Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the fatty acid market, particularly for stearic acid and lauric acid, driven by the strong rise in palm oil prices since August [1][2] - As of August 31, the average price of stearic acid was 10,044 yuan per ton, an increase of 571.22 yuan (6.03%) from August 1, while lauric acid averaged 18,600 yuan, up 1,703.05 yuan (10.08%) [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing tight supply and cost support, leading stearic acid producers to flexibly adjust prices based on their inventory, with expectations of price increases in the short term [1][2] Group 2 - The strong performance of palm oil, primarily imported from Malaysia and Indonesia, is influencing domestic prices, with palm oil prices rising to an average of 9,393.57 yuan, up 470.64 yuan (5.27%) since August 1 [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory was reported at 2.113 million tons, lower than expected, while exports increased by 3.82%, alleviating concerns of oversupply and supporting price increases [2] - Indonesia's biodiesel policies are expected to sustain demand for palm oil, further supporting international prices as exports decrease [2] Group 3 - The fatty acid market is facing supply constraints due to raw material shortages, low operating rates, and low inventory levels among companies, which are limiting the availability of stearic acid [3] - Despite weak terminal demand and reduced production capacity, the overall supply-demand balance remains tight, keeping stearic acid prices elevated [3] - The import volume of stearic acid in July was 15,700 tons, a decrease of 32.9% year-on-year, with rising import costs further suppressing import intentions [3] Group 4 - Demand for fatty acids is currently weak, with downstream industries primarily consuming previously low-priced orders and showing resistance to high-priced raw materials [4] - The tire and real estate sectors have not yet activated demand, leading to a supply surplus in the stearic acid market, where some manufacturers are forced to lower prices to stimulate sales [4] - The PVC production chain, which relies on stearic acid, is facing low demand due to limited new construction projects in real estate, resulting in only essential purchases from downstream enterprises [4] Group 5 - Lauric acid demand is also affected by seasonal changes, with a decline in demand from the daily chemical and food industries as they enter autumn and winter [5] - However, there is some minor replenishment of inventory due to the rising prices of palm kernel oil, despite overall market transactions being limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the PX price rose and then retraced. The absolute price on Friday was down 0.9% week - on - week to $849/ton CFR, but the weekly average price still increased slightly by 1.4% to $855/ton CFR. The PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on more unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and its social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production facilities. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually recovering [2]. - The PTA spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis is weakening, which is negative for market sentiment. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost the price. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream's bullish expectation has increased. The industrial chain profit is shifting towards the raw material segment, and PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5880 - 6030 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The bottle - chip supply side has a stable - to - falling price offer, and the downstream is cautious. The overall production reduction of the supply side has not changed significantly, and the market spot supply is abundant [2]. - Currently, the pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.01/barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.12/barrel, down 0.73%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.38/ton, up 0.59%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $691.50/ton, up 0.29%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00/ton, up 0.04% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 4774 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4722 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4718 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4776 yuan/ton, down 1.34%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4740 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $634.00/ton, down 0.47% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the settlement price was 6844 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6702 yuan/ton, down 2.53%; the settlement price was 6866 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The domestic PX spot price was 6738 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The PXN spread was $251.63/ton, down 1.24%; the PX - MX spread was $157.50/ton, down 1.05% [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the settlement price was 5954 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5836 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the settlement price was 5832 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5960 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 29, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6540 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On August 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, up 2.21 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 70.76%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 1.12 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.09%, up 1.16 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 41.62%, down 1.77 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45.86%, up 5.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 77.76%, up 35.24 percentage points [1]. Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with an intraday trading volume of 602,600 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with an intraday trading volume of 270,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with an intraday trading volume of 60,500 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (three stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend with good investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry is generally weak, with prices of most products under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances and other factors [2][3][5] - Different sub - industries have their own supply - demand characteristics, and price trends are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and inventory levels [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed down. Tight supply - demand and pre - stocking by downstream due to upcoming events support price hikes, but limited by downstream profit compression [2] - Polyolefin futures had narrow - range fluctuations. Polyethylene supply pressure eased with increased maintenance, while polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak [2] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to fall. Domestic supply increased, demand was weak, and the BZ - NAP spread narrowed. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [3] - Styrene futures closed down. With weak raw material support and sufficient supply, there is still room for price decline without effective trading volume growth [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated. Terminal demand is rising, but the actual improvement is limited, and they are expected to continue range - bound [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded to the top of the range, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, and it is expected to maintain range - bound [5] - Short fiber supply - demand is stable, and prices mainly follow costs. There is a positive outlook for the peak season, and long - position allocation can be considered if demand improves [5] - Bottle chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure, and the processing margin is low [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol futures had low - level fluctuations. Port inventory reached a high, and the supply is expected to increase after the end of autumn maintenance. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and the restart of MTO plants [6] - Urea futures had a weak performance. Spot trading improved slightly, but supply is high, and there is a risk of price fluctuations due to export news [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices weakened. With new capacity coming online and weak demand, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - Caustic soda prices fell from a high. Although there is support from demand, the supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to face pressure at high levels [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened. Supply decreased slightly, but inventory is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [8] - Glass futures rose due to delivery. Spot price decline slowed down, and there is a possibility of price support during the peak season [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply surplus pattern of nickel remains unchanged, and with the cost approaching, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, being easily affected by macro news [3]. - For stainless steel, although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound [4]. 3. Market Analysis Nickel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2510 opened at 121,220 yuan/ton and closed at 120,990 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous trading day. It fluctuated weakly around the 20 - day moving average, with a daily fluctuation range of 930 yuan/ton, 40% smaller than the previous day. Affected by the 0.26% decline of LME Nickel 3 to $15,240/ton, Shanghai nickel followed the decline, but the decline was smaller than that of the external market [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the price remains stable. In September, 1.3% nickel ore resources in China and Indonesia CIF42 have completed transactions. The mine - end quotation in the Philippines remains firm. The new transaction price of downstream nickel iron is 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the bullish sentiment is strengthening. The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia in September (Phase I) is expected to drop by $0.2 - 0.3, and the premium is expected to remain at +24. The current supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and Indonesian iron plants mostly stock up as needed [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market transaction of refined nickel has improved, and the premium of each brand of refined nickel has been slightly adjusted down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,013 (- 12.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,676 (456) tons [2]. Stainless Steel - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2510 opened at 12,825 yuan/ton and closed at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. It showed the characteristics of falling price, shrinking volume, and a stalemate between long and short positions. The daily fluctuation range was only 105 yuan/ton, 30% smaller than the previous day. The trading volume decreased by about 13,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,188 lots, indicating a decline in market activity [3]. - **Spot**: As the futures market is still in the bottom - building process, the spot market is also weakening, and the spot quotation has been adjusted down. However, the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the transaction situation has not improved. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,025 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is also 13,025 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 320 - 470 yuan/ton [3]. 4. Strategy Nickel - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the cost is approaching. In the short term, nickel prices are mainly in a fluctuating market and are easily affected by macro news. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel - **Supply - demand situation**: Although the demand in the traditional peak season has not shown explosive growth, the social inventory has decreased for 7 consecutive weeks. Affected by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and rising raw material prices, the price may stop falling and rebound. - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Report Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a three-star rating (★★★) for Iron Ore, Coking Coal, indicating a clear long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity; a white-star rating for Steel, Coke, Manganese Silicon, and Ferrosilicon, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability and a need for observation [1]. Core Views - The steel market faces negative feedback pressure, but with low inventory levels and approaching peak season, the market may stabilize with cost support. Iron ore supply and demand are marginally weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at high levels. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations and have high short-term volatility. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are following market trends, with relatively weak rebound strength [2][3][4]. Summary by Industry Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. Rebar apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot-rolled coil demand and production declined slightly, with inventory also rising. Pig iron production remained high, facing negative feedback pressure, but low inventory limited the downside. With the approaching peak season, construction material demand is expected to pick up, and the market may stabilize [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose today. Global shipments declined from the high but remained stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventory was volatile with no obvious accumulation pressure. Terminal demand improved seasonally, and although steel mill profitability weakened, there was no strong will to cut production. With the approaching parade, there were expectations of policy-driven production cuts. Overall, supply and demand are weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3]. Coke - Coke prices rebounded today. With a major event approaching, coking plants in East China are expected to cut production. Pig iron production remained high, and steelmaking profits were good. After the eighth round of price increases, coking profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Overall inventory increased slightly, and trader purchasing意愿 decreased. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded today. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and spot auction results weakened. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total inventory increased. With the resumption of previously shut-down mines, production-side inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [6]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Attention is on the shipping of South32's Australian mines. Pig iron production remained above 240, and weekly production of manganese silicon increased. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly, but due to pre-event stockpiling, prices are expected to have limited downside [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Pig iron production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply increased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. The market is following the trend of manganese silicon [8].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic supply of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is expected to decrease due to high raw material costs and tight supply, alongside a reduction in imports [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of August 28, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in major domestic consumption areas reached 37,525 tons, an increase of 2,380 tons compared to the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the closing settlement on August 28, 2025, the price fluctuation limit for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts will be adjusted to 5% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - New Lake Futures noted that the recycled aluminum alloy market has not shown significant improvement, with high prices suppressing downstream purchasing willingness. Inventory continues to rise under stable production conditions, exerting pressure on prices. However, the rising scrap aluminum prices provide strong cost support, suggesting that aluminum alloy prices may experience short-term fluctuations [2] - Guoxin Futures highlighted that the price of raw scrap aluminum is on an upward trend, with supply remaining tight, which raises the cost support for aluminum alloys. Downstream demand has not shown significant recovery, leading to high inventory pressure. Additionally, some companies in Anhui and Jiangxi have reportedly reduced or halted production, which may marginally decrease output and support both spot and futures prices. Overall, attention should be paid to aluminum price fluctuations and the realization of seasonal demand, with a medium-term outlook suggesting a potentially strong oscillation for aluminum alloys [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. For individual products, most are rated as "oscillating", including iron ore, coke,焦煤, glass,纯碱, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After about a week of decline, the black building materials entered the lower end of the valuation range. With supply constraints on furnace materials and expectations of stricter safety supervision, prices rebounded significantly. As the off - peak and peak seasons are approaching, the apparent demand for steel remains weak, but it's not yet the time to verify terminal demand. With low inventory pressure in each link of the black industry chain and in the pre - peak season restocking window, prices are expected to have a small rebound space. Attention should be paid to future demand performance and furnace material supply recovery [2]. - Overall, after consecutive days of decline, black prices have fallen near the cost support level, and demand negatives have been gradually digested. With supply disturbances in furnace materials and downstream restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebound. However, the weak expectation of peak - season terminal demand remains, suppressing the upside space. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Core Logic: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to last year's level, with relatively stable total supply. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly, and the end - of - month production restrictions have limited impact, so iron ore demand is expected to remain high. In terms of inventory, the iron ore ports destocked this week, with a slight decrease in total inventory. There are limited bearish drivers in the fundamentals, and the price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited bearish fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and other factors. For example, a 3 - million - ton low - sulfur lean primary coking coal mine in Xiangning, Linfen, Shanxi has been shut down for three days. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles, but there was a short - term decline in the past two days due to the Mongolian customs system. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, showing regional differentiation. In some areas, coking production is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and spot transactions have weakened. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. - Outlook: With continuous supply disturbances and difficult significant supply increase before the parade, short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [13]. 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, and the black sector was strong, with manganese silicon oscillating strongly. Manganese silicon manufacturers stocked up on raw materials before the parade, and the restocking is nearly over. With increased arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has weakened from its high level. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and finished product output remains high. Under the environment of industry profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be downward pressure on the manganese silicon price [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is controllable, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward space for the manganese silicon price is limited. But in the medium - to - long - term, as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction in raw material costs [17]. 3.3.2 Silicon Iron - Core Logic: The current market inventory pressure of silicon iron is not large. In the short - term, the silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the supply - demand gap will gradually be filled, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The upside space of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is not large, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward adjustment space for the silicon iron price is limited. But the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move down. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18][20]. 3.4 Glass - Core Logic: After the glass futures price fell, the sentiment in the spot market declined, with mid - stream shipments and a significant decline in upstream production and sales. On the supply side, there is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream has slightly accumulated inventory, with no prominent self - contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the rising coal price has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [3]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still gives a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. 3.5 Steel - Core Logic: There are still contraction disturbances in the supply of coking coal and iron ore. Under the background of high pig iron production, the cost has an upward driving force, and the disk has strong support. The overall spot steel transactions are average, mainly at low prices, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Last week, the production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. As the off - peak season ends, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade. The apparent demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains highly resilient, and inventory continues to accumulate under high production. The supply - demand fluctuations of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are limited, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products increasing, and the inventory accumulation speed slowing down [8]. - Outlook: As the off - peak season ends, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. Both supply and demand will be affected before and after the parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The pre - parade restocking of raw materials may end. Recently, there are continuous disturbances in the cost supply side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely. Future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.6 Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, combined with continuous rumors of production restrictions and strengthened cost support from coking coal, coke prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1480 yuan/ton (+10). On the supply side, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, and coking enterprise profits have quickly recovered. As the parade approaches, coking production in some areas is gradually restricted, while others maintain normal production. On the demand side, downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Affected by the parade, transportation in some areas is restricted, so local steel mill inventories are still low, and some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. Currently, the inventory of upstream coking enterprises is still at a low level, and under simultaneous production restrictions on coking and steel, the short - term supply - demand remains tight [12]. - Outlook: As the parade approaches, the expectation of coke production restrictions may be stronger than that of steel mills. The short - term tight supply situation will continue. With the start of the eighth round of price increases and strengthened cost support from coking coal, the short - term disk has strong support [12]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average tax - excluded price of crushed scrap in East China is 2174 (+5) yuan/ton, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference in East China is 1032 (+24) yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of demand, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished products recently. The profit and loss of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours in East China is at a tight balance, and there are losses in many other areas during off - peak hours. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces has decreased month - on - month. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has slightly increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also slightly increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory has slightly increased, and the available inventory days have dropped to a relatively low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low electric arc furnace profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [10]. 3.8 Sodium Carbonate - Core Logic: The delivered price of heavy - quality sodium carbonate in Shahe is 1230 - 1280 yuan/ton (-). The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term suppression. The production is at a high level, and supply pressure remains. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, heavy - quality sodium carbonate is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the float glass daily melting volume is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out initially, currently at 86,500 tons. The demand for heavy - quality sodium carbonate is flat. In the light - quality sodium carbonate sector, downstream procurement is flat, but the overall downstream restocking sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Sentiment affects the disk. As the shipping problem eases, mid - stream inventory accumulates, and downstream acceptance is weak [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. After the disk price drops, there is a small increase in spot - futures transactions. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices fluctuated upward this week due to cost support. International oil prices showed a slight upward - fluctuating trend, and the domestic PX devices operated stably. The demand side of PTA performed well, and the polyester industry maintained high - level operation. Also, news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea and petrochemical industry policy news boosted the PX price [9]. - PTA prices went up due to cost support and unplanned device shutdowns. The news of possible naphtha production cuts in South Korea pushed up the PX market, which was beneficial to PTA. A 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China shut down unexpectedly, leading to inventory reduction from August to September. Traders were reluctant to sell, and the spot basis strengthened. Meanwhile, the polyester industry gradually increased its operation rate in anticipation of the peak demand season [9]. 2.2 Future Market Forecast - Strategy recommendation: Stay on the sidelines. - Crude oil: Geopolitical conflicts will increase market uncertainty, and the market will mainly choose to wait and see. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. - PX: A total of 1.6 - million - ton PX devices in South China are planned to start operation successively this week. The rigid demand for spot purchases from newly - put - into - operation PTA devices will support PX demand. - PTA: A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China will restart, but it cannot offset the impact of the shutdown of a 5 - million - ton PTA device in South China. In addition, the low processing fees of PTA continue, and there may be other unplanned device overhauls. - Polyester: There is no clear plan for polyester device overhauls next week. As the traditional peak demand season approaches, manufacturers' tolerance for inventory increases, and the market supply pressure of polyester factories will be low in the future. - Weaving: Demand is marginally improving, and there are expectations for the peak season. - Overall: PX will fluctuate strongly in the range of 6,850 - 7,050 yuan/ton; PTA will also fluctuate strongly in the range of 4,750 - 4,950 yuan/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Main Sections of the Report 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX Futures - The news of naphtha production cuts in South Korea boosted the PX futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PX main contract rose from 6,688 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 278 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.16%. The settlement price rose from 6,682 yuan/ton to 6,966 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 4.25%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 171 yuan/ton; the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,689.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.44% [15][17][19]. 3.1.2 PTA Futures - The unplanned device overhauls boosted the PTA futures price. From August 15th to August 22nd, the closing price of the PTA main contract rose from 4,716 yuan/ton to 4,868 yuan/ton, an increase of 152 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.20%. The settlement price rose from 4,708 yuan/ton to 4,864 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 3.34%. - From August 18th to August 22nd, the average basis of the main contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.55%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,744.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan/ton compared with the previous period, with a change rate of 1.35% [21][23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Device - Domestic PX device operation: Devices of many enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical are operating at different loads. Some devices have experienced load changes, shutdowns, and restarts. - Asian other PX device operation: Devices of enterprises in many countries and regions such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and South Korea have different operation statuses, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and load changes. - The domestic PX device operating rate has recovered. From August 18th to August 22nd, it was 85.22%, compared with 84.97% from August 11th to August 15th [31][33][35]. 3.2.2 PTA Device - Multiple PTA devices are under maintenance, including those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Fuhai Chuang. The planned maintenance period ranges from several months to more than a month. - Unplanned device overhauls have led to a slight price increase, and the weekly operating rate has decreased by 1.21% [38][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Affected by the Russia - Ukraine conflict, international oil prices fluctuated this week. On August 22nd, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 63.66 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.86 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was 67.22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.37 US dollars/ton compared with August 15th. - Naphtha: The average weekly CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 578.45 US dollars/ton, and the average weekly production profit was 49.78 US dollars/ton. The supply in Asia has generally shrunk, and demand has been supported, leading to an increase in prices. - PX spot: The average weekly CFR price of PX in the Chinese main port was 843.36 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.55% compared with the previous period; the average weekly FOB price in South Korea was 819 US dollars/ton, a change of 1.61% compared with the previous period. The trading volume increased by 65,000 tons compared with the previous period [46][54][57]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The weekly average value of PXN was 265.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of 2.13%. The PX - MX continued to rise, with a weekly average value of 135.50 US dollars/ton. - PTA processing fee: From August 18th to August 22nd, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 202.93 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the previous week's average of 206.76 yuan/ton. It has not returned to the industry's average break - even point. - Inventory: As of August 22nd, the PTA social inventory was 4.468 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons compared with the previous week, with a change rate of - 0.58%. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories have increased. As of August 21st, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 3.71 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days [60][64][69]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The prices of some polyester products such as semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased. The average weekly polyester production and sales rate from August 18th to August 22nd was estimated to be 60%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 87.17%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.45%. - Weaving: The downstream has replenished inventory due to price expectations. The inventory of filament yarn has continued to transfer downward. As of August 21st, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 13.80 days, 22.70 days, and 27.80 days respectively. The domestic weaving market has gradually started, but the export orders are still relatively dull. The profit of grey fabric production has been compressed, but it is expected to improve in the future [76][82][90].

从黑色系期货盘面来看，黑色整体窄幅收跌，最终跌幅都回到1%以内，除了热卷外，焦煤、焦炭品种 较夜盘有所起色。具体来看，螺纹主力10合约收3119，日跌11个点，较上周五收盘跌69个点，周结算价 3139，较上周跌83个点。最新持仓141万手，日减2.6万手，较上周五减仓20.7万手。资金陆续撤离10合 约，减仓缩量，价格缺乏驱动，因此下周10合约仍难以走出3050-3250震荡大区间。周线看，暂时收在 20周线上方，下周继续关注3100附近的支撑情况，日线以内小级别周期有小幅反弹行情，上方周线压力 3165附近需关注。 从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，但铁水产量略有增 加，而品种产量表现不一。需求端：由于区域限产的逐步落地，区域物流受限，同时淡季效应依然明 显，市场成交明显减弱。成本端：由于铁矿石价格稳中下滑，废钢价格稳中下滑，焦炭价格维持平稳， 使得生产成本支撑力度减弱。因此兰格钢铁研究中心预计在外部环境严峻复杂、经济运行稳中有进、限 产政策逐渐落地、供给释放由强转弱、淡季效应依然明显、成本支撑力度减弱的影响下，下周 （2025.8.25-8.29）国内钢市或将震荡 ...