省委十一届十次全会，是现代化河南建设壮阔进程中浓墨重彩的一笔，与每个人的生活紧密相连。 这次全会审议通过的《中共河南省委关于制定河南省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 （以下简称《建议》），对河南未来五年发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画，是指导我省"十五五"时期经济 社会发展的纲领性文件。 《建议》立足省情、放眼全局，对标对表党的二十届四中全会部署，对我省"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系中 的"N"赋予新的任务和要求。11月30日，在中共河南省委举行的新闻发布会上，多部门负责同志回答记 者提问，从不同侧面介绍《建议》的核心要义与实践路径，共同勾勒出一幅务实而又充满希望的奋进蓝 图。 1.聚焦实体经济建设现代化产业体系 "《建议》把'推动实体经济高质量发展，建设现代化产业体系'摆在重点工作任务第一位，这为我们'十 五五'时期加快推进制造业高质量发展提供了遵循、增添了动力。"省工业和信息化厅党组书记、厅长严 琛说。 展望"十五五"，我省将步入建设现代化产业体系的"关键期"，科技创新和产业创新、先进制造业和现代 服务业、数字经济和实体经济深度融合的"加速期"，因地制宜发展新质生产力的"攻坚期"。严琛表示， 将做好 ...

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement [1] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation-type funds, but there is a lack of incremental funds with individual stock pricing power, leading to higher valuation and safety margin requirements for subjective long positions [1] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors as well as companies expanding overseas [1] Group 2 - December is expected to be a favorable time for "profit-making effects," with a shift in market dynamics from low to high win rates around the Spring Festival and Two Sessions [2] - The average duration of the "spring market" is about 20 trading days, with a focus on sectors with positive earnings forecasts for the upcoming year [2] - Many sectors have already seen adjustments of around 20%, making December a good time to start observing potential investments [2] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and a warming expectation of global liquidity, with a focus on sectors with high growth forecasts for 2026 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand, with an emphasis on policy support and sustainable valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market rally, particularly in AI applications and domestic computing power industries [3] Group 4 - December is anticipated to mark the beginning of a cross-year market rally, with a high probability of upward movement following three months of consolidation [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in non-bank financials and sectors influenced by upcoming policy directions from key meetings [4] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is seen as advantageous for capitalizing on the cross-year market [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with a focus on technology growth and resource sectors [6] - Key industries to consider include non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The theme of commercial aerospace is highlighted as a significant area of interest [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is entering a critical policy observation window, with expectations of increased risk appetite and a favorable environment for cross-year market positioning [7] - Key sectors include commercial aerospace, AI applications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts [7] - The focus on industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" is emphasized for investment opportunities [7] Group 7 - The cross-year and spring market strategies are highlighted as key focus areas for December, with policy factors being a core driver [8] - The market is expected to transition from value-driven to growth-driven dynamics, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance in recent years [8] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide new investment themes if specific industry proposals are introduced [8] Group 8 - The current A-share market is assessed as being in a high-cut-low phase, with expectations of continued volatility until the end of the year [9] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point level is seen as crucial for future performance, with a need for a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth [9] - The technology sector is expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, with a focus on resource sectors as potential winners [9] Group 9 - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant room for growth, but short-term volatility is expected due to a lack of strong catalysts [10] - Defensive and consumer sectors are recommended for short-term focus, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted for mid-term investment [10] - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, with high-dividend and consumer sectors likely to perform better [10] Group 10 - The foundation supporting the current liquidity-driven bull market remains solid, with potential for improved earnings and capital inflows to extend the bull market [11] - The market may experience volatility due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets, but opportunities for upward movement are expected as policies and funding conditions improve [11] - The focus on clearing capacity and inventory, along with the commercialization of emerging industries like AI, is seen as crucial for market health [11]

Group 1: Industrial Profit and Economic Indicators - In October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was -5.5%, down from 21.6%, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth[4] - The industrial added value year-on-year growth was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous period[4] - The PPI year-on-year was -2.1%, slightly improved from -2.3%[4] - The operating income profit margin fell from 18.7% to -5.7% year-on-year due to rising costs and a high base effect from last year[4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - During the "Black Friday" shopping season, 1.87 billion consumers are expected to participate, a record high, but average planned spending decreased by 4% to $622[7] - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 51 in November, down from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low[7] - In November, the PMI marginally increased by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by seasonal factors, with price indices performing better than recent futures market prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Policy Responses - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export fluctuations and profit declines[3] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing consumer supply and demand compatibility through a new implementation plan aimed at optimizing consumption structures by 2027[19] - The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 12.5% from 34,800 yuan/ton to 39,100 yuan/ton due to regulatory measures against price competition[15]

Group 1 - The market adjustment has temporarily concluded, and December is an important macroeconomic window, suggesting early positioning for the spring rally [2][10][14] - The core driving force of the current bull market remains unchanged, with liquidity still in a loose state and the fundamentals undergoing mild recovery [10][18][23] - The recent market adjustment was primarily caused by the inability to form strong macro expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the transmission of overseas liquidity risks [10][12][14] Group 2 - The growth style is expected to continue, with historical data indicating a higher probability of style continuation rather than switching during market adjustments [3][25][26] - The current market environment is conducive to small-cap stocks, which tend to outperform in a loose liquidity context [4][28][30] - Small-cap stocks are likely to lead the next phase of the recovery due to their characteristics and the current macroeconomic conditions [4][28][34] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on a dual-driven approach of technology and cyclical sectors, with opportunities emerging in underperforming growth industries [5][39] - Specific sectors to consider include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside cyclical beneficiaries from PPI improvements [5][39] - The overall investment strategy emphasizes a balanced allocation between technology and cyclical sectors to capture potential market movements [5][39]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a slight rebound this week, but overall sentiment continues to decline, indicating weak rebound strength and ongoing challenges from resistance levels [1] Market Outlook - Despite potential short-term volatility, the company believes that any downturn could present better investment opportunities [1] - The slow bull market pattern remains unchanged, with expectations for an early spring rally next year under a consensus view [1] Investment Strategy - The company suggests strategically positioning for the year-end market before the key meeting in mid-December to prepare for the cross-year market [1] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth and resource sectors that are currently in favorable conditions [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include non-ferrous metals (copper, silver), AI (communications, computers), new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, machinery, Hong Kong internet, and chemicals [1] - Thematic focus includes commercial aerospace [1]

Core Insights - The report suggests a high probability of an upward breakout in the market, leading to a cross-year rally, particularly due to anticipated positive economic policy adjustments from the upcoming political meetings [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of December as a strategic month for investment, with increased demand for equity funds expected due to the influx of new insurance premiums and favorable currency conditions [2][3] - The report identifies three main investment directions: infrastructure and real estate, service consumption, and self-sufficiency, with a focus on policy-driven adjustments [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report lists a "golden stock" combination including companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology [2][4] - Specific insights into Luxshare Precision highlight its strong position in the Apple supply chain and its potential for robust growth across various sectors, including automotive [8][9] - Shengyi Technology is noted for its leading position in the CCL market, with expectations for continued high-end product upgrades and significant growth potential [12][13] - Century Huatong is recognized for its innovative gaming strategies and strong market position, particularly with its successful game releases [17] - Zhongji Xuchuang is positioned to benefit from increasing overseas demand for optical modules, with a strong production capacity [17] - Haiguang Information is expected to see growth in its DCU chip business due to domestic project implementations [24] - China Merchants Bank is highlighted for its prudent management and strong asset quality, with expectations for recovery in performance as economic conditions improve [24] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to grow significantly, driven by AI demand and a strong competitive position in the market [24] - Zijin Mining is anticipated to benefit from favorable commodity price trends, particularly in gold and copper [24] - Xingye Silver Tin is positioned as a leading silver producer with significant growth potential [20] - XGIMI Technology is expected to see revenue growth driven by market recovery and product innovation [20] Earnings Forecasts - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, Shengyi Technology, Century Huatong, Zhongji Xuchuang, Haiguang Information, Alibaba, Zijin Mining, Xingye Silver Tin, and XGIMI Technology are projected to achieve over 30% stable growth in earnings this year [5] Financial Metrics - Luxshare Precision is projected to have an EPS of 1.85 in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 22.03% [6] - Shengyi Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 0.72 in 2024 to 2.03 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 49.37% in 2024 [7] - Century Huatong's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.16 in 2024 to 1.11 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 131.51% in 2024 [7] - Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see significant growth in EPS from 4.61 in 2024 to 17.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 137.93% in 2024 [7] - Haiguang Information's EPS is projected to grow from 0.83 in 2024 to 2.01 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 52.87% in 2024 [7] - Alibaba's EPS is expected to rise from 3.91 in 2024 to 5.82 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 9.93% in 2024 [7] - Zijin Mining's EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.21 in 2024 to 2.24 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 51.76% in 2024 [7] - Xingye Silver Tin's EPS is projected to grow from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.39 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of 57.82% in 2024 [7] - XGIMI Technology's EPS is expected to rise from 1.72 in 2024 to 5.20 in 2026, with a net profit growth rate of -0.3% in 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on opportunities in resource and traditional manufacturing industries, highlighting the advantages of leading companies in sectors where China has a global market share [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics - The market is characterized by low volatility and a slow bull trend, with a notable decrease in the volatility of major broad-based indices [1] - The maximum drawdown of the Shanghai Composite Index this year is -9.7%, which is significantly lower than previous years, indicating a relatively stable market environment [1] - The Sharpe ratios for major indices have improved, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index exceeding 1, indicating favorable risk-adjusted returns [1] Group 2: Performance of Investment Strategies - Subjective long-only products have slightly outperformed the Wind All A index but continue to lag behind quantitative strategies, with average returns of 23.3% compared to 26.4% for Wind All A and 35.2% for quantitative products [2] - The gap between private and public subjective long strategies has reached a peak, with private strategies underperforming public ones by 7.6 percentage points [3] - The performance of balanced market selection products remains mediocre, indicating limited excess returns from stock selection despite significant index gains [2][3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Investment Behavior - There is a notable increase in allocation-type capital and quantitative pricing power, while the growth of active stock-picking funds is limited [4] - The influx of capital from insurance funds and "fixed income plus" products has contributed to market stability, but these funds are less sensitive to individual stock fundamentals [4] - The main source of active capital driving rapid increases in high-growth sectors has been margin financing, which has seen a net increase of approximately 700 billion yuan over two months [5] Group 4: Market Strategy and Outlook - The prevailing strategy among subjective long investors has become cautious, characterized by a "squat, hit, and withdraw" approach due to the lack of pricing power in individual stocks [6] - The report suggests that breaking the current market deadlock will require significant positive changes in fundamentals, particularly in domestic demand [7] - Without unexpected changes in fundamentals, the anticipated market movements may only reflect existing structural logic, limiting potential upside [7]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 28 日 从信念到模型验证：估值与周期双轮驱动 ——大宗商品中观轮动系列（二） | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | 李翔云（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03149627 | lixiangyun@gtht.com | 报告导读： 商品中观轮动的研究初衷，是将"主观+量化"理念有机结合并付诸实践。我们希望尽可能降低策略 中因子、参数及模型的特异性，注重策略的可解释性及可归因性，给出经得起时间验证的模型。我们构建 的月频品种簇中观轮动模型，样本内平均年化收益率 17.79%，夏普比率 1.44，回撤-5.70%，月度胜率 68.98%；样本外 2025 年 1-11 月总收益录得 15.43%，回撤录得 1.09%，月度胜率 70%，仅三个月录得负 收益率。 本篇报告是中观轮动系列的模型搭建部分： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the tariff exemptions on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026, which were originally set to expire on November 29, 2025 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to address disorderly price competition among enterprises to maintain market price order [2] - From January to October 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, but in October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement in key areas and fair competition reviews [2] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include lithium carbonate, coke, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - trading performance shows that different commodity futures sectors had varying degrees of price changes, with precious metals up 30.01%, non - metallic building materials up 3.02%, and so on [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, with different trends for each sector [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.29%, a monthly decrease of 2.01%, and a yearly increase of 15.62%. Other indices also had their respective performance [6] - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative returns to varying degrees [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index had different price changes [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed their own trends [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The downstream real estate sector shows a slight recovery, while the service industry's domestic flight frequency experiences a minor decline [1][3]. - Upstream nickel and egg prices rise, while international crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. Mid - stream PX, urea, and PTA prices fall, power plant coal consumption is at a low level, and asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: At the National Development and Reform Commission's November press conference on November 27, the commission responded to market hot - spot issues such as humanoid robots and the expansion of infrastructure REITs project issuance. It aims to prevent high - repetition humanoid robot products from flooding the market and promote the healthy and standardized development of the embodied intelligence industry [1]. - **Service Industry**: Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy the promotion of provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance. This is an important measure to improve the universal medical insurance system [1]. B. Industry Data - **Upstream**: - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Nickel prices rise slightly, with the spot price on November 27 at 119,366.7 yuan/ton, a 1.98% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recover, with the spot price on November 27 at 6.4 yuan/kg, a 2.74% year - on - year increase [3][38]. - **Energy**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices fluctuate downward. On November 27, the spot price of WTI crude oil is 58.7 dollars/barrel, a 1.33% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 62.5 dollars/barrel, a 1.53% year - on - year decrease; and the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 4,084 yuan/ton, a 2.34% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Chemical Industry**: PX, urea, and PTA prices fall. On November 27, the spot price of PTA is 4,628.3 yuan/ton, a 0.61% year - on - year decrease; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,980 yuan/ton, a 0.26% year - on - year decrease [3][38]. - **Energy**: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [3]. - **Infrastructure**: Asphalt construction is in the off - season [3]. - **Downstream**: - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - tier cities rise slightly [3]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreases slightly [3].