Report Information - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to face inventory build - up pressure and decline from high levels [2][4] - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate around high levels [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 765.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.59%). The previous day's position was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores remained stable, while prices of some domestic ores decreased [4] - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project on November 11 [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,044 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.26%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,252 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [8] - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. There were also changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand in November [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: There were price changes in futures contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Spot prices and various price differences also had corresponding changes [12] - **News**: There were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke, and changes in the tender quantity of a large steel group [12][13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of JM2601 was 1,265.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (- 0.4%); J2601 was 1,743.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.7%). There were changes in trading volume, position, and basis [16] - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: There were price, trading volume, and position changes in different log futures contracts. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while others had slight changes [19] - **News**: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market declined last week and then rebounded, with an overall decline of 0.47%. The black sector led the decline, while precious metals and agricultural products rose. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and mixed macro - economic indicators [1]. - Different commodity sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, are expected to have short - term fluctuations based on their respective fundamentals and macro - economic factors [1][2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The commodity market fell 0.47% last week. The black sector dropped 2.62%, energy and chemicals fell 0.41% and 0.06% respectively, while precious metals and agricultural products rose 0.11% and 0.57% [1]. - Among specific varieties, rapeseed meal, pulp, and eggs had the highest increases of 6.32%, 3.49%, and 2.32% respectively, while asphalt, iron ore, and methanol had the largest declines of 6.04%, 4.94%, and 3.12% [1]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased, and the market scale increased by nearly 10 billion, with only the precious metals sector showing net capital outflows [1]. 2. Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Officials' hawkish remarks and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown situation may keep the sector in high - level fluctuations in the short - term [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: With a neutral macro - environment and mixed fundamentals, the sector is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Black Metals**: With weakening demand, falling production, and increasing raw material pressure, the sector may continue to be supported by costs and fluctuate [2]. - **Energy**: The oversupply of crude oil and the impact of the US government shutdown on demand may lead to short - term oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Chemicals**: Cost support from coal and mixed demand expectations may result in short - term fluctuations and mid - term anti - arbitrage opportunities [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The reduction of US soybean tariffs and the weak rebound of palm oil may lead to different trends in different agricultural products, with some under pressure [3]. 3. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns, with a total scale increase of 0.81%. Energy - chemical, soybean meal, non - ferrous metal, and silver ETFs also had different return and scale changes [35].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The valuation of steel is not high, but the rebound driving force is insufficient. In the short - term, the macro - economic outlook may be in a vacuum, and the focus is on industrial contradictions. The steel price is unlikely to be further suppressed, but there is no strong driving force for price increases. The overall industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production, with potential for a sector - wide resonance increase later [2]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns such as high supply, large inventory de - stocking pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure and oscillate [3][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has started, and the industrial pressure in the steel off - season has increased. The supply of coking coal is still tight, but the positive supply factors are weakening, and the negative demand factors are emerging. The sector is expected to be in a state of oscillation [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively strong, mainly due to arrival rhythms. With the decline in molten iron production, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the previous short positions can be held [7]. 3. Summary by Category **Futures Market Data** - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: On November 7, for far - month contracts (RB2605, HC2605, etc.), prices showed various changes. For example, RB2605 closed at 3095 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); for near - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, etc.), RB2601 closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.20%). There were also corresponding changes in cross - month spreads, basis, and other indicators [1]. **Steel** - **Market Situation**: Weekend steel spot prices dropped slightly, with a decline of 10 - 20 yuan, and trading volume was low. In the short - term, the macro - economic outlook is in a vacuum, and the focus is on industrial contradictions. The steel price is unlikely to be further suppressed, but there is no strong driving force for price increases. The long - term trend is a gradual decline in steel production, with potential for a sector - wide resonance increase later [2]. **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon** - **Market Situation**: Affected by external macro - factors, market sentiment has declined, and the prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have followed suit. The fundamentals have concerns such as high supply, large inventory de - stocking pressure, and weak downstream demand. Prices may be under pressure and oscillate, and future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [5]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Situation**: The fourth round of price increases for coke has started, and the spot market sentiment is average. The supply of coking coal is still tight, but the positive supply factors are weakening, and the negative demand factors are emerging. The steel off - season has increased industrial pressure, and the sector is expected to be in a state of oscillation [6]. **Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of iron ore is relatively strong, mainly due to arrival rhythms. With the decline in molten iron production, the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the previous short positions can be held [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season. Hot - rolled coil inventory risk still exists, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. Although demand is still weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environmental changes [2]. - For the iron ore market, due to environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is still running weakly [5]. - For the manganese silicon and silicon iron market, the black - sector pricing has recently returned to fundamentals. The market is trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it is considered a temporary shock with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The subsequent upward height depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [9][10]. - For the industrial silicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For the polysilicon market, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price increase depends on the actual progress of the platform company [15]. - For the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. For the soda ash market, it is expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation in the short term [18][19]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2399 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 59467 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1490 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 240 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.19% (- 17.00). The open interest increased by 21913 lots to 55.94 million lots. The weighted open interest was 97.96 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.82 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.41% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. The port inventory increased, and the steel - mill inventory also rose. Fundamentally, iron ore demand continued to weaken, and inventory pressure remained. In the short term, the ore price was expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Information - On November 7, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.66% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 110 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 1.07% at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 yuan/ton [7]. - Last week, the manganese - silicon price fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The silicon - iron price also fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton (+ 0.62%) [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, the black - sector pricing returned to fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it was considered a temporary shock. It was more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese - ore situation. For silicon iron, it followed the electricity - price changes with low operational value [9][10]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon 3.4.1 Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9220 yuan/ton, up 1.71% (+ 155). The open interest increased by 35423 lots to 435728 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged, with a basis of - 320 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In October, industrial - silicon production increased. In November, Southwest production was expected to decline. Demand from polysilicon decreased, and organic - silicon production was expected to be stable. Inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to consolidate [13]. 3.5 Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53215 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The open interest increased by 3207 lots to 228759 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1015 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon production decreased, and downstream silicon - wafer production was also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking was limited. The price increase depends on the progress of the platform company [15]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton, up 0.36% (+ 4). The North China large - plate price remained unchanged, and the Central China price increased by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (- 4.03%) [17]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 1.00% (+ 12). The Shahe heavy - soda price increased by 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons (4.03%) [18]. 3.6.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and production - capacity changes [18]. - Soda ash: The domestic market was stable, and the short - term market was expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of global trade patterns accelerated by the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to a reconfiguration of global industrial division and macro order, which may significantly increase asset volatility and economic uncertainty [2][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets, with a decade-long down cycle in upstream investments leading to unstable existing supplies and insufficient incremental supplies [5][16]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and resource protectionism are likely to increase macro uncertainties, further challenging the supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [5][23]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Energy Transition - The focus on strategic security is shifting demand-side attention towards energy transition and reserve construction, indicating that energy transition remains a significant trend and reserve building is essential for strategic commodities [5][36]. - The global energy system has seen a new round of investment expansion since 2021, with a significant shift towards renewable energy and related sectors, reflecting a steady advancement in energy transition [36][39]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, driven by AI narratives and the ongoing electrification trend, which is expected to provide sustained demand growth for commodities like copper [6][48]. - The restructuring of trade patterns and industrial division is likely to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with significant demand potential from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6][56]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - The article anticipates that geopolitical tensions, resource security demands, and emerging demand growth will form a "triple play" for the commodity market as it enters a new chapter [2][8]. - The supply-demand balance in the commodity market is expected to improve marginally in 2026, with a focus on micro-level differences and fundamental changes in various commodities [58][60]. Group 5: Specific Commodity Insights - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap due to insufficient upstream investment and increasing demand from electrification, with prices expected to remain elevated [68]. - The oil market may experience a shift from surplus to a more balanced state, with potential upward price adjustments driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints [64][65]. - Agricultural commodities are expected to see a gradual recovery, influenced by trade policies, weather risks, and the growth of biofuels [70][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. With high inventory, the supply - demand drive remains under pressure, but the strength of coking coal provides cost support for steel prices. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will operate in a weak and volatile manner [1]. - Iron Ore: In the short term, the supply has decreased, demand has weakened, and inventory has increased. The ore price shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Coking Coal: The supply of some high - quality resources is still tight, and the demand for high - quality coking coal is strong. However, the acceptance of some high - priced resources by downstream is low. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner [1]. - Coke: The third round of price increases has been implemented, but the steel market is entering the off - season, and the demand for coke has declined slightly. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will operate in a wide - range volatile manner [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The market sentiment is boosted, and the cost side provides some support, but the overall fundamental driving force is limited. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1][3]. - Silicon Iron: The cost support has increased, but the driving force for continuous upward movement is limited. It is expected to operate in a firm and volatile manner in the short term, subject to market sentiment and the pricing of the new round of steel tenders [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.43%, with a decrease of 11,400 lots in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and the national building materials trading volume was 110,300 tons. The rebar production, inventory decline, and apparent demand all showed a weak trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures closed at 777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%, with a trading volume of 260,000 lots and a reduction of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply decreased, demand weakened, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1290.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with an increase of 30,130 lots in positions. The supply of some high - quality resources is tight, and the demand for high - quality coking coal is strong [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1776.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan/ton or 1.34%, with a decrease of 248 lots in positions. The third round of price increases was implemented, but the demand declined slightly [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5798 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with a decrease of 2,290 lots in positions to 351,100 lots. The supply was relatively stable, demand was low, and inventory was under pressure [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The main contract of silicon iron futures closed at 5586 yuan/ton, up 1.34%, with an increase of 831 lots in positions to 169,600 lots. The cost support increased, but the driving force for continuous upward movement was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Price Spreads**: Information on profits (e.g., rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and price spreads (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][6][7][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron over different time periods [15][16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads of different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for various varieties [24][25][27][31][33][34][37][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties (e.g., coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) [43][44][45][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience in the field of power coal [54]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: Unilateral observation; wait for the opportunity to enter the spot-futures positive spread [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Temporarily observe [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuating, industrial customers should do appropriate selling hedging [8] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Prices temporarily stabilized, with small increases of 10 - 20 yuan on Thursday. Trade volume increased significantly. Future steel production is expected to decline, and in the early stage of production cuts, it may suppress furnace materials, while in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance. Due to the large basis, it is not advisable to short on the disk. It is recommended to reduce exposure through physical positions [2] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of the two silicons followed the adjustment. In the short term, they may trade based on fundamentals. Currently, there are still concerns in the fundamentals, with high supply, large inventory removal pressure, and weak downstream demand. Prices may fluctuate under pressure [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, and coal mine destocking slowed down. Spot coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, falling steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease. The market is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it is recommended to observe unilaterally, and in the long term, go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [4] - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure and prices are falling. The supply is within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline this week. Iron ore port inventories will continue to rise. With weak supply - demand, shorting unilaterally is a good choice [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 6, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3102.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.36%); HC2605 closed at 3265.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.21%); etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3037.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (0.40%); HC2601 closed at 3256.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.22%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On November 6, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 65.00 yuan/ton; the coil - to - rebar spread was 219.00 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.91; etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: On November 6, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3200.00 yuan/ton, 3210.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, and 0.00 yuan [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The port trade offer for coke was 1560 (-), and the coking coal price index was 1392.6 (+8.7). For Mongolian coal, the market was cold, with prices such as Ganqimaodu Port: Mongolian 5 raw coal at 1165 (-) [4] - **Iron Ore**: The supply was within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline, and port inventories were expected to rise [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including stocks, bonds, commodities, and agricultural products. It points out that the short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market is mainly focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth. Different asset classes are expected to have different trends, with most showing short - term oscillations and some having long - term trends influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and policy factors [2][3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - The US labor market is weak, with the number of Challenger job cuts in October reaching a 20 - year high. The global risk appetite has significantly cooled. In China, the manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations have increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market should focus on domestic economic growth and policy implementation. For assets, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; bonds are expected to oscillate and rebound, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; most commodity sectors are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to be cautiously watchful [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as phosphoric chemical, aluminum, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver increased. It was boosted by the weakening US dollar and rising safe - haven demand. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to watch in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of domestic steel rebounded slightly on Thursday. The market's macro sentiment was repaired, but the fundamentals were still weak. The demand for steel has basically peaked this week, and the inventory decline has slowed down significantly. The supply contraction may further intensify. The short - term steel market is expected to be oscillatory and weak [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore strengthened slightly on Thursday. Although steel mills are still expected to cut production, the molten iron output increased slightly this week. The supply pressure is still large, and the short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Thursday, and the futures prices continued to rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreased as the output of five major steel products declined. The supply of silicon manganese was relatively stable, and the supply of silicon iron was also in a certain state. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Thursday. The supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the pressure remains. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass oscillated on Thursday. Affected by news from Shahe, the price was supported. The supply was stable, the demand was weak year - on - year, and the inventory was relatively high. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to previous large declines and the impact of Shahe, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The number of Challenger job cuts in the US in October increased significantly. The US copper inventory continued to rise, and the domestic refined copper de - stocking was less than expected. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper shortage, and the short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillatory [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose significantly on Thursday. The European aluminum premium rebounded. The domestic de - stocking was not smooth, and the supply and imports were at a high level, while the demand was weakening marginally. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to try shorting if the price rises above 21,800 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the demand is still weak. The tin price is at a historical high, and the high price has begun to suppress physical demand. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Thursday. The Jiangxi Natural Resources Department released a mining right transfer income assessment report, which may promote the resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo. It is advisable to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Thursday. The demand was relatively stable, and the social inventory increased slightly at a high level. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon declined slightly on Thursday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The spot price is supported by policy expectations, but the terminal demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a high - level range, and range - bound operations are advisable [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Fed's hawkish stance and employment data have increased the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut. The government shutdown will continue, and the oil price is under medium - to - long - term pressure [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt continued to break through the previous low and has not bottomed out yet. The basis is low, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply pressure is increasing, and attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The price of PX fluctuated due to news of polyester production cuts. The demand is supported by high PTA开工, and the supply is tight. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude oil cost fluctuations [16]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose due to production cut news but fell back at night. The market doubts the authenticity of the news. The downstream开工 has declined, and the supply is high. The price is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose with the polyester market but is still under pressure. The port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to be cautious before the price reaches a new low [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose slightly with the polyester sector but is under pressure later. The terminal orders are declining seasonally, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium - term [17]. - **Methanol**: The port spot price of methanol rebounded, and the basis strengthened slightly. The port inventory is at a high level but is showing a slight de - stocking trend. The inland inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. The short - term price may decline, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [18]. - **PP**: The market price of PP moved slightly downward. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand recovery rate, but the demand has shown marginal improvement. The crude oil price rebound supports the cost. The price is expected to decline inertia in the short term [19]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE declined. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening after the peak season. The crude oil price provides limited support. The price is expected to continue to decline [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable, with individual enterprises raising prices slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is mixed. The export price is expected to oscillate at a low level [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell overnight. The market is optimistic about the repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations. The USDA will release a report on November 15. If the yield per unit is further lowered, the cost - repair logic of US soybeans will be enhanced [21]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is sufficient. With the repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the soybean meal inventory may increase, which will limit the upside potential [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil fell. The over - expected production increase since October has put pressure on the price. India's palm oil imports decreased in October, and the production in Malaysia continued to increase in November [22]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean oil adjusted weakly. The supply - demand situation is still unfavorable, but it is relatively resistant to decline. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the basis is strong due to trade concerns [23]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the northern port has limited upward momentum, and the supply - demand situation in North China is balanced. The supply exceeds demand, but the low downstream inventory and strong wheat price provide some support [23]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price has been falling since November. The supply pressure remains, and the price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice pickling peak in December [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping index futures, and multiple metal and agricultural product futures. It provides market conditions, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market condition: A-shares showed resilience, with major indices rebounding after an early decline. Most major contracts of the four stock index futures closed higher, and the basis discount of the main contracts widened. Power resource-related industries performed well, while technology sectors corrected [2][3]. - News: The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Overseas, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated potential interest rate hikes [3][4]. - Capital: On November 5, the trading volume in the A-share market decreased slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: With unclear market directions and cold trading sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with minor changes in the yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank liquidity was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate remained stable [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: The upward trend of Treasury bond futures driven by the central bank's bond purchases has paused. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB and consider positive arbitrage strategies [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large-scale tariffs. US employment data improved slightly, and the government shutdown affected market liquidity [7][8]. - Market situation: Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. Gold closed at $3,978.75 per ounce, up 1.21%, and silver closed above $48 per ounce, up 1.79% [9]. - Outlook: In the medium to long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but there may be a 2 - 3 month consolidation period after reaching new highs. Short-term gold is expected to trade between $3,900 - $4,030, and silver between $47 - $49 [9][10]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Route) - Spot price: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies [11]. - Shipping index: As of November 3, the SCFIS European route index decreased, while the US West route index increased. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index increased [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased year-on-year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated upward, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,800 - 2,000 points [12]. - Operation suggestion: Buy on dips for the December contract in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the premium/discount showed mixed changes. Market sentiment was still cautious [12]. - Macro: The US dollar index strengthened, suppressing copper prices. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was under review [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate remained low. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand for copper showed strong resilience, with more purchase orders released after price corrections [14]. - Inventory: LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories of copper increased [15]. - Logic: The short - term rise in copper prices may suppress demand, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 84,000 and the resistance at 86,500 [16]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On November 5, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions showed mixed trends, with a generally loose supply pattern and a weakening price [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation in November [17]. - Inventory: In October, the inventories of aluminum oxide at ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants increased [17]. - Logic: The price of aluminum oxide is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18][19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 5, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium/discount also declined, with limited actual transactions [20]. - Supply: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and the operating capacity remained stable. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: In the traditional peak season, the weekly operating rates of downstream aluminum processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots increased, while LME inventories decreased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price of aluminum will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals. Pay attention to the resistance at 21,500 yuan/ton [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 5, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased, with weak spot trading [23]. - Supply: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate rose. It is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in October [23]. - Demand: In October, demand showed a mild recovery, but the transmission of terminal demand was not smooth, and high prices suppressed purchasing willingness [24]. - Inventory: In October, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [24]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 is expected to remain strongly volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Consider arbitrage strategies [26]. Zinc - Spot: On November 5, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [26]. - Supply: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline in November [27]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary zinc processing industries were generally stable, and overall demand showed no significant improvement [28]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of zinc decreased, while LME inventories remained stable [28]. - Logic: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the fundamentals may limit further upward movement. It may continue to trade within a range [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [29]. Tin - Spot: On November 5, the price of tin decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The market transaction improved slightly [29]. - Supply: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased, and tin ingot imports also declined. The supply from Myanmar showed signs of improvement [30]. - Demand: The demand for tin remained weak, with a decline in orders in the solder industry. Although some new fields drove tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall [31][32]. - Inventory: LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [31]. - Logic: Considering the strong fundamentals, it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips. Pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar [32]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import price also declined [32]. - Supply: In the capacity expansion cycle, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly in October but remained at a high level [33]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was stable, while the demand from stainless steel was average. The demand for nickel sulfate showed signs of improvement in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term [33]. - Inventory: LME inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [33]. - Logic: The nickel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and Indonesian policies [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis increased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore remained firm, while the price of nickel iron decreased. The chromium iron market was weak, and the cost support declined [36]. - Supply: In September and October, the production of stainless steel increased. The production of the 300 - series remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts declined [37]. - Logic: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and steel mill supply [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was weak [39]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased. Recently, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene decreased slightly, while that from mica remained stable [40][42]. - Demand: The overall demand was optimistic, with an increase in production schedules in the iron - lithium and ternary sectors. Pay attention to the demand after November [40][42]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with a reduction in smelter and downstream inventories [41]. - Logic: The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has shifted. The price is expected to fluctuate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was weak, and the basis strengthened [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. Profits from high to low were billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October, the growth rate slowed down, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly [43]. - Demand: Domestic demand expectations were weak, while exports remained high. The apparent demand for steel increased [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [44]. - Viewpoint: The 1 - month contract has a loose supply of iron elements. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [46]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly, while the far - month contract decreased. The 1 - 5 spread widened [47]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was positive [48]. - Demand: The daily consumption of imported iron ore decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined [49]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments decreased, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly [50]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, the daily port clearance volume increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [52]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coking coal futures rebounded, and the prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal were strong [53]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [54]. - Demand: The production of coke increased slightly, while the iron - making output decreased significantly. The demand for coking coal from steel mills weakened [55]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with inventory reductions in mines, ports, and washing plants, and inventory increases in coking plants and steel mills [55]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [55]. Coke - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coke futures rebounded, and the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented [56]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative, but the loss narrowed after the price increase [56]. - Supply: The price of coking coal increased, providing cost support for coke. The production of coke increased slightly [57]. - Demand: Due to environmental restrictions, the iron - making output decreased, and the demand for coke from steel mills was suppressed [57]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coke increased slightly, with inventory increases in coking plants and ports and inventory decreases in steel mills [57]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: On November 5, the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [59]. - Fundamentals: The State Council adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Bangladesh agreed to purchase US soybeans, and the estimated soybean yield in the US was adjusted [59][60]. - Market outlook: The adjustment of tariffs on US imports boosted the prices of US soybeans and domestic futures. The cost support for domestic soybean meal has increased [60][61]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was weak, with a decline in prices in various regions [62]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [62]. - Market outlook: The market supply is loose, and the pig price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and operate with caution [63]. Corn - Spot price: On November 5, the prices of corn in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, with light market transactions [64]. - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port decreased slightly, while the corn inventory increased [64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure remains, and the upward movement of the corn price is limited [64].