部分班轮公司宣涨8月初运价,盘面偏强震荡,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月14日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2421.94点，较上期上涨7.3% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1218.03点，较上期下跌3.19% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1266.59点，较上期下跌18.7% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1435.21点，较上期下跌0.50% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1186.59点，较上期上涨0.85% | | 7月18日 | 7月18日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（欧洲航线）1803.42点，较上 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: July 21, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Core Viewpoints - High-frequency economic data shows that production is heating up, the real estate market is declining marginally, prices are diverging, and shipping indices are also showing a differentiated trend. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of new growth-stimulation policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and international geopolitical changes [2] Content Summary by Section Production - Steel: In the week of July 18, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.31 pct, and the rebar output decreased by 7.6 tons [3][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of July 16, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants increased by 0.1 pct [9] - Chemical Industry: The operating rates of PX and PTA remained flat compared to the previous week [9] - Automobile Tires: In the week of July 17, the operating rate of all-steel tires increased by 0.54 pct, and that of semi-steel tires increased by 3.07 pct [9] Demand - Real Estate: In the week of July 13, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased, the land transaction area declined, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased [13] - Movie Box Office: In the week of July 13, the total national movie box office revenue decreased by 123 million yuan compared to the previous week [13] - Automobile: In the week of July 13, the daily average retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 0.8 million vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increased by 0.7 million vehicles [15] - Shipping Indices: In the week of July 18, SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.77%, and BDI rebounded significantly by 23.39% [18] Prices - Energy: On July 18, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.53% to $69.28 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price increased by 2.53% to 932.5 yuan per ton [20] - Metals: On July 18, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.36%, +1.38%, and +3.14% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.73% [21] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products decreased. The wholesale price index of agricultural products 200 decreased by 0.54%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by +0.29%, +0%, -1.36%, and -2.55% respectively compared to the previous week [23] Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: On July 17, the seven-day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing decreased by 66,400 person-times, and that in Shanghai increased by 438,600 person-times [26] - Flight Volume: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 252.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 7.43 flights, and that of international flight volume increased by 14.71 flights [27] - Urban Traffic: On July 18, the seven-day moving average of the peak congestion index in first-tier cities decreased by 0.06 [27]

Core Insights - The establishment of a direct shipping route from Indonesia to Hainan has significantly improved the efficiency of coconut imports, reducing transportation time from 40 days to 7 days and decreasing the loss rate from 8% to below 3%, while enhancing freshness by 30% [2][3] - The direct shipping route has led to a cumulative import of over 50,000 tons of coconuts within six months of operation, indicating strong demand and positive reception in the cross-border transportation market [2] - Hainan is expanding its international shipping network, with 72 stable container shipping routes currently operational, aiming to enhance trade connections both domestically and internationally [2][3] Domestic Trade Expansion - Hainan has opened 30 domestic trade routes, strengthening connections with East and North China, and enhancing logistics with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - The implementation of a "parallel port" logistics model among Hainan Yangpu Port, Shenzhen Shekou Port, and Guangdong Zhanjiang Port aims to promote trade through improved logistics [3] International Trade Development - Hainan's strategic location within the RCEP region provides unique advantages for trade with other member countries, leading to the establishment of a dense shipping network covering ten ASEAN countries and South Asia [3] - New direct shipping routes to Abu Dhabi, the West and East coasts of the U.S., and India have filled gaps in intercontinental shipping, facilitating faster global market access for Hainan-made products [3] Economic Impact - The maritime transport sector is crucial for Hainan's foreign trade, with over 80% of international trade conducted via sea routes [3] - Hainan's foreign trade value is projected to reach 277.65 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, with exports surpassing 100 billion yuan for the first time, reflecting a 43.5% growth [3][4] - In the first five months of this year, Hainan's total import and export value exceeded 101.7 billion yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has recovered, with the dollar index oscillating at a high level, gold struggling to break through and rise, and the stock market remaining bullish in the absence of significant macro - level negative factors. Different commodities show various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and policy impacts [1][2][3] - In the commodity market, some products like palm oil, coal, and iron ore have their own price trends influenced by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations. For example, palm oil prices may be affected by Indonesian supply and biodiesel plans; coal prices are supported by seasonal demand but face pressure later; iron ore prices are expected to remain high but with limited upside [27][31][35] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about Japan - US trade negotiations and has sent positive signals regarding China - US negotiations, causing gold to remain in an oscillatory range. The possibility of dismissing Powell is low, and inflation expectations have decreased [12][13][14] - Investment advice: Gold prices will remain range - bound in the short term [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The Japanese ruling coalition has lost its majority in the Senate, and the US Treasury Secretary has advised Trump not to dismiss Powell. The dollar index is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16][18] - Investment advice: The dollar will oscillate at a high level in the short term [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Four departments are standardizing the new energy vehicle industry's competition order. The stock market is enthusiastic, and in the absence of more macro - level negatives, it is more likely to rise than fall [21] - Investment advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the freeze on bond repurchase collateral, and short - term bond yields have declined rapidly. There may be opportunities to go long around the Politburo meeting, but attention should be paid to trade - related risks in August [23][25] - Investment advice: Sell positions at previous highs and continue to go long on dips [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of July 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the expected volume for July 19 - 25 is 2.2351 million tons. The rise in palm oil prices is due to supply shortages in Indonesia and speculation on biodiesel [26][27] - Investment advice: Observe or go long on dips [29] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 18, the import market for steam coal was quiet. Due to seasonal demand, coal prices are expected to remain high, but attention should be paid to pressure after August [30][31][32] - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with attention to post - August pressure [33] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production and sales in Q2 2025 increased. Iron ore prices are following the upward trend of industrial products, and the market's long - term pessimism has improved, but the upside is limited [34][35] - Investment advice: The price is expected to remain high, with the disk mainly compressing profits [36] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In June 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn and 30,000 tons of cotton. US cotton export data is sluggish, and ICE cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [37][38][40] - Investment advice: Be cautious when chasing the rise of Zhengzhou cotton [40] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume is expected to decrease slightly. US soybean prices are rising due to strong demand, and the basis of soybean meal remains weak [41][42] - Investment advice: The futures price will oscillate strongly, and the basis of soybean meal will remain weak [43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar. A large amount of imported sugar will arrive in July - August, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate [46][47] - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate, with attention to the resistance level of 5900 [47] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Canada is strengthening steel import restrictions. The inventory of steel products continues to decline slightly, and steel prices are expected to remain strong in the short term but face risks in August [48][50][51] - Investment advice: Steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short term, and traders are advised to hedge on rebounds [51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Starch factory inventory pressure is increasing, and the开机 rate is expected to remain low [52] - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the开机 rate will remain low [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the July 18 imported corn auction was 18%. Corn prices in North China have rebounded, and the basis has weakened [53] - Investment advice: Hold short positions on new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [53] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - China's alumina production in June 2025 was 7.749 million tons. The news of eliminating backward production capacity in the non - ferrous industry may boost the futures price [54][55] - Investment advice: Observe [56] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's unforged copper exports in June 2025 increased. The global copper inventory is rising, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [57][59] - Investment advice: Change the short - selling strategy to observation; continue to observe for arbitrage [59] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Some companies have issued statements against false information. The price of polysilicon has increased, but the supply is expected to rise. The price of silicon wafers has also increased, but it is lower than the benchmark [60][62] - Investment advice: Going long on dips may be more secure [63] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon enterprises have temporarily shut down. The supply recovery is slower than expected, and industrial silicon is expected to be strong in the short term [64][65] - Investment advice: Take a long - biased view in the short term and observe the resumption of production by large factories [66] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ghana is re - evaluating a lithium project. The expiration of mining licenses in Jiangxi may cause supply concerns [67][68] - Investment advice: Take profit on long positions and forward spreads; consider reverse spreads [68] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote structural adjustment in key industries. The supply of lead is tightening, and demand is improving [69][70][71] - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to go long on dips; observe for arbitrage [71] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in May 2025 increased. The upward trend of zinc has been established, and short - selling should be avoided in the short term [72][74] - Investment advice: Observe unilaterally; consider near - month positive spreads for arbitrage; observe for internal - external trading [75] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. supplies high - nickel materials for solid - state batteries. The anti - involution policy has boosted the non - ferrous sector, and nickel prices may follow the upward trend [76][78] - Investment advice: Observe or take small long positions in the short term; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [79] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. Investment funds have reduced their net long positions, and the carbon price may be affected by weather and renewable energy [80] - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will oscillate in the short term [81] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, lowering the oil price cap. Oil prices are oscillating narrowly, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - long term [82][83] - Investment advice: Oil prices will remain oscillatory [84] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The Asian styrene market is quiet. The styrene basis and spread have declined, and the port inventory may increase. Pure benzene may see more buying from macro funds [84][85] - Investment advice: Observe styrene unilaterally; consider long - term allocation of pure benzene after a better risk - return ratio [85] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has remained stable, with increased supply and moderate demand. The basis - collection of caustic soda is completed, and further price increases are difficult [86][87] - Investment advice: It is difficult for caustic soda to rise further [87] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has trended higher, but high - price transactions are weak. The pulp price has risen due to policy and coal price rebounds, but the upside is limited [88][89] - Investment advice: The upward space of pulp is limited [89] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has been narrowly adjusted, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. PVC has rebounded with the market, but the subsequent market may be limited [90][91] - Investment advice: The subsequent PVC market may have limited upside [91] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in South China has been weakly stable. The supply is high, and the demand is stable. In the medium term, it is advisable to short on rallies [92] - Investment advice: Short soda ash on rallies in the medium term [92] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has been stable. The glass market is volatile, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to use a long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [93][94] - Investment advice: The main contract may fluctuate between 900 - 1100 yuan/ton; use the long - glass short - soda - ash strategy [94] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Typhoons have caused South China ports to suspend operations. The container freight rate index has fluctuated. The 08 - 10 spread has widened, and there may be short - selling opportunities for the 10 - contract [95][97] - Investment advice: Consider short - selling the 10 - contract on rallies or when the spot inflection point is confirmed [97]

Core Insights - The AI Fund Huaxia Dividend Quantitative Stock A (021570) reported a profit of 426,600 yuan for Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0238 yuan [3] - The fund's net asset value (NAV) growth rate for the reporting period was 2.83%, and as of the end of Q2, the fund size was 15.97 million yuan [3] - The fund is categorized as a standard equity fund, focusing on cyclical stocks, and as of July 18, the unit NAV was 1.135 yuan [3] Fund Performance - The fund manager, Sun Ranye, oversees seven funds, with the Huaxia National Securities 2000 Index Enhanced Initiation A showing the highest one-year NAV growth rate at 50.97%, while Huaxia Dividend Quantitative Stock A had the lowest at 13.93% [3] - As of July 18, the fund's NAV growth rates were 6.26% over the past three months, 7.99% over the past six months, and 13.93% over the past year, ranking 13th out of 18 in its category for the last three and six months, and 5th out of 14 for the last year [3] Investment Strategy - The fund employs a multi-factor quantitative investment strategy, making stock investment decisions based on quantitative models while actively participating in new stock subscriptions on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance returns [3] Risk Metrics - As of June 27, the fund's Sharpe ratio since inception was 0.122 [8] - The maximum drawdown since inception was 10.34%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q2 2025 at 6.93% [11] Portfolio Composition - The average stock position since inception was 87.11%, compared to the category average of 88.69%. The fund reached a maximum position of 92.15% by the end of 2024 and a minimum of 75.04% by the end of Q3 2024 [14] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings included China COSCO Shipping, Jiangsu Bank, Shanghai Bank, Baosteel, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, CITIC Bank, Lanhua Sci-Tech, Bank of Communications, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and China Shenhua Energy [19]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific maintains an "overweight" rating on aviation oil transportation, anticipating a peak in passenger flow during the summer travel season, with recent ticket prices decreasing and an increase in ticket sales and seat occupancy rates [1] Aviation Sector - The summer travel season is experiencing a peak in domestic passenger flow, with ticket sales and seat occupancy rates on the rise [2] - Domestic supply growth is low, with fleet sizes of major airlines like Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern increasing only by 2%, 3%, and 4% year-on-year respectively [2] - The ticket prices have recently decreased, driving a rapid increase in ticket sales and improving seat revenue [2] - The three major airlines are expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025, with optimistic expectations for Q3 and Q4 performance [2] Oil Transportation Sector - The EU has implemented the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, with the effectiveness of these sanctions still to be observed [3] - The price cap for Russian oil exports to third countries has been adjusted from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, with a dynamic adjustment mechanism to ensure its effectiveness [3] - An additional 105 oil tankers have been added to the sanctions list, bringing the total to 444 [3] - The anticipated effects of increased oil production in the second half of the year and favorable oil transportation market conditions are expected [3] Import and Export Tracking - The import of bulk commodities is under pressure year-on-year, while container exports show resilience [4] - From January to May 2025, the foreign trade cargo throughput at major ports in China increased by 2% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 8% [4] - The import of iron ore and coal has decreased by 3% and 11% respectively, while crude oil imports have increased by 1.4% due to increased production in the Middle East and falling oil prices [4] - Exports of electric vehicles, solar batteries, and lithium batteries have seen significant growth, with increases of 45%, 53%, and 18% respectively [4] - The export amounts to the US, EU, ASEAN, and Africa have shown varied changes, with ASEAN and Africa demonstrating higher growth to offset the impact of US tariff frictions [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Airline Industry**: White Cloud Airport, Hainan Airlines, China National Aviation, Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, Huaxia Airlines - **Shipping Industry**: Jinjiang Shipping, Antong Holdings - **Express Logistics Industry**: Jitu Express, SF Express, Shentong, Yunda, YTO Express - **Chemical Industry**: TDI market, high-speed resin market, various sub-industries - **Steel Industry**: General steel market performance and outlook - **Coal Industry**: Current market conditions and challenges Core Points and Arguments Airline Industry Performance - White Cloud Airport reported a Q2 profit of 450 million yuan, with net profit excluding non-recurring items at 290 million yuan, stable compared to Q1 [3] - Hainan Airlines expects a mid-term profit of 45 to 65 million yuan, despite a slight loss in Q2 [3] - China National Aviation anticipates a mid-term net profit increase of 78% to 90%, driven by fleet expansion and lower fuel prices [3] - Huaxia Airlines showed strong performance with a Q2 profit of approximately 160 million yuan, exceeding expectations [3] Shipping Industry Growth - Jinjiang Shipping's net profit for H1 is expected to be between 780 million to 810 million yuan, a significant increase of 146% to 155% due to rising demand in Southeast Asia [4] - Antong Holdings reported a net profit of 490 million to 540 million yuan, with a growth of 218% to 250% attributed to adjustments in shipping capacity [4] Express Logistics Sector Highlights - Jitu Express saw a 66% increase in package volume in Southeast Asia and a 14.7% increase in China, benefiting from strong TikTok e-commerce growth [5] - SF Express reported a 32% growth in business volume in June, with Shentong surpassing Yunda in revenue for the first time since 2020 [5] Chemical Industry Insights - The chemical industry’s operating rate fell to 71.9%, the lowest in history, with significant implications for older production facilities [8] - TDI market supply has contracted significantly, leading to rapid price increases, though sustainability of these price hikes is uncertain [12] - High-speed resin market demand remains strong, with companies like Shengjun Group expected to see a 50% increase in sales [13] Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry is experiencing the lowest production and inventory levels historically, with a potential recovery driven by government policies [15] - Major steel companies have seen a 20% increase in stock prices, with expectations of further profit growth in the coming months [15] Coal Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Coal companies reported mixed results, with some facing significant declines while others, like Baotai Long, turned losses into profits [18] - The coal market is currently in a destocking phase, with rising demand from electricity and chemical sectors [19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The launch of the official direct sales platform by Hanglv Zongheng APP aims to enhance ticket sales efficiency for airlines, potentially reducing reliance on OTA platforms [6] - The government’s redefinition of old equipment standards in the petrochemical industry may significantly impact sectors with high old capacity ratios [9] - The chemical sector is expected to face downward pressure in Q3, but certain products like refrigerants and high-speed resins are projected to perform well [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's supply-side reforms are expected to benefit major oil companies and private refining enterprises [20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience high - level fluctuations in the short term. For the main 2510 contract, the market's fundamental trading logic remains to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth. For the 2508 contract, its valuation depends on the freight rate trend in early August [1][4]. - The shipping market in August is likely to face a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is not clear [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In August, the weekly average capacity is 321,000 TEU/week, with Maersk adding 2 additional vessels. In September, there are currently 2 blank sailings and 7 pending voyages (1 less than last week). Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average capacity in September is 299,000 TEU/week, and this value currently has limited reference significance [4][49]. - Regarding static capacity, in the first half of 2025, the top ten liner companies received a certain number of new ships, with some deployed on European lines. From July - December, it is expected to receive 36 ships (558,000 TEU) of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, and only Evergreen has a plan to receive a 24,000 TEU ship in the second half of the year [55][58]. 3.2 Demand - The cargo volume during the peak season from July - August this year is better than expected, which is related to the resilience of the European economy and some exporters shifting from the US market to Europe. It is expected that the cargo volume may remain resilient in early August, and it is necessary to observe whether the inflection point of cargo volume appears in mid - August [4]. - From the perspective of the US import, in June, the total US import container volume was 2,381,063 TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. China's exports to the US decreased by 24.9% year - on - year, while exports to Southeast Asia and India increased by 25.2% year - on - year [24]. - From the perspective of China's exports, in June, the decline in exports to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience [26]. - From the perspective of Asia's exports to Europe, the container trade volume has shown certain fluctuations. In May, Asia's exports of containers to Europe reached 1.81 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 10.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.0% [30][38]. 3.3 Price - On July 18, the SCFI European Line closed at $2,079/TEU, a week - on - week decrease of $20/TEU, reflecting the price cuts of MSC and Yangming in late July. On July 14, the SCFIS index closed at 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3% [11]. - In late July, MSC and Yangming had small price cuts, while other liner companies' FAK remained stable. In August, ONE's offline freight rates remained unchanged, and the OA Alliance and MSC may announce price increases. The expected time for the freight rate inflection point has been postponed to mid - August [13]. 3.4 Strategy - For unilateral trading, some long positions in the 2508 contract should be liquidated for profit, and the remaining positions can be dynamically liquidated for profit based on the implementation of the announced price increase in early August. - For arbitrage, hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [4].

Economic Indicators - As of July 20, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 50.13%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.91%, also down 0.01 percentage points[8] - The monthly ECI supply index for July is 50.12%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points from June[9] - The ELI index is at -0.91%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential acceleration in structural policy tool deployment[12] Investment and Financing - In the first half of 2025, China’s bond market issued various bonds totaling 44.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%[15] - Net financing from bonds reached 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 38.6% of the increase in social financing scale[15] - The average issuance rate for corporate credit bonds in June 2025 was 2.08%, down 32 basis points from the previous year[15] Consumer Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars for the week ending July 13, 2025, was 47,548 units, an increase of 4,218 units year-on-year[22] - Retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-13, 2025, totaled 571,000 units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, but a 5.0% decrease month-on-month[22] Construction and Real Estate - The area of land supplied in 100 major cities decreased by 18.63% week-on-week, totaling 12.75 million square meters[26] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 15.63% week-on-week, amounting to 1.0916 million square meters[26] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from last week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables remains at 4.38 yuan/kg[38] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.05/barrel, down $0.74 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,351.70/ounce, up $17.62[38]

Core Viewpoint - The global shipping giant Maersk emphasizes its ability to mitigate the impact of the U.S. government's port service fee policy targeting Chinese vessels, asserting that it will continue to procure ships from China and will not raise customer prices due to these fees [1][4]. Group 1: Maersk's Position and Strategy - Maersk's Greater China President, Silvia Ding, stated that the company will consider various factors, including cost and technical requirements, when ordering new ships, and will not exclude Chinese shipyards due to U.S. port fees [1][4]. - Ding mentioned that 10% of Maersk's fleet may incur port fees, but the company can adjust its fleet to avoid additional costs [1]. - Maersk's global shipping network is flexible enough to help clients navigate market volatility, with adjustments made to ship tonnage to match changing demand [2]. Group 2: Market Context and Reactions - The U.S. government's proposed port fees and tariffs have created challenges for the shipping industry, with significant declines in container shipping demand noted, including a 21% drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. in April and a further 34.5% decline in May [2]. - The port fee policy, set to take effect in October, will charge $50 per net ton for Chinese-operated or owned vessels, increasing annually until it reaches $140 by 2028 [4]. - Other shipping companies, like MSC, have also expressed confidence in their ability to adapt to market disruptions, highlighting the flexibility of their operations [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The global shipping industry is experiencing a significant shift towards green technologies, with new ship orders for eco-friendly vessels expected to rise from 8.2% in 2016 to 41% by 2024, with China capturing over 70% of these orders [6]. - The U.S. attempts to revitalize its shipbuilding industry through tariffs and fees are viewed as misguided, as they may increase global shipping costs and disrupt supply chains without effectively boosting U.S. competitiveness [7].