网上又都是黄金5500，白银80，美元再跌10%之类的话题了，大家又要很兴奋的高喊要做多金银铜了，美国高盛的大卫所罗门、桥水的达利 欧、还有约翰·保尔森这几个老多头联合起来，通过这轮拔网线行动，打了一次现货供需差，赚了一大票，这种走势不洗，后面就要给散户和现 货商去送钱了！而这个市场，很多人都把现货和商品混为一谈，殊不知，一旦消费端通缩，上游的供需的关系立马就失去了核心预计，人类重 回金银本位就意味着下一代的持续通缩，对于大佬是好事，对于普通人而言，别谈自己的金银储备，因为这个市场，其实并不对普通人开放。 因此，我还是这个观点，美元会降息，但按当下的几个市场上的炒作热情和流动性冻结幅度，美元后面依然会紧张（证券化市场和银行市 场）！传统意义上，降息通常对于传统金融而言意味着货币宽松，但按美债这个规模，如果也要走日本模式，同时，我们也跟进的话，估计会 让全球掀起负利率竞赛或者加息大赛，引发金融巨震，因此，2026年对于世界金融的看法请改下观念，很多事情要从流动性和债务的角度去 看！ 而影响市场情绪的另一重要依据就是美国的制造业经济和就业的复苏！ 2025年11月美国ISM制造业PMI指数降至48.2，较上月下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where following Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering interest rates could result in severe market consequences [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights two potential paths for the Federal Reserve: adopting a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or facing increased equilibrium interest rates due to significant capital expenditures [2][8]. - If the Fed lowers interest rates based solely on the expectation of AI enhancing productivity, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past, particularly given the current inflationary environment [2][5]. - Conversely, if the Fed does not lower rates, it may inadvertently push the market into a crisis, especially if inflation resurfaces as a primary concern by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Greenspan's strategy of "cleaning up rather than intervening" suggests that the Fed may not actively burst asset bubbles but will respond post-factum [3][15]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair are positioning themselves as successors to Greenspan, citing the AI revolution as a justification for lowering rates, despite historical lessons indicating caution [5][6]. - The dual legacy of Greenspan illustrates the Fed's challenge in balancing the benefits of technological advancements against the risks of rising equilibrium interest rates [6][8]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - The report identifies three critical questions that will shape the Fed's policy direction: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector will be inflationary [10]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains similar to those seen in the 1990s [12]. 3. Who will benefit from the productivity improvements brought about by AI [13][14]. Group 4: Economic Implications of AI - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [8][12]. - However, a surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may elevate equilibrium interest rates, necessitating a careful approach from the Fed to avoid overly loose monetary policy [8][10]. - Historical data suggests that during the 1990s, wage growth outpaced productivity growth, indicating that workers may benefit more from productivity gains than corporations [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where following Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering interest rates could result in severe consequences for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights that AI could either lead to a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or push up the equilibrium interest rate (r*), creating two opposing monetary policy paths [1]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates based solely on the expectation of increased productivity from AI, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past, particularly given the current inflation environment is less favorable than in the 1990s [1][5]. - Conversely, if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates, it may inadvertently push the market into a crisis, especially if inflation resurfaces as a primary concern by 2026 [1][2]. Group 2: Greenspan's Legacy - The report discusses Greenspan's dual legacy, where potential successors to the Federal Reserve chair are attempting to position themselves as inheritors of his policies, citing the AI revolution as a justification for lowering rates [3][4]. - Greenspan's 1996 decision to delay rate hikes based on underestimated productivity growth is noted as a pivotal moment, which was later contradicted by his 2000 shift towards tightening monetary policy due to rising equilibrium rates [5][6]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - Three critical questions are identified that will shape the Federal Reserve's policy direction: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector will be inflationary, with concerns that increased energy consumption from data centers could pose inflation risks [8]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains akin to those seen in the 1990s, with estimates of AI's contribution to productivity varying significantly among experts [10]. 3. Who will benefit from productivity gains, as historical trends suggest that workers, rather than corporations, may reap the rewards [11][12]. Group 4: AI's Economic Impact - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [12]. - However, the surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may also elevate equilibrium interest rates, necessitating careful monitoring by the Federal Reserve to avoid overly loose monetary policy [12][14]. Group 5: Market Implications - The Federal Reserve's traditional approach of "cleaning up after the fact" rather than preemptively intervening in asset bubbles is emphasized, suggesting that while they may not actively burst bubbles, they could do so inadvertently [14][15]. - The current inflation dynamics are less favorable than those in the 1990s, which could lead to higher risks if the Federal Reserve attempts to replicate Greenspan's strategies in a different economic context [15].

Summary of the 2026 China Economic Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its outlook for 2026 and 2027, emphasizing the ongoing battle against deflation and the expected gradual recovery in economic growth. Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to be **4.1% in 2026**, with a slight increase to **4.8% in 2027**. This reflects a gradual recovery from the impacts of deflation [3][8][12] - The actual GDP growth rate is expected to decline from **5% in 2025** to **4.8% in 2026** and further to **4.6% in 2027**. This indicates a slowdown in economic activity [8][12] - The growth structure remains uneven, with the manufacturing and export sectors showing resilience, while the real estate sector continues to be a significant drag on overall growth [3][14] Inflation and Deflation - Deflation is anticipated to persist throughout **2026**, with a potential turning point in **2027** as supply-demand balance improves. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to gradually enter a low-inflation zone [3][4][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to emerge from deflation in the second half of **2027** [3][4] Policy Measures - The fiscal deficit for **2026** is expected to remain stable compared to **2025**, with a slight expansion of **0.5 percentage points** of GDP due to quasi-fiscal tools [4][48] - The central bank is likely to implement "symbolic easing," with policy interest rates potentially lowered by **10-20 basis points** and reserve requirement ratios by **25-50 basis points** [4][48] - The focus of fiscal policy will shift towards public services, including education, healthcare, and social welfare, while maintaining support for technology and infrastructure investments [4][49] Risks and Scenarios - Optimistic scenarios include a reduction in tariffs by the U.S. and a global demand recovery, which could accelerate economic rebalancing and potentially lead to an earlier exit from deflation in the second half of **2026** [4] - Pessimistic scenarios involve escalating trade tensions and a U.S. economic downturn, which could necessitate increased supply-side stimulus, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and deflationary pressures [4] Consumer Behavior and Employment - The consumer market is expected to remain subdued, with household consumption growth slowing from **4.6% in 2025** to **4.2% in 2026**, before recovering to **4.4% in 2027** as the job market stabilizes [12][14][17] - The employment market is characterized by low confidence, particularly among youth, contributing to a cautious consumer sentiment that favors saving over discretionary spending [15][19] Investment Trends - Fixed capital formation growth is projected to remain weak, with actual growth rates of **2.4% in 2026** and **2.2% in 2027** due to overcapacity and real estate sector challenges [27][28] - Infrastructure investment is expected to be supported by policy-driven financial tools, focusing on urban renewal and public utility upgrades [28][30] Export Resilience - Net exports are anticipated to contribute **1.3 percentage points** to GDP growth, maintaining a stable contribution despite a projected slowdown in export growth due to the fading effects of tariff-related front-loading [34][36] AI and Technological Investment - AI is expected to support medium-term economic growth through increased capital expenditure, although productivity gains from AI will take longer to materialize [39][47] Other Important Insights - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach in fiscal policy, with a gradual shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in public services [49][56] - The emphasis on technology and self-sufficiency remains a priority, with a focus on enhancing supply chain resilience and modernizing industrial standards [56][58] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the economic outlook for China, focusing on growth projections, inflation dynamics, policy measures, and sector-specific trends.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current bull market in A-shares is still ongoing, despite market fluctuations, as it is determined by national policies and the realization of capital market value [4][6]. - The process of debt reduction is still in its early stages, indicating that the market's recovery is complex and slow [4]. - Economic indicators such as consumer spending, housing prices, and private enterprise investment remain weak, suggesting that deflationary pressures have not changed [5][6]. Group 2 - Technical indicators like K-line combinations, moving averages, and trading volume are essential for stock trading, serving as the foundation of technical analysis [11]. - Fundamental analysis focusing on performance and valuation is crucial for value investors, but it may not significantly improve the success rate for most retail investors due to information lag [13][14]. - National policies and geopolitical factors are vital for identifying market trends and investment opportunities, acting as catalysts for bull markets [15]. Group 3 - Understanding broader trends and logical analysis is key to identifying potential high-performing stocks and serves as a basis for long-term investment decisions [17]. - Maintaining the right rhythm and mindset is critical for successful trading, emphasizing the importance of patience and clarity in decision-making [18][19]. - A comprehensive understanding of all the aforementioned factors contributes to an investor's cognitive development, which is essential for achieving higher investment success [20][21][22].

在很多人的眼里，未来几年国内贬值最快的是现金了。主要原因是，2025年10月，M2（广义货币）余额为335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%。M2是GDP的2 倍。从数据来看，现金会越来越不值钱。但实际上，现金并没有发生快速贬值的情况，反而处于较为平稳的状态。2025年1-10月全国居民消费价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%。 导致现金没有出现大幅贬值的原因有两个：一个是，央行超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向实体经济，所以商品的价格就没有出现明显的上涨。未 来国内经济大概率仍会处于通缩的周期；另一个是，现在多数居民收入增长放缓或下降，导致消费需求下降。而企业为了去库存，及时回笼资金，也不得不 降价销售。随着商品价格下降，就会导致现金的购买力大幅上升。 第二，车子贬值的速度让人吃惊 在进入到2025年之后，国内车子的贬值速度在加快。像之前20多万的中档新能源车，现在只要17-18万就可以购买。而进口高档汽车的降价幅度更是达到了 近10万元。不仅如此，二手汽车市场贬值的速度则更令人吃惊。我朋友杨亮去年5月份花了20万购买的一款新能源汽车，如今在二手汽车市场只值13万元。 未来无论是新车市场， ...

Economic Outlook - The goal for GDP per capita by 2035 is set at $29,000, necessitating a shift in China's economic logic from solely pursuing GDP growth to a new paradigm focusing on productivity enhancement, moderate inflation, and currency appreciation[1] - The new growth paradigm emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP growth and inflation levels, which directly impacts corporate profitability and capital returns[1] Market Dynamics - The equity market is positioned for a systematic revaluation, supported by three main factors: profit foundation, valuation environment, and relative returns[1] - The expectation of RMB appreciation is a significant driver for valuation improvements, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets and drawing global capital to Chinese assets[2] Asset Allocation Trends - There is a notable shift in asset preference from real estate and bonds to equities, driven by the changing yield characteristics of various asset classes in a moderate inflation environment[2] - Bonds, while still a stabilizing component, are expected to see diminishing capital gains potential, while real estate is facing downward pressure due to income and price expectations[2] Consumption and Production Insights - Recent data indicates a recovery in consumption, with metro passenger flow increasing by 5.9% year-on-year and logistics delivery volume rising by 5.8%[12] - Production shows structural improvement, particularly in real estate-related sectors, with a narrowing decline in rebar production and a continued decrease in inventory levels[14] Trade and External Factors - Port cargo throughput has decreased to 266 million tons, reflecting a structural adjustment in external demand, while the export container freight index has risen to 1094.03 points[25] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Japan, have introduced new uncertainties into the external trade environment, impacting market sentiment[25] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The broad deficit for the week ending November 23 reached 204.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 11.2 trillion, indicating a slower pace compared to the previous year[35] - The monetary market remains in a loose state, with indicators suggesting continued low interest rates and a high willingness to leverage in the bond market[44]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is characterized by deflation despite concerns about future inflation due to excessive money supply, with M2 at 335.13 trillion yuan, double the GDP, while consumer prices show only a slight increase of 0.2% in October 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The domestic economy is in a deflationary cycle primarily due to excessive money supply circulating within the financial system rather than reaching the consumer market, leading to stable prices [3]. - A slowdown in income growth among residents has resulted in reduced consumer demand, causing businesses to face excess inventory and resort to price reductions to clear stock [3]. Group 2: Cash Holding Advantages - Individuals holding significant cash are finding their money increasingly valuable, as prices for goods such as pork and electric vehicles have decreased significantly, allowing for greater purchasing power [5]. - The decline in deposit interest rates has led many to invest in stocks and funds, resulting in substantial losses for investors, while cash holders have avoided these risks and losses [7]. - In a deflationary environment, cash holders are better positioned to navigate economic challenges, such as job loss or unexpected medical expenses, providing a sense of stability [10]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - As asset bubbles in stocks and real estate are expected to burst during the deflationary cycle, cash holders will have the opportunity to acquire undervalued assets, positioning themselves for future gains [12]. - Business owners with substantial cash reserves can leverage their liquidity to pay employees and purchase raw materials at lower prices, enhancing their competitive advantage during economic downturns [10].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 2.45% and a cumulative decrease of over 10.6% since October's high of 0.9010, marking the largest monthly drop in 2023. The market is influenced by two opposing forces: the safe-haven demand for CHF due to escalating Middle East tensions and the support for USD from the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate policy. Upcoming Swiss GDP and inflation data are seen as crucial to breaking this stalemate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The volatility in the USD/CHF exchange rate is primarily driven by the contrasting monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve. The SNB is facing pressure to reconsider its zero interest rate policy due to a 0.5% decline in Q3 GDP and a 2.1% year-on-year drop in industrial output, which has sparked discussions about potentially reintroducing negative interest rates [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve, while maintaining a stance on inflation not meeting targets, has seen the USD index drop from a high of 105 to around 102, influenced by the safe-haven demand for CHF [2]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Demand for CHF - The CHF has gained popularity as a safe-haven asset, even surpassing gold in attractiveness, with the largest CHF ETF seeing a 15% increase in holdings over the past week. However, the recent trade agreement reducing tariffs on Swiss goods is only expected to offset one-third of the export losses caused by CHF appreciation [3]. - The SNB's cautious approach to negative interest rates is evident, as it has set a dual threshold of "economic recession + deflation" before considering such measures, which has temporarily restrained CHF's rapid appreciation [2][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of USD/CHF - Technically, the USD/CHF has broken below previous support levels, indicating a "guillotine" pattern, with current trading around 0.8049 in a downtrend. Key resistance levels are identified between 0.8150 and 0.8180, while support is centered around the psychological level of 0.8000 [4]. - Indicators suggest an "oversold rebound" signal, with the exchange rate deviating significantly from the 20-day moving average and the RSI indicator at a three-year low, indicating a high probability of a rebound in the near term [4].

Summary of the 2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese stock market** and its outlook for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 where major indices like the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index rose over **30%** year-to-date [1][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Growth**: - 2026 is expected to be a year of stabilization after the high returns of 2025, with limited upside potential for indices and moderate earnings growth projected at **6%** [2][15]. - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to trade at a forward P/E ratio of **12-13x**, with a target of **90 points** for December 2026, indicating a **3%** upside from the current levels [2][15]. 2. **Valuation and Earnings Quality**: - The report highlights that the valuation re-rating has already occurred, with a **30%** increase in the past year, suggesting limited room for further upward revaluation [12][15]. - Concerns about the sustainability of corporate earnings are raised, as recent earnings reports show a slight deterioration in the number of companies exceeding expectations [11][15]. 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - The Chinese economy is expected to face ongoing deflationary pressures, with real GDP growth projected to slow to **4.8%** in 2026 [12][15]. - Global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy, could impact China's growth trajectory [14][15]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders while underweighting sectors like real estate, consumer staples, and energy that are negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][30]. - Key trading ideas include focusing on stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies and those included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][31]. 5. **Liquidity and Capital Flows**: - The report anticipates continued net inflows into both A-shares and offshore markets, supported by policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and managing real estate inventories [2][28]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Considerations**: The report notes that a stable geopolitical environment, particularly in U.S.-China relations, could positively influence market sentiment [22][25]. - **Sector Preferences**: There is a strong emphasis on investing in companies with robust fundamentals and growth prospects, particularly in technology and innovation sectors aligned with China's strategic planning [19][30]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report outlines a wide range of potential outcomes for the Chinese stock market, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a **30%** upside and pessimistic scenarios indicating a potential **34%** decline [25][26]. Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth and selective investment strategies. The anticipated stabilization in market performance, combined with macroeconomic challenges, necessitates a strategic approach to capital allocation in the coming year [1][15][19].