Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, may maintain a pattern of fluctuating slightly upward. The short - term view of crude oil 2506 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Crude Oil Market Analysis - **Supply - side Changes**: After OPEC+ decided on compensatory production cuts for over - producing Kazakhstan and Iraq, the supply - side expectations of crude oil were revised. The US Treasury's sanctions on Iran to limit its oil exports to zero also adjusted the expected increase in crude oil supply [5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The sanctions on Iran intensified the conflict between the US and Iran, strengthening the premium boost of geopolitical factors on crude oil [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: After US President Trump stated that he had no intention of dismissing the Fed Chairman, the risk appetite of the global financial market was restored, leading to a slight rebound in international crude oil futures prices [5]. - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 2.15% at 498 yuan per barrel [5].

原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 2.15% 。欧佩克在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计 划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止 4 月 17 日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量 481 座，比前周增加 1 座；比 去年同期减少 30 座。短期继续看跌油价，但同时关注低油价给与美国制裁委内瑞拉和伊朗的空间。 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指小幅波动，商贸零售板块领涨，传媒板块领跌，全市成交额 1.12 万亿元，其中 IH2505 上涨 0.07% ， IF2505 下跌 0.12% ， IC2505 下跌 0.34% ， IM2505 上涨 0.01% 。资金方面， 4 月 21 日融资余额增 加 57.27 亿元至 17984.42 亿元。关税对市场影响程度有所下降，不过中美双方的关税争端仍在不断的交涉 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions and Oil Prices - The criticism from President Trump towards Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has caused volatility in financial markets, leading to a decline in oil prices due to concerns over economic growth and fuel demand [1] - As of April 21, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by $1.60 to $63.08 per barrel, a decrease of 2.47%, while Brent crude oil dropped by $1.70 to $66.26 per barrel, a decline of 2.50% [1] - Overall market sentiment towards oil remains bearish, driven by lowered demand expectations and a bleak global economic outlook [1] Group 2: Institutional Soft Power and Global Trust - The uncertainty in U.S. policies, particularly Trump's tariff strategies, is eroding the institutional soft power of the U.S. financial governance system, impacting the credibility of the Federal Reserve [2] - The dollar index has fallen to a 15-month low, and U.S. stock markets have experienced significant declines due to this trust crisis, which has also affected the oil market [2] - The investment willingness of shale oil companies is being suppressed, with half of Texas oil firms facing survival challenges at oil prices below $50 per barrel [2] Group 3: Energy Diplomacy and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. is utilizing energy exports, including 18 million barrels of ethane and 651 million barrels of propane, as leverage to compel Asian countries like Indonesia and India to make multi-billion dollar purchases [2] - This strategy aims to balance trade deficits through energy exports, effectively reshaping international trade rules [2] - China's strong countermeasures and Japan's refusal to yield highlight the limitations of unilateral strategies in the current geopolitical landscape [2] Group 4: Systemic Challenges in the Energy Sector - Trump's tariff policies are creating a "decision fog" that is undermining the systemic resilience of the global energy market, with significant crises in the shale oil industry and financial pressures on traditional oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia [3] - Fitch predicts that Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit will expand to 4.1%, indicating a collapse of systemic coordination within the energy sector [3] - The bond financing proposals from Dubai National Bank are seen as emergency measures to restore system stability [3] Group 5: Ideological Struggles and Value Recognition - China's strategy of "equal consultation + reciprocal countermeasures" is aimed at building a new value recognition system to counter unilateralism [3] - This ideological battle is reflected in the oil market through diverging demand expectations, with Asian countries forced to procure oil while U.S. shale investments decline [3] - The IMF's assessment that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $90 per barrel to balance its budget serves as an economic benchmark for this value recognition conflict [3] Group 6: Strategic Forecasting and Energy Transition - The current crisis is fundamentally a competition of strategic foresight in the context of an impending energy revolution, exposing vulnerabilities in the traditional energy system [4] - The challenges faced by U.S. shale oil companies and Saudi economic reforms highlight the strategic fragility of the existing energy framework [4] - Predictions of an industry consolidation wave driven by strategic foresight suggest that stronger players will reshape the industry ecosystem through mergers and acquisitions [4]

铜： 夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 贵金属 ：黄金持续刷新新高。特朗普在其社交媒体平台 Truth Social 表示，"谈判与成功的黄金法则： 拥有黄金者制定规则"，即谁有黄金谁占主导，引发市场猜想。同时，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并 研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，动摇市场信心。随着贸易战扰动加剧，引发一系列的连锁反 应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定 性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。面对未来通胀上行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口，但长端美 债价格的波动，令市场对美联储重启 QE 和提前降息的预期升温。考虑今年美国国债到期和债务压力进 一步加剧，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体仍将维持强势。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 首席点评：美股全线回落，特朗普呼吁降息 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing backlash from "reciprocal tariffs," leading to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, resulting in a significant drop in the stock market [1] - Major U.S. stock indices, including the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones, have all fallen over 2% [1] - The latest data shows a decline in the Conference Board's leading economic index for March, recording a -0.7% change, the largest drop since October 2023 [8] Energy Sector - WTI crude oil futures dropped over 3%, currently priced at $62.28 per barrel, while Brent crude fell below $65 per barrel [3][4] - The energy market is reflecting a broader trend of declining prices, with NYMEX WTI down 2.70% and ICE Brent down 2.68% [4] Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia, have seen significant declines, with Tesla down nearly 7% and Nvidia down over 5% [4][5] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index has also dropped over 1%, with companies like Meituan and JD.com falling more than 4% [5][6] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that economic growth may slow unless this occurs [9] - Citigroup predicts the Federal Reserve will implement its next rate cut in June, maintaining a forecast of a 125 basis point cut by 2025 [7] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that while short-term inflation expectations are rising, long-term expectations remain stable, suggesting lower rates in the next 12-18 months [10] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has faced a significant drop, falling over 1% to a near three-year low, attributed to pressures surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - Trump's tariff policy has led to significant fluctuations in overseas stock markets, suppressing market risk appetite. However, domestic monetary policy tools have sufficient room for adjustment, and institutions such as Central Huijin have increased their holdings of ETFs to stabilize the market. Policy encourages long - term capital to enter the market. [2][4] - The economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter due to tariffs. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. [6] - There are differences between the net long positions of foreign gold management funds and the holdings of gold ETFs, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - The prices of various metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and tariffs, showing different trends. [10][11][40] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of major indexes, with a decline in trading volume. Macro news includes national measures to stabilize the stock market and real estate, and Trump - related tariff and interest - rate remarks. The financing amount decreased, and the overnight Shibor rate increased. [2] - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields of major indexes are provided, along with the basis ratios of stock index futures. [3] - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, overseas stock market fluctuations suppress risk appetite. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" after the tariff impact weakens. The strategy is to buy IM long - positions on dips. [4] Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL and T rose, while TF and TS fell. Fiscal revenue data shows a decline in tax revenue and an increase in non - tax revenue. Trump called for the Fed to lower interest rates. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection. [5][6] - Economic growth in the first quarter was good, but there may be pressure in the second quarter. Interest rates are in a game stage, expected to remain volatile in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy signals from the end - of - April meeting and economic data. [6] Precious Metals - The prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold rose, while Shanghai silver and COMEX silver fell. Trump expressed confidence in a tariff agreement, and the VIX index declined. The net long positions of foreign gold management funds decreased, while the holdings of global gold ETFs increased significantly. There is a risk of a short - term pullback in gold prices. [7] - It is expected that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance in May. It is recommended to hold existing gold long - positions, and the cost - effectiveness of opening new long - positions is low. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see. [8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated slightly higher. Exchange inventories decreased, and the spot import was slightly in deficit. The LME market shifted from premium to discount. The scrap copper supply was tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased. Trump's statement and the approaching Politburo meeting may bring positive sentiment. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate. [10] Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the spot premium increased. The demand for photovoltaic - related aluminum is strong. The impact of tariffs is limited, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to be supported by the decline in inventory, with the possibility of a wider spread between months. [11] Zinc - Last week, zinc prices continued to decline. Domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends, and the basis and spread changed. The supply is expected to be loose, and downstream procurement is expected to weaken. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate at a low level, and there is a risk of further decline in the medium - term. [12][13] Lead - Last week, lead prices rebounded after a decline. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the basis and spread strengthened slightly. The supply is generally loose, and the demand is stable. In the short - term, prices may fluctuate strongly, and in the medium - term, they are expected to fluctuate in a range. [14] Nickel - Last week, nickel prices recovered due to the alleviation of tariff concerns. The supply is expected to increase, the demand for high - priced nickel is limited, and the cost support may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. [15] Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand has improved but its sustainability is uncertain. The inventory has decreased. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. [16] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The impact of tariffs has faded, and the price has entered the bottom - cost area. Production has decreased, and inventory accumulation has slowed. The supply and demand may weaken, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. [18] Alumina - The alumina index fell. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis was positive, and the overseas price was stable. The supply is still in surplus, but there are more production cuts recently. It is recommended to wait and see. [19] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price was stable, and the basis increased. The raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The sales were slow, and the price decline was limited by cost inversion. [20] Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions increased. The spot price also decreased. The "tariff issue" has a great impact on the overall commodity price, and the demand for steel is affected. The supply and demand of steel have different trends, and the inventory is decreasing. The market shows a pattern of "strong reality, weak expectation". [22][23] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased. The overseas mine shipments were stable, the arrival volume increased, the demand may weaken, and the inventory decreased. In the short - term, it will wait for consolidation, and in the later stage, there is downward pressure on the price. [24] Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, the sales were weak, and the inventory decline slowed. The spot price of soda ash was stable, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass provides some support, and it is expected to run weakly. [25][26] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon continued to decline, and the price of ferrosilicon also decreased. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The cost of manganese ore may continue to decline, and there is a risk of further price decline. For ferrosilicon, the production is decreasing, but the demand may also weaken. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [27][28][29] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon accelerated its decline. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. Downstream industries have over - supply, and the production of industrial silicon is still expanding. It is recommended to wait and see or follow the short - term trend. [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The global financial market is volatile, and the decline in rubber prices has released most of the risks. The bulls expect price increases due to production - cut expectations, while the bears are bearish due to weak demand. The operating rate of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory increased. It is expected to fluctuate, and short - term operations are recommended. [36][37][38] Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures increased. European oil product inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in refined oil inventories. It is believed that the oil price has bottomed out, and investors are advised to take profits on dips and wait for a turning point. [40][41][42] Methanol - The 09 - contract price of methanol increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the 9 - 1 spread and the PP - 3MA spread. [43] Urea - The 09 - contract price of urea increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply will remain high, and the demand will be strong. The inventory is expected to decrease, and it is suitable to go long on dips, with a positive - spread strategy for the 9 - 1 spread. [44] Styrene - The price of the 06 - contract of styrene increased, while the spot price decreased. The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to short on rallies. [45] PVC - The price of the PVC09 contract decreased slightly. The cost is stable, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the medium - term, the valuation center will continue to decline. [46][47] Ethylene Glycol - The price of the EG09 contract increased, while the spot price decreased. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The inventory is decreasing, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industry chain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. [48] PTA - The price of the PTA09 contract increased, and the spot price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. [49] p - Xylene - The price of the PX09 contract increased, and the CFR price also increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by the downstream. The inventory is decreasing, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see. [50][51] Polyethylene (PE) - The price of PE decreased. The supply will increase in the second quarter, the demand is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term. [52] Polypropylene (PP) - The price of PP increased slightly. The cost is supported, the supply will increase, and the demand will decline seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price mainly declined over the weekend. The terminal demand is limited, and the price may decline in the north and remain stable in the south. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds. [55] Eggs - The domestic egg price was mainly stable over the weekend, with a slight decline in some areas. The supply is mostly sufficient, and the demand is average. The price may rise slightly and then stabilize, with a risk of decline later. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals. [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean meal price increased locally over the weekend, with a trend of inventory accumulation in the future. The开机率 is expected to increase. The price of U.S. soybeans is affected by weather and tariffs. The cost of imported soybeans is expected to rise steadily, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in a range. [57][58] Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in April, and the production also increased. The price of crude oil has an impact on the valuation of oils and fats. The supply of oils and fats is increasing seasonally, and there is a risk of price decline. If the macro - economy stabilizes, there may be support. [59][60] Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is relatively resistant to decline. In the short - term, the price may fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline if the weather improves. [61][62] Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price increased slightly, and the basis was positive. The operating rate of spinning and weaving mills decreased, and the inventory increased. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price trend depends on downstream consumption. [63][64]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 油价走弱，金价续涨 研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干措施，要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。据新华社，会议指 出，加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳就业稳外贸，着力促消费扩内需，着力优结构提质量，做强国内大循环，推动经济高质 量发展。中国商务部回应美方海事、物流和造船领域 301 调查。商务部发言人称，中方敦促美方尊重事实和多边经贸规 则，遵守市场经济和公平竞争原则，停止"甩锅推责"，尽早纠正错误做法。中方将密切关注美方有关动向，并将坚决采取 必要措施维护自身权益。 重点品种： 股指，原油，贵金属 原油 ： SC 夜盘上涨 0.33% 。欧佩克周三在网站上发布消息说，已收到伊拉克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新 计划，以弥补以前超过配额的产量。据计算，最新计划要求七个国家从现在到 2026 年 6 月期间，每月额外减少日产量 36.9 万桶。根据最新补偿计划，从本月到 2026 年 6 月，每月减产量将从每日 19.6 万桶到 52 万桶不等，高于此前的每日 18.9 万 桶至 43.5 万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View - The reference view of crude oil 2506 is to run strongly, with short - term being volatile, medium - term being volatile and weakening, and intraday being volatile and strengthening. The core logic is the escalation of US - Iran conflict and the reduction of supply expectations in the crude oil market [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For crude oil 2506, short - term (within a week) is volatile, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is volatile and weakening, and intraday is volatile and strengthening. The reference view is to run strongly [1]. Price and Market Performance - Due to the short - term positive factors, on Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices rose significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 3.40% to 495.3 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and strengthening trend on Friday [5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump reduced the intensity of the tariff war, releasing positive signals and increasing the risk appetite of the financial market. The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran's energy, escalating the US - Iran conflict. OPEC+ required Kazakhstan and Iraq to compensate for the insufficient crude oil production cuts, reducing the future supply expectations of the crude oil market [5].

首席点评：金银回调，油价续涨 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 李强指出，在政策制定实施和政府工作的方方面面，都要有稳预期的意识，特别要结合形势变化，提高 政策针对性、有效性。要讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出 手，对预期形成积极影响。欧洲央行如期下调利率 25 个基点，为自去年 6 月以来第七次下调利率。欧 央行行长拉加德表示，经济前景笼罩在极大的不确定性中，经济下行风险有所增加。美国 3 月新屋开工 数下降 11.4% ，创一年来最大降幅，高房价和抵押贷款利率高企导致需求疲软，使得建筑商对破土动 工缺乏信心。美国能源部备忘录报道称，特朗普政府考虑砍掉将近 100 亿美元清洁能源资金，可能会在 氢能源、碳捕捉、 ETC 领域削减（政府）资金支持。 重点品种： 玻璃、原油、 贵金属 玻璃 ：周四，玻璃期货延续弱势，市场情绪仍有分歧，商品普遍受到关税冲击导致的对于内需消费的 观望情绪主导。玻璃自身目前库存缓慢去化，市场亦步亦趋。中期角度，目前经过 2 个月的玻璃累库， 等待开工后采购需求推动消化玻璃存量库存。本周玻璃生产企业库存 5624 万重箱， ...