中经院表示，数据反映"大部分厂商被关税吓到了"。面对关税不确定性，制造业厂商对前景担忧从而变 得保守。 数据显示，制造业六大产业中，三大产业PMI呈现紧缩，分别为交通工具产业(47.1%)、化学暨生技医 疗产业(48.2%)与基础原物料产业(48.7%)，另外三大产业PMI虽仍保持扩张，但均录得明显下跌。 未来展望指数则中断连续3个月扩张，指数骤跌23.1个百分点至36.0%，创下新冠疫情以来最大跌幅。六 大产业之未来展望指数皆滑落至20.0%至40.0%的紧缩速度。 据新华社台北电(记者李建华、杨晓静)台湾中华经济研究院公布的最新数据显示，4月台湾制造业采购 经理人指数(PMI)骤跌5.3个百分点至48.9%，结束连续两个月扩张转为收缩，未来展望指数创新冠疫情 以来最大跌幅。分析认为，美国关税政策影响厂商对未来前景的看法，厂商态度保守，多选择观望。 中经院近日公布的数据显示，在台湾PMI五项组成指标中，新增订单指数由2024年7月以来最快扩张速 度(56.8%)骤跌9.3个百分点至47.5%；生产指数也中断连续两个月扩张转为收缩，指数大跌8.3个百分点 至47.5%。中经院指出，新增订单指数与生产指数大跌并 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]

美国4月标普全球制造业PM1初值50.7，预期49.1，3月终值50.2; 服务业PM1初值51.4，预期52.8，3月终值54.4; 综合PM1初值51.2，预期 52.2, 3月终值53.5。 | 对于今年核心逻辑的预判在于国际关税政策走向，4月美国将对 | | | --- | --- | | 加拿大、墨西哥、欧洲等国家的关税政策再出反复,临近美线长 | | | 协定价窗口,报复性关税被加入谈判手段,对未来海运走向增加 | 短期策略:短期外盘政策动荡,操作难度较大,各合约若要参与建 | | 一个较大的扰动因素,在运价上各船司有意挺价,但绕不开联盟 | 议以中长线为主。 | | 间的价格战。综上述,我们认为一需要关注MSK与MSC在第二 | 套利策略:关税发酵背景下,可关注反套结构,窗口期较短,波动 | | 炭 季度开展的价格战问题,二是激进的关税政策下终端需求的反馈 | 较大。 | | | 长期策略:建议风险偏好者可尝试2508合约跌至1600点以下轻仓 | | | 试多，2510合约1200点以下轻仓试多，设置好止损。 | | 4月30日主力合约2506收盘1324.3, 涨幅为3.42%, 成交量 | ...

金十数据5月6日讯，欧元区经济4月继续扩张，但步伐放缓，因需求减弱，占主导地位的服务业几乎停 滞不前，暗示该地区的复苏依然脆弱。欧元区4月综合PMI产出指数从3月份的50.9降至50.4。该指数仅 略高于50的荣枯分水岭。欧元区经济增长在今年前三个月回升后，在第二季度初放缓。汉堡商业银行首 席经济学家赛勒斯•德拉鲁比亚表示："作为主要参与者的服务业在4月份几乎停滞不前。"服务业PMI从 3月份的51.0降至50.1，为5个月来最低，仅略高于中性门槛。与此同时，服务业企业的乐观情绪减弱， 企业预期指数从57.8降至55.1，为2022年底以来的低点。 PMI显示，欧元区4月经济增长放缓，服务业接近停滞 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The A-share market is expected to continue the trend of volatile upward movement after the holiday, and the gap formed on April 7 is expected to be filled. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocation, and reasonably control their position levels [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, IF2505 closed at 3752.0 points, down 22.8 points or 0.6% from the previous week. IH2505 closed at 2627.2 points, down 17.8 points or 0.67% from the previous week [5]. (2) Fundamental Analysis - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [7]. - In April, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand [9]. - In April, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that China's business production and operation activities continued to expand [11]. (3) Valuation Analysis - As of May 5, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.3 times, the quantile was 63.14%, and the PB was 1.74 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.65 times, the quantile was 61.76%, and the PB was 1.17 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, the quantile was 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [16]. (4) Other Data - The stock-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the stock-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [23][24]. (5) Comprehensive Analysis - During the pre-holiday trading period, the A-share market showed a volatile and weak adjustment trend, and investor sentiment was relatively cautious. During the "May Day" holiday, the Hong Kong stock market performed strongly, which is expected to inject positive momentum into the A-share market after the holiday [27].

金十数据5月6日讯，法国4月服务业连续第八个月萎缩，新订单大幅减少。标普HCOB法国服务业PMI 指数从3月份的47.9降至4月份的47.3，表明该行业收缩速度加快。4月终值高于初值46.8。调查显示，新 订单迅速加速下降，需求状况依然疲弱，竞争压力使价格保持稳定。汉堡商业银行初级经济学家乔纳斯 •费尔德胡森表示："4月份标志着法国私营部门活动再次下滑。法国服务业仍处于下行轨道。由于客户 需求下降和市场环境普遍恶化，4月份商业活动再次下滑。" PMI显示，4月份法国服务业进一步收缩 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

首席点评：新关税担忧引发市场波澜 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI环比双降，需求端收缩显著，但生产端仍处相对高位（49.8%），新出口订 单指数下跌至44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期"抢出口"虽支撑货运量增1.3%，但外需疲态已显现。内 需韧性分化，订单指数微降2.3%，消费品行业PMI仅降0.6%，消费支撑力较强。美国一季度GDP年化下 降0.3%，不过自3月市场已经对一季度的经济萎缩有一定心理准备。4月的非农数据显示美国就业市场 仍然强劲，此背景下5月美联储大概率继续按兵不动，同时市场对6月降息的预期有所降温。关税谈判方 面仍未有明显进展，而昨日特朗普表示要对非美国制作影片征收100%关税引发关税规模再度升级的担 忧。 重点品种： 原油 、贵金属、铜 原油： 欧佩克及其同盟八国进一步加快增产，引发对更多供应的担忧，欧美原油期货继续下跌。八个 参与国将在 2025年6月从2025年5月所需的生产水平开始实施每天41.1万桶的生产调整，这相当于三个月 的增量。欧佩克及其减产同盟国八国加速减产的决定公布后，国际油价一度下跌近5%。但是中东局势 有恶化的可能，尾盘国际油价缩窄跌幅。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡发誓要对伊朗进 ...

Core Insights - The S&P Global Australia Composite PMI decreased from 51.6 to 51 in April 2025, indicating a slight reduction in the growth rate of Australia's private sector output, which has been increasing for seven consecutive months [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The number of new export orders in Australia's private sector declined again in April, but the overall growth rate of new orders reached its highest level since May 2022 [1] - The average input costs in Australia's private sector grew at the fastest pace since September of the previous year, leading businesses to raise selling prices to the highest level in nine months [2] - The services sector's business activity index fell from 51.6 to 51, marking the 15th consecutive month above the 50-point threshold, indicating ongoing expansion [2] Group 2: Business Sentiment and Employment - Despite the increase in business activity, the optimism level among private enterprises remains low, falling to a five-month low and below historical averages [1][2] - The services sector experienced a significant increase in new business and backlog of work, with the fastest growth in nearly three years, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming months [2] - Companies are continuing to hire at a steady pace to manage increased workloads, although concerns over trade uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff measures, have dampened business sentiment [2]