1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. The fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [6]. - For methanol, supply pressure is increasing, the market is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3]. - Regarding urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic situation is one of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover in the long - term. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. - For PX, although there is currently a lack of upward drivers, the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and there is support at the lower end of the valuation. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the peak season [23]. - For PTA, the supply has shifted from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the demand side is improving. It is recommended to follow PX and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess, and there is downward pressure on the valuation in the medium - term [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 3.40 yuan/barrel, or 0.69%, at 493.20 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oils, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 1.00 yuan/ton, or 0.04%, at 2840.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 30.00 yuan/ton, or 0.85%, at 3512.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57%; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55%; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 132 [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic production has further increased, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Import arrivals have increased, and port inventories have accumulated to a high level [3]. - **Demand**: The profit of port MTO has continued to improve, but demand is weak. Traditional demand has not improved significantly, and overall downstream performance is average [3]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 3, the 01 contract fell 32 yuan/ton to 1714 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of - 14. The futures price broke through the support level on Wednesday, while the spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened [5]. - **Supply**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, domestic production has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has been relieved. However, enterprise profits are still at a medium - low level [5]. - **Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers has peaked and declined, and domestic agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Exports have increased, and port inventories have risen rapidly. Currently, demand is mainly concentrated in exports [5]. - **Inventory**: Although domestic supply has decreased, demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level compared to the same period last year [5]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on going long at low prices [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [8]. - **Factor Analysis**: Due to heavy rain in Thailand in the next 2 - 10 days, the risk of floods has increased, which may cause the rubber price to rise. Bulls believe that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may limit rubber production growth, the seasonal pattern usually turns bullish in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - economic expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected [8][9]. - **Industry Data**: As of August 28, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.78%, 1.76 percentage points lower than the previous week and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. All - steel tire exports were good. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.57%, 0.19 percentage points higher than the previous week and 4.06 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The downstream inventory of semi - steel tire factories was slow to consume. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 126.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons or 0.5% from the previous month. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 46.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. As of August 31, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 47.34 (- 0.36) million tons [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14880 (+ 30) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1830 (+ 0) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1840 (+ 5) US dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9400 (+ 50) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11650 (0) yuan [12]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish. In the short - term, the rubber price is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [13]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 10 yuan to 4878 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 198 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The cost side remained stable, with the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke at 660 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene at 840 (0) US dollars/ton. The spot price of caustic soda was 870 (0) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The overall operating rate of PVC was 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. Among them, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 77.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% [15]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% [15]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 31.2 million tons (+ 0.6), and social inventory was 89.6 million tons (+ 4.4) [15]. - **Strategy**: In the domestic situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, with a weakening export outlook and poor fundamentals, it is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies [15]. 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [17]. - **Factor Analysis**: Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward adjustment space. The production of pure benzene has been fluctuating at a moderate level, and the supply is still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and styrene production has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has been rising [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of pure benzene in East China was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of styrene was 7000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7040 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton; the basis was - 40 yuan/ton, a weakening of 156 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 127.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 344.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between EB contract 1 and contract 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton; the upstream operating rate was 78.1%, a decrease of 0.40%; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 19.65 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons; the weighted operating rate of the three S products was 43.84%, an increase of 0.24%; the operating rate of PS was 59.90%, an increase of 2.40%, the operating rate of EPS was 58.35%, a decrease of 2.63%, and the operating rate of ABS was 70.80%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory starts to decline, the styrene price may rebound [18]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [20]. - **Factor Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support on the cost side. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory has decreased from a high level, providing support for the price. The seasonal peak season may be approaching, and the procurement of raw materials for agricultural films has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 7247 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 3 yuan/ton, a strengthening of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.09%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.08 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The LL1 - 5 spread was 7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 1 yuan/ton [20]. - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to the Korean ethylene clearance policy, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards [20]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [21]. - **Factor Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, resulting in relatively high supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has rebounded from a seasonal low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the main contract was 6954 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, a weakening of 11 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 80.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 55 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.30 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons, and the port inventory was 5.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.18 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The LL - PP spread was 293 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 16 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [21]. 3.8 Polyester 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract fell 24 yuan to 6810 yuan, the PX CFR price fell 3 US dollars to 843 US dollars, the basis was 99 yuan (+ 1) after conversion at the RMB central parity rate, and the 11 - 1 spread was 48 yuan (- 4) [23]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%, and the operating rate in Asia was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. There were few changes in domestic plants [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. Some PTA plants had maintenance or unexpected shutdowns, while others were in the process of restarting or commissioning [23]. - **Import**: In August, South Korea exported 37.6 million tons of PX to China, an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to the same period last year [23]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory was 389.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24 million tons [23]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The PXN was 246 US dollars (- 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 94 US dollars (- 3) [23]. - **，**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains high, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA plants, with the overall operating rate at a low level. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory levels, and the terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, providing support for the valuation at the lower end. However, due to the lack of upward drivers currently and the reduction in the amount of unexpected PTA maintenance compared to previous expectations, the PXN has limited upward momentum. The valuation is currently at a moderate level, and the terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. It is advisable to follow the trend of crude oil and look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends, including short - term oscillations, short - term weakening, and short - term rebounds, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market expectations [1][3][4]. - The stock market has potential for continuous growth in the second half of the year, while long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively due to factors like liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, with a 0.47% week - on - week increase. The daily output of clean coal was 260,000 tons, up 300 tons week - on - week, and the inventory was 2.895 million tons, down 54,000 tons week - on - week. Due to the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of coke price increases, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 36.52%, with a 0.34% week - on - week increase. The daily output was 16,205 tons, up 0.5% week - on - week. The cost side is supported, but the downstream demand is expected to decline during the military parade, and the supply is increasing. The short - term price decline is limited, but the medium - to - long - term price will tend to decline [3]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: In the week ending August 22, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 1.3439 million barrels per day. The weekly crude oil shipments from Russian ports decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day. The inventory decline was slightly lower than market expectations. The short - term trend is oscillating weakly [1]. Metal Products - **Rebar**: On August 27, the domestic steel market declined weakly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 20 yuan to 3,010 yuan per ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,334 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Supply is expected to shrink due to environmental protection restrictions, and demand is currently weak but expected to improve in September. The steel price will oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silver**: The remarks from the New York Fed President opened up the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The overnight dollar decline boosted precious metals, and silver is still oscillating upward [7]. - **Gold**: The influence on the Fed's independence and the market's concern about stagflation in the U.S. are positive for gold. The short - term rebound is due to the expectation of an interest rate cut, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The predicted export volume of Brazilian soybeans from August 24 to 30 is 1.6307 million tons, down from 1.8459 million tons last week. The domestic soybean price is currently fluctuating within a narrow range. With the upcoming increase in new soybean supply and limited demand, the domestic soybean price will remain weakly stable in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month. The financial market weakness and the decline in crude oil prices are suppressing the palm oil price. The short - term trend is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand are rising steadily. The export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber from Vietnam in the first seven months decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the export volume to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The domestic natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons, a 1.1% decline. The short - term adjustment is followed by a medium - term upward - oscillating trend [4]. - **Pig**: On August 27, the national average price of pork in agricultural product wholesale markets decreased by 0.4%. The national pig price has stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term market is expected to have a small - scale rebound, but the amplitude is limited. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and pig farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 2,250 yuan per ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.36% to 83.76%. The port inventory increased, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2,395 yuan. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash nationwide is 1,294 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently. The weekly output increased by 1.33%, and the inventory increased by 0.9%. The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is oscillating weakly. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1,305 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene decreased by 16 yuan to 6,994 yuan per ton. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.2%. The commercial inventory decreased, but it is still higher than the same period in the previous two years. The market price is oscillating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 7,040 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [10]. Others - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months. The profit of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly. The stock market has potential for continuous growth, and long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively. It is recommended to short long - term bonds at key resistance levels [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In 2025, the bottle chip capacity is still growing, with an expected growth rate of about 9.1%. The current production is stable, and the downstream industries have stable or slightly increasing operating rates. The market is in the peak consumption season for soft drinks, and with the reduction in production by major manufacturers, the inventory is slowly decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate upward [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including market trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and investment suggestions for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper contract give back the previous day's gains, with spot copper at 79,585 yuan, and premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong at 130 and 65 yuan/ton respectively [2] - The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list, which may make related projects eligible for federal funding or simplified licensing procedures [2] - Shanghai copper faces strong resistance at the integer level, and short positions at high levels are recommended to be held [2] Aluminum - On the day, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with East China spot prices falling to par [3] - At the end of August to September, there is an increasing expectation of smelter production cuts and maintenance, and transportation restrictions in central and northern China lead to regional supply shortages [6] - The short - term fundamentals of aluminum are improving, but the high inventory of the outer market and the insufficient expected increase in domestic lead - acid battery consumption limit the rebound space [6] - It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [6] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising [3] - Supply surplus is emerging, with northern spot transactions falling below 3,200 yuan, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [3] - The 3,000 - yuan level provides temporary support, and short - term long positions can be considered if the futures discount continues to widen [3] Zinc - Overseas and domestic mine - end increments are being realized, TC continues to rise, and domestic smelters are highly motivated to increase production [4] - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and zinc inventory is continuously becoming visible, putting pressure on Shanghai zinc [4] - With the approaching peak season in September and the expected Fed rate cut, the macro - level is slightly optimistic, but it does not resonate well with the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, with dull market trading [7] - Traders have a strong willingness to support prices, and the premium range of mainstream electrowon nickel remains at - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week [7] - Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions slightly and closed with a positive line just below 270,000 yuan [8] - Spot tin rose to 270,000 yuan, at par with the 2509 contract, and the strength of spot pricing should be monitored [8] - Tin prices still have the intention to rebound, and long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and market trading shrank [9] - Some miners sold goods during the futures price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply [9] - After the futures price dived, there was temporary reluctance to sell, and the market is bullish in the short - term with risk control [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures decreased positions and declined, affected by the weakening coking coal price and the stable expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy [10] - In terms of fundamentals, supply in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan increased this month, and demand also followed up, with a significant increase in polysilicon production scheduling in August [10] - The short - term sentiment makes the futures price weak, and the support level at 8,300 yuan/ton should be observed [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to fluctuate [11] - After last week's industry meeting, the spot price of N - type re -投料 rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and actual transactions need to be tracked [11] - The inventory pressure of polysilicon is greater than that of silicon wafers, and production scheduling in August is likely to decline to repair the supply - demand structure [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of slightly bullish oscillations, awaiting the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. The ratings for each variety are as follows: oil prices are expected to be slightly bearish with oscillations; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate; LLDPE, PP, and PL are expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hardening of the US stance towards Russia is the main reason for the recent strengthening of crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the chemical sector continues to be strong, awaiting policy implementation. The polyester chain performs best, while the pure benzene and styrene chains underperform. Polyolefins saw a late - stage price increase, and ethylene glycol's low port inventory supports its price [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Amidst warming macro - sentiment and continuous geopolitical disturbances, oil prices rebounded slightly after stabilizing. However, with OPEC+ accelerating supply release, high US production, and the potential decline of high - operating refineries in China and the US, the rebound's sustainability is limited. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations should be monitored [10]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are outweighed by the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine, Middle - East, and US - Venezuela situations. The geopolitical premium for asphalt has resurfaced, supporting its cost. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined from its high, and the refinery's continuous return to operation has driven the spread down. The high premium of asphalt futures is supported, but its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the geopolitical premium for high - sulfur fuel oil has returned. Although the increase in heavy - oil supply is more certain, factors such as the attack on Russian refineries, the attack on the Druzhba pipeline, and US sanctions on Chinese fuel - oil - importing enterprises have contributed to the price increase. The high cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil also supports its price. However, the price disturbance caused by geopolitical escalation is short - term, and changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its valuation is low. Fundamentally, the pressure on domestic refined - oil supply may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation, following the fluctuations of crude oil [13]. - **PX**: With the overall oscillation of crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices, there is still some support at the cost end. The new PTA production line has started production, and with the continuous improvement of terminal polyester and textile demand, the price of PX is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend under low - inventory conditions. It is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, paying attention to the support at 6750 - 6800 [14]. - **PTA**: The new production line has started production, and the pattern of inventory reduction remains unchanged. There is short - term cost support and a favorable macro - sentiment. In the medium - term, the pattern is expected to improve in August - September, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The recent positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. In Asia, South Korea plans to shut down and overhaul cracking units in October, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub has risen. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, but the decline rate has slowed. The market is trading on the expected increase in inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is driven by sentiment and may be slightly bullish. In the medium - term, if no specific de - capacity policies are implemented, it may return to the fundamental trading of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Styrene**: The direct sales to downstream have decreased, and the arrival of supplementary goods has increased, leading to inventory accumulation at the port and a price decline. With the news of de - capacity in China and South Korea, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have rebounded. In September - October, with more maintenance plans, the supply - demand situation may reverse, and it is possible to try to expand profits in the September - October period. Fundamentally, it is still bearish, but short - selling is against the trend in the short - term due to factors such as production - limit policies for the September parade, continuous release of macro - policies, and coal - mine safety accidents [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Despite high domestic supply pressure, the visible inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. According to the shipping and arrival schedules, the port inventory will continue to decline in early September. The short - term fundamentals are moderately positive, and the low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season provide good support. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the EG09 - 01 reverse - spread position should be held [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is waiting for cost guidance from upstream products. The upstream polymerization cost oscillates without obvious guidance, and the price of short - fiber oscillates within a range. Fundamentally, it has weakened slightly, and the production - sales ratio has slowed down. Without obvious positive demand stimuli, the processing fee is expected to remain in a low - level range. The absolute value of short - fiber follows the fluctuations of raw materials and oscillates in the short - term [21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited, and the processing fee is passively compressed. As the peak season ends, demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the polyester factories' willingness to adjust their operating rates in September. The price oscillates, and the absolute value follows the fluctuations of raw materials [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The recent news of China's chemical - capacity policy has boosted the market sentiment, but the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for buying at low prices in the far - month can be monitored [27]. - **Urea**: The actual demand is insufficient, and the export release is slow. Without positive support under the unchanged fundamentals, the futures price is under pressure. Before the actual export release, the market is in a wait - and - see mode, and the futures price is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of exports [25]. - **LLDPE**: The futures price has rebounded slightly. The news of domestic device overhauls to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry and the news of South Korean petrochemical capacity elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The short - term oil price has rebounded slightly, and the macro - level still has capital games. The fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, paying attention to the demand during the peak season [29]. - **PP**: The futures price oscillates. The news of domestic device overhauls and the expectation of South Korean petrochemical device elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price oscillates in the short - term, and the supply side of PP still has an increasing trend. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, with low operating rates in the plastic - weaving and injection - molding industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **PL**: In the short - term, it follows the oscillation of PP. The short - term sentiment in the olefin sector has been boosted by the news from China and South Korea, but the downstream buying enthusiasm has decreased. The trading volume of propylene enterprises has decreased, and the price has moved down slightly. The short - term futures price follows the fluctuations of PP, and the polypropylene processing fee represented by PP - PL is the focus of the market [33]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has improved, and PVC has weakly stabilized. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream has started autumn maintenance, production has declined, downstream operating rates have changed little, and low - price purchases have increased. The anti - dumping policy may take effect within a month, and export expectations are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the driving force coming from the improvement of market sentiment and the pressure from inventory accumulation [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase may slow down. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the inventory replenishment demand from non - aluminum industries is approaching the end, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts in the near - month. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in the October contract at high prices. For the January contract, it is recommended to buy on dips because the expectations of alumina and MHP production cannot be falsified, and the high operating rate of alumina supports the demand for caustic soda [35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, and others have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 8 with a change of - 4 [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is 8 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 72650 [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 198 with a change of - 21 [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part provides data monitoring on the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2486.32, up 0.97%, and the energy index on August 25, 2025, is 1226.46, up 0.84% for the day [281][283].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still downward pressure in the medium and long term. Support factors include the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, the narrowing of the discount of crude oil from the Middle East to Asia, the incomplete dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the structural differentiation of fuel demand at the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer. Suppressing factors include the expectation of OPEC+ to accelerate the exit from production cuts, the increase in US exports, seasonal refinery maintenance, and cautious macro - sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose 1.68% to 490.9 yuan/barrel, breaking through the recent oscillation range. The prices of WTI and Brent main contracts remained at $62.84/barrel and $67.04/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.21/barrel to $1.35/barrel (a 542.86% increase), and the SC - WTI spread rose from $4.41/barrel to $5.55/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was stable at $4.2/barrel. The spread between the near - month and the third - consecutive contract of SC narrowed from - 4.2 yuan/barrel to - 2.0 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain** - **Supply**: US crude oil exports rebounded to over 4 million barrels per day in August - September, the highest since the beginning of the year. OPEC+ accelerating the lifting of 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts still suppresses market sentiment. UK sanctions on Iranian business entities may increase the risk of restricted Iranian crude oil exports [2]. - **Demand**: The US gasoline demand peak season is nearing its end, and refinery maintenance may suppress short - term crude oil processing demand. As of the week ending August 15, commercial crude oil inventories in the US dropped by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels. The Asian market is significantly differentiated, with Singapore's light/medium distillate inventories rising to 17 - week and 6 - week highs, and fuel oil inventories dropping to an 8 - week low [2]. - **Inventory**: US natural gas inventories have been accumulating less than expected, indicating energy demand resilience. The narrowing of the SC far - month discount may imply increased spot purchasing momentum in the Asia - Pacific region [2]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still downward pressure in the medium and long term. Later, attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy adjustments, the sustainability of US exports, and changes in Asian distillate inventories [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of most crude oil futures and spot contracts increased on August 21, 2025. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads widened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of most fuel oil futures and spot contracts increased on August 21, 2025. Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased, while some US distillate inventories increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year, due to refinery maintenance and the price advantage of WTI in Asia [7][8]. - **Demand**: Air Canada expects flights to operate close to the normal schedule tomorrow [9]. - **Inventory**: US natural gas inventories increased by 13 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 15, less than expected. Singapore's light and medium distillate inventories rose to multi - week highs, and fuel oil inventories dropped to an 8 - week low [10][11]. - **Market Information**: The UK imposed sanctions on an Iranian business tycoon and several key enterprises in his network [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories of various types of oil products [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals. With the opening of the import window, the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices, while downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - The alumina market is influenced by policy changes and supply - demand imbalances. The overall supply is tight, and the actual demand is weak [15][31]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by overseas sanctions and domestic inventory changes. The domestic price is relatively resistant to decline compared with the external market [23]. - The zinc market has a bearish fundamental situation with increasing domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, but the LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The production of recycled lead is reduced due to losses, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [42][43]. - The nickel market has a large supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, waiting for macro changes [48]. - The stainless steel market is affected by external demand and cost factors. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - The tin market is in a tight - balance state of supply and demand. The supply of ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [62]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - The polysilicon market has an oversupply situation in August, but the spot price is rising. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [72]. - The lithium carbonate market may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise after the stabilization of the commodity index [77]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,540 yuan/ton, down 0.05%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 732 lots to 460,600 lots. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: In July, China's scrap copper imports increased by 3.73% month - on - month to 183,200 tons, and refined copper exports increased by nearly 50% month - on - month to 118,398 tons. On August 20, Blue Moon Metals obtained at least $140 million in financing for the Nussir copper project in Norway, which is expected to be put into production in September 2027 [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market focuses on the future interest - rate cut rhythm. The supply of copper ore has been alleviated, and the inflow of imported goods exerts pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows rigid procurement [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term supply increase puts pressure on copper prices; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [12]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose by 80 yuan to 20,125 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 73 lots to 9,553 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [10]. - **Important Information**: The four - ministry notice affects the recycled aluminum industry. In July, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 85 yuan/ton compared with June, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan/ton. On August 21, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 66 tons [10][11][27][29]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the overall market supply is tight. The actual demand is weak [15][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the aluminum price; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [16][17][32][33]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose by 100 yuan to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,003 lots to 564,100 lots. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased [19]. - **Important Information**: The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal. The White House is considering a tri - party meeting. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed in July [19][20][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas sanctions on Russian aluminum and the Jackson Hole meeting affect the market. The domestic inventory decline may make the domestic price relatively resistant to decline [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates with the external market in the short - term; recommend short - term arbitrage strategies and waiting and seeing for options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose by 0.09% to 22,265 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1,549 lots to 216,200 lots. The spot trading in Shanghai was weak [35]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared with August 18. The safety inspection in northern lead - zinc mines has increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the terminal consumption is weak. The LME zinc price may be supported in the short - term [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [38]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 fell by 0.45% to 16,740 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the Shanghai lead index increased by 3,663 lots to 96,400 lots. The spot trading of refined lead was difficult [40]. - **Important Information**: As of August 21, the social inventory of lead ingots was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared with August 18 [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The consumption is weak, and the loss of recycled lead smelters is expanding, resulting in a reduction in production [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell by 360 yuan to 119,830 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,803 lots. The spot premium of different types of nickel increased [45][46]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 12,600 tons, and from January to June, the supply surplus was 180,000 tons [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel supply surplus is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the report Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract SS2510 fell by 35 yuan to 12,795 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased by 3,900 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel is given [50]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel casting project in Zhejiang started construction. The sample inventory in Foshan decreased slightly, while the social inventory in 89 warehouses increased [51][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The external demand is affected by the global economy and tariffs, and the price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate widely; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage and selling out - of - the - money put options [53][56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,960 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The spot price of tin ingots decreased [59]. - **Important Information**: In June 2025, the global refined tin supply shortage was 3,500 tons, and from January to June, the supply shortage was 7,800 tons [60]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's attitude affects the market. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production of smelters is affected. The market is in a tight - balance state [61][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate; recommend waiting and seeing for options [63][64]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose by 3.66% to 8,635 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable [65][66]. - **Important Information**: A product of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang [67]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is in a tight - balance state with high inventory, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to operate within a range; recommend participating in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts; recommend waiting and seeing for options [68]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures oscillated narrowly and closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The spot price of polysilicon increased [69][70]. - **Important Information**: The US government tightened the approval of renewable energy projects [71]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is an oversupply in August, but the spot price is rising, and it is recommended to buy on dips [72]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips; recommend conducting a positive arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options and buying call options [73]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate 2511 fell by 140 yuan to 82,760 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased by 21,134 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. - **Important Information**: A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter. The tax department exposed tax - evasion cases in the "new three" fields. The new - energy vehicle market shows growth [75][76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price may continue to adjust at a high level in the short - term, and there may be an opportunity for a second - round rise [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy after a sufficient correction; recommend waiting and seeing for arbitrage; recommend selling out - of - the - money put options of 2511 [78][79][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the under - performance of domestic economic and financial data. Different metals have various supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper may see a slight inventory build - up in August but a tight - balance pattern after the off - season; aluminum is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in August; zinc shows an external - strong and internal - weak short - term trend; nickel's short - term fundamentals are average; stainless steel's fundamentals are weak; lead is expected to maintain low - level oscillations; tin is in a supply - demand double - weak situation; industrial silicon may turn from a slight de - stocking to an over - supply situation; and lithium carbonate has a large short - term upward price elasticity and strong downward support [1][4][7][8][11][12][15][16][18] Summary by Metal Types Copper - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 78.31, and the three - month import profit increased by 128.05. The LME inventory increased by 1200, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. Downstream orders have support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading is okay. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper may be restricted, and attention should be paid to its impact on refined copper consumption. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market focuses on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 70, and the spot import profit increased by 26.99 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, and 1 - 6 months' aluminum ingot imports provide an increment. August is a seasonal off - season for demand, which may improve slightly in the middle and late months. Aluminum exports improve month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declines, and overseas demand drops significantly. An inventory build - up is expected in August. Pay attention to demand during the short - term off - season and consider far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage under the low - inventory pattern [4] Zinc - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 [7] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has difficulty rising, while import TC increases. In August, the smelting increment is further realized, and overseas mine increments in the second quarter exceed expectations. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas L inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term: suggest waiting and observing; medium - long - term: consider short positions. Hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to month - on - month positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 1776 [8] - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Overall demand is weak, and premiums are stable recently. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged. Short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - side is mainly about anti - involution policy games. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have passive production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with some restocking due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chrome iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan slightly decrease, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged. Fundamentals are generally weak, and pay attention to future policy trends [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 29.45, and the LME库存 decreased by 1850 [12] - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices oscillate this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production maintains a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, this week's terminal consumption de - stocking and lead ingot purchasing are weak. It is expected that lead prices will maintain low - level oscillations next week [12] Tin - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the spot import profit increased by 4836.19, and the LME库存 increased by 85 [15] - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices fluctuate widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August, and overseas production has some uncertainties. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. The domestic inventory fluctuates and rises, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a squeeze - out risk. Short - term: suggest short - selling at high prices; medium - long - term: hold at low prices near the cost line [15] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 135, and the 553 East China basis increased by 85 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The restart of Xinjiang's leading enterprises is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production slightly increases. In August, there is a slight de - stocking. The restart progress of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises will determine future supply - demand balance. Short - term: if either reaches full production, supply will be in excess. Medium - long - term: the industry has a large over - capacity, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From August 14th to 20th, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract increased by 6560 [16][23] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by factors such as de - stocking data and production resumption expectations, the market is strong. Upstream lithium salt producers are willing to sell, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trading among traders is more active. The core contradiction is the long - term over - supply and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show an increase in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and there were some disturbances in the scrap copper and recycled copper markets. An 8 - month supply - full pattern was expected to lead to a small inventory build - up, but the market might focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory situations [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply - side issues included difficulties in the increase of domestic TC and an increase in imported TC. Demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience. Overseas, there might be a phased supply shortage. Short - term strategy was to wait and see, long - term was a short - position configuration, and there were opportunities for positive spreads in different aspects [3]. - Nickel's supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel's supply decreased due to some passive production cuts, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some increased restocking, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policies [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply - side issues included weak scrap production and high recycled lead costs. Demand was not strong enough to cover the supply increase, and lead prices were expected to remain low and volatile next week [10]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply - side saw domestic smelter production cuts and uncertain overseas复产. Demand was weak in some areas and there was a risk of squeezing stocks in the LME. Short - term strategy was to short at high prices, and long - term was to hold at low prices near the cost line [12]. - Industrial silicon's production in Xinjiang was less than expected, while that in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly. In the short term, there was a small inventory reduction, and in the long term, it was expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [13]. - Carbonate lithium prices were strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction and production disturbances. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - side disturbances. In the short term, prices had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support [15]. Summaries by Metals Copper - The spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit data of copper from August 13th to 19th were presented, showing changes in these indicators. The macro - sentiment and fundamental conditions of the copper market were analyzed, and the inventory situation was predicted [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum prices, inventory, and import profit from August 15th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, and inventory trends in August were analyzed [2]. Zinc - Zinc price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and strategies for different time horizons were proposed [3]. Nickel - Nickel price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, premium, and inventory. Supply, demand, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and investment opportunities were mentioned [6]. Stainless Steel - Price data of different types of stainless steel from August 13th to 19th were provided. Supply, demand, cost, and inventory conditions were analyzed, and policy attention was emphasized [9]. Lead - Lead price data from August 13th to 19th were presented, including spot price, inventory, and import profit. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [10]. Tin - Tin price data from August 13th to 19th were given, including import and export profits, inventory, and position. Supply - side and demand - side situations were analyzed, and investment strategies were proposed [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon price data from August 13th to 19th were provided, including basis and warehouse receipts. Production and inventory situations were analyzed, and short - term and long - term trends were predicted [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium price data from August 13th to 19th were shown, including spot price, basis, and warehouse receipts. Market factors affecting prices were analyzed, and price trends were predicted [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high. Under the influence of internal and external positive factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short-term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward movement. The market risk appetite is still high, and the gold price may be disturbed in the short term, but the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still high, providing support for the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, but will be mainly based on fundamental logic in the medium term. The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September boosts the copper price, while the domestic copper downstream demand is weak, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly. The recent decline in the US dollar index, but the pressure on the downstream demand of aluminum, leads to the weak operation of the aluminum price. The production and inventory of alumina both increase, with a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea reduces the bauxite shipment volume, and considering the anti-involution market may continue, attention can be paid to the opportunity of laying out long positions in the far month. The zinc price is under great pressure due to the increase in inventory and the recovery of supply. Considering the potential risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, short selling should be cautious, and the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions can still be continuously concerned before the peak season. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remains stable, and the demand side performs generally. The nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading and wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions. In the long term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The price of raw material nickel iron rises steadily, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and steel mills resume production one after another after profit repair. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of steel mills. The stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, dominated by the macro situation. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading, wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between futures and spot. Fundamentally, tin is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. After a full correction, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price. The supply of industrial silicon in the southwest and northwest regions resumes, with great hedging pressure and strong market sentiment. The polysilicon has an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits. The resource end of scrap steel is frequently disturbed, and the short-term replenishment volume of the downstream is large, with limited subsequent replenishment space. The cost of electric furnace valley electricity provides a short-term support range for rebar, and the upward driving force follows coal. The upward driving force of hot-rolled coil follows the cost support anchored by coal, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The near-month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity in the far month. The anti-involution in ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is long-term, and in the short term, it is mainly affected by macro positives, with prices showing a strong trend. The glass still has a weak reality but strong expectations, with a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The soda ash still has a weak reality, affected by supply disturbances and macro positives, also showing a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The high-level meeting mentioned "anti-involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the supply-side reform in 2015. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short term at the trading level, short positions on the market should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. The logic of coke is the same as that of coking coal, and the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium should be mainly grasped. The MPOB report is less bearish than expected, and the production in August may be affected by heavy rainfall, with a short-term positive expectation difference. Indonesia's official announcement of implementing B50 next year brings a long-term "strong expectation" for palm oil. The expected reduction in soybean arrivals, the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, and the opening of the export trade flow bring the expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, leading to a revaluation of soybean oil. The USDA's reduction of the new crop area in August and the Sino-US trade relationship lead to the firmness of the CBOT soybean price and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybean exports, supporting the upward movement of soybean oil from the raw material cost side. The reduction in the production of rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine and the less-than-expected increase in the production of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price of rapeseed oil in the new crushing season. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary ruling that Canadian rapeseed is dumped will increase the customs duty deposit from August 14, bringing the expectation of a significant reduction in subsequent rapeseed supply. Cotton increases in positions and rises in the short term, dominated by the logic of a short squeeze in the near month. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of the sliding duty quota. White sugar runs strongly, with the bottom divergence rebound of raw sugar and the peak season demand, but the height is limited, and attention should be paid to the range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000. The supply and demand of old crops tend to be tight, but the pressure of warehouse receipts is large, and the expected rebound space of C09 is limited. Considering the expected selling pressure of new-season corn during the autumn harvest and the reduction in planting cost, a bearish view is maintained for the C11 and C01 contracts. The supply and demand balance sheet of new-season US soybeans is tight. Under the current Sino-US trade policy, the expectation of the Brazilian premium remains firm. Under the expectation of an increase in import cost, MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, but currently, the pressure on the domestic spot is still large, and the low basis restricts the increase of the futures price in the short term. Overall, the idea of buying on dips should be adopted. The external quotation of pulp is raised, with the price of Brazilian pulp increasing by $20 per ton in August, and the domestic inventory shows a reduction; but the recent decline in commodity futures is expected to lead to a volatile operation. The fundamentals of the log spot have improved recently, mainly reflected in the increase in the external quotation and the reduction of domestic port inventory; however, the delivery pressure in Chongqing restricts the motivation of log bulls to take delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate between 810 - 840 yuan/m³. The near-month contract of live pigs is dragged down by the spot and is relatively weak. The inventory will gradually recover in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the weight reduction and consumption situation. There are peak season expectations for the 11 and 01 contracts. The meeting between the US and Russia has not reached an agreement yet, but the progress is good; OPEC+ continues to increase production; the peak consumption season in Europe and the US has reached its peak, and there is a weakening trend later. The short-term supply and demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent, following crude oil; the cost disturbance and the recovery of demand balance each other, with limited fluctuations. The rainfall in the domestic rubber-producing areas causes disturbances, and the raw material cost provides strong support; the inventory reduction speed is slow; and the state reserve conducts a large amount of dumping. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the fundamental situation of synthetic rubber is severe, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand; BR runs stably in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance situation of butadiene rubber plants. The supply of PTA has shrunk, and the crude oil price has slightly declined. The downstream load of polyester has decreased to 88%. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased. The overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, the supply side has shrunk, and the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed, and there is no independent market in the market currently. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The supply of short fiber has shrunk, and the downstream load of polyester has decreased. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased, and the overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, and the supply side has shrunk. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of crude oil is abundant, and the synthetic rubber market is severe, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid needs. PTA supply contracts, crude oil prices fall slightly, polyester downstream load drops to 88%, PTA port inventory decreases slightly, and polyester replenishment willingness is low. Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment weakens, overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance is postponed, and supply contracts. Short - fiber warehouse receipt registration is low, factory maintenance increases, and with a high basis, cost follows closely and there is no independent market. Pure benzene prices fall slightly, styrene shipments are active, crude oil prices weaken, styrene plant load recovers, and the basis weakens significantly. Urea export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient with limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support below. Macro sentiment is warm, there are many maintenance operations, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and prices fluctuate weakly. Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, macro is warm, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Macro sentiment is warm, maintenance decreases, downstream enters the off - season, supply pressure increases, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Spot is about to enter the peak season, spot prices are low, coking coal prices rise again, and macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of LPG is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand has a repair expectation; the warehouse receipts have reached a new high, and attention should be paid to the main contract delivery and the spread between September and October. The signal of the peak of the freight rate of the European container shipping line appears; the European ports are still congested; and there are many additional ships in August. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index futures may continue to run strongly due to abundant market liquidity and positive factors [1] - Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are reminded [1] - Gold price may be disturbed in the short term but has support from the expected interest rate cut in September [1] - Silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term and follow fundamental logic in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price may fluctuate strongly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and weak domestic downstream demand [1] - Aluminum price runs weakly due to the pressure on downstream demand [1] - Alumina has a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea and the anti - involution market bring opportunities for long positions in the far month [1] - Zinc price is under pressure from inventory increase and supply recovery, and short - selling should be cautious [1] - Nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] - Tin provides an opportunity of going long at a low price after a full correction [1] Black Metals - Rebar is supported by the cost of electric furnace valley electricity, and the upward driving force follows coal [1] - Hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward driving force follows coal - anchored cost support [1] - Iron ore has an upward opportunity in the far month, although the near - month is restricted by production cuts [1] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be strong due to long - term anti - involution and short - term macro positives [1] - Glass and soda ash show a pattern of near weakness and far strength [1] - Coke and coking coal: attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil has a short - term positive expectation difference and a long - term "strong expectation" [1] - Soybean oil is re - valued due to the expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and cost support [1] - Rapeseed oil is supported by production reduction and supply reduction expectations [1] - Cotton is affected by the short - squeeze logic in the near month, and attention should be paid to the time window and quota release [1] - White sugar runs strongly but with limited height [1] - Corn: C09 has limited rebound space, and C11 and C01 are bearish [1] - Soybean: MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and a dip - buying strategy is recommended [1] - Pulp is expected to fluctuate due to price increase and inventory reduction [1] - Log is expected to fluctuate within a certain range due to improved fundamentals and delivery pressure [1] - Live pigs' near - month contracts are weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and its related products (fuel oil, LPG) are affected by OPEC+ production increase and market demand trends [1] - Rubber (natural rubber, BR rubber) is affected by factors such as rainfall, inventory, and supply - demand fundamentals [1] - PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Urea has limited upward space due to export and demand, but has support below [1] Other - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may peak, with congested ports and additional ships [1]