1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience throughout the day, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market increased. For stock index futures, A - shares are more resistant to decline than some Asian - Pacific markets, with potential reasons including lower energy dependence and weaker linkage with the US stock market. It's advisable to buy on dips but not over - estimate the upside, and better opportunities may come after the situation becomes clear in April [1][5]. - For stock index options, the market turnover of each variety is rising, the option sentiment indicator (PCR) is falling, and the implied volatility is strong. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense [2][5]. - For treasury bond futures, the main contracts rose, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The market is trading the expectation of the 30Y treasury bond active - period coupon - cutting. The central bank's large - scale net liquidity injection supports the short - end of the bond market, and the "US - Iran conflict" boosts risk - aversion sentiment. The long - end of the bond market may be volatile, with only cautious long - making opportunities. Strategies such as ultra - long - end reverse arbitrage and 30Y - 10Y spread convergence are recommended [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the market opened lower and then recovered. The All - A index rose slightly, and the trading volume was slightly over 1.9 trillion. Military, metal, and textile sectors led the gains. The expectation of US - Iran peace talks was the catalyst for market stabilization [1][5]. - **Reasons for Resistance**: China's lower energy dependence than Japan and South Korea may lead to the transfer of Asia - Pacific funds to A - shares. Also, the linkage between A - shares and the US stock market is weaker than that of Japanese and South Korean stocks, making the callback of A - shares more controllable [1][5]. - **Disadvantages**: The trading volume is still low, the market shows a dumbbell - shaped leading pattern (defensive style), and the high oil price indicates that the market has not priced in the rapid geopolitical easing [1][5]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: A - shares have certain anti - decline properties. It is advisable to buy on dips, but the upside should not be over - estimated. A better time to increase positions may come after the situation is clear in April. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and increase the position of IM to a medium level [1][5]. (2) Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of each option variety is rising, the option sentiment indicator (PCR) is falling, and the daily implied volatility is strong, indicating a strong hedging atmosphere. The current option market is trading on volatility rather than just direction [2][5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Continue to hold call options for defense to protect the overall portfolio from systematic risks [2][5]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The market started to trade the expectation of the 30Y treasury bond active - period coupon - cutting, with the 25T6 of 30Y treasury bonds performing weakly [2][6]. - **Supporting Factors**: The central bank's large - scale net liquidity injection supports the short - end of the bond market. The "US - Iran conflict" has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the bond market has become less sensitive to high oil prices. When the 30Y treasury bond interest rate rises to around 2.3%, the buying power of banks and other institutional investors has increased, supporting the long - end [2][6]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: In the short term, the long - end of the bond market may be volatile, with only cautious long - making opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to ultra - long - end reverse arbitrage strategies and 30Y - 10Y spread convergence strategies. The trend strategy is to maintain a volatile view, the hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, the basis strategy is to look for ultra - long - end reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the curve strategy is to focus on 30Y - 10Y spread convergence opportunities [2][6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of range - bound consolidation. The short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, the intraday is bullish, and the view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures closed up in an oscillating manner yesterday. The domestic macro - economic indicators have strong resilience, the policy side tends to be structurally loose, and the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so the short - term upward space of Treasury bonds is limited. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, future monetary policy is loose, and short - term geopolitical risks are highly uncertain, so the safe - haven demand strongly supports Treasury bonds. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in range - bound consolidation in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the content. The report mainly provides daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on March 31, 2026. 3. Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - The report shows the basis and spread data of thermal coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026. The basis values were -50.4, -45.4, -41.4, -40.4, -40.4 respectively, and the spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were all 0.0 during this period [2]. II. Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: It includes basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from March 24 to March 30, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 30 was 540.36, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1641 [8]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 30 was -190 [10]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was -800 [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 30 was 3360 [11]. III. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on March 30 was 111.0 [20][21]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was -44.0 [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are provided. For example, the rebar to iron ore ratio on March 30 was 3.85 [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on March 30 was -380 [30]. - **London Market**: The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (82.55) [33]. V. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans on March 30 was 6 [40]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans was -54 [40]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The ratios and spreads of various agricultural products from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are presented. For example, the ratio of soybeans to corn on March 30 was 1.94 [40]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 24 to March 30, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 30 was 77.95 [51]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month to current - month spread of CSI 300 was -19.8 [51].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No report on industry investment rating is available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical conflict remains the core focus of the market. Iran refuses to participate in the peace - talks organized by Pakistan and plans to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US has a tough stance, threatening to attack Iran's energy facilities. The entry of the Houthi armed forces poses a threat to the shipping safety of the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait, increasing the global energy supply risk. Powell's speech on Monday was dovish, indicating that the current policy is somewhat restrictive and more attention is paid to the downward employment market. The short - term pressure on precious metals has been temporarily alleviated, but long - term inflation expectations may rise. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 950 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Market Quotes and Information Gold - Shanghai gold rose 1.73% to 1009.44 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold rose 0.12% to 4529.90 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 100.26 [2] - In terms of detailed gold data, for COMEX gold, the closing price of the active contract increased by 2.58% to 4489.70 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume decreased by 69.57% to 7.27 million lots, the position decreased by 1.81% to 40.39 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.60% to 986 tons. For LBMA gold, the closing price increased by 1.07% to 4504.15 US dollars/ounce. For SHFE gold, the closing price of the active contract increased by 1.62% to 1014.88 yuan/gram, the trading volume increased by 14.93% to 50.55 million lots, the position increased by 3.68% to 28.38 million lots, the inventory remained unchanged at 106.64 tons, and the settled funds increased by 5.36% to 460.81 billion yuan. For AuT + D, the trading volume increased by 11.58% to 91.15 tons, and the position increased by 0.95% to 241.75 tons [6] Silver - Shanghai silver rose 1.88% to 17763.00 yuan/kilogram, and COMEX silver fell 1.42% to 68.81 US dollars/ounce [2] - In terms of detailed silver data, for COMEX silver, the closing price of the active contract increased by 2.41% to 69.77 US dollars/ounce, the position decreased by 1.39% to 11.32 million lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.08% to 10211 tons. For LBMA silver, the closing price increased by 0.75% to 67.80 US dollars/ounce. For SHFE silver, the closing price of the active contract increased by 1.25% to 17707.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume increased by 21.82% to 159.25 million lots, the position increased by 0.53% to 45.51 million lots, the inventory increased by 0.71% to 374.43 tons, and the settled funds increased by 1.78% to 217.57 billion yuan. For AgT + D, the trading volume increased by 0.39% to 294.24 tons, and the position decreased by 0.34% to 2839.936 tons [6] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Information Geopolitical - Iran has received information from the US seeking dialogue through mediators but believes the US requirements are too harsh and unreasonable, and will not participate in the war - related meetings led by Pakistan. Iran's parliament has passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with a single oil tanker possibly paying up to 2 million US dollars. The new navigation control plan also prohibits the passage of ships related to the US, Israel, and countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran, and the tolls must be settled in Iranian Rial. The US has threatened to destroy all power - generation facilities, oil wells, and Kharg Island in Iran if the Strait of Hormuz fails to resume navigation immediately [3] Policy - Powell said that the current Fed policy rate remains somewhat restrictive, enabling the Fed to better respond to subsequent economic developments. There are no signs that the Fed's previous bond - buying actions have led to inflation, and the large - scale balance sheet has not shown the significant downward risks widely feared by the market. Regarding the impact of the Middle East situation on oil prices, the Fed will remain on the sidelines for now as its policy tools are ineffective against supply - side shocks, but will closely monitor inflation expectations, which are currently stable. Additionally, both supply and demand in the labor market have slowed, and the downward risk of employment has increased [2] Group 5: ETF Holdings Information Gold ETFs - For SPDR in the US, the closing price decreased by 0.03% to 414.58 US dollars, the holding volume decreased by 0.33% to 1046.13 tons, the settled funds increased by 0.22% to 1522.79 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 21.66% to 1298.93 million shares. For iShare in the US, the holding volume increased by 0.07% to 475.02 tons. For GBS, PHAU, and GOLD in the UK, and SGBS in Switzerland, the holding volumes remained unchanged [66] Silver ETFs - For SLV in the US, the closing price increased by 0.13% to 63.52 US dollars, the holding volume decreased by 0.79% to 15288.36 tons, the settled funds increased by 3.54% to 347.60 billion US dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 44.09% to 2924.13 million shares. For ETPMAG in Australia, PSLV, and CEF in Canada, the holding volumes remained unchanged [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran continues to impact the global market, leading to increased inflation expectations and affecting the price trends of various assets. The market is concerned about the potential for stagflation and recession, with different sectors showing varying degrees of response [4][8][11]. - The economic data in China from January to February showed improvement, but the sustainability of the economic recovery remains to be seen, and domestic demand still requires support from stable household income and policies [8]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some industries are affected by supply shortages, while others are influenced by weak demand or geopolitical factors [14][16][32]. 3. Summary by Catalog Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The US is reported to be discussing sending troops into Iran to extract about 450 kg of highly enriched uranium; Zhongke Aerospace's Lijian - 2 Yaoyi launch vehicle had a successful maiden flight; Kweichow Moutai adjusted the sales contract price and retail price of Feitian 53%vol 500ml liquor; Zhongji Xuchuang's revenue and net profit in 2025 increased significantly year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy View**: The conflict between the US and Iran has disturbed global risk appetite, increasing inflation expectations and causing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations to fade. Traders' expectations of an interest - rate hike have exceeded 50%. In China, the narrowing of PPI and strong profitability of industrial enterprises at the beginning of the year are noted. Attention should be paid to the change in the war situation and risk control [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different degrees of change. The US President said that Iran had agreed to "most of the content" of the "15 - point cease - fire plan". The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on anti - unfair competition [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2695 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 80 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due on the same day, the net investment was 2615 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in the first two months improved, but the sustainability of the economic recovery needs to be observed. The geopolitical conflict in Iran has led to concerns about imported inflation, and the inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold rose slightly and COMEX silver fell. Powell made dovish remarks, and Iran's stance on the negotiation and the new regulations on the Strait of Hormuz increased the risk of global energy supply [9][10]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical conflicts remain the focus of the market. Powell's dovish remarks have temporarily eased the pressure on precious metals, but long - term inflation expectations still need to be watched. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of Shanghai gold at 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 15000 - 20500 yuan/kilogram [11]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: The copper price rose first and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic social inventory decreased. The spot premium in different regions changed, and the import was profitable [13]. - **Strategy View**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suppressed the copper price, but the tight supply of copper ore and the reduction of scrap copper substitution support the price. The copper price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [14]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Concerns about supply contraction in the Middle East pushed up the aluminum price. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed, and the LME inventory decreased [15]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic downstream demand is improving. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Zinc - **Market News**: The zinc price rose slightly. The inventory and basis of zinc in different markets changed, and the import was at a loss [17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized in the short term, but the follow - up purchase may not be sustainable. The zinc price is in a downward trend and may decline further after wide - range consolidation [18]. Lead - **Market News**: The lead price fell slightly. The inventory and basis of lead in different markets changed, and the import was profitable [19]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term support at the spot end is obtained, but the high Shanghai - London ratio and the pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector may lead to a further decline in the lead price [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose slightly. The spot premium and cost of nickel changed slightly [20]. - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to weaken, but in the medium term, the bottom support is strong. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price rose. The production and demand of tin changed, and the inventory decreased significantly [21]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. The tin price is expected to be weak, with the reference operating range of domestic main contracts at 320000 - 400000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 41000 - 50000 US dollars/ton [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The futures price and spot premium changed [23]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply shortage of lithium salt has eased, but the trend of inventory reduction needs to be observed. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to be strong. The reference operating range of the 2605 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 162000 - 180000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The basis, overseas price, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to rise in the short term, but the long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range of the main contract AO2605 at 2850 - 3050 yuan/ton [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless - steel price fell slightly. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of stainless steel is stable, and the terminal consumption exceeds expectations. The market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the reference range of the main contract at 14150 - 14600 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory changed [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has recovered, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts and positions changed [31]. - **Strategy View**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The demand has improved marginally, and the inventory has been gradually reduced, but there is no trend - driving force. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron - ore price rose slightly. The positions and basis changed [33]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment has decreased, and the demand for iron ore is expected to increase. The port inventory has decreased. The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [34]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: The coking - coal price fell slightly, and the coke price rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [35]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector may be supported by the withdrawal of funds. The short - term supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or stay on the sidelines, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and oil - price changes [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: The glass price fell slightly. The spot price and inventory changed [38][39]. - **Strategy View**: The glass market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern. The supply contraction and cost support may form a certain bottom, but the terminal demand needs to be observed [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: The soda - ash price fell. The spot price and inventory changed [40]. - **Strategy View**: The soda - ash market is in a game between short - term supply contraction and weak demand, and the price is in a narrow - range consolidation [40]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose slightly. The spot price and basis changed [41]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. Attention should be paid to the cost of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: The industrial - silicon price fell. The positions and basis changed [45]. - **Strategy View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [46]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: The polysilicon price rose. The positions and basis changed [47]. - **Strategy View**: The polysilicon market is in a negative - feedback adjustment state, and the price is expected to continue to find the bottom in a volatile manner [48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market News**: The price of butadiene is strong, and the market of natural rubber has different views on the rise and fall [50][51]. - **Strategy View**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly, take profits on butadiene rubber call options, and hold the hedging position of buying NR and shorting RU2609 [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The price of crude oil and related refined products rose [55]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to configure short - term short positions in crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - WTI cross - regional spread [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price rose, and the MTO profit decreased [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and widen the MTO profit at low prices [58]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell urea. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term demand support [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The cost, supply, and demand changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the large geopolitical influence on the market [62]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell. The cost, supply, and demand changed [63]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term fundamental supply shock is not fully reflected. The price is expected to rise before the Iranian issue is resolved, but attention should be paid to risks [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene - glycol price rose. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [65][67]. - **Strategy View**: The industry load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [68]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell. The load, inventory, and processing fee changed [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The p - xylene price fell. The load, inventory, and valuation changed [70]. - **Strategy View**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [71][72]. Polyethylene PE - **Market News**: The PE price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [73]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74]. Polypropylene PP - **Market News**: The PP price fell. The spot price, basis, and inventory changed [75]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost end to the production mismatch [76]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The slaughter volume was average [78]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - side improvement is limited. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds and pay attention to profit - taking [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply was normal, and the market sales slowed down [80]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is sufficient, but the small - egg supply is tight. It is recommended to hold short positions in the far - end contracts and short - sell on rebounds in the near - end contracts [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Trump plans to visit China, and the US soybean export and domestic soybean arrival and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy View**: The price of protein meal fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Indonesia plans to increase the palm - oil blending ratio in biodiesel, and the production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in different regions changed [85]. - **Strategy View**: The price of oils and fats is expected to rise in the medium term due to the influence of the US - Iran event [86]. Sugar - **Market News**: The production, export, and import data of sugar in different regions changed. The proportion of sugarcane used for ethanol production in Brazil increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the unstable international oil price [88]. Cotton - **Market News**: Trump plans to visit China, and the import, export, and production data of cotton changed [89]. - **Strategy View**: Trump's visit is short - term positive for US cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips, but attention should be paid to the risk of the US - Iran event [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation between the US and Iran, with risk aversion increasing, and the prices of various assets showing different trends [1][2][6]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different commodities vary, with some facing supply disruptions and others having changes in demand [4][35][42]. - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is in a wait - and - see state, and the impact of the Iran - US conflict on inflation needs further observation [15][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chairman Powell said there is a contradiction between the Fed's two goals, and short - term monetary policy is in a wait - and - see stage [11]. - Trump threatened to attack Iran, and the gold price oscillated and rose. The decline in US bond yields reduced the pressure on precious metals. Gold prices continued the oscillatory bottom - building trend [12]. - Investment advice: The short - term trends of gold and silver prices are oscillatory, and the rebound strength is weak [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Rubio said the US may re - evaluate its relationship with NATO after the Iran war, and Powell said the Fed can wait and see the impact of the war on inflation [14][15]. - Trump pressured Iran to reopen the Strait, market risk aversion weakened, and the US dollar index rebounded in the short term [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will maintain a high level in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell said that energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy usually ignores such shocks, but inflation expectations need to be closely monitored [18]. - Trump hoped to reach an agreement with Iran before April 6, but Iran denied the negotiation. Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The short - term probability of reaching an agreement is low, and US stocks opened higher and closed lower [19][20]. - Investment advice: It is expected that US stocks will operate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. A - shares oscillated and strengthened, but the signal of the stock index turning from a rebound to a reversal has not appeared [22]. - Investment advice: It is still recommended to hold a low - position to avoid risks [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 269.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 261.5 billion yuan on the day [24]. - The market expectations are chaotic, and the capital and institutional behavior dominate the market. Treasury bond futures strengthened, but the cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [24][25]. - Investment advice: The cost - performance of chasing the rise is low [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's iron ore port operations in Western Australia have fully recovered, but the iron ore price continued to oscillate weakly. The long - term price decline pressure increased, and the short - term spot is expected to be weakly stable [27][28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price will continue to oscillate weakly, and the long - term price decline pressure will increase [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market decreased. The overall coking coal supply is slightly reduced, but the national output is still at a high level. The inventory is decreasing, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [29]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the futures price is supported by energy issues, but the overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The transportation department completed 355.8 billion yuan of transportation fixed - asset investment from January to February. Mexico made an anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese hot - rolled steel [30][31]. - The steel price oscillated after opening higher. The supply - demand contradiction of finished products is not prominent, and it is difficult to form a smooth trend. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [31]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to adopt an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East and energy prices [32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean inventory of major oil mills decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts decreased. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is behind last year [32][33][34]. - The market expects the US soybean quarterly inventory to reach 2.063 billion bushels. It is recommended to pay attention to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price will oscillate for the time being, and attention should be paid to the USDA report and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans [35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Ukraine's grain exports decreased by 20.4% year - on - year. The domestic supply side has changes in sales progress, imports, and inventory. The downstream demand has support, and the policy provides bottom - line support [36][37]. - Investment advice: The corn price will maintain a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Indonesian president said the country will promote the B50 biodiesel project this year, which strengthened the possibility of its implementation and the palm oil price rose [39]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the palm oil price will be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts [40]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market supervision department will prevent and control "involution - style" competition in key industries. EVE Energy's subsidiary plans to invest 6 billion yuan to build a 60GWh power energy - storage battery project [40][41]. - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, the spot trading weakened, the supply side was tight, and the demand side focused on power demand [41][42]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices, but it is difficult for the spot to drive the futures price to break through the previous high before the supply disruption is realized [43]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium oscillated upward, mainly following the trend of precious metals. The supply side has risks, and the demand side has support [44]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and pay attention to the risk - free arbitrage opportunity in the month - spread [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The downstream consumption will face the off - season, and the lead price may test the support level again [46][47]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at a low price on the long - short side and wait and see on the arbitrage side [47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, the zinc price oscillated upward, and the LME structure changed. The market liquidity has problems, and it is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and the previous long positions are recommended to take profits at high prices. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Glomar and Cobalt Blue plan to build a deep - sea mineral processing plant, and the Canadian government tries to save a copper smelter. Congo (Kinshasa) and China signed a mineral cooperation agreement [50][51][52]. - The copper price is suppressed by the risk of war escalation and liquidity panic. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the overseas demand is weak [52]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin price had a discount, and the domestic and overseas inventories changed. The supply side has a tight pattern in the short term, and the demand side is weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: The tin price will oscillate widely. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply situation of major producing areas and the change of macro trends [56]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran's parliament approved a bill to charge tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price oscillated strongly, and the negotiation between the US and Iran has large differences [57][58]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG port inventory increased slightly. The domestic and foreign LPG prices oscillated, and the market atmosphere was good. The conflict between the US and Iran may intensify [59]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics between the US and Iran [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea futures price rebounded, the inventory decreased, and the demand was supported, but the export policy may restrict the upward space [60][61]. - Investment advice: The near - term urea futures price will continue to oscillate in a range [62]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene were strong. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is expected to be realized [63][64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to go long at low prices in general [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery and social inventories increased. The cost side supported the price, but the terminal demand has not fully started, and the inventory digestion is slow [66]. - Investment advice: The geopolitical risk continues, and the downside support is strong [67]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Hapag - Lloyd's 2025 revenue was about $21.1 billion, and it issued a cautious warning for 2026. The Middle East geopolitical situation has an impact on the container freight rate, with the far - month contracts rising and the near - month contracts oscillating weakly [68][69]. - Investment advice: The near - month contracts return to the spot logic, and the far - month contracts are easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to maintain an oscillatory thinking and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [70].

Report Investment Rating - The operation rating of CITIC Five-Style - Stable is ★☆☆ [4] Core Viewpoints - In the week ending March 27, 2026, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.76%, 0.06%, and -0.25% respectively. The convertible bond strategy in the public fund market performed well with a weekly return rate of 0.60%, while the equity long strategy index continued to decline, and most neutral strategy products rose. The pure - bond strategy index closed up, and the medium - to - long - term return was stronger than that of short - term pure bonds. Among commodities, the energy and chemical ETF rose 3.35%, the precious metal ETF net value continued to decline, and the non - ferrous metal ETF's return rebounded slightly [3] - Among the CITIC Five - Style indices, the stable and cyclical styles closed up, while the other styles closed down. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the cyclical style has increased significantly recently, and the relative strength momentum of the consumption style has declined marginally. In the public fund pool, the growth and financial style fund indices outperformed the benchmark, with weekly excess return rates of 0.89% and 0.64% respectively. The market's bias towards the growth and financial styles has increased. This week, the market congestion index rebounded, and the current financial style congestion is in the medium - to - high percentile range of the past year [3] - Among the Barra factors, the short - term momentum factor performed strongly in the past week, the return of the profitability factor adjusted, the winning rate of the liquidity factor continued to decline, and the valuation and scale factors rebounded marginally. This week, the cross - section rotation speed of factors increased month - on - month and is currently in the medium percentile range of the past year [3] - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style rebounded marginally this week, and the current signal continues to be the stable style. The return rate of the style timing strategy last week was 0.56%, and the excess return rate compared with the benchmark balanced allocation was 1.13% [3] Summary by Directory Fund Market Review - **Market Index Returns**: The weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.76%, 0.06%, and -0.25% respectively [3] - **Public Fund Strategy Performance**: The convertible bond strategy had a weekly return of 0.60%. The equity long strategy index continued to decline, most neutral strategy products rose. The pure - bond strategy index closed up, with medium - to - long - term returns stronger than short - term pure bonds. The energy and chemical ETF rose 3.35%, the precious metal ETF net value continued to decline, and the non - ferrous metal ETF's return rebounded slightly [3] CITIC Five - Style Analysis - **Style Index Performance**: The stable and cyclical styles closed up, while the other styles closed down. The relative strength of the cyclical style increased significantly, and the relative strength momentum of the consumption style declined marginally [3] - **Fund Pool Performance**: The growth and financial style fund indices outperformed the benchmark, with weekly excess return rates of 0.89% and 0.64% respectively. The market's preference for growth and financial styles increased [3] - **Style Congestion**: The market congestion index rebounded, and the current financial style congestion is in the medium - to - high percentile range of the past year [3] Barra Factor Analysis - **Factor Performance**: The short - term momentum factor performed strongly, the return of the profitability factor adjusted, the winning rate of the liquidity factor continued to decline, and the valuation and scale factors rebounded marginally [3] - **Factor Rotation Speed**: The cross - section rotation speed of factors increased month - on - month and is currently in the medium percentile range of the past year [3] Style Timing Model - The financial style rebounded marginally this week, and the current signal continues to be the stable style. The return rate of the style timing strategy last week was 0.56%, and the excess return rate compared with the benchmark balanced allocation was 1.13% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The South American soybean harvest is progressing well, with Brazil's harvest nearing completion and Argentina's crop quality improving after rainfall, putting pressure on the market. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and spot buyers are advised to actively set prices at lower prices, while paying attention to the release of the estimated planting area of US soybeans at the end of the month [1]. - The US biofuel policy provides medium - to long - term support for soybean oil, but the positive effect is weakened due to market expectations and postponed import restrictions. Indonesia's plan to increase the palm - diesel blend ratio to 50% has led to a sharp rise in palm oil prices, but the implementation still takes time, and crude oil prices are the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of March 27, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was 72.99%, up from 65.79% a week ago, lower than 81.31% in the same period last year but close to the five - year average of 73.95%. Rainfall in some parts of Brazil is expected to decrease in the coming days, which will help speed up field operations [1]. - As of the week of March 25, 2026, the rainfall in Argentina's agricultural areas helped improve the soybean crop rating. Currently, 82% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, up from 78% a week ago and 76% in the same period last year. 85% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, higher than 79% a week ago and the same as last year. The improvement is mainly due to the better condition of late - sown soybeans. For early - sown soybeans, 41% of the area has entered the maturity stage, and more than 60% in the two major core production areas have entered the maturity stage, and the harvest will be fully carried out in the next few days [1]. Oils - The US Environmental Protection Agency has issued a new rule, increasing the renewable fuel obligation targets in 2026 and 2027 by more than 60% compared to 2025, and raising the proportion of the fuel quota allocated to large refineries from small refineries' exemptions from 50% to 70%, which provides medium - to long - term support for soybean oil, but the positive effect is weakened [2]. - Indonesia's President announced that the palm - diesel blend ratio will be increased from 40% to 50% this year to deal with the energy crisis caused by the Middle East situation, leading to a sharp rise in palm oil and Malaysian palm oil prices. However, the implementation of Indonesia's B50 still takes time, and crude oil prices are the main factor affecting the implementation schedule [2].

Group 1: Market Views 1. Coking Coal Fundamentals - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 89.16% (+0.57%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 78.6 tons (-1.21). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 34.78% (+1.77%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 25.89 tons (+1.58). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high, and the overall supply increased [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons (+2.94), and the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (+1.25%). The available days of coking coal for 247 steel mills were 12.44 days (+0.14), and those for 230 independent coking plants were 12.95 days (+0.4). The procurement sentiment of downstream coking and steel plants improved [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 222.83 tons (-31.26), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1047.54 tons (+42.51), the steel mill inventory was 782.41 tons (+8.48), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 349.18 tons (+16.67), and the inventory at major ports was 269.44 tons (+4.49). The inventory structure was being transferred to the middle and downstream [3]. - Summary: Last week, the coking coal market supply remained high. Demand from downstream coking and steel plants increased. The inventory structure improved. In the short term, it will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation [3]. 2. Coke Fundamentals - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 21 yuan/ton (-17). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 74.86% (+0.55%), and the daily average output was 64.76 tons (+0.52). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.28 tons (-0.03). The overall supply was relatively stable [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 231.09 tons (+2.94), and the blast furnace operating rate was 81.03% (+1.25). The available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 12.75 days (+0.01). The rigid demand support was strong [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 90.05 tons (-4.18), the inventory at major ports was 216.11 tons (+16.98), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 691.67 tons (+3.49). The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [4]. - Summary: The supply and demand of coke both increased, and the market sentiment was positive. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate slightly stronger [4]. Group 2: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report includes data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI [6][10][14][18] Group 3: Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - It includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices nationwide, the basis tracking of coking coal contracts, the daily average output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of molten iron and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills, the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicles of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port [21][26][33][38][40][42][45][48][54][57] Group 4: Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - It includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the spot price adjustment schedule of coke, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis of coke contracts, the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the inventory of coke at ports, and the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills [61][63][65][69][76][79][82][87][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In Q2 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand recovery, and risk mitigation. The gap between Europe and the US will narrow, and emerging markets will maintain relatively high growth. The Middle - East geopolitical conflicts will cause oil price fluctuations, and inflation expectations will rise. The core variables for the market are the rhythm of monetary policy, inflation path, and geopolitical evolution. The global economy is seeking re - balance in a weak recovery, with more resilience than downside risks [6][106]. - Domestic crude oil futures will enter a five - fold game stage of geopolitical premium convergence, supply restoration, demand peak - season verification, inventory re - balance, and recession expectation suppression. The extreme market in Q1 will end, and the price will return to a pattern dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, with a high - level, volatile, and slightly downward trend. The core driver will shift from "supply panic" to "real - world constraints and rhythm game" [6]. - The supply side will change from "extremely tight" in Q1 to "marginally loose" in Q2. The demand side will enter a stage of peak - season recovery, structural differentiation, and limited resilience. The inventory side will shift from a low - level tight balance to slow inventory accumulation, which will be the core constraint on the market [6]. - Overall, in Q2, the supply - demand of domestic crude oil futures will be in a loose balance pattern of supply restoration, moderate demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak macro - environment. The price of the SC main contract may maintain a high - level wide - range volatile trend, and it is difficult to reproduce the unilateral sharp rise in Q1. The main tone is high - level volatility with a slowly declining center of gravity [6]. Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Domestic and International Crude Oil Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic crude oil futures (SC) had an epic market with initial stable consolidation, an increase in February, an extreme pulse in March, and a high - level decline at the end of the quarter. The main contract started at about 450 yuan per barrel at the beginning of the year and soared to 838 yuan per barrel in mid - March due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of over 85% [11]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around five main lines: geopolitical supply shock, OPEC+ production cuts, domestic demand pattern, low inventory, and macro and capital factors [12]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations Fall, Europe and the US Economies Continue to Diverge - Since 2026, the macro - economies of Europe and the US have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy shows strong resilience, with stable consumption and investment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery, constrained by insufficient domestic demand and structural bottlenecks [17]. - The US economy runs smoothly, with features of "steady growth, controllable inflation, and employment resilience". The eurozone's economic growth pressure is greater than that of the US. In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of narrowing divergence and mild recovery [18][20]. China's Economy Develops Steadily and Well in January - February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new driving forces grew rapidly, employment and prices were generally stable [36]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy will continue the stable and upward trend, and the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% for the whole year is more likely to be achieved [38]. OPEC+ Resumes Production Increase Measures, Supply Tightness Expectations Remain - In January - February 2026, the Middle - East crude oil market was characterized by policy - stabilized production, tight supply, and rising geopolitical tensions. OPEC+ continued to control production in Q1, and the production of core Middle - East countries was stable [54]. - In March, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict deteriorated sharply, and the supply pattern changed from "policy - controlled production" to "physical supply interruption". In Q2, OPEC+'s small - scale production increase will be implemented, but it is difficult to offset the supply interruption. Oil prices will remain high and volatile [56]. Global Crude Oil Demand in Q2 is Relatively Resilient - In March 2026, global crude oil demand was about 104.5 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The demand growth was led by non - OECD countries, especially Asian emerging markets [75]. - In Q2, global crude oil demand will enter the peak - season growth stage, with a total demand of 105 - 106 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% - 2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% - 1.5% [77]. The US - Iran War Persists, Middle - East Geopolitical Turmoil Intensifies - In March 2026, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict escalated to a high - intensity confrontation. It affected global security, trade, and financial markets, and led to a sharp rise in oil prices [80]. - In late March to early April, the Middle - East situation will remain tense, with high - frequency military attacks, uncertain shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a low probability of a short - term cease - fire [84]. China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Significantly in January - February 2026 - In January - February 2026, China's domestic crude oil market showed stable domestic supply, high - growth imports, and high - level processing. The domestic crude oil futures showed a high - level volatile and premium - converging trend [91]. - In Q2, global crude oil consumption will enter the traditional off - season. With global supply being loose and geopolitical premium receding, domestic crude oil prices are likely to return to a "fundamentals - dominated, volatile and slightly downward" trend [94]. International Crude Oil Non - Commercial Net Long Positions Rise Significantly in Q1 2026 - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil futures were 233,620 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 168,722 contracts, or 259.98%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures were 315,830 contracts, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 216,735 contracts, or 218.71% [101].