a 4,000 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on July 25, with a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan due to 3,000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [12]. - A joint opinion from the PBOC and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized enhancing financial services for rural revitalization, focusing on food security and financial support for agricultural development [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing and seizing investment opportunities while avoiding risks, highlighting the current market dynamics in the bond and stock sectors. Group 1: Market Overview - The funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, with long-term bond yields showing a significant upward trend [1] - The central bank conducted a 2,148 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 2,477 billion yuan today [1] - The funding rates continue to decline, with DR001 around 1.31% and DR007 around 1.47% [1] Group 2: Bond Market Performance - The sentiment in the bond market remained stable in the morning, with the 10-year government bond yield opening at 1.677% and showing strong fluctuations [3] - The bond market experienced a sell-off, with bond funds continuing to redeem, pushing the yield up to 1.692% [3] - The 10-year government bond yield reached a correction high of around 1.7%, the highest since April 7, indicating a need to observe support levels [3] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market and commodities performed strongly, with news of the National Energy Administration ordering the suspension of overproducing coal mines, leading to a surge in prices for coking coal and polysilicon [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded five consecutive days of gains, reaching a new high for the year [3] - The article critiques the reliance on fiscal measures, suggesting that shutting down a few mines can significantly impact inflation and market performance [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 214.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 127.7 billion yuan due to 342.5 billion yuan maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term maturities declined across the board, with overnight Shibor down by 4.90 basis points to 1.3170%, and 7-day Shibor down by 1.50 basis points to 1.4620% [1][2] - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates decreased while transaction volumes increased, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates down by 4.7 basis points and 4.1 basis points, respectively, while transaction amounts rose significantly [4] Group 2 - The money market showed a generally loose liquidity condition, with overnight rates for pledged repo transactions fluctuating between 1.35% and 1.45% during the day, indicating a balanced supply and demand [9] - On July 22, 73 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, totaling 82.85 billion yuan, with mixed trading sentiment observed in the secondary market, where yields showed slight fluctuations [10] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q2 2025, the balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 268.56 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [12]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "固收周报 - 债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 —— 债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周）" [1] - Report Type: Fixed Income Weekly Report [10][16][28] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [3] Group 2: Core Views - Current bond market situation: Sellers are bullish, while buyers expect a sideways trend. Recent anti - involution and consumption policies, along with the strength of the infrastructure sector, have led to a weak performance in the bond market. After the major tax period, the capital market is generally stable, with a slight increase in interest rates [3]. - Outlook for the future: The probability of unexpected incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July is low. The market still expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading. There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff situation in August. It is expected that the fundamental situation in the second half of the year will not be negative for the bond market. At the micro - level, as large banks increase their net purchases of certificates of deposit and short - term treasury bonds, the steepening of the yield curve may continue. The bond market has been sideways for three months, and the use of various investment strategies by investors is quite saturated, with high market congestion, so the probability of continued sideways movement is high [3]. - Market sentiment: Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are still bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared to last week. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral to bullish, and the sentiment index has remained unchanged for two weeks [3][4]. Group 3: Seller and Buyer Market 3.1 Seller Market - Sentiment index: The weighted sentiment index is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.54, down 0.1 from last week. 15 institutions are bullish, 10 are neutral, and 1 are bearish [11]. - Bullish institutions (58%): Key factors include lack of support on the commodity demand side, reduced sensitivity of the bond market to equities, and stable capital operation after the tax period [11]. - Neutral institutions (38%): Key factors include the neutral impact of the unfreezing of pledged bonds on the bond market, resilient economic data, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds in the future [11]. - Bearish institutions (4%): Key factors include that the unfreezing of pledged bonds does not mean the central bank will restart bond purchases, and the stock - bond ratio leads to an increase in bond market interest rates [11]. 3.2 Buyer Market - Sentiment index: The sentiment index is 0.13, remaining unchanged from last week. 5 institutions are bullish, and 13 are neutral [12]. - Bullish institutions (28%): Key factors include the resonance of slowing nominal GDP growth and monetary easing, average economic data, a friendly central bank attitude, and increased fiscal fund investment [12]. - Neutral institutions (72%): Key factors include that the impact of the tax period on the capital market has not completely ended, the stock - bond跷跷板 effect still exists, good production, investment, and export data, possible improvement in Sino - US relations, uncertainties in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, and the need for substantial news to break the deadlock [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Segments 4.1 Credit Bonds - Market trends: Financial management funds are entering the market, and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is expanding. The spread is expected to compress slightly due to the entry of financial management funds and the support from the central bank for science and technology innovation bonds [19][20]. 4.2 Convertible Bonds - Market view: Institutions are generally bullish this week. All 8 institutions hold a bullish attitude, supported by short - term supply - demand issues, the allocation demand of fixed - income + institutions, the urgency of conversion near maturity, and clause games [22]. Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 5.1 Futures Trading - Price: As of July 18, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.43 yuan, 105.99 yuan, 108.79 yuan, and 120.46 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.15 yuan from last Friday [24]. - Open interest: The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 1753, 4914, 5152, and 3403 hands respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume: From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 170.93 billion yuan, 117.46 billion yuan, 106.42 billion yuan, and 128.95 billion yuan respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume to open interest ratio: The trading volume to open interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 0.07, 0.07, 0.04, and 0.09 respectively compared to last Friday [25]. 5.2 Spot Bond Trading - Turnover rate: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds all decreased. On July 18, the turnover rates were 2.86%, 0.82%, and 5.14% respectively, down 3.17pct, 0.15pct, and 0.44pct from last week [32][43]. 5.3 Basis Trading - Basis: The basis of TS and T main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 0.003 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.003 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan from last Friday [41]. - Net basis: The net basis of TF and TL main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were - 0.01 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.05 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.002 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and - 0.08 yuan from last Friday [42][45]. - IRR: The IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends. As of July 18, the IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.56%, 1.65%, 1.37%, and 1.71% respectively, with changes of - 0.02%, +0.06%, - 0.39%, and +0.36% from last Friday [45]. 5.4 Spread Trading - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spread of T contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.07 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and 0.18 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.03 yuan, +0.05 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and +0 yuan from last Friday [52]. - Inter - product spread: Except for the 3*T - TL contract, the inter - product spreads of other main contracts widened. As of July 18, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.86 yuan, 103.20 yuan, 300.93 yuan, and 205.90 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, +0.09 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan from last Friday [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - From July 14 - 18, 2025, the central bank conducted net 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing and 140 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. The funding situation tightened during the tax period. After the tax - period disturbance ends, the funding situation is expected to return to a stable state. [2][5][6] - From July 14 - 20, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased. [2][6][7][8] - From July 21 - 27, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 28.49 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 107.65 billion yuan, with an increased pressure on maturity renewal compared to the previous week. [2][6][7] Summary by Directory Funding Situation - **Central Bank's Liquidity Injection**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase injected 172.68 billion yuan and withdrew 42.57 billion yuan. 10 billion yuan of MLF matured, and on July 15, an outright reverse repurchase operation of 140 billion yuan was carried out. From July 21 - 25, with over 2 trillion yuan of funds maturing, it may bring some pressure to the funding situation, but the central bank is expected to continue to support the funding situation. [5] - **Slight Convergence of Funding Situation**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 14.6 and 13.4 basis points respectively compared to July 7 - 11. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 5.8 and 3.2 basis points respectively. After the tax - period disturbance, the funding situation is expected to return to a stable state. [6] - **Increase in Net Payment Scale of Government Bonds**: From July 14 - 20, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 42.88 billion yuan, an increase of about 17.77 billion yuan compared to July 7 - 13. From July 21 - 27, 2025, the expected net payment scale of government bonds is 28.49 billion yuan. [6] Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Most Maturity Yields Declined**: As of July 18, 2025, the 1 - month NCD maturity yield was basically the same as on July 11, while the 3 - month and 1 - year NCD maturity yields decreased by 2 and 1 basis points respectively compared to July 11. [7] - **Positive Net Financing Scale**: From July 14 - 20, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 14.44 billion yuan, turning positive from - 8.41 billion yuan in July 7 - 13. From July 21 - 27, 2025, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 107.65 billion yuan, with increased pressure on maturity renewal. [7] Institutional Behavior - **Decrease in Leverage Ratio of Inter - bank Bond Market**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.58%, lower than the 108.18% in July 7 - 11. [8]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 187.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% on July 18, with a total bid and awarded amount of 187.5 billion yuan [1] - On the same day, 84.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan [1] - From July 21 to 25, a total of 1.7268 trillion yuan in reverse repos will mature, along with 200 billion yuan in MLF maturing on July 25 and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing on July 22 [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The overall funding conditions are slightly easing, with overnight pledged repo rates down slightly to 1.45% and 7-day pledged repo rates down by less than 2 basis points to 1.50% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is 4.34% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds are mixed, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22%, the 10-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 5-year main contract down 0.05% [11] - The 2-year main contract remained flat [11] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The central bank is soliciting opinions on the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures (Draft for Comments)," which includes 26 articles focusing on brokerage institution types, risk isolation, and client qualification management [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission and six other departments issued measures to encourage foreign investment enterprises to reinvest domestically, optimizing management processes [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries will be released soon [12] Group 6: Global Macro - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that economic data should dictate the pace of interest rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence [15] Group 7: Bond Events - Anhui Province plans to issue 92.752 billion yuan in local bonds in August, all of which are special bonds [17] - Jilin Province plans to issue 10.36555 billion yuan in local government bonds in August [17]

Market Overview - The bond market remains unclear, with long-term interest rates showing a V-shaped trend, indicating a state of stagnation where rates neither rise nor fall significantly[1] - From July 14-18, the 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.66% (-0.2bp), while the 30-year bond yield fell to 1.87% (-0.3bp)[9] Funding Conditions - During the major tax payment week, interbank overnight and 7-day funding rates reached temporary highs of 1.57% and 1.58%, raising concerns about the sustainability of a loose monetary environment[2] - The net payment of government bonds during this period was 428.8 billion yuan, contributing to a significant funding gap[20] Market Sentiment - Recent increases in market risk appetite are reflected in the rising financing balance in the stock market, with new funds continuously entering[3] - The expectation of policy support has strengthened, particularly with recent favorable signals from U.S. officials regarding tariffs on China[3] Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, institutions are advised to maintain a cautious approach, avoiding aggressive duration increases while closely following market trends[4] - The bond market may develop in two directions: a potential steepening of the yield curve driven by short-term rate declines and a focus on coupon income as funding rates decrease[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]

Group 1: Market Overview - During the tax period from July 14-18, liquidity tightened significantly, with overnight rates jumping approximately 10 basis points on the first day of the tax period, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% for R001 and DR001 respectively[1] - The central bank increased reverse repo operations, with daily net injections exceeding 300 billion, leading to a gradual recovery in market sentiment and a return of overnight rates below 1.5%[1] - By July 18, overnight rates settled at 1.49% and 1.46% for R001 and DR001, while 7-day rates approached 1.50%[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The central bank's supportive stance suggests that liquidity is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations, with overnight rates expected to return to around 1.4% and 7-day rates fluctuating around 1.50%[2] - A total of over 20 trillion yuan in public market maturities is expected next week, including 17,268 billion yuan in reverse repos and 2,000 billion yuan in MLF maturities[2] - The upcoming week will see a significant amount of certificates of deposit maturing, with a total of 10,699 billion yuan, but the impact on liquidity is expected to be limited due to manageable bank liabilities[2] Group 3: Public Market and Government Bonds - From July 14-18, the central bank's net injection in the public market was 12,011 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 13,011 billion yuan[3] - Government bond net payments are projected to decrease to 2,399 billion yuan for the week of July 21-25, with a notable increase in local government bond payments[5] - The issuance of government bonds is set to rise significantly, with planned issuance of 7,508 billion yuan, including 3,750 billion yuan in national bonds and 3,758 billion yuan in local bonds[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.62%, reflecting a 1 basis point increase from the previous week[6] - The pressure from maturing certificates of deposit is expected to rise, with 10,699 billion yuan maturing in the week of July 21-25, marking a relative high for the year[6] - The overall market for certificates of deposit is showing signs of tightening, with a decrease in the proportion of longer-term issuances[6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,875 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 18, maintaining an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,028 billion yuan after 847 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - For the week, the People's Bank of China executed a total of 17,268 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, leading to a total net injection of 12,011 billion yuan after accounting for 4,257 billion yuan in reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in 1-year MLF maturing [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) remained stable, with the overnight Shibor decreasing by 0.10 basis points to 1.4620%, and the 7-day Shibor down by 1.00 basis points to 1.4940% [1] Group 2 - The overnight funding rate in the interbank pledged repo market fell below 1.5%, while the 14-day funding rate saw a slight increase. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 0.7 basis points and 2.4 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes dropping significantly [1] - The overall funding environment on July 18 was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates stabilizing around 1.48%-1.50% and 7-day rates remaining stable [10] - A total of 169 interbank certificates of deposit were issued on July 18, with an actual issuance volume of 2,617.7 billion yuan, reflecting active trading sentiment in the primary market [11] Group 3 - The Financial Regulatory Administration held a meeting emphasizing the need to advance the reform of small and medium financial institutions and effectively prevent and resolve key area risks [14] - The People's Bank of China is soliciting opinions on the "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures (Draft for Comments)," which includes 26 articles focusing on the types and scope of brokerage institutions and risk isolation requirements [14] - The People's Bank of China is also seeking feedback on the draft supervision and management measures for financial institutions regarding anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing, detailing regulatory responsibilities and requirements [14]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) | | 表1：国债期货7月17日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.750 | 120.750 | 120.730 | 120.730 | -0.020 | -0.02 | 70445 | 116611 | -275 | | TL25 ...