Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated December 2, 2025, covering various futures markets including coking coal, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, methanol, and pulp [1][2] Coking Coal Futures - **Investment Rating**: Bullish - **Core View**: The core logic for going long on coking coal futures revolves around supply - demand tight balance, policy support, and industrial chain linkage [3] - **Key Points** - **Supply - side Contraction**: At the end of the year, coal mines are affected by safety production assessment inspections and are close to their annual production targets, leading to active production cuts. Although Mongolian coal has high short - term customs clearance volume, its inventory is low, and winter low temperatures will drag down the clearance volume. With the normalization of environmental protection inspections, supply increment is limited, and the whole - chain inventory continues to decline, supporting price increases [3] - **Robust Demand**: Coking coal is the core raw material for coking. After the price increase of coke is implemented, coke enterprises are operating at a high level, and steel mills' pig iron production has increased year - on - year, resulting in strong rigid demand for coking coal. The winter stockpiling and replenishment of steel mills will start, and the procurement demand will be released intensively, further pushing up the price [3] - **Policy and Industrial Chain Linkage**: Under the "anti - involution" policy in the second half of the year, the industry self - regulates production, and the energy bureau checks over - production, leading to the fermentation of supply contraction expectations. Coking coal has a high correlation with futures such as rebar, and the recovery of steel prices drives the linked rise of coking coal futures. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices under low inventory, which also helps the futures market to follow the rise [4] Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: On December 1st (Monday), the Shanghai Composite Index had a good start, and the trading volume, which had been shrinking, increased significantly. Technically, the current upward cycle is not over, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fill the previous gap. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Gold Futures - **Core View**: Gold is currently in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase the rise or kill the fall [9] Iron Ore Futures - **Core View**: The market is looking for a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [11] Glass Futures - **Core View**: The daily melting volume has declined, and inventory reduction started this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus policies and the "anti - involution" policy for supply - side clearance. Technically, the market has fallen today and should be regarded as a short - term oscillation [15][16] Methanol Futures - **Core View**: The price has risen by more than 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal sample port inventories, supply disruptions caused by the centralized gas - limited shutdown of Iranian plants (a major international exporter), and the linkage effect formed by active port trading sentiment. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [18] Pulp Futures - **Core View**: As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.172 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.05%. The inventory has changed little in this cycle, showing a trend of slight inventory reduction. Changshu Port has seen inventory accumulation. The futures market has shown an oscillatory trend recently [22]

Core Insights - The corn market has shown a strong linkage between futures and spot prices, with new corn prices rising by 6% to 8% year-on-year due to structural supply tightness, boosting market confidence [1] - The planting area for corn in China is expected to increase steadily, reaching 44.87 million hectares by 2025, with total production estimated at approximately 29.616 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.24 million tons [1] - The consumption of corn for feed accounts for 65% to 70% of total demand, with a 2% year-on-year increase in the national pig stock and a 6% increase in compound feed production over the past 10 months [3][4] - The deep processing capacity for corn has exceeded 125 million tons, supporting industrial consumption, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in deep processing corn consumption from January to October [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new corn harvest has seen smooth inventory digestion, with major processing enterprises' corn stocks down about 20% year-on-year, and stocks at northern ports down 78% year-on-year, leading to rising prices [1] - The winter season is expected to bring increased snowfall, which may hinder corn transportation from Northeast China, leading to higher transportation costs and potentially higher corn prices [4] - Domestic corn imports are expected to be significantly lower than the 7.2 million tons tariff quota, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance in the corn market [5] Group 2: Demand Factors - The substitution advantage of wheat over corn has weakened, further boosting corn feed demand, with projected feed consumption for the 2025/2026 season expected to remain high at 193 to 195 million tons [4] - The proactive purchasing by state-owned enterprises like China Grain Reserves Corporation has reduced supply pressure during the new corn harvest season, effectively stabilizing market prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since late October, aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price for October at 21,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price for domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Support - Key macroeconomic factors supporting aluminum prices include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product tariffs, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to a calming geopolitical situation in the Middle East further supports the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest region during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining a high operating rate of over 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with overall demand in October being strong but expected to decline as the industry transitions into the off-season in November [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing reduced activity due to winter conditions, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable, albeit with slower order uptake due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience a high-level oscillation from November to December, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors but facing downward pressure from declining demand [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November followed by a gradual weakening towards the end of the month and into December [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, under the influence of the macro - sentiment, the non - ferrous metal sector has generally recovered. Coupled with the unchanged tight balance between supply and demand, the price of Shanghai tin is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [8] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the Shanghai tin contract continued the recent rebound trend, showing a pattern of "gapping up and rising, and oscillating at a high level". After opening in the morning, it was driven by the warming macro - sentiment and the general rise of the non - ferrous metal sector. Then, restricted by the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream users, the market slightly declined to the daily low. In the afternoon, the game between bulls and bears intensified, and the price oscillated and consolidated in the high - level range, with the total trading volume of the day being a certain number of lots [2] - The total trading volume of Shanghai tin futures contracts was 72,954 lots, and the total open interest was 79,757 lots. Specific data for each contract, such as open price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price change, trading volume, trading value, and open interest change, are detailed in the table [4] Technical Analysis - Today, the daily chart of the Shanghai tin 2512 contract showed a small positive line with a short upper shadow. This pattern reflects a multi - empty game situation where bulls dominated the day, but faced certain selling pressure at high levels, and the lower support was relatively strong. The closing price stood above the high of the previous trading day, continuing the upward channel trend since October 29 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is becoming a "safe haven" for capital, with significant growth in sub-industries such as synthetic resins and adhesives, indicating a transition from "overcapacity" to "tight supply-demand balance" in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:40, the Petrochemical ETF (159731) decreased by 0.12%, while stocks like Sanmei Co., China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum saw notable gains [1] - The latest scale of the Petrochemical ETF is 167 million yuan, with a record share of 198 million, both reaching new highs [1] Group 2: Sub-industry Growth - Synthetic resins and adhesives have experienced rapid growth, with prices doubling since April, driven by companies like Aowei New Materials, which has seen its stock price surge over 15 times this year [1] - Other chemical sub-industries, including nylon and polyurethane, have also shown upward trends [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, products with high correlation to demand in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit first from macroeconomic improvements, while those linked to emerging markets will recover later [1] - MDI and PVC (polyvinyl chloride) are anticipated to be the most certain products for future growth [1] Group 4: Industry Composition - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% of the index [1] - Ongoing government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the chemical industry are a core support for the sector's strength [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy. Due to factors such as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, expected dovish statements from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and tight supply in the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or strong - oscillating trend in the short term [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Supply concerns and optimism about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations pushed up copper prices. On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.2% to $10,947/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract reached 87,660 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 575 to 136,350 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts and inventories in some regions also changed. The spot import of domestic copper was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [2]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and an expected dovish statement from the Fed's interest - rate meeting, sentiment is expected to remain positive. Given the tight supply of copper raw materials and low inventories, copper prices are expected to continue to be strong. The operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract is expected to be 86,600 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M copper is 10,850 - 11,100 dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded. On Friday, the LME aluminum closed down 0.3% to $2,856/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 21,245 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased, and inventories in some domestic regions and abroad changed. The downstream procurement sentiment weakened [4]. - **Strategy View**: After the production suspension of an overseas aluminum plant and considering the low domestic inventory, improved global trade situation, and supply disruptions, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate upward. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,100 - 21,380 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum is 2,830 - 2,880 dollars/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 0.17% to 17,592 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of lead showed different changes. The domestic social inventory decreased to 2.61 million tons [7]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore decreased, and the TC of lead concentrate imports declined. The smelting start - up rate and battery start - up rate showed different trends. With the continuous reduction of lead ingot inventory and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton last Friday. LME and domestic inventories, prices, and spreads of zinc changed. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.21 million tons [10]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased slightly, and the TC of zinc concentrate decreased. The smelting profit declined, and the inventory accumulation rate of domestic zinc ingots slowed down. With a high structural risk of LME zinc and a positive market atmosphere, the Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed down 0.42% to 282,550 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and although the start - up rate of smelters increased slightly, it was still at a low level. The demand in emerging fields provided support, and the social inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy View**: With progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a tight supply - demand balance of tin, and the recovery of demand in the peak season, tin prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME tin is 35,000 - 36,500 dollars/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Last Friday, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The prices of nickel ore and nickel - iron showed different trends, and the price of MHP was high [14]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the significant inventory pressure of refined nickel drags down nickel prices. In the long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support nickel prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If nickel prices fall enough or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of imported lithium concentrate also rose [18]. - **Strategy View**: The downstream demand is strong, and the fundamental situation has improved. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi is delayed, the inventory reduction trend may continue until the end of the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the selling pressure from industrial hedging and supply elasticity. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 77,800 - 82,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 24, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.95% to 2,821 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount, and the overseas price and import profit and loss were stable. The futures inventory remained unchanged [21]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price has short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short term. Considering the positive market atmosphere and the price approaching the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed up 0.35% to 12,810 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and raw - material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy View**: Although the price - support signal from the market is clear, the downstream demand support is weak, and the cost support has declined. The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, so it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose 0.39% to 20,705 yuan/ton. The position decreased, and the trading volume increased. The inventory in some regions decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy View**: Progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and strong cost support the price, but due to high warehouse receipts, the upward space of the near - term contract price may be limited [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of tin is in a short - term tight balance. In the global macro - loose cycle, the medium - term demand is not pessimistic. However, in the short term, there is an expected increase in supply due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, and the growth of tin demand from consumer electronics is not obvious. So, it is not recommended to chase high prices, and buying on dips may have a higher probability of success [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative refined tin output was 127,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.95%. The smelter's operating rate in September was 38.6%, and some enterprises had maintenance in September [5] - In Yunnan, most smelters' output decreased month - on - month, with some having maintenance and production stagnation, and the tin ore supply was still tight. In Guangxi, enterprises' output decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight raw materials. In Jiangxi, the smelter output decreased slightly due to tight raw materials and policy reasons [5] - In October 2025, as large smelters resume production and most sample enterprises maintain stable operation, the domestic refined tin output is expected to rise to about 14,500 tons [5] - Due to the slow increase in the output of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, China's overall tin ore imports remain at a low level, and tin ingot supply has been low. In the fourth quarter, tin ingot supply may increase significantly after the supply of tin mines in Myanmar gradually expands [2][16] Demand - side - In Q3 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 10% year - on - year, the highest since the peak demand during the 2022 pandemic. The growth rate of mobile phone consumption rebounded slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 2%. IDC predicts that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The emerging 3C electronic consumption areas driven by AI are still in the initial stage and have little impact on overall demand [8] - The construction of 5G communication equipment and large - scale data center servers requires a large number of circuit boards and connection components, and the tin consumption is increasing steadily. With continuous investment in global AI - related capital expenditure, the server scale is growing rapidly. IDC data predicts that AI server shipments will increase by 26% year - on - year to 1.895 million units in 2025 and continue to grow in 2026 [8] - In September 2025, China's automobile sales reached 3.226 million, a record high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [8] - Other non - semiconductor demand is relatively stable. Tin consumption in the tinplate field has declined slightly as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The output of PVC has increased slightly year - on - year in the first three quarters, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [12] - Downstream new energy vehicles and AI servers continue to be booming, traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are experiencing a mild recovery, while the photovoltaic field is relatively weak due to over - capacity and trade frictions [2][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After two months of consolidation, the silver market saw a breakthrough in September, with both domestic and international prices hitting multi - year highs. The strong upward trend is driven by multiple factors including macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and gold - silver ratio repair [2][5]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts is strengthening, which provides a solid foundation for the rise of precious metals including silver [11][12]. - The silver market in 2025 is expected to have a supply - demand gap, and the continuous strength of industrial demand, supply - demand imbalance, and low inventory support the long - term price elasticity and allocation value of silver [17][18]. - The current gold - silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Looking ahead, loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in the inflation situation should be noted. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to key price levels [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, after two months of consolidation, the silver market had a breakthrough. The New York silver price exceeded $43 per ounce and reached a high of $44.395 per ounce on September 23, with a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The domestic Shanghai silver also reached a record high of 10,359 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of over 35% [2][5]. - The strong rise in silver prices is due to multiple factors. Macroeconomically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and geopolitical tensions boost silver. Industrially, the demand from sectors like photovoltaics, new - energy vehicles, and semiconductors is strong, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. The current gold - silver ratio is high, indicating undervaluation of silver [2][5]. 3.2 Macro Policy Expectations Driving Precious Metals Up - Economic indicators show a significant slowdown in the US labor market. In August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The inflation data shows some stickiness, and the PPI is in deflation. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 soared to 263,000, heightening concerns about economic slowdown [11]. - Market expectations for the Fed's continued interest rate cuts are strengthening. The September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. As of September 22, the CME data shows a 91.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October and an 80.6% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December, which supports the rise of precious metals [12]. 3.3 Tight Supply - Demand Structure of Silver and Strong Industrial Demand - In 2024, global silver supply increased moderately. Global mined silver production was 819.7 million ounces, up 0.9% year - on - year, and recycled silver supply reached 193.9 million ounces, up 6% year - on - year. The total demand decreased by 3% to 1.16 billion ounces, with a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand reached a record high, especially in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields [17]. - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, and total demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 117.6 million ounces. Excluding ETPs, the physical gap will widen to 187.6 million ounces. The supply - demand gap and low inventory support the price of silver in the long - term [18]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Repair and Enhanced Silver's Catch - up Momentum - The current domestic and international gold - silver ratios are about 82 and 85 respectively, significantly higher than the historical averages of the past 50 years (63) and 20 years (70), indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Historically, when the gold - silver ratio is high, silver usually lags behind and then catches up. In the current context of interest rate cut expectations and industrial demand recovery, silver's financial and commodity attributes resonate, attracting capital inflows [20]. 3.5 Future Operation Suggestions - Loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in inflation data should be noted [3][25]. - It is recommended to buy on dips, focus on the effectiveness of support around $40 per ounce, and set upward targets at around $45 per ounce and $48 per ounce. Attention should be paid to controlling positions and closely monitoring macro - data and capital trends [3][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of LPG crude oil is weakening, while the supply and demand of propylene are in a tight - balance, with short - term fluctuations [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 LPG and Propylene Futures Price - PG2509 closed at 3,875 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.39%, and its night - session price was 3,892 with a night - session increase of 0.44%; PG2510 closed at 4,435 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.27%, and its night - session price was 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.16%; PL2601 closed at 6,467 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and its night - session price was 6,462 with a night - session decrease of 0.08%; PL2602 closed at 6,515 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.23% [1] 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 7,842 (a decrease of 4821 compared to the previous day), and the position was 20,526 (a decrease of 3904 compared to the previous day); for PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 66,639 (a decrease of 10222 compared to the previous day), and the position was 94,067 (a decrease of 5907 compared to the previous day); for PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,117 (a decrease of 783 compared to the previous day), and the position was 4,744 (an increase of 30 compared to the previous day); for PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 10 (an increase of 5 compared to the previous day), and the position was 852 (a decrease of 1 compared to the previous day) [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 135 yesterday (compared to 103 the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 185 (compared to 163 the previous day); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 3 (compared to - 36 the previous day); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 8 (compared to - 41 the previous day); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 42 (compared to - 66 the previous day) [1] 3.1.4 Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, down from 76.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate this week was 63.5%, up slightly from 63.4% last week; the alkylation operating rate remained at 49.0% this week, the same as last week [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.3 Market Information 3.3.1 CP Paper Goods Prices - On August 26, 2025, the September CP paper goods price for propane was 520 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 495 US dollars per ton, down 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day. The October CP paper goods price for propane was 535 US dollars per ton, down 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [7] 3.3.2 Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with an undetermined end - date; etc. [8] 3.3.3 Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Oilfield starting a full - plant maintenance on June 16, 2025, ending in late August 2025, with a loss of 400 units; Shandong's Zhenghe Petrochemical starting a full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, with an undetermined end - date; etc. [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience of viscose short fiber demand despite tariff disputes, with projected consumption growth in 2023 and 2024, and a minimal decline in H1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption and Demand - The apparent consumption of viscose short fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [1][2]. - In H1 2025, the apparent consumption is expected to be 1.96 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline of only 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [1][2]. Group 2: Technology and Market Trends - The rapid development of vortex spinning technology is anticipated to drive continued growth in viscose short fiber demand, with its market share expected to increase from 10% to 25% [2]. - Vortex spinning technology is particularly suited for chemical fibers, showing significant achievements, although it faces challenges in natural fiber applications [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - Effective production capacity for viscose short fiber is projected at 5.07 million tons in 2023 and 4.885 million tons in 2024, with capacity utilization rates of 77.1% and 84.3% respectively [3]. - As of June 2025, nominal capacity is expected to be 5.16 million tons, with effective capacity at 4.935 million tons and a utilization rate of 81.5% [3]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory level for viscose short fiber is reported at 169,700 tons, equating to only 10.9 days of supply, indicating a low inventory level historically [4][5]. - The industry operating rate is at a high of 85.9%, and prices for viscose short fiber have shown an upward trend, with a recent price increase of approximately 150 yuan per ton [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak seasons for textile and apparel, along with a temporary suspension of tariffs, are expected to boost demand for viscose short fiber [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Sanyou Chemical, which are likely to benefit from these market dynamics [6].