化工日报 | 2025-05-22 聚酯减产意向影响，EG震荡下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4414元/吨（较前一交易日变动+1元/吨，幅度+0.02%），EG华东市场现货价 4516元/吨（较前一交易日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.13%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）88元/吨（环比-7元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-23美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为181元/吨（环比-48 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为74.3万吨（环比-0.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为66.4万吨（环比-2.8万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数6.4万吨，到港量偏少，但同时 聚酯工厂隐性库存下降，港口小幅去库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.9万吨，中性。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，近期仓单量大幅增加，乙二醇现货流动性收紧，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划； 需求端，近端聚酯负荷高位提升，5月聚酯月均负荷或不降反升，需求端支撑，同时美国对中国纺服关税大幅下降， 美国订单恢复发货。短期外轮到货偏少，聚 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 旺季预期 VSOPEC+增产，油价区间震荡。夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期 | | 原油 | 震荡 | 下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产持续增产，原油远月压力较大。SC | | | | 【455-475】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气不断攀升，盘面受到压制，走势偏弱；成 | | | | 本端反弹，但下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4200-4230】 | | L | 偏弱 | 现货疲软，基差走弱，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；短期出口端抢出口有一定支撑， | | | | 内贸淡季，反弹偏空。L【7180-7275】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7000-7100】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 仓单下降，4 月出口表现依旧亮眼，本周开工存上行预期，出口后市尚存不确定性，盘面 | | | | ...

2025年05月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：夜盘大幅反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随上涨 | 3 | | 铜：避险情绪升温，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏强运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然承压 | 15 | | 工业硅：弱势格局依旧 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单累库，关注市场情绪变动 | 17 | | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：钢招价格落地，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：底部震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：底部震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 26 | | 原木：弱势 ...

交产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月21日 寇帝斯 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【2011 1292号 | | | | 纪元菲 20013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月20日 | 5月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 8800 | 8950 | -150 | -1.68% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 890 | 820 | 70 | 8.54% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9700 | 9850 | -150 | -1.52% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | ddo | 920 | 70 | 7.61% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8100 | 8200 | -100 | -1.22% | | | 基差(新疆) | 990 | 870 | 120 | 13.79% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical conflicts and uncertain macro - economic factors. Brent is expected to trade in the range of $60 - 70 per barrel in the medium - term [2]. - The asphalt market is supported by cost and low inventory, with a relatively optimistic outlook during the peak season, and the BU2506 contract is expected to trade between 3400 - 3600 [7]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental outlook [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing seasonal power - generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - Natural gas prices in the US are expected to be volatile and weak, while in Europe, they are expected to be volatile and strong [14][15]. - PX and PTA are expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the third quarter, with prices expected to be well - supported [16][18]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - Short - fiber prices follow the trend of raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - The bottle - chip market has improved trading volume, but the processing fee may still be under pressure [24]. - PVC is in a short - term price - oscillation state and a long - term supply - surplus situation; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [27][28]. - Plastic and PP are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the medium and short - term [29]. - The price of soda ash is expected to decline due to cost reduction and lack of significant driving factors [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and enter the off - season, with mid - term concerns about cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34]. - Methanol is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [37]. - Urea is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory state, with a focus on policy changes [39]. - The corrugated and box - board paper market is expected to rebound due to tariff relaxation, but policy continuity and other factors need to be monitored [40][41]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, with slow demand release [43]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short - term but faces challenges in the long - term [44]. - For natural rubber, the RU 09 contract should hold short positions, and the NR 07 contract should be observed [47]. - For paper pulp, the SP 07 contract should be observed [49]. - For butadiene rubber, the BR 07 contract should be observed, and relevant spreads and options should be operated according to specific strategies [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 settled at $62.56, down $0.13 (- 0.21%); Brent2507 settled at $65.38, down $0.16 (- 0.24%); SC2507 rose 3.2 to 464.6 yuan/barrel, and 3.2 to 467.8 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Israel is reported to be preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities; the EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts lead to short - term price volatility, and the long - term supply surplus pressure is difficult to resolve [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation is strong, and medium - term is weak; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options are on hold [3][4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 closed at 3523 points (- 0.51%) at night; BU2509 closed at 3450 points (- 0.17%) at night [4]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and South China have different trends, affected by supply, demand, and crude oil prices [4][5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost support and low inventory support the price, and the peak - season outlook is optimistic [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4236 (- 0.19%) at night; PG2507 closed at 4160 (- 0.36%) at night [7]. - **Related News**: The market in South China, East China, and Shandong has different trends, affected by supply and demand [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost increases, supply rises, and demand in the off - season is weak [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and weakness [10]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 3031 (- 0.13%) at night; LU07 closed at 3525 (- 1.04%) at night [10]. - **Related News**: China's fuel oil imports increased in April; Russia's exports increased; Saudi Arabia may increase crude oil power - generation [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has increasing demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, and LU 7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high prices [13]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.427 (+ 10%); TTF closed at 36.979 (+ 4.98%); JKM closed at 12.595 (+ 5.09%) [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: US inventory accumulation is higher than average, with supply and demand changes; European prices are affected by geopolitics and supply reduction [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: US natural gas is volatile and weak, while European natural gas is volatile and strong [15]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6668 (- 1.24%) during the day and 6706 (+ 0.57%) at night [15]. - **Related News**: Northeast PX device starts maintenance; polyester production and sales are weak [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term start - up rate changes little, and the supply - demand situation is tight in the third quarter [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [16]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4732 (- 0.92%) during the day and 4750 (+ 0.38%) at night [16]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some PTA devices have start - up and restart changes [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the third - quarter supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4413 (+ 0.34%) during the day and 4416 (+ 0.07%) at night [18]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak; some MEG devices have start - up and shutdown changes [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19][20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 closed at 6506 (- 0.58%) during the day and 6506 (0%) at night [20]. - **Related News**: Polyester production and sales are weak [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with weak production and sales [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; on hold for arbitrage; on hold for options [20][21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 closed at 6022 (- 1.08%) during the day and 6028 (+ 0.10%) at night [21]. - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes are mostly lowered [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices follow raw materials, with improved trading volume but processing fees under pressure [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation and consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [24][25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices are slightly adjusted, and caustic soda prices rise slightly [25]. - **Related News**: Shandong alumina manufacturers increase the purchase price of caustic soda [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is in a short - term oscillation and long - term surplus situation; caustic soda demand has uncertainties [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC is short - sold on rebounds; caustic soda requires short - term observation and medium - term short - selling; on hold for arbitrage and options [27][28]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fall in some regions, and PP prices have slight fluctuations [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being realized, and demand is weak, so they are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices in the medium and short - term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 09 contract closes at 1280 yuan/ton (- 0.3%), and the SA9 - 1 spread is 6 yuan/ton [29]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash enterprises start maintenance, and the market is lightly adjusted [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to decrease in the short - term, but the market trades the post - maintenance surplus situation, and demand is weak [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cost reduction leads to price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 09 contract closes at 1025 yuan/ton (0.69%), and the 9 - 1 spread is - 56 yuan/ton [32]. - **Related News**: Glass prices in different regions have different trends, and the LPR is lowered [33][34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices are in a bottom - seeking trend, with supply decline and inventory pressure in the off - season [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are volatile and weak; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures close at 2269 (- 0.53%) at night [34]. - **Related News**: Northwest methanol signing volume decreases [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is high, imports will increase, and domestic supply is loose, so it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures close at 1849 (+ 0.11%) [37]. - **Related News**: Urea production and inventory changes, and export policies are discussed [38][39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [38][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term long on pullbacks; 91 positive spread layout at low prices; sell put options [39][40]. Corrugated and Box - Board Paper - **Related News**: Paper prices rise, and waste yellow - board paper prices rise [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tariff relaxation promotes export recovery and price rebound, but factors such as policy continuity need to be monitored [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Double - Offset Paper - **Related News**: The market is stable, with weak demand [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, with slow demand release and stable cost support [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided. Log - **Related News**: Log spot prices are stable, and import and arrival data change [43][44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term is expected to be stable, but the long - term faces challenges from real - estate demand and inventory [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe for single - side trading; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09, JRU10, NR07, TF08, and BR07 all decline [45][46]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: Thailand's rubber exports and Japan's inventory have changes [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the RU09 contract; observe the NR07 contract; on hold for arbitrage and options [47]. Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP07 contract closes at 5424 (+ 0.26%) [48]. - **Related News**: Two major state - owned enterprises in the pulp industry adjust management, which may enhance pricing power [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: CME wood prices and domestic paper - industry inventory have negative impacts on SP [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP07 contract; on hold for arbitrage [49]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR07 closes at 12095 (- 0.45%) [50]. - **Related News**: China's rubber tire exports increase in the first four months [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene inventory and tire exports have impacts on spreads [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR07 contract; reduce positions and observe the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract and set a stop - loss at last Friday's high [52].

Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - For PTA, the inventory de - stocking process will gradually shift to PX, and attention should be paid to opportunities to shrink the processing fee of far - month TA [2]. - For MEG, due to the unexpected reduction in oil - based supply and the short - term resilience of demand, the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to be more significant, and attention should be paid to phased positive spread opportunities [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the overall high supply and weak downstream profits mean that the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly, but the processing fee on the futures market has been compressed to a relatively low level, so it is expected to remain weak [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with a slight reduction in national visible inventory, a small rebound in the price of Thai cup lump rubber, and the easing of the trade war, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of PTA domestic spot fluctuated. The PTA processing fee generally increased, and the polyester gross profit also showed certain fluctuations. On May 19, the average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+198) [2][3]. - **Industry Conditions**: The near - end TA start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate continued to rise, the inventory continued to be de - stocked, the basis strengthened overall, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic PX start - up rate declined, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN and its structure continued to strengthen, the efficiency of isomerization and disproportionation improved, and the aromatics price spread between the US and Asia declined [3]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of MEG foreign and domestic spot fluctuated slightly. The MEG cash flow (ethylene) and profit continued to expand. On May 19, the negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4569 - 4573, and the basis was around 09(+92) [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: Near - end domestic oil - based MEG had unexpected shutdowns, coal - based MEG had planned maintenance, the start - up rate declined significantly. With less arrivals, port inventory was de - stocked, the downstream inventory level declined, the basis strengthened, and the profit and price ratio continued to expand [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the price of polyester staple fiber products fluctuated slightly. The profit of staple fiber and pure polyester yarn also showed certain changes. On May 19, the spot price was around 6645, and the market basis was around 06 - 20 [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: Near - end Shanghai Yuanfang and Jiangyin Youcai increased their production capacity, the start - up rate increased to 96.2%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory was de - stocked. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory increased, and inventory decreased month - on - month, but the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber products fluctuated. The price difference between different varieties also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of the RU main contract was +100, and the weekly change was - 20 [3]. - **Industry Conditions**: The national visible inventory decreased slightly, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the trade war situation eased [3]. Styrene - **Price and Spread Changes**: From May 13 - 19, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene, as well as styrene and its downstream products, fluctuated. The domestic profit of styrene and its downstream products also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of styrene (CFR China) was +15 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy, positive spread for the inter - period strategy, and no suggestion for the cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4475 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton, +0.34% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4573 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton, +0.11% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 224 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 74.3 tons (- 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (- 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.9 tons [1] - On the supply side, the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly recently, and several large devices such as Satellite have maintenance plans. On the demand side, the polyester load has increased at a high level in the near term, and the average monthly polyester load in May may rise instead of falling. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, US orders have resumed shipping. In the short term, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and the de - stocking range of ethylene glycol is enlarged under the support of high polyester load. There is still a possibility of liquidity tightening from June to July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4475 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton, +0.34% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4573 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton, +0.11% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 224 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data is provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load has increased at a high level in the near term, and the average monthly polyester load in May may rise instead of falling. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, and US orders have resumed shipping [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 74.3 tons (- 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (- 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.9 tons [1]

2025 年 5 月 20 日 银河能化-20250520 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-20） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2506 合约 62.69 涨 0.20 美元/桶，环比+0.32%；Brent2507 合约 65.54 涨 0.13 美元/桶，环比+0.20%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 0.3 至 461.4 元/桶，夜盘涨 4.0 至 465.4 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.72 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周一表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰将立即开始停火谈判，以解决长达三年之久的 冲突，但在两小时的通话中，他似乎并未从俄罗斯总统普京那里获得重大让步。 欧盟执委会副主席东布洛夫斯基表示，欧盟将于本周向 G7 财长提议降低目前每桶 60 美元 的俄罗斯海运石油价格上限，作为对俄罗斯新制裁方案的一部分。了解讨论情况的欧盟官 员说，欧盟将提议降至每桶 50 美元。 伊朗国家媒体周一援引伊朗副外长马吉德·塔赫特-拉万奇的话说，如果美国坚持要求伊朗 停止铀浓缩活动，伊朗和美国之间的核谈判将不会取得任何进展。 截止 5 月 13 日当周，交易商在纽约商品交易所和伦敦洲际 ...

1. Market Index Performance 1.1 Global Stock Indices - The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 331.99 points (0.784%) to 42,654.74 [2]. - The Nasdaq Index increased by 98.78 points (0.517%) to 19,211.10 [2]. - The S&P 500 climbed 41.45 points (0.701%) to 5,958.38 [2]. - The Hang Seng Index fell 108.11 points (-0.461%) to 23,345.05 [2]. 1.2 Other Macro - indicators - SHIBOR overnight rose 0.25 to 1.65, a 17.806% increase [2]. - The US Dollar Index dropped 0.244 points (-0.241%) to 100.74 [2]. - The US Dollar to RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.20 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (International) - COMEX Gold decreased by $38.60 (-1.190%) to $3,205.30 [2]. - COMEX Silver fell $0.36 (-1.098%) to $32.43 [2]. - LME Copper declined $137 (-1.431%) to $9,440.00 [2]. 1.3 Commodity Futures (Domestic) - Gold futures dropped 2.80 (-0.372%) to 749.00 [2]. - Silver futures fell 8.0 (-0.099%) to 8093.00 [2]. - Copper futures decreased 470.0 (-0.601%) to 77670.00 [2]. 1.4 Energy and Chemical Futures (Domestic) - Crude oil futures rose 6.30 (1.381%) to 462.50 [4]. - Fuel oil futures increased 19.0 (0.636%) to 3008.00 [4]. - Natural rubber futures dropped 55.0 (-0.369%) to 14850.00 [4]. 1.5 Agricultural Futures (Domestic) - Yellow soybean No.1 futures rose 17.0 (0.408%) to 4185.00 [4]. - White sugar futures fell 14.0 (-0.239%) to 5841.00 [4]. - Cotton No.1 futures dropped 10.0 (-0.075%) to 13380.00 [4]. 2. Macro - economic News 2.1 Domestic News - Central bank officials support Beijing's financial development, including promoting RMB internationalization and strengthening the Beijing Stock Exchange [7]. - China's domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19 [7]. - China - US freight volume has recovered after mutual tariff cuts, and US business cooperation is increasing [7]. - China aims to grow its data industry to 7.5 trillion yuan by 2030 and build a data infrastructure system by 2029 [8]. - China will impose anti - dumping duties on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting May 19 [8]. - China's cold - chain logistics showed growth in Q1 2025, with a 4.0% increase in total value and a 3.9% increase in revenue [8]. 2.2 International News - US President Trump urges the Fed to cut interest rates and criticizes Fed Chair Powell [9]. - US Treasury Secretary responds to Moody's downgrade of US credit rating and plans to attend a G7 meeting [9]. 3. Morning Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: Suggest trading in the 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton range, with a key support at 5830 yuan/ton [12]. - Corn: Maintain a short - selling strategy, watch for a break below 2300 yuan/ton [12]. - Eggs: Consider short - selling, with a focus on the price range and potential support [12]. - Hogs: Hold short positions, and use pre - holiday rebounds for shorting [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda: Expect stable prices in East China with local fluctuations [14]. - Urea: The market may continue high - level oscillations, with opportunities for positive spreads [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Prices rebounded but faced resistance at previous gaps [14]. - Alumina: Prices are expected to be strong, with a focus on the 3100 - 3200 yuan/ton resistance [14]. 3.4 Others - Steel products: Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels, with specific price ranges for different products [16]. - Ferroalloys: Prices are expected to oscillate at low levels [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Continue weak oscillations in the short term [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Hold short positions, watch for potential technical rebounds [16]. 3.5 Options and Finance - Stock indices: The market is likely to be volatile, with specific trading strategies for futures and options [17][18]. 4. Research Analysts 4.1 Agricultural Products - Li Na (F3060165, Z0016368) and Liu Sikui (F3033884, Z0011291) [22]. 4.2 Industrial Products - Liu Peiyang (F0290318, Z0011155), Peng Bohan (F3076814, Z0016415), and Lin Na (F03099603, Z0020978) [22]. 4.3 Options and Finance - Ding Wen (F3066473, Z0014838) and Li Weihong (F0231193, Z0017182) [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro - atmosphere has improved, and with unplanned maintenance, the futures market has rapidly rebounded. In the medium - to - long - term, the price of styrene is still dragged down by pure benzene and is expected to decline. The future market trend depends on whether there is a substantial improvement in the downstream demand for pure benzene and styrene after the tariff reduction, and whether there are new export orders for textile and clothing (end - products of caprolactam) and white goods (end - products of styrene). It also depends on the improvement of gasoline blending demand in the US and the impact of the shutdown and production cuts of its disproportionation units on China's pure benzene imports [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 7400 - 8000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 94.8% [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high and worried about price decline, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7600 - 7700 yuan/ton, and sell call options (EB2507C8000) with a 50% hedging ratio at a range of 80 - 120 [2] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and aiming to purchase according to orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7450 - 7550 yuan/ton, and sell put options (EB2507P7000) with a 75% hedging ratio at a range of 50 - 80 [2] Core Contradictions - The short - term upward movement of styrene is due to improved macro - atmosphere and unplanned maintenance, while the long - term downward pressure comes from pure benzene. Future trends depend on downstream demand improvement after tariff reduction and the situation of US gasoline blending demand and its impact on pure benzene imports [3] 利多解读 - As of May 12, 2025, the styrene port inventory in Jiangsu was 5.67 tons, a decrease of 1.18 tons (-17.23%) from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory drawdown and tightened spot liquidity [4] - The smooth progress of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks and the significant tariff reduction in the first - round consultation have improved market sentiment [4] - On Tuesday, Hengli's cracking unit had a sudden failure, leading to the early maintenance of its 720,000 - ton styrene unit for a month, intensifying the shortage of styrene. There are also rumors that Zhejiang Petrochemical's styrene unit may start maintenance a few days earlier [4] 利空解读 - A large amount of European pure benzene is expected to arrive in Northeast Asia from late May, and the pure benzene imports from May to June are expected to remain high [7] - The downstream demand for pure benzene continues to deteriorate, with many units of caprolactam and aniline in downstream industries planning maintenance in May, leading to a continuous oversupply of pure benzene [7] - The invisible inventory in the benzene industry chain remains high [7] - The downstream 3S products have limited price - increasing power, and there is no obvious improvement in terminal orders after the tariff reduction, resulting in limited enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials [8] Styrene Basis and Price Changes - The basis of East China - EB05 decreased from 43 to 39 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB06 increased from 251 to 329 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 78 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB07 increased from 413 to 486 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 73 yuan/ton; the basis of East China - EB08 increased from 530 to 598 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 68 yuan/ton [8] - The prices of various products in the styrene and related industries on May 16, 2025, showed different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week, such as the price of pure benzene in the East China market decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the price of styrene in the East China market decreased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9][10]