Core Viewpoint - US stock indices continued to rise, bolstered by economic data that strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, although the technology sector's weak performance limited the Nasdaq's gains [2][3] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 664.18 points, or 1.43%, closing at 47,112.45 points; the S&P 500 increased by 60.76 points, or 0.91%, to 6,765.88 points; the Nasdaq gained 153.59 points, or 0.67%, ending at 23,025.59 points [2] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Meta up 3.78%, Microsoft up 0.63%, Amazon up 1.50%, Apple up 0.38%, and Tesla up 0.39%, while Nvidia fell by 2.59% [2] - The retail sector performed strongly, with Kohl's surging 42.53% and Abercrombie & Fitch rising 37.54% due to raised full-year profit forecasts; Burlington Stores dropped 12.24% after third-quarter revenue missed expectations [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.35% to 7,753.25 points, with notable gains in Chinese stocks like Pony.ai up 5.9% and Xpeng up 3.2%, while Alibaba fell 2.3% and NIO dropped 4.3% [3] - Recent economic data reinforced expectations for a December rate cut, with the probability of a cut rising to 84.7% from 50.1% a week prior [3] - The ADP employment report indicated a faster decline in private sector jobs, averaging a loss of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks, compared to a loss of 2,500 jobs the previous week, highlighting a weakening labor market [3] Group 3: Consumer and Producer Price Index - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September rose by 0.3%, rebounding from a previous decline of 0.1%, aligning with economists' expectations [4] - The Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 in November, the lowest since April, significantly below the market expectation of 93.2 [4] Group 4: Future Federal Reserve Actions - Goldman Sachs' chief economist stated that there are virtually no obstacles to the Fed cutting rates on December 10, with expectations for two additional cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [5] - Market strategist noted that recent data and Fed officials' comments have shifted market sentiment towards a December rate cut due to significant weakness in the job market [5] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 4%, marking the lowest level since the end of October [5] Group 5: Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with light crude oil futures for January dropping by $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel, a decrease of 1.51% [6] - Spot gold prices slightly fell by 0.14% to $4,130.59 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 0.81% to $4,127.20 per ounce [6]

*科技股表现分化：英伟达走弱、Alphabet创新高 *零售企业财报亮眼推动板块整体上涨 美股主要股指周二继续走高，一系列经济数据强化了投资者对于美联储将在12月实施年内第三次降息的 预期。然而，科技板块表现疲弱，在一定程度上限制了纳斯达克指数的涨幅。 截至收盘，道指上涨664.18点，涨幅1.43%，报47112.45点；标普500指数上涨60.76点，涨0.91%，报 6765.88点；纳指上涨153.59点，涨0.67%，报23025.59点。 【热门股表现】 多项经济指标显示美国经济放缓迹象加深，推动市场押注美联储12月实施年内第三次降息的概率升至 84.7%。 热门大型科技股涨跌互现。Meta上涨3.78%，微软上涨0.63%，亚马逊上涨1.50%，苹果上涨0.38%，特 斯拉上涨0.39%；英伟达下跌2.59%。此前有市场消息称，Meta正考虑未来数年在数据中心使用Alphabet 的人工智能芯片，并计划在明年之前在谷歌云租用芯片，推动Alphabet股价上涨1.53%并再创历史新 高。 *降息预期推动美股三大指数全线收高 消费者层面，经济谘商会数据显示，11月消费者信心指数降至88.7，创4月以 ...

资金面与宏观叙事的完美共振推动9月黄金行情走出"陡峭斜率"。 首先，美联储货币政策转向的"确定性溢价"被市场充分定价。在杰克逊霍尔会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔 对通胀容忍度的提升以及鲜明的"鸽派"指引，直接引爆了市场对9月开启降息周期的押注。名义利率下 行叠加通胀预期的黏性，导致美债实际收益率快速下行，为作为零息资产的黄金提供了最底层的估值支 撑。 其次，地缘政治局势与美国财政僵局提供了高额"避险溢价"。9月底，美国联邦政府面临史上最长"停 摆"风险，叠加欧洲财政纪律争议及地缘冲突持续，全球避险资金疯狂涌入金市。黄金在这一阶段不仅 是抗通胀工具，更成了对冲尾部风险的"末日期权"。 最后，全球央行购金与ETF资金形成了坚实的"多头底座"。中国央行连续增持黄金，配合亚洲其他国家 央行的持续买入，强化了"去美元化"的长期逻辑。与此同时，全球黄金ETF在9月录得数十亿美元净流 入，表明私人和机构配置型资金加速进场，与官方资金共同构成了推动黄金价格上涨的"基石"。 然而，在技术指标极度超买、多头拥挤度达到历史峰值之际，任何边际预期的修正都足以引发"踩踏"。 10月中旬，伦敦现货黄金价格触及4381美元／盎司的历史新高，迅速 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.43%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.91%, and the Nasdaq only slightly rising by 0.67% due to Nvidia's stock decline [1] - Nvidia's stock experienced a significant drop of over 7%, leading to a market cap loss of nearly $350 billion, before closing down 2.6%, marking a two-month low [1] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, saw its stock rise by 1.6%, reaching a record closing high for the third consecutive trading day [1] Nvidia and Google Developments - The market turbulence was triggered by a report indicating that Meta is considering using Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) in its data centers by 2027 instead of Nvidia chips [1] - Google's newly released Gemini 3 model has received acclaim for its superior reasoning and coding capabilities compared to OpenAI's ChatGPT, and it is trained using TPUs rather than Nvidia chips [1] Impact on Technology Sector - Nvidia's decline negatively affected the entire tech sector, with key partners like Super Micro Computer (SMCI) dropping over 6%, and CoreWeave, a data center operator, falling by 10% [2] - Competitors such as AMD also faced declines, with a drop of nearly 9.7% during the day [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.3%, with stocks like Xpeng and Bilibili rising over 3%, while NIO dropped over 4% and Alibaba fell more than 2% [2] Economic Indicators and Fed Policy - The ADP employment report indicated a worsening labor market, with an average loss of 13,500 private sector jobs per week over the past four weeks, significantly worse than the previous week's report [5] - The lack of official data releases due to government shutdowns has made alternative data sources like ADP crucial for economic assessments, influencing the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions [5][6] - There is a growing expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with a probability of 84.9% according to CME FedWatch [7] Federal Reserve Leadership Transition - The search for the next Federal Reserve Chair is ongoing, with an announcement expected before Christmas, although it may be delayed until the New Year [8] - The current process includes discussions on simplifying the Fed's policy tools and addressing the complexities of its communication mechanisms [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][5]. Gold Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $4155.916 per ounce before retreating to around $4130 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures also showed an upward trend, increasing by 0.71% to $4123.2 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4133.5 [3][4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have risen to 80%, the highest since the October meeting, contributing to the strength of precious metals [5]. - The U.S. government's reopening and a decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance have injected liquidity into the market, leading to a decline in overnight financing rates [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to continue their upward momentum, potentially challenging the $4200 per ounce mark in the short term [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support gold prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][5]. Gold Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices peaked at $4155.916 per ounce before retreating to around $4130 per ounce, maintaining high volatility [1]. - COMEX gold futures also showed an upward trend, rising by 0.71% to $4123.2 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4133.5 [3]. Domestic Gold Consumption - Domestic gold consumption is on the rise, with major retailers in Shanghai reporting prices for gold jewelry at approximately 1315 CNY per gram, marking recent highs [5]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have surged to 80%, the highest since the October meeting, contributing to the strength of precious metals [5]. - The reopening of the U.S. government and a decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance have injected liquidity into the market, further supporting gold prices [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rebound in the short term, potentially challenging the $4200 per ounce mark [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support upward movement in gold prices [6].

格隆汇11月25日｜受今年美国进一步降息的预期重燃以及供应趋紧迹象的提振，铜价在午后交易中上 涨。伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜期货价格上涨约0.5%。美联储一些理事近期的鸽派言论，促使交易员 加大了对美联储12月降息的押注，而智利矿业当局上调今明两年铜价预测的决定，也提供了额外支持。 与此同时，加拿大皇家银行的分析师表示，"LME期货处于现货溢价状态，表明近期供应趋紧，而价格 预计将在较长期内放缓。" ...

（来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 来源：市场投研资讯 美国9月非农新增就业大超预期，失业率小幅抬升，小时工资环比增速放缓。美国9月非农就业人口新增 11.9万人，高于预期值5.1万人和前值-0.4万人。美国9月失业率为4.4%，高于预期值和前值4.3%。美国9 月平均每小时工资环比增长0.2%，低于预期值0.3%和前值0.4%。美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长 3.8%，高于预期值3.7%，与前值持平。 美国服务业延续扩张，制造业景气度略低于预期。美国11月标普服务业PMI录得55%，高于预期值 54.6%和前值54.8%；美国11月标普制造业PMI录得51.9%，略低于预期值52%和前值52.5%。 美国10月成屋销售超预期上行。美国10月成屋销售总数年化环比增长1.2%，高于预期值0.5%，略低于 前值1.3%；美国10月成屋销售总数年化为410万户，高于预期值408万户和前值405万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（11月17日-21日），标普油气指数整周下跌3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌3.07%，标普500指 数整周下跌1.95%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with limited data available for analysis, particularly regarding retail sales and employment figures, which may impact future market movements [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales month-on-month data is considered important, while the PCE data is unlikely to be released due to the October government shutdown [2]. - The employment data for November will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting, adding to the uncertainty [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - Predictions for the next three FOMC meetings indicate a 69.4% chance of maintaining the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% by December 11, 2025, with a decreasing likelihood of this rate in subsequent meetings [3]. - The fluctuating expectations for a rate cut in December have been between 30% and 60%, reflecting the market's uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with traders likely to be less active due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, which may limit market movements [3]. - The gold market is also experiencing a delicate balance, with multiple tests of support levels and a lack of strong downward momentum [4][7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The key support level for gold is identified around 4030-4025, with potential downward movement if this level is breached [7]. - The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate important resistance around 4115-4120, which may affect trading strategies [7]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - The final week of November is expected to be unstable, with traders advised to monitor key levels closely [5][7]. - A simulation trading competition is set to begin on December 1, with the last week for registration [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is gradually digesting the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the optimistic sentiment from the recent US-China summit, leading to a marginal weakening of the short-term upward momentum in risk assets [1]. Market Trends - US stock index futures collectively declined, while European stock indices mostly rose, and Asian stocks followed the overnight US market's upward trend. The US Treasury yields remained stable, and the dollar index fluctuated slightly above the 100 mark. Gold and silver prices increased, while oil prices fell, and cryptocurrencies experienced a pullback after an initial rise [1][5]. - The market focus is shifting towards the upcoming unemployment claims data to be released on Wednesday, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economic fundamentals and policy calibration [1]. Federal Reserve Signals - Several key Federal Reserve officials have recently reinforced dovish signals, supporting the expectation of a rate cut in December. The probability of a rate cut has exceeded 70% in the current market pricing, although this has shown significant volatility due to internal disagreements among policymakers and the lack of core economic data [2]. Asian Market Performance - Asian stock markets rebounded collectively, driven by optimism surrounding Google's new AI model and reports of the company's plans to develop its own AI chips, boosting investor confidence in the technology sector [3]. Key Market Data - S&P 500 futures fell by 0.13%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped over 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures decreased by 0.15%. European indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.2% and the German DAX flat. The Nikkei 225 index closed up by 0.1% [5]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.036%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.03% to 100.15. Spot gold rose by 0.02% to $4135 per ounce [5].