Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. stock market**, **Hong Kong stock market**, and **global asset markets**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Trends** - The U.S. stock market is showing a clear rebound trend compared to the volatile nature of the Hong Kong market, with the potential to reach historical highs soon [1][2][3] - Global assets, excluding Chinese assets, have returned to pre-tariff levels, indicating a different external environment [2] 2. **U.S. Stock Market Drivers** - The U.S. stock market's recent gains are attributed to improved policy, events, and fundamental data, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increasing by 1.5% and 1.2% respectively [3] - Key factors for the rise include the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, a stable unemployment rate, and a reduction in geopolitical conflicts [4] 3. **Economic Indicators** - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is crucial; a further slowdown could support the bullish sentiment in the stock market [5] - The job market remains resilient, with the U6 unemployment rate unchanged, indicating overall employment strength [4] 4. **Debt and Interest Rates** - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen by 10 basis points due to better-than-expected employment data, with a higher risk of further increases in the near term [6] - Concerns about debt sustainability are overstated, as 80% of U.S. debt is short-term, reducing refinancing risks [7] 5. **Gold Market Insights** - There has been an increase in gold ETF holdings, particularly in the U.S., indicating a growing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [8] 6. **Hong Kong Market Observations** - The Hong Kong market has seen cautious optimism, with investors lacking momentum due to insufficient incremental capital and policy support [9][10] - The market is characterized by a rotation towards undervalued stocks, with small-cap stocks gaining attention [11][12] 7. **Investment Strategies** - The focus remains on large-cap technology stocks and dividend-paying stocks, which are seen as attractive given the current liquidity conditions [13][14] - The overall sentiment towards Hong Kong stocks is cautious, with expectations that the current volatility will persist until significant news emerges [14][21] 8. **Future Outlook** - The market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with potential catalysts being U.S.-China trade negotiations and upcoming economic data releases [22][23] - The long-term view suggests that the U.S. dollar may experience a period of volatility rather than a significant decline [19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the importance of distinguishing between emotional trading and fundamental analysis, emphasizing a return to basic economic indicators for investment decisions [15][16] - The potential for a shift in the U.S. fiscal landscape due to the upcoming debt ceiling discussions and the implications for market stability [18][19]

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月15日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★★★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】】 今天郑棉小幅下跌,下游需求偏弱仍是限制价格主要因素。国产棉现货销售基差坚挺;棉花产业链呈现原料更强,下游偏弱的 局面，纯棉纱价格跟随原料上涨，但动能偏弱。下游内地纺企开机继续下行，成品库存继续累积，不过新疆纺企开机仍高。截 至6月底，棉花商业库存为282.98万吨，较5月底减 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Foreign Ministers' Council meeting will be held in Tianjin on July 15, 2023, to prepare politically for the upcoming summit in the fall [1] - Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to China marks his first visit in five years, signaling a potential improvement in Sino-Indian relations [1][2] - The meeting will include discussions on cooperation in various fields and significant international and regional issues, with several resolutions and documents expected to be signed [1] Group 2 - Vice President Han Zheng met with S. Jaishankar, emphasizing the importance of mutual cooperation between China and India as both are major developing countries [2] - Jaishankar expressed India's willingness to maintain the momentum of improving relations with China, following the successful meeting between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi in October [2] - The two countries are looking to accumulate positive factors in their bilateral relationship while avoiding disputes and conflicts [2][3] Group 3 - Since the border conflict in June 2020, Sino-Indian relations have experienced fluctuations, but recent high-level interactions indicate a warming trend [3] - The 23rd meeting of special representatives on the Sino-Indian border issue took place in December 2024, marking the first substantive discussions in five years [3] - Increased frequency of high-level interactions this year includes visits from Indian officials to China, indicating India's desire to stabilize relations [3][4] Group 4 - The upcoming SCO Foreign Ministers' meeting is seen as a platform for India to discuss various issues, including rare earth supplies and recent developments in the India-Pakistan situation [5] - Experts suggest that India's willingness to improve relations with China may be influenced by pressure from the United States, as India seeks to use its relationship with China as leverage in negotiations with the U.S. [5] - Recent indications of a potential temporary trade agreement between India and the U.S. suggest a possible easing of trade tensions [5] Group 5 - The meeting between Chinese and Russian foreign ministers in the days leading up to the SCO meeting highlights the close coordination between the two countries [6][8] - The SCO is viewed as a stabilizing force in the Eurasian region, addressing various security challenges and promoting sustainable development [9] - The upcoming summit is expected to result in significant decisions regarding the future development of the SCO and its strategic direction for the next decade [10]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and maintained growth in a complex global economic environment, with total imports and exports reaching a historical high in the first half of 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of 2023, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [1]. - In June alone, the import and export scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, marking a 5.2% growth, the second highest monthly trade figure in history [3]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - In the first half of 2023, the total trade value between China and the U.S. was 2.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with exports down 9.9% and imports down 7.7% [1]. - The trade relationship shifted from growth in the first quarter to a decline in the second quarter, with a drop of 20.8% attributed to the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" [1]. Group 3: Structural Changes in Trade - The proportion of green low-carbon products in total exports rose to 18%, indicating a shift towards technology-intensive industries replacing traditional labor-intensive sectors [2]. - China's foreign trade is transitioning from processing trade to general trade, reflecting a move from a "cost-driven" model to a "quality and efficiency-driven" model, enhancing the resilience of domestic economic growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade maintained resilience in the first half of the year, achieving total growth, quality improvement, and controllable variables despite a complex international environment [1][4]. Group 1: Total Growth - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first five months [1]. - Exports exceeded 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history during the same period, showing a rapid growth of 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, experiencing a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, but the decline was narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first five months [1]. - The second quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in total trade, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter, marking seven consecutive quarters of growth [1]. Group 2: Quality Improvement - Chinese foreign trade enterprises have capitalized on the global energy transition trend, increasing the supply of high-quality green products and exploring new fields [2]. - Exports of electromechanical products reached 7.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports [2]. - High-end equipment related to new productive forces grew by over 20%, while "new three samples" products representing green and low-carbon initiatives increased by 12.7% [2]. Group 3: Controllable Variables - China expanded its trade partnerships, with imports and exports to over 190 countries and regions increasing, and the number of trading partners with a trade volume exceeding 50 billion yuan rising to 61, an increase of five compared to the previous year [2]. - Trade with traditional markets like the EU, Japan, and the UK grew, while emerging markets contributed significantly, with imports and exports to Africa and Central Asia increasing by 14.4% and 13.8% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The fluctuation in import growth is attributed to uncertainties in international trade policies and falling prices of bulk commodities, which significantly impact China's import growth [3].

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The import and export scale stabilized above 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - In the second quarter, the import and export growth rate accelerated to 4.5%, with all three indicators (import, export, total trade) showing positive growth in June [2] - In June, the total trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (7.2% growth) and imports at 1.51 trillion yuan (2.3% growth) [2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export scale surpassed 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with a 7.2% year-on-year growth [3] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in high-end machine tools and marine engineering equipment [3] - Private enterprises led exports with 8.52 trillion yuan, an 8.3% increase, while foreign-funded enterprises and state-owned enterprises also saw growth [3] Group 3: Import Trends - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7%, influenced by international trade policy uncertainties and falling commodity prices [4][5] - The decline in import growth was primarily due to a drop in prices for major commodities like crude oil and iron ore [5] - However, there was a rebound in imports of high-end equipment and consumer goods, driven by domestic economic recovery [5] Group 4: Role of Private and Foreign Enterprises - Private enterprises accounted for 57.3% of total foreign trade, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase in their import and export activities [6] - Foreign enterprises' import and export activities reached 6.32 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [7] Group 5: Sino-US Trade Relations - Trade with the US saw a decline, with total trade value at 2.08 trillion yuan, down by 9.3% [8] - Recent trade talks have led to a recovery in Sino-US trade, with June figures showing improvement compared to May [8][9] Group 6: Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase [10] - The growth in cross-border e-commerce highlights its role as a significant trend in international trade [10]

海关总署：今年上半年，中国对美国进出口总值同比下降9.3%。以人民币计价对美国出口同比下降9.9%，自美国进口下降7.7%。近期中美贸易有所回升。目前中美双方团队正在加紧落实伦敦框架有关成果。希望美国继续同中方相向而行。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):海关总署：中国6月的进出口规模3.85万亿元，增长5.2%，规模是历史上月度进出口的第二高位。其中，出口2.34万亿元，增长7.2%，增长比较快的有，电子元件、船舶等；进口1.51万亿元，增长2.3%，增长比较快的有，自动数据处理设备的零附件、干鲜瓜果等。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of new tariffs announced by President Trump on multiple countries, including Malaysia, which faces a 25% tariff increase [1] - Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir expresses that Trump's tariff policy will harm the U.S. more than other countries, leading to increased living costs in the U.S. [1] - Mahathir suggests that Malaysia can mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs by reducing trade with the U.S. and strengthening trade relations with China [1] Group 2 - Mahathir criticizes U.S. actions in the South China Sea, stating that U.S. military presence escalates regional tensions [2] - He highlights the negative consequences of U.S. political maneuvers, such as Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which he believes provoked instability [2] - Mahathir emphasizes that China has not taken aggressive actions in the South China Sea and that Malaysia must find a way to coexist with China [5] Group 3 - The article also touches on Mahathir's views regarding global conflicts, including the Ukraine situation, which he attributes to Western provocation [6] - He condemns Israel's actions against Hamas as unacceptable, labeling them as acts of genocide [6] - Mahathir acknowledges the lack of unity among Muslim countries in their relations with Israel, attributing the ongoing issues to historical land dispossession [6]

Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Bank and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council released the latest GBA Business Sentiment Index, indicating that businesses in the Greater Bay Area remain resilient despite the impact of U.S. tariffs following the "Liberation Day" [1][2] - Approximately 75% to 80% of businesses in the Greater Bay Area reported negative impacts from U.S. tariffs, primarily due to delays in business plans and logistics disruptions [1][2] - The overall outlook for businesses has become more cautious, with the expectation index dropping from 54.3 in Q1 to 52.0 in Q2, marking the lowest level since Q4 2022, although still above the neutral level of 50 [2] Business Impact - 41% of respondents indicated they would delay business plans due to U.S. tariffs, while 35% reported severe disruptions in logistics or customs processes [2] - 30% of businesses experienced customer loss as clients shifted to markets less affected by tariffs, and 32% planned to increase domestic sales as a common response to the tariff impacts [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has accelerated order fulfillment and production in Q2, alongside advancements in artificial intelligence [2] Economic Outlook - The cautious sentiment among Greater Bay Area businesses is attributed to unclear overall business prospects, especially regarding trade policy developments after the expiration of tariff exemptions [2] - Hong Kong's economy showed steady expansion in Q1, highlighting the significant impact of international trade and tariff policies on the local economy [2] - The largest declines in the expectation sub-indices were seen in financing scale (-5.1 points), finished goods/service prices (-4.8 points), and production/sales (-2.6 points) [2]

2025/7/4 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG 国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 | | 水平;未来两周美豆天气无明显异常;需求方面,从存档推断,生猪供应在11月前预期稳步增加;禽类存栏维持高位;豆粕性价比较 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 高，饲用添比提升，提货居于高位：部分地区小麦替代玉米，减少对蛋白的用量。库存方面，截至上周五，国内大豆和豆粕继续累库, | | | | 目前大豆库存居于历史同期高位,豆粕库存仍然居于历史同期低位,饲料企业豆粕库存天数继续上升。 | | | 结 | 整体来说,中美贸易谈判预期下,美豆偏强,巴西贴水小幅下跌。国内部分油厂出现催提现象,基差偏弱。屈期关注中美贸易谈判 | | | | 进展,建议观望。 | | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求推确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构 | | | ਜੇ | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者带殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。投资者需自行判断本报告中10任 ...