Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - **Fundamentals**: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - **Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply**: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - **Monetary Policy and Capital Market**: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - **Equity Market and Institutional Behavior**: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 01 日 固 定 收 益 央行新工具意义何在 地方债发行放量期限压缩 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260201 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 5805 亿元，本周一有 2000 亿元 MLF 到期，周三财政部开展 1500 亿元 1M 国库现金定存操作，中标利率 连续 3 月维持在 1.73%。本周初 OMO 净投放规模有限，但 MLF 到期叠 加缴准以及政府债大量缴款，使得资金边际收紧，但此后外生扰动减弱， 临近月末央行投放规模也逐步增大，DR001 回落至 1.33%附近。 益 定 期 报 告 质押式回购成交量周一后持续回落；质押式回购整体规模周四前震荡 回升，周五明显回落。大型银行净融出在周一下行后维持震荡，中小型银 行净融出周四前持续上行，周五回落但仍高于上周；银行整体净融出维持 震荡，中枢较上周略有回落。非银刚性融出持续上升，其中货基、其他产 品、理财融出延续上升。非银刚性融入震荡上行，其中其他产品升幅较大。 资金缺口指数在周一上行后持续回落，但周五再度走高，季调后指数升至- 4098，略高于上周五的-4961，而季调前指数周五为- ...

[Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况： 1 月资金面，两轮波动，中枢平稳 回顾开年以来资金利率走势，月内资金经历两轮波动。第一轮波动于 14 日前 后。随着央行回笼跨年资金，加之 13日买断式逆回购续作时点错位，资金缺口压力 达到阶段性峰值。叠加银行融出下降、北交所密集新股发行等多因素影响，资金利 率于 14 日快速升至 1.49%，R007 亦突破 1.6%。月内第二轮资金波动源于税期与 跨月需求的紧密衔接，二者叠加推升资金价格季节性走升，R001、R007 分别收于 1.51%、1.64%，整体跨月压力不算大。 [Table_Title] 春节前，政府债发行提速 全月来看，资金中枢仍维持平稳，R007 月均值较前月下行 2.2bp 至 1.55%、 DR007 小幅上行 1.8bp 至 1.51%附近。隔夜资金中枢整体较去年 12 月有所上行， R001、DR001 月均值分别环比上行 4.7、5.5bp 至 1.41%、1.34%。 1 月资金面"变中趋稳"的背后，主要得益于供给端的支撑。一方面是央行投放 相对"慷慨"，为资金面宽松奠定基础。1 月国债买卖数据 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's continuous liquidity injection through medium-term tools and stable short-term interest rates are leading to a focus on the funding dynamics around the Spring Festival [1] - Despite increased funding disturbances due to factors like credit "New Year opening" and seasonal cash withdrawal demands, the overall pressure on the funding environment remains controllable under the central bank's support [1][4] - Historical trends indicate that funding prices typically enter a seasonal tightening window in the two weeks before the Spring Festival, followed by marginal easing afterward [2] Group 2 - The seasonal factors affecting the funding environment include the "New Year opening" of bank liabilities and the impact of the "big tax period" in January, which may create liquidity shocks [3] - The central bank has significantly increased the net injection of medium-term liquidity, with a total of 1 trillion yuan injected through reverse repos and MLF in January, reflecting a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4] - It is expected that the central bank will maintain a reasonable liquidity level, with anticipated liquidity injections before the Spring Festival ranging from 3 trillion to 3.5 trillion yuan to ensure stable funding across the holiday period [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of interest rate bonds oscillating within a range remains unchanged. In the quarterly dimension, inflation and monetary policy are the anchor factors for the upper and lower limits of the oscillation; in the weekly dimension, it is expected to have narrow - amplitude fluctuations before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market and the trend of the capital market, and focus on varieties around 3Y and the opportunity for the narrowing of the spread between 30Y - 10Y Treasury bonds [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds Price - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the central bank's net investment in the open - market exceeded 90 billion yuan. The MLF operation scale reached 90 billion yuan, with an over - quota renewal of 70 billion yuan. The total net investment of 3M and 6M repurchase with ownership transfer this month was 30 billion yuan. The funds price showed differentiation, with DR001 falling below 1.4%, DR007 rising to 1.59%, and the 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit rate remaining basically flat [9]. 3.2 Primary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, 87 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with an actual issuance amount of 744.1 billion yuan. The issuance scale of special bonds continued to increase. Since the beginning of the year, the issuance term of local bonds has generally been extended, which may be a long - term feature throughout 2026, aiming to take advantage of the low - interest - rate window period and relieve the repayment pressure in recent years [11]. 3.3 Secondary Market - From January 23rd to January 29th, 2026, the bond market continued the previous strong - biased oscillation trend. In terms of the term structure, the yield of Treasury bonds around 5Y declined the most; the 1Y Treasury bonds were relatively weak, mainly affected by the overall increase in the funds price since the beginning of the year; the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds recovered. There were few substantial positive events in the bond market during the statistical period. Three pieces of information on the news were positive: the winning bid rate of MLF in January might decline; the market expected the central bank to launch a new overnight monetary policy tool; the market expected the central bank to significantly increase bond purchases in January [13]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, there is little fundamental data information at the beginning of the year, mainly focusing on the January PMI data and inflation data. If the January PMI month - on - month data improves again, the upper limit of the interest rate oscillation range needs to be further adjusted upward. - In terms of funds, the central bank has released trillions of funds through repurchase with ownership transfer and MLF. It is expected that the repurchase with ownership transfer in February will continue to be renewed in an over - quota manner, and the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival will decrease accordingly. The funds price may continue to rise slightly at the beginning of February [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the index opportunities are better than individual stocks. The equity market was differentiated on Thursday, with the dividend and large-cap styles being strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro-cap styles being weak. The strong sectors were concentrated in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" had a positive impact on pro - cyclical sectors. There is a concentration of profit - making effects, and it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. - For stock index options, there was an intraday style switch, and option trading volume rebounded. After the market style switch, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - end of the bond market showed a strong trend. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising risk appetite in the equity market was negative for the long - end. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the equity market was differentiated. The dividend and large - cap styles were strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro - cap styles were weak. The strong sectors were in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" was an important factor for the market rebound. There were more falling stocks than rising stocks, with nearly a thousand stocks falling more than 3%. The profit - making effect was concentrated [1][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: Apart from the inflation theme, there is no core logical change. In the context of a weakening US dollar, it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. (2) Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market oscillated in the morning and had a style switch in the afternoon. Large - cap blue - chips represented by the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose significantly, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 - related varieties fell. Option trading volume rebounded. The 50ETF volatility did not rise significantly after the increase, and the seller's cautious attitude wavered [2][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: After the market movement, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were differentiated, with long - term bonds being weak and short - term bonds being strong, and the yield curve steepened. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising equity market was negative for the long - end [3][7]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: The central bank still cares about the money market, and the end - of - month factor may have limited impact on the money market. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7].

新华财经北京1月29日电债市周四（1月29日）延续横盘整理，上日"小作文"一度改善交投情绪，但午后 期限券重回偏弱波动，国债期货全线收跌，银行间现券收益率上行幅度在0.5BP以内；公开市场单日净 投放1438亿元，资金利率走势有所分化。 业内人士认为，资金面本周较为平稳，料跨月流动性压力有限。传言中针对银行的"隔夜逆回购"措施， 机构认为有一定可能，但关键还在于其定位。总体而言，此次传闻对债市更多是情绪上的扰动，趋势性 利好有限。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.07%报112.17，10年期主力合约涨0.06%报108.25，5年期 主力合约涨0.01%报105.875，2年期主力合约持平于102.394。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率上行居多，仅超长端收益率延续回落，5年期和10年期日债收益率上行1.3BP 和1.7BP，30年期日债收益率下行1BP。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间1月27日，10年期法债收益率涨0.1BP报3.435%，10年期德债收益率涨0.8BP 报2.873%，10年期意债收益率涨0.3BP报3.467%，10年期西债收益率涨0.2BP报3.229%。其他市场方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, with a significant increase in mid-term liquidity injections in January 2023, despite a relatively modest net injection in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On January 28, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 377.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan after 363.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The total net injection for the week reached 84.2 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [1]. - The PBOC's operations in January included a net injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos and 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a net injection of 1 trillion yuan for the month, significantly higher than December's 300 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - As of January 28, the overnight repo rate (DR001) slightly decreased to 1.367% from 1.3674%, while the 7-day repo rate (DR007) fell to 1.5479% from 1.5833%, reflecting a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's proactive measures, including the early renewal of MLF, indicate a strong intention to support the liquidity in the market, especially ahead of the Chinese New Year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to February, potential liquidity disturbances are anticipated due to increased cash withdrawals before the Spring Festival and sustained high levels of government bond issuance [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement 14-day reverse repos and continue flexible operations with reverse repos and MLF to inject mid-term liquidity into the market [3]. - Despite the low probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with controlled volatility in both DR007 and DR001 rates [3].

Market Overview - The bond market showed signs of warming up with a general decline in interbank bond yields, particularly for government bonds with maturities of 5 years and above, where the 10-year government bond yield approached 1.81% [1] - The net injection in the open market was 14 billion yuan, leading to a decline in short-term funding rates across the board [1] Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.07% to 112.09, the 10-year main contract up by 0.05% to 108.21, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 105.87 [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.50% to 531.58 points, with notable increases in several convertible bonds, including N Lianrui and Jinjiji bonds, which rose by 30.00% and 13.82% respectively [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.64 basis points to 3.596% and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.79 basis points to 4.243% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year government bonds also increased, with French bonds rising by 0.1 basis points to 3.435% and German bonds up by 0.8 basis points to 2.873% [3] Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 2-year and 3-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5501% and 1.6044%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.34 and 4.54 [4] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's local bonds showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 15 times for both the 20-year and 30-year bonds [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a total amount of 377.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates declined across the board, with the overnight rate down by 0.5 basis points to 1.366% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that long-term government bonds are primarily priced by funds, which have significant holdings and trading volumes, while rural commercial banks have weaker pricing power [6] - Huaxi Fixed Income pointed out that the current interest rate decline is driven by a supply-demand mismatch, with banks increasing their allocations in the secondary market [7] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank indicated that while this week is a data vacuum period, supply pressure from government bonds will gradually emerge, and the market is sensitive to negative news [7]