投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in January 2026 exhibited a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial rise followed by a decline, influenced by macro policy expectations, seasonal demand effects, and weak market transactions [10][11]. January Market Review - The overall steel price in January showed a pattern of "initial bottoming and recovery, followed by high-level decline, and a low-level rebound before another drop," with a core operating range of 3085-3198 yuan/ton [11]. - The first phase (January 5-7) saw a weak bottoming trend due to seasonal demand shrinkage and cautious winter storage intentions from traders, leading to a weak supply-demand dynamic [11]. - The second phase (January 8-21) experienced high-level fluctuations with no clear trend, as the market faced increasing supply-demand contradictions and inventory accumulation [12]. - The third phase (January 22-30) marked a low-level rebound driven by strengthening cost support and marginal improvements in market sentiment, although the overall weak supply-demand situation persisted [13]. February Steel Price Outlook - February is expected to be influenced by traditional holiday effects, with positive expectations for policy benefits from the March meetings providing support for the steel market [14]. - The central bank's announcement of a comprehensive monetary policy package, including potential rate cuts, lays a foundation for macro expectations, although immediate impacts on February are limited [14]. - The industry anticipates increased inventory pressure in February, with a significant reduction in demand before the holiday, which may suppress steel prices [14]. - Overall, February is projected to see a limited increase in prices, with expectations of a narrow fluctuation before the holiday and potential price increases afterward [14]. Operational Recommendations - Steel prices should be approached cautiously, with opportunities for minor replenishment only when prices return to undervalued zones, while profits can be gradually realized [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the inventory of five major steel products has started to increase. Rebar production has increased while demand has decreased, with inventory rising month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation pressure is limited due to the low absolute quantity. The decline in hot - rolled coil inventory has narrowed, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising, and the short - term inventory contradiction is limited. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from overseas (Australia and Brazil) has decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume has increased. The daily output of hot metal continues to rise, supporting the restocking demand. However, port inventory has further increased, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - For coking coal and coke, supply has gradually recovered as some coal mines resumed production, and downstream transactions have improved. With the continuous increase in the daily output of hot metal, there is a certain support for coking coal and coke, and they are expected to operate in a strong - oscillating manner [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the macro - environment improved, but the industrial supply - demand structure weakened. Rebar inventory started to increase, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory narrowed. Steel prices lacked upward momentum and showed an oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 191.04 tons (up 1.50% month - on - month and down 4.20% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 305.51 tons (up 0.33% month - on - month and up 0.53% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar increased, and the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces also increased. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased [14][15][25]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 174.96 tons (down 12.71% month - on - month and down 5.50% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 308.34 tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 2.41% year - on - year). The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased [33]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory started to increase, with both factory and social inventories rising. Hot - rolled coil inventory decline slowed down, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory rising [34][39]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, both the commercial housing and land markets showed a month - on - month decline. In the automotive market, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year [44][47]. 3. Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2606.4 tons (down 5% month - on - month and down 0.7% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2920.4 tons (up 5.95% month - on - month and up 24.59% year - on - year) [56]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 229.5 tons (up 2.07 tons month - on - month and up 5.13 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 323.27 tons (down 0.60% month - on - month and down 0.92% year - on - year) [61]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports was 16275.26 tons (up 1.91% month - on - month and up 8.10% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8989.59 tons (up 0.48% month - on - month and down 10.77% year - on - year) [66]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.34% (up 7.17% month - on - month and down 2.52% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.90 tons (down 11.27% month - on - month and up 10.11% year - on - year) [72]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 95.12% (up 21.42% month - on - month and up 37.72% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 85.85% (up 24.26% week - on - week and up 32.89% year - on - year) [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 45 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.69% (up 1.35% month - on - month and down 0.63% year - on - year) [81]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory increased. Coke port inventory increased slightly, and coking plant inventory decreased [82][88]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, the price remained stable, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued [94]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil slightly contracted. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread oscillated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore slightly contracted [100][105].

Report Summary Industry Information - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries, analyzing their price trends, supply - demand situations, and downstream market conditions [1][2][3] Core Views - The current situation of industrial silicon is characterized by weak supply and demand, with high inventory difficult to reduce, but strong cost support below. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2] - Polysilicon is also facing weak supply and demand, with high inventory levels. Affected by weak market sentiment, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract closed at 8850 yuan/ton [2][4][6] - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large factories implemented production cuts at the end of last month, and the overall industrial silicon production decreased month - on - month. The national industrial silicon furnace - opening number was 224, the start - up rate was 27.79%, and the weekly output was 8.36 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons [2][16][18] - **Demand**: The weekly start - up of polysilicon was basically stable, and pre - holiday stocking was completed. The start - up of organic silicon increased slightly, but there were expectations of a decline in February. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was divided. In December, industrial silicon exports were 5.49 tons, a 7% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year increase [2] - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from last week [2] - **Price Difference**: As of January 30, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, and that of Xinjiang was 250 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week [8][10] Polysilicon - **Price**: As of January 30, the spot price of N - type dense material was 57500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1500 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract closed at 47140 yuan/ton [3][12][14] - **Supply**: Since mid - last month, leading enterprises have actively implemented production suspension and reduction plans, and the supply has shrunk. The output in February will decline significantly month - on - month [3] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of downstream silicon wafer enterprises was low, and they were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. In December, polysilicon imports were 1872.8 tons, a 77% month - on - month increase; exports were 1670.4 tons, a 48% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the polysilicon factory inventory was 30.27 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from last week [3][20][22] Downstream Markets - **Silicon Wafers**: As of January 30, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased by 0.125, 0.125, 0.065 and 0.075 yuan/piece respectively from last week [24][26] - **External - demand Battery Cells**: As of January 30, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon increased by 0.025 yuan/watt respectively from last week [28][30] - **Components**: As of January 30, the prices of 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon increased by 0.02 yuan/watt respectively from last week [32][34] - **Organic Silicon**: As of January 30, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up increased slightly last week, with maintenance expected in February [37] - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of January 30, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up rate of recycled aluminum enterprises declined [39][41]

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8730元/吨,周五收盘价为8850元/吨，周涨幅为1.37%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比减少2.35%。本周样本企业产量为44140万吨,环 比持平;其中云南样本企业开工率为20.36%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为0%,环比本周持续停产 新疆样本企业开工率为86.22%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为83%,环比持平。预计本月开工率为 61%,较上月开工率64.59%减少3.59个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%,需求持续低迷。具 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, supported by the macro - level and geopolitical factors, the cost side will boost the polyolefin market, which is likely to run strongly [6][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - level China - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.5%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month [9]. - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 931.17 billion yuan, a 13.4% decrease. The real estate development climate index was 91.45 [11][12]. - The overall economic recovery momentum is not strong. Although CPI and PPI improved in December 2025, real estate data continued to decline, and the manufacturing PMI in January 2026 fell below the 50% boom - bust line, indicating a weak economic recovery [14]. International - In December, the US CPI remained flat at 2.7% compared to the previous month. In the Eurozone, the CPI in December 2025 decreased by 0.2% to 1.9% compared to the previous month, facing greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. Currently, inflation in both the US and the Eurozone has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [15]. - On January 29, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that inflation is still high, mainly due to the increase in commodity - sector inflation driven by tariffs. If tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, the Fed may relax its policy. The US is likely to continue the interest - rate cut cycle in the future. The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15% [17][19]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy. The US manufacturing PMI in December decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9% compared to the previous month. The employment indicator improved last month, with the unemployment rate in December decreasing by 0.1% to 4.4% [20]. - The domestic real estate recovery is still difficult and requires further policy support. Domestic policies are likely to remain loose, and policies to boost the economy will continue to be introduced. In the US, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to decrease, and the demand to boost the economy will persist. The US is likely to continue to cut interest rates. Therefore, both the domestic and international macro - levels may improve [22]. Fundamental PE - In January, polyethylene supply increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.94%, 0.38 percentage points higher than the previous period, and the output was 3.0594 million tons, a 1.68% increase. The increase in output was mainly due to the new production of a 300,000 - ton/year new device and a 30.23% decrease in maintenance losses [23]. - In January, polyethylene downstream demand declined slightly. The overall downstream industry starting rate was 39.86%, a 2.02% decrease from the previous month. The demand for northern greenhouse films basically ended, with the starting rate decreasing by 8.08% month - on - month. The follow - up of long - term agreement orders for packaging films was limited, and the continuity of customized orders was average, with a 3.04% month - on - month decrease [25]. - In January, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. At the end of January, the social sample warehouse inventory was 479,600 tons, a 45,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 39,000 - ton increase year - on - year. The cost and news boosted the market sentiment, downstream factories increased inventory replenishment, and trading among traders increased. Production enterprises actively sold to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventory and a slight increase in social sample warehouse inventory [28]. - In January, the supply - demand situation of polyethylene was still weak, with supply increasing and demand decreasing. However, due to the boost from the macro - level and cost side, the polyethylene price ran strongly [30]. PP - In January, PP supply decreased. The total output of polypropylene in China was 3.4474 million tons, a 110,500 - ton decrease from December 2025, a 3.11% decrease. Temporary maintenance of production enterprises due to cost and unexpected reasons increased, and there was no new capacity put into production, resulting in a significant decline in output [31]. - In January, PP downstream demand decreased. The apparent consumption of polypropylene in January was estimated to be 3.4774 million tons, a 4.01% decrease from the previous month. The starting rates of BOPP and modified PP increased by 0.69% and 1.59% respectively, mainly due to the increase in express packaging demand during the year - end New Year goods season and the impact of new - energy vehicle subsidy policies on modified demand. However, the starting rates of most general - purpose products decreased due to insufficient follow - up of new orders [33]. - In January, the inventories of polypropylene production enterprises and traders both decreased. At the end of January, the inventory of production enterprises was 400,900 tons, a 24.83% decrease from the end of the previous month. Traders' inventory was 183,400 tons, a 2.02% decrease from the end of the previous month. In January, the supply - demand of polypropylene decreased, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. However, due to the geopolitical boost, the prices of crude oil and propylene strengthened, which in turn boosted the PP price to run strongly [38]. Market Outlook PE - In February, there will be no new domestic polyethylene production enterprises. The output and imports are expected to decrease by 196,400 tons and 79,000 tons respectively, with a total supply decrease of 275,400 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand is expected to decrease by 389,300 tons. The demand enters the off - season, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. Polyethylene will be in a situation of oversupply for most of the next three months. However, due to the boost from the macro - level and cost side, polyethylene is likely to still run strongly [39][41]. PP - In February, polypropylene enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the oversupply situation continues with inventory accumulation further intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. However, the macro - level policy is continuously favorable, and the cost side, especially the strong propane import cost, makes the polypropylene market regain the enthusiasm for price increase. Polypropylene may still run strongly [41].

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's January meeting did not result in an interest rate cut, which was expected, but the market is now focused on the nomination of the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, which has shifted expectations for future monetary policy and strengthened the dollar, impacting the copper market [3][17] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Greenland incident, have widened the rift between the US and Europe, leading to a sell-off in US Treasuries and affecting market sentiment [3][17] - In January, China's manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3%, with a seasonal decline in economic activity, although high-tech manufacturing remains strong, raising expectations for policy measures to stabilize growth [3][17] Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historically low levels, indicating persistent tightness in supply, which supports the current market fundamentals [4][18] - Estimated electrolytic copper production for February is 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][18] - In December, net imports of refined copper fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month [4][18] - As of January 30, global visible copper inventories rose by 180,000 tons to 1.094 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also increasing [4][18] Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The copper market is currently characterized by a "strong expectation" versus "weak reality" dynamic, particularly as the Chinese New Year approaches and copper prices remain high [5][19] - The recent adjustments in precious metals have also impacted copper prices, which are expected to face short-term downward pressure due to weak fundamentals and increasing inventories [5][19] - The market may test support levels of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan per ton, but strong demand and supply constraints could attract long-term investment, providing a solid foundation for future price increases [5][19] Nickel and Stainless Steel Market - The FOB price for nickel ore from the Philippines has surged, with expectations for domestic nickel ore premiums rising [20][21] - February's estimated electrolytic nickel production is expected to decline by 5% to 35,800 tons, while domestic nickel pig iron production is projected to drop by 12% to 20,000 tons [20][21] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in nickel prices, but strong fundamentals in nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices suggest ongoing supply concerns [20][21] Aluminum Market Dynamics - In January, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina production was 7.49 million tons, a 0.4% month-on-month decline, while electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.1% to 3.98 million tons [22][23] - The average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was reported at 60.2%, with variations across different product categories [22][23] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum ingots have increased, indicating a buildup ahead of the holiday season, with expectations for a potential recovery in demand post-holiday [22][23] Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures have shown a slight decline, with January production estimated at 333,000 tons, a 6.4% month-on-month decrease [11][24] - Polysilicon production has also decreased significantly, with January output down 28.9% month-on-month [11][24] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with ongoing discussions about production cuts and pricing pressures affecting the overall outlook for silicon materials [11][24] Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production has decreased, with expectations for a decline in battery-grade lithium carbonate output in February [14][26] - Demand for lithium materials remains strong, but market sentiment has weakened, leading to price volatility [14][26] - The recent policy changes regarding energy pricing may provide some support for the lithium market, but overall sentiment remains cautious [14][27]

南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——成本抬升，供应缩减 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月01日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端成为短期主要扰动：成本端原油丙烷中长期来看依然会受到基本面及地缘的共同影响，但短期地缘 占据主导，周内美伊局势持续发酵，推动原油价格上涨，如果美国持续对伊朗进行威胁，风险溢价短期依然 会存在。 2）供应收缩带来供需差好转：本周供需差大幅回落，主要受到PDH检修的影响，近期金能、万华、巨正源等 陆续进入检修状态，PDH开工从76%大幅下行至60%，目前看金能、巨正源等预期都要检修到2月份，短期依 然提供支撑，但需关注丙烯价格上涨后下游的接受度。 3）情绪传染：近期盘面情绪同样占了很大的比例，上周下半周开始化工品的普涨以及本周周尾有色贵金属的 回调，都对盘面造成了比较大的影响。 我们认为，短期的上涨是成本+基本面+情绪共同作用下的结果，从理性的角度的 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, geopolitical disturbances are strong, and the fundamental driving force is downward. In the short term, the market focuses on the geopolitical situation in Iran, with strong emotional support. In the medium to long term, as the supply reduction gradually returns and the demand - side PDH is in deep loss, the driving force is downward [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The upward driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances. Next week, with the expected return of fluctuating PDH devices, the tight - balance pattern of propylene may improve, and its trend is more driven by the cost and supply sides [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - The US dollar cost of LPG maintains a strong and volatile trend, and domestic civil prices rise steadily. The freight rate has increased, the spot premium has declined, and the US Gulf - Far East arbitrage window remains open [12]. - The lowest deliverable product is East China civil LPG [15]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commodity volume is 543,000 tons (+1.9%), including 232,000 tons of civil gas (+1.6%) and 169,000 tons of ether - after carbon four (+2.9%). The propane import volume has decreased by 43,000 tons compared with the previous period [63][74]. - The total US LPG shipment volume is stable month - on - month, the Canadian shipment volume is stable, and the Middle East LPG shipment volume has increased month - on - month [42][45]. - **Demand & Inventory** - The PDH operating rate has further declined slightly, and the MTBE operating rate is flat month - on - month. The LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level compared with the same period in 2025, and there is regional differentiation in the civil gas refinery inventory. The LPG terminal imported cargo inventory continues to decrease [81][83][93][107]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, the supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [119]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Geopolitical risks have intensified, costs have increased, and propylene's own supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, rising and then stabilizing. The PDH profit has weakened after a brief recovery [122]. - International/US - dollar prices have increased month - on - month, and the import window remains closed. Domestic prices were strong at the beginning of the week and gradually stabilized in the middle of the week [126][132]. - **Balance Sheet** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The oil - based operating rate has increased, while the PDH and MTO operating rates have declined. Downstream varieties have more load - reduction than load - increase [142]. - The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions are analyzed in detail, including the production, import, export, and consumption of each month from 2025 to 2026 [146][163][166]. - **Supply** - The overall operating rate of propylene upstream is 70.5% (-0.9%). The refinery/main - operating rate has further increased to 80%, the ethylene cracking operating rate is 85.1% (+3.0%), the PDH capacity utilization rate is 60.7% (-1.5%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 80.9% (-3.4%) [173][184][194][199]. - Some PDH and MTO devices have undergone maintenance and restart operations [198][203]. - **Demand** - The PP capacity utilization rate is 74.8% (-1.3%), the PP powder capacity utilization rate is 32.1% (+1.3%), the PO capacity utilization rate is 73.3% (+0.3%), the acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 69.0% (-6.2%), the acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 84.2% (+2.6%), the n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 86.1% (-1.4%), the octanol capacity utilization rate is 91.0% (-5.0%), the phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the ECH capacity utilization rate is 54.3% (-3.7%) [215][234][246][259][264][277][282][287][297]. - Some devices in each downstream industry have undergone start - stop and load - adjustment operations [219][238][250][263][276][281][286][292]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventory, PP powder inventory, and other downstream inventories have changed to varying degrees [301][303][304].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the double-silicon futures market maintained a volatile trend, with narrowing price fluctuations, presenting a game between cost support under macro - policy guidance and fundamentals. The implementation of NDRC Document No. 114 on improving the capacity tariff mechanism for the power generation side may significantly raise the structural cost bottom of double - silicon. [5] - Macroscopically, domestically, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; overseas, the sharp rise and fall of gold prices have affected commodity sentiment, and Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. [5] - Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mills' alloy restocking before the Spring Festival may have ended, resulting in weak support for raw material demand. [5] - Fundamentally, the logics of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain differentiated. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, but the fundamental pressure is acceptable due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts. The supply of silicomanganese has declined due to production cuts in the southern region, but the upward space is significantly restricted by the substantial increase in warehouse - receipt inventory. Considering the increase in the inventory usage days brought by the pre - festival restocking of steel mills, the demand side still shows resilience. In the short term, the prices of double - silicon will maintain a range - bound oscillation between the expectation of rising costs and the actual inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the specific implementation of electricity price regulations in major production areas and the pace of post - festival demand recovery. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, the price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,652 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 788,860 lots and an open interest of 111,150 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 104,761 lots. [8] - This week, the price of the silicomanganese 2605 contract was firm, closing at 5,872 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 818,531 lots and an open interest of 361,914 lots, a week - on - week increase of 13,356 lots. [8] - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country showed a slight upward trend. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. [9] - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,480 - 5,800 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton. [9] 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese was 192,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, with a change rate of - 0.4%. The weekly operating rate was 36.21%, unchanged from last week. The production reduction was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 25%. [12][13] Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The output of building materials increased year - on - year and week - on - week, providing some support for the demand for silicomanganese. [20] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 373,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons. [27] - As of January 30, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 37,913, a week - on - week increase of 2,382, an increase of 11,910 tons, and the current converted inventory was 189,565 tons. [27] - In January, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 17.48 days (+1.96 days), 15.1 days in the northern region (+1.31 days), 18.95 days in the eastern region (+1.43 days), and 20.91 days in the southern region (+4.64 days). [27] Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment volume has returned to the previous high level, and the short - term supply - demand of manganese ore is in a weak balance. [31] - The manganese ore port clearance volume remains at a high level, and the pace of ore preparation may slow down before the Spring Festival. [32] - Overseas mining enterprises' quotations have increased, and the price of oxidized ore at the port has slightly loosened. [38] Cost and Profit - The cost center is relatively stable, and the futures market profit has increased with the market. [41] 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 98,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production increase was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 100%. [45][46] Demand - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in December was 282,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons. The export volume of ferrosilicon in December was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. [53] - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The total output of magnesium metal in January was 90,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. [58] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 680 tons. [60] - As of January 30, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 8,560, a week - on - week decrease of 600, a decrease of 3,000 tons, and the current converted inventory was 42,800 tons. [60] - In January, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 17.52 days (+2.11 days), 15.52 days in the northern region (+1.76 days), 18.43 days in the eastern region (+1.38 days), and 21.09 days in the southern region (+4.45 days). [60] Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has increased with the market. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival operating rhythm of factories. [65]