1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in the US in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in global risk appetite. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened, and the US President and Treasury Secretary have called for rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, economic growth slowed down, but policies such as personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies and the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce period may boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, the treasury bond may experience a high - level shock and correction, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Overseas**: The US CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, the core CPI annual rate reached a five - month high at 3.1%. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened. The US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. [2] - **Domestic**: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The trade deficit decreased, and the policy of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies may boost consumption. The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and domestic risk appetite continued to rise. [2] - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long position. The treasury bond is expected to experience a high - level shock and correction, with cautious observation. Different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious long or observation strategies. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as brain - computer interface, lithography machine, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market continued to rise. [3] - The economic growth in July slowed down, but policies may boost consumption, and the short - term macro - upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies, with a short - term cautious long position. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals fluctuated at a high level. The inflation data in the US in July was mixed, supporting the probability of a rate cut in September. The economic data continued to weaken, and the market expected a 94.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it pulls back to the support level. [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to rebound on Tuesday. The market risk appetite increased due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce. The actual demand continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The scope of production restrictions expanded, and the steel market was dominated by the macro - logic in the short term, with prices fluctuating strongly. [6] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to strengthen on Tuesday. The scope of production restrictions in the north expanded, and the iron ore supply decreased. The steel mills mainly replenished inventory on a need - basis. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6][7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Tuesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable, and the production in some regions increased. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [8] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Tuesday, driven by the expectation of supply tightening. The supply of soda ash increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. The demand support was weak, and the profit decreased. The upward space of soda ash is limited. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated within a range on Tuesday. The daily melting volume of glass remained stable. The market expected production cuts due to policies. The terminal demand was weak, and the profit decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and the risk appetite rebounded. The Fed's dovish stance was strengthened. The Comex copper inventory was at a high level, and the terminal demand faced the risk of weakening. [12] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of aluminum rose slightly on Tuesday, affected by the general rise in commodities and the sharp rise in alumina. The fundamentals of aluminum weakened, with inventory accumulation. The medium - term upward space is limited. [12] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants increased. The demand was weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [12] - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased slightly. The supply of ore was tight, but the reduction in refined tin production was lower than expected. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on Tuesday. The supply was affected by the suspension of a mine, and the market was bullish. The monthly supply - demand pattern changed from surplus to shortage. The trading margin and price limit were adjusted. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased on Tuesday. It was affected by the high price of polysilicon, cost factors, and market sentiment, and fluctuated strongly. [15][16] - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon rose on Tuesday. The increase in warehouse receipts reflected the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. The photovoltaic industry had expectations, and the price was supported by the spot price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [16] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market evaluated the impact of the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce and the potential impact of the US - Russia summit. The lack of major drivers led to a weak - oscillation pattern in oil prices. [17] - **Asphalt**: The cost of crude oil stabilized, and the asphalt price fluctuated slightly. The inventory removal was limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. [17][18] - **PX**: The PX price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA device had production cuts, and the PX device load was limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in the PTA device. [18] - **PTA**: The downstream filament planned to continue production cuts. The PTA basis increased slightly, and the demand was limited. The processing fee was low, and the supply pressure decreased. It is expected to balance supply and demand in August and oscillate within a range. [18] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increased slightly with the coal - based cost. The inventory pressure was still high, and the supply was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [19] - **Short Fiber**: The price of short fiber decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased. It is expected to be short - biased in the medium term. [20][21] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang fluctuated upward. The supply decreased, and the demand in the inland increased. The inventory in the port increased. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate. [21] - **PP**: The spot market of PP was sorted out narrowly. The cost - profit improved, the supply increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The price of the 09 contract may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is short - biased. [21] - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE increased. The supply pressure remained, and the demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - biased in the short term. [22] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 8 - month USDA soybean supply - demand adjustment was unexpectedly bullish. The expected harvest area of US soybeans decreased, the yield per acre increased, the export volume decreased, and the ending inventory decreased. The global ending inventory also decreased. [23] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans was expected to be stable, and the worry about supply contraction in the fourth quarter was relieved. The import of Canadian rapeseed may be blocked, and the domestic soybean meal substitution consumption is expected to increase. The price of domestic soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to rise further in the short term. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the port was high, and the supply contraction was expected. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation improved in the fourth quarter. The palm oil price was supported by factors such as inventory and import demand. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high, and attention should be paid to the supplementary increase of soybean oil. [24] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in Anhui and Xinjiang is expected to be sufficient in late August. The spot price is stable in August, and the basis is good, which has a certain stabilizing effect on the futures. [25][26] - **Pigs**: After consecutive price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The slaughter volume may decrease, and the supply pressure may be relieved after the Beginning of Autumn. The pig price may stabilize. [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The upcoming military parade is expected to catalyze the implementation of production restrictions, leading to significant changes in the supply side of the industry [8] - Short-term production cuts in Tangshan may impact at least 1.4% of Hebei's steel output, potentially driving up steel prices and profit margins [8] - The steel industry is anticipated to return to a state of supply-demand balance, paving the way for high-quality development due to both short-term production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the military parade will lead to stringent production restrictions, similar to those seen in previous years [8] - Historical data indicates that production cuts during past parades significantly affected steel output and prices [8] Production Impact - The production cut in Tangshan is projected to affect approximately 463 million tons of steel output during the specified period [8] - The average monthly steel output in Hebei from 2015 to 2024 is noted to be around 24.62 million tons [8] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the steel industry is on the verge of significant supply-side changes, which could stabilize profit margins and lead to a more favorable operating environment [8] - Long-term prospects include a focus on companies with stable dividend levels, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The multi - short ranking of commodities has changed significantly this week, with the divergence between energy and non - ferrous metals at the two ends increasing. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are non - ferrous metals and black metals, while the relatively weak ones are energy and agricultural products [2]. - The overall signals of different commodities vary. For methanol, the comprehensive signal turns neutral; for float glass, the comprehensive signal is neutral; for iron ore, the comprehensive signal turns bearish; for Shanghai lead, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overall Situation - The divergence within the non - ferrous metals sector has increased. The time - series momentum factor of the non - ferrous metals sector remains high, but the position factors of varieties such as zinc and aluminum have declined, and the cross - sectional momentum divergence has expanded. The time - series momentum of the energy sector has dropped significantly [2]. Methanol - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.01%, the demand factor increased by 0.15%, the inventory factor rose by 0.12%, the spread factor weakened by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral [4]. - Fundamental factors: The import arrival volume has increased significantly, making the supply side bearish; the capacity utilization rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises has continued to decrease, making the inventory side bullish; the methanol futures 9 - 1 spread and the import profit factor have both released bearish signals, making the spread side neutral [4]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.32%, the spread factor increased by 0.39%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The capacity utilization rate of float glass is flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction volume of commercial housing in third - tier cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased, with the inventory side remaining bullish but the strength weakening; the spot price of the domestic float glass market has continuously released bearish signals, making the spread side bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal and pipeline gas has declined, but the factor contribution is low, making the profit side neutral [7]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: Last week, each factor remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive signal turns bearish [7]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volumes at Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port have increased significantly, strengthening the bearish feedback on the supply side; the daily average consumption of steel enterprises has decreased, with the demand side turning to bearish feedback but the signal remaining neutral; the inventory of imported trade ore at ports has accumulated, strengthening the bearish feedback on the inventory side; the spot price center has risen, and the freight rate from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao has increased slightly, maintaining the bullish feedback on the spread side [7]. Shanghai Lead - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened and decreased by 0.23%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The price of SMM imported lead concentrates has gradually increased, making the supply side turn to bearish feedback; the LME inventory and SHFE futures warehouse receipts have both decreased, making the inventory side turn to bullish feedback; the average weekly near - far month spread of LME lead has expanded, making the spread side signal turn neutral [7].

虎年最后一个交易日，A股放量上扬，沪指创本轮反弹新高；港股强势拉升，恒生指数涨近2%再次突 破22000点，恒生科技指数大涨近3%。 具体来看，A股方面，两市股指盘中震荡拉升，沪指表现较为强势。截至收盘，沪指涨0.76%报3264.81 点，深成指涨0.57%报11980.62点，创业板指涨0.56%报2585.96点，上证50指数涨0.57%；两市合计成交 7491亿元，较昨日增加约620亿元；北向资金今日再扫货超90亿元，为连续13日加仓；本周累加仓达485 亿元，单周净买入额创历史次高；1月以来已累计净买入达1125亿元。 今日，有色、煤炭、钢铁、石油、电力等周期板块集体拉升，稀土、黄金概念表现亮眼，中国稀土、中 色股份、银泰黄金、恒源煤电等涨停；锂矿、锂电池、储能、风电、光伏等新能源板块亦走强，融捷股 份大涨超8%，阳光电源涨超7%最新市值1909亿元，隆基绿能涨超5%最新市值3575亿元；机器人概念爆 发，信邦智能、科远智慧、达意隆等涨停；三大运营商全线大涨，中国电信涨停，中国联通涨约7%， 中国移动盘中逼近历史高点；券商、期货板块回落，三连板的国盛金控跌停，5连板的弘业期货盘中触 及跌停；此外，中 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Overseas, the US will release inflation data, which may influence the Fed's decision on a September rate cut. The US dollar is strengthening, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's July manufacturing PMI decreased, economic growth slowed, the trade deficit declined, and net exports' contribution to the economy weakened. However, China has introduced childcare subsidies, and the Sino - US tariff truce has been extended, boosting domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Macro - finance - Macroeconomic situation: Overseas, the focus is on US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. Domestically, economic growth has slowed, but policies are expected to boost consumption, and tariff risks have decreased. Stock index: Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds: Cautious observation is advised. Commodities: Different sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious operations recommended [2]. 2. Stock Index - The domestic stock market has risen, driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and components. The economic growth has slowed, but policies and trade negotiations are expected to boost the market. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. 3. Precious Metals - Gold prices declined on Monday. The market is concerned about US inflation data and Fed rate - cut expectations. The long - term view on gold is bullish, and long - term positions can be considered if it retraces to support levels [5]. 4. Black Metals - **Steel**: Prices rebounded on Monday. The market is still dominated by macro logic, and prices are expected to be oscillate strongly in the short term. Demand is weak, and inventory is rising, but supply is also high due to high profits [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices strengthened on Monday but were weaker than other black metals. Demand may weaken further due to production restrictions, and supply has decreased. Short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Monday. Demand is fair, and production in some regions is expected to increase. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. 5. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high, suppressing prices. The upside is limited [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated on Monday. Supply may decrease due to policies, demand has slightly improved, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish stance is strengthening, and risk appetite has recovered. However, copper inventory is high, and terminal demand may weaken [11]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price rose slightly on Monday. Fundamentals have weakened, and short - term attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Tin**: Supply has slightly increased, and terminal demand is weak. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and the upside is restricted [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Multiple contracts hit the daily limit on Monday. Supply has decreased, and the market is bullish in the short term. Attention should be paid to the mine - type change of remaining mines [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost and sentiment factors [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract rose on Monday. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, with support from spot prices and expectations [15]. 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for details of the US - Russia summit. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as Russian oil supply is not expected to be interrupted [16]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low and stable, and asphalt prices have slightly recovered. The demand is weak, and the inventory is difficult to reduce, so it is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Prices have declined slightly. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate while waiting for PTA device changes [16]. - **PTA**: The basis has recovered slightly, and supply and demand are expected to balance in August. It is expected to oscillate within a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has increased, and supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in the short term. It is expected to oscillate, with limited upside [17]. - **Short - fiber**: Prices have declined. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has increased slightly. Medium - term short positions can be considered [18]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased, and demand varies by region. It is expected to oscillate, with limited spread movement [18]. - **PP**: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [18]. 8. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Trump's call for China to increase soybean purchases has led to a price increase. The crop condition is good, but new sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Canola Meal**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and spot prices are weak. Soybean meal is expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage opportunities can be considered. Rapeseed oil inventory has slightly decreased [20]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory have increased, and exports are weak. Domestic import profits are inverted, and inventory is increasing [20]. - **Corn**: Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and spot prices are stable. The basis is favorable, which stabilizes the futures price [21][22]. - **Pigs**: After price declines, farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn, and pig prices may stabilize [22].

从去年9月份低点2689点上涨以来，A股累计上涨接近千点。按照技术性牛市进行判断，股市已经突破了从低点上涨超过20%的位置，而且市场已经成功站 上了半年线与年线的位置，预示着A股市场已经处于牛市行情。 8月11日，上证指数创出了3656.85点的上涨新高，距离2024年最高点3674点不足20点的空间。虽然近期A股市场基本上保持在2万亿以下的日均成交额水平， 却不影响A股碎步上行的走势，从某种程度上反映出目前市场已经处于高度控盘的状态。 从严格的意义分析，当前A股市场尚未确立真正的牛市。主要原因，体现在当前A股市场还未有效突破2024年10月高点3674点以及2021年2月高点3731点。当 市场有效突破这两个阻力位置之后，才算真正意义上的牛市行情。 按照上述的运行规律，由银行股开启的牛市初期行情也许已经到了中后期的阶段。在现阶段内，周期股、低价股持续活跃，基本上符合牛市中期阶段的运行 特征。这一轮周期股、低价股炒作行情，将会演绎到哪个阶段，仍需要观察市场资金面的推动影响。 当前，A股市场指数越来越接近3674点，股市面临向上突破的重要阻力位置。从3674点至3731点，虽然只有60点左右的空间，但这个阻力区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and notes that the industrial producer's ex-factory prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% [3][23] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, as well as the oil and gas extraction industry, have shown a downward trend in fixed asset investment completion year-on-year since 2025 [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented energy-saving review and carbon emission evaluation measures, which aim to prevent disorderly capacity expansion and "involution" competition in the industry [22] Market Performance Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index experienced a decline of 0.54% during the period from July 28 to August 8, 2025 [3][11] - The top-performing industry indices during this period included SSH Gold Stocks (4.88%) and Subdivided Nonferrous Metals (0.83%) [3][10] - The report notes significant capital inflows into the infrastructure engineering sector, while the rare metals and nonferrous metals sectors saw substantial capital outflows [11] Key Industry Dynamics - In the chemical sector, the report indicates that major raw material purchase price indices reached a new high of 51.5% in July, reflecting a 2.1 percentage point increase from June [23] - The coal sector is under scrutiny, with the National Energy Administration planning to conduct production inspections in key coal-producing provinces to ensure stable supply [3][28] - The report suggests monitoring the Chemical ETF (159870.SZ) and Coal ETF (515220.SH) for potential investment opportunities [3][12] Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical announced the resumption of production at its Fujian Industrial Park, which had been under maintenance since June 5, 2025 [25] - Salt Lake Co. disclosed plans for share buybacks to enhance investor confidence, with a recent increase in shareholding by its controlling shareholder [26] - Juhua Co. projected a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with an expected growth of 146% to 166% year-on-year [27]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The aluminum production capacity utilization rate reached a new high of 98.4% in July, the highest level since 2012 [3] - The steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacity [5] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in key metrics, with significant drops in new construction and sales areas [23][76] Summary by Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a contraction in liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 46.09 in July, down 6.16% month-on-month [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Key enterprises' average daily crude steel output hit a yearly low in late July [2] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points [42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for real estate was -20% for the first half of 2025 [23] Industrial Products Chain - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum prices increasing by 1.26%, 0.33%, and 0.68% respectively [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for China was 47.10% in July, down 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was 1200.73, down 2.56% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.23%, with the engineering machinery sector performing best at +6.21% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market was 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, supported by government policies [5] - Caution is advised regarding potential volatility in futures prices, particularly in coking coal [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares are expected to maintain a high-risk preference, and investment opportunities in innovative drugs, artificial intelligence, and rare earths are favored [12]. - Bond market yields may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [12]. - In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, gold has the possibility to break through its previous high [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 3.87%, 2.43%, and 1.35% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 4.25%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 1.43% [2]. - A-shares generally rose, with the Wind All A Index rising 1.94%. Most major indices showed positive changes, and most sectors and industries also rose, with non-ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense and military industry leading the gains [3][4]. Bond Market Performance - Interest rate bond prices rose, and the yield curve steepened. The 10-year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.19%, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.68 BP [5]. - Bond market leverage increased, and the central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [6][8]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward as a whole [9]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.43%. Gold prices rose, with London gold spot prices rising 1.49% and COMEX gold futures prices rising 1.29% [10]. Fed's Stance - The Fed's regulatory vice-chairman's remarks were more dovish than the market's mainstream expectations, and the market's mainstream expectation for the number of Fed rate cuts in 2025 remains 2 times [11].

国外 1. 高盛：仍认为美国不会对黄金征收关税，维持此前价格预测 高盛：继续假设黄金不被征收关税，因为自4月10%的对等关税生效以来，尚未出现任何实际征收的迹 象。维持此前预测，即伦敦现货黄金将在2025年底达到每3700美元/盎司，并在2026年年中升至4000美 元/盎司。 2. 高盛：美国消费者或将承担67%的关税成本 高盛的研究显示，迄今为止，美国企业已经承担了特朗普关税的大部分成本，但负担将越来越多地转移 到消费者身上。包括Jan Hatzius在内的高盛分析师在一份报告中写道，截至6月份，美国消费者已承担 了约22%的关税成本，但如果最近的关税遵循之前的征税模式，他们的份额将上升到67%。到目前为 止，美国企业已经承担了约64%的关税成本，但他们的份额未来将降至10%以下。截至6月份，外国出 口商已承担了约14%的关税成本，未来其份额可能上升至25%。总而言之，今年剩余时间美国通胀率将 上升。高盛预测，基于剔除关税影响后的潜在通胀率为2.4%的假设，12月份核心个人消费支出（PCE） 同比增速将达到3.2%。 3. 小摩：特朗普任命米兰为美联储理事将令收益率曲线趋陡 摩根大通策略师表示，如果特朗普 ...