前言 一边是美国对中国稀土的严重依赖，军工、人工智能等行业都快"断粮"了；一边却对仅占0.7%农地的中国企业挥起大棒。 这反差大得让人哭笑不得——特朗普这是要和谁过不去？明明自己被"掐住了脖子"，偏要在无关紧要的地方找回面子。 这种"鸵鸟心态"能解决根本问题吗？美国真正害怕的又是什么？ 作者：含 数字背后的荒谬逻辑 特朗普这次是真急眼了。拿农田说事儿，说白了就是想要筹码。91票对7票，这个票数差距大得让人下巴都要掉了。 两年前这项法案在美国参议院通过时，压倒性到让人怀疑那7票是不是按错了。可是吧，偏偏在中美贸易谈判的关键时刻，特朗普把这份"冷饭"重新端上了 桌。 更绝的是，数据一摆出来简直让人无语。中国企业在美国的农地持有比例只有0.7%，还没有一个零头大。 反观加拿大29%、荷兰14%，人家大摇大摆地买，美国眼皮都不眨一下。就中国这点儿份额，能威胁什么国家安全？ 说实话，明眼人都看得出来，这不是农田问题，是稀土问题。美国现在对中国稀土的依赖程度，已经到了离了就要"断粮"的地步。 军工、人工智能、新能源汽车，这些美国最引以为傲的产业，全都因为稀土供应而面临"半停工"的尴尬。 特朗普能不急吗？问题是，急也不能乱 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that participants believe it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year as inflation and activity outlooks become clearer [1] - The U.S. soybean export net sales for the week ending July 3 are expected to be between 300,000 to 600,000 tons for the 2024/25 marketing year, and between 50,000 to 400,000 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year [1] - In June, the national consumer price index in China rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with urban prices up by 0.1% and rural prices down by 0.2% [1] Group 2 - The average transaction price for low-sulfur coking coal in Lishi, Shanxi, reached 1,123 yuan per ton, an increase of 123 yuan per ton compared to June 25, due to market sentiment and lack of participation from coal mines in recent auctions [1] - The sugar production in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons, with sugarcane crushing down by 9.7% year-on-year to 44.24 million tons [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production is projected to increase to 19.5 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, reflecting a growth of 0.5% [1] Group 3 - The total inventory of refined oil at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE reached 20.685 million barrels, an increase of 152,900 barrels from the previous week [1] - U.S. crude oil exports rose by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day for the week ending July 4, while strategic petroleum reserve stocks increased by 23,800 barrels to 403 million barrels [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025 on the London Stock Exchange, adjusting the U.S. copper import tariff benchmark from 25% to 50% [1] Group 4 - The photovoltaic industry is advancing a plan to "reduce internal competition and cut capacity," aiming to establish a platform company for debt acquisition of excess capacity, which will help balance supply and demand [1] - The international oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil closing at $68.29 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel, while the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 7.07 million barrels [1] - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold rising by 0.17% to $3,322.50 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce, influenced by trade tensions prompting central banks to increase gold purchases [1]

Trade Surplus - Brazil's trade surplus in June was $5.889 billion [1] Export Volumes - In June, crude oil exports reached 7.97 million tons, up from 6.90 million tons in the same month last year [1] - Soybean exports totaled 13.42 million tons, a decrease from 13.96 million tons year-on-year [1] - Corn exports were 369,533 tons, down from 850,892 tons in the same month last year [1] - Iron ore exports amounted to 36.33 million tons, an increase from 33.10 million tons year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a new green production technology for soybeans, which has shown an average yield increase of 15% across various demonstration sites in China [1][3]. - The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences has emphasized the importance of increasing soybean production as a national strategic need, with the central government prioritizing this in its policy documents [2]. - New soybean varieties developed by the oilseed research institute have demonstrated significant yield potential, with "Zhongdou 57" achieving an average yield of 276.1 kg per mu and "Zhongdou 63" reaching 344.3 kg per mu in southern regions [2]. Group 2 - The ARC biological coupling technology, developed by the research team, addresses two major challenges in soybean production: quality improvement and nitrogen fixation, contributing to the overall yield increase [3]. - The new soybean varieties, such as "Zhongdou 62" and "Zhongdou 81," have high protein content, making them advantageous for soybean product processing [2]. - The oil content of varieties "You 6019" and "Zhongdou 79" has been reported at 22.55% and 23.54%, respectively, with a yield increase of over 10% compared to control varieties, showcasing their high yield and disease resistance [2].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特09合约涨2.78%。伊朗总统批准该国暂停与国际原子能机构的合作，围 绕伊核问题的中东地缘风险再度升温，7月9日到期日前美国与越南达成贸易协议亦令贸易战风险弱 化。原油供需面宽松主题延续，上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加384.5万桶，汽油表需低于预期水 平,旺季因素亦难扭转OPEC+快速增产预期之下的全球石油累库趋势。关注宏观及她缘利多因素的 发酵空间，原油供需指引仍偏负面。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。本周鲍威尔讲话重申在经济依然稳健的情况下美联储选择保持耐心，下一步 行动将完全取决于数据表现。昨晚美国ADP就业人数减少3.3万人录得2023年3月以来最大降幅，市 场降息预期升温，聚焦非农数据对就业的验证，因美国独立纪念日该数据将于今晚公布。 （铜） 隔夜美盘铜价高位领涨，伦铜收在1万美元以上。美国ADP私人就业人数意外下降，市场继续交易7 月降息概率。特朗普表示与越南完成20%出口关税、对转口征收40%出口关税的协议,威胁对日高关 税。沪铜关注现价跟调力度与现货升贴水。技术上，短线沪 ...

Group 1 - The rumor regarding Tangshan's sintering machine production cut of 30% from July 4 to 15 has been confirmed by approximately half of the steel mills, with a likelihood of confirmation from the remaining mills. Current production is 270,000 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 83%, which may drop to 70% under the new policy, resulting in a reduction of 30,000 tons per day [1] - In the Ordos region, most coal mines are maintaining stable production, with some previously reduced or shut down mines gradually resuming operations, leading to a recovery in overall coal supply [1] - India's palm oil imports surged by 61% month-on-month in June, reaching 953,000 tons, the highest level in 11 months, while total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1,530,000 tons, marking a seven-month high [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, with East China seeing an increase of 13,500 tons and South China experiencing a decrease of 10,300 tons [2] - The Indonesian government plans to shorten the mining quota (RKAB) duration from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and mineral supplies [2] - Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center indicates that soybean procurement for August shipping is nearly complete, with September shipping at nearly 50% and no purchases for October to December shipping, highlighting the need to monitor future purchases and import arrivals of soybeans [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-24 生猪均重下降，惜售情绪反复 油脂：技术下行压力增大，警惕地缘冲击风险 蛋⽩粕：阿根廷大豆产量预估上调，豆类区间上沿回调 ⽟⽶/淀粉：到车量高位，华北阶段性横盘 ⽣猪：体重库存下降，惜售情绪反复 橡㬵：延续震荡走势 合成橡㬵：方向不明确，区间震荡 纸浆：规则变化带来波动，基本面弱势压制涨势 棉花：棉价小幅走弱 ⽩糖：糖价短期反弹 原⽊：交割博弈持续，盘面近强远弱 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：体重库存下降，惜售情绪反复 信息： （1）现货价格：6月23日，河南生猪（外三元）价格14.72元/千克，环比 变化1.1%。 （2）期货价格：6月23日，生猪期货收盘价(活跃合约)13980元/吨，环比 变化+0.6%。 主要逻辑：（1）供应：短期，大猪出栏比例继续增加，出栏均重仍在下 降。中期，2025年1月~5月新生仔猪数量持续增加，按照仔猪→商品猪6个 月出栏时间推算，预计下半年生猪出栏量呈递增趋势，供应压力继续增 长。长期，当前产能仍在高位，据农业部口径，全国能繁母猪存栏在2024 年底增至高点后，2025年一季度母猪产能在 ...

2025年06月24日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。 基本面：特朗普称以色列伊朗同意停火，原油大跌。美国 PMI 数据超预期，欧洲 PMI 数据偏弱。供应端，铜 | | | | 矿紧张格局延续，嘉能可称 mountain ISA 冶炼厂难以继续运营。需求端，保持一定韧性，华东华南平水铜升 | | | 铜 | 水 70 元和 20 元，伦敦结构 392 美金 back。 | | | | 交易策略：维持逢低买入思路。 | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日无明显变化，收于 20365 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 435 | 元/ | | | 吨，LME 价格 2559 美元/吨。 | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略：伦铝强制要求持有近月合约头寸超过可用库存的交易商减仓，限制现货流动性风险，铝锭自 | 6 月 ...

美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

美国生物燃料政策超预期，能否确保美国大豆产业的市场份额？市场如何反应？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...