Core Viewpoint - A-shares are expected to experience a "first oscillation, then upward" trend in the second half of the year, with structural opportunities highlighted in technology growth and dividend assets [1][2][3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will see a continuous upward adjustment in the second half, driven by a weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and improved liquidity [2] - The market is expected to present a "stable index, structural bull" scenario, with significant opportunities for value re-evaluation in technology and emerging consumption sectors [2] - The overall liquidity environment is anticipated to improve, supporting a gradual recovery in the market's fundamentals [3] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to perform well include stable assets and growth-oriented technology assets, with a focus on transportation, consumer goods, publishing, gaming, and high ROE sectors [4] - Growth assets are likely to center around military industry, pharmaceuticals, communications, gaming, and AI technologies [4] - Specific investment opportunities include domestic consumption sectors, technology growth in AI and robotics, and industries benefiting from cost improvements [5] Analyst Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on five areas: domestic consumption, technology growth, cost-improved industries, structural opportunities from overseas expansion, and stable dividend-paying assets [5] - Emphasis is placed on technology sectors marked by innovation and strategic significance, as well as consumer services and new consumption trends [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 风险因子：1）微盘股踩踏；2）美元流动性恶化；3）期权市场流动 性不及预期；4）关税超预期；5）供给超预期；6）货币宽松超预期 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-01 股市情绪偏暖，债市延续震荡 股指期货：情绪偏暖，多空良性换⼿ 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：短期预计债市延续震荡 股指期货方面，情绪偏暖，多空良性换手。大盘股资金拥挤后回撤， 伴随券商板块换手率降低，非银、银行、交运领跌，而资金外流至强热点 小盘股，军工、TMT行业领涨，出现行情扩散。同时，IM出现多空良性换 手，当日IM持仓大降超1.9万手，配合日内贴水走阔，特别是尾盘15分钟 贴水迅速加深，应是上周追涨的多单逐步止盈，且小盘股超额收益改善， 中性策略配合增加对冲空单持仓。另外，地缘风险缓和、关税节点后延， 宏观风险平息，而中报预告临近，市场转向关注内部盈利改善，万得预增 指数创新高。情绪偏暖环境下，保留多头配置，操作上，继续配置IM多 单。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。期权方面，虽然情绪指标跟随标的上 行，但期权市场成交额出现明显回落，交易流动性不及预期。在流动性低 迷的衍 ...

信达证券 2025 年 7 月"十大金股"组合 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 30 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor 策略首席分析师 ] 职业编号：S1500521060001 邮箱：fanjituo@cindasc.com 刘旺 传媒互联网联席首席分析师 职业编号：S1500522110006 邮箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 程丽丽 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 李春驰 ...

2025 年 06 月 29 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20250621-20250627） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 (8621)23297818× fengyu@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日） ✓ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证 A 股整体 PE 为 19.2 倍，处于历史 74%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 A 股策略周思考 证券研究报告 上证攻坚新高后，怎么看？ 市场思考：如何看待指数后续节奏？ 1）由于整体市场的显著放量，上周小盘拥挤度出现明显下行。指标从 65% 下行至 62.4%，目前的幅度已经与 25 年 4 月比较接近，1 月幅度则更大。 2）前两次后续市场出现调整的背景是市场处于成交额减量+小盘拥挤度上 行，表现在市场出现调整之前先出现了缩圈至小盘的现象，而上周以前，市 场存量稳定。这一轮从 4 月初挖坑以后开始上行，但期间成交额（MA20） 均处于 1.2 万亿左右的相对低位，在修复过程中并没有出现过热的情况。另 外，本轮从 4 月初至今的行情并没有过热，融资余额增幅较小。 3）复盘 2014 年，14 年上半年小盘持续跑赢大盘，像沪深 300 这类的大盘 指数的收盘价在 14 年的 3-6 月份创 2013 年以来的新低，小盘表现更强的 这个特征和现在相似。到了 14 年下半年，在 14 年 7 月-8 月上旬和 14 年 11 月-12 月也出现了【小盘拥挤度下行】+【成交额上行】这个组合，全 A 指数上行新高。另外，期间在 14 年 8 月下旬-10 月又回到了小盘风 ...

Group 1 - The construction of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge has significantly shortened travel time between Shenzhen and Zhongshan to half an hour, facilitating the accelerated flow of talent, capital, and technology within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] - New industrial collaboration models such as "Shenzhen headquarters + Zhongshan manufacturing" and "Shenzhen R&D + Zhongshan transformation" are emerging, indicating a robust integration of industries between the two cities [2] - The "Bay Area Standards" have reached a total of 235 items as of May this year, reflecting the continuous improvement in market integration levels among Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao [3] Group 2 - The Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge has recorded over 3 million passengers since its opening, highlighting its role in enhancing cross-city public transport [1] - The local government in Zhongshan has implemented over 300 administrative service items to facilitate cross-city operations for Shenzhen enterprises, promoting a seamless business environment [2] - The ongoing development of cross-river and cross-sea channels in the Greater Bay Area is contributing to the formation of a "railway-based Greater Bay Area," enhancing connectivity and convenience for residents [3]

0:00 开年前两个月，科技板块在DeepSeek的带动下高歌猛进的同时，红利板块却表现低迷，二者呈现出明 显的"跷跷板效应"。 都说，科技是"矛"，红利是"盾"。 那么问题来了：对于普通投资者来说，是该押注"锐不可当"的科技股，还是抱紧"稳如磐石"的红利股 呢？ 投资市场中，科技和红利两个板块有时候也会呈现出跷跷板行情，即两类资产走势相反。 那么两者之间为什么会出现"跷跷板效应"呢？ 主要原因在于科技和红利，资产类别上有根本差异。 "小孩子才做选择题，成年人全都要。" 做投资最痛苦的就是两头挨打，单押一方，可能不是最佳选择！ "红利+科技"的"哑铃组合"或许能让你在A股风格切换中稳住胜局。 本期视频，我们就聊聊：科技与红利的"跷跷板效应"，以及，为什么"哑铃策略"可能是普通人应对市场 风格轮动的黄金武器。 我们小时候应该都玩过跷跷板，一头落下去，另一头就会抬起来。 第一种做法：有能力的投资者可以进行轮动操作；若没有十足把握，就坚守自己的能力圈，投资 自己最熟悉的板块； 其次，你也可以通过建立"红利+科技"的"哑铃组合"来拥抱这种"不确定性"。 这两类资产分别是高风险资产、低风险资产的典型代表，对应的投资者偏 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a significant decline, with many stocks closing in the red, particularly in the banking sector [1][5]. Insurance Sector - China Pacific Insurance had a market capitalization of 387.40 billion, with a trading volume of 1.207 billion, experiencing a decrease of 0.68 (-1.81%) [3]. - China Life Insurance had a market capitalization of 355.57 billion, with a trading volume of 3.833 billion, down by 0.62 (-1.08%) [3]. - Ping An Insurance reported a market capitalization of 1,037.26 billion, with a trading volume of 10.68 billion, declining by 0.24 (-2.67%) [3]. Alcohol Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,762.56 billion, with a trading volume of 54.04 billion, down by 3.19 (-1.78%) [3]. - Wuliangye Yibin reported a market capitalization of 215.28 billion, with a trading volume of 19.14 billion, decreasing by 0.55 (-0.46%) [3]. - Shanxi Fenjiu had a market capitalization of 462.61 billion, with a trading volume of 9.74 billion, down by 16.91 (-1.19%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Northern Huachuang had a market capitalization of 232.26 billion, with a trading volume of 17.24 billion, decreasing by 3.40 (-0.78%) [3]. - Cambricon Technologies reported a market capitalization of 244.42 billion, with a trading volume of 48.08 billion, down by 25.00 (-4.10%) [3]. - Haiguang Information had a market capitalization of 323.08 billion, with a trading volume of 23.89 billion, declining by 2.75 (-1.94%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD had a market capitalization of 282.79 billion, with a trading volume of 46.33 billion, down by 3.20 (-0.95%) [3]. - Great Wall Motors reported a market capitalization of 1,836.54 billion, with a trading volume of 3.08 billion, remaining unchanged [3]. - Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had a market capitalization of 182.56 billion, with a trading volume of 6.01 billion, down by 0.07 (-1.20%) [3]. Oil and Shipping Sector - China COSCO Shipping had a market capitalization of 686.25 billion, with a trading volume of 7.22 billion, down by 0.12 (-1.37%) [3]. - Sinopec reported a market capitalization of 1,577.64 billion, with a trading volume of 10.47 billion, increasing by 0.04 (+0.27%) [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation had a market capitalization of 232.97 billion, with a trading volume of 8.30 billion, down by 0.05 (-0.88%) [3]. Coal Industry - China Shenhua Energy had a market capitalization of 793.35 billion, with a trading volume of 59.85 billion, down by 0.11 (-0.27%) [3]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry reported a market capitalization of 187.11 billion, with a trading volume of 9.74 billion, down by 1.80 (-0.71%) [3]. - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) had a market capitalization of 1,144.34 billion, with a trading volume of 7.75 billion, increasing by 0.23 (+1.21%) [3]. Other Sectors - China Nuclear Power had a market capitalization of 192.10 billion, with a trading volume of 4.50 billion, down by 0.89 (-2.86%) [4]. - Yangtze Power reported a market capitalization of 739.43 billion, with a trading volume of 6.81 billion, down by 0.04 (-0.43%) [4]. - Dongfang Fortune had a market capitalization of 364.13 billion, with a trading volume of 194.29 billion, down by 0.09 (-0.39%) [4].

金十图示：2025年06月27日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行股多数飘绿，保险、酿酒、半导体等多个 板块全线下跌 -0.14(-2.4/%) -0.20(-2.28%) -0.08(-1.8/90) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 12,000 中国人保 ■ 3909.40亿市值 3596.08亿市值 10452.67亿市值 6.80亿成交额 21.21亿成交额 6.52亿成交额 37.38 57.40 8.84 -0.26(-0.69%) -0.18(-0.31%) -0.16(-1.78%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 17781.48亿市值 2177.51亿市值 4645.90亿市值 18.80亿成交额 4.15亿成交额 9.29亿成交额 119.69 1415.50 178.49 -4.50(-0.32%) -1.16(-0.65%) -0.04(-0.03%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2335.32亿市值 2495.31亿市值 3267.55亿市值 8.54亿成交额 31.06亿成交额 13.67亿成交额 597.74 140.58 436.9 ...

金十图示：2025年06月26日（周四）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行股午后上涨，普遍飘红，保险股维持跌势 保险 中国太保 队 中国人保 中国平安 ■ 3980.16亿市值 3621.10亿市值 10485.45亿市值 10.43亿成交额 28.89亿成交额 7.30亿成交额 57.58 37.64 9.00 -0.40(-1.05%) -0.30(-0.52%) -0.13(-1.42%) 酸酒行业 XD贵州茅 山西汾酒 五粮液 17838.01亿市值 2191.67亿市值 4647.45亿市值 19.97亿成交额 49.56亿成交额 10.69亿成交额 179.65 119.73 1420.00 +0.85(+0.48%) -0.45(-0.37%) +11.74(+0.83%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2340.72亿市值 2548.57亿市值 3294.75亿市值 14.13亿成交额 55.90亿成交额 42.74亿成交额 610.50 141.75 437.91 +3.76(+2.72%) -3.67(-0.83%) -0.61(-0.10%) 汽车整车 ...