Group 1: Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth slightly decreased to 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weakened export activities influenced by tariff fluctuations[12] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 2.7%, with real estate investment declining by 12%[21] - Retail sales growth increased to 6.4%, indicating enhanced consumer momentum, with service retail sales rising to 5.2%[26] Group 2: Real Estate Market - National real estate sales area growth rate dropped to -3.3%, with a two-year average growth rate narrowing to -12.4%[29] - New housing sales area growth rate continued to decline, while prices for new and second-hand homes showed a narrowing year-on-year decline[30] - Construction area growth rebounded significantly, but new construction area growth remained at -19.3%[30] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumption rebounded due to the combination of trade-in subsidies and increased holiday spending, with inbound tourism transactions increasing by 2.4 times in number and 1.3 times in value[13] - The growth rates for essential and discretionary consumer goods reached 8.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with two-year average growth rates also rising[26] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - External demand is expected to weaken as tariff exemptions expire, potentially impacting production and investment[13] - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a steady employment situation despite economic fluctuations[33]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for May indicates a slight decline in industrial production, a rebound in consumption, and a comprehensive drop in investment, with real estate continuing to decline [1][15]. Demand Side Analysis - External demand is significantly impacted by tariff fluctuations, leading to a continued decline in exports to the U.S., while transshipment trade and European recovery support exports in a mid-high range [1][2]. - Domestic investment is broadly declining, influenced by weak real estate and infrastructure investments, while consumption is showing signs of recovery due to trade-in programs and consumption festivals [1][2]. Production Side Analysis - Industrial production growth rate fell to 5.8% year-on-year in May, primarily due to tariff disruptions affecting export strength [3]. - The service production index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% year-on-year, benefiting from the recovery in consumption [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [5][14]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, with information services and aerospace manufacturing seeing substantial year-on-year growth [9]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth rose to 6.4% in May, indicating enhanced consumption momentum, with significant contributions from home appliance and communication sectors benefiting from trade-in programs [10]. - Service consumption also showed recovery, with tourism-related growth accelerating and restaurant income increasing [10]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate fell to -3.3% year-on-year, with new housing sales declining while prices continue to rise [14]. - The construction area growth rate rebounded significantly, although new construction area growth remains negative [14]. Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0%, indicating a stable employment situation despite external disruptions [15]. - There is cautious optimism regarding external demand, with potential benefits from future tariff negotiations and European recovery efforts [15].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行。 内需： 地产需求疲软，汽车有所改善；节后服务消费热度减退。 ①新房和乘用车回升、二手房走弱，家电月均销售价同比增速多数下跌。6月新房销量增速降幅略有收窄，而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售由降 转升、而批发有所回落，半钢胎开工率回升。本周家电销售均价多数回升，6月月均销售价同比增速多数下跌。 ②节后服务消费热度减退。节后第一周，电影票房收入下降，同比增速再度转负，酒店平均每间可售房收入续降，同比降幅走扩；商圈人流指数延续小幅下行，但 同比增速略升；在天气因素的叠加影响下，本周上海迪士尼乐园客流明显下降，同比降幅有所走扩。 外需： "抢出口"力度趋弱，美国加征钢制家电关税。 ①6月高频出口数量指标全线回落，运价同比增速大幅下行，指向出口整体放缓。 ②由于担心7月对等关税到期的不确定性，美国集装箱预订有所回落，中国至美国集装箱到港周同比降至低位，而传统转口贸易地区港口停靠量周同比同样回落至 低位，指向整体抢出口力度趋弱。 ③韩国6月前10天出口同比增速回升，品类中半导体和船拉动明显。美对多种钢制家用电器加征50%的关税。 ②中东局势恶化 ...

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of preemptive export orders on future export performance, suggesting that while there may be a decline in export growth, the overall resilience of Chinese manufacturing remains intact due to limited overdraw and significant contributions from incremental demand [1]. Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impact - The surge in exports began in November 2024, coinciding with Trump's election victory, leading to a significant increase in exports to the U.S. [2] - In February 2025, a decrease in export activity was noted due to lower-than-expected tariffs on fentanyl, resulting in a notable drop in export growth [2] - By March 2025, renewed expectations of large-scale tariffs led to another wave of preemptive exports [2][3] Group 2: Measurement of Export Overdraw - The analysis of export growth from November 2024 to April 2025 indicates that approximately half of the elevated export growth was due to preemptive orders, while the other half stemmed from genuine incremental orders [4] - A simulation of the scenario post-preemptive orders suggests that while there may be a significant drop in export growth for overdrawn orders, exports to other regions are expected to remain stable [4] Group 3: Future Export Growth Outlook - The overall export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the trend remains stable, with potential impacts from a slowdown in the U.S. economy [5] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate, suggesting a baseline export growth rate of around 2.7% for the third quarter [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of China's foreign trade amidst unprecedented uncertainty caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration, with a steady growth trend observed in the first five months of 2025 [1] Trade Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with May's trade value at 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In May, China's export value was 2.28 trillion yuan, slightly up from 2.27 trillion yuan in April, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in USD terms, indicating strong economic resilience despite a decline in growth rate [1] Export Product Structure - The export product structure shows a divergence, with upstream raw materials, mobile phones, and home appliances experiencing weaker exports, while labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and toys improved due to mature supply chains and production capabilities [2] - The export of electromechanical products remained robust, with integrated circuit exports showing significant growth, reflecting advancements in high-end manufacturing and industrial upgrades [2] Trade Partners - ASEAN, EU, and the US are the top three trading partners, with a decline in "rush exports" to emerging economies. Exports to the US decreased, with the share of US exports in China's total exports dropping from 10.46% in April to 9.12% in May [3] - Despite the decline in direct exports to the US, strong performance in exports to non-US countries has helped mitigate some of the impacts, with signs of recovery in exports to the US observed in late May [3] EU and Africa Trade - Exports to the EU grew by 12.02% year-on-year and 5.97% month-on-month in May, supported by marginal recovery in the Eurozone manufacturing sector [4] - Trade with Africa reached a historical high in the first five months, with exports to Africa increasing by 33.34% year-on-year, highlighting the importance of diversifying trade [4] Import Performance - In May, China's imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, with a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD. Imports from the US saw a significant decline due to tariff policies [5] - Imports from the EU showed improvement, recovering from a -16.5% decline in April to near 0 in May, reflecting deepening economic cooperation [5] - The decline in imports of major commodities like crude oil and iron ore indicates that domestic investment and industrial demand have not fully recovered, while imports of data processing equipment maintained high growth [5] Future Outlook - The article suggests that despite the complex global trade environment, China's foreign trade is expected to continue steady growth supported by ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade [5]

Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]

Core Viewpoint - The role of "export grabbing" is shifting from emerging markets to the U.S. as May exports show a decline due to the retreat of "export grabbing" and a high base effect from the previous year [3][53]. Export Analysis - May exports fell by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by a high base and a decline in exports to ASEAN (-6.0 percentage points to 15.1%) and India (-9.2 percentage points to 12.7%) [3][10]. - The export growth of midstream manufacturing remains high but shows a marginal decline, with energy resource exports dropping significantly, from 7.4% and 1.3% in April to 6.3% and -3.5% in May, respectively [3][17]. - There are emerging signs of "export grabbing" towards the U.S., with May exports to the U.S. declining by 13.5 percentage points to -34.4%, but certain categories like toys (+5.4 percentage points to -1.1%) and clothing (+3.7 percentage points to 2.5%) show recovery [4][19]. Future Outlook - In June, the focus is expected to shift from emerging markets to the U.S. for "export grabbing," with overall export growth likely to receive some support [4][29]. - Three indicators suggest continued "export grabbing": positive year-on-year growth in processing trade imports in May, a surge in container bookings from the U.S. in late May, and a seasonal price increase in Yiwu small commodities [4][29]. Import Analysis - May imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in bulk commodity imports, with copper (-18.6% to 5.8%), crude oil (-8.2% to -0.8%), and iron ore (-5.1% to -3.8%) all showing decreases [6][56]. - The import growth of electromechanical products saw a slight increase (+0.1 percentage points to 5.5%), while bulk commodity imports declined significantly [6][44]. Sector-Specific Trends - In consumer goods, the export growth of consumer electronics increased (+1.5 percentage points to 3.8%), while light industrial products and real estate chain goods saw declines [5][55]. - Capital goods and intermediate goods exports showed divergence, with ship exports rising (+7.6 percentage points to 43.7%) while general machinery exports fell (-11.4 percentage points to 5.6%) [5][35]. - Exports to major economies showed a general decline, with exports to the U.S. down (-13.5 percentage points to -34.4%) while exports to the UK increased (+13.1 percentage points to 15.8%) [5][40].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in freight rates and the significant increase in export orders, questioning whether this new wave of "export rush" can sustain the rising freight rates [1] Group 1: Freight Rates - Freight rates have doubled recently, indicating a strong demand in the shipping industry [1] - The increase in freight rates is attributed to a surge in export orders, suggesting a potential trend in the market [1] Group 2: Export Orders - There has been a notable spike in export orders, which may contribute to the sustainability of the current freight rate increases [1] - The article raises concerns about whether this "export rush" can maintain the momentum of rising freight rates in the long term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in export growth in May 2025 is attributed to the peak and subsequent decline of tariff expectations, revealing the impact of tariffs on exports. However, exports still show resilience despite the expected drop in the export central tendency [1][5]. Overall Summary - In May 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 4.8% (previously 8.1%), while import growth was -3.4% (previously -0.2%). Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% compared to April, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels [2]. Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025 [3]. Export Structure - By country, the export growth rates to the US, ASEAN, and Latin America saw significant declines, recording -34.5%, 14.8%, and 2.3% respectively. In contrast, exports to other regions increased to 11.8% (previously 10.4%). In terms of product structure, agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw a notable decline, while machinery and raw materials remained relatively stable. Notably, exports of integrated circuits and ships in the machinery sector continued to perform strongly, with a resurgence in automotive exports [4]. Divergent Interpretations of Export Data - Optimists argue that the strong performance in April (8.1%) despite high tariffs suggests a rebound in May following the tariff easing on May 14, predicting a significant export rebound in June. Conversely, pessimists believe that the resilience in April was due to preemptive exports before the tariff implementation, and the decline in May indicates a depletion of future orders. The article concludes that the decline in May's export growth is a result of the cooling of preemptive exports and the impact of tariffs, but previous preemptive and transshipment trade has not significantly depleted future orders. Looking ahead, short-term indicators suggest that June's export growth may be supported by the easing of tariffs, while a normalization of exports is expected, leading to a gradual decline in export momentum without a drastic drop [5].