气势如虹，马上好像就要反包了。A股7月还有调整吗？和讯投顾张平分析，今天A股启动是为什么带动 的？一方面我们都知道的基建，但是基建带动了什么？落后的去产能对不对？今天从锂资源的锂矿到煤 矿，到你们几乎能看到的所有矿全都在动，而且今天的煤炭期货价格也是一路长虹，这可不是说着玩 的，各位这是期货，其现随其动，也就是说现货也在涨，这就是为什么你看到这么多资源类上涨的原 因，我看他们有人归因为这个固态电池什么的，固态电池也带不起来这个煤炭嘛对吧？你不可能说电动 车烧煤对吗？它不是，它是所有的资源类全体。所以老鹰之前和大家讲到的资源类现在已经开始动起来 了。 第二个赛欧开始是不是又出主升了？以前大家对创新药没什么兴趣，你看这波创新药又来了，而且有一 些创新药已经新高了，值得留意对吗？第三个，更加值得我们留意的。有人说踏空了怎么办？新热点， 你看是不是落后淘汰去产能，啊这个东西你别小看，往往期货来移动就容易带动现货动现货动，实际上 公司不就内在价值不就提升了吗？对吧？原来3000块钱一吨，假如说对吗？你这6000块钱一吨了，你自 然而然你的你公司股价它就不可能是原来那个价格了。这就是为什么很多股票现在在这个阶段能上涨的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant developments surrounding the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, highlighting its strategic importance and the involvement of China Electric Power Construction Group (China Electric Power) in its construction [3][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project, located in Linzhi City, Tibet, involves the construction of five cascade power stations with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - The project aims to primarily supply electricity for external consumption while also addressing local needs in Tibet [1]. Group 2: Company Involvement - China Electric Power, as a key participant in the project, emphasizes its commitment to high-quality construction and strategic responsibility, viewing the project as a "century strategic project" with significant national implications [3][4]. - The company has been involved in geological surveys, planning, and feasibility studies for over 40 years, contributing to the project's approval [3]. Group 3: Market Reaction - The A-share market has seen a surge in interest related to the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with several listed companies experiencing stock price increases due to their connections to the project [6][8]. - Companies such as Hainan Huatie and SuperMap Software have announced their involvement in preliminary works related to the project, further fueling market speculation [6]. Group 4: Risk and Clarifications - Several companies, including those in the civil explosives and cement sectors, have issued announcements to clarify their positions and mitigate speculative trading risks, indicating that their involvement in the project is uncertain [8][11]. - Companies like JinDun and Dayu Water Saving have highlighted that while they are monitoring the project, the bidding process has not yet commenced, and their current business does not directly involve the project [10][12].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.01% to 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.37%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 1.62% at 25538.07 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 2.48% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.82%[1] - The total trading volume in Hong Kong surged to 3330.666 million HKD[1] Trade and Tariff Developments - Trump indicated that the reciprocal tariff rates would range from 15% to 50%, with most EU products expected to have a tariff rate set at 15%[1][15] - The EU and the US are reportedly moving towards a trade agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on most products[15] Corporate Earnings and Forecasts - Tesla reported a 12% decline in revenue to 22.5 billion USD, marking the largest quarterly drop in at least a decade, with adjusted earnings per share at 0.40 USD, slightly below analyst expectations[15] - Tesla's gross margin remains above average expectations, indicating resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges[15] International Relations - Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet with EU leaders in Beijing, with discussions expected to focus on climate cooperation, although no joint statement is planned[15] - The meeting highlights ongoing tensions and divisions between China and the EU, despite previous signs of thawing relations[15]

周期板块估值处于低位 近期政策面、大工程"暖风"齐吹，一举点燃了A股周期板块压抑已久的热情。宝晓辉视其为"巨大的利 好"：国家将综合整治"内卷式竞争"提升至战略高度，推动落后产能有序退出，这套组合拳直指优化供 需关系与提升商品价格，最终有望转化为企业业绩与市值的双重支撑。此外，经济基本面的背书同样有 力，稳中向好的经济复苏态势有望提振大宗商品需求。 章诗颖表示，A股周期板块近期的强势反弹，既源于供给侧改革预期升温，更得益于"相关板块整体估 值处于历史低位，机构持有筹码较少"的情况。 前述上海中型私募基金经理从资金博弈角度认同这一观点：上半年新消费、创新药、红利等板块的行情 已充分演绎，机构"配置纠偏"初步完成。而上游资源、新能源、地产等长期被冷落的领域，在"反内 卷、优供给及大型水电工程"等催化剂作用下，极易产生"升温效应"。 ● 本报记者 王辉 上周以来，国内商品期货市场多个工业品价格急速拉升，基建、有色、钢铁、建材等板块在A股市场轮 番领涨。推动力来自政策端与消息面的双重刺激：工信部宣布将实施新一轮十大重点行业稳增长工作方 案，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能；同时，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式举行，点 ...

新题材水电今天如昨天复盘视频提示要继续面临分歧，只不过昨天的后排分歧仍然有资金会回流，但是 今天的分歧到尾盘是加剧的。和讯投顾李嘉乐分析，例如像氧化能建等尾盘炸板，昨天去了一进二属于 后排，就提示大家后排今天冲高不能继续向上，而今天也是进一步再往前排的核心去切，关注二进三次 前排核心今天也都开了，所以明天就是对前排核心的考验，预计也都会开板。选票上乐乐提示大家尽量 偏好换手，谨防一字板，市值也要偏好看小，这些是根本原因。今天去后排的肯定是大面，但是明天仍 然有部分个股有修复预期。接下来乐乐结合盘面来跟大家说说我的理解。 那接下来分歧之后的修复，正常来说的话，明天还是先看弱修复预期。因为今天水电的分歧资金有尝试 做外切题材，但是其实整体意愿不高，所以说明资金还是愿意在该题材里面方向打转。所以说题材也不 能说结束，但是到底资金会选择谁去做反包跟修复那这一块来讲的话是偏随机的。 为什么这样说？呢首先反内卷方向相关的方向有像光伏、啊钢铁、基建、水泥、这个房地产等等都是处 在行业的停滞阶段，但是上面有意贯彻实施反内卷，但是逻辑认可，但是看不到行业的转折点，也就是 需要找到困境反转的情绪起爆点，正好结合了这个新题材水电， ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials ETF (159745) and infrastructure ETF (159619) experienced significant declines of 5.61% and 4.51% respectively, attributed to profit-taking and the lack of concrete policy implementation [1][5]. Market Performance - The construction materials ETF closed at a drop of 5.61%, while the infrastructure ETF closed down 4.51% [1][3]. - The trading volume for the infrastructure ETF was 2.61 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 60.85% [3]. Reasons for Decline - The decline is linked to the absence of policy rollout, with prior market enthusiasm leading to profit-taking by investors [5]. - The market had previously reacted positively to expectations surrounding anti-involution policies and major project investments, but the actual impact of the Yajiang Hydropower project on the construction and materials sectors remains to be seen [5]. Future Outlook - Short-term volatility is expected, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated growth in infrastructure investment and anti-involution policies [6]. - The total investment for the Yajiang downstream hydropower project is projected at 1.2 trillion CNY, which is expected to gradually stimulate demand across various sectors, including cement and construction materials [6]. - Fixed asset investment in China is projected to reach 24.87 trillion CNY in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [6]. Policy and Investment Trends - The implementation of more proactive macro policies is expected to support steady growth in infrastructure investment [7]. - The construction materials sector has seen a bottoming out of profits in various sub-industries, indicating potential recovery [7][8]. - Upcoming policies aimed at urban renewal and housing improvements are likely to boost demand for construction materials [7]. Investment Opportunities - The construction materials ETF (159745) is highlighted as a leading option, tracking the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index, which includes segments like cement and glass [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the potential for recovery in the construction materials sector, with 2025 anticipated as a pivotal year for profit restoration [8].

【导读】沪指盘中突破3600点，基金公司解读后市投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 近期，A股市场表现强劲。沪指自7月9日成功突破3500点后，连续9个交易日稳守 这一 关 口，且不断刷新年内高点。 7 月2 3 日 ，沪指、上证50 指数 等盘中突破3600、2800点，续写新篇章。 本轮指数突破有何独特之处？后续走势将如何展开？ 在基金公司看来，当前市场或仍处于上涨趋势中，不能轻易言顶。与以往相比，此次行情基 础更为扎实，市 场赚钱效应有望逐步扩散。 多因素驱动 此次行情基础更为扎实 业内认为，近期市场的上涨是多重利好因素共同推动的结果。 对于近期的上涨，长城基金认为有几个驱动因素：一是 " 反内卷 " 政策不断深化。 从 去年7 月 中央 政治局会议首次提到 " 反内卷 " 到现在已有一年时间，范围不断扩大，从上游资源 品、"新三样"到快递、航空等，而不是像上一轮供给侧改革主要集中在传统行业的去产能。 " 反内卷 " 政策的推出及执行，有望上修PPI和A股盈利预期。 二是世界级超级工程—总投资达1.2万亿元的雅鲁藏布江下游水电项目宣布开工，对顺周期板 块的情绪拉动较大，一定程度上 可 支撑指数上行 ...

GDP Performance - In Q2, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while nominal GDP growth was only 3.9%, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand[3] - The deflator index further expanded to -1.3%, highlighting weak price levels[3] Production Insights - Industrial value-added growth was 6.8% in June, with a Q2 average of 6.4%, driven by strong exports[14] - The service sector maintained stable growth, with a cumulative production index increase of 5.9%[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in Q2, down 1.4 percentage points from Q1[22] - Infrastructure investment growth was 8.9%, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of -12.9% in June, with a cumulative decline of -11.2%[24] Consumption Patterns - Retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q2, a decrease from Q1, with durable goods consumption supported by "old-for-new" policies[39] - Restaurant consumption weakened significantly, with June's growth plummeting to 0.9%[39] Outlook and Policy Recommendations - To meet the annual GDP target of 5%, a growth rate of at least 4.7% is required in the second half of the year[42] - Continued policy support is essential to boost domestic demand, particularly in real estate and manufacturing sectors[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and unexpected changes in overseas policies[43]

国信证券(香港)·资讯日报 股票市场概览 数据日期：2025 年 7 月 22 日 资料来源：万得，国信证券（香港）财富研 JING YI, CFA, CPA SFC CE No.: BRQ314 +852 2899 6747 jessiejing@guosen.com.cn 注：以上数据均来官方披露、公司资料，国信证券（香港）研究部整理，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及其项下所有内容。 日本日经 225 39,819 (0.11) (0.30) 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 | 2025 年 7 月 | 23 日 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资讯日报 | | | | | 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | | | | | 指数 | 收市价 | | 升跌% | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,130 | 0.54 | 25.27 | | 恒生国企 | 9,076 | 0.39 | 24.50 | | 恒生科技 | 5,607 | 0.38 | 25.49 | | 美国道琼斯 | 44,502 | 0.40 | 4.60 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,3 ...

| 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/7/23 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 2 • 美股個別發展｜美股周二個別發展，道指輕微高後，升幅一 度擴大；標指再創歷史新高 • 美債息回落 ｜美國10年期債息一度回落5.2個基點，至 4.327厘 • AI趨勢持續｜人工智能(AI)發展趨勢將持續，標指的基本因 素較25年前科網熱潮時更強健 • 標指創新高｜SPY持續受資金追捧，可逢低吸納 • 波動率下降｜收益增強型產品如雪球具吸引力 • 利率見頂預期｜掛鈎美債利率的反向票據具短線部署價值 永豐金證券亞洲研究部全球新聞概要 重點國際新聞 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 3 • 恒指企穩25000關，刷新3年8個月高位，本地零售股罕有落鑊。北水則持續南下，年初至 ...