-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.30） | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3315 14 0.42% 3450 135 | | 热卷 | 3483 28 0.81% 3450 -33 | | 铁矿 | 789 -3.5 -0.44% 775 -14 | | 焦煤 | 1117 29.5 2.71% 980 -137 | | 焦炭 | 1676.5 64.5 4.00% 1359 -317.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | 今日黑色系商品期货有涨有跌。螺纹收于3315元/吨，上涨0.42%；热卷主力合 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment remains strong, focusing on "rotation and supplementary gains," with growth expected to follow the cyclical trends. Market transactions have further increased, and the sentiment is still heated, making it easier for indices to rise while the downside risk is limited [2][4] - The market rotation characteristics have continued, shifting from a "barbell contraction" to an "expansion," although chasing gains remains challenging. It is recommended to reduce operations and select relatively low-position thematic directions for layout and holding, waiting for opportunities for "rotation and supplementary gains" [2][4] Stock Market Factors - In the past week, the small-cap growth style outperformed, while the volatility of large and small-cap styles remained at a near one-year low. The volatility of value and growth styles has increased [6] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices remained at a near one-year low, with the speed of industry rotation oscillating upward and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increasing. The trading concentration of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries has slightly decreased [6] Commodity Market Factors - In the commodity market, the trend strength of the precious metals sector remains at a near one-year high, while the trend strength of the black sector has rapidly increased. The basis momentum of the precious metals sector is rising, while other sectors show oscillating downward trends [15] Options Market Factors - The implied volatility levels of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 have shown an upward trend, with the skew of call options maintaining previous levels while the skew of put options has significantly decreased. The market is generally optimistic due to policy-driven and sentiment-driven factors [21] Convertible Bond Market Factors - In the convertible bond market, the premium rate for conversion at 100 yuan remains resilient, continuing to rise slightly, with less than 10 basis points difference from the peak in May. The proportion of low premium rate convertible bonds has shown signs of weakening, especially those below 5%, while the trading volume in the convertible bond market has increased alongside the heat in the equity market [26]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Black Metal R & D report on ferroalloys dated July 29, 2025 [2] - The research analyst is Zhou Tao, with relevant qualification numbers and contact information provided [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 6110, up 270 daily and 236 weekly, with trading volume of 726,721 (down 491,602) and open interest of 196,312 (up 769) [4] - SM main contract closed at 6212, up 184 daily and 200 weekly, with trading volume of 1,009,206 (down 238,021) and open interest of 347,380 (down 6,026) [4] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and some other regions had price increases, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia at 5,650 (up 50 daily and 250 weekly), and Jiangsu and Tianjin at 5,850 [4] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other regions also saw price hikes, with Inner Mongolia at 5,800 (up 100 daily and 100 weekly), and Jiangsu at 6,100 [4] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -460 (down 220 daily and up 14 weekly), and SF - SM spread was -102 (up 86 daily and 36 weekly) [4] - For silicomanganese, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -412 (down 84 daily and 100 weekly), and Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 50 (unchanged daily and up 50 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was 40 (unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly), South African semi - carbonate was 34.8 (unchanged daily and up 0.1 weekly), and Gabon lump was 40 (up 0.5 daily and 0.7 weekly) [4] - For semi - coke small pieces, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strength, but due to recent sharp and volatile market, no chasing of rising prices [7] - Arbitrage: Close the long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese position, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: Hold off [7] Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon: On July 29, spot prices were firm with slight increases in some regions. Supply increased slightly with rising prices. Demand was supported by high steel mill output due to good steel profits. Market sentiment was boosted by the rebound of coking coal, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices [6] - Silicomanganese: On July 29, manganese ore and silicomanganese spot prices were firm. Supply also increased slightly with price increases. Demand was supported by good steel profits, and the cost of port manganese ore was relatively strong. The fundamentals were healthy, but due to market volatility, no chasing of rising prices [6] Important Information - On July 29, Tianjin Port had semi - carbonate at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump at 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump at 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump at 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - On July 29, Hebei steel mills raised the purchase price of coke, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Related Attachments Price Charts - There are charts showing the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts SF - SM, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), and the spot prices of silicomanganese and Inner Mongolia silicomanganese [11][15][16] Cost and Profit Charts - There are charts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese cost and profit, including production costs and profits in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [19][22] - For ferrosilicon, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,421 with a profit of 79, and in Ningxia were 5,274 with a profit of 226 [19] - For silicomanganese, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,747 with a profit of 3, and in Guangxi were 6,241 with a loss of 521 [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply has generally improved, demand has declined, and the supply - demand structure has weakened on a month - on - month basis. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, making it difficult to return to a downward trend. The strategy is to mainly wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 29, black - series commodity futures showed mixed performance. Rebar closed at 3347 yuan/ton, up 1.98%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3503 yuan/ton, up 2.01%; iron ore's main contract closed at 798 yuan/ton; coking coal and coke continued to decline, with coking coal's decline exceeding 6% [1] Market Analysis - Market sentiment has recovered. Iron ore futures rose with finished products, ending a four - day losing streak. There is a need for a rebound after continuous decline, and the prices of finished products and raw materials have risen in tandem. Long - process steel mills' profits have not been significantly compressed. Short - term foreign ore supply has decreased, domestic demand remains high, and the short - term accumulation pressure of port inventories is small, so iron ore is in a relatively strong real - world situation [1] - Last week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.16 tons to 1336.5 tons, for the fourth consecutive week of small declines. Production decreased slightly by 1.22 tons, and the weekly change in apparent demand was small. The off - season characteristics are not obvious. Terminal market demand in the off - season maintains resilience, and the profitability of steel mills is good. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills has increased to 63.64%, a nine - month high. The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate have slightly declined, reaching 83.46% and 90.81% respectively. The daily average pig iron output has decreased by 0.21 tons to 242.23 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.09%. In the traditional off - season, iron ore demand maintains resilience [1] - The total global iron ore shipment volume this period increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons, reaching a one - month high and being at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. Australia's shipment volume increased sharply by 230.2 tons to 1859.6 tons, an increase of over 14%. Brazil's shipment volume decreased slightly, and the shipment volume from non - mainstream regions decreased by over 20%. From July 21 to July 27, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2319.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 192.1 tons. Port inventories decreased again. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 14281.73 tons, a decrease of 106.83 tons from the previous Monday; the total inventory at 45 ports was 13686.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.63 tons [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a shock - based approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

Core Viewpoints - The current market conditions are conducive to a bull market driven by policy and liquidity, with deflation and a downturn in the real estate market unlikely to change the overall bullish trend [1][6]. Industry Research - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai showcased over 800 companies, with more than 50% being international, indicating a significant interest in AI technologies. AI is expected to be a major application area, particularly in programming [3]. - The mining and metallurgy sector is expected to see a divergence, with bullish sentiment on non-ferrous metals due to inventory cycles, while black metals are anticipated to face downward price pressure [11]. - The "anti-involution" theme is emerging, with funds favoring low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as traditional industries and certain new energy sectors like wind and solar [12]. - The market is shifting towards a rotation phase, focusing on previously lagging sectors such as coal, utilities, and real estate, indicating a search for undervalued assets [13]. Equity Market - The A-share market has shown strong performance since June, with a favorable external environment and liquidity conditions. However, internal pressures from fundamentals and policy responses are expected to create a balancing act [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to see a structural market where tech stocks can perform independently despite a lack of overall market trends [7]. - The current A-share market resembles the 2014-2015 period, with a clear trend of household savings moving into the stock market, favoring thematic investments and high-quality growth stocks [22].

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01 ...

周三铁元素期价上冲动能略微放缓,带着现货量价都有降温,焦煤焦炭却还强势,后续可能会进入到品种间分化且涨势出 匪煤县寿(石册 800 50000 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】情绪略微降温 2000 200 分歧的阶段,但并不能确定高点拐点己经出现。产业层面,关注本周钢材产量端变化,若延续需求韧性且能继续承接供 1000 增产,那么将继续支撑炉料偏强的格局。盘面10 合约螺纹相对更弱一些,这与近期螺纹期货仓单量快速回升存在相关性, 压制近月合约螺纹估值。目前期现套暂还没有解锁,期现正套依然锁住一部分现货货物流。单边,黑色系可能会出现波动加 -200 大,可观察是否回踩均线有支撑。行情的锚点主要在于期货市场资金驱动和情绪波动,重点关注 IC + 7202 50 + 7202 20 + 7202 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤继续涨停板,焦炭第三轮提涨井后 现货端,焦炭第三轮提涨登场,预计很快落地,焦煤现货竞拍情绪火爆,成交价大幅上涨。港口贸易准一焦炭报价1420(+ 40),炼焦煤价格指数1102.5(+31.7);蒙煤方面,市场报价再创新高,下游拿货情绪有所好转,现甘其毛都口岸,蒙5 焦炭基差(右轴) 原煤99 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market has continued the inventory accumulation trend since the third - quarter peak season, with supply - demand surplus pressure due to OPEC+ production increases. Oil prices are mainly under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. - Precious metals are in a wide - range oscillation as economic data shows resilience and the probability of extreme tariff confrontation is decreasing [3]. - Different commodities have various trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity [2 - 49]. Summary by Categories Energy Crude Oil - Since the third - quarter peak season, the oil market has seen crude oil inventory decline by 0.6% and refined oil inventory increase by 1.7%. The supply - demand surplus pressure persists. Oil prices are under pressure in the short term but may be supported by geopolitical factors later [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia has reduced the supply risk of high - sulfur resources. FU is relatively weak, and LU follows crude oil with less volatility [22]. Asphalt - It is supported at around 3590 yuan/ton. August refinery production is expected to decline, and demand recovery is delayed. Low inventory provides support but limits the upside [23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas market decline has driven the domestic market down. With weak supply and demand, the domestic market may stabilize, and the futures market is weak [24]. Metals Copper - The copper market is cautious, with resistance at the upper integer level. It is recommended to hold a short position lightly [4]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with resistance at around 21,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Zinc - Supported by cost, it oscillates around 23,000 yuan. There is a chance to go short at a high level [8]. Lead - With tight raw material supply and cost support, it shows limited downside. It is recommended to buy call options lightly [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel market is in the middle - late stage of a rebound. Wait for a short - selling opportunity [10]. Tin - The Shanghai tin market has risen above 270,000 yuan, but the long - term trend is not optimistic. Consider reducing short positions [11]. Manganese and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese inventory is decreasing, and it follows the trend of rebar with a relatively small increase [19]. Iron Ore - Supply is stable, and demand is resilient. It follows the black - series trend but is at a relatively high price [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coking coal and coke are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [17][18]. Chemicals Urea - Agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and overall demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. Methanol - The futures market is strong, affected by policies. Inventory is decreasing, and attention should be paid to market rhythm [26]. Pure Benzene - Its price has strengthened, with seasonal improvement expected in the third - quarter and pressure in the fourth - quarter. Consider monthly spread trading [27]. Styrene - It continues to move sideways, with weakening macro - support and poor spot trading [28]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply pressure increases, polyethylene has weak fundamentals, and polypropylene's short - term increase is limited [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is strong due to policies, but long - term growth is uncertain. Caustic soda is also strong, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [30]. PX and PTA - Their prices are rising, with PTA having room for processing margin repair. Follow domestic policies [31]. Ethylene Glycol - It is rising, supported by coal market sentiment and policies. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [32]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Their prices follow raw materials. Short - fiber may be bullish in the medium - term, and bottle - chip's profit repair is limited [33]. Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate before tariff and weather issues are clear [37]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips, and pay attention to weather and policies [38]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed - related products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39]. Corn - The corn market has few contradictions, and Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly [41]. Live Pigs - Near - month contracts may face a risk of decline, while far - month contracts are affected by capacity reduction expectations [42]. Eggs - Near - month contracts may be under pressure, and far - month contracts may rise after capacity reduction [43]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a high - level oscillation. Wait and see or conduct intraday trading [44]. Sugar - The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with pressure on US sugar and uncertainties in domestic production [45]. Apples - The futures price is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the price of new - season early - maturing apples [46]. Others Timber - The futures price is oscillating. Supply is limited, but demand is in the off - season, so wait and see [47]. Pulp - It may oscillate strongly following commodities. Consider buying on dips lightly [48]. Stock Index - The stock index has risen, and the market risk preference is stable. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector [49]. Treasury Bonds - Bond yields are rising. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening [50]. Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) may oscillate widely in the short term. Consider short - selling on rallies [21].

文字早评 2025/07/25 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国务院总理李强将于 7 月 26 日出席在上海举行的 2025 世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级 别会议开幕式并致辞； 2、国务院国资委：优化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制"内卷式"竞争，加强重组整合； 3、郑商所：近期影响玻璃、纯碱市场的不确定性因素较多 提醒投资者理性参与 合规交易； 4、价格法修正草案公开征求意见 规范市场价格秩序、治理"内卷式"竞争； 5、马斯克称特斯拉接下来可能面临几个艰难的季度，预计全年资本支出超过 90 亿美元，此前预计超过 100 亿美元； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.05%/-0.19%/-0.90%/-1.58%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.07%/-3.00%/-4.70%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.23%/-3.97%/-6.39%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.11%/0.15%/0.20%/0.20%。 消息方面：1、欧元区 7 月制造业 PMI 初值为 49.8，预期 49.7，前值 49.5；服务 ...