Core Insights - The article highlights that U.S. soybean export volumes have exceeded market expectations, leading to increased trader confidence and speculation about further price increases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. soybean exports are performing better than anticipated, which is a positive indicator for the market [1] - Increased trader confidence is noted as a result of the favorable export data, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The article raises the question of how much further prices may rise, indicating ongoing speculation about future price movements in the soybean market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The US - Indonesia trade agreement reduced the soybean tariff from 32% to 19%, with Indonesia planning to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products. There were also sales of US soybeans to unknown destinations, and the US soybean biodiesel policy supported prices. However, the domestic supply - side pressure limited the upside, and the domestic continuous meal was expected to maintain a strong and volatile short - term trend [3]. - The oil market: Night trading of oils was strong. The MPOB report was neutral - bearish, but high - frequency data showed a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Indian imports changed significantly, with a 60% month - on - month increase in palm oil imports in June. With strong demand, palm oil prices were expected to be supported, and the overall oil market was expected to remain in a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties had different changes. For example, the closing price of soybean oil futures was 8072, up 30 with a 0.37% increase; palm oil was 8796, up 74 with a 0.85% increase; and rapeseed oil was 9440, down 30 with a - 3.15% decrease. There were also changes in spreads and price - ratio spreads [2]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4158 ringgit/ton, up 49 with a 1.19% increase; CBOT soybeans were 1027 cents/bushel, up 8 with a 0.74% increase; CBOT US soybean oil was 56 cents/pound, up 1 with a 2.71% increase; and CBOT US soybean meal was 284 dollars/ton, up 1 with a 0.21% increase [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices also had different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 8230, with a 0.00% change; Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 8240, with a 0.24% increase; and the spot price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil was 8870, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Spot Spreads and Basis**: There were corresponding changes in spot spreads and basis. For example, the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil remained at - 570, and the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 158 [2]. Industry Information - **Palm Oil Industry**: Indonesia increased the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 35% to 40%. Malaysia's August reference price for crude palm oil was significantly higher than that in July, and the export tax increased from 8.5% to 9% [3]. - **Protein Meal Industry**: The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement to reduce the soybean tariff, and Indonesia planned to purchase $4.5 billion worth of US agricultural products, which boosted the market's confidence in US soybean exports [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is small and in line with market expectations. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is at a relatively high historical level, and the weather in the main production areas is favorable, with no significant impact expected in the near term. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [2] - In the domestic corn market, supply capacity is increasing due to more auctions and high - temperature storage issues. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are in the off - season. Imported corn auctions continue, but the transaction premium and volume are decreasing [4] Group 3: Summary by Section (Market News and Important Data) Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal 2509 contract closed at 3029 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+1.75%); the rapeseed meal 2509 contract closed at 2719 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton (+2.49%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, soybean meal spot prices increased by 30, 50, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. In Fujian, rapeseed meal spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: Brazil's expected 2025 soybean export volume is 1.1 billion tons, an increase of about 130 million tons year - on - year. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is raised to 49.5 million tons [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The corn 2509 contract closed at 2296 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (+0.13%); the corn starch 2509 contract closed at 2646 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.27%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price remained unchanged, and in Jilin, the corn starch spot price also remained unchanged [3] - Market News: As of July 12, 2025, the first - season corn harvest progress in Brazil is 98.3%. Brazil's corn exports from July 1 - 11 are slower than last year [3] Group 4: Summary by Section (Market Analysis) Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small. US soybean good - to - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, with rising soybean meal inventory and high physical inventory of feed enterprises [2] Corn - In China, corn supply is increasing due to more auctions and storage issues. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and are in the off - season. Imported corn auctions show a change in market sentiment [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The corn market has different trends in the short, medium, and long term. Short - term prices may be under pressure but could stabilize, medium - term prices are expected to be stronger, and long - term prices are limited by policy and substitution factors [2]. - The pig market is likely to have a weak shock in the short term, face challenges in rising in the medium term, and maintain high production capacity in the long term [4]. - The egg market may strengthen in the short term, have a potential rebound in the medium term, and face supply pressure in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Market Conditions**: The night - session of the previous day's corn futures showed a slightly stronger trend, with the 2509 contract rising 0.61% to 2300 yuan/ton. The spot market in the Northeast was weakly stable, while that in North China rose slightly [2]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2300 - 2310 yuan/ton, and the price at Shekou Port remained unchanged at 2440 yuan/ton. The mainstream purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast remained unchanged at 2243 yuan/ton, and that in North China rose 7 yuan/ton to 2456 yuan/ton. As of July 17, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 450 to 184,971, and the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong remained at 50 yuan/ton. Today, CGS will organize an auction of 294,976 tons of imported corn [2]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the continuous import corn auction weakens the bullish sentiment, but the anti - price - decline sentiment and the positive and expanding wheat - corn price difference may support the price. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to tighten, but the price increase is limited. In the long term, policy grain supply and wheat substitution will limit the price increase [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term interval operation; medium - term low - buying; short - term downward pressure. Hold long positions for the 2509 contract, with the first pressure level at 2310 and the next at 2340 if it breaks through [2]. Pig - **Market Conditions**: The previous day's main pig futures contracts fluctuated narrowly, with the LH2509 contract falling 0.28% to 14,060 yuan/ton and the LH2511 contract falling 0.07% to 13,535 yuan/ton [4]. - **Important Information**: On the 17th, the national average pig price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg. The number of fertile sows in June 2025 was 40.43 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The fat - standard price difference on July 17 was 0.13 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.01 yuan/jin. The weekly average slaughter weight was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg. The number of futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 444 [4]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the pig price may maintain a weak shock. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously. In the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term short - selling; medium - term interval operation; short - term decline. For the 2509 contract, the pressure is at 14,400 - 14,600, and the support is at 13,870 - 14,000. For the 2511 contract, the pressure is at 13,800, and the support is at 13,400 [4]. Egg - **Market Conditions**: The previous day's egg futures fluctuated weakly, with the JD2509 contract falling 0.28% to 3595 yuan/500kg [4]. - **Important Information**: The previous day's egg price mainly rose steadily, with the main - producing area average price rising 0.13 yuan/jin to 2.89 yuan/jin and the main - selling area average price rising 0.1 yuan/jin to 3.3 yuan/jin. The average production - link inventory was 0.93 days, down 0.02 days, and the circulation - link inventory remained at 1.04 days. The average price of old hens was 5.06 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin. The number of laying hens in June was about 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 6.77%. In the first half of the year, the national poultry slaughter was 8.14 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, and the poultry egg production was 17.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% [4]. - **Market Logic**: In the short term, the egg price may strengthen but is difficult to rise sharply. In the medium term, there may be a rebound in August - September, but the high point is not overly optimistic. In the long term, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 08 contract operates in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3580 - 3600 and the lower support at 3400 - 3420. The 09 contract follows the short - long and long - short strategy, with the short - term pressure at 3650 - 3680 and the support at 3500 - 3550. If the elimination in the third quarter is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 18, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Content: Analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of multiple agricultural product futures including soybean meal, soybeans, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Technical buying drove up CBOT soybean prices, and the domestic market showed a strong trend [4][6]. - **Sugar**: The market was in a narrow consolidation phase [7]. - **Cotton**: The near - term contracts were stronger than the long - term ones [11]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrived earlier, and the culling of hens slowed down [16]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for the end - of - month market to confirm the price trend, with a focus on reserve policies [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4,200 yuan/ton (+34, +0.82%) during the day and 4,215 yuan/ton (+21, +0.50%) at night; DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,029 yuan/ton (+51, +1.71%) during the day and 3,033 yuan/ton (+22, +0.73%) at night. CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1027.25 cents/bushel (+7.5, +0.74%). The spot price of soybean meal in different regions had various changes, and the trading volume was 16.81 million tons/day, with a weekly inventory of 84.29 million tons [4]. - **News**: On July 17, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to active technical buying and strong Chicago soybean oil prices. However, the optimistic outlook for US soybean production limited the price increase [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybeans had a trend intensity of +1, indicating a relatively strong trend [6]. 3.2 Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.75 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,050 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,828 yuan/ton. CAOC estimated the domestic sugar production, consumption, and import volume for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 season [7][8]. - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 50 million tons of sugar, the Brazilian central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow but the MIX increased significantly, India's monsoon precipitation was higher than normal, and Brazil's sugar exports in June increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. 3.3 Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509 closed at 14,250 yuan/ton (+1.86%) during the day and 14,320 yuan/ton (+0.49%) at night. The spot prices of cotton in different regions increased to varying degrees. The cotton spot market was generally quiet, and the cotton yarn market had potential restocking and speculative demand [11][12]. - **News**: ICE cotton futures rose slightly, supported by the expectation of a trade agreement but limited by the strong US dollar and average weekly export sales data [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. 3.4 Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The egg 2508 contract closed at 3,462 yuan/500 kilograms (+0.14%), and the egg 2510 contract closed at 3,371 yuan/500 kilograms (-1.40%). The spot prices of eggs in different regions increased [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. 3.5 Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The spot prices of hogs in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong decreased, while the futures prices of hog contracts such as 2509, 2511, and 2601 increased. The trading volume and open interest of futures contracts changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Market Logic**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, and the focus is on reserve policies. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is facing a situation of mixed long and short factors. The oil market is expected to have an upward trend in the fourth quarter but is currently subject to multiple constraints. The sugar market may continue to decline. The cotton market has potential downside risks. The egg market is in a bottom - building phase with limited short - term rebound space. The pig market has limited downside space in the short term but faces supply and hedging pressure in the medium term [3][4][9][12][15][18][21] Summary by Category Soybean/Materials - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, US soybeans continued to rebound, driven by the rise in US soybean oil and favorable US agricultural trade agreements. However, good North American weather limited the upside. Domestic soybean meal futures followed the rise of US soybeans, with spot prices increasing by 40 yuan/ton. The soybean import cost remained stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations and new supply - side variables [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is fluctuating, and the overall supply of soybeans or protein is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has multiple factors at play. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production data showed mixed trends. Indonesia is studying the possibility of increasing the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%. China and Australia are close to reaching a rapeseed purchase agreement. On Thursday, domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the overall commodity sentiment was positive [6][7] - **Market Situation**: The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply have raised the annual operating center of oils. However, there are still negative factors as Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production is at a neutral level from July to September, inventory may remain stable, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current high valuation and multiple constraints suggest a volatile outlook [9] Sugar - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong and volatile trend. The London ICE sugar contract had a certain amount of delivery. Domestic sugar spot prices were mostly stable, with some processing sugar mills lowering their prices [11] - **Trading Strategy**: China is in a good window for sugar imports, and there may be increased import pressure in the second half of the year. The current market situation is contrary to the theoretical price difference trend, and if the external market does not rebound significantly, the sugar price may continue to decline [12] Cotton - **Important Information**: On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise. China's textile and clothing exports in June 2025 showed a slight year - on - year decline but a month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to June increased year - on - year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the cotton price has rebounded. The downstream consumption is average, and the expected issuance of sliding - scale import quotas from July to August is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Egg - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, with stable supply, low inventory, and increased purchasing intention from downstream traders [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Due to limited capacity clearance, the seasonal rebound of egg prices has been delayed. The current spot price is in a bottom - building phase, but the short - term rebound space is limited. For the near - term contracts, time is not favorable for long positions, and for the far - term contracts, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18] Pig - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices generally fell on the previous day, with sufficient supply from farmers and insufficient market digestion [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot pig price has rebounded, indicating a seasonal reduction in supply. The second - fattening space still exists, which provides some support. In the short term, there may be room for long positions, but in the medium term, supply delay and hedging pressure need to be considered [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal futures market is showing a strong upward trend, but the continuous upward space for US soybeans is limited, so the upward space for soybean meal is also expected to be limited. Given the large subsequent export pressure from Brazil and the good weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas, the rebound space for the futures market is also expected to be limited [7]. - The fundamental situation of rapeseed meal has changed little recently. Due to concerns about future supply and the current price already reflecting potential supply shortages, it is expected that rapeseed meal will not show a significantly strong trend. The narrowing space for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited, and after this round of price increases, rapeseed meal may still face some pressure, with the price difference expected to widen overall [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend. Although there was no clear driving factor, the previous sharp decline had fully reflected the negative factors. After a marginal improvement in demand, the domestic soybean meal futures market also showed a significant increase, mainly driven by cost factors. The domestic rapeseed meal futures market also rose significantly, influenced by the increase in soybean meal prices and concerns about future supply shortages due to Canada's tariff increase on Chinese steel [4]. - The monthly price difference of domestic soybean meal futures showed a strengthening trend, while rapeseed meal remained strongly supported. Overall, the market is still worried about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, but the current prices have already fully reflected these concerns, making further price increases difficult [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet is generally negative. Although US soybean exports were lowered, soybean crushing was increased, resulting in a slight increase in ending stocks. As of the week ending July 13, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans reached 70%. As of the week ending July 10, the export inspection volume of old US soybeans was 147,000 tons. The soybean crushing data for June in the US was good, with the NOPA's soybean crushing volume reaching 185.709 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [5]. - **South America**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has been relatively slow, and the overall selling progress is at a historically low level for this period. Recently, the selling progress has continued to slow down, and price pressure is starting to show. The recent soybean crushing volume in Brazil has decreased. Although the soybean crushing volume in April, as reported by abiove, was relatively good, the crushing profit remained relatively low. Due to large Chinese purchases, the domestic crushing profit in Brazil has weakened. In this context, Brazil may further increase its soybean exports [5]. - **Argentina**: The domestic soybean crushing volume in Argentina may improve in the future. Although the previous crushing volume decreased due to capacity constraints, the prices of terminal products have begun to stabilize, and soybean exports may increase [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market for soybean meal remains relatively loose. The operating rate of oil mills has continued to increase, leading to sufficient market supply and increased提货量. Inventory has gradually accumulated, but the overall spot market transactions have been average, and the market's acceptance of current prices is also average. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. The soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, an increase of 210,900 tons from the previous week, or 3.31%, and a year-on-year increase of 661,400 tons, or 11.18%. The soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, an increase of 63,800 tons from the previous week, or 7.76%, and a year-on-year decrease of 333,100 tons, or 27.32% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has recently shown a gradual weakening trend. Although the operating rate of oil mills has decreased, the overall supply remains sufficient. With the decline in demand and the high level of granular rapeseed meal, there is still supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty about the future supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, demand has also weakened, and there is still some pressure in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate [6]. Macro Analysis - The Sino-US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market has not received clear information. Due to the lack of clear macro guidance, the market continues to be concerned about the uncertainty of future supply. Although there are still many uncertainties in international trade, as the market gradually stabilizes, macro disturbances are decreasing. However, since China's long-term demand for US soybeans remains high, the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term, especially in the absence of macro guidance [7]. Trading Strategies - **Single Position**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct a reverse spread on RM91 [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall weather for US soybeans is suitable, but there is a trend of high - temperature and dryness in Kansas in the second week, which needs further observation. Brazilian discounts have slightly declined but are still expected to be firm. The domestic market is in a inventory - building cycle, with the basis expected to fluctuate at a low level. The import cost is expected to support the 101 contract, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with a focus on buying on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The excellent - good rate of US soybeans has risen to 70%, higher than last year and market expectations, and the weather will be normal in the next two weeks. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply reduction in July and August is expected to be over one million tons. The pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September, and the ship - booking from October to January is slow [7][8]. Demand - Pig and poultry farming are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and提货 is at a high level. Wheat has replaced corn in some areas, reducing the demand for protein. Recently, the trading volume of soybean meal has increased at low prices [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory - building cycle; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. Price and Spread - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 16th, in Dalian it was - 37, in Rizhao - 157, in Tianjin - 57, in Zhangjiagang - 157 (down 9), in Dongguan - 177, in Zhanjiang - 127, and in Fangcheng - 137. The rapeseed meal spot basis was - 53 (up 2). The M9 - M1 spread was - 34, M9 - RM9 was 3, and RM9 - 1 was 344. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 324, and the futures price difference of the main contract was also provided [6][7]. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1322, the futures crushing profit was 265 yuan/ton (down 5), and the import soybean futures gross profit was also mentioned. The CNF premium of imported soybeans was shown in the chart [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, but in the long - term, the cotton market will be in a supply - surplus pattern, and cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating within a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is maintained [5] - The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of July 11, India's new - season cotton sown area was 9.3 million hectares, about 2.1% less than the same period last year. In May 2025, US wholesalers' clothing and clothing fabric sales were $14.005 billion, up 8.11% year - on - year and 1.94% month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report was bearish, and the 25/26 global cotton market will be in a supply - loose pattern. The USDA raised the forecast of US cotton production, and the US cotton balance sheet is unlikely to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and weather disturbances support the recent rise of Zhengzhou cotton. However, domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, and new cotton is growing well. The weak off - season demand restricts the upward space of cotton prices, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.10%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: ICRA expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season [3] Market Analysis - International: The market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 season. The long - term downward pressure on raw sugar remains, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [4] - Domestic: The fast sales of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory support the spot price. However, the rebound of import profit and expected import increase will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,242 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.38%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Market News: The price of imported wood pulp showed a weakening trend, with some softwood pulp prices falling and some hardwood pulp prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year. High port inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: Paper pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak, and domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season. The planned increase in finished paper production capacity has not led to a significant increase in demand, and terminal demand is expected to improve only slightly in the second half of the year [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and peanuts show a slightly strong and volatile trend, but in the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is likely to be loose [1][2][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soybean View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2507 contract yesterday was 4179.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A07 + 121, down 30 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market remained stable on July 16 [1] - Market Situation: The current domestic soybeans are in the transition period between old and new crops. Tight short - term supply due to the digestion of old stocks is offset by the expected abundant supply in the long - term from increased imports and good growth of new crops. The demand side has short - term support but also faces constraints [2] - **Strategy** - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8232.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.49%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8720.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK10 - 32.00, down 40.00 (-500.00%) from the previous day. Market quotes were generally stable, and the trading was in a stalemate [3] - Market Situation: Short - term supply is tight due to factors such as low cold - storage inventory liquidity and uneven regional supply. However, the expected supply will increase with the stable growth of the new - season planting area and good growth [3][4] - **Strategy** - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [3]