2025 年 7 月 7 日 弱现实与强成本博弈 镍价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 021-68555105 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 021-68555105 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 021-68555105 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 镍半年报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/17 ⚫ 上半年回顾，宏观叙事摇摆，扰动因素频发。年初， 市场对美国滞涨前景的交易反反复复，乐观预期与 悲观预期交互。二季度关税风波席卷全球，主要经济 体贸易壁垒高企，外贸谈判一波三折。产业上，镍矿 紧缺逻辑贯穿全局，镍矿价格持续攀升，菲律宾、印 尼两大主要镍矿供应国均有政策扰动。镍铁厂上下 承压，成本压力凸显，市场陆续传出印 ...

021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 锌半年报 锌市下半场 浪逐低行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/23 2025 年 7 月 7 日 要点 要点 要点 宏观面看，下半年关税政策将继续抑制美国经济增长， "大美丽法案" 通过增加财政刺激缓解经济下行压力， 但或带来二次通胀。美联储仍有小幅降息预期，美元维 持中枢下行通道。抢出口及以旧换新政策效应减弱，经 济增速预计放缓，但全年经济目标有望实现，以存量政 策落实为主，增量政策审慎有序。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The negative feedback in the industrial chain has not ended [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Situation and Policy Changes - On June 10, Indonesia's Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the revocation of the mining licenses of four nickel companies in Raja Ampat, Papua, due to environmental concerns [3] - On July 2, 2025, Indonesia's Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supplies, which is expected to support prices and increase government revenue [4] Negative Feedback Reaching the Mine End - From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, mine - end profits are still substantial. With mine supply at a seasonal peak, there is room for mine prices to fall [6] - As of July 4, the premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore was $25/wet ton, a week - on - week decrease of $2/wet ton. Due to losses in the NPI - stainless steel industry chain, pyrometallurgical ore prices are under pressure. Hydrometallurgical ore prices are relatively stable as MHP still has profits and the Qingshan Chenxi project is about to be put into production [8] NPI Production Cuts - The latest transaction price of NPI is 910 yuan/nickel point. The previously circulated price of 895 yuan/nickel point had no transactions. NPI production cuts have occurred in China and non - free mine smelters in Indonesia due to increased losses. With no profit recovery in the downstream stainless steel sector, there is still pressure on NPI and pyrometallurgical ore prices [15] Ice - Nickel Production - Since March, ice - nickel has been in a loss state, and current production mainly meets downstream rigid demand. The break - even line for Indonesian ice - nickel corresponds to a nickel price of around $15,000. If Indonesian NPI starts to lose money, attention should be paid to NPI conversion to ice - nickel, which may bring supply pressure [21] MHP Production and New Projects - The tailings dam collapse event in late March was resolved at the end of April, and MHP production has recovered quickly. MHP maintains a profitable state with a cost equivalent to LME nickel price of $13,000/metal ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of Qingshan's newly launched Chenxi project with a capacity of 67,000 metal tons [25] Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - In the first half of the year, the consumption of ternary precursors was lower than expected, and the surplus of sulfuric acid nickel was reflected in the increase of refined nickel production. Losses in non - integrated downstream electrowon nickel have a negative feedback on the sulfuric acid nickel sector, and prices are under downward pressure [33] Domestic Electrowon Nickel and Policy - The 50,000 - ton production capacities of Indonesia's Eternity Nickel Industry and Dingxing Nickel Industry are still in the climbing stage, which will temporarily digest the new pressure of MHP. Domestic non - integrated electrowon nickel is in a loss state, and electrowon nickel production has decreased slightly [42] Stainless Steel Market - After Tsingshan gave up price support the week before last, the spot price of stainless steel collapsed, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was transferred to the terminal. In July, the production plan of 3 - series stainless steel was 1.62 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease but a 2% year - on - year increase. After production cuts, stainless steel profits have not recovered [45] Ternary Precursor Market - In the first half of the year, the cumulative production of domestic ternary precursors was 399,300 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease, and nickel consumption in the new energy field was significantly lower than the initial expectation [47]

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 周二中央财经委召开会议，要求加大落后产能淘汰力度，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争。市场把本次会议理解为要推出新一轮供给侧改革 。但本 次会议的主要目标并不是在产业链上游推进供给侧改革 ，而是要在下游的制造环节反内卷。因此，价格的上涨或并不具备持续性。 5 月各线房价环 比均回落，1-6 月 top100 房企总销售额同比下降 11.8%，降幅比 上月有所扩大，显示目前的房地产市场仍处于筑底的过程中 。5 月的经济数据整体 略不及预期，6 月的 PMI 数据环比有所改善。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹产量有所上升，厂库下降，社库增加，总库存迹象下 降，表观需求环比略有回升，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计 将会小幅回升。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 。从技术上看，期价维持震荡偏强的走势，目前已经突破了上方布林带上轨的阻力 。 操作建议： 维持观望，回调之后可短线做多，追涨须谨慎。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/07 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 变化 -5 -23 ...

Group 1 - The ecological system of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is diverse yet fragile, necessitating a focus on ecological protection and maximizing ecological functions [3][4][5] - Qinghai is a resource-rich province with significant responsibilities for national ecological security and sustainable development, particularly in protecting the source of the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang rivers [4][6] - The development of circular economy is essential for improving resource utilization efficiency while maintaining ecological balance, particularly in the context of salt lake resource development [10][11] Group 2 - The Chaka Salt Lake is a major strategic resource for Qinghai, with a total area of 5,856 square kilometers and a total salt resource reserve of 60 billion tons, making it the largest salt lake in China [10][11] - Qinghai's potassium fertilizer production is projected to reach 7.49 million tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 4.8%, while lithium carbonate production is expected to reach 135,000 tons, a 22.3% increase [12] - The Maerdang Hydropower Station has implemented fish passage devices to protect biodiversity and has released 310,000 fish since its construction, contributing to the ecological balance of the Yellow River basin [12] Group 3 - The development of the circular economy in Qinghai includes various industries such as salt lake chemicals, oil and gas chemicals, and new materials, all emphasizing low carbon emissions [16] - The establishment of a zero-carbon industry park in Golmud is aimed at enhancing the green development of the local economy, with a focus on wind and solar energy solutions [17] - The integration of advanced technologies in the lead smelting project in the Chaka Salt Lake area demonstrates a commitment to environmental protection and resource recycling [15]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国住建部称将更大力度推动房地产市场止 跌回稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-07 宏观策略（黄金） 美国财长贝森特：贸易谈判的最后阶段出现僵局 周五金价震荡微跌，美国独立日休市海外市场交易较为清淡， 市场聚焦关税暂缓期到期后美国对等关税落地情况，9 日前仍有 谈判在推进，主要是欧盟和日本还未与美国达成协议。 宏观策略（股指期货） 住建部：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 综 合 近期股市情绪持续升温，新题材涌现，使得市场顶住高估压力 持续上涨。这种单边堰塞湖的状态，后续需要基本面回升来夯 实行情。此外海外关税扰动仍不可忽视 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 展望下周，预计资金面仍然偏松，债市做多动能继续积累，但 长端品种突破尚需等待。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） Mysteel 数据：全国主要油厂大豆压榨预估调查统计 45Z 税收抵免通过，关注 7 月 8 日听证会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 6 月下旬重点钢企钢材库存量 1545 万吨 反内卷政策预期带动钢价偏强，基本面仍有支撑，五大品种库 存并未进一步累积。但随着 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June 2025 is at 49.7%, indicating a slight improvement but still within a downward trend [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.5%, showing continued expansion [1] - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggests increasing regulatory intensity to maintain ample liquidity and support key sectors [1] Manufacturing Sector - The production and new orders indices are at 51.0% and 50.2%, respectively, reflecting a rise of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The purchasing volume index increased to 50.2%, up by 2.6 percentage points [1] - Price indices for major raw materials show a rebound, with purchasing and factory gate price indices at 48.4% and 46.2%, rising by 1.5 percentage points [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction business activity index is at 52.8%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating high activity in civil engineering [1] - The service sector business activity index is stable at 50.1%, with some industries experiencing high activity while others see a decline [1] - The business activity expectation index is in a high range, suggesting optimism among enterprises [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 300 billion MLF operation on June 25, with a net injection of 118 billion, marking four consecutive months of excess renewal [1] - The monetary policy is expected to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth in the second half of the year, with MLF likely to continue increasing [1] - The focus is on supporting private and small enterprises, revitalizing existing resources, and stabilizing the real estate market [1]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 39亿元重大资产重组完成，株冶集团（600961.SH）的经营业绩持续向好。 7月4日晚间，株冶集团发布业绩预告，公司预计上半年实现的归母净利润为5.6亿元至6.50亿元，同比增 长超过50%；预计实现扣非净利润5.70亿元至6.60亿元，同比增长幅度超过80%。 重组后净利持续快速增长 株冶集团的经营业绩继续快速增长。 根据最新发布的业绩预告，今年上半年，株冶集团预计实现归母净利润5.60亿元到 6.50亿元，与上年同 期相比，将增加约1.89亿元到2.79亿元，同比增长50.97%到 75.23%。公司预计实现扣非净利润5.70亿元 到6.60亿元，与上年同期相比，将增加约2.55亿元到3.45亿元，同比增长80.97%到109.55%。 今年一季度，公司经营业绩已经表现为快速增长。前三个月，公司实现的营业收入、归母净利润分别为 48.03亿元、2.77亿元，同比增长8.50%、74.07%，扣非净利润为2.83亿元，同比增长112.94%。 对比半年度业绩预告及一季度报告，二季度，公司预计归母净利润、扣非净利润分别为2.83亿元至3.73 亿元、2.87亿元至3.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daoshi Technology is making a significant overseas investment of approximately 1.183 billion yuan to establish a copper wet smelting plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, aimed at expanding production capacity and securing resource supply [1][2][3]. Investment and Expansion - The company plans to invest in a project that will produce 30,000 tons of cathode copper and 2,710 tons of cobalt intermediates, with a project cycle of 18 months [2][3]. - This investment is part of Daoshi Technology's long-term strategic layout in the Congo, a region rich in copper and cobalt resources, which will enhance the stability and security of raw material supply [2][3]. Production Capacity and Growth - Daoshi Technology's cathode copper production is projected to reach 40,900 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 32%, marking a historical high [1][3]. - The company is also expected to produce 1,743 tons of cobalt intermediates in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 227% [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Daoshi Technology reported a revenue of 7.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, and a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 662.33%, ending two consecutive years of profit decline [5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas market revenue, which grew 3.82 times over the past three years, with the revenue share rising from 16.13% to 65.8% [6]. Research and Development - Daoshi Technology has invested over 1.228 billion yuan in R&D from 2020 to 2024, resulting in accelerated technology transformation [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 64 patents in carbon materials, 222 in lithium battery materials, and 104 in ceramic materials [6].