Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's Waller advocates a moderate pace of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to weaken; the A - share market on December 17 showed a significant volume - based recovery, indicating the national team's support for the long - slow bull market; the commodity market has different trends in various sectors, such as the sugar market being affected by production and export in Brazil and India, and the energy market being influenced by geopolitical events and inventory changes. [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bostic is more worried about inflation than employment; the US Senate passed a $900.6 billion defense authorization bill. Gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, and silver prices soared. In the short term, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is weak, and the market lacks incremental stimuli. [11][12] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend of gold prices is volatile and has not broken through, and the sentiment for silver is high, so be aware of increased volatility. [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US plans to sanction Russia's energy industry if Putin rejects the peace agreement; Treasury Secretary Bezant refutes concerns about Hassett as Fed chair candidate; Fed's Waller, a top candidate, advocates a moderate rate - cut pace. [14][15] - Investment suggestion: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term. [18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Oracle's $10 - billion data center financing faces obstacles, while Micron's performance and guidance exceed expectations. The Fed's Waller believes there is room for rate cuts but no need to rush. [19][20][21] - Investment suggestion: The short - term trend is weakly volatile, but maintain a generally bullish view. [22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - On December 17, A - shares had a significant volume - based recovery. The national team's support for the stock market is evident, which further boosts confidence in the long - slow bull market of A - shares. [23][25] - Investment suggestion: Allocate evenly in long positions of various stock indexes. [26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. The market for treasury bond futures rose, but the long - end bonds are volatile. [27] - Investment suggestion: Be cautious about the rise of TL, and be careful when chasing the rise. [28] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for January and the export tariff. The reduction in export tax and approaching Ramadan may boost exports in January. [29] - Investment suggestion: The price is expected to stabilize, waiting for the release of subsequent high - frequency data. [29] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - There will be an auction of 550,000 tons of imported soybeans on December 19. The market is worried about US soybean exports, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient with high soybean meal inventory. [30] - Investment suggestion: The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. [30] 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The drafting of the "Guidelines for the Construction of the Carbon Emission Data Factor Library in the Steel Industry" started. The steel price is slightly stronger in a volatile pattern, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints and export issues. [31][33] - Investment suggestion: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices. [34] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of starch enterprises has increased, with stable production and weak downstream demand. However, the approaching holiday season may bring some demand growth. [35] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the price difference between corn starch and corn may not deviate significantly from the processing cost, and it may widen after approaching the previous low. [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory in the southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price has shifted from a decline to a narrow - range fluctuation. [37] - Investment suggestion: The futures contracts 03 and 05 are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. [37] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December. In mid - November, sugar production in southern Brazil decreased due to factors such as early harvest and low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased. The international sugar market may be in short supply in the first quarter, but the overall supply is expected to be loose this season. [38][40][41] - Investment suggestion: The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited. [42] 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market is weakly stable. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price of coking coal futures has fallen, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [43][44] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether subsequent restocking can support the price. [45] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The winning bid price of Three Gorges' 2.5GW component procurement is 0.75 - 0.763 yuan/W. Some polysilicon enterprises have raised their quotes. The establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is expected to support the price, but the upward space is limited considering downstream losses. [46][47][48] - Investment suggestion: For existing long positions, gradually take profits. Consider buying put options. [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A 2.5GW solar cell joint - venture project is planned. Some silicon factories may have production cuts, but the inventory may still accumulate in the first quarter of next year if the production cuts are not sustained. [49][50] - Investment suggestion: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. [50] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A new nickel - containing mineral, Jinxiuite, was discovered. The planned nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be 250 million tons, which may cause a supply shortage. The current production of NPI and pure nickel has decreased, and it is advisable to short on rallies next year without supply disruptions. [51][52] - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to whether the quota reduction can be implemented. [53] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Shandong launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which has limited impact on the lead recycling industry. The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The lead market is weakly stable, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. [54][55] - Investment suggestion: Short on rallies in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage. [56] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME will set position limits for six metals from July 2026. The LME zinc inventory has increased, and the domestic refinery production cuts are being implemented. The zinc demand is strong, and positive spreads in monthly contracts are expected to perform well. [57] - Investment suggestion: Look for buying opportunities on mid - term pullbacks; hold positive spread positions in monthly contracts; maintain the reverse spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets. [58] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining rights, which has increased market expectations for fundamental improvement. The social inventory is decreasing, but the price may decline after the resumption of production. [59][60] - Investment suggestion: In the short term, the bullish sentiment is supported, but consider buying on pullbacks in the medium - to - long term. [60] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin inventory and the SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts have increased. Indonesia's tin export in November increased significantly. The supply from Myanmar is increasing, and the demand remains weak. [61][62][63] - Investment suggestion: The tin price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and beware of price drops due to geopolitical easing or capital outflows. [63] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the long - term supply risk is relatively small. [64][65] - Investment suggestion: The short - term price will be affected by geopolitical changes. [66] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt has decreased. The demand is weak, but the supply is at a seasonal low, and the price is expected to be stable. Geopolitical risks may increase the cost of asphalt raw materials. [66] - Investment suggestion: The asphalt price is strongly supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. [67] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has decreased slightly. The styrene price is weakly volatile, and it may enter a inventory - building phase in early next year, but the cost may provide some support. [68][69][70] - Investment suggestion: Consider the price to be volatile in the short term. [70] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC's annual container volume at Qingdao Port exceeded 3 million TEUs. The opening price of MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam route was lower than expected, and the market may focus on the high - point and decline slope. [71] - Investment suggestion: Hold existing short positions and pay attention to whether other shipping companies will lower their quotes. [71]

英国朝野对此反应不一。英国首相斯塔默称这是"向好的一步"，他也承认民众仍受生活成本压力困扰。 保守党则批评通胀仍处高位，指责工党政策加剧经济压力。 英国媒体注意到，对普通民众而言，通胀放缓的感受尚不明显。有居民表示，工资增长滞后于物价涨 幅，被迫削减非必要开支。 通胀数据利好进一步抬升市场降息预期。目前英国央行基准利率维持在4%，外界普遍预计，央行或在 本月利率决议中宣布圣诞节前降息，以提振经济。(完) 中新社伦敦12月17日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)英国国家统计局17日发布数据显示，英国今年11月消费者价 格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.2%，较10月的3.6%显著回落，创下今年3月以来的最低水平，且降幅超出市场预 期。 数据显示，食品价格下跌是此次通胀降温的主因，蛋糕、饼干等品类降幅尤为明显，烟草价格走低及女 装折扣促销也助推通胀回落。剔除能源和食品的核心通胀率同步降至3.2%，显示通胀压力全面缓解。 不过，当前通胀率仍高于英国央行2%的目标。 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver investment rating: ★☆★ [1] - Platinum and palladium investment rating: ★☆☆ [1] Core View - US economic data validates the cooling trajectory, and the market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in 2026. Gold is running strongly and approaching the historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [1] Summary by Relevant Content US Economic Data - In November, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, and the employment in October decreased by 105,000 [1] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in December was 52.9, the lowest since June, with an expected 54 and a previous value of 54.1. The preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in December was 51.8, the lowest since July, with an expected 52.1 and a previous value of 52.2 [2] - US retail sales in October were flat compared to September, and the increase in the previous month was revised down to 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.1% increase [2] - According to the ADP weekly employment report, private - sector employers added an average of 16,250 jobs per week in the 4 weeks ending November 29 [2] Other Information - US media reported that Waller will be interviewed by Trump on Wednesday. After the report, the probability of Waller being a candidate for the Fed Chairman in the prediction market rose to 15% [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that Warsh and Hassett have the ability to lead the Fed, and it is speculated that the candidate for the Fed Chairman will be announced in early January next year [2] - US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said that there is still much room for interest rate cuts in the case of a positive supply - side shock [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 谭诗吟 2025 年 12 月 17 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 平庸的数据，微弱的影响 ——2025 年 11 月美国就业数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 10 月和 11 月就业数据。10 月就业人数下降 10.5 万 人，预期下降 2.5 万人；11 月新增非农 6.4 万人，预期 5 万人；11 月失业率 4.6%， 高于预期值 4.5%。8 月和 9 月新增非农均有下修，合计较修正前减少 3.3 万人。 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠t ...

Employment Data Summary - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, slightly above the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.5%[1] - The October non-farm payrolls were revised to a decrease of 105,000 due to significant federal government employee losses during the government shutdown[1] - The September non-farm payrolls were also revised down from 119,000 to 108,000[1] Sector Performance - In November, the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs, with construction contributing 28,000 jobs, indicating a recovery in the housing cycle[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs, down from 61,000 in the previous month, with notable declines in transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors[2] - Government employment continued to decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs in November following a loss of 157,000 in October[2] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The October government shutdown had broader impacts beyond government employment, affecting private sector job growth, which fell from 104,000 in September to 52,000 in October[3] - Retail sales in October showed no growth, indicating a temporary contraction in overall economic demand due to the shutdown[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in October, driven by a rise in employment among the 16-24 age group[4] - Job vacancy rates remained stable at 4.6%, suggesting a slight easing in recruitment demand[4] Unemployment Trends - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly to 8.7% from 8.0% in September, with part-time employment due to economic reasons increasing to 7.831 million[5] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 236,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment risks[5] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 increased slightly, with the average expected cut rising from 55.4 basis points to 59.3 basis points[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2026 rose from 49.5% to 53.2%, reflecting growing confidence in potential monetary easing[6]

渣打银行（Standard Chartered）高级投资策略师拉贾特·巴塔查里亚（Rajat Bhattacharya）在2026年展望 报告中指出，在地缘政治不确定性及全球财政宽松担忧的推动下，黄金开启了创纪录的上涨行情，今年 涨幅超50%，过去三年累计涨幅更是超过150%， 今年是黄金连续第二年跑赢股票和债券，且已连续10 年跑赢债券，他表示2026年黄金将再次跑赢全球股票和债券。 每日经济新闻 12月17日，受美疲软的经济数据催化，降息预期升温，金价持续走强，白银价格再创历史新高，截至A 股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4357美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.76%，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨2.27%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.97%。 今日盘面，大宗期货大面积上涨，碳酸锂涨超7%，沪银涨超5%，沪金涨0.8%，铜涨超1%。 ...

黄金本月横盘上破，多头二度爆发，一路狂飙150美金后。到今天接连冲高遇阻，高位洗盘，支撑上 移，重回4300上后，震荡走强，再战前高阻力。 昨天4281附近，再次空获利。 今天的走势 昨天黄金半夜惊坐起，来了超跌反弹。 直接起飞，冲高回落4300调整。 上方持续，再闯4353的强阻力。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，俄乌局势谈谈打打，又开始了和平推进计划，特朗普继续推进谈判进程，妥协或成为了唯一的 选择，整体积极信号明显。地缘风险退潮，影响黄金一个幅度回落。 另外一方面，美非农报告落地，结果11月就业数据增长6.4万，超预期的5万。不过意外的是美失业率超 预期，录得4.6，创4年的新高。劳动力市场失衡，而且加速恶化，提振降息预期，利好黄金大幅反弹。 整体强势归来，看二度反弹。 再次上破，看向4380的前高阻力。 当然了，处在4353下方，再次调整。 下方可再探4310的为主，关注支撑反弹延续。 另外，高位洗盘阶段，下方再次跌穿4310，看向4270的支撑。 黄金10月跳水后，到本月，走出了2个月的单边行情。一路爬坡，本月横盘整理后，多头再不改强势， 而且支撑上移，整体箭指历史新高，4400或已经不是什么意外。短期内 ...

11月17日，沪银期货显著走强，主力合约最高报15477.00元/千克，现涨幅达4.48%，续创历史新高，今年迄今累计涨超106%。 12月15日芝加哥商业交易所(CME)：白银期货成交量为125079手，较上个交易日减少80235手。未平仓合约为154451手，较上个交易日增加196 手。 机构观点 五矿期货：昨日公布的美国关键经济数据全面低于预期，令市场交易后续联储货币政策的进一步宽松，金银价格短线得到支撑。美国11月新增非 农就业人口数为6.4万人，高于预期的5万人，但十月份新增非农就业数据则录得10.5万人的下跌。从10月和11月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商 品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。美国非农就业数据偏弱提振降息预期，但银价在 前期传闻哈塞特提名过程中已录得大幅上涨，当前白银策略上建议维持观望。 兴业期货：白银长线上行驱动未变。但短线白银做多策略已较为拥挤，资金趋于谨慎，海外最大白银ETF连续两个交易日流出。白银短线做多性 价比低于黄金。策略上，沪银02合约前多配合止盈线持有，新单等待外盘白银"多逼空"行情结束、沪银价格波动率下行后的买入机会 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains Poland's GDP growth forecast at 3.2% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027, expecting a 25 basis point rate cut by the monetary policy committee in both years [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Investment - The implementation of projects funded by the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) has been slow, leading to only a moderate recovery in investment activity so far [1] - RRF-funded investments are expected to have a greater impact on economic growth in 2026 [1] - Bank loan growth continues to improve, driven by the corporate sector [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has been lower than expected, with the overall inflation rate dropping to 2.4% in November [1] - Core inflation is also gradually decreasing, reaching 3% in October [1] Group 3: Credit Ratings - Among the three major rating agencies, Moody's has the highest credit rating for Poland at "A2" [1] - Fitch and S&P have rated Poland at "A-", one level lower than Moody's [1] - In the recent fall rating adjustments, Fitch and Moody's changed Poland's rating outlook from stable to negative, while S&P maintained a stable outlook [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国11月非农新增就业超预期，但失业率意外升至四年高位，金价冲高 回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体 下跌，10年期美债收益率跌3.12个基点报4.143%；美元指数跌0.06%报98.22，离岸 人民币对美元小幅升值报7.0361；COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货971.42，现货966.39，基差-5.03，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向 ...