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四季度甲醇期货价格或偏强震荡
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-24 11:35
Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have rebounded significantly this week, ending a previous downward trend, driven by rising crude oil prices and increased coal prices, despite a still loose supply situation [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has seen a slight decrease in operating rates, with a current rate of 76.6%, down from a peak of 78% [2] - Seasonal maintenance of methanol production facilities is expected to reduce supply as winter approaches, with several plants scheduled for repairs [2] - High port inventories are suppressing prices in the East China market, while inland inventories remain at historically low levels [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Recent price movements indicate a significant drop in methanol prices due to falling crude oil prices, but a rebound has occurred driven by rising crude and coal prices [5] - The methanol market is characterized by weak current realities but expectations for improvement, with limited downside potential for prices [5] Group 3: Demand Trends - Traditional demand has softened post-October, but overall demand levels remain relatively stable due to new downstream facilities coming online [3] - The operating rates for downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde have decreased, contributing to the recent demand decline [3] Group 4: Inventory Levels - Port inventories have been accumulating but at a slowing rate, currently at 1.535 million tons, while inland inventories are at their lowest in recent years [4] - Downstream enterprises are experiencing a slight reduction in inventory levels, with expectations for replenishment in the coming weeks [4]
化工日报:主港库存下降,EG基差反弹-20251024
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. There is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to high supply, but the price has dropped to near the April low. With a modest improvement in demand, market sentiment has been boosted. Attention should be paid to issues such as ships involved in US - related matters and shipping fees. No recommendations were made for inter - period or inter - variety strategies [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures and spot markets: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton (a change of +44 yuan/ton or +1.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton (a change of +64 yuan/ton or +1.55% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton). Due to tight supply during the delivery period and the cancellation of the loading of some Iranian goods, the EG price increased, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - Production profit: According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton) [1] - Inventory: According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons). As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons, 3 tons lower than on Monday of this week and 1 ton lower than on Thursday of last week [2] - Overall fundamental supply - demand logic: On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants are still in a state of shutdown or low - load operation. However, due to some ships being involved in US - related issues, the supply will be postponed in the short term. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream polyester market has moderately improved, which has a certain boosting effect on the overall sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4095 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China EG market was 4186 yuan/ton. The spot basis in East China was 91 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 63 US dollars/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 632 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific data was provided in the text, only the chart of the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR was mentioned [21] 3.4 Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - No specific data was provided in the text, only charts related to downstream production, sales, and operating rates such as filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, etc. were mentioned [22][25] 3.5 Inventory Data - According to different data sources, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China showed different trends. As of October 23, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports in East China was 48.3 tons [2]
芳烃橡胶早报-20251024
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 00:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA partial device load increases, polyester load stabilizes, inventory slightly accumulates, and basis weakens. PX domestic operation rate drops. TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but with long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic maintenance and restarts coexist, load slightly rises, and port inventory accumulates. EG will enter a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunity near the coal - based cost [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. The overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, crude oil prices remained unchanged, PTA spot price increased by 55 to 4425, polyester profit decreased by 89 to 29, and inventory (warehouses + valid forecasts) increased by 2203 to 50945 [2]. - **Market Situation (Weekly)**: Near - term TA partial device load increases, polyester load is stable, inventory slightly accumulates, basis weakens, and spot processing fee remains low. PX domestic operation rate drops, overseas partial maintenance occurs, PXN expands, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia expands [2]. - **Outlook**: Polyester shows no unexpected performance, TA will gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage. With long - term low processing fees, additional maintenance should be monitored, and the processing fee center may gradually recover [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged, MEG external price increased by 7 to 491, MEG domestic price increased by 66 to 4173, and coal - based MEG profit increased by 66 to 1 [2]. - **Market Situation (Weekly)**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts coexist, load slightly rises, overseas maintenance occurs, port inventory accumulates slightly, basis is stable, and coal - based efficiency and price ratio contract further [2]. - **Outlook**: EG stock operation returns to a high level, and with new device production, it enters a continuous inventory accumulation stage. However, there may be negative feedback on the supply side, and attention should be paid to the selling put opportunity near the coal - based cost [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 25 to 6390, short - fiber profit remained unchanged at 235, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 10 to 8185 [2]. - **Market Situation (Weekly)**: Near - term device operation is stable, operation rate remains at 94.3%, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn slightly increases, and both raw material and finished - product inventory decrease, with efficiency slightly improving [2]. - **Outlook**: The overall operation rate and finished - product inventory of polyester yarn do not significantly increase, short - fiber exports maintain high growth, operation rate remains high with good spot efficiency, overall inventory pressure is limited, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained unchanged at 1825, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 750 to 14450, and the price of Thai cup - lump increased by 1 to 50.5. The weekly change of RU main contract price increased by 345 to 15245, and NR main contract price increased by 115 to 12430 [2]. - **Market Situation (Daily)**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [2] Styrene - **Data Changes**: From October 17 to October 23, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) increased by 100 to 6950 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The price of raw materials and some products shows certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of some products remains stable or changes slightly [5]
宏观日报:地产下游销售低位,关注能源上游价格波动-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:53
宏观日报 | 2025-10-23 地产下游销售低位,关注能源上游价格波动 中观事件总览 生产行业: 1)有记者向外交部发言人郭嘉昆提问,在与中国商务部部长王文涛会谈之后,欧盟委员会贸易和经 济安全委员谢夫乔维奇表示,欧盟和中国官员已同意在布鲁塞尔举行紧急会谈,讨论中国针对稀土的出口管制问 题。外交部能否确认这一会谈并提供更多信息?对此郭嘉昆表示,中欧经贸关系的本质是优势互补、互利共赢。 希望欧方恪守支持自由贸易、反对贸易保护主义的承诺。 服务行业:1)深圳市地方金融管理局等多部门印发《深圳市推动并购重组高质量发展行动方案(2025—2027年)》, 其中提出,力争到2027年底,辖区上市公司质量全面提升,境内外上市公司总市值突破20万亿元,培育形成千亿 级市值企业20家。行动方案支持集成电路、人工智能、新能源、生物医药等战略性新兴产业领域开展上下游并购 重组,以及加快实施国有企业战略性重组和专业化整合。 数据来源:iFind,华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游:1)黑色:玻璃价格回落较多。2)农业:棕榈油价格小幅回落。3)能源:煤炭库存回落,液化天然气价格 回升。 中游:1)化工:PX、尿素开工率保持高位。2) ...
FICC日报:美停摆创史上第二长记录,关注贵金属调整持续性-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on multiple factors including the domestic economic situation, Sino - US tariff frictions, the US government shutdown, and commodity market trends. It suggests a wait - and - see approach for commodities in the short - term, and points out potential opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the gap between strong expectations and weak reality has widened. In August, economic data showed signs of weakness with characteristics such as slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption. In September, exports were resilient, and the M2 - M1 gap reached a new low for the year. The government has proposed measures to stabilize growth, with new policy - based financial instruments totaling 500 billion yuan. China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, September's retail sales growth slowed to 3% compared to August, and industrial value - added growth accelerated to 6.5%. Housing prices in 70 cities declined in September, with second - and third - tier cities' second - hand housing prices falling by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively [1] - Sino - US tariff frictions have intensified. As the extension of Sino - US tariffs is about to expire on November 10, the US has taken multiple measures such as adding Chinese companies to the entity list and imposing tariffs on various products. China has responded with measures like export controls on rare - earth technology and charging special port fees on US ships. Both sides have agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [2] - As of October 22, the US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, becoming the second - longest in history. Economic data releases have been delayed, and the market may have underestimated the severity of the shutdown. Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed 13.9 trillion yen from last year [3] Commodity Market - For commodities, a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term due to high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted. The non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints and is boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium - term, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels last week. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals and are affected by Sino - US negotiations. For precious metals, short - term price fluctuations are risky, but there are long - term buying opportunities at low prices. On October 22, spot gold fell below $4,070 per ounce, with a decline of over $70 per ounce in 30 minutes [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - On October 21, Chinese Minister Wang Wentao had a video call with the EU Commissioner, discussing key economic and trade issues. China's rare - earth export control is a normal measure to improve the export control system [7] - The US government shutdown may last until November and exceed the 35 - day record of Trump's first term [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing economic stimulus measures centered around three pillars: anti - inflation measures, investment in growth industries, and national security [7] - US API crude oil inventory decreased last week, along with changes in other oil product inventories [7] - Russian President Putin will not attend the G20 summit in South Africa in person [7] - Spot gold prices dropped sharply on October 22 [7]
化工日报:煤制EG利润压缩,关注涉美船务费问题-20251023
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - On the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month). Driven by the news of several device operations and possible supply cuts in Saudi Arabia, the EG price rose, and the spot basis strengthened simultaneously [1] - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. More than two sets of Saudi Arabian devices are still shut down or operating at low loads, with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, there is no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [2] - The ethylene glycol port inventory is rising, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply. The price has fallen to near the April low. Attention should be paid to the shipping fee issue related to vessels involved in US - related problems [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,051 yuan/ton (up 47 yuan/ton, +1.17% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4,122 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton, +0.78% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 68 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was - 649 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - High tariffs lead to no peak - season boom, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 5.3 tons, and at the secondary ports is 6.3 tons, with the inventory expected to remain stable. The ethylene glycol balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to gradually rise [1][2]
期价创三年来新低!乙二醇估值偏低?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-22 23:23
"近期,乙二醇期价创三年来新低,估值其实基本符合市场预期。"远大能源化工有限公司烯烃事业部总 经理戴煜敏告诉期货日报记者。 截至昨日收盘,乙二醇期货主力合约报4051元/吨,处于近三年的低位区间。采访中,期货日报记者了 解到,乙二醇价格持续走弱是多重因素交织下的必然结果。 "曾经,我国乙二醇供应高度依赖进口;如今,国内产能已彻底改写这一格局。数据显示,2025年国内 乙二醇总产能突破2800万吨,进口依存度从早年的58.3%骤降至30%。"戴煜敏表示,即便日本、韩国等 地区淘汰老旧装置、转产或停产,但国内产能增长规模远超海外产能退出规模。全球存量产能叠加新增 产能投放,让乙二醇阶段性供应过剩的局面短期难以扭转。 值得注意的是,随着价格大幅走低,市场对乙二醇估值是否偏低的争论也越来越激烈——有人认为当前 估值已到价值投资区间,有人却觉得这才是真实价值。 "从绝对价格看,现在乙二醇价格已处于历史低位,有价值投资的潜力,但从加工利润来看,市场分歧 特别明显。"戴煜敏解释说,中东、北美产区的装置凭借原料价格低的优势,仍有较强竞争力;国内后 期新建的煤制乙二醇装置,依托煤炭资源优势,也能维持一定利润。这种成本分化现象, ...
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251022
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 06:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The weakness of polyolefins was due to the drag of crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. With the continuation of the China-US game, crude oil was under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices fluctuated passively with the cost side, and market sentiment was cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline speed might slow down [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6883, 6917, and 6952 respectively, with changes of 4, -4, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.06%, -0.06%, and 0.00%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6583, 6627, and 6647, with changes of 18, 9, and -3 and percentage changes of 0.27%, 0.14%, and -0.05% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL's January, May, and September contracts were 286298, 25219, and 168, and the open interests were 561965, 63064, and 850, with changes of -135, 1569, and 20. For PP, the trading volumes were 318981, 27402, and 831, and the open interests were 649100, 122304, and 4736, with changes of -5749, 2797, and 215 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL's 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were -34, -35, and 69, compared with previous values of -42, -31, and 73. For PP, the current spreads were -44, -20, and 64, compared with previous values of -53, -32, and 85 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2270 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 522 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450, 6850 - 7150, and 7100 - 7500. For PP, the price ranges were 6450 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6450 - 6600 [2] News - On Tuesday (October 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.82 per barrel, up $0.30 or 0.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.99 - $58.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.32 per barrel, up $0.31 or 0.51%, with a trading range of $60.35 - $62.09 [2]
化工日报:高供应下乙二醇延续弱势-20251022
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:27
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The EG main contract closed at 4004 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton, +0.02% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4090 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton, -0.10% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 74 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -68 US dollars/ton (-4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -627 yuan/ton (-29 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 57.9 tons (+3.8 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (+5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.5 tons, and port inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 5.3 tons and at the secondary ports are 6.3 tons, and inventories are expected to remain stable [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol production load is operating at a high level, overseas supply losses are still significant, and there are still more than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants in a shutdown or low - load operation state with little expected change. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, the peak season is not prosperous, and the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The overall EG balance sheet faces significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol port inventories are expected to gradually rise [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. As ethylene glycol port inventories rise, there is significant pressure to accumulate inventory under high supply [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2601 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the ethylene glycol spot price in East China and its basis [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of ethylene - made EG, coal - made syngas EG, and other production methods, as well as the total load and syngas - made load of ethylene glycol [1][10][16]. International Price Difference - It provides the international price difference between US FOB and Chinese CFR for ethylene glycol [19]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It includes the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [20][21][24]. Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of ethylene glycol at ports in East China, including overall port inventories, inventories at specific ports like Zhangjiagang and Ningbo, and the raw material inventory days of Chinese polyester factories and the daily outbound volume at ports in East China [28][30][37].
化工日报:主港延续累库,EG承压运行-20251021
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main port continues to accumulate inventory, and EG is under pressure. The EG main contract closed at 4003 yuan/ton, the EG spot price in the East China market was 4094 yuan/ton, and the EG East China spot basis was 72 yuan/ton. The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -64 US dollars/ton, and that of coal - made syngas EG was -599 yuan/ton. The MEG inventory in the East China main port was 57.9 tons according to CCF and 49.3 tons according to Longzhong, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. [1] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. On the demand side, due to high tariffs, there is no peak - season effect, and the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. The EG balance sheet has a large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to gradually rise. [2] - For the strategy, for the single - side, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell and hedge at high prices. For the inter - period, conduct an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605. There is no strategy for the inter - variety. [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract closed at 4003 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4094 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) at 72 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -64 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was -599 yuan/ton (down 54 yuan/ton month - on - month). [1] International Price Difference No specific data or analysis content provided. Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - High tariffs lead to no peak - season effect, the increase in polyester load is limited, but there is still rigid demand. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 57.9 tons (up 3.8 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 49.3 tons (up 5.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 10.5 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 5.3 tons, and that at the secondary port is 6.3 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to gradually rise in the fourth quarter. [1][2]