1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend with different products having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, trade policies, and weather conditions [1][6][7]. - Different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the future, such as some products are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to have upward potential [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**：走势分化，棕油情绪偏弱。美豆上涨但美豆油下跌，国内油脂走势分化，菜油反弹、豆油抗跌、棕油偏弱。宏观环境复杂，产业端美豆数据暂停更新，巴西大豆种植顺利，国内进口大豆到港量或处同期较高水平，马棕10月继续累库概率大，印尼棕油库存低位，印度植物油进口或季节性下降，国内菜油供应预期回升 [6]. - **展望**：棕油震荡偏弱，菜油震荡偏弱，豆油震荡。主要驱动因素包括马棕累库预期、印度植物油进口季节性下降、巴西豆种植顺利、国内菜油供应预期回升、进口大豆成本抬升 [6]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**：中加关系扰动，菜粕大幅上涨。国际上，美豆出口预期受提振，巴西豆旧作10月出口量下调，新作播种进度同比偏快，阿根廷豆播种开启；国内短期油厂开机率回落，库存回升，中期采购、天气和消费旺季决定上涨高度，长期预计2025年四季度和2026年一季度大豆供需无缺口，中加关系或缓和。中加关税预期变化引发资金做多菜粕 [7]. - **展望**：美豆震荡、连粕震荡。豆粕价格受成本等因素驱动上涨，榨利修复抑制盘面，期价回调风险加大。建议豆粕1 - 5反套持有，看涨买权止盈，看跌卖权持有 [7]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：港口支撑盘面上行。国内玉米价格涨跌不一，港口受期货上涨影响价格上调，近期东北玉米集中上市，运输运力瓶颈对价格有支撑，但后续现货价格仍存在压力 [9][10]. - **展望**：震荡。短期观望为主 [10]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**：猪源充裕，价格走弱。短期二育栏舍利用率增加但猪价反弹抑制二育情绪，集团场出栏节奏偏快；中期预计四季度生猪出栏量继续增加；长期能繁母猪产能开始去化，供应压力将在2026年下半年逐步减轻 [10][11]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱。近月端生猪处在高位产能兑现期，价格弱势运行；远月端受去产能预期支撑，关注反套策略机会 [11]. 3.1.5. 天然橡胶 - **观点**：反弹告一段落，等待新的指引。天胶先跌后涨，维持底部横盘震荡调整格局，RU仓单持续注销，新胶注册进度慢，估值低，11月进口压力或对NR上方形成压力，短期RU - NR价差或修复，近期涨跌受宏观影响大 [12][13]. - **展望**：胶价维持底部震荡高弹性走势，单边难有趋势性行情，短期关注做扩RU - NR价差 [13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**：原料持续走弱，盘面创上市新低。主要因原料丁二烯价格快速探底，市场供需矛盾激化，下游买盘谨慎，市场供应面持续承压，年底前两个月丁二烯供需依旧偏过剩 [15][16]. - **展望**：基本面与原料端压力均较大，在丁二烯出现明显供需矛盾之前，盘面建议逢高布空 [16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**：可预期利多多已消化，棉价短期继续上行动力减弱。宏观面贸易关系转好，盘面逻辑回归基本面，国内供给端新棉集中上市，需求端棉纺需求边际减弱，估值端对01合约有支撑但主力合约上行受限 [16][17]. - **展望**：短期01合约区间震荡；长期25/26年度中国棉花年度平衡表可能去库，带动棉价上行，震荡偏强 [17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**：糖价反弹，但高度有限。国际市场巴西双周产量高峰期已过，但北半球进入开榨高峰期，国际糖价下行压力不改；国内市场近期反弹因进口管控趋严，但基本面无其它利多，南方糖开榨后供应量增多，内盘也有下行压力 [17][18]. - **展望**：中长期震荡偏弱，操作上维持反弹空思路，糖价运行区间参考5400 - 5500元/吨 [18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**：下游涨价预期驱动盘面上涨，上涨空间仍需谨慎。期货上涨，现货成交好转，针叶价格普涨，但纸浆此前交易的利空未完全结束，下游需求利多带来的上涨空间预计不高，同时也存在一些利多因素 [19][20]. - **展望**：震荡。仓单及弱供需主导市场，但废纸浆变化或带来异动，纸浆期货偏向观望 [20]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸跟随纸浆走强。新增装置生产逐步趋稳，纸张供应过剩，需求端出版招标开始但社会面订单未见明显提振，部分工厂产销压力较大，纸企发布涨价计划但市场观望情绪浓厚 [21][22]. - **展望**：单边策略维持观望。关注新驱动对资金情绪的影响 [22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**：上下两难，底部震荡。市场对利空交易充分，信息面海运费用升水挤出，基本面转弱，港口到货集中，集成材销售成交下降，新西兰原木外盘报价有调整，后期到船蓝变材压力大，但原木估值不高，江苏市场库存相对偏低 [24]. - **展望**：原木基本面转弱，现货存下跌，信息面博弈反复，近期底部区间震荡 [25]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 The report only lists the categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - **综合 Index**：The commodity 20 index is 2546.82, up 0.02%; the industrial products index is 2237.50, up 0.09%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.44, up 0.15% [182]. - **板块指数 - 农产品指数**：On November 3, 2025, it was 927.07, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a decrease of 0.40% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 2.07% in the past month, and a decrease of 2.90% since the beginning of the year [183].

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Douyi [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Douyi [1] - **Not Rated**: Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as Sino-US and Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations, supply and demand, and cost [2][3][4][6] - Different agricultural products show different trends and investment opportunities, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments and market supply and demand changes [3][4][7] Summary by Category Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of Douyi is approaching the previous platform high and shows a high-level consolidation state. The purchase price of domestic soybeans is stable, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state [2] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal has risen, and the inventory has increased slightly. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the policy adjustment of China's soybean imports from the United States and look for opportunities to buy on dips [3] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean futures has rebounded, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased. The crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state. The price of soybean oil is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the supply of the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Palm Oil - The palm oil market in Malaysia still faces high inventory pressure, and the production in Indonesia is higher than expected. The export demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price of rapeseed meal has risen significantly, mainly due to market trading on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long - position thinking [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, and it benefits from the listing of imported rapeseed oil from Russia [6] Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn is running strongly, but the supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the import situation of corn, and the price may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of subsequent slaughter, it is expected that the price of live hogs may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong, and the far - month contract has hit a new high. The price of vegetables provides support for the price of eggs. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling in the fourth quarter [9]

Report Information - Report Title: [Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report] US Soybeans and US Soybean Meal Prices Rise, with External Market Performance Stronger than Domestic Market [1] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of US soybeans and US soybean meal increased, with the external market outperforming the domestic market. The price of CBOT soybeans was mainly influenced by the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The price of CBOT soybean meal was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and its low - level price advantage. The price of CBOT soybean oil declined due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation. The domestic soybean and soybean product markets were also affected by international market trends, as well as factors such as domestic supply and demand, inventory, and import and export conditions [9][13][20] Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean 11 - contract closed at 1100.00 cents per bushel, up 5.59% from the previous week, and the 01 - contract closed at 1115.00 cents per bushel, up 5.14%. The price increase was due to the expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the rise in CBOT soybean meal prices. The dry weather in the US soybean - producing areas was beneficial for harvesting, but the cumulative export inspection volume was still lower than the same period last year [9] 2. Soybean Meal - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean meal 12 - contract closed at 321.4 dollars per short - ton, up 9.36% from the previous week. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in US soybean exports and the low - level price advantage [13] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean meal 01 - contract closed at 3021 yuan per ton, up 3.00%. The price increase was driven by the rise in CBOT soybean prices, but was restricted by the decline in Brazilian soybean premium quotes and high domestic soybean meal inventories [16] 3. Soybean Oil - External market: As of October 31, the CBOT soybean oil 12 - contract closed at 48.62 cents per pound, down 3.32%. The price decline was due to the fall in international competing vegetable oil prices and the "strong meal, weak oil" situation [20] - Domestic market: As of October 31, the DCE soybean oil 01 - contract closed at 8128 yuan per ton, down 0.81%. The price decline was affected by the fall in domestic competing vegetable oil prices and high domestic soybean oil inventories [23] II. Production Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Rainfall was mainly concentrated in the southern region, with slightly lower rainfall in the central - western region than normal, and the overall temperature was lower than normal [24][25] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to mainly occur in the southern region, and the temperature in the central part of the production area will be higher than normal [27] 2. Argentine Soybean Production Area Weather - Past week (October 24 - 31): Local rainfall in the main production areas was higher than normal, and the temperature was lower than normal [31] - Next week (November 2 - 9): Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal, and the temperature will be slightly lower than normal [33] III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA drought monitoring report: As of the week of October 28, about 34% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 39% the previous week and 73% in the same period last year [38] - Export inspection: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline continued to widen. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons. As of the week of October 24, 2024, it was 2,630,651 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.91% [40] - D4 RINs price: As of October 31, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 100 cents, unchanged from October 24 [43] - Other important news: The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on issues such as tariff cancellation, export control suspension, and expansion of agricultural product trade through consultations in Kuala Lumpur [45] 2. Brazilian Soybeans - Soybean production forecast: Different institutions' forecasts for the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production range from 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion tons [47] - Soybean sowing: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the soybean planting rate was 34.4%. The sowing progress in some states such as Mato Grosso and Parana was also reported [47][48] - Export sales: Anec lowered the October export forecast to 7 million tons. As of the week of October 31, 2025, the cumulative export volume was 99.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.26% [50][52] - Soybean premium: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium declined [55] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 28.16 dollars per ton, down from 28.87 dollars per ton on October 24 [58] 3. Argentine Soybeans - Farmer sales: As of the week of October 22, 2025, the pre - sale of 2025/26 soybeans by Argentine farmers increased compared to the previous week [60] - Argentine soybean crushing profit: As of October 31, 2025, the crushing profit was 9.08 dollars per ton, down from 18.88 dollars per ton on October 24 [65] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - China's imported soybean procurement progress: The procurement progress data for the week of October 28, 2025, was provided [68] - Port and oil - mill soybean inventories: As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, a decrease of 153,000 tons from the previous week, and the oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons [70] - Imported soybean arrivals and crushing: In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume was about 2.145 million tons, and in the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the actual crushing volume was 2.2534 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.99% [72] - Soybean oil trading volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the weekly trading volume was 80,700 tons, an increase from the previous week [74] - Soybean oil production and apparent consumption: In the 44th week (October 25 - 31, 2025), the production was 416,900 tons, and in the 43rd week (October 18 - 24, 2025), the apparent consumption was 411,700 tons [76] - Soybean oil inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.2503 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons from the previous week [80] 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean meal production and apparent consumption: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the production was 1.7802 million tons, a decrease of 90,100 tons from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, 2025, the apparent consumption was 1.7918 million tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons from the previous week [82] - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory and feed - mill physical inventory days: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.02 days, an increase of 0.06 days from October 24 [85] - Soybean meal trading volume and pick - up volume: As of the week of October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 558,900 tons, an increase of 3.16% from the previous week, and the pick - up volume was 981,800 tons, a decrease of 2.06% from the previous week [88] - Downstream demand: The losses in pig - breeding and piglet - purchasing breeding profits continued to narrow. The live - pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio increased [91] - Soybean meal warehouse receipt quantity: As of October 31, 2025, the registered quantity of Dalian Commodity Exchange soybean meal warehouse receipts was 42,332 lots [93] V. Domestic and International Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Product Spread Situations - Soybean oil basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of first - grade soybean oil in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [97][98] - Soybean meal basis and calendar spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in different regions against the 01 contract and the 1 - 5 spread were presented [100][102] - Product spread: Data on the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the ratios of soybean oil to soybean meal and corn to soybean meal were presented [104][105] 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes and spreads of soybean oil, Brazilian soybean meal, US soybean meal, and Argentine soybean meal FOB were presented [108][110][112] 3. CFTC Positioning - The net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds were presented [114][115]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price and Ratio**: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - **ETF and CFC Holdings**: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - **Eurozone Data**: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 31, 2025, the A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.31%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index continued to adjust, and the prices of some commodities like iron ore and asphalt declined slightly [1][2][10]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of different industries are changing. For instance, the steel market is facing a shift from macro - driven sentiment to industry reality, and the alumina industry is in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand [11][12]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On October 31, the A - share market saw a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79 points (down 0.81%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 13378.21 points (down 1.14%), and the ChiNext Index at 3187.53 points (down 2.31%). The trading volume of the two markets was 2317.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4640.67, a decrease of 69.24 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal Futures - Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and a third - round increase may start. The steel mills in some areas have production - limiting plans, and the finished product prices have slightly increased. The supply of raw materials may face pressure as the peak season for steel is ending. The daily consumption of coke is 107.96 million tons (- 0.47), and the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71% (0.44) [5]. - Coking coal's supply increase is limited due to environmental protection and safety inspections, supporting its price. The spot prices of some coking coal varieties have changed, and the inventory of coking coal in different sectors also shows different trends [6]. Sugar Futures - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on October 31. The night - session of the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower due to long - position liquidation [7]. Rubber Futures - The Shanghai rubber futures had a slight decline in the night - session on October 31 due to technical factors. The 20 - number rubber futures had a larger decline due to an increase in inventory. The natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1425 tons, and the 20 - number rubber inventory increased by 2217 tons [7]. Soybean Meal Futures - Internationally, on October 31, the CBOT soybeans were strong, reaching a 15 - month high. After the China - US summit, the market expects China to increase its purchase of US agricultural products including soybeans. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.9%. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal still exists [8]. Live Pig Futures - On October 31, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11815 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. The secondary fattening activity has cooled down significantly, and the market supply has increased. The demand has a seasonal warming expectation, but the consumption recovery is limited. The "supply exceeds demand" situation in the live pig market remains unchanged [9]. Copper Futures - The Sino - US trade situation has eased, and the Fed cut interest rates slightly in October. However, the market risk appetite has weakened, and the copper price is suppressed. But overseas mine disruptions and low non - US inventories still support the copper price [9]. Cotton Futures - On the night of October 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13555 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 20 lots compared with the previous day, and the price of machine - picked cotton is concentrated at 6.15 - 6.45 yuan/kg [9]. Iron Ore Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.56% at 800 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the iron ore price is in a volatile trend due to the decline in the steel mill profitability rate and environmental protection control in Hebei [10]. Asphalt Futures - On October 31, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.58% at 3244 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released due to cooling and rainfall, and the asphalt price follows the cost - end crude oil and shows a volatile trend [10]. Log Futures - On October 31, the 2601 log contract opened at 785, with the lowest at 783, the highest at 796.5, and closed at 787.5, with a daily reduction of 844 lots. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is in a de - stocking pattern [11]. Steel Futures - After the China - US summit, the market sentiment driven by macro - expectations has cooled down, and the steel price is returning to the industrial reality. In early November, the steel demand may not continue to grow, and the steel price may show a volatile trend [11]. Alumina Futures - The supply of alumina is still relatively large, but the output may be forced to converge as the spot price approaches the cost line. The demand for alumina is stable as the domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is close to the industry upper limit and has a high operating rate [12]. Aluminum Futures - The supply of alumina is relatively large, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting plants have good profits. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the warming of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries [12].

美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔，尽管中美达成贸易临时协议，美方仍将继续调查中国是否遵守特朗普第一任期内达成的贸易协定。该调查基于《1974 年贸易 法》第 301 条款进行，可能为美国对中国商品征收新关税提供法律依据。 中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆回应称，希望双方落实两国元首达成的重要共识，在平等、尊重、互惠基础上通过对话协商推动中美关系稳定发展。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent dialogue between the US and China in Busan, where the US agreed to reduce tariffs on fentanyl-related products from 20% to 10% and suspend additional trade taxes on China, aiming to support US agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [1] - Despite the positive developments, US Trade Representative Tai announced that the Section 301 investigation into China will continue, raising doubts about the US's sincerity and creating further uncertainties for future trade cooperation [1][3] - The political motivations behind the Trump administration's actions are significant, as they view any trade agreement that does not reflect a strong stance as a failure, using the Section 301 investigation as a political tool to pressure China for more concessions [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government has responded pragmatically to the US's strategies, demonstrating its commitment to maintaining stable US-China economic relations while ensuring its own interests, such as by suspending rare earth export restrictions [3][5] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has indicated that the continuation of the Section 301 investigation could lead to new frictions and adjustments in tariffs, emphasizing the importance of US-China economic cooperation for countless businesses and families [5] - Strengthening communication and transparency in the implementation of agreements is essential to reduce misunderstandings and conflicts, while exploring broader cooperation areas like climate change and public health can help build a more solid foundation for collaboration [6]

Group 1 - Recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur show a more relaxed atmosphere, with US farmers expressing a desire for cooperation rather than confrontation [1] - US soybean prices have plummeted nearly 60% compared to two years ago, leading to over 200 farm bankruptcies this year, with some farmers expecting losses exceeding $400,000 [3] - The majority of US farmers, traditionally Republican supporters, are now openly questioning Trump's tariff policies, indicating a shift in sentiment due to the economic impact of the trade war [5] Group 2 - China has become a crucial market for US agricultural products, with Brazilian soybeans now accounting for over 70% of China's imports, leaving US farmers with dwindling market share [3] - Recent purchases of 180,000 tons of US soybeans by COFCO signal a potential shift in trade dynamics, possibly leading to larger-scale purchases if an agreement is reached [7] - The upcoming US-China meeting on October 30 is seen as a critical moment for addressing agricultural trade issues, with soybean purchases being a key topic [9]

Group 1 - The announcement from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce following the China-US summit indicates a significant shift in trade relations, with both sides agreeing to a "mutual pause" on tariffs and trade investigations [4][5][12] - The US has canceled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and suspended the 301 investigation into China's logistics, maritime, and shipbuilding industries for one year, while also pausing the previously imposed 24% equivalent tariffs [4][5] - In response, China has also suspended corresponding countermeasures, which stabilizes order flows for affected industries and potentially lowers logistics costs for consumers, benefiting the overall market [5][8] Group 2 - China has resumed purchasing US soybeans, having already bought approximately 180,000 tons in three batches, which is a strategic move to control costs amid rising prices from Brazilian imports [7][8] - The stability in soybean prices will directly impact consumer goods prices, including cooking oil and meat products, ultimately benefiting ordinary consumers [8][10] - The announcement also includes a "mutual pause" on export controls related to rare earth elements, with the US suspending the recently introduced 50% export penetration rule, which had aimed to restrict products with any US technology content from being exported to China [12][14] Group 3 - The mutual pauses in trade measures are seen as a strategic move rather than a concession, allowing both sides to maintain leverage while addressing market demands [10][16] - China plans to use the year of suspension to refine its export control rules and processes, ensuring that it can respond effectively if the US reintroduces restrictions [16][18] - The US's willingness to negotiate is driven by its own economic interests, as American farmers and tech companies have faced significant losses due to trade tensions, highlighting a shift from unilateral pressure to mutual constraints in US-China relations [20][23] Group 4 - The focus of the announcement is on protecting China's chip industry, emphasizing the importance of maintaining export rights for Chinese semiconductor companies rather than merely increasing imports [27][28] - The Chinese semiconductor industry has developed competitive capabilities, and any US export restrictions could adversely affect its international market presence, making the protection of these companies crucial for China's technological autonomy [28][30]

Core Points - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. is seen as a significant victory for China, with the U.S. forced to cancel planned tariffs and restrictions on Chinese goods, indicating a major shift in U.S.-China relations [1][8] - The agreement includes the suspension of tariffs and export controls, which reflects a mutual concession from both sides [3][7] - The outcome of the negotiations may lead to a reevaluation of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, focusing more on domestic issues rather than competition with China [10][8] Summary of Key Measures - The U.S. will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% equivalent tariffs for one year, while China will adjust its retaliatory tariffs accordingly [3] - The U.S. will pause the implementation of new export control rules for one year, and China will also suspend its related measures [3] - The U.S. will halt the 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, with corresponding suspensions from China [3] Implications for Global Trade - The agreement signifies a notable improvement in U.S.-China trade relations, which may lead to increased competition in European markets [1][11] - The failure of certain U.S. officials, particularly Commerce Secretary Ross, to maintain a hardline stance on China may result in their marginalization within the Trump administration [10] - European countries, particularly the Netherlands, face significant repercussions from the thawing U.S.-China relations, as their previous actions may have disrupted global supply chains [10][11]