Policy Direction - The long-term policy anchor of "housing is for living, not for speculation" stabilizes the market, ensuring housing returns to its residential essence and mitigating excessive financialization and speculation [2][3] - In the next five years, both central and local governments will implement diversified regulations on land supply, financial credit, and taxation to promote a more rational real estate market [2][3] Market Supply and Demand - The real estate market's supply-demand relationship will undergo significant changes influenced by demographic, economic, and social factors [4][5] - On the demand side, an aging population will increase the demand for senior housing, while younger generations will focus on personalized and high-quality housing, with smart and eco-friendly homes becoming popular [4][5] - On the supply side, land supply regulation will lead to more reasonable housing supply, prompting developers to adjust strategies to meet market demand, particularly in high-quality housing [4][5] Technology Application - The application of emerging technologies will enhance operational efficiency and service quality in the real estate industry [6][7] - Big data analysis will help better understand market demands and customer preferences, providing a basis for corporate decision-making [6][7] Regional Differentiation - There are significant differences in the real estate market across different regions, with first-tier and some second-tier cities having mature markets and strict policies, while third and fourth-tier cities have substantial potential but face challenges like population outflow [9] - Future development in third and fourth-tier cities may focus on unique characteristics, such as tourism and industrial real estate, supported by policy [9] Transformation Direction and Key Features - The real estate industry is expected to transition towards a stable, healthy, and diversified direction over the next five years [11] - Key features include normalized policy regulation, optimized supply-demand structure, widespread technology application, and ongoing regional differentiation [11] - Real estate companies should align with policy directions, monitor market demand changes, enhance technological innovation, and develop strategies based on regional characteristics [11]

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The domestic housing market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30% from their peak, and some cities experiencing declines exceeding 60% [3][4] - Factors contributing to the long-term decline in housing prices include an oversupply of housing, with 120 million vacant units available, and a decreasing demand from younger generations due to an aging population [3][4] - Many cities have housing prices that are detached from local residents' incomes, indicating a potential return to more reasonable price levels [4] Group 2: Automotive Market - The automotive market is experiencing a price reduction trend, with domestic mid-range cars seeing price cuts of 20,000-30,000 yuan and foreign luxury brands reducing prices by nearly 90,000 yuan [6] - The decline in car prices is driven by an oversupply in the market, with both fuel and new energy vehicles competing for market share [6][7] - The stagnation or decline in middle-class incomes has led to reduced demand for vehicle upgrades, further intensifying the price competition among automotive brands [7] Group 3: Small Appliances Market - The small appliances sector is undergoing a long-term adjustment, with significant price reductions for products like rice cookers and air fryers, which have seen prices drop from several thousand yuan to one or two thousand yuan [9] - The rapid technological advancements in the small appliances industry lead to frequent new product launches, causing older models to be discounted [9] - A slowdown in income growth has resulted in decreased demand for small appliances, while e-commerce and live-streaming sales are driving prices below market rates, forcing traditional retailers to follow suit [9] Group 4: Pork Market - Pork prices have significantly decreased, dropping from 35-40 yuan per jin in 2020 to 16-17 yuan per jin currently, indicating a price halving [11] - The decline in pork prices is attributed to an oversupply in the market due to increased participation in pig farming, as well as a shift in consumer preference towards lower-fat meats [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite market concerns about consumer recovery, Zhang Kun remains optimistic and challenges the prevailing pessimistic expectations [1][2][3] - Zhang Kun's funds have shown a high turnover rate in hidden heavy stocks, with the E Fund Quality Enterprises Three-Year Fund completely changing its holdings compared to the end of last year [1][5] - New additions to the hidden heavy stock list for the first half of the year include Meituan-W, Beike-W, and SF Holding, while companies like Samsonite and Giant Bio have exited [2][6][7] Group 2 - The report indicates a significant divergence in stock market performance across sectors, with defense, banking, and non-ferrous metals performing well, while real estate, food and beverage, and coal lagged [2] - Zhang Kun argues that the current pessimistic expectations regarding domestic demand are debatable, citing a substantial portion of his funds' holdings in domestic demand-related assets [2][3] - The report highlights that consumer confidence has been affected by declining real estate prices and persistent downward pressure on prices, impacting consumer willingness to spend [3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun emphasizes that the increase in preventive savings among residents has partially crowded out consumer spending, and consumer confidence indices have shown a downward trend [3][4] - Data shows that per capita disposable income in China has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 6.4% from 2020 to 2024, while total household deposits have increased significantly [3][4] - Zhang Kun believes that the development of high-value-added industries will eventually lead to higher wages and improved living standards for the public, which will positively influence domestic demand [4]

Economic Overview - The GDP of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is expected to grow by 3.4% in Q1 2025, reflecting resilience amid external and internal challenges [1][12][11] - The economic performance shows significant differentiation among cities, with Huizhou leading at 6.6% growth, followed by Zhongshan and Dongguan at 5.5% and 5.0% respectively [2][12] Industrial Production - Industrial production has slowed down, primarily affecting the economy, with Shenzhen's industrial value-added growth at only 2.6% in January-February, a stark decline from over 9% in previous months [3][13] - Despite the overall slowdown, the new energy vehicle sector has shown remarkable growth, with BYD's production increasing by 109.5% [3][15] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continues to decline, with negative growth in most cities except for Guangzhou, which saw a 1% increase [4][17] - The secondary industry investment has sharply decreased, particularly in Dongguan and Zhuhai, reflecting cautious corporate investment behavior due to uncertain external demand [4][18] Consumer Market - The consumer market shows a weak recovery, with social retail sales in major cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen growing by 1.2% and 1.7% respectively, but still lagging behind the national average of 4% [5][22] - Factors such as declining automobile retail and high savings rates among the population are constraining consumer spending potential [5][35][36] Foreign Trade - The external trade landscape is marked by significant differentiation, with Guangdong's export growth declining by 12.7 percentage points to -4.3%, while cities like Guangzhou and Dongguan experienced positive growth [6][12] - Imports in the Greater Bay Area maintained a positive growth rate of 6.1%, indicating a shift towards a more balanced trade structure [6][12] Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to face challenges, but technology and domestic demand are seen as key variables for growth, with potential boosts from AI integration and tourism [7][11] - The demographic advantages, including a high birth rate and significant young population, are anticipated to convert into consumer spending power, supporting long-term economic growth [7][11][35]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of improvement in new orders, particularly in the second quarter, indicating potential recovery in performance in the latter half of the year [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 512.50 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.83 billion yuan, down 17.17% year-over-year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 263.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.61% year-over-year but an increase of 5.59% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit for Q2 was 5.80 billion yuan, down 14.65% year-over-year and 3.71% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of expectations [1]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 8.53%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, infrastructure revenue was 436.25 billion yuan, down 7.78% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 7.37%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - The company reported varied performance across sectors, with real estate and equipment manufacturing revenues increasing by 7.78% and 14.39% respectively, while design consulting saw a slight decline [2]. Order Intake - The company secured new orders totaling 1.11 trillion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 2.8% year-over-year, with significant growth in overseas new orders, which rose by 78.6% in Q2 [4]. - Q2 2025 new orders improved significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 20%, indicating a recovery trend [4]. Cost and Expenses - Financial expenses increased significantly, primarily due to higher interest expenses and reduced investment income from infrastructure projects, leading to an overall increase in the expense ratio [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 2.31%, down 0.31 percentage points year-over-year, with a cash flow pressure reflected in a negative operating cash flow of 79.6 billion yuan [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards due to increased competition and pressure on profit margins, projecting net profits of 23.8 billion yuan, 22.9 billion yuan, and 22.6 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The target price for A/H shares has been adjusted to 7.71 yuan and 5.50 HKD, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both A and H shares [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in September [1][2][4][10][80] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises in China showed marginal improvement, possibly related to the low base, but overall pressure remained. Manufacturing profits were the core driving force, with raw material manufacturing profits turning from decline to growth, and industries like steel and petroleum processing turning profitable, reflecting the stabilization of commodity prices and the effectiveness of supply - side reform [2][10][11][80] - The bond market may be suppressed by sentiment in the short term, but the report is consistently bullish on the bond market in September. The increasing economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, continuous central bank easing, and bank self - operated allocation demand will support the bond market. The peak of net government bond issuance this year has passed, and after September, the net issuance of government bonds may not exceed 25% of the annual plan, presenting a repair window for interest - rate bonds [2][4][10][80] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - In July 2025, the operating income of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and 2.3% from January to July. The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.5% year - on - year in July, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 pct compared to June. From January to July, profits decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing profits increased by 6.8% year - on - year in July, accelerating by 5.4 pct compared to June [11] - On August 28, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - quality Urban Development" was released, proposing to systematically promote the construction of "good houses" and complete communities [13] - On August 25 (Eastern Time), US President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Market bets on the Fed's policy easing continued to heat up, with traders expecting an over 80% probability of a rate cut in September [14] 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption: Moderate Growth - As of August 24, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 60,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 71,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. As of August 28, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 976.06 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [15] 3.2.2 Transportation: Continued Activity - As of August 24, the container throughput of ports was 6.775 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The postal express pick - up volume was 3.7 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 12.0%. The railway freight volume was 8.0868 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.5185 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 3.3% [22][23][29] 3.2.3 Operating Rates: Slight Monthly Decline but Year - on - Year Growth in the Infrastructure Chain - As of August 27, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 77.3%, a year - on - year increase of 2.8 pct. As of August 28, the average asphalt operating rate was 24.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [32] 3.2.4 Real Estate: Persistent Downturn - As of August 29, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.889 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [40] 3.2.5 Prices: Differentiated - As of August 29, the average pork wholesale price was 20.0 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 27.4% and a 2.7% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 4.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2% and an 11.1% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 791.5 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.3% and a 0.2% increase compared to four weeks ago [45][51] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets: Loose Funds, Slight Differentiation in the Bond Market - On August 29, overnight Shibor was 1.33%, down 2.50 BP from August 25. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year government bonds were 1.37%/1.63%/1.84%/2.14% respectively, with changes of - 1.1BP/ - 0.3BP/+5.7BP/+6.0BP compared to August 22 [56][61] 3.4 Institutional Behavior: Continuous Decline in the Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds for Interest - Rate Bonds - As of August 29, the estimated average duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds was about 5.1 years, a decrease of about 0.04 years compared to August 22. The estimated average duration of credit bond funds was about 2.8 years, a decrease of about 0.01 years compared to August 22 [76][77] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The report is bullish on the bond market in September. The economic downward pressure in the second half of the year, central bank easing, and bank self - operated allocation demand will support the bond market. The report expects the 10Y government bond yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and believes that the current 10Y government bond is highly cost - effective. It is expected that the 10Y government bond yield will return to around 1.65% in the next six months, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of national joint - stock banks will fall below 1.9%. Investors should cherish 5Y capital bonds with yields above 2% and 30Y government bonds [4][10][80]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In August, the PMI data showed a combination of "manufacturing at the bottom and non - manufacturing moderately recovering". Compared with the "double - weak" situation in July, the short - term economic downward risk may be alleviated. With the weakening of the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather, the continuous release of policy effects, and the influence of seasonal factors, the economy is expected to continue the recovery trend, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve month - on - month, which may weaken the downward driving force of long - term interest rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs August Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, continuing to expand. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - In terms of supply and demand, the production index was 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, with continuous expansion. The new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, with insufficient market demand. The new export order index was 47.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, with foreign demand hovering at a low level [2]. - In terms of prices, the purchase price index of major raw materials was 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, rising for three consecutive months and in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The ex - factory price index was 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, also rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest point this year. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI will continue to narrow, and the pressure on industrial product prices may be alleviated [2]. August Non - manufacturing - The service industry business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, reaching the highest point this year. Industries such as capital market services, railway transportation, and aviation transportation were in a high - level boom range, while industries such as retail and real estate had weak prosperity. The business activity expectation index was 57.0%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating that service enterprises were optimistic about the market [3]. - The construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, in the contraction range, mainly due to the impact of high - temperature and rainy weather. The business activity expectation index was 51.7%, slightly higher than the previous month. Looking forward, with the weakening of the weather impact and the release of policies, the economy may continue to recover, and the manufacturing PMI in September is expected to improve [4].

公 司 报 告 房地产 2025年08月31日 新城控股(601155.SH) 商业运营稳健，融资成本下行 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:14.83元 证券分析师 杨侃 投资咨询资格编号 S1060514080002 BQV514 事项： 公司公布2025年半年报，上半年实现营业收入221亿元，同比下降34.8%，归 母净利润8.9亿元，同比下降32.1%。 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】新城控股（601155.SH）*季报点评*利 润呈现增长，商业运行稳健*推荐20250430 平安观点： 公 司 半 年 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 YANGKAN034@pingan.com.cn 郑茜文 投资咨询资格编号 S1060520090003 ZHENGXIWEN239@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 119,174 | 88,999 | 61,943 | 44,103 | 32,813 | | YOY(%) | 3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on understanding the current low inflation and providing an outlook for inflation and the bond market in the second half of the year. It points out that the low inflation is mainly due to a negative output gap and high real interest rates, which suppress aggregate demand. Under the "anti - involution" policy, prices are expected to rise moderately at a low level in the second half of the year, with CPI and PPI showing different trends. In the bond market, the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment provides support, but there are also upward pressure on interest rates and uncertainties [1][2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 How to Understand the Current Low Inflation? - **Negative Output Gap**: China's GDP growth rate has a gap with the potential growth rate, the youth unemployment rate is high, industrial capacity utilization is low, and CPI and PPI are running at a low level, indicating that aggregate demand is lower than aggregate supply [2][18]. - **High Real Interest Rates**: Although the central bank has been lowering the nominal interest rate, the real interest rate has risen due to extremely low inflation and GDP deflator, which inhibits aggregate demand and forms a "passive tightening" effect [3][22]. 3.2 Current Characteristics of the Inflation Market - **Widening CPI - PPI Scissors**: In July 2025, the CPI - PPI scissors reached 3.6 percentage points, reflecting problems such as poor price transmission and unbalanced economic recovery, and squeezing the profits of downstream manufacturing enterprises [4][26]. - **Core CPI Reaching a New High**: In July 2025, the core CPI reached a new high since March 2024, becoming the main support for CPI, which shows positive changes in price operation and the effectiveness of policies [4]. - **"Anti - Involution" Not Driving PPI Upward**: "Anti - involution" policies have promoted the rise of commodity futures prices, but PPI has not increased. This may be due to the difference in pricing logic between futures prices and PPI, and the problem of insufficient terminal demand [4][34]. 3.3 Outlook for Inflation and the Bond Market under "Anti - Involution" - **Inflation Outlook**: In the second half of the year, CPI is expected to rise moderately, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of 0.1% and 0.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around 0% for the whole year. PPI is expected to maintain a trend of volatile recovery with narrowing year - on - year decline, with estimated year - on - year growth rates of - 2.7% and - 1.5% in the third and fourth quarters respectively, and around - 2% for the whole year, with a low possibility of turning positive within the year [5][41][51]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the "weak recovery, low inflation" environment, the bond market is supported by the fundamental logic and the central bank's monetary easing. However, the warming of the equity market and the "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" policies may bring upward pressure on the interest rate center. The impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market depends on whether the price increase expectation can be supported by real demand [6][57].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic stagnation, suggesting that just as individuals can misinterpret their physical sensations in extreme cold, markets can also misinterpret economic signals, leading to false perceptions of economic health [1][2]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to discrepancies between actual economic conditions and public perception [2]. - The case of Japan's "lost 30 years" illustrates how prolonged economic stagnation can occur despite seemingly positive data, as evidenced by Japan's CPI growth from 1991 to 2021 being only 7.5% [2][5]. Japan's Economic Stagnation - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [5][7]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, reflecting a long-term economic decline [7][10]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble burst, leading to ineffective policy responses that failed to stimulate recovery [10][11]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed shift from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to prolonged deflation, with interest rates remaining high until 1995 [11]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [11][12]. - Public works spending increased significantly in the 1990s, but much of it was directed towards low-impact projects in declining regions, resulting in wasted resources [12][14]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - Japan's experience highlights the importance of targeted investment in sectors that can drive growth, rather than indiscriminate infrastructure spending [23][27]. - The need for a coherent industrial policy to foster new industries is critical, as Japan has struggled to innovate in emerging sectors like technology and renewable energy [17][23]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes that while increasing public investment can stabilize growth, it must be strategically directed to avoid economic imbalances and ensure effective use of resources [27][28].