光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续下挫，伊以达成停火协议，市场担忧情绪缓和。 | | | | 其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘下跌 4.14 美元至 64.37 美元/桶，跌幅 | | | | 6.04%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 4.34 美元至 67.14 美元/桶，跌 | | | | 幅 6.07%。SC2508 以 502.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 51.3 元/桶，跌幅为 | | | | 9.27%。伊朗最高国家安全委员会发表声明，宣布与"以色列及其 | | | | 支持者"停火。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，如果以色列不违反停 | | | | 火协议，伊朗就不会违反。他称，伊方已准备在谈判桌上进行对 | | | | 话，争取并实现伊朗人民的合法权利。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡当 | | | 原油 | 天早些时候发表声明称，接受美国总统特朗普提出的停火协议。 | 震荡 | | | API 6 20 423 公布的数据显示，截至 月 日当周，美国原油库存减少 | | ...

品种观点 股指期货 - 6月24日A股三大指数集体走强，沪指涨1.15%收报3420.57点，深证成指涨1.68%收报10217.63点，创业板指涨2.30%收报2064.13点，沪深两市成交额达14146亿，较昨日大幅放量2920亿 [1] 焦炭 焦煤 - 6月24日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价1355.6元，环比下跌26.5；焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价792.7元，环比下跌13.0 [2] - 焦炭受环保检查及焦化利润收紧等因素影响开工降低，钢厂原料备货低库存，刚需及采购需求走弱，河北及山东主流钢厂落实第四轮50 - 55元/吨提降 [3] - 焦煤因安全生产及环保检查放缓生产节奏，原煤供给环比走低，但矿山累库压力不减，库存处历史高位，钢焦企业放缓补库，中长期过剩格局难改 [3] 郑糖 - 美糖周一窄幅震荡小幅收低，受原油价格下跌影响多头平仓打压，郑糖2509月合约周二小幅走低，夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡 [3] - 2025年5月我国成品糖产量37.7万吨，同比增长59.1%；1 - 5月累计产量906.6万吨，同比增长4.9% [3] - 截止6月17日当周，对冲基金及大型投机客持有的原糖净空头仓位47141手，触及近年来高位，较之前一周增加27626手 [3] 胶 - 受原油价格大幅走低与东南亚现货报价下调等因素影响，沪胶周二震荡下行，夜盘因短线跌幅大受技术面影响震荡整理 [4] - 2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%；1 - 5月产量4.88962亿条，同比增2.8% [4] - 2025年5月中国合成橡胶产量69.9万吨，同比增加3.7%；1 - 5月累计产量353.4万吨，同比增加6.2% [4] 豆粕 - 国际市场6月24日CBOT大豆期货偏弱运行，美国中西部有利天气改善作物收成前景令价格承压，截止6月22日当周大豆优良率66%，低于预期和去年同期 [4] - 巴西全国谷物出口商协会预估6月大豆出口量达1499万吨，高于前一周预估值 [6] - 国内市场6月24日豆粕主力M2509收于3037元/吨，较前一交易日持平，5月中国从巴西进口大豆1211万吨，较去年同期激增37.5%，创下单月进口新高 [6] 生猪 - 6月23日生猪主力LH2509合约收于13905元/吨，跌幅0.29% [6] - 养殖端出栏情绪分化，中大猪认卖积极性提升，标猪认卖意愿一般，二育有滚动入场现象 [6] - 居民消费疲软，气温升高、饮食结构调整致鲜品猪肉走货差，商品猪出栏处于恢复期，猪源供应逐月递增，市场供需宽松，期货盘面上行空间受限 [6] 棕榈油 - 6月24日因中东局势缓和原油大幅回落，棕榈油期价跌2.28%，当日最高价8500，最低价8306，收盘8326 [7] - 印尼4月棕榈油出口量178万吨，较去年同期的218万吨下降，4月毛棕榈油产量448万吨，较3月增加，截至4月末库存量304万吨 [7] 沪铜 - 美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，表态偏鸽，市场对降息预期提升，短暂提振铜价 [7] - 铜库存不断刷新阶段性低位，为铜价提供支撑，短期内沪铜在供应收缩预期和需求可能回暖作用下，价格下方空间有限，但需求端疲软，上方空间或受限 [7] 铁矿石 - 6月24日铁矿石2509主力合约震荡收跌，跌幅0.42%，收盘价703元 [8] - 本期铁矿海外发运量环比回升，国内到港量同步增加，供应环比宽松，钢厂高炉利润尚可按需补库，铁水产量止跌回升，短期呈震荡走势 [8] 沥青 - 6月24日沥青2509主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅5.01%，收盘价3580元 [8] - 沥青产能利用率环比回落，库存下滑，供应维持低位，出货情况改善，因中东地缘局势缓和原油价格调整，成本端上行驱动消失，短期价格震荡运行 [8] 棉花 - 周二夜盘郑棉主力合约收盘13565元/吨，6月25日全国棉花交易市场新疆指定交割（监管）仓库基差报价最低430元/吨，棉花库存较上一交易日减少74张 [8] 原木 - 6月24日2507开盘816、最低802.5、最高818.5、收盘806.5、日减仓2093手，关注806 - 820区间波动 [9] - 6月24日山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格750元/方，江苏4米中A辐射松原木现货价格760元/方，较昨日持平 [9] - 1 - 5月原木进口量同比减少13.4%，5月进口量同比减少18.5%，港口原木库存逼近5个月新低，需求弱，供需无大矛盾，现货成交弱 [9] 钢材 - 6月24日rb2510收报2977元/吨，hc2510收报3099元/吨 [9] - 螺纹钢供应回升，需求季节性弱势，供增需弱基本面延续弱稳，钢价承压，但库存低位，现实矛盾有限，预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势 [9] 氧化铝 - 6月24日ao2509收报2903元/吨 [10] - 矿端无较大扰动，国内前期停产检修企业复产，但氧化铝价格走软利润下行，对供应形成压制，利润空间或继续缩窄，底部有成本支撑 [10] 沪铝 - 6月24日al2508收报于20315元/吨 [10] - 国内电解铝生产稳定，交易所 + 社会库存小幅累库，现货升水状态维持，未锻轧铝及铝材出口量走增，下游需求进入淡季，压铸企业开工率下行，价格运行上下有限 [10]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

港口库存小幅下降，产地煤价再次强势反弹。本周，产地动力煤价格再次强势反弹，监 管趋严导致供给量有一定缩减，随着供需关系的逐步改善，价格有望止跌企稳。 焦煤价格一降再降，焦钢总库存继续走低。本周，炼焦煤市场价格继续下降，焦炭第四 轮提降开启，市场观望情绪浓厚，下游多以维持刚需为主，预计焦煤市场将延续偏弱走势。 权益市场以跌为主，煤炭板块稍不及指数。本周，央行开展买断式逆回购操作，10天累 计投放1.4万亿元，缓解市场资金压力，以色列与伊朗冲突升级，推升国际油价和金价，能 源板块表现较为突出，但对权益市场的整体情绪产生一定压制。整体看，只有银行、通信、 电子行业上涨，市场平均成交额1.2万亿元，市场情绪回落，煤炭行业稍不及大盘指数。 综合上述分析，动力煤方面，监管趋严，供给量有一定缩减，叠加高温天增多，电厂日 耗有望逐渐提升，随着供需关系的逐步改善，价格有望止跌企稳，但在高库存的制约下，预 计价格以弱稳运行为主。炼焦煤方面，焦炭第四轮提降开启，市场观望情绪浓厚，下游多以 维持刚需为主，由于煤价重心逐步下移、库存处于低位，预计焦煤市场将延续偏弱走势，价 格降幅有望收窄。二级市场方面，央行开展4000亿元买断式逆回购 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market in 2025 differs significantly from 2023. Current demand support is weakening, and future demand may be over - drawn. Although short - term fundamentals have limited pressure, the upward space of the steel futures market is restricted [3]. - The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. Considering the approaching off - season, the current state is acceptable. Prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. - The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. - The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. - The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed minor fluctuations compared to June 20. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil remained relatively stable [4][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The current steel market has limited short - term fundamental pressure, but the upward space of the futures market is restricted due to factors such as the approaching off - season and potential over - drawn future demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased slightly compared to June 20, while the basis decreased. The prices of iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed minor changes [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. With the approaching off - season, prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The coking profit decreased slightly [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. Ferroalloy - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the ferroalloy (silicon - iron and silicon - manganese) futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese also changed [59][60]. - **Market Analysis**: The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and spreads showed minor changes compared to June 20. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also changed [71][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the glass futures prices and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions also changed [99][101]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [2][22] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined. In the Shahe area, the initial weekly shipment was average, with small - plate prices mostly lowered. Subsequently, the mid - and downstream made appropriate purchases, and the overall shipment improved slightly, with small - plate prices rising and some large - plate market prices also increasing slightly. The Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan market was lackluster, with the transaction center moving downward and different shipment situations among manufacturers. In the East China market, the negotiation center declined, demand follow - up was weak, the willingness of mid - and downstream to replenish inventory was low, and local enterprise prices continued to fall due to the inflow of low - priced external goods [8] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply - side Analysis**: As of June 19, the national float glass output was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88%. The average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. As of June 19, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [12] - **Demand - side Analysis**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased. Enterprises maintaining orders have seen a significant compression of profit feedback due to low - price competition, and the phenomenon of workers taking turns off has increased in some areas, with the tempering start - up rate declining. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak. From January to May 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area was 183.85 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%. In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, and the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry improved. In May, the automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles [14] - **Inventory Analysis**: As of June 19, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. In the North China region, the initial weekly shipment was average and then improved slightly. Mid - and downstream enterprises made appropriate purchases according to their own situations, with different situations among enterprises. The average production - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous week, and the inventory increased slightly. In the East China region, the overall shipment of the float glass market improved slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall inventory decreased slightly [17] 2.2 Position Analysis - As of June 20, the long positions of the top 20 members in glass futures were 896,394, an increase of 12,633; the short positions were 1,144,221, an increase of 47,890. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of float glass enterprises is poor. With the expected output of glass from previously ignited production lines and the possibility of some production lines storing water, the supply may decline slightly. The terminal demand for float glass remains weak, the orders of downstream deep - processing enterprises are weak, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased slightly. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure of the 09 contract at the 1050 level. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, with attention to stop - loss [22]

这两年，黄金总是重复以两种方式登上热搜：大涨与大跌。 进入6月，黄金登上热搜的趋向更加明显——大跌。在反复震荡的金价中，不少靠黄金避险属性获利的投资者，纷纷感叹"避险"变"风险"。他们一边期待 着金价的回温，一边也忍不住将视线投向其他投资品。 白银、黄金则在此时拉开了领涨的序幕。 6月23日，截至成稿，Wind数据显示，伦敦现货白银价格达到36.11美元/盎司，现货铂金涨超2%，报价1291.4美元/盎司。 这并非银价和铂金首次崭露头角。 5月下旬以来，白银、铂金等贵金属开始活跃。白银突破关键的36美元/盎司关口，刷新13年来的最高纪录，年内累计最大涨幅接近25%。铂金年内的累计 涨幅已超过36%，高于黄金的年内涨幅。 （网友评论/图） （社交平台网友分享/图） 另一方面，关于铂金、白银是否能成为"黄金平替"，不少投资者仍然表示不看好。 120万元购入铂金增值超7万元 一方面，已有胆大的投资者看准时机，一头扎入贵金属投资中。 据经济观察报报道，在4月初，在铂金价格230元/克左右，就有投资者买入了价值约120万元的铂金板料和铂金条（1000克铂金板料2块，克价233.7元； 100克铂金条30块，克价238. ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Chang'an Research - Methanol Weekly Report", dated June 23, 2025, focusing on the methanol market [1][2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core View - Due to the unresolved Middle - East geopolitical conflict, methanol prices continue to rise. Iranian methanol plants are shut down, increasing import reduction expectations and strengthening the basis in coastal areas. The rise in crude oil prices also has a positive feedback on methanol prices. Domestically, supply is increasing, while demand is stable with limited growth. The short - term market trend depends on the geopolitical situation. If tensions persist, the market will be stable and slightly strong; if the situation eases, prices will fall from high levels. The impact of Iranian production and export restrictions will be felt after July, and near - month contracts are relatively stronger. However, the potential for price increase is limited as the current prices are close to the annual high, and the risk of further price speculation is increasing [3][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to rise. Geopolitical conflict news in the Middle - East fermented, causing significant fluctuations in energy and chemical products. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, the supply - side impact on methanol was more severe. The 2509 contract rose by over 5% last week. In the spot market, prices in various regions increased significantly, and the basis in Jiangsu's Taicang expanded. The price difference between regions widened, opening up arbitrage opportunities [6] 3.2 Supply Side - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants increased last week, and production continued to rise. Some previously shut - down or reduced - load plants resumed operation, and the overall recovery volume exceeded the loss. The current profit margins give little incentive for manufacturers to reduce production, and there are no planned maintenance plants in the near future. The capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, up 0.67 percentage points month - on - month and 5.12 percentage points year - on - year. Weekly production was 199.78 tons, up 1.52 tons month - on - month and 24.86 tons year - on - year [8] - **Overseas Supply**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate dropped significantly. The international methanol plant operating rate was 55.11%, down 15.8 percentage points month - on - month, and weekly production was 80.39 tons, down 23.05 tons month - on - month. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, Iranian methanol plants have all shut down, and there is a high possibility of further conflict escalation. Non - Iranian plants in North and South America are operating stably, while some in Southeast Asia and Africa have reduced production. Import reduction in July is almost certain [10] 3.3 Demand Side - In the demand side, port prices have risen sharply, leading to traders hoarding goods and downstream resistance. In the inland market, although price increases are smaller, downstream industries' profit margins have shrunk, and most enterprises are facing increased losses. As it is the consumption off - season, there is a greater expectation of plant load reduction. The MTO plant capacity utilization rate was 89.2%, up 0.64 percentage points month - on - month and 16.53 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO plant losses have increased, and there is a possibility of load reduction in the future. The capacity utilization rates of traditional downstream plants vary, with some increasing and some decreasing [11][15] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the methanol arrival volume at ports decreased, and ports significantly reduced inventory. This week's planned arrival volume is similar to last week's. However, due to the widened price difference between ports and inland areas, the arbitrage window has opened, and inland supply through road transportation has increased. With reduced downstream purchasing enthusiasm, ports may see inventory accumulation. As of June 20, coastal port methanol inventory was 95.38 tons, down 7.76 tons month - on - month and 16.31 tons year - on - year. Manufacturer inventory decreased, mainly in East, Central, and Southwest China. With the opening of the arbitrage window, manufacturers may continue to reduce inventory, supporting inland prices. As of June 20, manufacturer inventory was 36.74 tons, down 1.18 tons month - on - month and 5.99 tons year - on - year [17][18] 3.5 Cost Side - Last week, methanol prices rebounded significantly, increasing the profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol plants and narrowing the losses of southwest natural - gas - based plants. Coal prices slightly increased last week, with a decrease in inventory at northern ports. Market sentiment improved, and the number of inquiries increased. However, downstream users are still observing, and terminal users are only making necessary purchases. Although coal production is expected to increase slightly in June, the growth may be limited due to safety inspections. On the demand side, as it enters the peak electricity - coal consumption season, coal prices have stopped falling, but due to high inventory and the substitution effect of clean energy, the supply - demand situation remains weak, and coal price increases are expected to be limited [20][21] 3.6 Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are strongly fluctuating. Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, international crude oil prices have risen significantly. Although the current price is in a high - level shock and has not further increased, the main support comes from the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. There are also new positive factors such as the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. However, there are also negative factors, such as the IEA's significant increase in supply growth expectations and the continued export of Iranian oil. The future trend depends on Iran's response and whether the conflict will expand [23][24]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 1.25% [1] - Coking coal production is declining due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a slight increase in spot auction prices and a decrease in terminal inventory [1] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements remains ample, and despite the seasonal downturn in downstream iron and steel production, there is a certain level of optimism in the market [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the supply-demand imbalance for coking coal is easing, and geopolitical conflicts are providing support for energy commodities, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the short term [2] - However, downstream enterprises lack confidence in future demand, and the current rebound has not significantly improved spot market sentiment, with ongoing pressure from high upstream inventory levels [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while domestic coking coal prices have slightly rebounded, the overall supply-demand situation remains loose, and geopolitical disturbances may lead to short-term price fluctuations, but mid-term trends are expected to remain within a range [2]