1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market has continued its high - volatility feature in the past week, with the focus shifting to the Middle East situation. The sharp rise in oil prices and freight rates has pushed up inflation expectations [5][9]. - Overseas, investors are closely watching the US - Iran war and the deterioration of the geopolitical situation. The macro - logic of the capital market has shifted from the divergence on AI to the unexpected inflation, weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the weak employment data has reignited stagflation concerns. The VIX index has risen significantly, and the rise in oil prices has driven up energy - chemical commodities. The rebound of the US dollar has suppressed non - US currencies, while the RMB has remained strong. The decline of gold and silver implies a rotation of funds and reflects investors' stronger expectation of stagflation than risk - aversion [5][9]. - Domestically, the misalignment of the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand have suppressed the economic recovery. The Two Sessions and practical economic goals have sent a stable signal, supporting the stability of the RMB exchange rate and making A - shares relatively resilient in the sharply declining Asia - Pacific stock markets [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - The capital market has high volatility, with the focus on the Middle East. Oil and freight price surges have pushed up inflation expectations. Overseas, the macro - logic has shifted to inflation, weakening Fed rate - cut expectations, and weak employment data has raised stagflation concerns. Domestically, the Spring Festival and weak demand have affected the economy, but the Two Sessions have provided stability [5][9]. - In the domestic market, the bond market has risen, the stock market has fallen, and the commodity market has shown a weak and differentiated performance. The growth - style stocks have performed worse than value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index has a weekly change of - 5.75%, with 7 out of 10 commodity sub - indexes rising and 3 falling. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have led the decline, while the energy - chemical sector has been boosted by the Middle East situation [6][15]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market has risen, the stock market has fallen, and the commodity market has shown a weak and differentiated performance. The growth - style stocks have performed worse than value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index has a weekly change of - 5.75%, with 7 out of 10 commodity sub - indexes rising and 3 falling. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals have led the decline, while the energy - chemical sector has been boosted by the Middle East situation [6][15]. Capital Flows - The commodity futures market has seen a small overall inflow of funds, with a rotation among sectors. The energy, chemical, agricultural products, non - metallic building materials, and grain sectors have seen significant inflows, while the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors have seen significant outflows [17]. Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures have risen with large gains. The top - rising commodity futures are the container shipping index, crude oil, and fuel oil, while the top - falling ones are tin futures, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon [21]. Market Sentiment - From the perspective of volume - price cooperation, there are few commodity futures with obvious long - position increases and price rises, such as pure benzene, ethylene glycol, and styrene. There are many commodity futures with obvious long - position increases and price falls, such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and palladium [24]. Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index has increased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index have also risen. Most commodity futures sectors have seen an increase in volatility, except for the coking coal and steel ore sector, while the energy and agricultural products sectors have seen a notable increase in volatility [25]. Data Tracking - International commodities have shown mixed performance. The BDI has declined, the CRB has risen, soybeans and corn have closed up, oil prices have soared, and gold, silver, and copper have fallen sharply. The gold - oil ratio has dropped significantly from a high level [28]. - The asphalt production rate has rebounded from the bottom, real - estate sales have seasonally recovered but are still weak, freight rates have rebounded, and short - term capital interest rates are at a low level [45]. Macro Logic - The stock index has been weak and has fallen across the board. Valuations are under pressure, and the risk premium ERP has rebounded from a low level [31][32]. - Commodity price indexes have risen significantly, and inflation expectations have rebounded significantly [37]. - The US bond yield has rebounded overall, the term structure has steepened bearishly, the term spread has fluctuated narrowly, the real interest rate has first declined and then risen, and the gold price has risen and then fallen [52]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" has fluctuated, the Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread has rebounded after a significant decline [63]. Fed Rate - Cut Expectations - The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has decreased. The expected probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.5 - 3.75% is 56.9%, significantly higher than last week's 43.7%. The expected probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% has decreased from 45.2% to 37.4%. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][70]. Economic Data - The US non - farm payroll data in February 2026 was significantly worse than expected. The non - farm employment population decreased by 92,000, far exceeding the expected increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the labor force participation rate dropped to 62% [75][83]. - China's inflation data in February 2026 exceeded expectations. The CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [78]. This Week's Focus - Monday (March 9): Japan's January trade balance, China's February CPI annual rate, Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index, US February New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation, and a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - Tuesday (March 10): Germany's January seasonally adjusted trade balance, US February NFIB small business confidence index, US February existing home sales annualized, China's February M2 money supply annual rate, and the US Department of Commerce will hold a round - table meeting for US robot manufacturers. - Wednesday (March 11): US API crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6, US February unadjusted CPI annual rate, US February seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6, and OPEC will release its monthly oil market report. - Thursday (March 12): US 10 - year Treasury auction on March 11, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7, US January trade balance, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending March 6, and the IEA will release its monthly oil market report. - Friday (March 13): UK's January three - month GDP monthly rate, Eurozone's January industrial output monthly rate, US January core PCE price index annual rate, US January personal expenditure monthly rate, US fourth - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate revision, US January durable goods orders monthly rate, US January JOLTs job openings, US March one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, and US March University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market opened lower and moved higher today. In the short term, precious metals are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, but the medium - to - long - term bullish logic remains intact. It is recommended to make long - term investments at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1140.000 yuan/gram, down 0.8; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 21,547 yuan/kilogram, up 14.00. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 2,975.00 to 110,867.00 hands, and those of Shanghai Silver decreased by 218.00 to 3,326.00 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract increased by 39,970.00 to 312,400.00, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract increased by 262,854.00 to 619,645.00. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold decreased by 99 to 104,934 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 2,582 to 253,370 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1140.38, up 1.05; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,455.00, down 736.00. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.38, up 1.85; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 1,092.00, down 750.00 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.57 tons to 1073.32 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 47.90 tons to 15,761.62 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC increased by 968.00 to 160,145.00 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1,078.00 to 23,338.00 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1302.80 tons, down 0.19, and the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1345.32 tons, up 79.57, and the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.95, down 0.08; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.80, down 0.02. The VIX volatility index was 29.49, up 5.74; the CBOE gold volatility index was 34.26, down 1.05. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.31, down 0.02; the gold - silver ratio was 62.27, up 1.67 [2] 3.5 Industry News - After the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei in a joint air strike by the US and Israel, Khamenei's son Mojtaba will be appointed as his successor. Iranian President Pezeshkian called on the people to unite and defend the country and stated that Iran will not attack neighboring countries unless attacked first. China's gold reserves at the end of February increased by 30,000 ounces to 74.22 million ounces. The US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, far below the expected increase of 55,000 [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On March 9 at 23:00, the US inflation expectation of the New York Fed in February; on March 10 at 18:00, the US NFIB small business confidence index in February; on March 10 at 22:00, the US existing home sales data in February; on March 11 at 20:30, the US CPI monthly and annual rates in February; on March 13 at 20:30, the US core PCE price index in January; on March 13 at 22:00, the US durable goods orders in January [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the impact of overseas geopolitical conflicts on re - inflation expectations is gradually digested by the market, the Two Sessions have become the current focus of the market. The government work report's support for high - tech manufacturing has boosted related sectors, and positive fiscal policy arrangements have strengthened market expectations of policy - supported economic growth. With the weakening of external conflicts, the market refocuses on the domestic situation, and the stable and improving fundamentals also provide support for the market. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of major and secondary major contracts of IF, IC, IH, and IM all declined. For example, the IF major contract (2603) dropped to 4599.2, down 50.6. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread dropping to 1636.8, down 19.2. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF increased by 1768.0 to 28,976.00, while those of IH decreased by 177.0 to 21,666.00. The net positions of IC and IM decreased by 3446.0 and 4581.0 respectively. [2] - **Futures - Spot Relationship**: The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. The basis of the IF major contract was - 16.3, down 1.8, while the basis of the IH major contract was - 0.6, up 2.1. [2] 3.2 Market Conditions - **Market Transactions**: A - share trading volume rebounded significantly to 26,705.82 billion yuan, up 4513.43 billion yuan. The margin trading balance decreased to 26,455.61 billion yuan, down 62.44 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume decreased to 2826.47 billion yuan, down 337.01 billion yuan. [2] - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 25.93%, down 51.71 percentage points. The closing prices and implied volatilities of IO at - the - money call and put options changed. The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index decreased to 15.52%, down 0.03 percentage points. The volume PCR and position PCR increased. [2] - **Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis**: The overall performance of all A - shares was weak, with scores of 3.30, down 4.00, in terms of overall performance, and 2.60, down 5.10, in terms of technical aspects, and 4.10, down 2.80, in terms of capital aspects. [2] 3.3 Industry News - **Geopolitical Events**: On March 9, local time, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Khamenei, was elected the new supreme leader of Iran. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Iran attacking Israeli oil facilities, leading to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries and rising oil prices. [2] - **Economic Data**: In February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 1% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. A - share major indices closed down, with the CSI 1000 being relatively strong, and most industry sectors declined. [2] 3.4 Key Events to Watch - From March 4 - 11, the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held; from March 5 - 12, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress was held. Other important data releases include China's February trade and financial data (pending), US February CPI and core CPI on March 11 at 20:30, US January trade data on March 12 at 20:30, and US February PCE and core PCE on March 13 at 20:30. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory of steel products is at a high level, and steel prices are fluctuating. The supply and demand of rebar and hot-rolled coils are in different situations. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand recovery, and cost support, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4][5]. Summary by Directory Supply - Rebar production has increased, with long-process production decreasing due to blast furnace restrictions and short-process production increasing as electric furnaces resume production. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in the country is 173,310 tons (+8,210 tons). Hot-rolled coil production has decreased significantly due to environmental protection restrictions, with the weekly output at 301,110 tons (-8,500 tons) [5][7]. - The blast furnace operating rate is 77.71%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.51%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.13%. The electric furnace operating rate is 24.71%, a week-on-week increase of 14.57%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 20.71%, a week-on-week increase of 13.36% [7]. - Due to blast furnace restrictions in the North China region, as of March 6, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan is 84.11%, a week-on-week decrease of 12.7% [29]. Demand - Steel demand is recovering but remains at a low level. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 98,230 tons (+64,680 tons), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 281,570 tons (+13,200 tons) [7]. - As of March 6, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 56,500 tons, and the trading volume is at a low level. The weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils is 40,300 tons. As of February 27, the downstream cold-rolled production is 885,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,600 tons, and it is at a high level year-on-year [44][48]. Inventory - Rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories continue to accumulate. The total rebar inventory is 875,680 tons (+75,080 tons), the social inventory is 637,750 tons (+69,990 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 237,930 tons (+5,090 tons). The total hot-rolled coil inventory is 471,690 tons (+19,540 tons), the social inventory is 381,610 tons (+24,240 tons), and the steel mill inventory is 90,080 tons (-4,700 tons) [7]. - As of March 6, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 597,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 67,000 tons. The inventory of major steel products is 1,402,740 tons, a week-on-week increase of 106,690 tons [51]. Price - As of March 6, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3,300 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the average price of hot-rolled coils across the country is 3,265 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [10]. - As of March 6, the basis of the rebar main contract is 102 yuan/ton (-41 yuan), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract is 0 yuan/ton (-15 yuan) [7]. Raw Materials - The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,470 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1,483 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15 yuan [17]. Other Market Data - According to customs data, in December, steel exports were 1.13 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 132,000 tons; from January to December, the cumulative steel export volume was 119 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.5%. In November, hot-rolled coil exports were 180,480 tons [61]. - According to Steel Union data, in January, automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 846,000 vehicles; automobile sales were 2.346 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 926,200 tons. In January, new energy vehicle production was 1.041 million vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 677,000 vehicles; new energy vehicle sales were 945,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 765,000 tons [65]. - From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of housing was 597.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; the completed housing area was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place for development enterprises were 93.117 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4% [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.08%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.70%, the main contract of platinum closed down 1.43%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 2.18%. The short - term safe - haven situation indicates that trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is weak while inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, with a strong US dollar index [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle - East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US employment unexpectedly decreased and the unemployment rate rose. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation has put the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers regarding the future direction of interest rates. For the first time, the minutes clearly mention discussions about the possibility of interest rate hikes. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing an end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly [1]. - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weakly volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a low level in the medium term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. 3. Summary of Each Section Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $5181.30 per ounce, up 1.73% from the previous day and down 2.17% from last week; London gold was at $5127.55 per ounce, up 0.46% from the previous day and down 1.81% from last week; Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1140 yuan per gram, down 0.07% from the previous day and down 4.78% from last week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 918 lots; the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 1.73% from last week [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $84.70 per ounce, up 2.64% from the previous day and down 10.27% from last week; London silver was at $82.34 per ounce, down 2.23% from the previous day and down 8.49% from last week; Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 21547 yuan per kilogram, up 0.07% from the previous day and down 11.80% from last week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 667 lots; the iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.88% from last week [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and up 7.74% from last week; London platinum was at $2138 per ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week; the main platinum contract on the GZFE closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and up 1.25% from last week [6]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 1447 lots [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and up 5.85% from last week; London palladium was at $1727 per ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and up 3.91% from last week; the main palladium contract on the GZFE closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and up 0.07% from last week [7]. - Other data: The net short position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged at - 1096 lots [7]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up 0.00% from last week [8]. - US economic data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.50%, up 0.10 percentage points; the unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10 percentage points; non - farm payrolls decreased by 9.20 million, down 2.18 million from last month [8][10]. - Inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.40%, down 0.30 percentage points; core CPI (year - on - year) is 2.50%, down 0.10 percentage points; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.90%, up 0.08 percentage points; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 3.00%, up 0.17 percentage points [8]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the range of 375 - 400 basis points in March 2026 is 95.3%, and this probability gradually decreases over time, while the probability of lower interest rate ranges gradually increases [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, following the energy price movements, and the medium - term trend depends on the Middle East situation and spot demand [3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Situation - The conflict in Iran remains intense, oil production in multiple Middle Eastern countries has declined, and G7 countries may release crude oil reserves. A - shares, stock index futures, and government bond futures in China have all fallen, while crude oil, chemicals, and shipping have all skyrocketed, with 21 varieties hitting the daily limit. Silver and gold are fluctuating, while platinum and palladium have fallen sharply. The non - ferrous metals market shows a differentiated trend, with copper, nickel, and tin falling, and aluminum, aluminum alloy, and alumina rising after reaching a high and then falling [3] Aluminum Market Data - Today, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum is 25,010, and the spot price is 25,240, with a spot premium of 230 points over the futures. This week, Shanghai aluminum has risen significantly, and the spot discount has widened to - 190 yuan. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has continued to rise significantly, the alumina inventory has increased, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory has risen significantly, with general spot demand. The LME inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME spot has turned into a large premium of 47 US dollars, indicating improved overseas spot demand. This week, the RMB exchange rate has fallen slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio of aluminum prices has dropped to 7.36, with the external market performing significantly stronger than the domestic market [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil has skyrocketed with a large amplitude, and LME aluminum has risen after reaching a high and then fallen, trading around 3,468 US dollars. Shanghai aluminum has also risen after reaching a high and then fallen, closing at 25,010, with a strong technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai aluminum has increased while the positions have remained stable, and the market sentiment shows greater divergence [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum - Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | March 3 | 6.9171 | - 160 | - 10 | 7.57 | | March 4 | 6.8945 | - 150 | 4 | 7.33 | | March 5 | 6.9184 | - 140 | 2 | 7.36 | | March 6 | 6.9074 | - 120 | - 3 | 7.52 | | March 9 | 6.9177 | - 190 | 47 | 7.36 | [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 3.89% today. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.01%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, with a gain of 7.04%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index, with a gain of 0.18%. All theme indices rose, with the Energy Index having the largest increase of 12.08% and the Economic Crops Index having the smallest increase of 0.24%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was the European Line, rising 15.39%, and the single - variety index with the largest decline was Tin, with a decline of -2.47% [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The closing price of the Nanhua Composite Index (NHCl) today was 3118.32, up 116.62 points or 3.89% from yesterday, with an annualized return of 21.91%, an annualized volatility of 14.72%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.49. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 2257.19, down 0.13 points or -0.01%, with an annualized return of 103.84%, an annualized volatility of 31.79%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.27. Other indices also had their respective closing prices, point changes, percentage changes, annualized returns, annualized volatilities, and Sharpe ratios [3] Agricultural Products Sector - In the agricultural products sector, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1114.15, up 22.12 points or 2.03%. Some single - variety indices in the agricultural products sector had the following percentage changes: Palm Oil rose 5.45%, Rapeseed Oil rose 2.98%, Rapeseed rose 3.81%, Sesame Seeds rose 2.49%, Corn rose 0.08% [3][9] Energy and Chemical Sector - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1981.47, up 130.24 points or 7.04%. Some single - variety indices in the energy and chemical sector had the following percentage changes: Synthetic Ammonia rose 9.44%, LPG rose 6.13%, Aromatics rose 4.05%, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil rose 12.12% [3][12] Black Sector - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2555.81, up 32.62 points or 1.29%. Some single - variety indices in the black sector also had their respective percentage changes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the outbreak of war between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have rapidly escalated, leading to a decline in the expected supply of Middle - Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract has risen strongly, with a cumulative increase of 36.12% to 664.8 yuan per barrel. However, with the sharp rise in oil prices and Iran not announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the upward momentum may weaken [4][12][13]. - Given the further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, the continuous rise of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the inability to transport energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East, and the pressure on Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to stop production due to full storage, international crude oil prices have risen significantly, and the crude oil premium has strengthened. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries have announced a resumption of production increase in the second quarter, the medium - term negative factors cannot offset the short - term geopolitical positive factors. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate strongly [5][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot prices have risen significantly, and the basis discount has widened significantly**: As of the week of March 6, 2026, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 84 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 579.4 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 106.6 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract closed at 664.8 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 176.4 yuan per barrel. The discount has widened significantly, and the basis is - 85.4 yuan per barrel [8][12]. - **1.2 The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, and crude oil prices have continued to rise**: With the outbreak of war between the US and Iran, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased, leading to a decrease in the expected supply of Middle - Eastern crude oil. This week, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract has risen strongly, with a cumulative increase of 36.12% to 664.8 yuan per barrel. With the sharp rise in oil prices and Iran not announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the upward momentum may weaken [4][12][13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - **2.1 OPEC+ production increase rhythm slows down, and the supply excess expectation still exists**: In April 2023, eight countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc. announced a voluntary production cut of about 1.65 million barrels per day of crude oil, and in November 2023, they announced an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. These two production cut measures have been extended many times. Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a systematic and phased production increase policy. The actual production of OPEC has increased. In December 2025, the crude oil production of OPEC member countries was 28.564 million barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.874 million barrels per day [21][22][23]. - **2.2 Non - OPEC oil - producing countries' production capacity remains at a high level**: The production capacity expansion of non - OPEC+ countries has further exacerbated the supply excess. The production of South American oil - producing countries represented by Brazil and Guyana has continued to rise, and US shale oil has shown amazing resilience. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 407, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 79. The daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.696 million barrels, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 188,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [35]. - **2.3 The northern hemisphere's crude oil demand will enter the off - season**: As the world's largest crude oil consumer, the US has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. After late February, the northern hemisphere's crude oil consumption will enter the off - season, the demand factor will weaken, and the inventory will change from destocking to stockpiling. EIA and IEA predict an increase in global oil inventories, and the growth rate of global oil demand in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023 [37][38]. - **2.4 US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and refinery operating rates have increased slightly**: As of the week of February 27, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 439 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 3.475 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 5.504 million barrels. The refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.2%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points [40]. - **2.5 China's crude oil imports increased slightly in 2025**: In 2025, China's crude oil market showed the characteristics of "record - high imports, stable production growth, and processing transformation". The annual crude oil imports reached 577.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The annual production of crude oil in industrial enterprises above the designated size was 216.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The annual crude oil processing volume was 737.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In 2026, China's crude oil consumption will enter a new stage of "stable total volume and optimized structure" [44][47][48]. 3.3 Global Geopolitical Conflicts Break Out in Multiple Points, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - During the Spring Festival in 2026, the Middle East was in a high - risk balance of "talking and fighting". The core of the crisis is the extreme game between the US and Iran around the nuclear issue and regional dominance. The Red Sea shipping crisis has resonated with the US - Iran confrontation, and the intervention of major - power games has made the Middle East crisis more global. This geopolitical storm has directly pushed up international oil prices [54][55][56]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Have Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - Since February 2026, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile and upward trend, and the market's long - buying power has also increased. As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 172,712 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and an increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the January average, an increase of 137.20%. The average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 300,712 contracts, with a week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and an increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the January average, an increase of 63.04% [60]. 3.5 Conclusion - Given the further escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran, the continuous rise of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the inability to transport energy supplies such as crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East, and the pressure on Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to stop production due to full storage, international crude oil prices have risen significantly, and the crude oil premium has strengthened. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries have announced a resumption of production increase in the second quarter, the medium - term negative factors cannot offset the short - term geopolitical positive factors. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures prices will continue to operate strongly [5][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of apples is strong. The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. As of February 27, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 552.92 million tons, a decrease of 19.08 million tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 18.11 million tons, a reduction of 3.2%. The inventory is only higher than that in the 2018/19 fruit season [5]. - Although the apple price is relatively high this fruit season, the sales and delivery situation before the Spring Festival was acceptable. After the Spring Festival, from March to April is a relatively off - season for other fruits to be on the market. Recently, the sales situation of apples has improved, and the inventory reduction speed has accelerated compared with last week [5]. - As March enters the delivery month, the market has once again focused on whether the cold - storage apples can meet the delivery requirements and the cost of making warehouse receipts. The fundamental situation of the May contract for apples is indeed strong, but the price of the May contract has increased significantly today, and there may be some profit - taking orders for closing positions. It is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices. It is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Price**: The Fuji apple price index was 110.41, the next - working - day price was 110.56, with a decrease of 0.15. The prices of various apple varieties in different regions remained stable, such as the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples was 4.20, and the prices of Qixia and Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples were 4.00 and 4.10 respectively, with no change. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 8.00, and the next - working - day price was 8.06, with a decrease of 0.06 [2]. - **Futures Price**: For AP01, the price was 8540, the previous closing price was 8586, with a decrease of 46; for AP05, the price was 10316, the previous closing price was 10753, with a decrease of 437; for AP10, the price was 8652, the previous closing price was 8690, with a decrease of 38. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increased by 391, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 399, and AP10 - AP01 increased by 8 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 was - 540, an increase of 46 compared with the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 2316, an increase of 437; against AP10 was - 652.0, an increase of 38 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Apple Market News** - As of March 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 527.53 million tons, a decrease of 25.39 million tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 21.7 million tons, a reduction of 4.1% [7]. - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 15.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 11.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72% [7]. - In Shandong, the apple price remained stable, the number of customers increased, and in Shaanxi, the demand for high - quality goods was good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was relatively high. The market arrivals increased slightly, sales were stable, and prices were stable [7]. - In Shandong, the price of late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji high - quality apples in cold storage was stable, and there were merchants packing in the cold storage, concentrated in the main producing areas. Currently, the trading volume in the cold storage was not large, and foreign trade merchants mainly purchased medium - and small - sized fruits, and the number of merchants increased compared with before. In Qixia, the mainstream quotation of 80 and above first - and second - grade paper - bagged Fuji apples was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price was stable, the number of merchants increased, mainly purchasing high - quality goods. Recently, the transactions were good, the supply of high - quality goods was less, and the purchasing difficulty was relatively large. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of cold - storage paper - bagged Fuji 70 and above was 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, priced according to quality [7]. - **Trading Logic**: The apple market has a strong fundamental situation. The low inventory, good pre - and post - festival sales, and market attention during the delivery month all support the market. However, due to the significant increase in the price of the May contract, there may be profit - taking, and it is recommended to build long positions after a pullback [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Considering that the price of the May contract is already relatively high, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the May contract and short on the October contract [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provides 10 figures, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the whole country, and the cold - storage apple delivery volume, etc. The data sources are mainly Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - Today, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday volatility. Last week's US data was mixed, with the February non - farm payrolls decreasing by 92,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, both falling short of expectations. Most Fed officials tend to focus on inflation, and the probability of a rate cut in the first half of the year in the interest rate market is still low [1] - The situation between the US and Iran is tense, with the war expanding in scale and time. Precious metals are oscillating at historical highs, and the sharp rise in crude oil brings uncertainty to global inflation and economic prospects, leading to declines in the non - ferrous and stock markets. Attention should be paid to the liquidity shock caused by recession trading [1] - In 2025, the production of platinum and palladium from major overseas mines decreased by 3% year - on - year. In 2026, due to factors such as insufficient previous capital expenditure of overseas mines, declining grades of producing mines, and high underground mining costs, the supply - side brittle constraints remain strong, and it is still advisable to go long on dips in the long term [2] - In the short term, the market trades around the Middle East situation. Coupled with the strong energy and chemical sector and the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the macro - drive of platinum and palladium weakens, and the market gradually returns to fundamental pricing, lacking directional guidance. It is advisable to look for lows with a high safety margin and participate with a small number of long orders [2] Other Key Points Fed Officials' Views - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that non - farm data cannot be ignored but does not need to be over - interpreted [2] - White House Economic Council Director Hassett believes that the average number of employed people should be focused on [2] - Cleveland Fed President Haracker said that the Fed's interest - rate policy is likely to remain unchanged for a long time, and the global dominance of the US dollar is difficult to shake [2] - Boston Fed President Collins said there is no need to change the monetary - policy stance [2] - Fed Governor Milan said the neutral interest rate is about 2.5% to 2.75% [2] Trump's Statements - Trump may increase the military budget to $1.5 trillion, consider expanding the scope of strikes, hopes to "completely eliminate" the Iranian leadership, and has a new candidate for leadership. He will not reach any agreement with Iran unless it surrenders. There is currently no plan to deploy ground troops in Iran, and the possibility of Kurdish forces participating in the war has been ruled out. He will make a final decision to end the military operation against Iran at an "appropriate time" [2]