1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-19 冬储预期配合供给扰动，盘⾯延续反弹 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基 本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑，盘⾯低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，供给扰动⽀撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅空间。 淡季供需双弱，其中螺纹钢基本面仍有韧性，热卷库存压力仍存，基 本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑，盘面低位反弹。同时 冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，供给扰动支撑煤焦估值修复 反弹。玻纯盘面价格低位震荡，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水继续下滑，刚需支撑减弱，港口库存累积，钢 厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供减需稳， 钢厂库存偏高，补库放缓，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需 求仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭现货短期虽仍有一轮补跌预期，但随着焦钢企 业原料冬储补库，成本端有望企稳，对现货价格提供支撑，盘面估值 仍有修复空间，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 ...

12月18日收盘，纯碱主力合约上涨2.14%，收于1193.00元/吨。多部委推进"反内卷"，带动市场情绪偏乐观。供应端，纯碱产量 小幅上升。新产能投产背景下，长期供给压力较大。当前价格处于低位，成本抬升情况下，预计碱厂检修意愿较强，产量可能 下滑，后续重点关注供应情况。 需求端，光伏玻璃产量环比持稳，浮法玻璃产量环比下滑，价格下滑浮法玻璃冷修预期增加，纯碱需求端承压。 总体来看，重碱需求有走弱预期;轻碱需求较为稳定。库存端，下游补库带动碱厂库存持续下行，考虑到后续仍有检修，可能导 致供应下滑，碱厂累库压力短期有所缓解。当前需关注成本端支撑情况，动力煤在保供情况下，价格走弱，纯碱成本预计将下 移，震荡思路对待。 基本面来看，纯碱供应水平低位稳定，行业开工率昨日维持在82.05%。部分地区大厂降负荷，且后续仍有企业计划检修，纯碱 供应仍有波动。需求端表现一般，中下游低价采购，刚需跟进为主。玻璃产线冷修预期加强，纯碱刚需也存在继续回落预期。 纯碱基本面波动幅度不大，期货市场相关化工品种、黑色系品种集体走强提供联动效应，且市场对宏观、反内卷或环保、地产 政策等外部因素仍存预期。预计短期纯碱期货价格继续低位反弹，但当 ...

机构观点 建信期货：整体来看，纯碱市场短期仍处于供强需弱的格局之中，高库存压力难以快速化解，成本支撑虽逐步显现，但驱动有限。在供需结构未 发生明显转变前，预计盘面价格将继续在低位区间震荡磨底，操作上建议以观望为主，谨慎对待反弹行情，关注后续供需边际变化与政策端动 向。 12月18日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格稳定，轻质纯碱报价出厂1380-1400元。江苏井神化工纯碱装置减量，价格稳定，轻质报价出厂 1300元/吨。 截止到2025年12月18日，本周国内纯碱厂家总库存149.93万吨，较上周四增加0.50万吨，涨幅0.33%。 12月18日国内纯碱企业库存总量在138.6万吨(含部分厂家外库库存)，较12月11日库存增加1.2万吨，增幅0.9%，同比下降12.4%，其中重碱库存 64.4万吨，较12月11日库存下降0.2万吨，降幅0.3%。 12月18日，纯碱期货延续偏强走势，截至发稿主力合约报1192.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.05%。 【消息面汇总】 五矿期货：随着检修企业陆续复产，加上阿拉善地区新增产能释放预期升温，市场供应压力逐步凸显。下游需求尚未出现明显好转，采购仍以刚 需补库为主，整体备货 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘升温，油价短线反弹。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美地缘不确 | | | | 定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上 | | | 升。 | | | | | 期现共振下跌，LP 价差大幅收缩。停车比例小幅提升至 14%，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-18 供需两端持续承压，价格反弹乏力 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6479元/吨（-64），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为6450 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-29元/吨（+14），LL 华东基差为101元/吨（+64）， PP华东基差为-54元/吨（+2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-100.0元/吨（+5.1），PP进口利润为-268.1元/吨（+4.9），PP出口利润为-12.1美元/吨（-0.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端12月PE总体检修量级不高，后期计划检修量亦相对有限，PE开工预期持续回升，且巴斯夫50万吨 FDPE新装置预期年底投产，供应宽松压力持续；需求端，PE下游整体开工继续下滑，其中农膜开工进入淡季，棚 膜需求 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为208元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为602.05元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中央财办对中央经济⼯作会议的解读中，对扩⼤内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进⾏了深⼊分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，钢材基本⾯难⾔亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本⽀撑， 盘⾯低位反弹。同时冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿盘⾯表现较强，煤焦估 值修复反弹。玻纯盘⾯价格企稳反弹，但供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上 ⽅空间。 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-18 政策及冬储预期仍有⽀撑，盘⾯表现偏 强 中央财办对中央经济工作会议的解读中，对扩大内需、"反内卷"、 稳定房地产市场等热点进行了深入分析，政策基调仍显积极。淡季深 入需求转弱，钢材基本面难言亮点，但冬储补库预期叠加成本支撑， 盘面低位反弹。同时冬储补库预期支撑下铁矿盘面表现较强，煤焦估 值修复反弹。玻纯盘面价格企稳反弹，但供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上 方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：年底钢厂检修增多，铁矿刚需支撑逐渐弱化，港口 库存累积，钢厂补库需求仍未明显释放，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废 钢供需偏稳，库存累积，但电炉利润尚可，长、短流程钢企废钢需求 仍有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [11]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [11]. Report's Core View - The support for natural rubber is still at the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand may support the raw material prices, but the overall supply is increasing. Domestic port inventory is expected to rise further, and downstream tire orders are in the off - season, resulting in weak supply - demand drivers [11]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, supply remains abundant. Downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, on the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Market Information - In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - duty truck market this year [2]. - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million units and 3.429 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [2]. - In December 2025, the trading of all - steel tires was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, market demand weakened further. With relatively sufficient market supply, channels and terminal stores mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average. The market transaction price was stable with a weak trend, and some merchants carried out promotional activities according to their inventory [2]. - From January to October 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 586.64 million, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2]. Import and Export Data - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary shapes, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the exports of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the exports of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 270 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 30), the NR basis was 570 yuan/ton (- 35); the price of full - latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [4][5]. - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.69 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.89), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (- 1.39) [6]. - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.55% (+0.55%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.14% (+1.81%) [7]. - The social inventory of natural rubber was 498,888 tons (+10,159), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,123,406 tons (+20,841), the RU futures inventory was 56,990 tons (+11,460), and the NR futures inventory was 59,573 tons (+2,218) [7]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 330 yuan/ton (- 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton (+100), the quoted price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - butadiene rubber was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,207 yuan/ton (- 214) [8]. - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69% (- 2.84%) [9]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,450 tons (+220), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (- 600) [10]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The support for natural rubber comes from the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand are expected to keep the raw material prices in Thailand firm this week. However, the overall supply is increasing, and the domestic port inventory is expected to rise. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, so the supply - demand drivers are weak [11]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Yulong Petrochemical has restarted, and only Maoming Petrochemical is under maintenance, which is expected to restart in mid - January. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber remains abundant. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11].