Group 1 - Copper prices are under pressure due to concerns over tariffs, with LME copper closing down 0.69% at $9,784 per ton and Shanghai copper futures settling at 79,390 CNY per ton [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 2,125 tons to 97,400 tons, with a cancellation rate rising to 37.9% [1] - Domestic copper social inventory rose by over 10,000 tons week-on-week, while bonded zone inventory saw a slight decrease [1] Group 2 - Zinc prices also declined, with the Shanghai Zinc Index falling 1.41% to 22,049 CNY per ton, and LME zinc dropping $50 to $2,695.5 per ton [1] - Domestic zinc social inventory increased slightly to 89,100 tons, indicating a higher supply of zinc ore and expectations for increased zinc ingot availability [1] - The cash-to-three-month structure for LME zinc is declining, putting additional pressure on zinc prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas mine production is increasing smoothly, with expected growth of 40 - 50 tons in H2 and 5 tons from domestic mines, leading to a global zinc ore surplus of over 20 tons [5]. - Smelting losses have rapidly recovered, and overall smelting profits are expanding, with expected supply growth of around 15% in H2 and 7.4% for the whole year [4][5]. - Consumption was strong in H1, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.2%. However, the consumption intensity is still difficult to match the supply growth rate [4]. - Inventory is at a historical low, with apparent consumption stronger than actual consumption. As zinc alloy inventory increases and supply pressure grows, a negative feedback loop is expected [4][6]. - The strategy is to short and wait for the accumulation of social inventory [8]. Summary Based on Directory Zinc Ore - Overseas mainstream zinc mines are increasing production normally, and the year - on - year growth is expected to accelerate. In Q1, overseas mine production was 114 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5 tons (4.5%). In H2, overseas production is expected to increase by 40 - 50 tons year - on - year [11]. - Domestic zinc mines contribute limited incremental output, with an expected annual increase of only 5 tons [11]. - From January to May, domestic zinc ore production was 139.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5 tons, but the production rate and output are rising. From January to May, imported zinc ore was 220.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.5% [12]. Refined Zinc - During the off - season, the spot premium is weakening, indicating supply pressure. From January to June, China's refined zinc production was 324 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of only 1.9%. In July, the estimated output is 59 tons, with a possible year - on - year growth rate of 20%. The expected annual output for 2025 is 665 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.4% [31]. - Smelting losses have been rapidly repaired, and the rise in by - product prices has further expanded smelting profits. The industry - weighted smelting profit can reach 1,300 yuan/ton, increasing smelting enthusiasm [44]. - Zinc ingot inventory is at a low level, but there is a possibility of invisible inventory becoming visible. As supply growth is expected to remain around 15% in H2, a trend of inventory accumulation is expected during the off - season [47]. Downstream Consumption - Exports are driving galvanized consumption. From January to May, China's galvanized strip net exports were 547.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Although there may be some consumption overdraft, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about overseas consumption [52]. - Zinc alloy integration is hiding visible inventory. While zinc consumption has shown positive growth, it is still difficult to match the supply growth rate. As consumption weakens during the off - season, a negative feedback loop is expected, and the invisible inventory of zinc alloy will turn into visible inventory [59]. Terminal Consumption - Infrastructure investment is supporting consumption. From January to May, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 10.4% year - on - year, with power grid investment increasing by 19.8% year - on - year, driving the demand for domestic galvanized towers [7][62]. - The automotive industry has consumption pre - empted. From January to May, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, but the channel inventory increased from 2.26 million to 2.59 million, indicating possible consumption pre - empted [7]. - The photovoltaic sector may see marginal improvement. From January to May, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times. Although the current consumption is at its lowest, there is a possibility of marginal repair in the later period [7]. - The home appliance sector has over - consumed. State subsidies in H1 drove home appliance and automobile consumption, but there is an issue of over - consumption [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [6] - **Pigs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [12] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Oscillating (short - term), Oscillating weakly (long - term) [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market is generally in a state of oscillation. Each variety is affected by different factors, including supply, demand, weather, and policy. For example, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate weakly due to factors such as good soybean growth and the palm oil production season, while protein meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term with cost support [5][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The U.S. soybean planting area is lower than expected, but the current growth is good. - **Industry Information**: As of June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. The 2025 U.S. soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the expected 83.655 million acres. As of June 1, 2025, the U.S. old - crop soybean inventory was 1.01 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year [5]. - **Logic**: The U.S. soybean planting area being slightly lower than expected and the quarterly inventory being higher than expected offset each other. The macro - environment has uncertainties, and the industrial side shows that U.S. soybean growth is good, and the palm oil production pressure may decrease marginally in June. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the oils and fats may continue to oscillate weakly, but factors such as trade uncertainties and the expected increase in overseas biodiesel consumption of oils may support prices [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The strong Brazilian soybean premium provides cost support for the Dalian soybean meal futures. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 41.63 yuan/ton, up 3.71% week - on - week [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the U.S. soybean area is in line with expectations, but the quarterly inventory is increased. Brazil's soybean exports are strong, and China mainly purchases Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, soybean arrivals increase, oil mills' inventory accumulates, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, but cost support exists in the long - run [6]. - **Outlook**: The U.S. soybean is expected to oscillate in a range. Domestic soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price points on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The imported corn auction was sold at a premium, and the spot price remains firm. - **Industry Information**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the domestic corn average price was 2438 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is mainly rising. The trade volume is reluctant to sell, and the demand is squeezed by wheat. The imported corn auction has limited volume and was sold at a premium. New - crop corn growth is affected by weather [8]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the supply - demand gap expectation, the price may rise, but there may be callbacks due to potential negative impacts of policy - grain auctions [8]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the impact of subsequent rainfall needs attention. - **Industry Information**: On July 1, 2025, the Henan live pig (foreign ternary) price was 15.15 yuan/kg, up 1% month - on - month, and the live pig futures closing price was 13,865 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but farmers still have the intention to hold back. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets is increasing, and in the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The demand is weak, and the inventory is partially transferred [9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the average slaughter weight is decreasing, farmers' intention to hold back still exists, and it is currently the off - season for consumption [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The rubber price rose in the afternoon following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Vietnam's natural rubber exports in the first five months of 2025 decreased by 18% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market rose, and the rubber price followed. The raw material price is firm, providing bottom - support. The supply is expected to increase, but the demand is expected to decrease [11]. - **Outlook**: Before new fundamental guidance emerges, it may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price followed the overall commodity trend, first falling and then rising. - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment is relatively warm, and the futures price is stable and oscillating. The fundamental trading is not significant, and it mainly follows the trend of natural rubber and the overall commodity market. The overall operating level has declined, and the inventory has slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures has slowed down due to the upward revision of the U.S. cotton planting area. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the number of registered warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,211, and the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2][13]. - **Logic**: In the new - crop season, the production of China and other major cotton - producing countries is expected to increase. The U.S. cotton planting area is revised upward. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing support [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate between 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Due to the lack of positive factors, the sugar price continues to lack upward momentum. - **Industry Information**: As of July 1, 2025, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [15]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar - making season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated imported sugar arrivals. Internationally, the new - crop production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the pulp futures maintain a weak operation. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp import volume remains high, the price is in a downward trend, the demand is in the off - season, and the domestic inventory is high. The pulp price is under pressure to fall, but it is risky to short at the current low level [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules [16]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The market has returned to fundamental - driven, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The log market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inventory has decreased due to reduced arrivals, but it is the consumption off - season. The short - term fundamentals are in a weak balance, and the far - month contracts are expected to be weak due to the weak fundamentals [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The far - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report also lists the sections for data monitoring of various varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [20][39][52]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak", with corresponding explanations of expected price changes and the time period being the next 2 - 12 weeks [169].

Report Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows mixed performance. Soybean meal rebounds from a low level, while oils fluctuate. Hog prices decline, sugar continues to rise, and other products also present different trends influenced by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and upcoming reports [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - The 2509 contract rebounds from a low level as short - covering occurs before the USDA report. However, with abundant domestic imported soybeans, high oil - mill operation rates, and increasing supply and inventory, the futures price is still under pressure. Technically, it remains weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 2942 and resistance at 2974 [2]. Soybean Oil - The 2509 contract shows a volatile trend of first decline then rise, waiting for the US soybean planting report. Domestic soybean imports and oil - mill压榨量 are high, leading to relatively loose supply and rising inventory, pressuring the futures price. Technically, it turns weak, and a light - short - position strategy is suggested with support at 7920 and resistance at 8012 [3]. Palm Oil - The 2509 contract first declines then rises, narrowing the decline. Crude oil decline, increased Malaysian palm oil production, and slow exports, along with falling domestic import costs and inventory accumulation, pressure the price. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short - position strategy is recommended with support at 8256 and resistance at 8380 [6]. Cotton - The 2509 contract rises then falls as long - profit - taking occurs. Xinjiang's de - stocking and low imports support the price, but the textile off - season, few new orders, and reduced spinning - mill开机率 limit the upside. Technically, it remains strong, and a light - long - position strategy on dips is advised with support at 13695 and resistance at 13920 [7][9]. Sugar - The 2509 contract continues to rise in a volatile manner, boosted by the rebound of ICE raw sugar due to possible lower Brazilian production in June and the domestic consumption peak season. With low inventory and slow imports, the price is supported. Technically, it is strong, and a long - position strategy on dips is continued with support at 5780 [10]. Hog - The 2509 contract drops significantly from a high level. High inventory and reduced demand due to rising temperatures, increased substitute consumption, and school holidays pressure the price. Technically, it turns weak, and long - positions should be closed with support at 13750 and resistance at 13970 [12]. Egg - The 2508 contract opens low and closes high, showing a volatile rebound. Market speculation on lower summer egg - laying rates may reduce supply pressure, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and cautious trading limit the upside. Technically, short - positions should be closed with support at 3500 and resistance at 3574 [14]. Corn - The 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. Tight supply from low grassroots grain and wheat support are offset by import auction expectations and wheat substitution, resulting in a narrow - range market. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 2370 and resistance at 2386 [17]. Red Date - The 2509 contract falls from a high level. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may reduce production, but the traditional off - season and increasing inventory lead to a high - level adjustment. Technically, there is callback pressure, and long - positions should be reduced with support at 9500 and resistance at 9700 [18][20]. Apple - The 2510 contract shows a volatile negative trend. The expected production reduction did not materialize, but low inventory supports the price while substitute fruits impact consumption. A short - term trading strategy is recommended with support at 7646 and resistance at 7780 [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of zinc remains high, with a 7.2% year - on - year increase in supply in June and an expected output of 590,000 tons in July. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly. The negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. After the absolute price rises, the spot market trading becomes colder, and the spot premium drops rapidly. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to the change of social inventory [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$0.24/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 35 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 60 yuan/ton to 22,490 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 70 yuan/ton to 22,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,330 yuan/ton and closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,924 lots, a decrease of 64,900 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 140,186 lots, a decrease of 2,242 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,330 - 22,530 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,475 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The spot market premium continues to decline. The supply in June increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the expected output in July is still as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The social inventory has increased slightly, the finished product inventory of smelters has increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has begun to decline, and the negative feedback of invisible inventory may occur. The TC of the ore end has further increased, the smelting profit has expanded, and the smelting enthusiasm has further increased, so the supply pressure remains. After the absolute price rises, the spot market trading becomes colder, and the spot premium drops rapidly. After the macro - positive reaction, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated within a range, first declining and then rising, with a slight overall increase. In the future, geopolitical conflicts will continue to cause the rubber price to fluctuate repeatedly. Although the supply side is affected by weather and boosts the rubber price, the market has entered the off - season of consumption, and the overall supply and demand of rubber still present a relatively loose pattern. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound movement in the short term. Key factors to focus on include the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, weather disturbances in major rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][83] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 13,640 - 14,165 yuan/ton. As of the close on the afternoon of June 27, 2025, it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton, rising 145 points or 1.04% for the week [13] - **Spot Price**: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][20] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of June 27, 2025, the basis was maintained at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [24] Important Market Information - **International Events**: On June 23, Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which led to a nearly 9% drop in international oil prices and a rise in the US stock market. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently, but does not rule out the possibility of an early interest rate cut. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations [27] - **US Economic Data**: In June, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52, the consumer confidence index dropped by 5.4 points to 93, the first - quarter real GDP final value decreased by 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, and the initial jobless claims last week decreased by 10,000 to 236,000 [28] - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in June was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's dropped to 48.5 [29] - **Automobile Industry**: In May, the UK's automobile exports to the US decreased by 55.4% year - on - year, and the automobile production decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 49,810 vehicles, the lowest monthly output in 76 years. From January to May, China's automobile production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year, and the export of new energy vehicles increased by 64.6% year - on - year [29][32] Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly compared with the previous month, while the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. Thailand's production decreased significantly. The total production of major natural - rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, with a slight increase from the previous month [39] - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly production of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [43][47] - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of May 31, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [50] Demand - side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rate**: As of June 26, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.64%, an increase of 0.16% from the previous week [53] - **Automobile and Tire Production and Sales**: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The monthly sales volume was 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [57][60][65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 191,960 tons, a decrease of 880 tons from the previous week. As of June 22, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons or 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 780,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 506,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in the Qingdao area was 617,300 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51% [80] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. Recently, tapping work in major domestic and foreign producing areas has been affected by weather, resulting in limited raw material output and relatively short supply. However, there is a strong expectation of increased supply in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [82] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The finished product inventory was at a historical high, and downstream factories made purchases as needed. In the terminal automobile market, from January to May, the production and sales volume of national automobiles and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased slightly year - on - year. In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.18% [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise slightly [82] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound movement this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][84]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to low inventory support and a warming macro - environment. The market should pay attention to the Shanghai copper's test of the previous high pressure level [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper slightly rose to 78,810, with total positions increasing by 11,458 lots. The 07 - 08 spread on the board narrowed to 130, and the spot premium dropped 10 to 30. Downstream demand for high - priced copper was limited during the off - season [11] - LME market spreads also narrowed, with the 0 - 3 spread narrowing to $150/ton. The shortage of spot goods slightly eased, but LME inventory continued to decline by 1,200 to 93,475 tons. The high BACK structure caused by low LME inventory is difficult to ease in the short term [11] - The COMEX - LME spread widened to $1,214/ton. The high C - L premium due to the delayed US tariff implementation led to the continuous transfer of global inventory to COMEX. SHFE and LME will face continuous de - stocking pressure [11] - The macro - environment has improved. The sharp rise in A - shares has driven the market's bullish sentiment to spread to the commodity market, supporting the prices of Shanghai and London copper [11] 3.2. Industry News - A new preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona shows an initial cost of $1.24 billion and a post - tax net present value (NPV) of $1.4 billion. The underground mine can produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode per year in the first 15 years of its 23 - year lifespan. At a base price of $4.25 per pound, the internal rate of return (IRR) is 20%. At the current Comex high - grade copper price of $4.83 per pound, the NPV rises to $1.9 billion and the IRR rises to 24% [12] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the registration of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper produced by Houma Beitong Copper Industry Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 200,000 tons. It also cancelled the registration qualification of "Zhongtiaoshan" brand Grade A copper of Shanxi Beifang Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s Houma Smelter [12] - The case of Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. and Ajlan Brothers Mining Company's new joint venture entered the publicity period (June 16 - 25, 2025). The joint venture will engage in exploration, potential mining, operation, management, development, production, and sales of minerals in Saudi Arabia [13] - An employee of First Quantum's Trident died in a dump truck accident at Sentinel. The company will cooperate fully with the investigation, and operations in the accident area have been temporarily suspended [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall prices of non - ferrous metals show different trends. Copper prices may oscillate and rise, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, lead prices are relatively strong, zinc prices are affected by multiple factors with large fluctuations, tin prices will oscillate in a short - term, nickel prices may decline, lithium carbonate prices fluctuate narrowly, alumina prices will oscillate weakly, and stainless steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation [2][4][5][7][8][10][12][14][16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.65% to $9727/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78720 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78000 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 21000 tons [2]. - Market: The copper raw material market is tight, and low inventories may support price increases, but weakening domestic consumption limits the upside [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2566/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20345 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum is 2530 - 2590 dollars/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE weighted contract positions increased by 0.1 to 651000 lots, and warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 44000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.15 to 326500 tons [4]. - Market: Low inventories may push prices up, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 1.32% to 17181 yuan/ton. Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is limited by weak domestic consumption [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - Market: The export growth of lead - acid batteries has declined, and downstream consumption is weak. High smelting rates and other factors support the price [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.50% to 22017 yuan/ton. Market fluctuations are large due to repeated geopolitical disturbances [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased to 7200 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - Market: The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Geopolitical events may affect zinc ore exports [7]. Tin - Price: On June 25, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263000 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. It is expected to oscillate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and LME tin will oscillate between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Supply is short - term tight, and demand is in the off - season. The upstream and downstream are in a stalemate [8]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. It is expected that SHFE nickel will operate between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M will operate between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [10]. - Market: Downstream cost - profit inversion affects the price of nickel ore. Nickel iron, intermediate products, and nickel sulfate prices are under pressure [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index closed at 59977 yuan, up 0.33%. The LC2509 contract closed at 60880 yuan, up 0.30%. It is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. - Market: There are many news - driven factors, but marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost are limited [12]. Alumina - Price: On June 25, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.48% to 2909 yuan/ton. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - Market: The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and the price is expected to be anchored by the cost [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12540 yuan/ton, up 0.80%. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term [16]. - Market: Market demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Production cuts have eased the supply - demand contradiction [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - According to the USDA June report, in the 25/26 period, there will be significant increases in the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. The export volume of soybeans will increase the most, and the crushing volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will also rise. In the 24/25 period, the stock-to-use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline. Among the four major global oils and fats in the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [4][8][11][15][18]. - In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons. The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock-to-use ratio in the 25/26 period. In the 25/26 period, the production growth rate is slightly higher than the consumption growth rate, and the industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate [33][35][36]. - In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area in Canada will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The rapeseed crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, and exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, while the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons. In the EU, the rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again. In Australia, the rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare. In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons. The total production of rapeseed in the EU, Canada, Australia, Russia, and Ukraine will reach 50.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in 2024 [41][42][46][50][55]. - The production of Malaysian palm oil is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations. The production of Indonesian palm oil in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period. As of April 24, the biodiesel consumption in Indonesia this year was 4.44 billion liters. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires the implementation of B50 biodiesel in early 2026, but there is a need to increase production capacity [61][66][67][72]. - The soybean - palm oil price spread in India first declined and then rebounded. The soybean crushing profit in South America has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will significantly decrease after July. The front - end trading of palm oil supply pressure is basically over, and the subsequent rebound amplitude will be determined by the degree of demand improvement and crude oil prices [97][201]. - The actual domestic production capacity of the US soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. If the unannounced expansion plans are realized, the total production will increase to over 2.78 billion bushels per year by 2030. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. The South American soybean crushing profit has deteriorated, and the export of South American soybean oil will decline significantly after July. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oilseeds - **Production**: In the 25/26 period, the production of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase significantly. In the 24/25 period, the stock - to - use ratios of global rapeseed and peanuts will increase, while those of soybeans and sunflower seeds will decline [4][15]. - **Export**: In the 25/26 period, the export volume of soybeans will increase the most [8]. - **Crushing**: In the 25/26 period, the crushing volume of global soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds will increase [11]. Oils and Fats - **Production**: In the 24/25 period, the global production of oils and fats will increase by 6.5 million tons to 235 million tons. In the 25/26 period, the production of soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower oil will increase significantly, with a small increase in rapeseed oil [18][33]. - **Consumption**: Edible consumption will increase by 4.3 million tons to 164 million tons, and industrial consumption will increase by 1.02 million tons to 65.16 million tons in the 24/25 period. The industrial consumption growth rate is lower than the edible consumption growth rate in the 25/26 period [33][36]. - **Inventory and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The total supply increment is less than the consumption increment, leading to a decline in the ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio in the 25/26 period [33]. Rapeseed - **Canada**: In the 2025 - 26 period, the planned rapeseed sown area will be 8.8 million hectares, slightly lower than the five - year average. The production is expected to be 18 million tons, and the supply is expected to be 19.4 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. The crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly to 11 million tons, exports are expected to drop to a four - year low, and the inventory is expected to reach 2 million tons [41]. - **EU**: The rapeseed yield per unit area has been revised downwards again [42]. - **Australia**: The rapeseed sown area is expected to decrease by 1% to 3.4 million hectares, and the production is expected to decline by 6% to 5.7 million tons. The yield per unit area is revised down to 1.69 tons per hectare [46][50]. - **Russia and Ukraine**: In the 25/26 period, the rapeseed production in Russia will be 4.5 - 4.7 million tons, and in Ukraine, it will drop from 3.7 million tons to 3.4 million tons [55]. Palm Oil - **Malaysia**: The production is slightly higher than expected, with increases in Sarawak, Sabah, and Peninsular Malaysia. The export in May exceeded expectations [61]. - **Indonesia**: The production in March increased by 16.02% month - on - month, and exports increased by 2.68% month - on - month. In March, Indonesia started implementing the B40 biodiesel policy, and the palm oil consumption reached a record high for the same period [66][67]. India The soybean - palm oil price spread first declined and then rebounded [97]. US - **Soybean Crushing**: The actual domestic production capacity of the soybean crushing industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year in early 2025, a 14% increase. The USDA June report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in the 24/25 period is 2.42 billion bushels, and in the 25/26 period, it is 2.49 billion bushels [161]. - **Biodiesel**: The US biodiesel RVO is still in the proposal stage. The final RVO quantity may be lower than the proposal. Whether imported raw materials are used or not, the consumption of US soybean oil will increase, but the export supply of US soybean oil to the world will decrease [201]. Domestic Oils and Fats Due to the geopolitical conflict, the strength of US crude oil has driven up the price of oils and fats. The increase in the production of new - crop rapeseed globally in the 25/26 period is limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil in the near - term remains strong. If the US biodiesel RVO is lower than expected, it is advisable to buy on dips after the correction of domestic oils and fats. After September, as the new - crop rapeseed and sunflower oil are listed, the price of oils and fats may enter a weak and volatile state [201].