交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为080元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为634.77元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

板块逻辑： 对2026年商品期货的充分讨论与分析后，在主力合约相继转移至05合 约后，市场开始进入了资金主导的预期交易。聚烯烃被作为空配，期价再 创新低；PX因供需偏紧的预期，成为多配首选，利润创年内新高。这种极 致的价差也很可能因为资金的扰动出现反向波动，关注强势品种月差的阶 段性见顶。周一公布库存的三大液化品种，EB、BZ和EG，全部都实现了库 存的环比走高，BZ库存甚至环比增加5%，BZ和EB港口库存位于五年最高， EG库存也向五年中位靠拢。 原油：俄乌及委内地缘持续扰动，油价延续震荡 沥青：美委局势再度升温，沥青期价上涨 高硫燃油：地缘带动高硫燃油期价上涨 低硫燃油：低硫燃油跟随原油上涨 甲醇：沿海内地均偏僵持，甲醇震荡看待 尿素：供应需求双弱，盘面震荡整理 乙二醇：负荷仍有抬升空间，现货流通宽松未改 PX：情绪助推下，PX维持偏强整理，利润持续扩张 PTA：成本提振下预期向好 短纤：上游成本支撑转强，但无法完全转嫁，利润压缩 瓶片：上游原料成本支撑价格 丙烯：现货偏强，PDH降开工预期，PL震荡 PP：检修预期提振，PP震荡 塑料：检修支撑有限，塑料震荡偏弱 苯乙烯：新增出口成交&芳烃氛围偏强，苯乙 ...

Z0003135 张晓珍 甲醇价格及价差 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年12月23日 | 品种 MA2601 收盘价 | 12月22日 2116 | 12月19日 2116 | 涨跌 0 | 涨跌幅 0.00% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | MA2605 收盘价 | 2155 | 2148 | 7 | 0.33% | | | MA15价差 | -39 | -32 | -7 | 21.88% | | | 太仓基差 | 22 | 25 | -3 | -12.00% | | | MTO05盘面 | -346 | -231 | -115 | 49.78% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 1905 | 1908 | -3 | -0.13% | | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2105 | 2103 | 3 | 0.12% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2130 | 2130 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 225 | 223 | ന | 1.12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价仍易承压，相 对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹维持震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.28%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需两端有所企稳，螺纹供应回升 但依旧是年内低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同样企稳，高频需求 指标有所增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而承压钢 价。目前来看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are supported by the cost side but suppressed by weakening demand and potential tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - After macro - events are settled, the trading logic of iron ore returns to fundamentals. With restrained shipments, steel mills' restocking needs, and coking coal price concessions, the downside space of iron ore prices is expected to be limited [20] - As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve. Coke spot still has room for price cuts from a valuation perspective, and attention should be paid to the progress of the steel mills' third - round price cut [29] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are currently weak. Although the futures prices rebounded due to relevant policies, the rebound may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [45] - With the strengthening expectation of new capacity production, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. The weakening demand from glass and high inventories restrict the price of soda ash [59] - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand put pressure on the spot market [82] Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3120, 3119, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3276, 3269, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4] - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different changes compared to the previous day [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had minor changes on December 19, 2025. For example, the rebar summary price in China was 3325 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton [8][10] - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly [8][10] - **Other Ratios** - The 01, 05, and 10 contract ratios of rebar to iron ore were all 4; the ratios of rebar to coke were all 2 on December 19, 2025 [17] Iron Ore - **Price Data** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 798, 780, and 758 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1, 2.5, and 3 yuan/ton respectively [21] - The basis of different contracts showed a downward trend [21] - **Fundamental Data** - The daily average pig iron output was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons [24] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios** - On December 19, 2025, the spreads of coking coal and coke contracts showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 195 yuan/ton [32] - The coking profit, mine - coke ratio, etc. also changed [32] - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes. The immediate coking profit was 24 yuan/ton [35] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron** - On December 19, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 90 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 48 yuan/ton; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton [46] - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 82 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 28 yuan/ton; the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5500 yuan/ton [47] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1120, 1176, and 1236 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 17, 17, and 14 yuan/ton respectively [60] - The month - spreads also changed [60] - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable. The basis of soda ash in different regions showed a downward trend [60] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads** - On December 19, 2025, the closing prices of glass 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 941, 1041, and 1138 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 12, 21, and 18 yuan/ton respectively [83] - The month - spreads and basis of glass contracts changed [83] - **Sales and Production Data** - The sales - to - production ratios of glass in different regions such as Shahe, Hubei, etc. showed different trends in December 2025 [84]

相关研究报告： 估值方面，玻璃近两年反复验证成本线支撑，绝对价格下限在 950 元/吨上下 随成本波动。一季度来看，年初高库存+需求淡季，玻璃或难脱离降价竞争，关注 成本支撑。开年后需求带来的估值弹性取决于前期出清力度以及中游库存压力去 化程度。FG05 合约估值参【1000，1280】，根据成本动态调整。 《玻璃：中游库存高企 成本 支撑加强；纯碱：投产对冲 出清 现价继续探底》国联期 货玻璃纯碱四季度报告 《玻璃：库存转移、供给变 动带来估值弹性；纯碱：成 本中枢上移 新利空在产能 投放》国联期货玻璃纯碱 11 月报告 纯碱： 展望 2026 年，纯碱预期供减需增，基本面得到边际修复，但行业高库存矛盾 的消化依旧面临挑战。供给端，纯碱中长期仍在扩产周期，2026 年新增供给集中 在年初和年末，年中行业在低估值下进行出清竞争，或能看到开工下降带来的过 剩矛盾消化。需求端 2025 年轻重碱分化的格局或在 2026 年延续，新能源锂电行 业的发展外加出口强势或带来请极爱你需求进一步抬升，而重碱端无论浮法玻璃 还是光伏玻璃，短期仍旧在行业亏损+库存高企的双重压力下面临出清压力，中期 或在二季度末看到日熔量修复。 ...

| | | | | | | | | Extern Assisted in | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/19 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2605 | J ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - PX has a supply gap due to high polyester operation rates, and its profit hits a new high. The market is bullish, and PXN reaches a new peak [8]. - PTA's valuation continues to rise due to tight PX supply - demand on the cost side and high polyester operation rates. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread [8]. - MEG is in a range - bound market as the increase in supply cannot change the future inventory build - up pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On December 18, 2025, the PX price rises. The PX - naphtha price spread reaches a new high in 2025. Higher margins may incentivize producers to increase output, but most Asian producers are cautious in the short term [3][5]. - PTA: Some PTA producers outside China are struggling to secure 2026 regular contracts. In mainland China, an Ineos 1.25 - million - ton PTA unit reduces operation and may shut down, with the PTA load at 73.2% as of Thursday [6]. - MEG: As of December 18, the overall ethylene glycol operation rate in mainland China rises to 71.97%, and the operation rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increases to 75.46% [6]. - Polyester: A filament unit of Sanfangxiang experiences a minor issue during the feeding process, delaying production. The domestic polyester load in mainland China remains around 91.2% as of Thursday [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 1, indicating a neutral view [8]. Price and Margin Data - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF, and SC futures prices rise, with PTA having the highest daily increase rate of 1.37%. MEG futures rise slightly by 0.24% [2]. - **Spot**: PX, PTA, and naphtha spot prices rise, while MEG spot price falls. The PX - naphtha spread is 282.92 dollars/ton [2]. - **Processing Margin**: The PX - naphtha spread increases by 1.5 dollars/ton, while PTA and short - fiber processing margins decrease [2].