在投资领域，我们常常寻找能够预示经济与市场走向的领先指标，指导资产配置。 "铜油比"就是近年来备受投资者关注的一项的有意思的指标，它通过对比铜和原油这两种大宗商品的 价格，提供了一种观察经济周期的重要视角。 基于两者特性，铜油比的变化就像是经济的"体温计"： 当铜油比上升时，铜价涨幅快于油价，通常意味着经济复苏、工业活动活跃。 当铜油比下降时，油价涨幅快于铜价，可能预示经济放缓或面临"滞胀"风险（经济增长停滞与通货膨 胀并存）。 预测市场的领先指标 经济周期的"体温计" 我们通过AI问答互动，尝试对这个指标一探究竟。 在AI大模型看来，铜油比之所以具备"预测能力"，源于铜与油在经济中的不同角色。 铜被誉为"铜博士"，广泛应用于电力、建筑、交通和新能源等领域，其需求与经济增长、尤其是制造 业和基建投资活动密切相关。铜价上涨通常反映出工业需求旺盛和经济扩张。 原油则被称为"工业血液"和"通胀之母"。其需求相对刚性，但价格极易受到地缘政治和供给端影响。 油价过快上涨往往会推高全球生产成本，引发通货膨胀。 | 铜油比状态 | 宏观经济环境 | 资产配置建议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜油比上升 ...

与此同时，财政脆弱性持续累积。偿债成本大幅攀升，挤压发展支出，目前已有20国陷入债务困境 或高风险。尽管通胀整体回落，但仍有约五分之一经济体通胀超过10%，国际储备普遍不足。 （原标题：撒南非洲国家经济保持韧性） 据"全非洲"11月18日报道，过去半年，全球外部环境动荡持续冲击撒哈拉以南非洲，但该地区经济 仍展现韧性，预计今年增长4.1%，明年微升至4.4%，反映部分主要经济体改革见效。科特迪瓦、埃塞 俄比亚、卢旺达和乌干达增速领先，而依赖资源、受冲突影响的国家增长低迷，人均收入几乎停滞。大 宗商品表现分化，石油价格下跌，而可可、咖啡、铜和黄金上涨，各国借贷成本仍高。 全球贸易和援助形式也已恶化。《非洲增长与机遇法案》到期导致对美出口关税上调，虽影响有 限，但紧张局势可能通过大宗商品价格进一步传导。外援骤降对贫困和脆弱国家冲击尤甚。 在此形势下，提高财政收入与改善债务管理成为两大政策关键。加纳、卢旺达和坦桑尼亚的成功改 革表明，税收制度与征管协同推进并配合公共服务改善和反腐举措，能确保收入可持续。债务管理方 面，更透明、可信的机制能降低融资成本并吸引投资，"债务换发展"模式在科特迪瓦等地已有试点，可 将部分债 ...

巴克莱研究团队发表研究报告指，鉴于美联储独立性风险已有所下降，且人工智能资本支出可能构成结 构性利好因素，上调对美元的展望。大宗商品方面，巴克莱认为，与能源、电力及电气基础设施、冷却 与热管理系统、半导体及硬体投入、数据中心建筑材料相关的大宗商品，有望在这轮AI投资周期中受 惠。 巴克莱指，美国多家上市公司和私营企业都宣布了未来三到五年内巨额的AI相关资本支出计划，总额 可能远超美国GDP的10%水平。对比较早前德国基础设施支出计划引起的重视，其投资规模仅为此轮美 国AI资本支出的五分之一，且投资年期更长，可见市场对AI投资的反应出乎意料地平淡。 云技术的发展应用是一个持续多年的过程，企业通过向云服务供应商支付费用提升资讯科技效率。整体 而言，云技术应用导致不同行业和国家的盈余持续向美国科技巨头转移，而在国际层面，美国和中国均 是云技术投资的赢家。 另一方面，全球服务过去主要令高学历劳动力增长较快的国家受惠，但这种增长模式料将受到生成式 AI投资热潮的挑战。因此，服务业在出口结构中占比重大的国家将面临更大压力，尤其是资讯科技、 会计、顾问以及各类后勤支援服务行业，风险尤为突出。 该行表示，科技进步的速度，取决 ...

对于备受关注的稳定币，香港特区政府的态度同样审慎。相关法律已经通过，牌照申请正在审批中，目 标是明年开始发放。"但我们必须明确，稳定币不是投机炒作的工具，而是旨在解决实体经济，特别是 跨境支付中的痛点。因此，初期的发牌量会非常有限，监管会十分审慎。"许正宇说。 T+1与同股不同权 今年以来，恒生指数涨幅超过30%，恒生科技指数更是录得近40%的增长，跑赢全球主要市场。在全球 资金寻求"分散投资"与"安全港"的浪潮中，香港正再次成为国际资本瞩目的焦点。 作为香港金融政策的核心决策者之一，香港特别行政区财经事务及库务局局长许正宇向21世纪经济报道 记者系统阐述了在当前宏观背景下，香港如何利用"一国两制"的独特优势，在资产管理、金融科技、商 品市场等多个领域开拓新增长点，并服务于国家战略。 在全球经济格局深刻重构的背景下，香港作为国际金融中心，正迎来新的历史性机遇与挑战。从吸引全 球家族办公室，到构建亚太区黄金交易中心；从推动资产代币化，到服务内地企业"出海"，香港的每一 步棋都备受关注。 赋能实体而非投机炒作 在全球金融中心指数（GFCI）的最新排名中，香港的金融科技实力已从2024年初的全球第14位，跃升 至全 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first ten months of 2025, China's goods trade maintained a steady growth trend, with a total import and export value of 37.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, driven by exports and stable imports [5][6]. Group 1: Trade Performance - The total export value reached 22.12 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2%, while imports were 15.19 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [5]. - In October 2025, the total trade value was 3.7 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.1%, with exports at 2.17 trillion yuan, down by 0.8%, and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan, up by 1.4%, marking five consecutive months of growth in imports [5]. Group 2: Trade Composition - General trade and processing trade both saw growth, with general trade imports and exports at 23.64 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) and processing trade at 6.94 trillion yuan (up 6.5%) [5]. - The ASEAN region became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 6.18 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), followed by the EU at 4.88 trillion yuan (up 4.9%), and the US at 3.38 trillion yuan (down 15.9%) [6]. Group 3: Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly, with imports and exports totaling 21.28 trillion yuan (up 7.2%), accounting for 57% of total foreign trade [7]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 10.91 trillion yuan (up 2.9%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline to 5.04 trillion yuan (down 8.1%) [7]. Group 4: Export Products - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, with a total value of 13.43 trillion yuan (up 8.7%) [7]. - Notable growth was observed in integrated circuits (up 24.7% to 1.16 trillion yuan) and automobiles (up 14.3% to 798.39 billion yuan) [7]. Group 5: Import Trends - Major commodity import prices fell, with iron ore imports at 1.03 billion tons (up 0.7%) and crude oil at 471 million tons (up 3.1%), both experiencing price declines of 10.7% and 12.1% respectively [8]. - The import value of mechanical and electrical products increased to 6.05 trillion yuan (up 5.5%) [8].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has diminished, leading to pressure on global risk assets through two main channels [1] Group 1: Impact on Currency and Commodities - A decline in interest rate cut expectations supports the US dollar index in the short term, which, as a core global pricing currency, makes dollar-denominated commodities and emerging market assets less attractive, potentially causing capital to flow back to dollar assets [1] - The continued restrictive monetary policy will elevate real interest rates, negatively impacting the valuation logic of risk assets, particularly high-valuation growth assets, as rising discount rates compress their valuation space [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Recent market performance indicates a pullback in the US Nasdaq index, emerging market equities, and cyclical commodities like oil, reflecting the pressure on risk assets [1]

Group 1: Domestic Trade Data - In October, China's exports (in USD) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from an increase of 8.3% in the previous month, while imports rose by 1.0%, down from 7.4% [3][5] - The trade surplus for October was reported at $90.07 billion, slightly down from $90.447 billion in the previous month [3] - The contribution of major trading partners to export growth showed a decline for the EU, ASEAN, Japan, and South Korea, while the US's contribution increased [5] Group 2: Transportation and Industrial Indicators - The subway passenger volume index in first-tier cities showed a slight recovery, reporting 40.61 million trips, up from 40.55 million [12] - The industrial production index increased to 117 from 113, with specific sectors like methanol and tires showing recovery, while soda ash declined [14] Group 3: Domestic Policy Developments - Premier Li Qiang co-hosted the 30th regular meeting of Chinese and Russian Prime Ministers with Russian Prime Minister Mishustin, emphasizing the deepening of Sino-Russian friendship [16][17] - Li Qiang also met with Georgian Prime Minister Kobakhidze to discuss economic cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative [17] Group 4: International Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a significant probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, with a 66.9% chance of this occurring [26] - The current economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are influencing the Fed's potential policy decisions [26] Group 5: Industry Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery leading to a "stronger stronger" market trend, and the resurgence of undervalued sectors [28] - The initial phase of the bull market favors high-growth sectors, while later phases may see a shift towards cyclical stocks with better performance as the economic fundamentals improve [28]

Core Viewpoint - European major stock markets experienced a positive start, with significant gains in indices and rising commodity prices, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The German DAX index increased by 0.72% [1] - The French CAC40 index saw a slight rise of 0.09% [1] - The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.18% [1] - The Russian MOEX index performed notably well with a gain of 1.35% [1] - In the US pre-market, the three major indices collectively rose, with Nasdaq futures up by 1.35% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Gold prices surpassed the $4000 mark, reaching $4014.59 per ounce [1] - Wheat prices increased to $5.40 per bushel [1] - International oil prices also rose, with US crude at $61.19 per barrel and Brent crude at $65.01 per barrel [1] Group 3: Currency Exchange - The euro appreciated against the US dollar, rising by 0.33% to 1.1527 [1]

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 31.5%, cement dispatch rates at 37.4%, and grinding mill operation rates at 37.2% compared to historical averages[13][14]. - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates at 86.3% and PTA rates at 76.5%[24][25]. - Demand for construction materials is weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical lows, and automotive sales showing a decline[32][33]. Price Trends - International commodity prices have rebounded, with crude oil and copper prices increasing, while gold prices have decreased[41][43]. - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing mixed trends, with iron ore and rebar prices rising, while chemical products are showing weakness[44][50]. Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have seen a year-on-year decline, with a 21% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, but still down 34% and 33% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[64][66]. - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with year-on-year declines of 24%, 16%, and 31% in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively[68][69]. Export Performance - October exports are projected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.9%, with port throughput up 8.9% compared to 2024[71][72]. Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen an upward trend in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.46% as of October 31[76][78].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the concept of living in a deflationary country while investing in inflationary assets, highlighting the potential benefits of such a strategy [4][6][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of finding inflationary assets that can maintain or increase value in an inflationary environment, categorizing them into seven types [17][31] - It provides examples of successful cases, such as Swiss and Japanese high-net-worth individuals who have effectively invested overseas while residing in low-inflation environments [10][12][14] Group 2 - The article outlines three conditions necessary for effective cross-border asset allocation: the ability to allocate assets internationally, living in a stable or deflationary country without compromising quality of life, and ensuring investment targets are decoupled from the local deflation [10] - It identifies seven categories of inflationary assets, including precious metals, commodities, high pricing power stocks, emerging market stocks, inflation-linked bonds, rental real estate, and technology stocks in deflationary environments [17][18][20][22][24][26][28][29] - The article concludes that understanding inflation is crucial for making informed investment decisions, as it serves as a fundamental principle that can clarify various investment phenomena [32][34][35]