Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

国内到岸价整体回落，5月上半月集中到岸导致华东阵容率继续走高,码头降价出货。进口成本支撑松动盈加烧 厂外放有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始重启,关注化工 需求回升的节奏。现货端承压延续,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱, SG07合约日内跌2.1%%。昨日有消息称OPEC+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1万桶/天速度 快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term prices are supported due to planned outages, delayed PTA maintenance, and restart of previous maintenance devices. Suggest short - term focus around 6600, and consider PX9 - 10 positive spreads and PX - SC positive spreads [18]. - PTA: Weekly supply - demand weakens, downstream polyester losses increase, and terminal demand is in a wait - and - see state. Short - term is under pressure. Suggest short - term focus on support around 4600 and TA9 - 1 short - selling on rallies [18]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Expected to de - stock from May to June, but the upside is limited by polyester factory production cuts. Suggest unilateral wait - and - see and EG9 - 1 positive spreads on dips [18]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees may be repaired, but short - term absolute prices are dragged down by oil price drops. Suggest PF unilateral trading similar to PTA and expanding PF processing fees at low levels [18]. - Bottle chips: Supply has an incremental expectation, but short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Suggest PR unilateral trading similar to PTA and focus on expanding processing fees at the lower end of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [18]. Urea Industry - The inventory pressure of domestic urea factories is becoming more obvious, and the market may continue to oscillate and bottom. The downward space of the futures market depends on cost support. Future attention should be paid to inventory inflection points, export port collection trends, and coal price fluctuations [28]. Polyolefin Industry - PE: Overall trading is weak, but supply before early June is reduced due to maintenance and imports are low. Demand improves due to tariff cuts, and inventory is expected to decrease. - PP: Supply pressure increases after late May, but there is short - term demand support. Suggest unilateral short - selling on rallies and LP spreads expansion [31]. Crude Oil Industry - OPEC+ is discussing further production increases in July, and industry members are over - producing. US commercial crude inventories are accumulating, and gasoline and distillate demand is weak. Short - term oil prices will oscillate widely. Suggest a band - trading strategy, with WTI in the [59, 69] range, Brent in the [61, 71] range, and SC in the [450, 510] range. Consider buying volatility in the options market [75]. Styrene Industry - Crude oil price drops drag down the aromatics series. Styrene's recent rebound is weakening. Downstream 3S has high inventory, and raw material pure benzene supply - demand is not improving. Suggest a medium - term bearish view and focus on EB - BZ spread widening opportunities [81]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol valuation has a downward pressure, production recovers after spring maintenance, and the port starts to accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is under pressure. Suggest short - selling MA09 on rallies [84]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Short - term supply pressure is limited, demand from alumina is expected to increase, and spot prices are supported. However, non - aluminum demand pressure and cost reduction pose risks. Suggest unilateral wait - and - see. - PVC: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand balance. But in the long - term, there is an over - supply pressure due to the real estate situation. Suggest a medium - term short - selling strategy with a resistance level around 5100 for the 09 contract [89][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Products**: On May 22, POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton (- 0.4% from the previous day), FDY150/96 was 7275 yuan/ton, DTY150/48 was 8220 yuan/ton, etc. [18] - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (July) was 64.91 dollars/barrel (- 0.7% from the previous day), WTI crude (June) was 61.20 dollars/barrel, etc. [18] - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was 835 dollars/ton (- 1.4% from the previous day), PX - crude was 353 dollars/ton (- 2.4% from the previous day) [18]. - **PTA - related**: PTA华东现货价格 was 4895 yuan/ton (- 0.7% from the previous day), TA期货2509 was 4788 yuan/ton (- 1.8% from the previous day) [18]. - **MEG - related**: MEG港口库存 was 74.3 tons (- 1.1% from the previous day), MEG到港预期 was 10.9 tons [18]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices**: On May 22, the 01 contract was 1766 yuan/ton (- 0.39% from the previous day), the 05 contract was 1772 yuan/ton (- 0.51% from the previous day), etc. [23] - **Futures Spreads**: The 01 contract - 05 contract spread was - 6 yuan/ton (25.00% change from the previous day), the 05 contract - 09 contract spread was - 77 yuan/ton (- 4.05% change from the previous day) [24]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 22, the price of无烟煤小块 (Jincheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, the price of动力煤坑口 (Yijinhuoluoqi) was 410 yuan/ton [26]. - **Spot Market**: On May 22, the price of山东 (small particles) was 1880 yuan/ton, the price of山西 (small particles) was 1750 yuan/ton (- 0.57% from the previous day) [27]. - **Supply - Demand**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons (1.49% increase from the previous day), the domestic urea weekly output was 142.55 tons (2.20% increase from the previous week) [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE/PP Prices**: On May 22, L2505 was 7083 yuan/ton (- 0.80% from the previous day), PP2505 was 6938 yuan/ton (- 0.74% from the previous day) [31]. - **PE/PP Non - standard Prices**: On May 22, the price of华东LDPE was 9000 yuan/ton (- 1.64% from the previous day), the price of华东HD膜 was 7550 yuan/ton [32]. - **PE Upstream and Downstream**: The PE装置开工率 was 78.0% (- 1.80% from the previous value), the PE下游加权开工率 was 39.4% (0.33% increase from the previous value) [33]. - **PE Inventory**: The PE企业库存 (Wednesday update) was 49.8 tons (- 5.57% from the previous value), the PE社会库存 (Monday update) was 59.3 tons (- 2.85% from the previous value) [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On May 23, Brent was 64.44 dollars/barrel (- 0.72% from May 22), WTI was 60.75 dollars/barrel (- 0.74% from May 22) [75]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On May 23, NYM RBOB was 212.57 cents/gallon (- 0.26% from May 22), NYM ULSD was 210.89 cents/gallon (- 0.41% from May 22) [75]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: On May 23, the US gasoline crack spread was 28.53 dollars/barrel (0.77% increase from May 22), the European gasoline crack spread was 16.93 dollars/barrel [75]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: On May 22, Brent原油 (July) was 64.4 dollars/barrel (- 0.7% from the previous day), CFR日本石脑油 was 563.0 dollars/ton (- 2.4% from the previous day) [78]. - **Spot and Futures**: On May 22, the苯乙烯华东现货价 was 7765.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0% from the previous day), EB2506 was 7452.0 yuan/ton (- 1.7% from the previous day) [79]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: On May 22, the苯乙烯CFR中国 was 906.0 dollars/ton (- 1.6% from the previous day), the苯乙烯进口利润 was 109.1 yuan/ton (29.8% increase from the previous day) [80]. - **Industry开工率 and利润**: The苯乙烯开工率 was 71.3% (- 1.3% from the previous value), the苯乙烯一体化利润 was 519.7 yuan/ton (349.6% increase from the previous value) [81]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: On May 22, MA2501 was 2311 yuan/ton (- 1.37% from the previous day), MA2505 was 2259 yuan/ton (- 3.59% from the previous day) [84]. - **Inventory**: The methanol企业库存 was 33.401% (- 0.52% from the previous value), the甲醇港口库存 was 49.0 tons (1.34% increase from the previous value) [84]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: The上游 - 国内企业开工率 was 74.51% (- 1.31% from the previous value), the下游 - 外采MTO装置开工率 was 83.54% (10.39% increase from the previous value) [84]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC/烧碱现货 & 期货**: On May 22, the price of山东32%液碱折自价 was 2656.3 yuan/ton, the price of华东电石法PVC市场价 was 4830.0 yuan/ton [89]. - **烧碱海外报价 & 出口利润**: On May 8, the FOB华东港口 was 395.0 dollars/ton, the出口利润 was 46.9 yuan/ton [89]. - **PVC海外报价 & 出口利润**: On February 15, the CFR东南亚 was 670.0 dollars/ton, the出口利润 was 54.1 yuan/ton [89]. - **Supply (开工率 and利润)**: The烧碱行业开工率 was 85.8% (- 1.9% from the previous value), the外采电石法PVC利润 was - 1042.0 yuan/ton (2.8% increase from the previous value) [89]. - **Demand (开工率)**: The氧化铝行业开工率 was 77.0% (- 3.3% from the previous value), the隆众样本管材开工率 was 49.1% (1.9% increase from the previous value) [90][91]. - **Inventory**: On May 15, the液碱华东厂库库存 was 19.4 tons (0.3% increase from the previous value), the PVC总社会库存 was 39.7 tons (- 3.1% from the previous value) [91].

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang Grade 1 soybean oil is 8,260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybeans are likely to achieve a bumper harvest, and the USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, up from 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end, and the inventory may rebound from a low level after the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance [1] - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions: Zhangjiagang 2,860 yuan/ton (+30), Tianjin 2,950 yuan/ton (+20), Rizhao 2,880 yuan/ton (+20), Dongguan 2,900 yuan/ton (+10) [2] - Although a phase - one agreement has been reached in China - US trade, long - term contradictions still exist; US soybeans have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the production areas [2] - The supply of soybeans is gradually recovering, the oil mill operating rate is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. Downstream enterprises will adopt a just - in - time procurement strategy [2] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be oscillating strongly [2] Group 3: Corn - The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia are 2,195 yuan/ton, and in North China and the Huang - Huai region are 2,414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton [3] - The Sino - US joint statement has led to expectations of looser corn imports in the medium and long term, and the May USDA report has increased the US production and ending stocks, which is bearish for US corn futures prices [3] - In China, the supply pressure has been relieved, but downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined due to market sentiment [3] - The short - term futures price will oscillate weakly, and mid - term investors should focus on band - trading long opportunities [3] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,630 yuan, up 230 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - The gradual easing of global tariffs and domestic policy support are beneficial to the market, but raw material issues and inventory declines have complicated the market [4] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of the moving average, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60,850 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 2,150 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Cost support has weakened, supply is high, demand has improved but not enough to drive prices up, and inventory has increased. The spot and futures prices have declined, and attention should be paid to the 60,000 yuan/ton support level [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can go short on rallies [7] Group 6: Steel Rebar - The price of Shanghai steel rebar is 3,190 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.69%, the social inventory is 416.46 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 187.76 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel have improved, the contango structure has weakened, and the current valuation is moderately low. Policy support has increased the apparent demand, and the cost is dynamically adjusted. The inventory is at a low level [8] - The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, and the fundamentals are also improving. The market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Investors should focus on the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data and conduct range trading [8] - The negative feedback in the black market has been gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,155 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,290 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 301.56 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 223.10 million tons [9] - The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at low levels [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [10] - The global iron ore shipment volume has slightly decreased, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased but procurement is still cautious, and overseas demand is differentiated. The US tariff policy has restricted the upward space of iron ore prices [10] - The short - term trend of the iron ore 2509 contract will be range - bound, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The resurgence of twists and turns in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of supply increase, but the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has led to the overall oscillation of crude oil prices. In the medium and long term, the price center will move down [11] - OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply [11] - The WTI main contract will oscillate between 55 - 65 US dollars per barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - With the improvement of the Sino - US trade situation, the fundamentals have improved slightly, but the rebound height is restricted. The supply is loose, and the market is affected by macro - factors [12][13] - The overall supply of rubber exceeds demand, and the market will oscillate [13] Group 11: PVC - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,830 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [14] - The PVC production enterprise operating rate has decreased, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price has rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the upward space is limited [14] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the futures price will oscillate at low levels [15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.19 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [16] - The weekly operating rate of soda ash has decreased, the production has decreased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is average. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [16] - The 09 contract oscillated narrowly yesterday, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, but the decline in consumption intensity may lead to price fluctuations. For aluminum, the rapid depletion of domestic aluminum ingot inventories provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. Lead prices are weak due to limited recycled raw material inventories and the decline in scrap battery prices. Zinc prices face a certain downward risk as the inventory accumulates. Tin prices may decline due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate, and the short - term strategy for alumina is to wait and see. Stainless steel prices have certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [1][3][4][5][7][8][10][13][15] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.34% to $9519/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 77820 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1300 tons to 166525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts continued to decrease to 32000 tons. - **Market Situation**: Domestic social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained above 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference narrowed. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. However, due to the decline in consumption intensity, the price is expected to be volatile. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77200 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is $9400 - 9600/ton [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.77% to $2456/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20160 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased rapidly, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased to 58000 tons. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume in the spot market improved, and the inventory depletion rate accelerated. - **Price Outlook**: The rapid depletion of inventory provides support, but the seasonal weakness in consumption restricts the upside potential. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum is $2430 - 2480/ton [3] Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 1.29% to 16681 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1955/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 58200 tons. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, and the start - up rate continues to decline. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term lead prices are weak [4] Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.72% to 22256 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell to $2676/ton. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 83800 tons, and the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. - **Market Situation**: In April, the export volume of unforged zinc alloy increased significantly, mainly flowing to Taiwan. The port inventory of zinc concentrate continued to rise, and the processing fee increased again. - **Price Outlook**: In the medium term, as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates, zinc prices still face a certain downward risk [5] Tin - **Price Movement**: SHFE tin main contract fell 1.10% to 264780 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 14 tons to 8056 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 5 tons to 2665 tons. - **Market Situation**: The tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the high price suppresses the downstream restocking willingness. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price center may move down. The operating range of SHFE tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $30000 - 33000/ton [6][7] Nickel - **Price Movement**: SHFE nickel fell 0.53% to 122890 yuan/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.90% to $15490/ton. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 86 tons to 200910 tons. - **Market Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded, and the price of intermediate products remains high. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term rebound in nickel iron prices provides support, and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel is $15000 - 16300/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index remained unchanged at 62657 yuan, and the LC2507 contract rose 1.70% to 62140 yuan. - **Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, and the SMM weekly inventory decreased by 141 tons. - **Market Situation**: The disk price is in the cost - intensive area, and there is selling pressure above. - **Price Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are likely to fluctuate. The operating range of the LC2507 contract is 61100 - 63200 yuan/ton [10] Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.05% to 3207 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9900 tons to 163600 tons. - **Market Situation**: The spot prices in various regions increased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. - **Price Outlook**: Due to the continuous disturbances in the mine and supply sides, the short - term strategy is to wait and see. The operating range of the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [12][13] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.23% to 12870 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory decreased by 1314 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. - **Market Situation**: The prices of raw materials were stable, and the long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Qing Shan Group remained unchanged. - **Price Outlook**: The 304 variety has certain resilience, and the focus is on raw material price fluctuations and downstream demand recovery [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices fell below $3300 due to factors such as the easing of geopolitical tensions, the alleviation of panic in the US and Japanese bond markets, and better - than - expected US economic data. Short - term market volatility is high, and there is a risk of correction, but the long - term view is bullish [1][13]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and they are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to directly implement this strategy. It is advisable to go long in the medium - term but choose the right time [2][15]. - The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term as US business confidence improved in May, but caution is still needed as the US economic trend remains unchanged [20]. - US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and the pressure from long - term interest rates [27]. - For various commodities, different trends are expected. For example, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; corn prices are expected to rise; copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term; etc. [4][43][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Japan's core CPI in April rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the national CPI rose 3.6% year - on - year. The US 5 - month manufacturing and service PMI rebounded more than expected. Gold prices fell below $3300 due to multiple factors. Short - term attention should be paid to the risk of correction, while the long - term view is bullish [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation and a 154.5 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. In the short - term, treasury bond futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, the yield curve is expected to steepen, but now may not be the best time to go long [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - US business confidence improved in May, and the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize. The US dollar index may rebound in the short - term [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - As of the end of March, loans to high - tech SMEs have grown at a rate of over 20% for three consecutive years. The North - Star 50 index's decline may signal a return to value for high - dividend and blue - chip assets. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 5 - month service and manufacturing PMI were better than expected. If tariffs decline, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. US stock index futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to concerns about the US government's debt [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean exports were in line with expectations. Rain may slow down the sowing progress but benefit the sown soybeans. The price of domestic imported soybeans remained stable, and the spot price of soybean meal was stable with a slight increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [28][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Domestic cotton yarn prices rose, but demand followed up slowly. China's textile and clothing exports in April increased year - on - year. Cotton commercial inventory decreased rapidly, and there may be a supply shortage in the later stage. It is recommended to be cautiously optimistic about Zhengzhou cotton futures and pay attention to inventory and trade negotiations [31][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Colombia imposed anti - dumping measures on Chinese welded pipes. Global crude steel production in April decreased year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the decline rate slowed down. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a light - position and wait and use a hedging strategy for spot [36][38]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch production rate decreased, and inventory changed little. The starch sugar production rate increased. It is expected that the CS07 - C07 spread will remain in a low - level oscillation [40][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Heavy rain warnings were issued in some areas. North port corn inventory decreased significantly. Some hedging positions left the market, and the supply in the spot market is expected to increase. Corn prices are expected to rise [42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Wens Co., Ltd. will continue its share - repurchase plan. The pig futures market is mainly trading based on long - term production capacity and short - term de - stocking speed. It is recommended to take profit on short positions [44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru plans to set up a mining fund, and a new copper - gold porphyry system was discovered in Argentina. China's copper industry index decreased slightly. Copper prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [46][48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and domestic lead inventory decreased. The price of scrap batteries decreased, and the lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and look for low - buying opportunities in the medium - term [51][52]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the LME zinc spread was at a discount. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, and the medium - term view is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to pay attention to positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [53][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased in April. The average spot price of polysilicon decreased. It is recommended to focus on positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [56][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project is about to be put into operation. The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and short positions can be held [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In March 2025, the global refined nickel supply was in surplus. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of high - nickel iron was active. It is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai nickel futures will be between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. Short - term band trading and medium - term long - buying opportunities can be considered [61][62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwean lithium exporters are seeking to postpone the export tax. The supply of lithium carbonate is in surplus, and the cost support is weakening. The market is expected to remain unstable until the spot and downstream orders improve [63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG production increased week - on - week, and port inventory decreased. The domestic LPG price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [66][68]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating in a narrow range. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is likely to be under pressure [69][70]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. European natural gas inventory is rising rapidly. The price of US natural gas is expected to oscillate upwards [71][73]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily. The supply of caustic soda is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The impact of alumina price increase on caustic soda is indirect, and it is difficult to drive a significant increase in the caustic soda market [75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly. The pulp market is expected to oscillate [77][78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly. The PVC market is expected to oscillate [79]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production rate increased week - on - week. The urea market is in a weak state. Urea prices are expected to oscillate, and the 9/1 spread is expected to remain high [80][82]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips decreased slightly. The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate at a low level following the cost [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash decreased slightly. The soda ash market is stable with slight oscillations. In the short - term, plant maintenance may support the price, while in the medium - term, it is advisable to go short on rallies [86]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The glass futures price is weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range. Attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk adjusted its shipping route. The container freight rate on the European line rebounded. The short - term view is that the market will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [89].

定状态，但个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，少数企业将在月 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 底存检修计划，或将对整体产能利用率形成拖拽。br2507合约短线关注12000附近支撑情况，建议暂以观 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-05-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack strengthened, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack oscillated at a high level, the near - end monthly spread strengthened, and the basis continued to strengthen [3]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory continued to decline, ARA ports' inventory decreased, and the US residue oil inventory increased significantly. Singapore's high - sulfur floating storage decreased, with overall inventory decline. The floating storage in the Middle East oscillated at a high level, and Saudi Arabia's exports were at a neutral level year - on - year. The floating storage in Fujairah oscillated, and the European floating storage decreased [3]. - Recently, the low - sulfur market has strengthened. Attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments and the change in the low - sulfur export volume of the Dangote refinery. The high - sulfur crack is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. The bunker fuel demand is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to tariff impacts. In the short term, the bunker fuel market has turned prosperous due to rush shipments. In the future, attention should be paid to the procurement demand for power generation and the opportunity for the high - sulfur crack to decline in the medium term [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/05/15 - 2025/05/21 | |--|--| | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | +2.35 [1] | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +1.90 [1] | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | +0.25 [1] | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +1.27 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +0.63 [1] | | LGO - Brent M1 | +0.60 [1] | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | - 0.45 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Product | Change from 2025/05/15 - 2025/05/21 | |--|--| | Singapore 380cst M1 | +9.53 [1] | | Singapore 180cst M1 | +9.13 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +4.25 [1] | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | +0.72 [1] | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | +0.70 [1] | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 1.08 [1] | Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change from 2025/05/15 - 2025/05/21 | |--|--| | FOB 380cst | +8.93 [2] | | FOB VLSFO | +3.34 [2] | | 380 Basis | +0.55 [2] | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +1.5 [2] | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | +2.5 [2] | Domestic FU Futures Data | Product | Change from 2025/05/15 - 2025/05/21 | |--|--| | FU 01 | +26 [2] | | FU 05 | +7 [2] | | FU 09 | +36 [2] | | FU 01 - 05 | +19 [2] | | FU 05 - 09 | - 29 [2] | | FU 09 - 01 | +10 [2] | Domestic LU Futures Data | Product | Change from 2025/05/15 - 2025/05/21 | |--|--| | LU 01 | +3 [3] | | LU 05 | - 7 [3] | | LU 09 | +11 [3] | | LU 01 - 05 | +10 [3] | | LU 05 - 09 | - 18 [3] | | LU 09 - 01 | +8 [3] |

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Current spot price of Zhangjiagang Yijiang first - grade soybean oil is 8310 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast is 52.5 bushels/acre, compared to 50.7 bushels/acre in 2024/25 [1] - The mid - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2850 yuan/ton (-30), 2860 yuan/ton (-30), and 2870 yuan/ton (-10) respectively [2] - A phased Sino - US trade agreement has been reached, but long - term contradictions remain. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are in the peak export period [2] - Soybean supply is gradually recovering, and the oil mill operating rate is increasing. The supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating slowly in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2198 yuan/ton in Northeast and Inner Mongolia, 2419 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3] - The Sino - US joint statement on tariff reduction has a short - term impact on corn prices, and the USDA May report is bearish for US corn futures. Domestically, the supply pressure has eased, but downstream demand is weak [3] - The price of domestic corn is mainly determined by its own fundamentals, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited [3] Group 4: Copper - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78210 - 781470, up 230, with a premium of 340 - 440. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [4] - Global tariff tensions are easing, and domestic policies are supportive. However, raw material issues persist, and copper inventory in China is declining rapidly, making the market more complex [4] - Copper prices have not completely escaped the influence of moving averages, and the upper limit of the moving average system is set as the overall defense line [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63350 (-900) yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 62850 (-1550) yuan/ton. The price difference is 2050 (+650) yuan/ton [5] - The cost of lithium carbonate production has decreased, but the profit margin has not expanded. Supply is high, demand is improving but not strong enough, and inventory is accumulating [6] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the cost is fluctuating. Social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - A long - position strategy at low levels is recommended as the negative feedback of the black market is gradually reflected in the price [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of main coking coal and metallurgical coke are 1205 yuan/ton and 1340 yuan/ton respectively. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and that of coke is 246.10 million tons [9] - Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, inventory is slowly accumulating, and the profit of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to the loose supply [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - The Platts iron ore index is 100.35, and the prices of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) are 762 and 763 respectively [10] - Supply is slightly decreasing, demand is mixed, and the US tariff policy adds uncertainty. The market is influenced by multiple factors [10] - The iron ore 2509 contract may oscillate in the short term, and investors are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - The OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The market expects oversupply, and the price may decline in the long - term. The WTI main contract may oscillate around 55 - 65 dollars/barrel [11] - The resurgence of the US - Iran negotiation and the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating add uncertainty to the oil market [11] Group 10: Rubber - The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the production season. The US auto tariff may suppress global demand [12][13] - Rubber may oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and inventory changes [12][13] Group 11: PVC - The spot price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The production enterprise operating rate has decreased, demand is still weak, and inventory has decreased [14] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to the weak fundamentals [14][15] Group 12: Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1422.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The operating rate and production of soda ash have decreased, and inventory is slightly decreasing. Demand is average [16] - The soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to device maintenance and emergencies [16]