油脂油料产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

锡产业期现日报 テ 广发期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月28日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 涨跌幅 单位 现值 前值 涨跌 301800 295200 eeoo 2.24% 250 250 0 0.00% 元/吨 302300 295700 6600 2.23% 185.00 135.00 50.00 37.04% 美元/吨 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 -7.90% -17717.50 -16419.72 -1297.78 元/吨 7.85 7.89 - - 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 -740 -650 -90 -13.85% -360 -480 120 25.00% 元/吨 -90 -120 30 25.00% 370 -30 400 1333.33% 基本面数据(月度) | 指标 | 现值 | 前値 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月锡矿进口 | 11632 | 8714 | 2918 | 33.49% | 世 | | SMM精锡10月产量 | 16090 | 1051 ...

化工日报 | 2025-11-28 半钢胎开工率继续回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15280元/吨，较前一日变动+85元/吨；NR主力合约12205元/吨，较前一日变动+40 元/吨；BR主力合约10400元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前一 日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1725 美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10330元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. November is expected to see high imports, and it is difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland area. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits. [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. [6] PP (Polypropylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies (upstream) and the middle - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawn products is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level. [6] PVC - The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally declining, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, near - term export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates. [6] 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 801 | 2003 | 1985 | 2350 | 2350 | 2340 | 2585 | 234 | 317 | - 25 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/24 | 801 | 2053 | 2028 | 2360 | 2372 | 2340 | 2588 | 237 | 317 | 13 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2103 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | - | - | - | - 11 | - | |日度变化|0|15|25|2| - 5|0|0| - | - | - | - 6| - | [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 730 | 6750 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 14 | 6770 | - 20 | 69 | 11835 | | 2025/11/24 | 730 | 6760 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 17 | 6793 | - 20 | - | 11721 | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | - | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | - | - | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6699 | - 20 | - | 11701 | |日度变化| - | - | - 50 | - 50 | - 50 | - | - | - | - 8 | 10 | - | 0 | [6] PP (Polypropylene) | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 5900 | 695 | 6305 | 6265 | 6180 | 6766 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6357 | - 80 | 69 | 15733 | | 2025/11/24 | 5900 | 695 | 6285 | 6255 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 4 | 6372 | - 80 | - | 15733 | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | - | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | - | - | - | 6265 | - 70 | - | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | - | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | - | - | - | 6295 | - 70 | - | 15518 | |日度变化|0| - | - 45 | - 3 | 0 | - 16 | - | - | - | 30 | 0 | - | 0 | [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 2400 | 792 | 4490 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 426 | - | - | - 90 | | 2025/11/24 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 423 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化|0| - 10 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not changed significantly, with both supply and demand being weak. For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the valuation is currently low. If there are relevant policies, the market may rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong - side fluctuating trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 9115 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.33%) from the previous day's settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 237,648 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 39,555 lots, a change of - 870 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 9000 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8800 - 9000 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of November 27, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 129,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 421,000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot inventory), an increase of 2000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to move slightly upward. The current quoted price range was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week. The DMC quoted price of Shandong monomer enterprises was 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the DMC quoted prices of other domestic monomer enterprises were concentrated at 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, with individual enterprises also increasing their quotes by 100 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price remains stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is currently affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may have room to rise. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 56,195 yuan/ton and closing at 55,235 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 141,586 (143,043 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 324,070 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 (0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 28.10 (a 3.69% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW (a 4.17% change from the previous period), the weekly polysilicon output was 24,000.00 tons (a - 11.40% change from the previous period), and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a - 5.95% change from the previous period) [4][5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 (- 0.03) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, there will be significant production cuts in the southwest region, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Both supply and demand of polysilicon have weakened, with large overall inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. In November, old warehouse receipts were cancelled, and few new warehouse receipts were registered, resulting in more delivery games for near - month contracts. Currently, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policies are still being promoted, with large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [7][8].

PVC开工小幅提升，社会库存累库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 氯碱日报 | 2025-11-28 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4517元/吨（+28）；华东基差-57元/吨（-18）;华南基差-27元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4460元/吨（+10）；华南电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2830元/吨（+25）；电石利润-100元/吨（+25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-848元/吨（-28）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨（-25）；PVC出口利润-3.4美元/吨（-8.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存31.5万吨（-0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.6万吨（-2.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2238元/吨（+9）；山东32%液碱基差106元/吨（-40）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价750元/吨（-10）；山东 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

集运指数欧线期货主力合约涨超5%，报1448点。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 | | 。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比减少4 ， | . | | 76% . | 需求持续低迷 | | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 ...

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].