2025年07月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 10 | | PP：现货下跌，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：现货降价未结束，但需关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘偏弱震荡，短期波动下降 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：降价拐点延后，08震荡整理；逢高布空10 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with good planting and growth conditions in the US, while domestic soybean meal has good demand but obvious inventory pressure [4][6]. - Raw sugar has declined due to the expected increase in global supply, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively in the short term [12]. - Palm oil is in the stage of production increase and inventory accumulation, domestic soybean oil is in a phased inventory - building period, and rapeseed oil has a pattern of oversupply but strong bottom support [20]. - US corn has good growth conditions, and domestic corn supply is relatively scarce, with spot prices expected to be strong in the short term and futures to fluctuate narrowly [27][29]. - The pig market's supply - side pressure has eased, and the overall price is expected to be weak [35]. - Peanut spot trading is scarce, and the 10 - contract peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may decline in the medium - to - long term [41]. - The profit of eggs per catty is in a loss or flat state, and the upward space of the 8 - 9 - month contracts depends on the amount of culled chickens [50]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples, and the apple futures price in July is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [54]. - The cotton market is affected by macro - trade policies and fundamentals. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数跌0.96%至1033.25美分/蒲，CBOT豆粕指数跌0.42%至286.5美金/短吨 [2]. - **相关资讯**：美豆新作种植面积8340万英亩，6月1日美国大豆结转库存10.1亿蒲；美国大豆优良率66%，出苗率94%，开花率17%，结荚率3%；6月27日当周油厂大豆压榨量248.78万吨，开机率69.93%，大豆库存665.87万吨，豆粕库存69.16万吨 [2][3]. - **逻辑分析**：国际大豆供需宽松，美豆种植生长好但出口一般，巴西产量高卖货慢，阿根廷豆粕压力大；国内豆粕需求好但库存压力明显 [4][6]. - **策略建议**：单边低点少量布局多单，套利MRM09价差扩大，期权观望 [7]. Sugar - **外盘情况**：ICE美糖主力合约跌0.52（3.11%）至16.19美分/磅 [7]. - **重要资讯**：巴西中南部6月上半月甘蔗压榨量预计3987万吨，糖产量252万吨；国内产区白糖报价稳中上升；埃及2026年将实现食糖自给自足，2024/25榨季食糖产量260万吨 [8][9][11]. - **逻辑分析**：原糖受供应增加预期拖累下跌，国内产销节奏快支撑现货，但原糖弱势使配额外进口利润走高，加工糖供应压力将兑现 [12]. - **策略建议**：单边预计短期震荡，套利9 - 1价差止盈，期权虚值比例价差期权 [13][14][15]. Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：CBOT美豆油主力价格变动 - 0.45%至52.75美分/磅，BMD马棕油主力价格变动 - 0.15%至3981林吉特/吨 [17]. - **相关资讯**：马来西亚6月1 - 30日棕榈油出口量1382460吨，印尼7月毛棕榈油参考价上调；印度取消65000吨毛棕榈油进口订单；美国2025年6月1日大豆库存总量10.1亿蒲式耳，预计种植面积8340万英亩；美国4月用于生物燃料的豆油使用量降至8.29亿磅 [18][19]. - **逻辑分析**：USDA报告后美豆盘面涨跌互现，棕榈油增产累库，国内豆油阶段性累库，菜油供大于求但底部支撑强 [20]. - **交易策略**：单边短期油脂或震荡，回调后适当做多，套利观望，期权观望 [21][22][23]. Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘回落，12月主力合约回落0.3%，收盘425.0美分/蒲 [26]. - **重要资讯**：CBOT玉米期货收盘互有涨跌，反映美国玉米长势好且供应充足；巴西一茬玉米收割率95.4%，二茬玉米收割率17%；美国玉米优良率73%，吐丝率8%；7月1日北港收购价偏强，华北产区玉米稳定 [27][28]. - **逻辑分析**：美国季度报告持平，外盘玉米企稳，国内玉米供应少，现货相对偏强，09玉米企稳，期现价差缩小 [29]. - **交易策略**：单边外盘09玉米底部震荡，09玉米观望；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可谨慎考虑逢高累沽策略 [30][32][33]. Live Pigs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格震荡偏强，仔猪和母猪价格持平，6月30日全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格上升0.2% [35]. - **逻辑分析**：生猪市场前期规模企业出栏完成进度快，普通养殖户和二次育肥出栏积极性下降，大体重猪源供应减少 [35]. - **策略建议**：单边偏空思路为主，套利LH91正套，期权观望 [36][38]. Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生报价稳定，油厂到货和成交情况一般，花生油报价偏强，花生粕走货少；6月26日国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少6510吨，6月27日花生油库存减少150吨 [39][40]. - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生稳定，进口量减少，下游消费弱，预计新季种植面积增加，10花生短期偏强震荡，中长期有下跌空间 [41]. - **交易策略**：单边10花生逢高短空，套利观望，期权卖出pk510 - C - 8800期权 [43][44][45]. Eggs - **重要资讯**：全国主流鸡蛋价格多数稳定，部分地区有涨跌；5月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量13.34亿只，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量4698.5万羽；6月27日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量1841万只；6月26日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量上升5%；6月26日鸡蛋每斤周度平均盈利 - 0.41元/斤，6月27日蛋鸡养殖预期利润13.84元/羽 [47][48][49]. - **交易逻辑**：单斤鸡蛋利润亏损或持平，盘面期货价格向下空间受限，8、9月合约上涨空间取决于淘汰鸡量 [50]. - **交易策略**：单边梅雨季结束且安全边际高时在远月8、9月合约建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [51]. Apples - **重要资讯**：6月18日全国主产区苹果冷库库存量116.49万吨，走货速度环比持平同比减缓；5月鲜苹果进口量1.78万吨，出口量4.55万吨；产地主流成交价格稳定，冷库成交一般；山东烟台栖霞苹果主流价格平稳，2024 - 2025产季栖霞80一二级存储商利润0.9元/斤 [52][53]. - **交易逻辑**：本季苹果库存低支撑早熟苹果开称价格，陕西部分地区坐果略差，7月苹果期货价格大概率震荡略偏强 [54]. - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [55][56][57]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：ICE美棉主力合约跌1.28（1.85%）至68.04美分/磅 [58]. - **重要资讯**：预计美国2025年棉花实际播种面积1012万英亩；截至6月20日，ON - CALL 2512合约上卖方未点价合约增持，24/25年度卖方未点价合约总量减持；棉花现货局部交投略好，基差平稳，2025/26年度新疆新棉预售报价增多 [59][60]. - **交易逻辑**：棉花受中美贸易关系和基本面影响，郑棉短期预计震荡略偏强 [61]. - **交易策略**：单边美棉大概率震荡，郑棉短期震荡偏强，套利观望，期权卖出看跌期权 [61][63].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance in the non-ferrous metals market, influenced by supply and demand factors [1] - Copper prices in Shanghai rose to 78,415 yuan, with a narrowing premium in both Shanghai and Guangdong [1] - The aluminum market showed a decline, with an increase in inventory by 15,000 tons, indicating early signs of seasonal demand weakness [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing significant divergence, with concerns over supply disruptions easing following a ceasefire in Israel and Palestine [1] - The aluminum and casting aluminum alloy price gap remains large, while the price difference between AL_2511 and AD2511 is only around 400 yuan, suggesting potential trading opportunities [1] - Zinc supply continues to recover, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the zinc market despite recent price rebounds [1]

2025/06/16 -681.41 -1161.78 140 -25 130225 58075 2025/06/17 -797.78 -1366.18 140 -28 128875 58975 2025/06/18 -657.73 -1266.71 140 -30 128250 33150 2025/06/19 -583.20 -1068.47 140 -27 127475 33475 变化 74.53 198.24 0 3 -775 325 本周锌价震荡下跌，受累库预期及宏观扰动影响价格中枢下移。供应端，本周国内TC不变，进口TC小幅回升。6月相比 5月冶炼环比提升2.5万吨左右，矿端加工费月均预计提升150元/吨。需求端，内需边际走弱，华北和华南订单环比下 滑，但刚性仍存，绝对价格下跌过快时下游存在一定点价;海外，欧洲需求较弱，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一 定阻力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡，绝对价格下跌升水有抬升，但价格企稳后升水又出现回落，累库加速 拐点预计在六月中旬出现。海外LME库存基本保持不变，5月后震荡去化，主要由于海外锌锭较多流入国内。策略方 面，锌空配思路不变，反弹逢高沽空; ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-13 现货成交转淡，不锈钢横盘振荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-12日沪镍主力合约2507开于121200元/吨，收于120000元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.24%，当日成交量 为109748手，持仓量为85673手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘低开后快速下跌至12万附近后横盘振荡，日盘开盘后振荡反弹，午后破位下跌至12万，收大阴 线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。6月中国精炼镍预估产量37345吨，环比增加 3.75%。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调约925元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调，日内 镍价跌破12万大关，下游企业仍以按需采购，未出现采购热潮，华南现货相对充足，目前精炼镍供应过剩格局不 改。其中金川镍升水变化-25元/吨至2425元/吨，进口镍升水变化200元/吨至500元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前 一交易日沪镍仓单量为21041（-72.0）吨，LME镍库存为197634（126）吨。 策略 印尼镍矿供应紧缺现象难改，价格变化不大，成本支撑较强，但精炼镍应过剩格局不改。预计近期偏弱下探，中 长线仍 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.12） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78700-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，世行在报告中预计， 今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低 0.5 个百分点。其中，将美国经济增速从此前的 2.3%大幅下调至 1.4%。欧元区和日本的经 济增速均被下调至 0.7%。 2、供给方面，2025 年 4 月份智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)铜产量同比增加 20.5%至 11.46 万吨，得益于部分矿山技改完成。必和必拓旗下的 Escondida 铜矿 4 月份铜产量同比 增长 31%至 12.84 万吨，这反映高品位矿石的开采效率提升。由嘉能可和英美资源集团联 合经营的另一座大型铜矿 Collahuasi4 月份铜产量同比下降 13.5%至 3.66 万吨，归因于矿石 品位下降或运营调整。全球铜精矿和废铜短期的格局持续。 3、需求方面，5 月，新能源汽车表现尤为突出，单月销量达 130.7 万辆，同比增长 36.9%。电解铜现货市场方面，重庆地区下游消费进入淡季，叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for plastics in the unilateral strategy, and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - In the traditional off - season of demand, the overall performance of the polyolefin demand side is weak, with weak downstream orders, reduced factory replenishment willingness, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation due to the expected start - up of multiple previously overhauled devices and the limited cost support from the significant decline in international crude oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7102 yuan/ton (-4), the PP main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton (+19), the LL North China spot was 7130 yuan/ton (-10), the LL East China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+60), the PP East China spot was 7100 yuan/ton (+20), the LL North China basis was 28 yuan/ton (-6), the LL East China basis was 78 yuan/ton (+64), and the PP East China basis was 140 yuan/ton (+1) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP operating rate was 77.0% (+1.6%), the PE oil - based production profit was 187.4 yuan/ton (+28.1), the PP oil - based production profit was - 92.6 yuan/ton (+28.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 117.3 yuan/ton (+4.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 302.5 yuan/ton (+13.2), the PP import profit was - 472.3 yuan/ton (+3.1), and the PP export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.4% (+0.7%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased, and the upstream factory inventory and trader inventory were slowly destocked [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, various ratings such as "oscillating strongly," "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," "rising," and "falling" are given [1][4][6][8][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships of various commodities. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [1][4][6][8][10]. - The upward breakthrough of stock index futures requires further accumulation of policy and capital benefits, while the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Bond markets are expected to have no trend - like market due to uncertainties [1]. - For most commodities, the supply - demand relationship is the key factor affecting their prices. For example, commodities with oversupply are likely to have downward pressure on prices, while those with tight supply may see price increases [2][4][6][8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures are approaching the upper resistance level, and further breakthrough requires the accumulation of policy and capital benefits. The short - term upward momentum is slightly weakened, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to lay out IF and IM on dips and pay attention to the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations on market risk preference [1]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is oscillating. There are uncertainties in domestic and foreign macro - economic conditions and domestic policy rhythms. The bond market is expected to have no trend - like market. In the short term, the capital market and short - term macro - events are the main driving factors. There is some support in the bond market under the loose liquidity environment, but the upward momentum is cautious [1]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are oscillating strongly. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiations may achieve limited/phase results. The US employment data is resilient, but the risk of re - inflation still exists. It is recommended to buy on dips based on long - term moving averages or continue to hold short - selling out - of - the - money put options for gold. For silver, continue to hold long positions in the 08 contract or hold short - selling out - of - the money put options [1][4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is oscillating. The macro - economic situation has high uncertainty, and the supply of the mine end is still tight. The demand is cautious due to the macro - uncertainty and the domestic consumption off - season. The LME inventory is continuously decreasing. Short - term market sentiment and funds may magnify price fluctuations [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is oscillating, and alumina is oscillating weakly. The supply of alumina has uncertainties, but the short - term impact is weakened. The resumption of production increases the supply pressure, and the price may continue to run close to the cost line. The supply of aluminum has clear constraints, but the demand policy has uncertainties [4]. - Nickel: The price is oscillating. The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is gradually recovering, but there are policy concerns. The downstream stainless steel demand is weak, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation. It is not advisable to chase short positions for now, and continue to hold previously short - sold call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Styrene: The support is strengthening, and new long positions can be entered for EB2508 [2]. - PTA: The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the previously short positions of PTA2509 can be held [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - sold call options of LC2509 - C - 60000 can be held [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. However, the technical side shows signs of over - decline repair. It is recommended to enter short - selling put options [6]. - Crude Oil: The price is oscillating weakly. Although there are positive expectations for trade negotiations and the OPEC production increase is lower than expected, the consumption side is not good, and the global inventory is difficult to reduce. It is not advisable to chase long positions for now [8]. - Polyester: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply increase is expected to be clear, and the market lacks upward driving force [10]. - Methanol: The price is rising. The spot trading has improved significantly, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. Unless the supply is significantly reduced, the price is difficult to rise sharply [10]. - Polyolefins: The price is falling. The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply pressure. If the inventory accumulates in the upper and middle reaches, the price will further decline [10]. Black Metals - Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore: All are oscillating. The Sino - US trade negotiations are in progress, and the market sentiment is cautious. The demand for construction steel is in the off - season, and the supply of iron ore is expected to increase. For rebar, continue to hold short - sold out - of - the money call options; for hot - rolled coil, hold previously recommended short positions; for iron ore, cautious investors can hold the 9 - 1 positive spread combination, and aggressive investors can hold short positions in the I2601 contract [6]. Coal and Coke - Coking Coal and Coke: Both are oscillating weakly. The supply of coking coal is in an oversupply situation, and the demand of steel and coking enterprises is in the off - season. For coke, although there may be production restrictions due to environmental inspections, the terminal demand is weak, and the demand decline rate is higher than the supply decline rate [8]. Building Materials - Soda Ash and Float Glass: Both are in a bearish trend. The supply of soda ash is relatively loose compared to demand, and the high inventory is difficult to digest. For float glass, the demand is affected by the season and the real - estate market, and the inventory is high. Hold previously recommended short positions for soda ash and float glass and consider relevant spread strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The price is oscillating. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the price trend depends on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [10]. - Rubber: The price is oscillating weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the rubber price is difficult to have a trend - like rebound [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report suggests that the price of live pigs will be in a weak and volatile state. The main reasons are that the supply of live pigs will be abundant from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025, and the demand in the second and third quarters will not strongly support the price increase. Although the spot price may reach a new low, the price of the 09 contract is considered to be in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On June 10, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly based on the regression of futures and spot prices and the game of delivery. The far - month contracts are affected by the decline of spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume, showing a weak and volatile trend [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 1,258 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,505 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,475 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical situations and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes: the farming side has not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, and the demand support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic includes: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be weak and volatile [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters is weak, and it is difficult to support a significant increase in pig prices. If there is a concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may reach a new low. Although the spot price may reach a new low, due to the high uncertainty and the fact that the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract, it is considered that the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On June 10, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.65% compared with the previous day. The average slaughter price in Henan was 14.13 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg or 1.58%. The average slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.84 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.73% [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 contract increasing by 1.19% and the 09 contract increasing by 0.89%, while the 11 contract decreased by 0.08% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan increased by 100 yuan/ton or 22.99% to 535 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking The report provides data charts on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14].