Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a rebound due to the continuous stimulation of events in Indonesia. For nickel, the short - term is in a strong atmosphere, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains. For stainless steel, the short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and the medium - to - long - term needs to focus on the resolution of supply - demand contradictions [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2602 opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a change of 3.92% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the holding volume was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. The price showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, and strong upward movement, driven by the fermentation of news of a significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore quota, combined with the drive of the external market and the entry of long - position funds. Attention should be paid to the details of Indonesia's quota policy implementation and the progress of the revision of the 2026 mineral benchmark price calculation formula [1] - **Nickel Ore**: According to Mysteel, recent new tender transactions in the nickel ore market have landed, and the overall nickel ore price has remained stable. The 1.3% nickel ore in southern China was transacted at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender from the northern Benguet mine landed at FOB $33.5. Considering the impact of rainy weather, the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream iron plants are still in a profit - loss state, and their mentality of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases may slow down. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December fell by $0.11 - 0.18/ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 128,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was still cold, and downstream buyers were cautious. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 6,900 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,922 (+1,320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 (-162) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, affected by news, the fundamentals show high inventory and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. Be vigilant against callbacks caused by rapid short - term price increases. The strategy for the single - side operation is to sell hedging on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 23, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,840 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the holding volume was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a pattern of "passively following the rise, increasing volume and decreasing positions", driven by the strong rise of Shanghai nickel and breaking through important resistance levels technically [3] - **Spot**: The futures market weakened, downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and they mainly purchased on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,975 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,950 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 100 to 350 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy - The pattern of weak supply and demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged. The short - term price may fluctuate with nickel prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the resolution of supply - demand contradictions. Be cautious about chasing highs. The single - side operation strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the analyzed energy - chemical products are expected to show an oscillatory trend, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices continued to rise. WTI February contract closed up $0.37 to $58.38 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent February contract closed up $0.31 to $62.38 per barrel (0.50% increase), and SC2602 closed at 442.3 yuan per barrel, up 0.6 yuan per barrel (0.14% increase). The total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 3 to 545, but was still 44 less than the same period last year (7.5% decrease). The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected, and geopolitical factors led to a slight increase in oil prices. With the Christmas holiday approaching, trading volume will be light [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. In November, China's bonded marine fuel oil exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while imports increased significantly month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market had some support. The arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market is expected to decline in December, but may rebound in January [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Affected by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela, the cost of asphalt was strongly supported, but terminal demand was weak, and refinery shipments were blocked. Considering limited supply increase and low inventory, the downward price space is limited [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 0.83%, EG2605 fell 3%. PX futures rose 0.61%. Polyester production cuts are being implemented, demand is in the off - season, and the demand for raw materials has decreased. It is expected that PX and TA prices will rebound in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol prices is high [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance. In November, EU passenger car sales increased, and global natural rubber production and consumption decreased. Domestic rubber production entered the off - season, overseas raw material supply is expected to increase, downstream demand weakened at the end of the year, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. The domestic production of methanol was at a high level, and Iranian supply was low. The demand from MTO devices decreased. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. Supply will remain high, and downstream orders and production started to weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will show an oscillatory and weakening trend [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in East, North, and South China increased. Some devices are planned to reduce production this week, and domestic real - estate construction will slow down, leading to a decline in the demand for pipes and profiles. It is expected that PVC prices will oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on December 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Q3 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than Q2 and market expectations, mainly due to increased consumer spending, exports, and government spending [11]. - The US will keep the oil on the seized tanker, which may be sold or used for strategic reserves. Although Venezuela's exports are threatened, its oil exports are still higher than recent levels [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][23][25][27][30]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][32][33][36][37][39][42][43]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][45][47][51][54][57][59]. - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [61][63][65][71]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards [73]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich research experience and multiple awards [74]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant research achievements and media exposure [75]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with industry experience and relevant awards [76].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 钢材：市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货维持震荡运行，现货方面，钢材现货成交偏弱，环比回落，投机情绪不足，钢材价格 基本持平。 供需与逻辑：目前建材供需基本面持续改善，淡季消费维持韧性，产量小幅回升，库存延续回落，伴随各地持续 降温，建材需求仍有季节性回落预期。板材产量环比回落，消费及出口小幅下滑，但是仍存韧性，去库斜率不及 往年同期，高库存持续压制板材价格表现，卷螺差持续走弱。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报价 多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交118.7万吨，环比上涨17.64%；远期现货：远期现货累 计成交98.0万吨（6笔），环比下跌12.50%(其中矿山成交量为57万吨)。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供需矛盾仍在持续积累，高估值下非主流发运持续高位，总库存连续攀 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-24 市场成交偏弱，钢价区间波动 玻璃纯碱：现货需求偏弱，玻碱窄幅震荡 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货偏弱震荡运行，现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：玻璃产量高位震荡，供应收缩程度不足，刚需缺乏起色，供需矛盾依旧存在，且伴随春节临近，刚 需仍有进一步回落预期，叠加高库存压制，玻璃价格易跌难涨，持续关注玻璃冷修情况及宏观政策对玻璃投机需 求帶来的扰动。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货窄幅震荡运行，现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：纯碱产量虽有下降，但仍处于同期较高位，且伴随新产线投产，纯碱供给或有进一步增加预期。目 前库存高位震荡，且考虑到后期浮法玻璃冷修计划仍有增加预期，重碱需求面临挑战，持续关注下游需求情况对 纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 供需与逻辑：上周硅铁产量大幅回落，企业主动调整生产节奏，应对需求下滑。硅铁企业库存压力得到缓解，硅 铁基本面矛盾有所缓和。关注后续硅铁去库情况、成本端变化及产区政策情况。 策略 硅锰方面：震荡 硅铁方面：震荡 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily statistics of futures and options markets for various commodities, including agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals, on December 23, 2025, covering data such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of various agricultural products showed different trends, with cotton, apple, and palm oil rising by 70, 81, and 72 respectively, while peanut, egg, and红枣 fell by 12, 12, and 70 respectively [1] - The trading volumes and open interests of most varieties also changed, with corn starch and soybean meal showing significant changes in trading volume and open interest [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of options for different agricultural products had different degrees of change, and the Put - Call Ratios (PCR) also showed different trends [3] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of different agricultural products' options were presented, with the implied volatilities of some varieties such as palm oil and soybean meal having certain changes [4] 3.2 Energy Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among energy chemical products, PVC, short - fiber, and urea rose by 147, 20, and 23 respectively, while LPG, BR rubber, and asphalt fell by 94, 55, and 18 respectively [5] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties also changed, with PVC and methanol showing relatively large changes in trading volume [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of energy chemical options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of PTA options having a certain increase [6][7] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of energy chemical options were provided, with the implied volatilities of some varieties like PTA and PVC being relatively high [8] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - In the black commodity market, silicon iron and rebar rose by 4 and 2 respectively, while manganese silicon and iron ore fell by 18 and 3 respectively [9] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of iron ore decreasing significantly [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of black commodity options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of iron ore options increasing [9] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of black commodity options were presented, with the implied volatility of rebar options having a relatively large change [10] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among metals, silver, nickel, and tin rose by 231, 1740, and 3490 respectively, while copper, zinc, and aluminum fell by 390, 25, and 25 respectively [11] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of silver decreasing significantly [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of metal options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of silver options increasing [12] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of metal options were provided, with the implied volatility of silver being relatively high [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, crucial for China's long-term development and stability [2] - Domestic demand has become the main driving force for China's economic growth, contributing over 90% to economic growth during the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans, with final consumption and capital formation contributing 55% and 38% respectively [2] - The projected scale of final consumption and capital formation for 2024 is 76.3 trillion yuan and 54.8 trillion yuan, which are 2.7 times and 2.2 times that of 2012 [2] Group 2 - The futures market can support the strategy of expanding domestic demand by promoting effective investment and consumption [3] - The futures market helps enterprises conduct effective investments and improve supply quality by providing forward-looking price signals and diverse hedging methods [3] - Price volatility in commodities, such as new energy materials, has made it difficult for companies to lock in raw material costs, impacting capacity planning [3] Group 3 - The futures market enhances the stability of residents' wealth, contributing to the realization of the wealth effect by serving as an effective tool for diversified investment [4] - The financial futures market in China has been expanding, providing effective tools for various financial institutions to manage market risks [4] - The "insurance + futures" model has been successfully implemented for 10 years, helping to stabilize and increase farmers' income, thus releasing rural consumption potential [4] Group 4 - The futures market needs to enrich the supply of futures varieties and improve the market system to connect enterprises and end consumers effectively [5] - There is a lack of corresponding futures varieties for emerging industries and regional specialty agricultural products, which hinders hedging needs [5] - Innovative service models are required to address the challenges faced by small and micro enterprises in participating in the futures market [5] Group 5 - The design and promotion of wealth management products that focus on diversified investment and risk hedging should be innovated by futures operating institutions [6] - Investor education should be advanced to cultivate a risk management culture, as many market participants have a limited understanding of futures tools [6] - The futures market's development history is relatively short, and there is a need for more effective and diverse investor education methods [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass to sell on rallies [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper for range trading; Aluminum to strengthen observation; Nickel to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver to hold long positions, be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate to be in a strong - side oscillation [1][10][12] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC for range trading; Caustic soda to wait and see; Soda ash to wait and see; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][14][21] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn to be in a strong - side oscillation; PTA to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples to be in a weak - side oscillation; Jujubes to be in a weak - side oscillation [1][23][26] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs to short on rallies for near - term contracts, cautiously bullish for far - term contracts; Eggs to trade within a range; Corn to be cautious about chasing highs in the short - term, grain - holding entities to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal to be strong for near - term contracts and weak for far - term contracts; Oils to gradually close previous long positions, be cautious about chasing highs [1][28][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market situations, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and macro - economic conditions. It also analyzes the influencing factors and future trends of each product, guiding investors to make appropriate trading decisions. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by policies such as the central leadership's instructions on central enterprises and the real - estate policy in 2026, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent positive and negative meeting supports end, index futures may trade sideways. Long - term bullish, buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: Affected by events like the establishment of the academic committee of the China Capital Market Society and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - end yield does not reach a new high and the capital interest rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term interest rates may ease. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports. With high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak downstream demand, and potential domestic coal mine production cuts, it is recommended to trade on the right side of the range [7] - **Rebar**: After the price rose and then fell on Tuesday, the valuation is neutral. With the end of important meetings and a short - term policy vacuum, and considering factors such as export policies and supply - demand conditions, the price fluctuation range is limited, and short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: With 3 - 4 production lines expected to shut down at the end of the month and an optimistic policy atmosphere, the futures price may stop falling and rebound. However, due to weak demand and other factors, it is recommended to take profits and wait and see [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The high - level negotiation results of copper concentrate TC/RC show a tight supply of copper concentrate. However, factors such as year - end capital tightness and high prices suppressing procurement limit the upside. Copper prices are in a high - level oscillation, and range trading is recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: Although the macro - atmosphere is good and some technical indicators are positive, the fundamentals are weak, with factors such as falling bauxite prices, increasing electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and weakening demand. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [10][11] - **Nickel**: The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia and the price support from the Philippines are offset by factors such as the overall surplus of refined nickel and nickel iron. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [11] - **Tin**: With an increase in domestic production and imports, and a recovery in the semiconductor industry, but also a tight supply of tin concentrate, tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [12] - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the rise in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest - rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the mid - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. Hold silver long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, range trading is recommended and be cautious about chasing highs [12][13] - **Lithium carbonate**: With a supply increase and strong downstream demand, and considering factors such as mine production cuts and inventory changes, lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate strongly [13] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: With high production, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is in a weak supply - demand situation. However, due to low valuation and potential policy and cost impacts, it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level. Range trading is recommended [14] - **Caustic soda**: High inventory, potential alumina production cuts, and other factors suppress the price. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to downstream procurement and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [15] - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as crude oil geopolitics, pure benzene supply - demand, and port inventory, styrene is expected to trade sideways. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change in the crude oil pricing center [16] - **Rubber**: With the end of the harvest season in Hainan, overseas supply pressure, and high inventory, rubber prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [16][17] - **Urea**: With a decrease in production due to increased maintenance, a slowdown in agricultural demand, and a partial increase in industrial demand, urea prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Methanol**: With an increase in production and a decline in the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate, and a differentiation in inventory between enterprises and ports, methanol prices are expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [20] - **Polyolefins**: With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, PE is expected to oscillate weakly, and PP is expected to trade within a range. The LP spread is expected to narrow [21] - **Soda ash**: With stable spot transactions, an increase in production costs, and a potential easing of supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to wait and see [23] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With stable consumption and policy expectations for Xinjiang's planting area, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [23] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the rise in crude oil prices, and the supply - demand de - stocking situation, PTA prices are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the range of 4600 - 4900 [24][26] - **Apples and jujubes**: Apples' inventory market is stable but trading is light; jujubes' acquisition is nearing completion, and some prices are slightly loosening. Both are expected to oscillate weakly [26][27] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, due to the balance between supply and demand, pig prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [28][29] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the egg price is expected to trade within a range. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is gradually easing, and in the long - term, the production capacity still needs time to clear. It is recommended that breeding enterprises hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: In the short - term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. In the long - term, although the demand is gradually recovering, the supply - demand situation in 25/26 is relatively loose, limiting the upside [31][33] - **Soybean meal**: Near - term contracts are expected to be strong, and far - term contracts are expected to be weak. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can price at low points [34][35] - **Oils**: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to stop falling and rebound, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to gradually close previous long positions and be cautious about chasing highs [35][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the external ICE raw sugar strengthened, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar also rose due to external influence. The domestic sugar - making process is progressing smoothly, and the short - term fundamentals are stable. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and future attention should be paid to new information from the international sugar market [1] - Regarding the jujube market, the acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is nearing completion, and the supply of new jujubes in Hebei is increasing. The jujube futures price is bottoming out, but there are still few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [4] - In the rubber market, natural rubber is affected by the approaching end of the domestic harvest season and the overseas supply peak, along with port inventory accumulation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Synthetic rubber is supported by raw material costs but has weak downstream acceptance, and the market may also enter a volatile phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar 3.1.1 Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5256 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.59%, and 5295 yuan/ton at night; SR605 contract closed at 5155 yuan/ton, up 0.57%, and 5192 yuan/ton at night [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 5218 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton; the quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5110 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5690 - 5900 yuan/ton, with some prices up 20 yuan/ton [1] - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 58.1 million tons, 1.3 million tons less than last year. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing this season, 1 less than the previous season [1] - As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% compared to the same period last year; 478 sugar mills have started crushing, slightly more than last year [1] - As of December 22, 2025, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 9.6636 million tons, a decrease of 1.6155 million tons or 14.32% compared to the same period last year; the sugar - containing rate was 11.38%, a decrease of 0.09% compared to last year; the sugar - producing rate was 8.437%, an increase of 0.024% compared to last year; sugar production was 0.8153 million tons, a decrease of 0.1336 million tons or 14.07% compared to last year [1] - Yesterday, there were 4479 sugar warrants in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the ICE raw sugar strengthened. After the Brazilian sugar price fell below the cost and the sugar - making ratio decreased rapidly, the raw sugar found strong support at 14 cents/pound. The backward Thai sugar - making data and the exit of short positions led to a rebound. In the long - run, there is still pressure on the upside [1] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar rose due to external influence. The domestic white sugar spot price stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term fundamentals are stable. Affected by the cost, "policy bottom", and capital outflow, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. Future attention should be paid to new information from the international sugar market [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see for the SR605 contract, and partially take profits on the previously held call options [1] 3.2 Jujube 3.2.1 Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 8640 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.63%; CJ605 contract closed at 8750 yuan/ton, down 0.79% [4] 3.2.2 Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 16108 tons, an increase of 318 tons or 2.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 34.68% compared to the same period last year [4] - The wholesale price of Hebei special - grade jujubes was 9.53 yuan/kg yesterday, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [4] - The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market was 2 yesterday, 3 less than the previous day [4] - There were 1092 jujube warrants yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [4] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is nearing completion, and the supply of new jujubes in Hebei is increasing. After the previous negative factors were digested, the downward momentum of the jujube futures price weakened. However, as it has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period and there is still some unsold inventory upstream, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] 3.3 Rubber 3.3.1 Market Review - As of December 23, the RU2605 contract closed at 15290 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12405 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11175 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [5] 3.3.2 Important Information - Yesterday, the price of Thai raw material latex was 55.7 Thai baht/kg (- 0.29/- 0.54%), and the price of cup lump was 50.8 Thai baht/kg (0.049/0.1%); the price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13000 yuan/ton (0/0%); the price of Hainan latex for whole - milk rubber production was 14800 yuan/ton (0/0%), and the price of latex for concentrated latex production was 14800 yuan/ton (0/0%) [5] - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 4.989 million tons, an increase of 0.102 million tons or 2.08% compared to the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 0.775 million tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 4.214 million tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points. As of December 14, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 11.52 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons or 2.6%. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 7.48 million tons, an increase of 2.5%. China's total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 4.04 million tons, an increase of 2.8% [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points compared to the previous week and 8.67 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points compared to the previous week and an increase of 3.72 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - Yesterday, the price of whole - milk rubber was 14950 yuan/ton (+ 100/0.67%); the price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1845 US dollars/ton (+ 10/0.54%), equivalent to 13011 yuan/ton in RMB; the price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14520 yuan/ton (+ 50/0.35%) [5] - Yesterday, the price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2885 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 770 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [5] - Yesterday, the delivered price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 7400 - 7450 yuan/ton [5] - Yesterday, the market prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose steadily. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market remained stable at 10950 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market rose 50 yuan/ton to 11300 yuan/ton [5] 3.3.3 Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly yesterday. The domestic Hainan production area is gradually ending the harvest season, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase rubber has decreased significantly. However, the overseas supply peak is coming, and there is still resistance to the rise of Thai raw materials. At the same time, the Qingdao port in China continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. Under the interweaving of long and short factors, natural rubber may continue to fluctuate in the short - term [5] - Synthetic rubber: The BR contract rose first and then fell yesterday, and the decline widened at night. The firm butadiene price provides strong cost support for synthetic rubber prices, but the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods is still weak, and traders lack confidence in raising prices to sell. Although the recent export transaction news of BR raw materials supports the rubber price, there is no obvious positive news in the actual fundamentals. The market may enter a volatile phase in the near future [5] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - The RU main contract should focus on the 15000 - 15530 activity range; the NR main contract should focus on the 12250 - 12750 activity range; if the BR contract breaks through the 11000 support level today, it will look for the second support at 10700 [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-23，工业硅期货价格偏震荡走高，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（145）元/吨，变化（1.68）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓213776手，2025-12-22仓单 总数为9175手，较前一日变化156手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8 万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分）较上周减少1万 吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All the industries mentioned in the report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral investment rating [7][8][10] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news. It offers investment suggestions and views on the future trends of these commodities [2][7][8] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite planned polyester factory production cuts, the short - term trend remains strong due to the tight supply expectation [7]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, with a positive upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads [8]. - MEG: Demand is weakening, and the price is expected to continue to decline. The mid - term trend is still bearish [8]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a wide - range oscillation. Port inventory accumulation suppresses market sentiment, but the human - mixed spot market is expected to strengthen in the long - term [10][12] Synthetic Rubber - It has entered an oscillatory phase. The previous upward trend has slowed down due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamental data of butadiene and synthetic rubber [15] Asphalt - It shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price in East China is accelerating its decline. The overall supply and demand situation is relatively stable, but there are signs of inventory accumulation [17][28] LLDPE - Spot prices remain weak. Although the futures have rebounded, the market trading atmosphere is still sluggish. The supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand needs to be concerned [29][30] PP - The PDH profit is compressed again, and the trend is oscillatory and weak. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - There is a short - term rebound, but the high - yield and high - inventory pattern around the Spring Festival remains. The far - month contract has long - position value, but the upward price elasticity depends on large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [34][35] Pulp - It is oscillating. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weakly rigid. The supply - side port inventory pressure still exists, and it is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and downstream procurement trends [40][41] Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and processing plants purchase raw sheets as needed [43][44] Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port inventory is in a de - stocking pattern, and the macro - situation may drive a short - term rebound, but the upside space is limited [46][48] Urea - It oscillates in the short - term, and the mid - term price center is expected to rise. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the demand and cost factors jointly affect the price trend [50][53] Styrene - It oscillates in the short - term. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks of negative feedback from downstream product inventories [54][55] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The comprehensive supply is decreasing, and downstream enterprises purchase on a "use - as - needed" basis [60] LPG - The market is suppressed by warehouse receipts, and the futures price has declined [62] Propylene - The spot market is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the start - up rate of related devices [63] PVC - The short - term rebound space may be limited. The high - yield and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and large - scale production cut expectations may appear after the 03 contract [71][73] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows a slight decline with increased short - term fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [76] Container Freight Index (European Route) - The near - month contract oscillates, and the far - month contract depends on the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand situation of shipping capacity and freight volume, as well as geopolitical factors, jointly affect the price trend [78][87] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber follows the raw material price increase in the short - term, with compressed processing fees. Bottle chips also follow the raw material price increase in the short - term, and the market transaction is fair [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and watch. The market price is stable, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [95][96] Pure Benzene - It oscillates in the short - term. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026, with a chance of a bottom - rebound in the second quarter [99][100]