交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 中美贸易谈判变数，豆粕探底回升 （豆粕周报10.20-10.24） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期转淡， 油厂压榨量维持高位 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏弱，油厂开机预 计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 2980. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean is affected by the high imports of soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [10][11]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 may maintain an oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals include the US soybean's oscillatory decline, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount. The inventory decreased compared to last week and last year, but the main position's short - selling increased and funds flowed out [9]. - The soybean A2601 may also oscillate. The fundamentals are affected by the US soybean situation, high imports of soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [11]. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation is in a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, imports of soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The imports of soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - The profit of pig farming in China decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total imports of soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2025 [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, end - inventory, new - bean exports, and other data of the US in the past six months [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data summary is provided other than the increase of short positions in the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans and the corresponding capital flow information [9][11].

Group 1: Event Overview - The China-U.S. economic and trade talks took place in Kuala Lumpur on October 25-26, 2023, led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen[1] - Key topics included U.S. maritime logistics and shipbuilding 301 measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls[1] - Both sides reached a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns and agreed to further define specific details and follow domestic approval procedures[1] Group 2: Negotiation Insights - The discussions marked a shift from previous rounds, focusing on substantive issues like agricultural trade and fentanyl tariff reductions, indicating progress in negotiations[2] - Chinese Commerce Ministry representative Li Chenggang noted that while constructive discussions occurred, the U.S. maintained a firm stance, and China remained steadfast in protecting its interests[2] - Future negotiations and outcomes are contingent on subsequent talks and high-level considerations from both sides[2] Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The timing of the talks before the APEC meeting is strategically significant, providing an opportunity for communication and position coordination ahead of high-level meetings[2] - APEC serves as a crucial platform for global economic cooperation, making the prior discussions essential for regional and global economic collaboration[2] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include the U.S. policy pace exceeding expectations and the possibility of slower-than-anticipated progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations[2]

周度报告-黄金 资金获利了结，金价高位下挫 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：看跌 报告日期： 2025 年 10 月 26 日 ★投资建议： 短期金价缺乏上涨动力，需要注意回调风险，国际金价考察 4000 美元的支撑，沪金出现一定的抄底迹象，不过也未完全企稳。关 注中美贸易谈判进展，预计市场波动增加。 ★风险提示： 地缘政治风险缓和、美联储鹰派、流动性冲击，将引发黄金回调。 | 徐颖 | FRM | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | | F3022608 | | 投资咨询号： | | Z0013609 | | Tel: | | 8621-63325888-1610 | | Email: | | ying.xu @orientfutures.com | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金跌 3.3%至 4113 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率微降至 4%，通 胀预期 2.27%，实际利率微升至 1.73%，美元指数涨 0.53%至 98.9， 标普 500 指数上涨 1.92%，人民币震荡，沪金折价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between China and the U.S. covered various topics, including export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related issues, and trade expansion, leading to constructive dialogue and preliminary consensus on handling mutual concerns [1]. Group 1: Key Discussion Topics - The discussions included export control issues that both sides are concerned about [1] - There was a focus on extending the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs [1] - Fentanyl tariffs and cooperation on drug control were significant points of discussion [1] - The U.S. expressed a strong stance on these issues, while China remained firm in protecting its interests [1] Group 2: Outcomes and Next Steps - After intense discussions, both sides explored constructive solutions to address their concerns [1] - A preliminary consensus was formed on several issues, indicating progress in negotiations [1] - Each side will proceed with internal approval processes to implement the discussed agreements [1]

新华社快讯：中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如 双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题， 进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方 表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题 建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 ...

Core Points - The discussions between China and the U.S. covered various topics including export control issues, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, and cooperation on fentanyl drug control [1] - Both sides engaged in constructive discussions, with the U.S. maintaining a strong stance while China remained firm in protecting its interests [1] - After intense discussions, preliminary consensus was reached on handling the concerns of both parties, with each side set to follow internal approval processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussions between China and the U.S. covered various topics including export controls, tariff suspensions, fentanyl-related issues, and trade expansion, leading to constructive dialogue and preliminary consensus on handling mutual concerns [1] Group 1 - The discussions included key topics such as export control issues, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, and cooperation on fentanyl drug control [1] - The U.S. expressed a strong stance while China remained firm in protecting its interests during the discussions [1] - After over a day of intense discussions, both sides explored constructive solutions and reached a preliminary consensus on the issues discussed [1]

新华社快讯：中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如 双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题， 进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方 表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题 建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 责任编辑：何俊熹 ...

（文章来源：新华社） 新华社快讯：中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢26日说，双方的讨论包括众多的议题，比如 双方各有关注的出口管制议题，对等关税进一步延长暂停期问题，芬太尼关税和芬太尼禁毒合作问题， 进一步扩大贸易问题，美方301船舶收费相关措施问题等等，中美双方就此进行了建设性的探讨，美方 表达立场是强硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的。经过一天多的非常紧张的讨论，中美双方就上述这些议题 建设性地探讨了一些妥善处理双方关注的方案，形成了初步共识。下一步各自将会履行内部报批程序。 ...