Group 1: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of having a well-defined investment strategy before entering the market, akin to preparing for a battle [1] - It highlights the necessity of being proactive in predicting market trends and taking advantage of favorable conditions while maintaining strict risk control [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - Recent gold prices have shown volatility, with a significant drop to a near three-week low of $3301.29 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and improved global risk appetite [2] - The article notes that gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates, which could lead to further declines [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3300, they may test the $3250 support level, while a recovery above $3340 could signal a bullish trend [2][3][5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising geopolitical risks, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Brent crude nearing $70 per barrel [6] - The article discusses the complexities in market sentiment due to geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming OPEC+ meetings that may influence supply decisions [6] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a mid-term upward trend, with short-term movements influenced by recent news, indicating a potential for further gains [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Lithium carbonate, PTA, Ethylene glycol, PP, PVC [1][2] - **Bearish**: Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Coke, Corn (C01), PVC, Caustic soda, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index futures, Bond futures, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Manganese silicon, Silicon iron, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn (C09), Soybean meal (MO9), Pulp, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, Urea, PE [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market requires new themes and bullish sentiment to drive it after continuous strong rallies. The short - term upward speed of stock index futures may slow down. Attention should be paid to the July Politburo meeting communique, the third round of China - US trade consultations, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] - Although the outlook for tariff progress is positive, market uncertainties remain, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index futures**: After continuous rallies, the short - term upward speed may slow down. Adjustment and long - position building are the main strategies. Pay attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the third round of China - US trade consultations. [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] Precious metals - **Gold**: Despite positive tariff progress expectations, market uncertainties and the Fed's possible September interest - rate cut keep the price oscillating in the short term. [1] - **Silver**: It may return to the fundamental logic and oscillate. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Short - term market sentiment is optimistic, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the price may oscillate. [1] - **Aluminum**: Rising electrolytic aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, and the price may oscillate weakly. [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term prices are macro - dominated and widely oscillating. There is a long - term surplus pressure on primary nickel. It is advisable to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Futures are macro - dominated in the short term. Wait and see, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [1] - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, with limited driving forces due to weak supply and demand. [1] Industrial metals - **Steel products (e.g., rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Market sentiment cools, and capital behavior may cause large fluctuations. [1] - **Iron ore**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] - **Manganese silicon, silicon iron**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supply contracts, but crude oil prices are strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and there is a slight inventory reduction at ports. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment is strong, overseas device maintenance is extended, and supply contracts. [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Pure benzene prices fall slightly, device load rises, and the basis weakens significantly. [1] - **Urea**: Supply contraction is expected, and domestic demand enters the off - season. [1] - **PE**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices oscillating weakly. [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, and the "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly. [1] - **PVC**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. Maintenance decreases, downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure rises. [2] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, spot prices are at a low level, and the premium of delivery substitutes increases. [2] - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, and it is in the seasonal off - season for combustion demand. [2] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The good rate of US soybeans is lowered, policies are negative for feed raw materials, and funds tend to be long on oil and short on meal. It is short - term strong, and the previous high pressure should be observed. [1] - **Cotton**: The near - month contract is driven by short - squeeze logic, and the upside of the 01 contract is limited. Pay attention to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas. [1] - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, driven by the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range. [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop supply - demand is tightening, supporting the C09 contract, but the short - term market has sufficient grain circulation. The new - crop planting cost is lower, and the C01 contract is over - valued. It is advisable to short C01 at high prices. [1] - **Soybean meal**: The near - month contract is in the inventory - building cycle, and the basis is under pressure. The MO9 contract is expected to oscillate, and the MO1 contract can be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. [1] - **Paper pulp**: It has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. The basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and further chasing of long positions is not recommended. [1] - **Log futures**: Affected by the macro environment, it is likely to decline on Monday after many commodities fell on Friday night. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - term is affected by the continuous decline in airlines' prices in early August. The US - EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support, but the outcome of the China - US talks is not expected to be better than market expectations, and the probability of postponed or over 20% tariffs is higher [7]. - The spot price basically peaked at the end of July. Airlines continued to use the late - July freight rates in early August but gradually lowered them as the booking time approached. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the high - capacity deployment in early August weakened the effect of the domestic cargo rolling pool. Spot prices are expected to peak at the end of July or early August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline rate will increase. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1593, down 3.30% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1261, down 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their changes compared to the previous values are presented. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1493.6, down 1.61% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc., and their changes are given. For instance, the current position of EC2606 is 832, with an increase compared to the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current and previous values of monthly spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, and their changes are provided. For example, the 10 - 12 spread is currently 680.4, down 4.7 from the previous value [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a potential bullish outlook despite current pressures from trade negotiations and a strengthening US dollar [1][4][6]. Market Performance - On July 28, gold opened lower at $3321.78, reached a high of $3344.99, and closed at $3314.39, marking a decline of $24.11 or 0.72% from the previous close of $3338.50 [4]. - The trading range for gold is expected to remain between $3000 and $3500 in the short term, with key support levels at $3300 and $3270 [8][12]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently within a three-month consolidation triangle, indicating potential for a rebound, especially if it holds above the 100-day moving average [1][14]. - The ZZ indicator suggests a bottoming pattern, while MACD signals a bearish trend, indicating mixed signals for future price movements [10][14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including the FHFA house price index and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to influence market sentiment [6]. - The expiration of the US trade agreement on August 1 is a critical date, with potential implications for gold prices depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [6][7]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that regardless of trade agreement outcomes, gold prices may not face significant downward pressure, with a bullish trend expected in the long term due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][11]. - The potential for a rebound in gold prices is supported by the expectation of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a bullish market for gold in the coming year [7][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on July 28, 2025, showed a mixed performance with most main contracts falling, and different varieties had their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their trends [7]. - For various commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies (anti - involution, trade policies), and macro - economic situations (tariffs, interest rate expectations). Each commodity is expected to have different trends, including oscillation, weakening, or potential rebounds [3][5][10] Variety - Specific Summaries 1. Soybean Oil - Today, the main 09 contract of soybean oil opened at 8160 yuan/ton and closed at 8120 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. It has been oscillating in the 8050 - 8160 yuan/ton range for 3 days, with weakening upward momentum. The supply is abundant as US soybeans are growing well and domestic soybean crushing volume is high, while the demand is weak due to the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and one can consider buying on dips. Attention should be paid to US weather in August and US - EU trade negotiations [3]. 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, hitting the daily limit. Spot prices in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Supply has little change, and inventory is being transferred downstream. With the fourth round of coke price increases expected and strong downstream demand, the sharp rebound was due to anti - involution expectations and demand from hydropower projects. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should operate cautiously and watch for policy support [5]. 3. Copper (Shanghai Copper) - The copper market showed a weakening trend today. As of June 2025, copper ore imports decreased, and the inventory of refined copper ore is decreasing. Although TC/RC fees are negative, smelters' production enthusiasm is okay. The apparent consumption of copper is at a high level, but future consumption may be affected by trade policies. With overseas tariffs about to be implemented and the Fed's interest - rate decision in focus, the domestic market is supported by policies. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the tariff implementation next month [10]. 4. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and high, hitting the daily limit. The average price increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the production in June increased. The price of spodumene supports the lower price, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. One should watch the production capacity and output of lithium salt plants and mines [11][12]. 5. Crude Oil - Crude oil is in the seasonal peak travel season, with US inventories at a low level. OPEC+ will increase production in August. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus in 2025. With sanctions on Russian oil and potential impacts on supply, and the downstream in the peak season, the crude oil price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to OPEC+'s production policy in September [13]. 6. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply decreased as the start - up rate dropped last week, and the planned production in August will decrease. The downstream start - up rate mostly increased, but was still restricted by funds and weather. The inventory ratio decreased. With potential increases in raw material supply and upcoming policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate [14][15]. 7. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also dropped due to new maintenance. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and slow downstream recovery, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [16]. 8. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased with the restart of some plants, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory is high, and the cost of coal increased. With new production capacity and the off - season for some downstream products, and considering trade policies and potential policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17][18]. 9. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate is still low. The export situation is general, and the inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment, and the demand has not improved substantially. With potential policies, the PVC price is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to liquidate long positions or continue the 09 - 01 reverse spread [19]. 10. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal showed a weakening trend today, with a 1.16% decline. The supply is abundant as the domestic soybean crushing volume is high and the production of soybean meal exceeds demand, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand is expected to weaken due to policies. With the weakening of US soybeans, the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, import costs, and oil - mill crushing [21]. 11. Rebar - The main 2510 contract of rebar decreased by 2.05% today. The short - term trend is bearish, while the long - term pattern is still in a recovery adjustment. The real - estate and infrastructure demand is weak, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rallies, and hedging enterprises can gradually establish short - hedging positions. Attention should be paid to macro data and steel - mill production cuts [22]. 12. Hot - Rolled Coil - The main 2510 contract of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.30% today. The short - term upward momentum is weak, and the long - term trend is in a recovery. The demand from real - estate and infrastructure is limited, and the raw - material cost support is insufficient. The social inventory is accumulating. Short - term speculators can short on rebounds, and hedging enterprises with inventory pressure can increase short - hedging positions [24]. 13. Urea - The urea price decreased by more than 3% today. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The inventory reduction slowed down, indicating poor terminal demand. After the exchange's risk - control measures, the market cooled. The market is expected to be weak and oscillate in the medium term, but there may be rebounds due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [25].

Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may signal a rate cut in September, which could support gold prices due to expectations of increased liquidity [1][2] - The article highlights that as trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries progress, tariff risks are diminishing, which may positively impact market sentiment and industrial metal prices [1][2] - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is expected to influence industrial metal prices significantly, especially with key domestic meetings and trade talks scheduled for July [1][2] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely to support gold prices, especially with ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariff adjustments [2] - The industrial metals market is currently experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with weak demand and pressure on processing rates for metals like copper and aluminum, although macroeconomic factors may provide some support [2] - The article emphasizes that if domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting internal demand continue to be effective, alongside positive developments in trade negotiations and signals from the Federal Reserve, industrial metal prices could see significant support [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，7 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 面丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段，油厂催提。饲 | | | | 料企业库存开始走高于去年同期，进一步补库积极性预计有所减缓。美国总统特朗 | | 豆粕 | 大区间震荡 | 普宣布与印度尼西亚达成农业贸易协议，该国承诺将采购 45 亿美元的美国农产品。 | | | | 印尼是美国大豆的第五大进口国，该消息提振美豆价格上涨。周五国内豆粕价格收 | | | | 跌，市场静待中美贸易谈判新进展。在基本面偏弱及中美贸易关税成本支撑多空双 | | | | 重作用下，豆粕以大区间行情对待。关注本周中美贸易谈判结果。主力【2970，3040】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽地区土壤墒情偏干，关注后续降雨情况。国内市场， | | | | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存环比整体去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。 | | | | 7 月至 9 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the export market and the impact of US-China trade negotiations on various industries, particularly in the hand tools sector and companies like 权丰控股 (Qianfeng Holdings) and 浙江鼎力 (Zhejiang Dingli) [1][7][10] Core Points and Arguments - **US Consumer Market Demand**: The US consumer market shows robust demand supported by improved employee purchasing power, although trade negotiations and tariff adjustments pose risks to export companies [1][5] - **Hand Tools Industry**: The hand tools sector is characterized by low price sensitivity and stable demand from the US housing market, making it a reliable investment area. Interest rate cuts or the removal of capital gains taxes could further stimulate demand [1][6] - **Impact of Tariff Changes**: Tariff changes have varied impacts on companies, with those having a high domestic production ratio benefiting from adjustments. For instance, 权丰控股 has 60% of its capacity in China, positioning it well for potential tariff reductions [7][10] - **Manufacturing Reshoring**: The return of US manufacturing has led to order growth, but capacity constraints and high costs have limited revenue growth. Companies like 浙江鼎力 are expected to maintain stable revenue despite market fluctuations [9][10] - **Investment Opportunities**: Potential investment opportunities arise from tariff changes, particularly for companies with production concentrated in China, such as 凌霄泵业 (Lingxiao Pump Industry) [10] - **Overseas Market Demand**: There is a noticeable increase in demand for consumer goods like high-pressure washers and small generators in overseas markets, prompting companies to establish manufacturing facilities abroad to mitigate tax risks [2][15][14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Complex Tariff Structure**: The current US tariff structure on Chinese goods includes a combination of tariffs from 2018 and recent adjustments, leading to a comprehensive tax rate perceived at 55% [3] - **Manufacturing Development in Southeast Asia**: Southeast Asia and South Asia are emerging as manufacturing hubs, absorbing simple manufacturing from China and gradually moving towards more complex consumer goods production [16] - **Natural Gas Demand**: The growth in natural gas demand is offsetting declines in oil orders, benefiting companies like 杰瑞 (Jereh) and 牛威 (Nuiwei) [13] - **Global Competitiveness**: Companies are encouraged to focus on global competitiveness and overseas expansion, with a significant portion of profitable companies linked to international markets [11][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term outlooks and trading suggestions for multiple commodities and financial products, including methanol, gold, steel, coal, etc., based on their current market data and supply - demand situations [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Commodity Categories Methanol - Market data: Jiangsu Taicang methanol market price is 2488 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; port inventory is 72.58 tons, down 6.44 tons weekly; production enterprise inventory is 33.98 tons, down 1.25 tons weekly; order to be delivered is 24.48 tons, up 0.17 tons weekly; capacity utilization is 83.98%, up 1.56% weekly; downstream capacity utilization is 73.12%, down 0.49% weekly [2]. - Outlook: Domestic methanol production expected to rise, downstream demand stable. Port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 2460. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. Gold - Market news: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, buy US military equipment and $150 billion of US energy products [2]. - Outlook: US - EU tariff negotiations may be smooth, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The US dollar index has limited upward momentum, which is positive for gold. Gold is still bearish in a range but may rebound in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the US dollar's movement [2]. Rebar - Market data: 247 steel mills' blast furnace operation rate is 83.46%, unchanged from last week; capacity utilization is 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points; profitability is 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points; daily pig iron output is 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons [4]. - Outlook: In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. Low inventory and strong raw materials provide support. Prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the prices of furnace materials [4]. Coking Coal - Market data: For 247 steel mills, daily coke output is 47.16 tons, up 0.07 tons; capacity utilization is 86.97%, up 0.13%; coke inventory is 639.98 tons, up 0.99 tons; coking coal inventory is 799.51 tons, up 8.41 tons; injection coal inventory is 419.44 tons, up 2.99 tons [5]. - Outlook: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for coking coal futures, causing a sharp drop in the market. Market participants will return to rationality. Further price increases require unexpected macro - policies. Suggestion is to participate in short - term range trading [5]. Iron Ore - Market data: Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory is 8885.22 tons, up 63.06 tons; daily consumption is 301.1 tons, down 0.15 tons; inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.51 days, up 0.22 days [6]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, demand is slightly declining, and port inventory may decrease slightly. The upward momentum of ore prices is weakening, and the risk of correction is increasing. Wide - range fluctuations continue [6]. Soda Ash - Market data: National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1350.5 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; weekly output is 72.38 tons, down 1.28%; total inventory is 186.46 tons, down 2.15%; float glass operation rate is 75.68%, unchanged; average price is 1219 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; inventory is 6189.6 million weight boxes, down 4.69% [6]. - Outlook: Float glass operation is stable, inventory is decreasing, and prices are rising. The domestic soda ash market is strengthening in a range. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 1455. Suggestion is to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Crude Oil - Market data: As of July 25, the number of US active drilling rigs is 415, the lowest since September 2021, down 7 from the previous week and 67 from the same period last year [7]. - Outlook: OPEC+ will decide on September's crude oil quota next weekend. There is a high probability of completing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day and the UAE's production increase of 300,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is fully realized, there will be pressure on crude oil prices. Overall, OPEC+ maintains a stance of increasing production, and crude oil prices are expected to be weak in a range. Suggestion is to wait and see [7]. Bottle Chips - Market data: Weekly production is 32.23 tons, down 0.28 tons; price in the East China market is 5991 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; industry profit is - 225.39 yuan/ton, down 16.95%; downstream soft - drink industry operation rate is expected to be stable at 85 - 95%, and oil refinery operation rate may rise slightly to 67% [8]. - Outlook: Supply is decreasing, providing some support, but downstream stocking willingness is low. Crude oil is fluctuating. A range - trading approach is suggested for bottle chips [8]. Plastic - Market data: North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7358 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; weekly production is 26.96 tons, down 2.98%; enterprise inventory is 17.26 tons, down 4.22%; daily production profit from oil - based is - 425 yuan/ton; average operation rate of downstream products is down 0.1%, with the agricultural film operation rate up 0.2% and PE packaging film operation rate down 0.5% [8]. - Outlook: LLDPE supply may increase, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is supported by costs. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with resistance at 7410. Suggestion is to wait and see [8]. Rubber - Market data: Thai raw rubber prices are 55.3 Thai baht/kg for glue and 50 Thai baht/kg for cup lump. As of July 24, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises is 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; for full - steel tire enterprises, it is 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous week and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Outlook: Global rubber production areas have normal weather. Rubber inventory in China is slightly decreasing. The domestic tire industry is recovering, but finished - product inventory is high, and consumer demand has limited impact on prices. A range - trading approach is suggested, and attention should be paid to the development of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict [9]. Live Pigs - Market data: As of July 25, the average weight of slaughtered pigs is 123.67 kg, up 0.18 kg; weekly slaughter operation rate is 26.77%, up 0.17%; profit from purchasing piglets is - 117.52 yuan/head, down 45.68 yuan/head; self - breeding profit is 72.1 yuan/head, down 42.76 yuan/head; piglet price is 444.76 yuan/head, unchanged from last week [10]. - Outlook: Pig prices are stable and slightly rising. Farmers' willingness to hold prices is increasing, but the high - temperature off - season continues, and there is no strong upward momentum in the short - term. There are strong policy expectations. Suggestion is to short at appropriate times. Farmers can sell hedging according to their slaughter plans [10]. Palm Oil - Market data: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are 1,029,585 tons, down 104,645 tons or 9.23% from the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri, exports are 896,484 tons, down 160,982 tons or 15.22% [11]. - Outlook: The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy lacks a solid foundation, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are decreasing. The domestic market shows a deeper inversion of the soybean - palm oil price spread, and terminal demand is weak. Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in a high - level range in the short - term [11]. Soybean Meal - Market data: In the 30th week (July 19 - 25), oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume is 2.2389 million tons, and the operation rate is 62.94%, 380 tons higher than expected [12]. - Outlook: The news of the Ministry of Agriculture's plan to reduce pig production and promote soybean meal substitutes put pressure on the market. Unpriced contracts at the end of the month provide some support, but high inventory continues to suppress spot prices. The M09 contract is expected to be weak in a range in the short - term [12]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market data: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. New - energy industries represented by equipment manufacturing had rapid profit growth [12]. - Outlook: The economy still has resilience. Before the July Politburo meeting, the start of the Yajiang Hydropower Station indicates an increase in fiscal support in the second half of the year. Policy factors are negative for the bond market. The bond market's main logic is unclear. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the July Politburo meeting [12]. Silver - Market data: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 62.4% [13]. - Outlook: This week will enter the expected market for the July Fed meeting, and market expectations are still low. Non - farm payroll data will provide further guidance. Silver is expected to be slightly bearish in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the synchronization of gold and silver prices and the impact of gold on silver [13].