投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2025/7/25 | 指标 | | 7月24日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 15 | 40 | 2500 2000 | -----19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------ 22/23 -- 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 天津 | -85 | -30 | 1500 1000 | | | | | 日照 | -165 | 10 | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -165 | 10 | -900 | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | 东莞 | -145 | 50 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | | | ----- 2019/20 == == ===== 2022/23 | | | | 湛江 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily strategy recommendations for feed, breeding, and oil industries, including market analysis, support and resistance levels, and trading strategies for various commodities such as soybeans, palm oil, and livestock [3][4][5]. - It also presents data on import costs, inventory, and operating rates for these industries, as well as charts for tracking market fundamentals and option volatility [16][18][80]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, while soybean No. 2 09 contract will adjust. Peanut 10 contract is likely to decline. Long positions in soybean oil 01 contract can be held [11]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil 09 contract will fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be taken at low levels. Palm oil 09 contract is expected to rise, and long positions should be held [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 09 contract is expected to fall, and long positions should be closed. Rapeseed meal 09 contract will decline, and long positions should be exited [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 09 and starch 09 contracts will fluctuate, and short positions can be reduced at low levels [11]. - **Livestock**: Pig 09 contract will rebound, and long positions can be reduced at high levels. Egg 09 contract will bottom - hunt, and long positions can be taken at low levels [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, the recommended strategy is to wait and see. However, for some, such as soybean meal 11 - 1, a positive spread strategy is recommended, and for pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1, a positive spread strategy at low levels is suggested [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides spot prices, price changes, and basis information for various commodities in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It includes import cost data for soybeans from different origins and shipping dates, rapeseeds, and palm oil [16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows inventory and operating rate data for beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import cost data for corn from Argentina and Brazil are provided [18]. - **Weekly Data**: Data on corn consumption, inventory, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory are presented [19]. 3. Breeding - It provides daily and weekly data on the pig and egg markets, including prices, costs, profits, and inventory [20][22][24]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End**: Charts for tracking the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as spot prices, are provided [25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts for palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, including production, exports, inventory, and trading volume, are presented [34][47][54]. - **Feed End**: Charts for corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal, including inventory, consumption, and processing profits, are shown [58][64][72]. Part IV: Option Situation for Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as option trading volume and open interest for corn, are provided [80]. Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation for Feed, Breeding, and Oils - Charts for warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs are presented [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report predicts that CBOT soybeans may fluctuate slightly upward, while DCE soybean meal may experience a volatile trend, and DCE soybeans are expected to remain in a sideways pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4,224 yuan/ton during the day session, down 5 yuan (-0.12%), and 4,221 yuan during the night session, up 15 yuan (+0.36%); DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,025 yuan/ton during the day session, down 71 yuan (-2.29%), and 3,029 yuan during the night session, down 12 yuan (-0.39%); CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1,025 cents/bushel, up 2.5 cents (+0.24%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.2 dollars/short ton, down 2.4 dollars (-0.84%) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) is 2,920 - 2,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to unchanged from the previous day; in East China, it is 2,840 - 2,900 yuan/ton, down 20 or 30 yuan; in South China, it is 2,900 - 2,940 yuan/ton, down 30 - 40 yuan [2]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 201,500 tons per day, compared with 107,500 tons the day before; the inventory was 908,300 tons per week, compared with 842,900 tons the week before [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 24, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. Except for the August contract, which declined, other contracts slightly rose. Technical buying and trade hopes drove the gains, despite pressure from a weak neighboring soybean meal market, a lower - than - expected US soybean export sales report, and favorable weather in US soybean - growing regions [2][4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [4].

投资咨询证号： Z0015458 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 7 月 24 日 【粕类日报】供应压力增加 粕类大幅回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/7/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3059 | -57 | 天津 | -70 | -100 | 3 0 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2753 | -16 | | -180 | -200 | 2 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 3025 | -70 | | -170 | -190 | 2 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -170 | -190 | 2 0 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2412 | -32 | 南通 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - On July 24, soybeans declined significantly while oils and fats were generally strong. Soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated weakly, relying on the 5 - day moving average. Soybean No. 2 futures prices dropped by over 1.5%. Soybean meal futures prices fell sharply by over 2%, and rapeseed meal futures prices dropped by over 2.6%. Among oils and fats, soybean oil futures prices rose by over 1%, palm oil futures prices rose by over 1.3%, and rapeseed oil futures prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - In the soybean market, with the departure of long - position funds, futures prices dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of US trade negotiations, which will affect US soybean export prospects. In the short term, the market is more volatile, but the rebound trend remains intact. In the oil and fat market, palm oil led the rise, followed by soybean oil. Energy attributes and oil - meal arbitrage boosted the market [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Brazilian soybean exports**: In July 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 12.11 million tons, lower than the previous estimate. It is 26% higher than the same period last year but 10% lower than June. From July 20 - 26, the weekly export volume increased by 9.9% [8]. - **US soybean yield forecast**: South American crop expert Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, with a production of 4.335 billion bushels [8]. - **Paraguayan soybean exports**: In the first half of 2025, Paraguay's soybean export volume was 4.106112 million tons, a 25.1% decrease from the same period last year. The export value decreased by 30.5%. Due to drought, the 2025 production is expected to decline [9]. - **Indonesian palm oil production and trade**: In May 2025, Indonesia's crude palm oil production decreased by 7.01% to 4.165 million tons. Domestic consumption decreased by 3.4%, and exports increased by 49.75%. From January - May, the production was about 2.08% higher than the same period in 2024 [10]. - **US - Indonesia - Malaysia palm oil trade**: After the US reduced the tariff on Indonesia to 19%, Indonesia is expected to maintain its dominant position in the US palm oil market. Malaysia is still negotiating with the US, facing a 25% tariff [12]. 2. Spot Market Prices - The prices of imported second - class soybeans in Dalian and the average soybean price remained unchanged. The prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and the average price decreased. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in relevant regions increased [13][15]. 3. Oil Mill Pressing Profits - The pressing profits of oil mills vary by location and the type of soybeans used (domestic or imported). For example, in Heilongjiang, the profit is 3.40 yuan/ton, while in Dalian (domestic), it is - 219.60 yuan/ton [16]. 4. Related Charts - The document mentions multiple charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21][23][25][27].

CBOT农产品晚间分析：美豆连跌三日后止跌反弹，中国买家持续缺席，后市还靠谁撑？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Soybean meal and live pigs prices decline, palm oil and sugar prices rise, while cotton, corn, eggs, and jujubes show fluctuating trends, and apples rise steadily. Each product's price movement is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade, and seasonal characteristics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Movement**: The soybean meal 2509 contract drops significantly due to ample supply and long - position liquidation. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve soybean imports, and the domestic soybean meal supply increases with port arrivals and high oil - mill operation rates, leading to inventory accumulation over 1 million tons [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [2]. Palm Oil - **Price Movement**: The palm oil 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. Indonesian palm oil exports surge, with a 4.27% month - on - month decline in inventory in May and a nearly 50% month - on - month increase in exports. In June, exports increased by 30.5% month - on - month. The active promotion of the biodiesel plan and rising domestic import costs support the price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract shows a strong upward trend above all moving averages, with a bullish moving - average arrangement and an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8980 and resistance at 9150 [3]. Live Pigs - **Price Movement**: The live pig 2509 contract drops sharply. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' stable - market policy dampens short - term production - reduction expectations. Weak demand, high temperatures, and increased alternative consumption lead to sluggish pork sales [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract breaks below short - term moving averages, indicating a weakening trend. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14280 and resistance at 14500 [5]. Cotton - **Price Movement**: The cotton 2509 contract oscillates with a negative close. The domestic commercial cotton inventory consumption accelerates, but potential quota increases may add to the supply. Import volume from January to June is 460,000 tons, a 74% year - on - year decrease. The downstream textile industry is in a slack season, with poor orders and rising finished - product inventory [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract adjusts at a high level, with long - position liquidation. The price falls below the 5 - day moving average but is supported by the 10 - day moving average. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 14090 and resistance at 14205 [7]. Corn - **Price Movement**: The corn 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly. The continuous auction of imported corn by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation has a shrinking transaction rate. Wheat substitution and the approaching spring - corn harvest pressure the price, while imports in June are 156,000 tons, an 82.7% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract fluctuates around short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2308 and resistance at 2330 [9]. Sugar - **Price Movement**: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract rises strongly, hitting a new high. The high sales rate during the summer consumption peak and low inventory support the price, but the expected increase in imported sugar is a resistance factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract stands above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 5825 and resistance at 5900 [11]. Eggs - **Price Movement**: The egg 2509 contract fluctuates narrowly after large swings. The supply side has high pressure from newly - laid eggs, but hot weather reduces laying rates and inventory is low at all levels. The demand peak is delayed, and the high futures premium limits the rebound space [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract enters a narrow - fluctuation phase after large - scale oscillations, with both long and short positions reducing. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3610 and resistance at 3652 [14]. Soybean Oil - **Price Movement**: The soybean oil 2509 contract oscillates upward, entering an uptrend. The strong performance of palm oil drives soybean oil up, but the high arrival of imported soybeans and rising inventory may limit the increase [15][17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rebounds above the moving - average system, showing a strengthening trend. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8068 and resistance at 8198 [17]. Jujubes - **Price Movement**: The jujube 2601 contract first declines and then rises, showing an oscillating trend. New - jujube production is estimated to be 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease, but the reduction is less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is higher than last year [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract oscillates downward with narrow fluctuations. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10360 and resistance at 10680 [18]. Apples - **Price Movement**: The apple 2510 contract rises steadily. The inventory is at a five - year low, with 704,500 tons as of July 23, a decrease of 101,500 tons from the previous period. The high price of early - maturing apples boosts market confidence, but weather risks exist during the fruit - expansion period [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The contract rises steadily above the moving - average system, hitting a new high, with an expanding MACD red column. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 7932 and resistance at 8014 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Corn is expected to show a volatile trend. The 9 - month contract has rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region has increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. However, the futures price is facing technical resistance and may show a short - term weakening trend [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish. Although the demand growth rate is expected to slow down, the import cost is rising, and the spread trading strategy of 91 and 15 is recommended [1]. - The price of palm oil is expected to be bullish. Due to short - covering and the rise of the surrounding market, the inventory in Indonesia has decreased, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased steadily. A long - only strategy and 91 spread trading are recommended [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to be volatile. Although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues such as high inventory and cold - stored eggs may limit the increase [1][2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be volatile. Although the market is currently supported by optimistic sentiment, the problem of over - capacity still exists [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the weighted corn contract continued to reduce positions and adjust. The 9 - month contract rebounded, and the spot price in the Northeast region increased. The price in the华北 region was stable, and the price in the sales area rebounded slightly. Technically, the futures price faced resistance at the 2320 - 2330 price range and showed a short - term weakening trend [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestically, the price of soybean meal rose, driven by the increase in import cost. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down due to policy measures [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On Wednesday, the BMD palm oil futures price closed higher. In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased, and the export volume increased significantly. Domestically, the palm oil price led the rise, and the inventory increased steadily [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2509 closed up 0.44%. The spot price increased slightly. In the future, although the demand is expected to increase in the peak season, the supply issues may limit the increase [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Wednesday, the main live pig contract 2509 closed up 1.46%. The spot price decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the problem of over - capacity still exists, but short - term rebound is possible [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to adjust the pig production capacity and promote the substitution of soybean meal [3]. - Indonesia expects an increase in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 [3]. - In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [3]. - Canada has adjusted its rapeseed production forecast. The 2024/25 production is raised, while the 2025/26 production is lowered [4]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% compared to the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides information on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [6][8][9][12]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides information on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [14][18][24][26].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily report on agricultural products, specifically focusing on the soybean and bean meal markets [4][5] - It was released by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on July 24, 2025 [5] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - The basis of the main bean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on July 23 was -25, with a change of 21. Other locations like Tianjin had a basis of -55 (change of 51), and Rizhao had -175 (change of 11) [6] - The basis of 43% bean meal spot in different locations such as Zhangjiagang (-175, change of -9), Dongguan (-195, change of 11), etc., was also reported [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was -128 [6] Spread Data - The M9 - M1 spread was -21, M9 - RM9 was -3, and RM9 - 1 was 15. The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 337 (change of -13), and the spread of the main contract was 270 (change of -10) [7] Exchange Rate and Profit Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1137. The soybean CNF premium was 110.00 cents per bushel, and the import soybean gross profit was reported for different Brazilian months [7] Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - The supply side shows that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%. In the next two weeks, parts of Kansas and Nebraska may face high - temperature and drought conditions, but overall, the weather is favorable for soybean growth. With the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of bean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September [7] - On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand. The high cost - performance of bean meal increases its proportion in feed, and提货 is at a high level. However, wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein demand [8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises for bean meal have increased [8] Group 3: Core View - Overall, domestic bean meal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. There are no conditions for a sharp rise in short - term spot prices. With a low basis, the upside space above 009 is limited. Under the support of import costs, it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on M01 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The external raw sugar market continues to decline. Despite a downward adjustment in Brazil's production forecast, strong production increase expectations in the Northern Hemisphere are pressuring prices. In China, imports of syrup premixes in June were still significantly lower year - on - year but increased compared to the previous month. Policy adjustments have shifted imports, but the supply gap is widening. With strong supply and demand of domestic sugar, low inventory pressure on enterprises, and firm spot prices, there is still support for futures prices. However, import pressure is gradually materializing, with 750,000 tons of out - of - quota sugar expected to arrive in July, and large - scale imports of sugarcane in Yunnan this year are also suppressing prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are oscillating within a range [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The recent sentiment in the domestic commodity market is positive, and the re - inflation expectation has driven low - priced commodities to strengthen. The fundamentals of the pulp market have changed little. Finished paper prices are weakly stable at low levels, and the off - season impact persists, with little short - term improvement in terminal demand. Suppliers' quotes are firm despite weak demand, port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. The market should be cautious about the height of the price increase [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: Globally, the new - season cotton market has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking situation, putting pressure on the market. High - yielding cotton from South America and Australia is on the market, the good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly improved, and there are no obvious abnormal weather conditions in the production areas for now. However, there are still differences in the planted area, yield per unit, and abandonment rate in the US, which provide potential support and limit the continuous decline of prices. In the domestic market, there is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the short - term upward momentum of futures prices has slowed down [5][6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at high levels. The recent price increase is due to overall positive commodity sentiment, the drive from the jujube market, and its own fundamental support, including low old - season inventory, a slight reduction in new - season production, and a year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples. In the later period, low old - season inventory increases the possibility of a supply gap between the old and new seasons, and the high opening price of early - maturing apples further increases the market's expectation of a high opening price, but the extent of the increase is limited, and the actual situation depends on the new - season production, quality, and harvest progress [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: After a continuous sharp rise in commodities, the sentiment has cooled. This week, short - covering has led to a collective sharp rebound in commodities, and jujube futures prices have followed the upward trend. The jujube futures have been in a wide - range oscillation. The warehouse receipts have slightly flowed out, and the 9 - 1 spread has continued to widen and then oscillated more sharply. The current spot inventory of jujubes is seasonally decreasing, but the overall remaining inventory is still not low. Attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the fruit - setting period from late July to August [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2510**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The main logic is that general consumption restricts the spot price, the new - season initial production estimate is better than before, and the overall futures price is expected to remain within a range. The support range is 7300 - 7350, and the pressure range is 8000 - 8100 [16]. - **Jujube 2601**: Hold long positions. The main logic is that the overall commodity sentiment is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Sugar 2509**: Short - term band trading. The main logic is that the external raw sugar continues to decline, the domestic spot price is firm but import pressure is suppressing, and the futures price is in a narrow - range consolidation. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [16]. - **Pulp 2507**: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamental situation is stable, finished paper prices are weak, overseas prices have been adjusted downward, and the recent domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [16]. - **Cotton 2509**: Reduce long positions at high prices. The main logic is that previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices are disturbing the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,900 tons. As of July 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 435,200 tons. The estimated national apple output from the bagging survey is 36.5904 million tons, a 2.03% decrease from the previous year. According to Mysteel statistics, the 2025 - 2026 apple production season shows a slight increase trend, with the preliminary estimated national output of 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 season [17]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, storage merchants are willing to sell, and merchants purchase on demand. In the Qixia area, the mainstream transaction price of cold - storage paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade slice - red fruit farmers' goods is 3.0 - 3.8 yuan per jin. In Shaanxi, the Qinyang variety has been gradually listed, with the price in the Qianxian area similar to last year and the price of good - quality goods in the Tongchuan area higher than last year. In the sales areas, the sales speed is slow, and the price is stable [18]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 18, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons or 1.57% compared to the previous week and a 71.08% increase year - on - year. Affected by the rise in the futures price, the spot prices in various sales areas have slightly increased, and there are more downstream price - inquiring customers. However, due to the off - season, terminal demand support is limited, and market transactions are mainly for goods reselling. Attention should be paid to the flower - setting and fruit - setting situations in the new - season production areas [19]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of Wednesday morning, the quoted price of sugar - making enterprises in the Kunming spot market remained at 5860 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. Some merchants quoted 5830 - 5840 yuan per ton in the Kunming market. The spot market quoted prices of sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi were adjusted down to 6010 - 6030 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price), and some merchants' quoted prices were adjusted down to 6010 - 6020 yuan per ton (sugar factory truck - loading price) [21]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market Although demand is weak, suppliers' quotes for imported NBSK have been firm in the past week. Port inventories are piling up, and the downstream papermaking market is performing poorly in the off - season, resulting in sufficient overall supply and low buyer replenishment enthusiasm. Arauco announced on July 17 that the order price of its Uruguay Punta Pereira factory's bleached hardwood pulp in July would be reduced by 10 US dollars per ton to 490 US dollars per ton. At the same time, it will resume quoting prices for Chinese customers for its bleached hardwood pulp products from its Chilean pulp mill at 500 US dollars per ton. Brazilian suppliers have informed Chinese buyers that their July bleached hardwood pulp quote is 500 US dollars per ton. The South American bleached hardwood pulp evaluation price is 490 - 500 US dollars per ton, the same as last week [23][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market As of July 21, 2025, the cotton in Xinjiang has entered the peak flowering and boll - setting period, with a flowering rate of about 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 5.8 percentage points. The average number of bolls is 5.3, a month - on - month increase of 1.3. In the main cotton - producing areas of Argentina, the weather has been sunny recently, which is beneficial for new - cotton picking, and the progress is expected to reach 75%. The processing work will continue until September and October [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7956 | 27 | 0.34% | | Jujube 2509 | 9575 | 90 | 0.95% | | Sugar 2509 | 5834 | 11 | 0.19% | | Pulp 2509 | 5414 | 46 | 0.86% | | Cotton 2509 | 14180 | - 45 | - 0.32% | [26] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan per kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15543 | - 6 | - 163 | [34] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 14 - 17). 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 139 | 13 | 42 | Oscillate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1020 | - 1005 | - 655 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 178 | 8 | - 71 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | [50] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 24 - 69). 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8912 | 0 | - 2704 | | Sugar | 21098 | - 261 | 4877 | | Pulp | 255819 | 0 | - 251790 | | Cotton | 9382 | - 54 | - 2728 | [73] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific text content provided, only figure references (Figures 46 - 84).