所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-26 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-26 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 "沪七条"：非沪籍外环内购房社保门槛降至 1 年，公积金贷款最高 324 万 观点分享： 上海五部门联合发布楼市新政，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。限购方面，非沪籍外环内 购房社保门槛降至 1 年，满 3 年可增购 1 套，持居住证满 5 年免社保限购 1 套。公积金方 面，首套贷款最高额度提至 240 万（多子女家庭最高 324 万），并放宽二套贷款认定。税收 方面，成年子女首套房暂免征收个人住房房产税。继北京之后，上海推出的房市调整政策力 度超预期，信号明确，是上海近年最大幅度松绑。其中公积金额度全国领先，直接降低月供 与首付压力；房产税免征则打通了置换堵点，将会有力地激活改善型需求，在推动市场回归 平稳健康的同时也依然守住了"房住不炒"的底线。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 黑色 | ★★★★ | 黑色：地产预期回暖，黑色商品反弹。2 月 25 日上海市发布了被称为"沪七条"的楼市新 政， ...

Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, raising its long-term forecast to $4,500 per ounce [1] - UBS expects gold prices to touch $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by persistent geopolitical risks and continued support from the Federal Reserve's easing policies [1] Group 2: Copper Price Outlook - Citigroup holds a bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months, citing strong demand from China and limited downside risks [1] - The bank maintains a long-term average copper price forecast of $13,000 per ton for 2026, indicating a balanced global copper market [1] Group 3: AI Impact on GDP - Goldman Sachs reports that AI contributed nearly zero to the U.S. GDP last year, as investments were offset by imports of chips and hardware [2] - A survey of executives revealed that while 70% of companies are actively using AI, about 80% believe it has not impacted employment or productivity [2] Group 4: S&P 500 Index Forecast - A Reuters survey indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to rise nearly 10% to around 7,500 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong earnings and stable economic growth [3] - Despite a resilient market, risks remain from inflation trends, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - Societe Generale highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are supporting the safe-haven demand for bonds, leading to a dovish shift in market expectations for central bank interest rate paths [4] Group 6: UK Interest Rate Expectations - ING analysts suggest that the British pound may decline if the Bank of England's Governor hints at a potential rate cut in March [5][6] Group 7: Canadian Interest Rate Outlook - Scotiabank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged until the outcome of the USMCA negotiations becomes clearer [7] Group 8: Domestic AI Developments - CITIC Securities reports a surge in the usage of domestic AI models, indicating a significant expansion in AI inference demand and investment opportunities in domestic computing power [8] Group 9: Electronic Fabric Demand Cycle - CITIC Securities notes that the current electronic fabric demand cycle, driven by AI, may be more intense than previous storage cycles, with a projected 100% increase in demand for specialty fabrics by 2026 [9] Group 10: AI Industry Chain Outlook - CITIC JianTou expresses optimism about the AI industry chain, highlighting strong demand for computing power and the transition of large models towards monetization [10] Group 11: AIDC Growth and Equipment Demand - CITIC JianTou indicates that the AIDC construction phase will lead to significant demand for power capacity and related equipment, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2025 to 2028 [11] Group 12: AIDC Sector Performance - Founder Securities anticipates continued high growth in the AIDC sector, driven by increased capital expenditures from leading internet companies and a growing demand for power equipment in the U.S. [12] Group 13: New Energy Vehicle Market Recovery - Galaxy Securities predicts a recovery in the automotive market post-Spring Festival, with several flagship new energy vehicle models set to launch, potentially boosting market demand [13]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend as policy guidance becomes clearer with the upcoming important meetings, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][4][10] - The market is expected to focus on the sustainability of price increases in cyclical sectors and signs of stabilization in the technology sector [1][4][10] Sector Analysis Cyclical Sectors - The cyclical sectors, including chemicals and non-ferrous metals, have shown strong performance, driven by external factors such as geopolitical tensions and internal price increase logic [1][4][10] - The report highlights the potential for investment in cyclical sectors like oil and gas, coal, and construction materials, suggesting that economic recovery expectations could further boost these sectors [7][11] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly areas like AI computing and semiconductors, is noted for its long-term growth potential, with recommendations to consider investments once valuations return to reasonable levels [2][11] - Despite recent short-term profit-taking, the underlying industrial logic of the technology sector remains intact, with expectations for structural recovery opportunities as market sentiment stabilizes [1][10] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a rebound due to supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [8] - The report suggests that the sector's recovery will continue, with a focus on companies with strong land reserves and those returning to stable growth [8] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a dual focus on "resource products + technology" as key investment themes, emphasizing the cyclical sectors benefiting from price increases and geopolitical catalysts, alongside technology sectors with long-term trends [2][11] - Investors are advised to consider opportunities in sectors like rare earths, which are critical for various industries, and to prioritize leading companies with resource advantages [6][11]

Group 1 - The total margin balance of A-shares reached 26,466.26 billion yuan on February 25, increasing by 238.70 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.52% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading volume on the same day was 2,474.56 billion yuan, an increase of 193.33 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.97% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, 25 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 4.096 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, defense and military industry, non-bank financials, and communications [3] Group 3 - A total of 76 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Northern Rare Earth leading at a net inflow of 936.31 million yuan [4] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows included Tongfu Microelectronics, Huagong Tech, Shenghong Technology, Feilihua, Baosteel, Yuntianhua, Zijin Mining, Yongtai Technology, and China Rare Earth [4]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 102060 13212 7.63 三月 103150 13289 7.70 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.80 -801.62 现货出口 225.88 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 24530 3373 7.27 三月 24770 3403 4.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -3053.40 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 23380 3109 7.52 三月 23920 3129 7.56 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.22 -2186.60 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2026/02/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 139500 17891 7.80 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 7.93 -1310.69 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal ETF Tianhong (159157) has shown strong market activity with a turnover of 14.43% and a transaction volume of 323 million yuan, reflecting a robust performance in the sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 25, the non-ferrous metal ETF Tianhong (159157) reached a new high with a total size of 2.265 billion yuan and 2.180 billion shares outstanding [2] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past eight days, totaling 1.075 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 269 million yuan [2] Group 2: Product Highlights - Investors interested in the non-ferrous metal sector can consider the Tianhong non-ferrous metal ETF (159157), which closely tracks the industrial non-ferrous index (H11059.CSI) and selects 30 large-cap companies involved in copper, aluminum, rare earths, lead-zinc, and tungsten-molybdenum [3] - The combined weight of the copper and aluminum sectors exceeds 50%, emphasizing the core focus of the industrial non-ferrous index [3] Group 3: Market Trends - On February 25, the rare earth sector saw significant gains, with Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit. Prices for various rare earth products have increased post-holiday, with notable price rises for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and other metals [4]

Market Overview - Year-to-date, stock ETFs have shown a net outflow of 187.3 billion yuan as of February 24, 2026[2] - The total return of the Wind All A-Share Index is 6.53% year-to-date, despite significant ETF outflows, indicating a shift in market sentiment[2] International Developments - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited China from February 25 to 26, accompanied by a high-level delegation of 30 representatives from the German business sector[3] - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, indicated ongoing investigations into China's compliance with the Phase One trade agreement, suggesting potential tariff measures[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, with total trading volume reaching 24,625.48 billion yuan, an increase of 2,604.86 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.41%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 0.54%[4] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond is 1.8195%, with a change of +1.42 basis points[5] - The average rates for R001 and R007 in the interbank market were 1.4652% and 1.5869%, respectively[5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included steel (4.69%), non-ferrous metals (3.48%), and building materials (2.75%), while banking and media sectors saw declines of 0.46% and 1.15%, respectively[5]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 国内方面，春假假期客流量、消费数据总体向好：全国春运跨区域客运创历史新高，单 日出行量 2 月 20 日突破约 3.5 亿人次，前 20 天累计跨区域出行已超 50 亿人次，整个春运 预计可达约 9.5 亿人次规模；假期消费稳步增长，主要商圈零售与餐饮销售同比提升逾 8%， 部分免税及服务消费显著增加，旅游与文化娱乐消费保持活跃，总体呈现"消费景气度提升" 的季节性特征，更全数据等待后续相关部门披露。总体而言，2 月处于经济数据和政策真空 期，短期市场焦点或将转向开年经济成色以及 3 月初两会的政策预期。 贵金属：美国关税不确定性加大，金银价格走强 国内春节长假期间，国际贵金属价格维持震荡偏强走势，国际金价重返 5200 美元上方， 银价走势更强，国际银价再度站上 87 美元/盎司。美国经济整体仍具韧性，但部分增速不及 预期。通胀方面，回落进程受阻、粘性特征凸显，12 月美国 PCE 价格指数同比升至 2.9%、 环比 0.4%，核心 PCE 同比升至 3%，均高于预期，核心 PCE 结束连续走平态势反弹，仍高 于美联储 2%目标。美联储 1 月议息会议纪要显 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究 |（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-26 避险情绪持续发酵，铂钯⼤幅⾛⾼ 2026年2⽉25⽇收盘，⼴州期货交易所铂⾦主⼒合约上涨7.03%，报 586.0元/克；钯⾦主⼒合约上涨4.50%，报457.95元/克。美国关税不确 定性增强叠加美伊局势尚不明朗，市场避险情绪持续发酵，推动铂钯价格 ⼤幅⾛⾼。 铂观点：避险情绪持续发酵，铂金大幅走高 主要逻辑：据新华社2月22日报道，美国最高法院20日公布裁决，认定美 国《国际紧急经济权力法》没有授权总统征收大规模关税，叠加美伊紧张 局势持续发酵，引发市场避险情绪抬升。此外，津巴布韦暂停所有原矿和 锂精矿出口，短期内或加大市场对供应的担忧，从而进一步提振铂价。不 过，津巴布韦的铂钯主要以未锻造或半制成品形态进行出口，而非原矿。 因此，该政策预计对铂族金属实际供应产生的影响不大。长期来看，美国 仍处于降息通道中，特朗普造成的美联储独立性受损和全球政治经济秩序 松动，从而促使美元信用走弱的长期趋势延续，有利于价格长期弹性的释 放。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长期维持价格震 荡偏强预期。 ...

Market Overview - The market opened high and closed strong, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rising over 1% [2][3] - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4147.23, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14475.87, up 1.29% [2] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Steel (up 4.69%), Non-ferrous Metals (up 3.48%), and Building Materials (up 2.75%) [2] - Conversely, sectors such as Media (down 1.15%) and Banking (down 0.46%) lagged behind [2] Concept Indices - Concept indices that performed well included Zinc Metals, Titanium Dioxide, and Phosphate Chemicals, with gains of 4.94%, 4.85%, and 4.51% respectively [2][3] - Underperforming concepts included Sora Concept (down 0.91%) and Military Restructuring Concept (down 0.89%) [2] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a high-probability window for upward movement post-holiday, supported by macro policies and industry catalysts [4] - The anticipated return of capital from pre-holiday cashing out is expected to provide ongoing momentum for future increases [4] - Key sectors to focus on include Dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and Power Equipment [4]