热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来自公众号：懒人财知道 关注免费领取全球研报特权 白银又下跌，真相曝光：不是"IRS严打"，而是一场被反复收割的恐慌谣言 近期，白银市场出现罕见剧烈波动，盘中一度暴跌，引发大量恐慌性抛售。而在交易社区，一则"2月15 日美国国税局（IRS）将对白银持有者展开严厉打击"的消息迅速扩散，被不少投资者视为"最后逃命信 号"。 白银持有合法性变化 强制登记 针对白银投资者的专项清查 换句话说，这是一个"文书截止日被包装成政策打击日"的典型案例。 但真相，恰恰相反。 所谓"2月15日严打"，其实是一个被炒了很多年的旧谣言 多家美国权威贵金属交易商与税务专业人士已明确澄清： 2月15日并不是任何针对白银的新政策节点，更不是执法行动的开始。 这个日期的来源，仅仅是美国国税局长期存在的一个行政申报时间窗口，主要涉及部分信息申报表（如 1099-B），而且在2026年实际截止日是2月17日，只是因为周末顺延。 它不涉及： 三个被刻意混淆的概念，制造了市场恐慌 这轮谣言之所以杀伤力极强，是因为很多人把三套完全不同的税务体系混为一谈： 第一，资本利得税 卖出白银 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hongye Futures (03678.HK) has received a notification from its shareholder Jiangsu Hongsu Industrial Co., Ltd. regarding the completion of the judicial enforcement plan, which involves the forced reduction of shares due to legal actions [1] Group 1: Share Reduction Details - From November 7, 2025, to February 4, 2026, Jiangsu Hongsu plans to reduce its holdings by a total of 18,134,899 shares, which represents approximately 1.7995% of the company's total share capital [1] - The reduction will occur through two methods: 10,077,777 shares (about 1%) via centralized bidding and 8,057,122 shares (approximately 0.7995%) through block trading [1] - As of the announcement date, Jiangsu Hongsu has already executed the reduction of 18,134,522 shares, which also accounts for 1.7995% of the current total share capital [1] Group 2: Remaining Shares - There are 377 shares remaining from the judicial enforcement plan that have not yet been executed [1]

上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（2月5日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计104052千克，今日仓单 较上一日增加1020千克。 沪金主力盘内大幅回调，周四（2月5日）黄金期货开盘价1131.84元/克，截至目前最高1139.80元/克，最 低1077.02元/克。截止发稿报1105.76元/克，跌幅1.35%，成交量为631419手，持仓为172503手，日持仓 减少6041手。 美国1月"小非农"ADP就业人数不及预期。ADP研究周三数据显示，私营部门1月就业仅增加2.2万个岗 位，低于市场预期，前一个月数据被下修。美国劳工统计局：劳工部2月4日恢复正常全面运作，非农将 于2月11日发布，CPI数据改至2月13日公布。 美国政府：美国宣布与日本、墨西哥及欧盟合作，共同开发关键矿产资源。 | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 104052 | 0 | ...

美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为9.9%，维持利率不变的概率为90.1%。美联储到4月累计降息25个基 点的概率为23.2%，维持利率不变的概率为75.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。到6月累计降息25 个基点的概率为46.0%。 【机构观点】 昨日金银市场先扬后抑，美国晚间公布的ADP小非农就业数据表现疲软，一度令美元承压，金银价格相 应持续震荡走高。但美股开盘后，由于AMD未来业绩指引不及预期，引发市场担忧，连带拖累其他科 技股及整个纳斯达克指数表现，金银亦受到拖累，而今晨AMD、NVDA等科技股在盘后均再度转为上 涨，市场情绪有所好转。总得来说，当前金银市场整体仍处于急速下挫后的反弹与修复阶段，伦敦金和 银的价格分别反弹至50%和61.8%（以近期巨震的区间计算）的关键斐波那契回撤压力位附近，同样也 是重要整数关口附近。从中长期而言，我们认为金银整体的宏观利好环境仍在，但短期仍需保持谨慎， 尤其是国内临近春节，市场流动性可能缓慢下降，操作上可仍以风险控制为重。 【黄金期货行情表现】 2月5日，沪金主力暂报1105.76元/克，跌幅1.35%，今日沪金主力开盘价1131.84元/克，截至目前最 ...

1、央行公告称，2月5日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1185亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作 利率1.40%，投标量1185亿元，中标量1185亿元。同时，以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位 中标方式开展了3000亿元14天期逆回购操作。Wind数据显示，当日3540亿元逆回购到期， 据此计算，单日净投放645亿元。 2、财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于海南自由贸易港岛内居民消费的进境商品" 零关税"政策的通知》，自公布之日起实施。政策规定，对海南自由贸易港岛内居民在指定经 营场所购买的进境商品，在免税额度和商品清单范围内免征进口关税、进口环节以及国内环节 增值税和消费税。其中，岛内居民包括持有海南省身份证、海南省居住证或海南省社保卡的中 国公民，在海南省工作生活并持有居留证件的境外人员。免税额度为每人每年1万元人民币， 不限购买次数。 3、中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议。会议要求，大力发展科技金融、绿色金融、 普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融，强化消费领域金融支持。建设多层次金融服务体系，着力支 持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续做好金融支持融资平台债务风险化解工 作，支持地方政府持续 ...

股指期货全景日报 2026/2/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4665.2 | 环比 数据指标 -16.4↓ IF次主力合约（2602） | 最新 4671.6 | 环比 -16.4↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3061.4 | -4.4↓ IH次主力合约（2602） | 3063.6 | -2.2↓ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8120.2 | -148.2↓ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8145.0 | -139.0↓ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8039.8 | -123.8↓ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8077.8 | -113.4↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1608.0 | -19.2↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3473.4 | -148.8↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -67.2 | +23.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5081.4 | -168.0↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色减仓下行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜持续减仓下行，主力期价一度逼近 10 万关口，午后震荡 企稳。从盘面来看，白银日内再度大幅下挫，导致整体盘面情绪走 差，有色普跌。产业层面，SMM 报道：铜价走弱下游备货情绪得到一 定提振，且由于北方地区电解铜货源持续南下，同时春节将至物流 趋于紧张，持货商挺价情绪渐强，现货升贴水逐步抬升。短期关注 10 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日沪铝持续减仓下行。从盘面来看，白银日内再度大幅下挫， 导 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1105.760 | -35.9↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 20255 | -3256.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 172,503.00 | -6041.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 9,766.00 | -1268.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | | 631,419.00 +168701.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,653,202.00 | +709989.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 104052 | 1020↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 412,459 | -10782↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1105.47 | -34.83↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 22,625.00 | 507.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -0.29 | 1.11 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton range [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel was 134,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,250 yuan; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of Shanghai nickel was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; LME 3 - month nickel was 17,330 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 65 US dollars; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 93,478 lots, a decrease of 5,975 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel was - 42,420 lots, an increase of 2,105 lots; LME nickel inventory was 286,314 tons, an increase of 786 tons; the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,396 tons, an increase of 4,602 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants totaled 11,148 tons, unchanged; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel was 50,464 tons, an increase of 2,392 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,750 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 139,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,950 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel was 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 33,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract was 5,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 222 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.08 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,172.34 million tons, a decrease of 56.28 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore was 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel was 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.72 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel was 54.9 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises; the US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, highlighting the weakening momentum of the labor market at the beginning of the year; the US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas. In the fundamental aspect, the Philippines has entered the rainy season, and the import volume of nickel ore is in a downward trend; Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, but the quota for the first quarter will be postponed, and the raw material contraction is expected to be transmitted in the second quarter. In the smelting end, the production of Indonesian ferronickel remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase; domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices, there is a profit space for production, and the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. In the demand end, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be high; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. Domestic nickel inventory is growing faster, the market mainly buys on dips, and the spot premium has declined; overseas LME inventory continues to increase, and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, the position is stable and the price is adjusted, and the market sentiment is recovering [3] 8. Key Concerns - There is no news today [3]