Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of China's foreign trade amidst unprecedented uncertainty caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration, with a steady growth trend observed in the first five months of 2025 [1] Trade Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with May's trade value at 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In May, China's export value was 2.28 trillion yuan, slightly up from 2.27 trillion yuan in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in USD terms, indicating strong economic resilience despite a decline in growth rate [1] Export Product Structure - The export product structure shows a divergence, with upstream raw materials, mobile phones, and home appliances experiencing weaker exports, while labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and toys improved due to mature supply chains and production capabilities [2] - The export of electromechanical products remained robust, with integrated circuit exports showing significant growth, reflecting advancements in high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrades [2] Trade Partners - ASEAN, EU, and the US are the top three trading partners, with a decline in "rush exports" to emerging economies. Exports to the US decreased, with the share of US exports in China's total exports dropping from 10.46% in April to 9.12% in May [3] - Despite the decline in direct exports to the US, strong performance in exports to non-US countries has helped mitigate some of the impacts, with signs of recovery in exports to the US observed in late May [3] EU and Africa Trade - Exports to the EU grew by 12.02% year-on-year and 5.97% month-on-month in May, supported by marginal recovery in the Eurozone manufacturing sector [4] - Trade with Africa reached a historical high in the first five months, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.34% year-on-year, highlighting the importance of diversifying trade [4] Import Performance - In May, China's imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, with a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD. Imports from the US saw a significant decline due to tariff policies [5] - Imports from the EU showed improvement, recovering from a -16.5% decline in April to near 0 in May, reflecting deepening economic cooperation [5] - The decline in imports of major commodities like crude oil and iron ore indicates that domestic investment and industrial demand have not fully recovered, while imports of data processing equipment maintained high growth [5] Future Outlook - The article suggests that despite the complex global trade environment, China's foreign trade is expected to continue steady growth supported by ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade [5]

Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. as May exports show a decline due to the retreat of "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year [3][53]. Export Analysis - May exports fell by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base and a decline in exports to ASEAN (-6.0 percentage points to 15.1%) and India (-9.2 percentage points to 12.7%) [3][10]. - The export growth of midstream manufacturing remains high but shows a marginal decline, with energy resource exports dropping significantly, from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5% in May, respectively [3][17]. - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with May exports to the U.S. declining by 13.5 percentage points to -34.4%, but certain categories like toys (+5.4 percentage points to -1.1%) and clothing (+3.7 percentage points to 2.5%) show recovery [4][19]. Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from emerging markets to the U.S. for "export grabbing," with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][29]. - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S. in late May, and a seasonal price increase in Yiwu small commodities [4][29]. Import Analysis - May imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports, with copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%) all showing decreases [6][56]. - The import growth of electromechanical products saw a slight increase (+0.1 percentage points to 5.5%), while bulk commodity imports declined significantly [6][44]. Sector-Specific Trends - In consumer goods, the export growth of consumer electronics increased (+1.5 percentage points to 3.8%), while light industrial products and real estate chain goods saw declines [5][55]. - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports showed divergence, with ship exports rising (+7.6 percentage points to 43.7%) while general machinery exports fell (-11.4 percentage points to 5.6%) [5][35]. - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. down (-13.5 percentage points to -34.4%) while exports to the UK increased (+13.1 percentage points to 15.8%) [5][40].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in freight rates and the significant increase in export orders, questioning whether this new wave of "export rush" can sustain the rising freight rates [1] Group 1: Freight Rates - Freight rates have doubled recently, indicating a strong demand in the shipping industry [1] - The increase in freight rates is attributed to a surge in export orders, suggesting a potential trend in the market [1] Group 2: Export Orders - There has been a notable spike in export orders, which may contribute to the sustainability of the current freight rate increases [1] - The article raises concerns about whether this "export rush" can maintain the momentum of rising freight rates in the long term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].

Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in April, while imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.2% in April[2] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $21.85 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient in June to Q3 due to tariff reductions and pre-Christmas orders, but the overall external demand is still slowing down[2] Export and Import Trends - May exports totaled $316.10 billion, a historical high for the month, but the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the four-year average of 3.48%[2] - The overall external demand is below the boom-bust line, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6% in May, indicating a contraction[2] - Imports in May were $212.88 billion, the lowest for the same month since 2021, with a month-on-month decline of 3%[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU increased by 12.02%, up 3.75 percentage points from April, while exports to the US fell significantly by 34.52%[2] - The ASEAN region saw a decline in exports by 14.84%, reflecting the impact of "export grabbing" on demand[2] Product-Specific Insights - Key products like integrated circuits and automobiles showed significant recovery, while labor-intensive products like toys and footwear remained at low levels due to tariff impacts[2] - The import of crude oil saw a decline of 22.1% year-on-year, while imports of grains and soybeans increased significantly, reflecting a shift in demand[3]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. [3][51] - In May, exports fell year-on-year due to a decline in "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year, with a decrease of 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% [3][51] - Exports to ASEAN and India showed significant declines, indicating a retreat from previous "export grabbing" trends in emerging economies [3][51] Export Analysis - The old clues of "export grabbing" through emerging countries are declining, with midstream manufacturing exports showing a marginal decrease and energy resource exports declining significantly [3][15] - In May, exports of midstream manufacturing and energy resources fell from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5%, respectively [3][15] - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with specific products like toys and clothing showing recovery in export growth [4][19] Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from "export grabbing" in emerging economies to the U.S., with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][27] - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for small commodities from Yiwu [4][27] Import Analysis - In May, import growth fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports [6][54] - Specific imports such as copper, crude oil, and iron ore showed significant declines, reflecting a notable drop in domestic investment demand, particularly in traditional infrastructure [6][54] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight recovery, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5% [6][54] Regional Export Trends - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. dropping significantly [5][38] - Exports to non-U.S. developed countries, such as the UK and the EU, saw some recovery, while exports to emerging economies also declined [5][38] - Notably, exports to Africa increased, contrasting with declines in exports to Latin America and ASEAN [5][38]

Export Data Analysis - In May, exports (in USD) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[7] - The decline in exports is attributed to the retreat of the "export grabbing" phenomenon and a high base effect from the previous year[8] - Exports to ASEAN and India fell significantly, with declines of 6.0 percentage points to 15.1% and 9.2 percentage points to 12.7%, respectively[2] - The export growth rate for midstream manufacturing products decreased from 7.4% in April to 6.3% in May, while energy resource exports dropped from 1.3% to -3.5%[15] Import Data Analysis - Imports (in USD) fell by 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[5] - The decline in imports was primarily driven by a drop in bulk commodity imports, including copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%)[42] - Mechanical and electrical product imports saw a slight increase, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 5.5%[5] Future Outlook - The shift in "export grabbing" is expected to transition from emerging markets to the U.S., with June exports likely to receive some support[23] - Key indicators for June include positive processing trade import growth of 2.4% in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S., and rising prices for Yiwu small commodities[23] - The necessity for further "export grabbing" is anticipated to decrease as the suspension period for equal tariffs on emerging countries approaches its end[23]

金十数据6月10日讯，中信证券研报称，结合集装箱运价、订单量等数据，预计在中美关税暂缓期内， 新一轮"抢出口"有望开启，对整体的出口表现形成支撑。从进出口份额视角来看，美国占我国出口份额 出现显著降幅，美墨之间的关税冲突同样影响到了我国出口商品经墨西哥的转口贸易，未来东盟和欧盟 或将继续作为我国出口韧性的主要来源。 中信证券：新一轮"抢出口"有望开启 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 5 月出口，高关税阴影犹存 据海关总署，2025年5月出口总值为3161亿美元，同比增长4.8%，低于市场预期的6.2%和4月的8.1%； 进口总值为 2129 亿美元，同比-3.4%，预期 0.31%，前值-0.2%。5 月以来，中美贸易关系缓和，第一轮谈判后 中美互相大幅降低关税，当前美国对华关税仍维持在 30%之上。如何看待 5 月份进出口数据？ 一是对美出口继续下降，暂未反映贸易缓和。5 月对美出口同比降 34.6%，拖累出口同比 5 个百分点。对美 出口进一步大幅下降，或仍在继续反映 4 月美国对中国征收 145%高额关税的影响。不过，5 月以来，中美贸易 关系逐渐缓和，5 月 12 日中美会谈结束后发布日内瓦联合声明，中美之间关税税率超预期大幅下降，关税下调 于 5 月 14 日正式生效。6 月 5 日晚间，中美最高领导人通话，同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识，并约定尽 快举行新一轮会谈。 伴随中美关系缓和，中国对美出口的恢复有望体现在 6 月数据。5 月中旬暂停加征关税后，市场迅速 ...