1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The supply side has an expectation of gradual release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival, the downstream polysilicon demand remains sluggish. In the medium - to - long - term, there is obvious price support, and the overall pattern shows weak supply and demand [3]. - Polysilicon price is expected to continue weak oscillations. The continuous weakness of industrial silicon prices makes the cost support of polysilicon weak, the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been realized, combined with high inventory, the demand transmission in the industrial chain is difficult [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8700 yuan/ton and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, a change of (-20) yuan/ton or (-0.23)% compared with the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2605 main contract at the close was 236662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 15, 2026 was 21976 lots, with no change from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8500 - 8700 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8500 - 8700 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai areas were flat, and the 97 silicon price remained stable [1]. - As of March 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous week [1]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most of the post - festival inquiries were exploratory [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the festival, but due to the dry season in the Southwest, the operating rate remained low [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have risen, providing solid cost support [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 42030 yuan/ton and closing at 41705 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 4.03% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 34647 (34457 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 5856 lots [3]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. N - type material was 42.00 - 50.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 35.70, with a month - on - month change of 2.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 28.35GW, with a month - on - month change of - 2.28%. The weekly polysilicon output was 19000.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 1.06%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.98GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.12% [3]. - In March, some large factories have start - up plans. Last week, the first - phase 25,000 - ton capacity of the new 80,000 - ton granular silicon project of Tianhong Ruike was ignited. The supply contraction situation will end, and the output is expected to increase compared with February. However, the demand side has not improved significantly and is expected to remain sluggish. The pattern of oversupply will continue [6]. Strategy - Polysilicon price is expected to continue weak oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7]. Other Product Prices - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.03 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cell prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.42 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.41 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.42 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [6].

美以-伊冲突进展持续， 供应紧支撑能化表现偏强 行情综述： 美以-伊冲突进入第三周冲突仍未有改善迹象，霍尔木兹海峡继 续关闭每天仅有零星船只通航，中东各个减产下海湾国家的石油产量 已经减少至少 1000 万桶/天，相当于全球原油供应量的约 9%。短期 持续的供应危机对原油盘面依旧是强支撑。化工品由于原料供应受限， 国内与海外装置出现大面积降负，自身供应问题开始凸显叠加成本支 撑同样易涨难跌。目前博弈核心依然是美以-伊冲突进展，冲突并未 波及伊朗能源设施表面特朗普政府依然蛇鼠两端不愿意扩大冲突规 模，但后续加码代价极大，止损退出也有不小代价，关注特朗普后续 抉择。 （一）原油： 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 （二）苯乙烯： 逻辑：上周亚洲石油苯降负明显，国内纯苯开工两周也从 79%降 至 74%的历史同比低位，苯乙烯开工同样一周下滑 2.3%至 71.79%偏 低未，同时苯乙烯出口未出高位，港口转向去库。供应收缩预期开始 兑现下纯苯苯乙烯得到短期偏强支撑，持续性关注冲突进展。 日度技术面追踪：苯乙烯小时级别短期上涨结构，今日冲高回落 日内震荡，下方短期支撑 9000 一线。策略上小时周期暂观望。 数据来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Bonds, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers. Long positions can be considered in the medium to long term by taking advantage of the discount of stock index futures [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as asset allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the downside is limited as downstream industries resume production, and they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the cost support emerges despite weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are oscillating due to the game between short - term supply concerns and inflation risks [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level due to supply disruptions in Indonesia and macro - emotional fluctuations [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance [1]. - Tin prices are greatly affected by the macro situation and have declined [1]. - Precious metal prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly due to oil price fluctuations and a strong US dollar [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term until the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear [1]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon investment should be on the sidelines due to liquidity risks [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, battery exports, and mine disruptions [1]. - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1]. - Hot rolled coil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to de - stocking pressure [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating more sharply due to policy fluctuations, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts, policy incentives, and cost factors despite weak supply - demand [1]. - Bond prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the medium term due to more relaxed supply - demand, although affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the coking profit has been repaired [1]. - Palm oil prices are bullish due to tight supply - demand in the international market [1]. - Soybean oil prices are expected to rise following other oils and can be used for short - position hedging [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are bullish in the short term due to potential US biodiesel policies [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area decreases [1]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and the upside space needs new drivers [1]. - Pulp futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton [1]. - Log futures prices have fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pig prices are supported by demand, and production capacity needs further release [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost but have relatively weak influence in the energy sector [1]. - BR rubber prices are rising and have upward potential due to supply disruptions and cost support [1]. - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, supply shortages, and downstream demand [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices have risen due to raw material shortages [1]. - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disruptions and strong demand [1]. - Urea prices have limited upside due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol prices are affected by Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC prices are bullish due to geopolitical factors and capacity adjustments [1]. - PG prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical premiums, demand, and inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For steel, cost support exists, and after the basis weakens, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand after the Two Sessions, but high inventory may suppress price rebound elasticity. Derivatives market is affected by market sentiment from the energy - chemical sector. Unilateral short - term pulse rebound can be participated in, and long - basis or cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities for hot - rolled coils can be considered [2][3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the geopolitical conflict continues, mainly affecting market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak with high inventory, and prices face strong upward resistance. It is recommended to take a short - term long - position approach at low prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, continue to focus on geopolitical changes. The spot market is affected by rising oil prices, with improved market sentiment. The futures market is also driven by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the single - side and consider establishing cash - and - carry positions in batches [5][6]. - For iron ore, recent market rumors have caused large price fluctuations. If there are restrictions on Newman powder and Jinbuba powder, there may be a supply gap in the domestic iron ore market. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On March 13, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase, HC2610 at 3302 yuan/ton with a 0.43% increase, etc. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3142 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, HC2605 at 3295 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, etc. [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between RB2605 and RB2610 was - 23 yuan/ton on March 13, and the spread between HC2605 and HC2610 was - 7 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 153 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.87, etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel Prices**: On March 13, Shanghai rebar was 3260 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Tianjin rebar was 3200 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase, etc. [1] - **Other Prices**: Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 670 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase, and Ganqimaodu's coking fine coal was 1175 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Basis**: On March 13, the basis of HC main contract was - 15 yuan/ton with a - 10 - yuan change, and the basis of RB main contract was 118 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan change [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The market is in a strong cost - support, supply - contraction expectation, and weak real - demand game. Prices are expected to maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations. If the geopolitical tension persists, the price is likely to rise, and chemical products may increase more strongly than crude oil. The 05 contract is expected to perform well [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the short - term market rise is due to the optimistic expectation from the geopolitical conflict. The supply is decreasing, and there is a possibility of price increase, but beware of the market decline when the situation eases. For PVC, the cost is rising, the supply is slightly increasing, the demand is improving, and the price has an upward trend in the short term, but also beware of cost collapse [2]. Urea - The urea spot price is relatively stable near the guidance price, and the futures price fluctuates greatly affected by energy - chemical commodities. The fundamentals change little, and the supply pressure remains. The price will follow the trend of crude - chemical products and may be strong in the short term [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - The Middle - East situation affects the supply of PX, leading to a decline in PTA load. MEG has a high probability of de - stocking in March - April. The prices of polyester products are affected by oil prices and fluctuate greatly. Strategies such as long positions plus put options can be considered [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Glass has a good de - stocking situation, and the price center has slightly increased. It is recommended to wait and see and consider low - buying after the macro is stable [5]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains the pattern of "policy control + geopolitical support". If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for 4 weeks, the supply shortage may intensify, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. The price follows the oil price. For styrene, the supply is high, and the profit is under pressure. Both can consider long positions plus put options strategies [9]. Methanol - The current price is mainly dominated by supply interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The follow - up trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict. The 05 - end inventory is expected to be moderately low [10]. LPG - No overall view on LPG is clearly stated in the report. Natural Rubber - The new rubber supply is gradually released, and the raw material price is strong. The demand has uncertainties. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16500 - 17500 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 prices all increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with L2605 up 2.19%, L2609 up 2.66%, PP2605 up 3.61%, and PP2609 up 4.09% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 57.54 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.56% to 66.29 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and the powder - material operating rate increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, East - China PVC (both calcium - carbide and ethylene methods), and SH2605, SH2609, V2605, V2609 futures all increased on March 13 compared to March 12 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The downstream demand for caustic soda and PVC is improving [2]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The urea futures prices increased, and the spot price was relatively stable. The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 1.36% to 21.82 million tons, and the operating rate decreased by 1.36% to 92.68% [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - **Price Changes**: WTI crude oil (April) increased by 3.1% to 98.71, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 8.5% to 1060, and CFR China PX decreased by 2.4% to 1274 on March 13 compared to March 12 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 7.6% to 76.9%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 80.1%. The MEG inventory decreased, and the de - stocking expectation in March - April is strong [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: The glass 2605 and 2609 futures prices increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with 2605 up 1.98% and 2609 up 1.63%. The soda ash 2605 and 2609 futures prices also increased, with 2605 up 1.67% and 2609 up 0.98% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 14.69 million tons [5]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil increased by 2.67% to 103.14, WTI crude oil increased by 3.11% to 98.71, and SC crude oil increased by 5.58% to 754.50 on March 13 compared to March 12 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a very low level. The oil price is affected by geopolitics and policy control [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The price of Brent crude oil (May) increased by 2.7% to 103.14, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 1080 on March 13 compared to March 12. The price of styrene in East - China spot increased by 0.6% to 10040 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation of styrene is expected to slightly de - stock in March [9]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12. The MA2609 closed at 2672, up 3.97% [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 5.13% to 52.321 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 9.05% to 131.3 million tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27 [10]. LPG - **Price Changes**: The main PG2604 increased by 1.65% to 5734 on March 13 compared to March 12, and the PG2605 increased by 1.60% to 5602 [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9, and the port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227 million tons. The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 81.35 [11]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 2.59% to 16900 on March 13 compared to March 12 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new rubber supply in Yunnan and Hainan is gradually released, and the overseas production area is in the off - season. The demand of tire enterprises has uncertainties [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zinc: The supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict the upside space. With limited short - term macro - level positives, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to focus on zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro - level guidance, with the main contract supported at 23800 - 24000 [2]. - Copper: The short - term price is under pressure due to the resolution of the previous inventory structural contradiction and reduced market risk appetite. There may be a phased adjustment risk, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction logic remains unchanged. Short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions. It is advisable to follow the US - Iran conflict and overseas inventory accumulation, with the main contract supported around 98000 [4]. - Nickel: Overseas macro uncertainties increase, and raw material - end disturbances support the price. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The bottom support is strong, but further upward drivers need to be transmitted to the real - world end. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134000 - 145000 [5]. - Stainless Steel: Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight with strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. There is a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 14000 - 14500 [8]. - Aluminum: The alumina market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. Aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels with news changes, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to operate in the range of 24000 - 26000 [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: High raw material costs support the ADC12 price, but demand improvement is slow, and the negative feedback of high prices is emerging. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 24500 [12]. - Tin: In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices still exists, and short - term adjustments may provide opportunities for long - term long positions [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties, and the trading momentum of the new energy sector is weakening. The fundamentals remain resilient, but the optimistic demand expectations have been mostly digested. The price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main contract in the range of 148000 - 162000 [16]. - Industrial Silicon: Cost increases may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Supply is growing rapidly, demand is slightly increasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions at low prices [19]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to demand - side changes. The long - term development of photovoltaic demand may be favorable, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss is - 20.66 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread shows different changes [2]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan, a decline of 0.15%. The import profit and loss is 34 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread also has corresponding changes [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 141350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan, an increase of 0.28%. The import profit and loss of futures is 945 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 25120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan, a decline of 0.55%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 4222 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread has changed [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 25200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 392650 yuan/ton, down 6050 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss is - 13594.90 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread varies [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 159000 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan, an increase of 0.63%. The monthly spread has changed [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly spread shows different trends [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock is 0 yuan/kilogram, down 46000 yuan, a decline of 100%. The monthly spread has corresponding changes [21]. Fundamental Data - **Zinc**: In February, refined zinc production was 50.46 million tons, down 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, up 13.94 percentage points [2]. - **Copper**: In February, electrolytic copper production was 114.24 million tons, down 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, up 10.45 percentage points [4]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in a certain period was 32600 tons, down 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 190.08 million tons, up 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.19% week - on - week [8]. - **Aluminum**: In February, alumina production was 660.02 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.80%, up 16.40 percentage points [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In February, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 35.80 million tons, down 41.31% month - on - month. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, down 41.87% week - on - week [12]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81% year - on - year. In February, SMM refined tin production was 15100 tons, down 23.91% month - on - month [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In February, lithium carbonate production was 83090 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate start - up rate was 48%, down 14.29% month - on - month [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national industrial silicon production was 27.57 million tons, down 26.58% year - on - year. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, down 21.33% year - on - year [19]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly polysilicon production was 1.90 million tons, up 1.06% week - on - week. The monthly polysilicon production was 7.70 million tons, down 23.61% year - on - year [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - L, PP, PVC, PX/PTA, ethylene glycol, methanol are expected to be bullish; urea is recommended to take profits at high levels; caustic soda is expected to be bullish [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Overseas ethylene cracking load reduction continues to expand, with strong cost support from ethylene. Some domestic devices have reduced load due to raw material shortages, and the domestic parking ratio has risen to 12.7%. The planned maintenance volume in March is increasing. Geopolitical conflicts have raised the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][9] - **Market Data**: L05 closed at 8416 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis was -146 yuan/ton; the L59 spread was 271 yuan/ton [7][8] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Raw material and cost pressures have increased the expectation of device maintenance. Geopolitical disturbances have caused some MTO and PDH devices to reduce load, and the current parking ratio remains at a high level of 24.4%. The PDH device is still at a very low level, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][13] - **Market Data**: PP05 closed at 8603 yuan/ton, up 3.6% from the previous day; the main contract basis was 11 yuan/ton; the PP59 spread was 535 yuan/ton [11][12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Factory inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the 59 spread is strengthening rapidly. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has increased the expectation of load reduction for global ethylene-based PVC devices. Some domestic ethylene-based devices have started to reduce load. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][17] - **Market Data**: V05 closed at 5724 yuan/ton, up 1.9% from the previous day; the main contract basis was -54 yuan/ton; the V59 spread was -18 yuan/ton [15][16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the release of strategic reserves by G7 countries is difficult to make up for the supply gap. Crude oil remains volatile and bullish. TA has a high valuation, and the term structure is in backwardation. The upstream PX fundamentals continue to improve, and the load of domestic and overseas refineries has decreased. The downstream demand is seasonally warming up, and the supply and demand are expected to improve in March and April [3][19] - **Market Data**: TA05 closed at 7010 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; the PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton; the PTA production profit was -125 yuan/ton [18] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have not shown obvious signs of easing, and domestic and overseas devices have significantly reduced load. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved. The downstream demand is seasonally warming up, and the fundamentals continue to improve [22] - **Market Data**: EG05 closed at 4729 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan from the previous day; the main contract basis was -57 yuan/ton; the EG5-9 spread was 65 yuan/ton [21] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The valuation is generally high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The domestic methanol load has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and overseas devices have reduced load. The import volume is expected to decrease in February and March, and the port inventory is being depleted rapidly [26] - **Market Data**: Not provided in the given content Urea - **Core View**: Take profits at high levels [4] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea is not low, and the spot price of small granular urea in Shandong is strong. The overall profit is good, and the overall operating load continues to increase. The demand is weak in reality but strong in expectation. The social inventory continues to accumulate. Under the background of "export quota" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the price of urea has an upper limit and a lower limit [30] - **Market Data**: UR05 closed at 1847 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from the previous day; the main contract basis was 13 yuan/ton; the UR5-9 spread was 39 yuan/ton [29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: The improvement in exports has led to a sharp increase in the price of 50% caustic soda, and the price of 32% caustic soda has followed suit. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have increased the expectation of load reduction for ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The load of Tianjin chlor-alkali devices has been rapidly reduced, but the overall domestic load remains high. The factory inventory is slowly decreasing at a high level, and the spot price has not increased enough, resulting in a rapid compression of the basis to a low level in the same period. Caution is advised when chasing up, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume [33] - **Market Data**: SH05 closed at 2604 yuan/ton, up 4.6% from the previous day; the main contract basis was -204 yuan/ton; the SH59 spread was -15 yuan/ton [32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has tightened, the shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, driving up international oil prices significantly. Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the non - ferrous metals sector has generally maintained a volatile trend. - In terms of supply, the domestic stainless - steel crude steel production schedule in March is expected to reach 3.6945 million tons, which has rebounded to a relatively high level. As steel mill shipments become more stable, the market arrival volume continues to increase, and supply - side pressure is gradually emerging. - On the demand side, although downstream processing and end - user enterprises have fully resumed work, procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Market sentiment is generally cautious, and inventory - building and speculative demand are relatively limited. The pace of social inventory reduction is generally slow. - In terms of raw materials, the production cost of nickel - iron in Indonesia has now risen to 1,067 yuan per nickel point, and cost support has increased, providing a certain bottom - support for stainless - steel prices. - In summary, under the combined effects of emerging supply pressure, moderate demand release, and persistent cost support, it is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,800 - 14,800 yuan per ton [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Spot and Futures Market**: On March 13, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,450 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,090 yuan per nickel, with a month - on - month increase of +0.46%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of +3.13%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,190 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.11% [11][18]. - **Supply**: In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule is 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of - 13.84%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 28.99%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 46.36% [11][29][32]. - **Demand**: From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.57%. In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was +18.2% [11][42][45]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.79%; the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 51,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,661 tons. On March 13, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 183,500 tons, 707,100 tons, and 251,900 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by - 1.28% month - on - month; the floating inventory of stainless steel was 63,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of +19.58%, and the unloading volume was 78,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of +13.94% [11][52][55]. - **Cost**: On March 13, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,110 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently making a loss of 66 yuan per nickel [11][62]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - On March 13, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was reported at 14,450 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month change of +0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,090 yuan per nickel, with a month - on - month increase of +0.46%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,800 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of +3.13%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 14,190 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month decrease of - 0.11% [11][18]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong is at a premium of about - 140 yuan (- 14) compared to the main contract; the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang is at a premium of about 60 yuan (- 4) compared to the main contract. The open interest on the futures market is 162,064 lots, a month - on - month decrease of - 6.78% [22]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between contract 1 and contract 2 is reported at - 185 (- 180), and the spread between contract 1 and contract 3 is reported at - 145 (- 160) [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - In March, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production schedule is 1.5451 million tons. In February, the crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 826,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of - 13.84% [29]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated output of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in February was 1.3194 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 28.99%; the output of 300 - series cold - rolled steel in February was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 46.36% [32]. - It is estimated by SMM that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in February was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 13.64%; according to MYSTEEL data, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 121,400 tons in December, a month - on - month increase of +39.16% [35]. - In December 2025, the net export volume of stainless steel was 340,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of +15.96% and a year - on - year increase of +5.13%; the cumulative net export from January to December was 3.1937 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of +8.06% [38]. 3.4. Demand Side - From January to December 2025 in China, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 881.0137 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 8.70%; in December, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 93.9963 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of - 16.57% [42]. - In December, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 7%, 5.7%, - 9.6%, and - 4.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry in December was +18.2% [45]. - In December, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 133,000 units, a month - on - month increase of +0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of - 4.32%; in January, the automobile sales volume was 1.805 million units, a month - on - month decrease of - 23.08% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.20% [48]. 3.5. Inventory - On March 13, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.79%; the futures warehouse receipt inventory was 51,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,661 tons [52]. - On March 13, the social inventories of 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel were 183,500 tons, 707,100 tons, and 251,900 tons respectively, among which the inventory of 300 - series decreased by - 1.28% month - on - month; the floating inventory of stainless steel was 63,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of +19.58%, and the unloading volume was 78,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of +13.94% [55]. 3.6. Cost Side - In December, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 40.27% and a year - on - year increase of +31.13%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% is 74.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.2433 million wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 7.82% [59]. - On March 13, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 1,110 yuan per nickel, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan per nickel. Iron plants in Fujian are currently making a loss of 66 yuan per nickel [62]. - On March 13, the chromium ore quotation was 61 yuan per dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 yuan per dry ton; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,700 yuan per 50 - base ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in February was 851,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 3.49% [65]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 353 yuan per ton, and the profit margin is - 2.38% [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The Iran geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, with the sentiment spilling over to coal and iron ore, leading to an increase in coking coal prices and iron ore shipping costs. Market rumors of China restricting BHP's iron ore procurement and post - holiday restocking demand from downstream have tightened the tradable inventory at ports, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils pose pressure, and steel exports face resistance due to rising oil prices and RMB appreciation, limiting the short - term rebound height [3]. - Iron Ore: Spot liquidity has tightened, with BHP Newman powder added to the spot restriction list, prompting urgent transfers by steel mills and driving up prices. The steel fundamentals are weak, squeezing blast furnace profits. There are doubts about the sustainability of BHP's shipping gap to China, increasing the probability of a short - term reversal [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption phase, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in high supply pressure and intensifying the short - term oversupply of coking coal. The cost of coal for coke furnaces has loosened, slightly expanding coking profits, and rising chemical product prices have improved comprehensive profits, which may increase coke enterprise开工. From March to April is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has slowed down the resumption rhythm, and uncertainties in the Middle East route have suppressed steel exports. The black series as a whole faces significant downward pressure, and while there is support at the bottom for coking coal and coke, their upward elasticity is limited [30]. - Ferroalloys: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [48]. - Soda Ash: The daily output of soda ash has returned to a high of 117,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Current rigid demand is generally stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. Apart from the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and they may be driven by other sectors [62]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation for float glass continues, and daily melting is declining. However, high middle - stream inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be huge and the downstream may not be able to absorb it. There is also continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upward space for glass, and demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors should also be considered, as it may be affected and driven [85]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,193 yuan/ton, up from 3,174 yuan/ton on March 12 [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed slightly. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread decreased from 54 to 51 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous day. For example, the summary price of rebar in China was 3,339 yuan/ton, up from 3,325 yuan/ton on March 12 [8]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) increased from 46 to 57 [8]. - **Other Ratios**: - The 01 volume - rebar ratio was 125 on both March 13 and March 12 [13]. - The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on both March 13 and March 12 [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 758.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - The basis of iron ore contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis was 38.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao increased compared to the previous day. For example, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: - The daily average pig iron output on March 13, 2026, was 221.2 tons, down 6.39 tons compared to March 6 [24]. - The 45 - port desilting volume was 317.9 tons, up 6.82 tons compared to March 6 [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: - The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 211.5 on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - The main coking profit on the futures market was - 31 yuan/ton on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [37]. - The import profits of different coking coal sources also changed. For example, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) was 303 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On March 12, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day [49]. - The silicon iron spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 5 [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - On March 13, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 74 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [50]. - The silicon manganese spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 6 [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,277 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 1.67% [63]. - The month - to - month spreads of soda ash contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 66 to - 58 [63]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the spot prices of heavy - soda ash and light - soda ash in various regions remained stable. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [63]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,112 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 3.35% [86]. - The month - to - month spreads of glass contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 117 to - 113 [86]. - **Sales**: - On March 12, 2026, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 145, 120, 116, and 119 respectively [87].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is currently experiencing a "weak balance" characterized by both supply and demand weaknesses, with prices remaining stable at the bottom due to cost support and improved macro sentiment [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Supply has slightly increased post-holiday, mainly in Xinjiang, where leading companies are gradually resuming production. However, regions like Yunnan and Sichuan are constrained by low operating rates due to drought and high electricity prices, maintaining a tight overall supply [2]. - In the northwest, production in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia remains stable, but cost differentiation is evident, with Gansu facing the most significant losses due to lack of cost advantages [2]. - Some companies in Yunnan and Sichuan are upgrading technology and adding production capacity, which may lead to slight increases in output [2]. Demand Side Summary - Demand from three major downstream sectors is showing divergence, with polysilicon maintaining weak stability and limited procurement of industrial silicon due to cautious inventory management [3]. - The organic silicon market is stable but recovering slowly, leading to limited demand for industrial silicon [3]. - The aluminum alloy sector is gradually increasing operating rates but is still purchasing industrial silicon on an as-needed basis, with no large-scale stocking observed [3]. - Export expectations for 2025 indicate a total of 720,600 tons, with a total export value of approximately $1.012 billion, although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may temporarily impact logistics and demand [3]. Market Dynamics - The core logic of the industrial silicon market revolves around the interplay between cost support and demand suppression, with limited supply increases and enhanced cost support providing a bottom for the market [4]. - Future market conditions will depend on the resumption of production in Xinjiang and changes in operating rates in the southwest, as well as fluctuations in coal and electricity prices [4]. - Without significant demand improvements, the market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation, but potential cost pressures or marginal demand recovery could lead to a gradual shift away from the current stalemate [4].