Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the US soybeans is expected to be range - bound. The domestic soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. The palm oil market is volatile, and the sugar, cotton, egg, and pig markets each have their own supply - demand and price characteristics and trading outlooks [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The US soybeans fell in the night session last Friday. The US soybean oil rose, and recent US agricultural trade agreements boosted US soybeans. However, good weather in North America limited the upside. The domestic soybean meal spot prices increased slightly over the weekend. The oil mill's soybean meal transactions were okay, and downstream inventory days exceeded last year's level. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small upward fluctuations due to a single supply source [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports had different trends in June. In July, the palm oil yield increased, and the output increased. The overall commodity sentiment was positive last Friday, and foreign capital's positions in the three major oils continued to hit new highs. EPA policies are bullish, but there are still bearish factors in the palm oil market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil market is volatile. Although there is a possibility of price increases in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy, the upside is limited by factors such as high - level annual production increase expectations and weak edible demand in major demand countries [10]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different trends. In June 2025, China's sugar imports increased year - on - year, but from January to June, the imports decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in the best import profit window in the past five years. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the probability of the Zhengzhou sugar price continuing to decline is relatively high [13]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose first and then fell. The spot price of cotton increased. The开机 rates of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and China's cotton imports decreased significantly year - on - year [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential bearish factor [16]. Egg - **Market Situation**: Egg prices generally rose over the weekend, but the upward momentum was insufficient. High - temperature weather affected egg production, and large - sized eggs were in short supply. The peak - season demand started, and the turnover in each link accelerated [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contracts are volatile, and for the post - festival contracts after September, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [20]. Pig - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rose over the weekend. The previous continuous decline in pig prices led to strong price - holding sentiment among farmers, and the supply decreased. However, in some areas of East China, the supply increased, and the demand was insufficient [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the spot price may rise again in August, and the 09 contract can be considered for buying on dips. For off - season contracts such as 11, wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [23].

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent surge in agricultural futures prices, particularly soybean meal, driven by increased downstream demand [2] - On July 18, soybean meal futures opened at 3031 CNY/ton, peaking at 3059 CNY/ton, closing at 3056 CNY/ton, marking a 1.49% increase [2] - Soybean meal futures have been on an upward trend since early 2025, influenced by rising costs and macroeconomic improvements [2][3] Group 2: Import Costs - Rising import costs for soybeans, with U.S. soybean import cost at 4616 CNY, Brazilian soybeans at 3910 CNY, and Argentine soybeans at 3707 CNY as of July 18 [3] - The increase in soybean meal prices is linked to higher import costs, particularly due to improved U.S. soybean exports and strong Brazilian soybean prices [3][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. soybean crushing volume adjusted upward by 1.4 million tons to 69.13 million tons due to increased demand for biodiesel [4] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 totaled 49.37 million tons, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a notable shift in import sources [6] - Current soybean meal inventory levels are high, with oil mills facing storage issues, leading to slower downstream purchasing despite rising prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The soybean meal market is expected to remain supported by strong Brazilian pricing and uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China trade relations [8][9] - The potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China could positively impact soybean exports, providing a boost to the market [5][8] - The upcoming weather conditions in U.S. soybean-producing regions will be critical for determining future price trends [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is facing a situation of mixed long and short factors. The oil market is expected to have an upward trend in the fourth quarter but is currently subject to multiple constraints. The sugar market may continue to decline. The cotton market has potential downside risks. The egg market is in a bottom - building phase with limited short - term rebound space. The pig market has limited downside space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressure in the medium term [3][4][9][12][15][18][21] Summary by Category Soybean/Materials - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, US soybeans continued to rebound, driven by the rise in US soybean oil and favorable US agricultural trade agreements. However, good North American weather limited the upside. Domestic soybean meal futures followed the rise of US soybeans, with spot prices increasing by 40 yuan/ton. The soybean import cost remained stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations and new supply - side variables [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is fluctuating, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production data showed mixed trends. Indonesia is studying the possibility of increasing the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. China and Australia are close to reaching a rapeseed purchase agreement. On Thursday, domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the overall commodity sentiment was positive [6][7] - **Market Situation**: The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply have raised the annual operating center of oils. However, there are still negative factors as Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation and multiple constraints suggest a volatile outlook [9] Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The London ICE sugar contract had a certain amount of delivery. Domestic sugar spot prices were mostly stable, with some processing sugar mills lowering their prices [11] - **Trading Strategy**: China is in a good window for sugar imports, and there may be increased import pressure in the second half of the year. The current market situation is contrary to the theoretical price difference trend, and if the external market does not rebound significantly, the sugar price may continue to decline [12] Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. China's textile and clothing exports in June 2025 showed a slight year - on - year decline but a month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to June increased year - on - year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Egg - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, with stable supply, low inventory, and increased purchasing intention from downstream traders [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Due to limited capacity clearance, the seasonal rebound of egg prices has been delayed. The current spot price is in a bottom - building phase, but the short - term rebound space is limited. For the near - term contracts, time is not favorable for long positions, and for the far - term contracts, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18] Pig - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices generally fell on the previous day, with sufficient supply from farmers and insufficient market digestion [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot pig price has rebounded, indicating a seasonal reduction in supply. The second - fattening space still exists, which provides some support. In the short term, there may be room for long positions, but in the medium term, supply delay and hedging pressure need to be considered [21]

Core Insights - The volume of shipments departing from China has decreased by 24% year-on-year, while Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia have seen significant increases in shipping volumes, with growth rates of 57%, 22%, and 96% respectively [1] - The overall shipping volume from Asia to the United States has dropped by 9% in June, totaling 1,540,998 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) [1] - The decline in shipments from China is attributed to the high tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, leading to a sustained decrease in shipping volumes for two consecutive months [1] - In contrast, Japan's shipping volume has decreased by 14% [1] Product Category Analysis - Among the top 10 product categories, 7 have experienced a year-on-year decline in shipping volumes, including furniture (-12%), plastics (-5%), machinery (-15%), automotive-related products (-22%), and steel products (-12%) [1] - Conversely, rubber products (tires) have increased by 14%, while clothing and footwear have seen growth rates of 6% and 1% respectively [2] Trade Relations Impact - Following the reduction of additional tariffs between the U.S. and China on May 14, there has been a slight recovery in shipping volumes from China, although they have not yet reached the levels of the previous year [2] - Many industry experts believe that the shipping volumes from China have failed to maintain the momentum gained after the U.S.-China agreement [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices mostly rose, with the three major indices showing divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and fluctuated, briefly falling below 3,500 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose and then declined. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.22%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Sector performance varied, with the social services and automobile sectors leading the gains and the steel sector leading the losses. - Domestically, in terms of the economic fundamentals, GDP in Q2 increased by 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Imports and exports improved against the backdrop of easing Sino - US trade relations. - In terms of financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating that residents' and enterprises' willingness to invest and consume may have improved with the support of loose monetary policies. - For individual stocks, the profit situation of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts remains good. - Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in programs for social retail has weakened. However, financial data shows that the effects of loose monetary policies have emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. With the release of mid - year report performance forecasts and the approaching Politburo meeting at the end of July, the market is optimistic about the first - half earnings of listed companies, and bulls may pre - arrange. The stock index has long - term upward potential, but weak economic data in June will put short - term pressure on the market, and the market may fluctuate around the 3,500 mark. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while the medium - to - long - term strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF (2509), IH (2509), and IF (2507), IH (2507) contracts decreased, while the prices of IC (2509), IM (2509), IC (2507), and IM (2507) contracts increased. For example, the IF (2509) contract was at 3,971.0, down 10.4; the IM (2509) contract was at 6,298.0, up 23.2 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For instance, the IF - IH monthly contract spread was 1,264.4, down 5.0; the IM - IC monthly contract spread was 437.8, up 24.0 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 1,790.0 to - 27,854.00, while the net positions of the top 20 in IH decreased by 207.0 to - 14,671.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also changed [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 36.2, up 2.3 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices changed. The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,740.90, down 6.3; the CSI 1000 was at 6,462.06, up 19.2 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 146.1734 billion yuan, down 17.327 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 189.0406 billion yuan, up 5.016 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume was 201.657 billion yuan, up 10.454 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 60.49%, up 35.90 percentage points; the Shibor was 1.466%, down 0.069 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Foreign Trade**: In June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.3%. The trade surplus was 825.97 billion yuan. In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.7%. The trade surplus was 4,212.51 billion yuan [2]. - **Social Financing**: In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 12% more than the same period last year. The net cash injection in the first half of the year was 363.3 billion yuan [2]. - **GDP**: In the first half of the year, GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In Q1, GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and in Q2, it increased by 5.2% year - on - year. The Q2 GDP increased by 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [2][3]. - **Consumption and Industry**: In June, social consumer goods retail sales were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, social consumer goods retail sales were 2,454.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. From January to June, it increased by 6.4% year - on - year [3]. - **Investment**: In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2,486.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. After deducting the impact of price factors, it increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [3]. - **Real Estate**: From January to June, national real estate development investment was 466.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 458.51 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 442.41 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 502.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. The national real estate climate index was 93.60 [3][4]. - **Monetary Data**: At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in China-US trade, with a total trade value of 2.08 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, down 9.3% year-on-year, and a sharp drop of 20.8% in the second quarter [1] - China's exports to the US decreased by 9.9% to 1.55 trillion yuan, while imports fell by 7.7% to 530.35 billion yuan, largely attributed to the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The trade data reflects the pressures faced by companies reliant on China-US trade, with some experiencing a sudden drop in orders and needing to adjust supply chains due to rising costs from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Recent positive signals have emerged, with trade talks in Geneva and London showing progress, leading to a rebound in trade, as June's import and export values rose from under 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan [1] - The articles emphasize that dialogue and cooperation are essential for resolving trade disputes, as mutual benefits are the foundation of China-US economic relations [1][3][5] - The international context includes the US's stance on Russia and Ukraine, with implications for global trade dynamics, highlighting the interconnectedness of international relations [3][5] Group 3 - The articles stress the importance of multilateral cooperation and the rejection of unilateralism and protectionism, advocating for dialogue to resolve differences and achieve mutual benefits [7] - As the world's two largest economies, China and the US are urged to set an example for global cooperation and economic recovery [7]

Core Insights - A recent incident involving Chinese companies illegally transporting critical mineral antimony to the United States has raised significant concerns regarding national security and the complexities of Sino-U.S. trade relations [1] - Despite China's export ban on antimony to the U.S. implemented last December, substantial amounts of antimony are still entering the U.S. market through third countries like Thailand and Mexico, surpassing the total imports from China over the past three years [1][2] - Antimony is a crucial raw material for batteries, semiconductor chips, and flame retardants, highlighting its strategic importance [1] Industry Impact - From December last year to April this year, Thailand and Mexico exported a total of 3,834 tons of antimony oxide to the U.S., nearly equivalent to the total amount imported directly from China in the past three years [2] - Thailand and Mexico have rapidly become the top three export markets for Chinese antimony products, indicating a direct correlation with illegal transportation activities [2] - The Chinese government has intensified enforcement efforts to control illegal transportation, but high overseas prices and soaring demand continue to drive unofficial material flows, jeopardizing China's national interests and global mineral resource supply chain security [2]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Trends - The manufacturing sector in China is showing positive signs, with the June PMI at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating a recovery in both production and new orders [1] - The manufacturing demand for steel is expected to increase as more policies are implemented to stabilize and boost the economy, including the issuance of special bonds and urban renewal projects [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Global Economic Conditions - There is a widespread optimism regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of three rate cuts in the second half of the year, which could enhance global liquidity and improve steel export conditions for China [2] - The depreciation of the US dollar is significant, with the dollar index dropping below 96.50, raising concerns about the dollar's future and potentially leading to increased demand for steel in developing countries [3] Group 3: Trade Relations and Real Estate Market - The trade relationship between China and the US is expected to improve, reducing the intensity of the tariff war, which could positively impact China's steel market [4] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing housing sales, which will likely boost steel demand [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [12][13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a long - term downward bias [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is influenced by factors such as optimistic overseas biodiesel demand, good growth of US soybeans, and reduced marginal production pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June. It is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. - The protein meal market is a mix of long and short factors. US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [9]. - The corn market has local weakness in spot prices, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels. US corn is expected to continue its downward trend [10][11]. - The hog market has short - term positive sentiment due to macro - regulation, but there is supply pressure in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to inventory rhythm changes and supply - side adjustments [11]. - The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is currently in a state where supply has an incremental expectation but demand has a decreasing expectation, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline in the third quarter [13]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. - The cotton market has an expected increase in production in the new season, and the demand is in the off - season. The current commercial inventory is low, so the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines, and the upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - The sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the new season, with a downward driving force for sugar prices in the long term and an oscillating trend in the short term [16]. - The pulp market has a weak supply - demand situation, but the absolute valuation is not high. It is expected that the pulp futures will oscillate [17]. - The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The medium - term market is expected to operate in the range of 760 - 830 [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - producing areas, US soybeans fell on Tuesday, while US soybean oil oscillated slightly upward. Domestic oils showed oscillating differentiation, with palm oil being strong and rapeseed oil and soybean oil being weak. The market is concerned about US foreign trade negotiations and the EIA's downward adjustment of the US crude oil production forecast for 2025. US soybeans are growing well, and the demand for US soybean oil in US biodiesel is expected to increase. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio. The import volume of domestic soybeans is large, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia in June is limited, and the export is expected to be good. The inventory of domestic rapeseed oil is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue oscillating and differentiating in the near future, with palm oil remaining relatively strong [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period. US soybeans are growing well, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. The supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The demand for downstream replenishment is insufficient, but the long - term consumption of soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips. One can buy and hold at around 2900 [9]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Logic**: Futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the bearish sentiment has been released. The number of waiting vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the procurement price of terminal grain - using enterprises has been lowered. The import of corn by auction has a certain turnover rate, and the supply of wheat and imported corn is increasing. US corn is in good condition, but speculative funds are selling [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of corn and the substitution of wheat [10][11]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - regulation has brought positive sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter has been partially released. In the medium and long term, the supply is still under pressure due to sufficient sows and increasing piglet births. The price of fat pigs has decreased, and the inventory situation is divided [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The natural rubber market is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply in Asian producing areas is affected by the rainy season, and the arrival of ships in July and August is expected to be less. The demand of some tire enterprises has recovered, but the long - term demand is expected to be weak. There may be inventory - reduction trading in the third quarter, and it is less likely to experience a sharp decline [13]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide guidance, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures rose rapidly due to a refinery fire, but the refinery does not produce BR delivery products. The butadiene price has been falling, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although there is some support for the market, the overall performance is weak [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: There is an expected increase in cotton production in China and other major producing countries in the new season. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory of textile products is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton is at a low level, and the old - crop contracts are expected to be resistant to declines. The upward space of the market is restricted in the medium term [15]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The supply of the sugar market is expected to be loose in the new season. The production of Brazilian sugar may not meet expectations, and the monsoon in India is conducive to sugarcane growth. The domestic sugar market is in the pure - sales period, with a high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. The import of sugar is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will gradually appear [16]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures have rebounded slightly, but the spot market is weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, with high European port inventories, low monthly US - dollar prices, and weak downstream paper product sales. However, the absolute valuation of pulp is not high, and there is a risk in short - selling [17]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Logic**: The log market has short - term pressure on the circulation of delivery products, and the cost of both sellers and buyers in the delivery process has increased. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation has increased, and the supply reduction expectation in July and August is weakened [18][19]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term and oscillate in the range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists various varieties for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [21][40][53]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for different trends, including "strong", "oscillating with a slight upward bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a slight downward bias", and "weak", with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170].

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