Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting a temporary truce where both countries have agreed to pause certain tariffs and export controls for one year, allowing time for further discussions and cooperation [2][10]. Summary by Sections Tariffs - The U.S. has canceled a portion of the "Fentanyl tariff" (10%) on Chinese goods, while the more significant 24% tariff remains in place for now, with no new tariffs introduced for one year [2]. - In response, China has also suspended some retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. [3]. Export Controls - The U.S. has decided to delay the implementation of a new strict technology export regulation (50% penetration rule) for one year [4]. - China has reciprocated by pausing its own retaliatory technology export restrictions for the same duration [5]. Industry Investigations - The U.S. has suspended investigations into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [6]. - China has also agreed to halt corresponding retaliatory measures for the same period [7]. Other Cooperation - Both countries have agreed to enhance cooperation in areas such as drug control (specifically regarding fentanyl) and agricultural trade [8]. - The U.S. has committed to providing better conditions for investments [9]. - China has promised to address issues related to TikTok in the U.S. [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply - side pressure is small as the import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal futures continued to fluctuate and close higher, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. Affected by the decline of palm oil, the rapeseed oil price has been in a weak adjustment recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9529 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2401 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 640.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 3.4 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5270 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 319 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 66 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 226014 lots (down 7051 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 350537 lots (down 1311 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 4403 lots (up 921 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 101718 lots (up 11227 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7540 pieces (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 3915 pieces (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9917.5 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7891.02 yuan/ton (up 28.82 yuan). The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 275 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 79 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8390 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1460 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 490 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 11.53 million tons (down 13.13 million tons), the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons (up 2 million tons), and the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons (down 5.57 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 589 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 2.93% (down 0.27%) [2]. - Inventories: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 2 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventories: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 4.2 million tons (down 1 million tons), the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 million tons (down 0.07 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 49.4 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 26.75 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 2.7 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.3 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.35 million tons (down 1.28 million tons), and the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.22 million tons (down 0.75 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 3128.7 million tons (up 201.5 million tons), and the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan (up 12.9 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.81% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.67% (down 0.97%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.56% (up 2.26%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.55% (up 2.26%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.44% (up 2.21%), the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.56% (up 0.55%), the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.21% (down 0.37%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.69% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 29 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures rose, and trading volume jumped, supported by the hope that the oversupply of North American vegetable oil supply would start to improve. The January rapeseed contract closed up 2.50 Canadian dollars at 641.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - A survey showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 84%. As the US soybean harvest advanced, the supply - side pressure continued to constrain its market price. After the China - US presidential meeting on October 30, the specific trade agreement was still unclear, and the market's concern about the US soybean demand prospects resurfaced, and the US soybean futures price also significantly declined from its high [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed开机率 and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, the development of China - Canada and China - US trade relations, and the initial ruling of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure, with concerns about production growth and export slowdown. There is a risk of further decline in prices, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are oscillating, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize at the annual line of 8800 yuan. [1] - Soybean oil: Optimistic expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement may support soybean prices and drive up soybean oil prices from the cost side. In China, there is pressure on soybean meal supply in Guangxi, leading to an increase in the basis price of soybean oil. However, overall demand is weak, and the basis price is expected to remain stable. [1] Livestock (Pigs) - The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has slowed down, and the market supply is relatively loose. In the short term, there may still be support from secondary fattening, and the price decline is limited. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter will continue to increase in November and December, and there may be a new round of pressure around the Winter Solstice. It is advisable to wait for the spot price to stabilize before considering reverse arbitrage. [3] Meal Products - The improvement in Sino - US trade relations strongly supports US soybeans, but after the price rebounds above 1100 cents, there is profit - taking. Brazilian soybean exports remain high, and the discount provides support for domestic soybean import costs. Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, cost - side support is strengthening, and the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong. [6] Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, corn prices are generally stable due to factors such as temperature and policy support. In the North China region, farmers' selling enthusiasm changes with price fluctuations, and prices have partially rebounded. Overall, there is still selling pressure due to a bumper harvest, and prices are limited in their rebound. On the demand side, procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The corn futures market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in the short term. [8] Sugar - Brazil's gasoline price cut fails to lower the sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak. With the arrival of the Northern Hemisphere's sugar - pressing season, the market is focusing on production prospects in India and Thailand. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum as it approaches the production cost, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating pattern. [13] Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flow have improved, and there is a rigid demand for cotton. The rising cost of new cotton provides strong support, but there is also hedging pressure when the price rises. With the approaching end of seed cotton procurement, the marginal driving force is decreasing. Therefore, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [14] Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens, improved egg - laying rates, and increased egg weights. The demand may first increase and then decrease this week as traders replenish and then digest their inventories. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline slightly in the second half of the week. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 3200 for the main contract. [16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 29, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, down 100 yuan (-1.18%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8132 yuan, down 50 yuan (-0.61%); the basis was 218 yuan, down 50 yuan (-18.66%); the number of warehouse receipts increased by 500 to 27644, a 1.84% increase. [1] - **Palm Oil**: On October 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8750 yuan, down 150 yuan (-1.69%); the futures price of P2601 was 8842 yuan, down 116 yuan (-1.29%); the basis was - 92 yuan, down 34 yuan (-58.62%); the import cost was 9273.7 yuan, down 163 yuan (-1.73%); the import profit was - 432 yuan, up 47 yuan (9.83%); the number of warehouse receipts decreased to 0 from 512. [1] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 172 yuan, down 8 yuan (-4.44%); the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was - 48 yuan, down 26 yuan (-118.18%); the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 340 yuan, down 38 yuan (-9.82%); the soybean - palm oil spot price spread was - 400 yuan, up 50 yuan (11.11%); the soybean - palm oil 2601 price spread was - 930 yuan, up 48 yuan (4.91%); the rapeseed - soybean oil spot price spread was 1450 yuan, down 100 yuan (-6.45%); the rapeseed - soybean oil 2601 price spread was 1393 yuan, down 155 yuan (-10.01%). [1] Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 365 yuan, up 75 yuan (25.86%); the price of LH2605 was 12010 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (-0.41%); the price of LH2601 was 12185 yuan, up 25 yuan (0.21%); the 1 - 5 spread was 175 yuan, up 75 yuan (75.00%); the position of the main contract was 119788, up 2540 (2.17%); the number of warehouse receipts was 206, unchanged. [3] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices in various regions increased, with increases ranging from 100 to 800 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1215 to 162661 (-0.74%); the weekly white - striped pork price was 18.47 yuan, down 0.03 yuan (-0.16%); the weekly piglet price was 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price was 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight was 127.9 kg, down 0.3 kg (-0.27%); the weekly self - breeding profit was - 186 yuan/head, up 59 yuan (24.12%); the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 289 yuan/head, up 86.2 yuan (22.97%); the monthly inventory of reproductive sows was 40380000 heads, down 40000 (-0.10%). [3] Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2969 yuan, down 6 yuan (-0.20%); the basis was 1 yuan, up 6 yuan (120.00%); the basis price was m2601 - 30, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Argentine December shipments was - 49 yuan, unchanged; the import crushing profit for Brazilian December shipments was - 240 yuan, down 33 yuan (-15.9%); the number of warehouse receipts was 42332, down 50 (-0.1%). [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2450 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2373 yuan, down 23 yuan (-0.96%); the basis was 77 yuan, up 33 yuan (75.00%); the import crushing profit for Canadian January shipments was 583 yuan, down 148 yuan (-20.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 3915, down 135 (-3.33%). [6] - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4113 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.05%); the basis was - 213 yuan, up 2 yuan (0.93%); the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract was 3671 yuan, down 12 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 269 yuan, up 12 yuan (4.67%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7190, up 100 (1.41%). [6] - **Price Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 166 yuan, down 14 yuan (-7.78%); the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) was 43 yuan, down 15 yuan (-25.86%); the oil - meal ratio in the spot market was 2.81, down 0.034 (-1.18%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract was 2.74, down 0.011 (-0.41%); the spot soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 520 yuan, down 10 yuan (-1.89%); the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal price spread was 596 yuan, up 17 yuan (2.94%). [6] Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2116 yuan, down 7 yuan (-0.33%); the basis was 17 yuan, down 13 yuan (-76.47%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 105 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.87%); the price of bulk grain at Shekou was 2280 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.88%); the north - south trade profit was 40 yuan, up 11 yuan (137.93%); the CIF price was 1974 yuan, down 4 yuan (-0.19%); the import profit was 306 yuan, up 24 yuan (8.38%); the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 552, down 192 (-25.81%); the position was 1774664, up 10545 (0.60%); the number of warehouse receipts was 63966, up 2000 (3.23%). [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2427 yuan, up 3 yuan (0.12%); the spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2750 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 83 yuan, down 3 yuan (-3.49%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 113 yuan, up 4 yuan (3.42%); the 01 contract spread between starch and corn was 311 yuan, up 10 yuan (3.32%); the profit of Shandong starch was 120 yuan, down 8 yuan (-6.25%); the trading volume was 280362, down 3102 (-1.09%); the number of warehouse receipts was 12504, unchanged. [8] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5494 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of SR2605 was 5430 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.22%); the price of ICE raw sugar was 14.43 cents/pound, up 0.04 cents (0.28%); the 1 - 5 spread was 64 yuan, down 1 yuan (-1.54%); the position of the main contract was 391035, down 9001 (-2.25%); the number of warehouse receipts was 7625, down 70 (-0.91%); the number of valid forecasts was 586, unchanged. [13] - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 320 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.61%); the Kunming basis was 290 yuan, down 12 yuan (-3.97%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3990 yuan, down 25 yuan (-0.62%); the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5052 yuan, down 33 yuan (-0.65%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning was - 1760 yuan, down 25 yuan (-1.44%); the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning was - 698 yuan, down 33 yuan (-4.96%). [13] - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons (12.03%); the cumulative national sugar sales were 1048 million tons, up 88 million tons (9.17%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.5 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%); the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons (-41.20%); the cumulative national sugar sales rate was 93.9%, down 2.51 percentage points (-2.60%); the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 93.9%, up 4.3 percentage points (4.80%); the national industrial sugar inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons (-41.20%); the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi was 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons (62.90%); the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan was 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons (26.60%); sugar imports were 55 million tons, up 15 million tons (37.50%). [13] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13625 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of CF2601 was 13620 yuan, up 55 yuan (0.41%); the price of ICE US cotton was 65.95 cents/pound, up 0.9 cents (1.38%); the 5 - 1 spread was 5 yuan, unchanged; the position of the main contract was 578488, down 596 (-0.10%); the number of warehouse receipts was 2460, down 11 (-0.45%); the number of valid forecasts was 1076, up 194 (22.00%). [14] - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14650 yuan, down 1 yuan (-0.01%); the CC Index 3128B was 14840 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.07%); the FC Index M 1% was 13209 yuan, up 93 yuan (0.71%); the spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1025 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.18%); the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1030 yuan, down 56 yuan (-5.16%); the spread between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% was 1631 yuan, down 83 yuan (-4.84%). [14] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 69.85 million tons (68.4%); industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 3.62 million tons (-4.3%); imports were 10 million tons, up 3 million tons (42.9%); bonded area inventory was 28.8 million tons, down 0.1 million tons (-0.3%); the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry was 0.3, down 0.1 (-25.0%); the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, up 0.39 days (1.6%); the grey fabric inventory days were 31.43 days, up 0.31 days (1.0%); the cotton outbound shipping volume was

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.10% respectively [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with mid-to-short term bonds performing well. The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" increased by 1.05 basis points to 1.8910%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" saw a slight rise of 0.10 basis points to 1.8140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 557.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 29, with a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market liquidity has turned loose, with the weighted average rate for repos falling, particularly the overnight repo rate dropping over 6 basis points to 1.40% [2] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with short-term bonds supported by expectations of renewed central bank bond purchases, while long-term bonds are pressured by U.S.-China trade relations and rising risk appetite [3] - There is potential for short-term fluctuations in the bond market, but a recovery in market sentiment may present trading opportunities if there are event shocks leading to market adjustments [3]

Group 1 - As of the end of September, the net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.74 trillion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of nearly 500 billion yuan, a new historical high [1] - The scale of equity funds increased by over 400 billion yuan compared to the end of August [1] - Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans maintained their holdings in broad-based ETFs, providing continued support to the stock market, with ETF holdings growing by over 200 billion yuan in the third quarter, reaching approximately 1.55 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is attracting foreign investment due to technological development, improved China-US trade relations, and loose monetary policies [1] - Foreign investors are seeking diversified investments and assets decoupled from the US market, with Morgan Stanley reporting an increase in foreign purchases of Chinese stocks [1] - Demand for Chinese funds has significantly increased, with investment firms receiving about 30 inquiries from clients seeking opportunities in China, contrasting sharply with the low demand seen in 2023 [2]

在最近的国际贸易舞台上，大豆这一看似不起眼的作物，却以其独特的"温度计"角色，反映出中美两国之间日益复杂的经济关系。10月28日报道，中 国中粮集团宣布购买了约18万吨美国大豆，尽管这一数字并不算庞大，但它背后所传递的信号却十分重要。这一采购发生在即将举行的中美领导人峰 会前夕，市场反应热烈，芝加哥大豆期货价格瞬间飙升至15个月来的高点。这种现象不仅显示了大豆作为全球贸易一部分的重要性，也揭示了中美之 间深厚的经济联系及其潜在的发展方向。 在这场博弈中，中方的策略极具深意。通过适时的采购，展示出中国愿意进行建设性对话的态度，并希望以此换取更多的利益。在特朗普急需政治成 果以稳固其基础的情况下，大豆成为了一种有效的谈判工具。在10月29日，特朗普公开表示预计会下调关税，并提到与中国在芬太尼问题上的合作， 这一言论的背后，显然映射出当前中美贸易谈判的复杂局面。 大豆作为一种战略性商品，其背后隐藏着更为复杂的政治经济关系。中美建交46年来，双边贸易额从1979年的不足25亿美元，迅速增长至2024年的近 6883亿美元，证明了两国经济的高度互补性。然而，经济互补性并不意味着双方没有矛盾，实际上，贸易摩擦的存在就是这 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Driven by optimistic trade sentiment, the two meals have rebounded synchronously recently, and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate strongly. The trade policies between China and Canada and between China and the US should be monitored [2]. - International trade relations are expected to improve, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline again. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The trade policy direction between China and Canada should be continuously monitored [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and domestic rapeseed decreased, while ICE rapeseed futures increased. Most of the month - to - month spreads, positions, and net long positions decreased, and the number of rapeseed oil warrants remained unchanged while that of rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices of rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed meal increased. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased, and the import cost of rapeseed increased. The oil - meal ratio decreased, and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase, and China's rapeseed imports decreased. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased, and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed decreased. The import cost of rapeseed increased, and the import rapeseed crushing profit increased [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and eastern regions decreased. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed meal decreased and increased respectively. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose due to continued optimism about China - US trade negotiations in the Chicago soybean market. The US soybean harvest rate reached 84%, and the supply - side pressure continued to restrain its market price. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and President Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump in Busan, South Korea [2]. Rapeseed Meal Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The trade optimism supports the sharp rise of the US soybean market price, and domestic rapeseed meal continues to fluctuate strongly [2]. Rapeseed Oil Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is over, and the supply - side pressure is high. The GAPKI expects an increase in Indonesian palm oil production, and the B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed has been implemented, and domestic rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, but the demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Key Focus - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions on Myagric website on Monday, as well as the trade relations between China and Canada and between China and the US [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive trend prediction**: Soybean No. 1, soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are rated with three stars, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - **Negative trend prediction**: Rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs are rated with one star, suggesting a bias towards short - term trends but poor operability on the trading floor [1]. Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, supply and demand, and policies. Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of soybean No. 1 futures rebounded rapidly from the low today, covering the decline of the previous two days and accompanied by an increase in positions. The domestic soybean auction had a premium, with an average transaction price of 3,925 yuan/ton and a premium of 0 - 140 yuan/ton. The transaction rate was 34.49%. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the imported soybean trade and the policy guidance of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Affected by the easing of Sino - US negotiations, US soybeans rose continuously this week, and the 2601 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange decreased its positions by more than 70,000 lots and rose 1.40% today. The current domestic soybean arrivals are sufficient, the soybean crushing volume is stable, the soybean meal pick - up has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has decreased slightly on a weekly basis. Attention should be paid to the APEC summit at the end of the month. Amid many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, continue to wait and see and look for long - position opportunities after the Sino - US trade issue is resolved [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contract of US soybeans continued to rise. Although the Brazilian soybean CIF premium fell and the RMB continued to appreciate, the domestic imported soybean cost still increased. The futures market showed a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and the soybean crushing profit was still in the red. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - to - meal ratio correction. In the long run, palm oil is expected to be resilient, and it is recommended to allocate vegetable oils on dips. In the short term, be cautious about the price correction of palm oil due to the pressure in the Malaysian market [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose significantly, and the rapeseed sector was stronger than its competitors, which was related to market concerns about Sino - Australian relations. The export of Australian rapeseed to China is not yet stable. The Russian rapeseed has been listed for crushing, and its export trade to China is not optimistic. The rapeseed oil price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, while the rapeseed meal price has short - term rebound momentum [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures rose 0.28% today. The supply of new corn in the Northeast continues, and the price has risen slightly. The new corn in Jilin may be listed in large quantities again soon, which will suppress the market price. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. With the possible easing of Sino - US relations, the corn import situation should be continuously monitored. The Dalian corn is expected to continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures weakened significantly today, showing a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The spot price continued to rise, with the national average slaughter price reaching 12.5 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan. The futures increased positions and declined, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Although the supply pressure is still large, the large price difference between fattening pigs may promote second - round fattening and hog retention, and the pork consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to the continuous supply pressure, a short - position strategy is recommended after the price rebounds. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and a second bottom may occur in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures failed to continue the previous upward trend, opening lower this morning and oscillating downward throughout the day without filling the gap. The near - month contract led the decline today, and the positions decreased by 10,000 lots. The spot price in Hebei started to fall, with a large decline in the price of small eggs. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. The unsold cold - storage eggs are also a potential pressure on the spot market. A short - position strategy is recommended at high prices [9].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a US-China trade agreement by October 30 appears low, despite recent developments indicating a shift in trade relations that could benefit global trade terms and export-dependent economies [1][3]. Economic Backdrop: China's Domestic Challenges - Recent trade data shows a rebound in external demand for China, with exports increasing by 8.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.4% in August, and industrial profits rising by 21.6% year-on-year, compared to 20.4% in August [4]. - However, overcapacity and excess supply in sectors like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels are causing deflationary pressures, leading to price cuts and market flooding [5]. Trade Deal Implications - A potential US-China trade deal that includes lower or zero tariffs on Chinese goods could help rebalance trade dynamics, with strong US demand being crucial for improving profit margins and domestic consumption in China [6]. - The ambition of the Chinese government to maintain export dominance while transitioning to a consumption-led economy is referred to as "dual circulation" [6]. Policy Signals: Stimulus Push - Calls for a significant infrastructure investment push have been made to revive domestic demand, with suggestions that infrastructure projects could raise household incomes and shift growth focus from exports to internal demand [9]. Market Reactions - Mainland equity markets experienced selling pressure ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices declining slightly, although optimism regarding a potential trade deal remains [10]. - A successful trade deal could propel the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices towards their previous all-time highs, set in 2021 and 2015 respectively [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, 2025, the A - share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, and the trading volume of the two markets increased significantly. Different futures varieties had different price trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 27, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.18% to 3996.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.51% to 13489.40 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98% to 3234.45 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2340.1 billion yuan, an increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index also showed strength, closing at 4716.02, a ring - up of 55.34 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On October 27, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1803.5, a ring - up of 14.2. Coke enterprises had difficulty replenishing stocks, intermediate - link purchases increased, and steel mills had a strong rigid demand for coke. Coal mine inventories decreased to the lowest point of the year, and coke inventories in coke enterprises and ports also decreased [3][5]. - Coking Coal: On October 27, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1276.4 yuan, a ring - up of 11.9. The domestic coking coal market was in a pattern of tight supply, supported demand, rising prices, and low inventory. Coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had production cuts, and Mongolian coal prices rose due to reduced port clearance [4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday and the reduction of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly lower on Monday. At night, it fluctuated slightly higher supported by bargain - hunting buying. Sugar - making enterprises in Yunnan and Guangxi were preparing to start the new crushing season [5]. Rubber - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Monday. In September 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production increased year - on - year, and the synthetic rubber production also increased significantly [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 27, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated strongly. The market expected a downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and Brazilian soybean sowing progress exceeded expectations. Domestically, on October 27, the M2601 main contract closed at 2932 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%. The supply pressure was obvious, and the inventory was at a high level [6][7]. Live Pigs - On October 27, the live pig futures price fluctuated strongly, with the LH2601 main contract closing at 12330 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.27%. The widening of the standard - fat price difference attracted secondary fattening, and the government's reserve meat purchase plan and positive statements supported the market. However, the oversupply situation in October remained unchanged, and the room for continuous price increase was limited [8]. Palm Oil - On October 27, palm oil continued to fluctuate slightly at the lower edge of the range. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased, and the export volume also increased significantly compared with the same period last month [9]. Shanghai Copper - The macro - environment was favorable, the supply was tight, and the technical form was good, so Shanghai copper was expected to continue its strong operation. However, high prices might suppress demand, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [10]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13580 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the Xinjiang cotton picking progress had completed 70% [10]. Iron Ore - On October 27, the 2601 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and rose, with a rise of 1.94% and a closing price of 786.5 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume rebounded, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The iron water output continued to decline, and the short - term price was in a fluctuating trend [10]. Asphalt - On October 27, the 2601 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.03% and a closing price of 3295 yuan. The production pressure in November decreased, the inventory was reduced, and the short - term price was in a fluctuating state [11][12]. Logs - On October 27, the log futures price plummeted by 5%. The market expected an improvement in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the shipping price declined. The spot price was stable, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively balanced [12]. Steel - On October 27, the rb2601 closed at 3100 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 closed at 3299 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation was good, but the traditional peak season was coming to an end, and the demand was difficult to increase. The short - term steel price was expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. Alumina - On October 27, the ao2601 closed at 2829 yuan/ton. The supply in November was expected to be sufficient, and the price might decline slightly, but the decline space was limited [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On October 27, the al2512 closed at 21360 yuan/ton. The Sino - US trade negotiation released positive signals, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation supported the non - ferrous market. The demand showed a cooling trend, and the downstream mainly met the rigid demand [14].