投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...

【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3074 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.457%）。当日注册仓单 41900 吨, 环比减少 1197 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.7666 万手，环比增加 20609 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3233 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 103404 吨, 环比减少 4724 吨。主力合约持仓量为 122.4554 万手，环比增加 34067 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3240 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-12-16 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪偏弱，受出口政策扰动影响，成材价格承压回落。从基本面看，螺纹钢本周产量明 显下降，库存延续去化，供需结构相对平衡，整体表现中性偏稳；热轧卷板产量继续下滑，表观需求小幅 回落，库存去化难度加大，本周厂库已出现阶段性累积。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货玻璃纯碱年报 纯碱产能延续扩张，玻璃有望加速出清 20251215 1 观点及策略 2 行情回顾 3 国外经济 4 国内经济 5 基本面分析 6 技术面分析 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 玻璃观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 观点及策略 纯碱观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 2026年纯碱市场将延续供需宽松格局，新增产能释放压力与存量产能调整并存。远兴能源二期天然碱项 ...

玻璃纯碱市场 2026 年年报 玻璃纯碱：春寒料峭处 双碳谋新篇 ——2025 年玻璃纯碱市场回顾与 2026 年展望 方正中期期货研究院 能源化工团队 魏朝明 Z0015738 摘要： 2025年浮法玻璃行业产线运行情况相对平稳，年内浮法玻璃日熔量稳定运行在16 万吨下方。截至12月初全国浮法玻璃生产线共计284条，在产216条，日熔量共计 154555吨。尽管玻璃需求和价格走势整体偏弱，年中玻璃价格受季节性因素及利好 消息带动波动显著，为行业带来盈利或者减亏的可能。玻璃产能稳定运行显示当前行 业亏损幅度及亏损周期尚不足以引发更多玻璃产线冷修从而带动行情反转。2026年玻 璃行业或将经历需求倒逼供应减量的市场化出清阶段。2026年度玻璃期现货价格波动 的核心区间为850-1250元/吨。 2025年纯碱供应形势保持平稳，岁末年初有新装置投产，2026年纯碱产能有进一 步增加预期。行业过剩压力增加，亏损程度加深。由于供应增加和需求下滑态势或于 2026年延续，纯碱产业需要积极关注期货及期权工具对管理生产经营风险的重要作用， 积极关注盘面情绪波动给出的套保机会。2026年度纯碱期现货价格波动的核心区间为 100 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market trading has weakened, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash markets face continuous supply - demand contradictions, with glass showing a weakening trend and soda ash under pressure due to potential demand challenges. For double - silicon, the decline in building material consumption has put pressure on alloys [1][3]. - The recommended strategies for glass, soda ash, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all to expect a sideways movement [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures showed a weakening trend, and the market trading center of the spot market moved down. Soda ash futures had a narrow - range fluctuation, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 58.227 million heavy cases, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the soda ash production was 735,400 tons, a 4.48% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 1.4943 million tons, a 2.88% week - on - week decrease [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and the supply - demand contradiction remains large. For soda ash, the cost - side support has weakened, and there are concerns about future demand due to the expected increase in float glass cold - repair [1]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for glass and soda ash is to expect a sideways movement [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis**: For silicon manganese, this week's steel consumption decreased, and the silicon manganese futures followed the downward trend of the black market. The 6517 silicon manganese prices were 5490 - 5550 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton in the southern market. For silicon iron, the main contract declined after the mid - day session. The 72 - grade silicon iron prices were 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron prices were 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are facing losses, with high production, high inventory, high cost, and low demand. The port manganese ore inventory has slightly increased but remains at a high level. Silicon iron demand has weakened, and enterprises have reduced the operating rate, leading to a decline in inventory [3]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy for silicon manganese and silicon iron is to expect a sideways movement [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined significantly. The steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. With the approaching winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely. Recently, there have been many disturbing news, so attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations [5]. - The overall attitude towards the black - building materials sector and domestic policies remains relatively optimistic. Future trends of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon are mainly led by the black - building materials sector and issues such as manganese ore price and electricity price [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - The polysilicon market is in a state of tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. - For the glass market, a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products 1. Rebar - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3069 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-1.53%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 40,679 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 87,857 lots to 1.602075 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: This week, the rebar production decreased significantly and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral - to - stable performance overall. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3238 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.34%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 109,014 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest increased by 42,440 lots to 1.148348 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The production of hot - rolled coils continued to decline, apparent consumption decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory increased this week. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within the bottom range. Attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [1][2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 757.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.56% (-12.00). The open interest decreased by 1378 lots to 468,100 lots. The weighted open interest was 894,100 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 72.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.73% [4]. - **Strategy Views**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The daily average pig iron production has fallen below 2.292 million tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory was recently depleted. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations due to many disturbing news [5]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon 1. Ferromanganese (Silicomanganese) - **Market Quotes**: On December 11th, the main contract of ferromanganese (SM603) rose in the morning and then weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.21% at 5712 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures - equivalent price of 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the price of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. 2. Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose more than 1% in the morning and then fell back, closing down 0.29% at 5418 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5560 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 142 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Future trends are mainly influenced by the black - building materials sector and the electricity price. Attention should be paid to possible sudden changes in the manganese ore market [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2601) was 8285 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.42% (+35). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 11,179 lots to 495,222 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 915 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 565 yuan/ton after conversion [11]. - **Strategy Views**: The industrial silicon price is expected to be weak, with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The production in Southwest China is expected to decline further in December, and overall demand is slightly weak [12]. 2. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2605) was 55,765 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.13% (+1165). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 6228 lots to 265,208 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; N - type re - feed material was 52.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was - 3465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Strategy Views**: The polysilicon production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within a range after the monthly spread returns [15]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (-20). The North China large - plate price was 1050 yuan, unchanged; the Central China price was 1110 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million boxes, down 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 11,700 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9059 short positions [17]. - **Strategy Views**: In November, many glass production lines were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [18]. 2. Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday at 15:00, the soda ash main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, down 2.76% (-31). The heavy - soda price in Shahe was 1113 yuan, up 9 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4943 million tons, down 44,300 tons (-2.04%), including 790,500 tons of heavy - soda inventory, down 20,300 tons, and 703,800 tons of light - soda inventory, down 24,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 61,727 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 56,952 short positions [19]. - **Strategy Views**: The overall supply pressure of soda ash is still large, and demand is relatively flat. The spot price has limited room for further decline. The 2.8 - million - ton capacity of the Alxa Phase II project is expected to put pressure on the market. The market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, with abundant overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1103 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 3 yuan/ton, down 150.00% from the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 220 yuan/ton [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.74%. The weekly output was 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [17][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 108.16% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, and the operating rate was 74.85% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 149.43 tons, a decrease of 2.88% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed fluctuations. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].