根据国家统计局公布的数据，有色金属类别下的铅锭（1#）2026年2月上旬市场价格为16464.3元/吨， 同比下滑2.69%，环比下滑2.37%，纵观近5年同时期其价格，2025年2月上旬达到最大值，有16918.8元/ 吨。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国有色金属行业市场发展现状及竞争格局预测报告》 数据来源：国家统计局 2020-2026年2月上旬铅锭（1#）市场价格变动统计图 ...

有色ETF鹏华（159880）业绩比较基准为国证有色金属行业指数收益率，管理人为鹏华基金管理有限公 司，基金经理为闫冬，成立（2021-03-08）以来回报为138.66%，近一个月回报为3.18%。 2月26日，有色ETF鹏华（159880）开盘涨1.30%，报2.416元。有色ETF鹏华（159880）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨0.66%，洛阳钼业涨1.19%，北方稀土跌0.12%，华友钴业涨3.39%，中国铝业涨1.63%，赣 锋锂业涨4.44%，云铝股份涨1.08%，山东黄金涨0.00%，中金黄金跌0.60%，天齐锂业涨5.91%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 26 日 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 102,890 | 1.36% | 103040 | 0.15% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,350 | 1.17% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 291,554 | 93,583 | 556,155 | -7,927 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,795 | -6,860 | 321,000 | 4,315 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 287,806 | 10,717 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 249,650 | 6,475 | 5.02% | 0.52% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | -85.04 | -83.6 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月26日 (原油) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，宏观驱动且铝价处于高位，铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱 于往年。 (氧化铝) 夜盘时段，油价维持区间窄幅波动。EIA最新数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加1600万桶，创下 2023年2月以来最大单周增幅；库存总量升至4.358亿桶，为八个月以来的最高水平。前一日API数 据公布后我们曾提示美国原油库存超预期大幅增加对油价的利空影响总体有限。美伊第三轮谈判将 在26日于日内瓦举行，伊朗方面表示决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。美国方面则持续 保持军事威慑，但当前冲突整体仍处于可控范围。总体来看，近期美伊地缘局势的演变仍是主导油 价波动的核心变量。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强运行。美国贸易代表称正研究推进提升全球关税。地缘方面美伊新一轮谈判在即, 双方释放缓和信号但也保留军事行动选项。短期地缘和关税均处于关键节点，责金属等待进一步驱 动。 【铜】 隔夜铜价短线倾向震荡稳固在密集均线上方。贵金属与有色板块对美国关税不确定性的反映并不一 致，有色需求端主要关注关税相对低执行期，对国 ...

综合来看，上游供应弹性不足与下游新兴领域的稳定增长形成共振，构成了当前锡市场短期供需错配、 支撑价格上行的核心逻辑。 今日走势预测 期货市场：美元走弱及科技需求回暖，隔夜伦锡收涨7.19%；最新收盘报53915美元/吨，比前一交易日 上涨3615美元，涨幅为7.19%，成交量为884手，持仓量21849万增加113；国内方面，夜盘沪期锡高位 运行，尾盘延续大幅收涨。主力合约沪锡2603收报423990元/吨，涨23130，涨幅报5.77%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月25日伦锡库存量7680吨，较前一交易日库存量增加25吨。 长江锡业网讯：今日沪锡期货全线高开，主力月2603合约开盘报417820涨16960，9：10分沪锡主力2603 合约报418690涨17830；沪期锡开盘高开高走，盘面维持高位运行；宏观面，农历春节后，国内金属市 场迎来强势爆发，多个核心品种创下节后最大单日涨幅，其中稀土板块表现尤为突出，成为资源类资产 的主线亮点。此番普涨行情由多重驱动力共同塑造：宏观层面，美元小幅走弱降低了以美元计价的大宗 商品进口成本，同时美股波动促使部分资金转向商品市场寻求机会；产业层面，AI硬件化与新能源转 ...

2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：情绪面发酵，盘面或高开高走 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间或不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 26 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,250 | 3,300 | 6,060 | 9,410 | -1,810 | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-26 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-26 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 "沪七条"：非沪籍外环内购房社保门槛降至 1 年，公积金贷款最高 324 万 观点分享： 上海五部门联合发布楼市新政，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。限购方面，非沪籍外环内 购房社保门槛降至 1 年，满 3 年可增购 1 套，持居住证满 5 年免社保限购 1 套。公积金方 面，首套贷款最高额度提至 240 万（多子女家庭最高 324 万），并放宽二套贷款认定。税收 方面，成年子女首套房暂免征收个人住房房产税。继北京之后，上海推出的房市调整政策力 度超预期，信号明确，是上海近年最大幅度松绑。其中公积金额度全国领先，直接降低月供 与首付压力；房产税免征则打通了置换堵点，将会有力地激活改善型需求，在推动市场回归 平稳健康的同时也依然守住了"房住不炒"的底线。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 黑色 | ★★★★ | 黑色：地产预期回暖，黑色商品反弹。2 月 25 日上海市发布了被称为"沪七条"的楼市新 政， ...

Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, raising its long-term forecast to $4,500 per ounce [1] - UBS expects gold prices to touch $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by persistent geopolitical risks and continued support from the Federal Reserve's easing policies [1] Group 2: Copper Price Outlook - Citigroup holds a bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a rise to $14,000 per ton in the next three months, citing strong demand from China and limited downside risks [1] - The bank maintains a long-term average copper price forecast of $13,000 per ton for 2026, indicating a balanced global copper market [1] Group 3: AI Impact on GDP - Goldman Sachs reports that AI contributed nearly zero to the U.S. GDP last year, as investments were offset by imports of chips and hardware [2] - A survey of executives revealed that while 70% of companies are actively using AI, about 80% believe it has not impacted employment or productivity [2] Group 4: S&P 500 Index Forecast - A Reuters survey indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to rise nearly 10% to around 7,500 points by the end of 2026, supported by strong earnings and stable economic growth [3] - Despite a resilient market, risks remain from inflation trends, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - Societe Generale highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are supporting the safe-haven demand for bonds, leading to a dovish shift in market expectations for central bank interest rate paths [4] Group 6: UK Interest Rate Expectations - ING analysts suggest that the British pound may decline if the Bank of England's Governor hints at a potential rate cut in March [5][6] Group 7: Canadian Interest Rate Outlook - Scotiabank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged until the outcome of the USMCA negotiations becomes clearer [7] Group 8: Domestic AI Developments - CITIC Securities reports a surge in the usage of domestic AI models, indicating a significant expansion in AI inference demand and investment opportunities in domestic computing power [8] Group 9: Electronic Fabric Demand Cycle - CITIC Securities notes that the current electronic fabric demand cycle, driven by AI, may be more intense than previous storage cycles, with a projected 100% increase in demand for specialty fabrics by 2026 [9] Group 10: AI Industry Chain Outlook - CITIC JianTou expresses optimism about the AI industry chain, highlighting strong demand for computing power and the transition of large models towards monetization [10] Group 11: AIDC Growth and Equipment Demand - CITIC JianTou indicates that the AIDC construction phase will lead to significant demand for power capacity and related equipment, with a projected CAGR of 55% from 2025 to 2028 [11] Group 12: AIDC Sector Performance - Founder Securities anticipates continued high growth in the AIDC sector, driven by increased capital expenditures from leading internet companies and a growing demand for power equipment in the U.S. [12] Group 13: New Energy Vehicle Market Recovery - Galaxy Securities predicts a recovery in the automotive market post-Spring Festival, with several flagship new energy vehicle models set to launch, potentially boosting market demand [13]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend as policy guidance becomes clearer with the upcoming important meetings, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][4][10] - The market is expected to focus on the sustainability of price increases in cyclical sectors and signs of stabilization in the technology sector [1][4][10] Sector Analysis Cyclical Sectors - The cyclical sectors, including chemicals and non-ferrous metals, have shown strong performance, driven by external factors such as geopolitical tensions and internal price increase logic [1][4][10] - The report highlights the potential for investment in cyclical sectors like oil and gas, coal, and construction materials, suggesting that economic recovery expectations could further boost these sectors [7][11] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly areas like AI computing and semiconductors, is noted for its long-term growth potential, with recommendations to consider investments once valuations return to reasonable levels [2][11] - Despite recent short-term profit-taking, the underlying industrial logic of the technology sector remains intact, with expectations for structural recovery opportunities as market sentiment stabilizes [1][10] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a rebound due to supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [8] - The report suggests that the sector's recovery will continue, with a focus on companies with strong land reserves and those returning to stable growth [8] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a dual focus on "resource products + technology" as key investment themes, emphasizing the cyclical sectors benefiting from price increases and geopolitical catalysts, alongside technology sectors with long-term trends [2][11] - Investors are advised to consider opportunities in sectors like rare earths, which are critical for various industries, and to prioritize leading companies with resource advantages [6][11]

Group 1 - The total margin balance of A-shares reached 26,466.26 billion yuan on February 25, increasing by 238.70 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.52% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading volume on the same day was 2,474.56 billion yuan, an increase of 193.33 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.97% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, 25 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 4.096 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows included non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, defense and military industry, non-bank financials, and communications [3] Group 3 - A total of 76 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Northern Rare Earth leading at a net inflow of 936.31 million yuan [4] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows included Tongfu Microelectronics, Huagong Tech, Shenghong Technology, Feilihua, Baosteel, Yuntianhua, Zijin Mining, Yongtai Technology, and China Rare Earth [4]